The Brookings Institution hosted this 90 minute forum. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to brookings. Thank you for making some time for discussions on africa issues. Coming to brookings and coming to brookings on this day right smack in the middle when many people are at the beach. We would like to welcome you. By ae joined as well professor at st. Lawrence university, the university of which we frequently Work Together on africa issues, which also runs an Excellent Program and nairobi that just celebrated its 45th anniversary. Matt was there doing research and bringing some alumni along on a trip. Finally, joining the panel is john from freedom house. Africas with their program and previously worked in the Obama Administrations policy planning staff. I would like to thank john for an article he coauthored in the Current Issue of Foreign Affairs on some of the promising Democratic Movement in africa. We added kenya and tanzania to the list, along with south africa demo cap africa, democratic republic of congo. Also, nigeria and ethiopia. Between these six countries, we have roughly half of africas population represented and frankly, a fair amount of hopefulness. Sayody is going to b everything is going to be great, but we thought we would bring together a consensual framework. Even though they all struggle and any progress is still fragile. I will stop and hand the baton to suzanne maloney, our Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program and one of the countrys top iran experts. ,ran is not to far from africa so she things about this content herself and she will be our moderator today. Moderator thank you for coming on a monday morning in august. I look forward to a really interesting and inspiring conversation. I would like to start with the professor. If you could give us a kind of historical sense, situate this moment over the course of history. Where do we stand, particularly if you might focus on kenya . Thank you. Thanks, mike. Thanks for inviting me. When i was thinking about this event and we think of African Security product kind of broadly defined across the continent. I definitely want to emphasize that there is not a onesizefitsall approach. We have to think about local histories, cultural context, and even the colonial legacy 50 years removed in most places from independence. Security depends on good governance, accountability, protection of human rights, access to basic services, and a growing and inclusive economy. Is a very complex topic, even if we are thinking about these six countries or any one of them individually. If we think about african governance, let me just say a little bit about that historically. Defies governance often it sort of conventional thinking on democracy where we have seen gains across the continent without the precondition of being a middle income country. Voter turnout and enthusiasm for the electoral process remains very high across the continent. It is important for us to realize these are relatively young democracies in this context. Most african states did not have their First National election until the 1950s, some not even until the 1990s. If we think about the last 50 years or so, we can think about early60s and 1970s, 1970s as this sort of moment of hope and optimism, but one that often took an authoritarian turn, where cold war politics backed up dictatorial rule. A lot of nationalist leaders criminalized dissent as being unpatriotic. The end of the cold war, as many of you know, sparked political revitalization across the continent. We have seen a little bit of a backslide and a lot of places. And a lot of the democratic gains in the last 10 years or so have been uneven across the continent. Im sure my colleagues will talk about this. If i think about some of the major issues framing a love these debates, one of which is about decentralization of political power, whether local government, National Government, the executive branch has say. Often, that has focused on a winner take all approach and african elections, which has been a recipe for potential conflict. Sometimes we focus too much on elections and dont necessarily think about institutions. One of the things many of us will talk about is the role institutions play. How african states deal with dissent and marginalization in their communities across their countries is also quite important. Youth voices, womens voices, ethnic and religious minorities are important to discuss. Thinking about justice and reconciliation questions, particularly in close conflict situations, have often framed how issues of insecurity have been persistent in some areas across the continent. Finally, before i get to kenya, thinking about the role that regional bodies play, the African Union, first and foremost. , how theyonal bodies play in managg regial issues and security within the continent and not just from outside forces. If we think about kenya, an area where i do most of my work and that mike said our institution has a longstanding Campus Program there. The external threat, so if you read the press, much of the external threat comes from issues developing in ,elationship to somalia particularly the Insurgent Group that formed in 2006 and since 2011, the Kenyan Military has had an operation Southern Somalia and joined the amazon peacekeeping mission in the region. The has not quelled crossborder issues that sparked the invasion of Kenyan Security forces into Southern Somalia. Since 2011, there have been more than 250 attacks in the country that can be attributed to the Insurgent Group, including several highprofile ones that many of you might know. The Westgate Mall attack in 2013, and most notably and recently, the january attack at the hotel in nairobi, which marked the third anniversary of kenyas Largest Military defeat outside the country. If we think about this from on external threat, it is important for us to think about issues of marginalization. The northeastern part of the country has long been sort of marginalized on issues of local development, often referred to as the Northern Frontier district. From the cold colonial days, it was a backwater for National Level investment, infrastructure, education. All of these things have contributed to many of these local populations filling quite marginalized and ripe for recruitment issues with the Insurgent Group. That issues of how kenya has reacted and dealt with the security question has been very heavyhanded. One scholar noted it was like killing a mosquito with a hammer , where extrajudicial violence often targeting somali populations indiscriminately, and refugee populations that are protected in the u. N. Regular should. Threats to close a refugee camp in 2016 have been quite problematic. We can get into some of those questions and more issues in complexity as we talk about and complexities as we talk about. Governance and internal division certainly