Today, he will talk about analyzing the art of public opinion. Is a nationally recognized republican and political operative. Me in welcoming him to the stage. Mr. Baselice thank you. It is a pleasure to be here. I have been cast with sharing information about polling. I want to look at what happens in 2016. That is where we are going to start. One of the things i wanted to share with you i wanted to get quoted on this. Asked by a reporter on the eve of the president ial primary about Hillary Clinton and barack , what i thought was going to happen in the upcoming race between obama and clinton . I said, i think this race is going to hinge on who turns out. Really . He is typing away. What else . I think the race is going to hinge on how many people turn out. That is great q i put out that headline does come backt to polling, the race does hinge on who turns out, and which polls had a better handle on that and which did not. With the Trump Campaign goes back june of 2016. Kellyanne conway, you familiar with that name . Everyone is now. I wrote that she was expected to have a senior strategic role in this campaign. She helped donald trump when he was considering running for president in 2012, but she got involved with a super pac it was not available until june the. I got a call from michael depreciate no about a week ebrugio, who said, president ial races are like childbirth. Or how painful it is, you have to go out and do another one no matter how painful it is, you have to go out and do another one. We thought, now maybe the campaign will listen to wait datang to the polling now that we have a Good Campaign manager. People we were able to manage electoral votes to going from 160154. The race was pretty tight for most of the way. We see in the middle of September Clinton had a slight lead. Eight weeks from this point, you would find the race really ends up with the popular vote about the same place. A twopoint lead for Hillary Clinton on the New York Times paul in september, poll in september. If you look at the thirdparty candidate, or the Green Party Candidate polling, you would get a different read. Look at this scale. Is 15 30 8 . Ere dont think for a second that polling and data cannot be presented a different way to give a certain look. Time, the National Polls drop this campaign cycle, there were different statewide polls. The things we had to recognize is that there werent as many statewide polling as many statewide polls, as the were National Polls. S. As there were National Poll clinton and mccain were only a few votes away. Trump was at 170. We managed to get 10 electoral votes. We are on the way. Highlighting minnesota for a reason, minnesota was the toughest category, even in october. Real politics will put something in the tossup category if they points. Ve recent data the only public poll in 2012 was texas. They needed that their data point to actually move texas from tossup to likely republican. No one was looking at minnesota. They were looking at moving minnesota from a tossup state to a democrat state. Look, alle national the way up to the eve of the election, here is a poll by abc news and washington post, that adequately lead, 4743. There are other numbers and questions worth looking at. Which candidate is considered to be the most honest . Trump was seen as more trustworthy all the way through the eve of the election than Hillary Clinton. The enthusiasm going up to the favor ofwas really in donald trump, and then Hillary Clinton caught up at the end. When we look at methodology, and this is something we dont talk it is sout, but interesting horserace numbers. Who is winning . Is that all we need to know . We need to know more about these polls. You can go a little deeper, you can look at the methodology. Here is the methodology for the of news poll, dating in july 2015. They used the same sheet over and over to explain their methods. Deeper, you can see the county where i am from. This tells us something very important at the bottom. Over 60 of the interviews were conducted by cell phone, and 35 by landline. Is that a balanced representation . Some polls on the campaign were 15 50 cell and 50 landline. Cell phones are how you find younger people. Who here has a landline . The one guy with the better headline than me. Harairline than me. We wont find you students unless we have a cell phone. This makes a difference in the outcome of the ballot. We have to know exactly what that is. Exactlyl tell you within regions or nationwide. This is an article around the seventh of november, 2016, talking about how close the races. You see somethings in the data, that 47 for clinton and 43 for trump. You can see that trump is winning the independents. Several polls already show this later in the campaign. It happened late in october. The senate started breaking for trump. Ere is Something Else look at the demographics. Has 38 democrats, 31 republican. When you take this into consideration, it ties up to a bout a fourpoint differential. About ae the country is threepoint democratic advantage over republicans. Show you what i think the national map looks like on a regional basis. How do i get three points . What was the spread in the race of the actual outcome that occurred last year between trump and clinton. Two points. The spread between obama and romney in 2012 . Four points. Together, thetwo most recent National Election shows the country to have a threepoint democratic advantage. We going to do about a poll that shows a 10 point advantage . I cant go out and do anything about it because of the way that poll is published. Adont think there should be poll that has more republicans than democrats nationwide, because that is not the way the nation is. Look at the early votes by party registration. Pointstwoabout 1. 