framing a lot of the security questions regionally, but also specifically to kenya. Electoral violence. Three of the last six democratic elections in kenya since 1991 have been marked by Political Violence. That is often because kenyan elections have been have often been a winner take all approach. If we think about Political Violence in kenya, i think it is important for us to talk not just about reductive terms like at the new city, but think about ethnicity, but also think about larger questions. Just as one tidbit on that, if you look at voting analysis from 2013, the opposition candidate 8 mosta won the top uneven counties in the country and 68 67 of the poorest region in the country. What are the bright spots . Kenya has a robust Civil Society, relative wheat free press, but a musty relatively free press, but i history of criminalizing a history of criminalizing dissent. China now owns more than 20 of kenyas foreign debt. Much of that is fueling the infrastructure revolution in kenya and lots of debates about the cost of than the future. A lot of debates are about the evolution of power, trying to check the historic power of the presidency in kenya. These debates are quite healthy. Those of us who study kenyan politics are quite pleased with whats happening at the local level. Peoples interest in races for governor or members of county assemblies holding checks and balances at the local level rather than at the National Level. If we look at the latest attack that happened in january of 2019, Kenyan Security forces responded in ways that were much more effective in dealing with ,hat attack if we compare it to for instance, the Westgate Hotel attack in 2013. Within minutes of that attack severe,ng, albeit quite the Kenyan Security forces were on the ground and able to successfully evacuate more than 700 people from that region and that area of the city. I think there is a lot to say. If we think about this, we are not just talking about kenya, we are talking about it in a continental context. How has this affected kenyas role in the region . Kenya is a major player in east africa. It has been the. Center of governance and business this history of both violence, dealing with dissent, dealing with threats from terrorism, i think have hindered kenyas ability to interact and provide any sort of model. Not being outspoken, for instance, about checking authoritarian rule in rwanda, uganda, and most recently in. Tanzania. I think some of that is at the heart of making it difficult for kenya to maintain itself as a regional player and the Regional Center for east africa. I will stop and let my colleagues fill in. Senator blumenthal i am going to ask moderator i am going to ask the David Rubenstein fellow to speak to the question of both nigeria and to the extent that you are willing to able to fit it in in early moments, also south africa, two countries experiencing successful, interesting domestic internal politics. Excellent. Thank you very much. Want to speak about the broader trends on the continent. That many of the critical factors affecting the and politicalic performance of the continent include the rapid urbanization and population growth. By 2030, africa will have 1. 7 billion people, which is extremely important, and about 80 of the growth will be in cities. , knowing has an impact that in the 1990s, for example, Popular Mobilization in major cities. The second factor, the Digital Transformation. It is critical because we have seen that in countries such as tunisia and egypt. Occursent transition after mobilization on social media. Is extremely important. Very simply, in the mid1990s, new york city had , where now africa has 100 million mobile phone subscribers. Another factor is the rapid industrialization and Industries Without Smokestacks in the Industries Without Smokestacks. Important, because more than 60 of the african population is below the age of 30. Important shortage in terms of employment. Unemployment is very high. We have a couple of [indiscernible] which facilitate or worsen political stability. Mobilization in south africa, where people were not happy with Subsaharan Africans coming for work. There is also democratic backsliding. I think the continent has made a lot of progress from the 1990s, to the 2010 about, but you have many countries, given if they were not democracies, which have regressed in terms of political rights. I think, for example, of ntries such as those factors are important because they are not just connected to how countries are run. In some cases, like in the case they have contributed to erate their extremely important. , i will beigeria speaking about the recent election and the prospect of the recent election. Everybody knows the incumbent president has won elections, not just at the National Level, but governor tori gubernatorial. Most african countries are what high population density, which means even in a high democratic system, the president can function in a way not very different from some authoritarian regimes. Quiteecks and balance is muted. Its almost like the winner takes all. The president will be democratic elected, but however, the way things are, in the way of running the country, the parliament has a limited impact. The development in kenya has been very interesting. Annual election was held after the contest. The first was to highlight the president. The Political Party of the president has won election at all the levels, which means the level of checks and balances is quite limited. 4 oraps, let me speak about 6 key trends in nigeria, why nigeria is extreme important. Extremely important. Gdp ofabout 20 of the the continent and about 75 of the gdp of the west african region. Nigeria is just too big to ignore. Second point is also related to extreme poverty. Nigeria has about 94 Million People living below extreme poverty lines, which represents over 47 of the population. If you really want to end poverty on the continent, you have to address extra poverty extreme poverty in nigeria and the democratic republic of congo. The numbers at the continental level will be much lower. Extreme poverty is a critical factor, because especially with beographic boom which will turned either in dividends or in bond. Ntial a second factor most of you know here among boko haram, and in Islamist Insurgency movements in the northeast. We have the Islamic State of has led to, which more than 2 million displaced people and thousands of people dead. That does not just affect nigeria. It also affects the broader region with cameroon, chad, among other countries which are affected by boko haram. We also have as one of the challenges the nomadic henchmen and farmers. This conflict is extremely important, has led to the death and itsands of people, see due to, as we Climate Change, the change of habit. There is a deep drought. From the rain went rain season the rain season tot from 150 days on average 120 days which is problematic for the farmers and hedge men. This is another important factor with the competition for arab land, water, which add to insecurity and conflicts among other factors. We also have intentions in the niger they remain important. And they need to be effectively , so some progress is being made but there is an important gap, which brings us the task of anyone who would president of nigeria is security,complex, manufacturing challenges. To lead a nation like nigeria. There are a lot of options and the label of corruption is still engaging with some investors who told me they paid to cross the borders. Also know about some of the when they decided to suspend the chief justice. Nigeria and iut will continue to let one of my colleagues speak about south africa. You were turn to my a peace corps volunteer in the congo quite a few years ago but youve been following the situation very closely over the past year and have had an opportunity to engage with the president i wonder if you would say a few words about where you think things are going. Thank you. Im going to put my ideas out as a brief provocation im not going to try to be perfectly analytically balanced, im feeling hopeful, and that will be my bottom line. There are lots of reasons not to be too hopeful that as a person who was a peace corps volunteer in the 1980s and saw the decline which culminated in the end of the regime and civil warfare in the, now we have an Ebola Outbreak that the World Health Organization has just thinked an emergency, you i could talk about hopefulness, and even though the president was not the preferred candidate, the former president still seems to have won an election we have previous panels where we tried to get them, we had congolese, tom perry yellow, talking about the politics and the rca and a lot of people are worried, thinking the election was rigged with concerns that he had done a deal and there may have been some kind of an understanding but i am still but even when there is an effort to control a progression theres an opportunity for a new president. At least to begin to reform human rights practices. There was a famous human rights campaigner who just passed away fairly recently and has a tradition of promoting human rights even though the Political Institutions are not strong, the judiciary is not completely independent, the Prime Minister and the parliament are at the behest theres an opportunity for at least some political space to emerge. Weve seen the congo go up and down with copper prices and the effects of conflicts in the east, and now ebola again on its ability to engage. Nonetheless, there is gentle, positive movement on the economic front, still one of the poorest countries on earth. I didnt even know there were that many countries on earth, but congo ranks so badly it is a higher number than the number of countries i thought were on the planet but i guess that reflects that im not uptodate. There has been some gradual positive movement in the bottom line that i want to drive home is that i know the congolese people it is the most vibrant society, the most energetic people Political Institutions have been weak, corruption is pervasive, but this is a people that has a powerful spirit, and in a way i think the government can just get out of the way and we will be in a place where we can do better. By which weideas could expedite this in the months and years ahead but i will save that for later. I see at line is that least a glimmers of hope on a number of funds some degree of political dispensing from the some degree of movement on the economy. To me, its a lot more than ive seen in 35 years of watching. Positive. Voice of we have talked a lot about elections, the outcomes of the development of genuine institutions and checks and balances. I wonder if you could give us a broad tour and focus in on a couple of countries of your choosing. Im happy to do that. Maybe the place to start is to note the fact that we are seeing an incredible rate of leadership change in Subsaharan Africa right now. This is a region that is stereotyped as a place of aging autocrats who stay in power for decades, and there are definitely a few of those. But to give you a few statistics, and the first half of this decade, 2010214, there were nine transfers of power among heads of state. Since then, from 2015, there have been 26. More than half of those transfers have been between political parties, from one party to the other. A really important story that we can dig into for me ethiopia is the most important. This is a country of more than , for a verypeople strategic part of the golf and other parts that really matter. For a longhat has ,ime been deeply authoritarian under a coalition of political parties, so authoritarian that elections in 2015, they got every single seat in the parliament. Tipping was really the tont in 2016 you started see large protests in the that through a series of events it led to the Prime Minister stepping down in into the Ruling Party Goes this very prolonged process of picking he was next and they who waswith a gentleman not particularly well known to to bey, and it turns out this ambitious, frenetic ball of energy, and a real reformer in many ways. Hes 42 years old, from the roma andic group, and he came in did the audacious moves, freeing thousands of people from prison ethiopia had an incredible number of Political Prisoners seeking peace with the archrival, doing a lot to really open up political space and freedoms in ethiopia, which i know from a lot of conversations, in ethiopia is deeply appreciated, pushing through legislation to support those freedoms Civil Society in particular. Thats a good story. But with every good story comes a challenge. A is really facing substantial backlash, as are some of the other leaders. Hes facing a backlash from the old regime, the folks who were and in ethiopia thats a particular ethnic group which has been dominant for many years , signs of the population that held real political power, now pushing back any number of ways. He is also facing some substantial Ethnic Violence throughout the country because what happens when the space opens up so quickly and there are so many good things, the bad things are bad, and part of what you see is really heightened ethnic identity and tension filling that space, and a lot of ethnically driven violence. There werethat approximately 3 million internally displaced people recently, and last year ethiopia had created more new refugees than any country in the world. The honeymoon is ending. But it is still an Incredible Opportunity to transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The big test ethiopia is scheduled to have elections it is unclear if it can get things together in time to do that and if they can provide enough security to make for an environment to do that. Bottom line, this is a really important story, one