5 points more democratic than it is republican in the turnout. Looking at the polling in a one point five pointtwo point democratic advantage. In colorado, i was in charge of that state. We got to within three points, but you know better. Those thatbout voted were registered democrats, 35 republicans. Only about half the state had party registration. Texas does not, so we have to look at other measures. If eve of the election you are being and wake up at three or four in the morning eastern time, even earlier here, and you see clinton has a 90 chance of winning, what do you believe . At, thisyou looking public polling data . How we absorbing it and using it . They are talking about it in philadelphia. Michigan was too close to call. A surge of Republican Voters among blacks and democrats. It could pennsylvania and play. Ohio is looking like a trump state at about this time. This project data is looking more tossup. Michigan and pennsylvania were much closer. They showed that clinton enjoys a onepoint lead over florida. That is what the states looked back. It does matter who turns out. This was a look at the map as it finally ended up. 361 12 votes for trump, 232 for clinton. Some people dont like the look of that map. Lets make those states lets base this on the size of the state. That looks more better, more balanced, in terms of the blue and the red. You can go up shades you can negotiate of red and blue. There are a lot of different ways you can look at data. A lot of things were said after the election. A fundamental rewriting of the map. Off,if clinton pulls this i and so many others missed a lot. Believed insaid, i data for 30 years of politics, tonight, data died. It didnt die. Ive never been wrong on anything in my life. Someone said, i didnt know how deep the divisions were. Polling cannot keep up with changing demographics. The polls have demographics in them. The polls are representative of the demographics who actually voted. Here is a poll that came pretty close. Some of us in the polling field have a problem, even though we know it saves money in the media. Look at the likely voters below that. Are we getting the right number of interviews in each state . At least they tell you what they did, and there is not 940 likely voters, and the margin of error is 3. 2 . 36 of the respondents in that survey are democrats, 28 republican. They were limited to democrats by my standards for a nation wide polls. They had it as a onepoint race. Democrats, nine out of 10, voting for Hillary Clinton. Nine out of 10 republicans were voting for donald trump. Nine out of 10, showing trump won independence at the very end. Looking at the states, arizona was pretty close. I had arizona and colorado. Thought we were going to win in arizona, so we used our resources elsewhere. 2. 9 is the clear political average. I was one of the ones recommended we go elsewhere. Think we have the signs and formula behind the decision to move out of colorado and go to michigan and pennsylvania, it was kind of a necessity. The map requires the Trump Campaign to go somewhere else. Necessity, we started looking to miss constant michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. Advantage trump here. There were concerns, but there ended up being about a five point differential. A number of states were right on. I was a little bit off the mark. Trump defeated clinton by 10 points here. The state of maine was in the right direction. Most people thought that michigan was going to lean for clinton, and there was a slight differential in favor of trump. Margin off these error. New hampshire, new mexico we can see it getting any better. North carolina was going to go for trump. Ohio was one that missed the mark by the polling area and why . Pollingin about some being too democratic, when i think they should be three points more democratic than republican. If you have too Many Democrats, you get it inflated for Hillary Clinton. Polls here showed that clinton would win by two, but lost by about one. Virginia was pretty close. Because of all the predictive models out there, the polling was off. Look at this right here. The public polling is getting 4. 8 in the fourway telik test. Jill stein . Getting 1. 1 . , you are looking at 2. 4 of the vote. Where did it go . President trump. Clinton falls to points short of the public polling numbers. Vote. Was the hidden trump here we see polling right in the final days of michigan. In only one poll, the last that all the polling had trump with a twopoint lead. Lead,n has the 6. 5 point but there was nothing inside the second of november. This is somewhat dated and goes all the way back to the 26th the 26th of october . My complaint is that there was not enough public polling in the states. You have to keep in mind that polling are the Balance Sheets of politics. Accounting, they teach you the Balance Sheet measures. Liabilities. T that is what polling is. Assets against liabilities at any given point in time. Thatncome statement measures that income or net loss are the election returns. Look at pennsylvania. Hillary clinton lost pennsylvania. Here is what is interesting, and but we didnt see until about two and a half or three weeks ago in other states like this. The margin of victorys in the suburbs was pretty similar in terms of what obama had done in 2008 and 2012. The average margin of victory in the suburban philadelphia counties, you get about a hundred and 7000 votes for Hillary Clinton. In philadelphia philadelphia county, it is going democrats getsback to 1988 and she margin 65,000 votes of a of error. It is not quite what obama had done, but at that with the margin of victory she had enjoyed in the philadelphia counties she is basically where obama was. Philadelphia,in how they expected in terms of turnout by different age groups, africanamericans, anglos. Philadelphia is in the southeast corner. Bush won in 88, and clinton wins in his two races. See that bush beat kerry there by 350,000, and in 2012, romney defeated clinton and obama by 300,000. 700,000, more than the differential he was down in the southeastern part of the state. These bring up some points area pollsters pollsters do not want to admit this. Like 2012,i look typical president ial turnout we have seen more recently. Places up in the panhandle, tampa, like 2014 and was going to be good for republicans. Done higherlly turnout models with africanamerican voters and hispanic voters in texas to see with that would look like. For the first time, we had turnout models in one part of the state that may be needed to model,ied in a different which allows you to go more deeper into it. We saw a lot about these different programs, making these predictions, for one side of the other for one side or the other. On the first of october, it was 262 votes for clinton, and she is getting close. Ohio was still pretty tight by all the public polling, but it ends up really taking off for trump in the final weeks. We have to look at the data within the poll and look at what is in the poll. The polling which only took place in certain states, only 15 of those in the exit poll or Senior Citizens. A good fourth of them for more is going to be Senior Citizens in any president ial election, and 24 will not be under the age of 44. Agesdoes not reflect the on the ballot. They have the right africanamerican and latino percentages. Four points more democratic than republican was not far off either. Quick, these