worth watching, one that has a lot to do with the trajectory of democratic governance across the board. Thank you, that was terrific, and i want to come back to south africa, but first i would like you all to say a word or two about u. S. Policy in the Current Administration as well as how we can look at how they are taking advantage of these new opportunities presented by this series of transitions and also head of the real threats that are facing each of these countries in the region as a whole. You talked a little bit in your domination ofe u. S. Policy for decades. I come at this from the perspective of someone who works in the middle east theres been a temptation to look at much of the world through a counterterrorism framing over the course of the past 1520 years. You also brought in the issue of this issueook of personalization. Particularly the identity of the president. President obama a particular orientation toward africa is a continent, President Trump has articulated himself in a less positive framing. Can you say a few words about the history and the Current Administration and i will try to engage the rest of you . Thank you. Withing about u. S. Policy, the Obama Administration there was a lot of hope and the expectation that given his african roots that he would fundamentally change the way the u. S. Interacts with the continent. The analysis so far has been that it has not been the case, there has not been a fundamental shift. The Trump Administration is still formulating im sure my colleagues would have something to say more about that. In terms of looking at u. S. Relations, a couple of things in terms of security as john it hased in his article, been historically too much perhaps on just humanitarian and Public Health related initiatives and less on governance and institution. I think certainly when you look it is comingges from Civil Society and institutions the historic role the Supreme Court played in kenyan elections in the 2017, overturning a president elect for the first time in history. But that was followed up by an election not too far along that was boycotted by the opposition. So clearly that institutional check was not enough to fundamentally change the system. So wheres the followup . The u. S. Can play a role in helping those societies on the ground on the legislative level, judicial level, et cetera we look at u. S. Policy on the continent, there has been an increased role that the u. S. Military has played, particularly in the name of counterinsurgency and terrorism activity. If you look at somalia, since 2017, theres been an increase there has been a recent report by Amnesty International earlier this year that highlighted the effect of that increased activity, which included an increase in civilian casualties. They may be targeting alshabaab from a security standpoint, it is not helping somalia on the ground with National Cohesion and local institutional building. We have to be cautious of the role the military plays but we also have to provide a lot more support for this vibrant Civil Society which is advocating for much of the change we see happening at the top. You talk a lot about both urbanization and Digital Transformation what are the ways in which the United States can work with regional leaders to take advantage of some of the opportunities for Economic Development. Excellent point. Last december the trump i think that the fastest strategy and finally, stability through Democratic Development and foreign aid. Recently the administration is focusing on prosperity, which important for two reasons the first is that this is the first time the u. S. Administration is deciding to coordinate the action of 18 improve in order to relations between the u. S. And africa, especially in terms of trade and development stop they went from doubling to increasing trade and investment between africa and the u. S. Extremely important. The second one is private Sector Administration for everything that has been controversial, at least acknowledged the tremendous economic potential of africa and i think this bites some words which were inopportune will he used, it is a good thing to have an administration which looks at from something other than a security aspect. Focus on security is extremely important but the economic muchnce is also good of it evolves in underdeveloped cities. Iis an important point have a chapter in the upcoming leaving nobility, fragile state and no one behind, and i think there are good things which could inspire the u. S. Policy for why africa is the u. S. Focuses on the National Level, which is as i saidver previously, about 80 of the population will be going in major cities, so if you overlook those cities we may not be effectively addressing some of the core challenges. But also private Sector Development is extremely important. How will we address unemployment . By support for private Technology Including we will havee, substantial implements. And finally, a positive development was Just Announced i thek last week or so, United States trade representative issued as joint statement with the African Union about erasing the development of u. S. Africa relations through the african continental freetrade this is a tremendous development, especially as things were thereersus original are many good things being developed. Case of nigeria, i think an important aspect will be to support the state but also city and provinces or regions. Including for service delivery, and the one in its an extremely but tont aspect sustainably deliver an thats ann important factor. Partly the be weponsibility of nigeria have seen the girls who were of duct did and perhaps the nigerians were not in use the but youd welcoming it it begins with the support of the u. S. And the fight against boko haram has been much more effective. Acknowledge the leadership of the u. S. When it activities andry expertise i think african countries should not shy away from that and acknowledge and receive support. Let me interrupt you for one moment because thats an egg that a natural segue. I want to offer a thought about the congo, picking up on on taking it to the next dimension. Matt pointed out that we need to be careful about how we use the u. S. Military, but im worried we may under do it as much as we as averdo it because , the u. S. Alyst military is focusing on china and russia these days as part of the National Defense strategy that builds on what the Obama Administration was doing the last couple years which tends to downplay other regions in the world in zerosum terms to the extent of the number of american forces. But those who are worried about china and russia, we are competing with those countries in africa and other parts of the world. We dont want to only think about the western pacific and Eastern Europe when we think about russia and china in one of the things we are seeing go on is the big chinese role which is not all bad. I was a peace corps volunteer inland from the capital you could drive that in one day and a decade later you needed a land rover and a week to get from point a to point b. The chinese rebuilt it and it works again. We dont compete as well as we could. We are doing better now with some other tools with a number of other key officials. We should continue to up our game in the economic and diplomatic investment realms, but a specific idea would actually require a bit more American Military presence on the continent. Helping theea of Congolese Military under a new president reform so they can gradually do more of the reform some point at not immediately, but at some point we have to help that u. N. Peacekeeping mission, which means making the Congolese Military better. More generally, trying to stabilize parts of the country that right now cannot progress economically because of the insecurity. See the United States consider deploying advisory teams to work with the Congolese Military. Under the human peacekeeping umbrella, but in a more specific, targeted way, it resembles iraq and afghanistan at a smaller scale. To me, its an idea that the can see be right we him willing to make some reform, which allows them by the way, i also want to thank my friend you, iturn, so thank appreciate the effort. The summer intern class and hannah in particular. Great. John, i am going to prevail upon you about the horn and the take this please conversation in whichever direction you prefer. I want to make three points. To is how important it is focus on institutions and not individuals. As exciting as these leaders avoid playingo into any cult of personality which can happen easily and we have seen time and again that cult of personality can be the lifeblood of authoritarian war. We are encouraging leaders but what matters is the institutions and the rules of the game that are going to outlive those leaders that is why what the Prime Minister is doing in terms of changing legislation is important thats the kind of state change the kind of change we should be supporting. The second point is support to Civil Society it is so crucial. Africa, afteruth the remarkable transition to mandela, and nelson more recently there was the latest the leadership of jacob zuma which proved disastrous in many ways, and south africa fell into the situation of state capture, where there was largescale corruption amongst many of the elite. Africans,alk to south what they will point to is that south africa has been able to write the ship under the leadership of the new president role of the judiciary, the media, and Civil Society stop all three of those were critical to exposing state capture and exposing what was happening under president zuma and to generating some momentum for change and generating some pride amongst the population for change. The United States investing in that Civil Society throughout the continent we dont invest much in south africa because Civil Society is relatively robust, but investing in that engagement in media, it is so important and a huge bang for the buck in terms of spending taxpayer dollars. Last point, the United States needs to call things like we see it in africa. I think particularly in africa we find ourselves twisting into a rhetorical pretzel, and he comes back to bite us. There was a coup in zimbabwe, the textbook definition of a coup. They didnt call it that for various reasons because certain rules kick into effect when you call it a coup. Hopefully we dont do ourselves any favors by not calling what it is. By most accounts, the president did not win that election. In many ways, this is progress, because his handpicked successor is not there, but the United States and many others chose to support an outcome that we probably know was probably not the outcome. These things get us in trouble time and again, and i think u. S. Policy often needs to get back to calling it like see it. Great advice. Since we have finally come to south africa, we need a few quick words, because obviously its an important factor, and we have danced around the region but we have just now started the conversation. Absolutely. The anc has had this low score, thats an important point to highlight. That, there an important factor, that extremism is on the rise in south africa. For example, the economic , 6. 4 in the past elections. 12. 4 . Edom breath has it is dramatic to see that. Alliance has also 20. 8 fromer score, 22. 2 in the past election. I think it is also ready the broader Economic Situation and corruption the lack of government effectiveness and accountability. Human capital is also critical. South africa is one of the countries with the highest Development Across the world. Connection between Economic Development, security, the political situation, which needs to be taken into consideration. The question of industrialization. Nigeria, egypt, and south africa are the center of spending. The countries which are critical. We also know investments are extremely important. Saga withu follow the the challenges to energy. The last time i checked it was. Bout 13 billion of this the energy sector. For havingpeful interacted with the president , im quite hopeful for south africa because i think he is capable, but capability is not enough. Things have to go beyond the individual. Things one of the best which could be done is to empower the national authority, allocating enough resources to investigate cases of corruption, fraud. Government,t in the we will continue to see increases in extremism. That does not just happen in the United States. If i can ask one point on south africa and part of the reason why the current transition they are undergoing is so important is about south africas Foreign Policy and south africas potential to flex muscles beyond their muscles on the global stage. South africa is only u. N. Global Security Council. Next year, the president will take up chairmanship of the African Union. This is a great opportunity. , southresident zuma africa was not a productive force on the international stage. Found themselves siding with authoritarians and antidemocratic forces than under president mandela and to a lesser stan under president mbeki. For is just asg the president is trying to make this pivot domestically, is he going to make it pivot on the becauseional stage south africa can be a positive voice and a model. Can they return to that note they have an opportunity . To open it up to the audience. We have a standing room only crowd. What i will do is ask each of you to ask a question, not a statement with a . At the end, but actual questions. And to keep your question one part only. I will take three at a time. We will start right here. Say that my approach to handling questions, a lot of hands go up. I like to make sure there is a diversity of people asking questions and a diversity of people on the stage. We will start right in front. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Coordinatorl state for the not too young to run from nigeria. Im also the founder of ready to lead africa. Im a guest of the state department in the United States. Part of my experience here has been really great because i learned firsthand how this country was built. It was built on the backbone of quality education. I have had heated conversations. Invested in the support for african countries for quality education. You cannot be ignorant and free. It never has been and never will be. If we do not have an educated population, it will not be able to result. My question is what is the ensurestates doing to that we tie the hands of African Leaders to invest in education and increase the level of the years, we that, in 20 will be sitting here and talking that we areogress making ourselves as partners and not as people who are looking for aid. Thank you. Than three. More i will take the gentleman and the lady in the back. Thank you very much. Im an immigrant from ghana. I have been following policy for decades. I want to respect to the instructions and narrow all the different questions i have to just one, but let me just say i take issue beenthe analysis that has given more time to debate it. Question is thanks for doing just look at the topic again and its and security in africa. We have not talked about the sahara. Molly went through a crisis a mali went through a crisis. There are so many Security Issues in africa that in my mind have deteriorated since the start of afrikaans. I thought there would be a focus on that. I thank you for doing this and im glad you covered so many issues, but security is so , sortant and africa is big my question is, will you promise me that you will do a Real Security forum. [laughter] and let us talk about these major Security Issues. Chinant compete against by pulling back on Security Issues in africa. I promise. We added and we will. This one is on the six countries we mentioned. Good morning. Associate for African Orthodox Church engagement. Thank you for the presentations this morning. My question has two parts to it. I will be quick. I havent heard much about womens empowerment and gender equity in the world of women in any of these discussions. I would like to hear more about the role of women relative to security. I would also like to hear more about the specific area of faith and religion as a motivation for why values and morality may help inform a more secure environment. There is a tie and specifically to women as well. If you could relate to that in more depth. There was a lady just behind you, i believe. My name is adelaide. Im a leader of an organization. I was wondering how the situation going on in cameroon. There have been talks of genocide going on. If you look to the issues of cameroon and geographical local whytion, im wondering there was no mention of those issues. I would see that of cameroon to bemplode, it is going a major issue in the whole region. Just learned recently that lots and lotsired in cameroon. Do have a military have in cameroon. I was wondering what was the war. Position as far as the holdingou planning on another mission on this . It is a great panel when we have already had to request for more panels. We have about 23 minutes left. We have a lot more questions to get through. Im going to ask panelists to take questions that have been posed. You dont have to take all of these. I will start by passing. [laughter] i will start. Security at the local level, national, regional level. One of the things i emphasize to my students is that when you look at african governments and local level investment, education has been one of the Major Investments africans have prioritized. There was recently a report by the International Crisis group in relation to the alshabaab question, saying that the teachers have fled local schools and kids are not able to get a peopleducation, helping be susceptible to indoctrinations. The issue of conflict when we are mentioning cameroon or back in east africa, there is a regional dimension in our panelists have talked about this. The inability to intervene or the history of nonintervention that has been tried to be addressed, but not fully. There are bright spots. They intervened in 2017. I think that shows a lot of promise. If we think about womens voices is extremely important, not just in counting numbers of women but in howrians, they are being voiced within Civil Society. Activist, a prominent was arrested and given an 18 month risen sentence for writing a poem to the president. Certainly, i know that the African Studies association has been outspoken about that, but the kenyansues government reaching out to uganda to express discontent at that level of prosecution for freedom of speech. I dont think it has risen to that level, so that is one example where you can look at those individual cases, but really think about it of a policy level. Will try to answer very quickly. Education is extremely important. Should also take ownership of your own policy. That theyuessing is knology that through civil , it is important for players,xpect external that is what africans have tried to avoid. The African Leaders are investing more in education. It e discussed about did you attend when he was there . It is a topic which is close to my heart. It. Annot speak enough about we have decided to focus on six countries today and each of those countries could have been the topic of an entire day of a panel. Very good point. We have to keep talking about those challenges. In terms of womens empowerment and gender extremely important point. It was in one of the recommendations i had, but i did not have time to elaborate. Ways is tovery best include them in the formal decisionmaking processes, as far as rwanda, ethiopia. And also as members of parliament. We should also not just look at women in a very paternalistic way, in the way that lets do things for them. Together toork ensure that everyone is well represented. Is likely toutcome be better. Finally, in terms of cameron, i connected the connections to boko haram, west and southwest origins of cameroon, so i have also. He origins we dont have enough time to speak about the six countries. Than 50 of more the african population. No one should be overlooked. Just briefly on a couple points. Say it is great to see one of the fellows here, this is a Wonderful Program that invests in young people. A really great effort in nigeria to run for office in a country where they need that. I dont think the United States is going to make a lot of progress by telling leaders you should invest more in education. It goes in one ear and out the other. The progress is going to come when we invest in Civil Society, and probably people like you, who are going to organize around those issues, demand those things from the National Government and from their local government. In nigeria, there are 36 federal tate states that can be powerful themselves and that might need to be where the advocacy should be. The ability to advocate for these things gets a lot more than whatever rhetoric we might use about how other countries should spend their own money. Dynamics, iender want to highlight what is going on in sudan right now. One that is very driven. And they have been very out in front. The challenge is that when women are playing such a prominent role in the protest, then things get to negotiations, and it is all men. And that is such a missed opportunity and that is really ended is a mistake among the sudanese and probably among the greater world. Can i just add one thing on faith, which was not touched on as much . I would give a shout out to the Catholic Church in drc. Played an Important Role last year in whatever imperfect resolution we had of a very shaky collection process, making sure elections happened in the first place, they were not completely rigged in favor of the preferred candidate and that they did not lead to violence. Those are three pretty big accomplishments. I think the Catholic Church, congolese catholics, had a role in holding their own politicians accountable. That was a positive step along the lines that were discussed. Lets do another round of questions, three from this side, and hopefully i can get a few more on both sides. Starting again in the front. My name is bernard jones. Iestion to the panel is appreciate the comments my name is bernard jones, my question to the panel the state of African Security my a lack ofs, is there brain trust for the big six based upon how the instruction feels via china and u. S. Involvement . We talk about china eating africas lunch and america not being involved, based on the you talk to. You talk about African Security and i asked the question, who is negotiating the deals . Who is the brain trust . Who is the collaboration . Where is the partnership . If you could address not the lack of a brain trust, because we know african countries are start smart, but it needs a little help. Just behind. The gentleman. I hope there is also a lady on the side who might like to raise her hand. Thank you. Great panel. Im with the International Stability operations, a contractor for peacekeeping stability operations. My question is on the quality of the African Military involved. The u. S. Has been involved in a long for a long time to improve african militaries and they have been taking roles in somalia, south sudan, and elsewhere. Are we seeing a largescale professionalization of african militaries in africa to make them more effective in addressing problems on the continent . I think there was a woman in the back. Hello. Ive worked and lived in senegal and tunisia. Can anyones shed light on the share come the least educated country in the world, it infiltrated by boko haram, i have a son whos a fender and ceo of an Organization Setting up a private School System in a country that is too dangerous for the peace corps. We will start with these three. I hope of we can get relatively telegraphic answers, we might have time for another question or two. , doug may know more about African Military than i do, but we heard talk about kenya,s in ethiopia and but i would not yet say there has been progress in drc, and that is why want to see this american advisory effort seriously considered. Any comments on who is making the deals and don niger . I would say that is a really good question on who is making thateals and on ensuring the african states negotiating with china are negotiating from a position of strength and from a position of knowing what they are getting into. Characterization of u. S. Against china, new cold war, i think that its kind of silly, frankly. China is fair, theyre going to be doing deals, and they are providing a lot of what african nations want, but i think it is a really good point that when they are doing those negotiations, they need to look at what they are getting into. I suspect there are probably more thoughts on this. Deals,ost of the largest and i think i said earlier that you have a high level of the offices of president or Prime Minister are involved to some extent. About thencerned interest of china to africa. What is important is how african interestsioritize the of your own citizens versus including some with corruption involved. Think and that is where the chinese come to many of the african countries. Toy have clear interests establish priorities and to ensure that those priorities remain at the top of the agenda. Achievedriorities are by thinking about it first versus resources for some of the government. I will add very briefly to that. You think about the executive brokering these deals and sometimes claiming political winds locally. Take kenya, the Reelection Campaign on delivering this massive Infrastructure Project which was finished shortly before the first election in 2017, developing the railway or upgrading it from room faso to nairobi. That was funded through huge loans. All of a sudden, people are starting to realize what that might mean to the kenyan economy , particularly when the railway is not making the kind of money when it is going to make. Shortly after winning the thetion, they failed to get second full amount of funding of loans needed to complete the second phase of the project. That is problematic on the level of how we think about largescale infrastructure developments. When you look at the chinese, if you travel around the continent, you are seeing a major presence, building roads, infrastructure. In terms of International Makes the that difference. People are seeing the impact of chinese engagement in ways that they are not seeing the United States of the European Union the ways they used to see in the past. That is changing opinions. Littlet of quick addition to the African Military question, i think when you look at using kenya as an example, the response to the attack clearly showed that there have been some partnerships with sharing intelligence, training, that rrorist act like to some good extent, but in many places, congo, kenya, corruption is a big problem in terms of institutions, making change, making progress. If you look into the alshabaab activity in kenya, a lot of it has to do with people bribing their way across the border. How can we support those efforts of people calling out. Those are the questions. I think we have time for two more questions. We will take one from i think this side beachside. If i could get this gentleman here. And then this woman over here. Thank you. There has been a lot of discussion about security in the conventional sense. For me, in the time of spent in isica, i think there transnationalism. We have a huge amount of Food Security when you have the encroachment of the sahara increasingly because of Climate Change and generally a brain drain from areas like northwest africa and Subsaharan Africa. How can the six and the African Union take a greater role in addressing Security Issues in a nontraditional sense . [indiscernible] think the microphone are some of the challenges [inaudible] i will repeat because i will repeat that because we couldnt hear it, but what are the major challenges in terms of security . Ill ask you to give us a minute for all of these questions. I know thats not enough. So last word from the audience. Do you think we can achieve real democracy in kenya, and south africa, and other african countries without addressing the issue of land distribution, which is one of the driving . Orces let me go in reverse order for the panel, so starting with you, john. That first question is a getsy good one because it at the question of africas voice on the international stage. Part of the reason that has been relatively weak is because the big states have been relatively weak, the states we are talking about today. Thats why some of the transitions we are seeing in these places, while tenuous, can be so impactful even beyond the continent. In particular, it is south africa and nigeria. These are the two heavyweights. And southn pivot, africa is working on it, and nigeria has a way to go, they can be a voice on the global stage, and they should be. Nigeria is going to be the Third Largest country in the World Population wise by 2050. Africa is more affected by Climate Change than possibly any other part of the world. Where is the african voice on Climate Change . Its not there , for the most part. Africa is increasingly affected by Digital Rights issues. Is there voice there . Not so much. It is why south africa is important. Its why their position on the Security Council is potentially important. It is something to watch going forward. On the land distribution issue, it is obviously a big hot potato , a verypresident difficult situation to deal with. Hes facing a lot of pressure from parts of his own party to move forward on expropriation of land. Hes got a tricky balancing act because he has to be responsive to his party and responsive to a very genuine call among many south africans for that. But out the same time, expropriation is not an attractive possibility for all of the investors that south africa needs, and president the president nd has promised to bring in investment, so he needs to be very careful about the message he is sending to the outside world. An explosive issue so many places, but we probably dont have time for that. I appreciate all the very nice feedback on the Foreign Affairs article. I encourage everyone to read it. That was a coauthored piece with my friend down the street. I wanted to note that as well. I havent heard anyone respond to the niger question raised. If anyone wants to throw that into their final word, please do. I will save that for another time. Of thoset to some other issues with a future panel. No final comments on some of the questions raised . Country imrc, the going to be able to claim to talk about with any expertise, the future security agenda was a very good question. Drc is still wrestling with the oldfashioned security agenda. Even though Climate Change and Global Warming are affecting drc , it was already a really hot, rainy place when i was there in the 1980s, and it doesnt have much desert. I will just to say to backup johns point that i think some of these countries getting stronger internally will allow them to get to issues which are not really luxuries we can wait to talk about later, but it is very hard to talk about them when you are weak in a classic, internal sense by traditional measures. I dont want to suggest we do these all sequentially, but these need to go on a pass to get stronger so they can address a new security agenda, increase their voice on the world stage, all these things that john said. Ofaddressing the question land distribution or Economic Development, it is not either or. Forces should be involved at all delivered simultaneously, and bennett lee of the economic benefits. Independently of the economic benefits. Cannot ignore Human Development on the other hand. Evolve,democracy can and there are a form of challenges which could be faced. However, to improve the quality of democracy come of those challenges should be addressed as well. Conventionalf wisdom, i think it is an important push. At the beginning i spoke about some of the economic transformations ongoing on the , improving poverty in nigeria since there are 94 Million People living the low the extreme poverty line. Lot aboutdiscuss a embraced but tanzania safari to bring avestors and teach them transformation. One of the things was schools and hospitals, and in one of the hospitals, about 30 of the newborns were not reaching the age of 18 months. So those type of challenges are still real and should be properly addressed, but again, they are broad issues. So i think i will stop there because i can go on and on. I also teach classes for three hours, so. [laughter] i will be very brief. Just talking about environmental security, i think that is a very important point. There are bright spots. We can learn a lot from the african content on this from actors on the ground. Ethiopia just planted 350 Million Trees in a single day. Kenya opened the largest wind plant in the northern part of the country just this past month. In terms of east African Security more broadly, i think things like freedom of expression, promoting Media Freedom is key. We are seeing downturns in that in place like uganda, rwanda, and now more so in tanzania recently. We have to think about that. We have to think about inequality and the issue of land. Land politics are still plaguing every former settler colony on the continent. There hasnt been an example of really solving that problem. And just thinking about accountability more broadly, when we talk about corruption in these type of questions moving forward. For instance, the kenyan president did lead efforts in arresting a governor and the finance minister, but most people are quite skeptical that until we see someone in prison, we dont know yet if those efforts are really fruitful. Perhaps, just before the conclusion, i want to remind you that we have many recent books just released on africa at the bookstore, including a couple of mine on african transformation, african develop, and Economic Development strategies in africa. So i encourage you to stop by the bookstore. And michaels latest book as well. Let me ask you all to join me in thanking this phenomenal panel. [applause] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2018] question. When it comes to potential for Gun Legislation passing the senate and house and being signed by the president , joining us on the phone to talk about what has to go into play to make that happen is scott long with the hill. He is there senior staff writer. Guest good morning, pedro. Host a story you