comments on for somel go questioning. Trump identified voters that wanted change in the country, but werent supporting him. Look at these ballot numbers, and look at the other data. Third party, looking at people that were voting. Map,d it to expand the look at other states. We had to capitalize on enthusiasm for trump. Regardless of what you may think about the two candidates, one of the things we noticed in our data was that people were not associating Hillary Clinton with change. She couldnt articulate what voters cannot articulate what Hillary Clinton would do for them. Trump was going to turn back traded, address immigration, cut taxes. Give a higher credit for working mothers or childcare. A lot of things he was talking about were issues we felt were resonating. I want to talk some more about what happened, and what is going on with the polling. Roe you should clap for that. That was good. [applause] i would like to answer some of the questions from the crowd. I typed these. Important swings in the white workingclass and africanamericans. How do you make this decision, when you construct your sample, to take account for that. Baselice we need to talk about with the turnout will be, based on recent elections. Example, i know there will be about 12 or 13 that will be africanamerican. Around 21 of the turnout should be latinohispanic. Texas is almost 40 hispanic. If you look at all populations, adult populations, you look at registered voters with a spanish surname. The turnout is about 21. Understand, what is the electorate . You have to look at other factors such as their enthusiasm , questions we ask to get people in on the very last days or weeks of the campaign. What is your likability, on the scale of 110 . Have you ever voted early . Whether you see whether it is africanamerican, anglos, different age groups, that can affect your model a little bit. That can make you wait the data differently. There was an africanamerican candidate in 2002 in texas running for campaign in the senate. Tony sanchez was running for governor against rick perry. There is an africanamerican on the democratic side and hispanic. The talk was that, this great Rainbow Coalition will turn out for the minority vote. They were talking 820 5 20 6 turnout of latinos and 50 of africanamericans. There is no Historical Data to back that up. That didnt mean that that was going to be the turnout. Rick perry was anglo. John cornyn was anglo. So more anglos would vote . No. You have to see that the interest is there. You started out talking about cell phones and land lines and the percentages of each. I saw three hands go up. One was my wife. The other was me. Two thirds of the three hands. How do you account for that . t take the entire survey walk the crowd through, how do you actually get people on the phone . Mr. Baselice when i started the , there were 336 phones down in houston, texas. We were together for a few years with gallup. Phyllis was the head of the phone bank. Concerned that at that time, when i joined the firm in the spring of 1989 that there were two refusals for every completed interview. How are we ever going to get a valid sample if two people refuse for every one that complete a survey . Refusals, soft refusals, no thanks. Hard refusals they have different four letter words. With the hangup. We have to code them, hard refusals. 15 to one. Including no answers . Will talk to 16 people. One out of the 16 will do the survey. 15 will refuse. Other people screen out. About half the dollars we make go to voicemail. It takes a lot more dials. It used to take about 1516 dials. Now, it takes about 100. Does any of this worth working . The National Polls had it pretty good. They were right on. Fortunately for polling, by peoplene, we are seeing that are old, young, different rural, suburban, answering surveys, at equal rates. We are getting representative samples. The first thing we do is look at polling to get a malefemale put in each part of the state. After that, we look at ages and partisanship and race at ethnicities. You can do interviews in the state and let it roll. People participated more readily. It is now harder to find young people. You call a landline on a senior citizen, there is a 94 chance youll get a senior citizen. Only a 34 chance i will get an 1844yearold on a landline. If we dont get that person, we go on to someone else in the household. Should we find you as a 42yearold and as someone else answers the phone and qualifies as a registered voter in . We talk to them in that county. We check our demographics as we go through the polling. We might say, stop calling republicans in this region of the state. We have enough and dont want to have to wait them down more than necessary. Do you find people answer fewer as a person that utilizes your services . I dont feel like the link of the service has been reduced. Does that mean that people will stay on the phone . We are doing more and more cell phone interviewing. At some of our National Polls, 50 . E doing a third landline and a third internet. But you need someone to take the survey. Get someone to answer the call and go through the first couple of questions, we have them. People dont talk to us for six minutes and say, something is burning on the stove, i have to go. If they can get started, we will continue. If they get all the way to the demographic questions at the end and hangup, we cannot use that survey. We can try and call them back and finish it then and there, but we do not want to wait. Survey andto start the survey over the next they may have a new opinion of the candidate. Ask is that called the incident rate . Mr. Roe is that called the incident rate . Mr. Baselice are you just registered to vote you would think the incident from a voter list would be pretty high. The phone number may be used by someone else. The first question is, are you registered to vote in this county he echoed from there, we calculate the percentage of people that actually qualify. We are looking for instances of over 40 . When they fall down below 30, it becomes expensive. You start throwing out people that dont qualify because they are not interested, you can get that survey completed, but it will take more time on the phone. Mr. Roe you talk about internet polling. Timesas one of the first where we used it and trusted it in a meaningful way. Do you see the stick do you same Participation Rate . Do you feel like you have to pay people more . I try to do a survey in texas, with 80,000 in all addresses as republican. We had 80,000 males. Single one ofry them. Only 30 people did the survey. You have to get panelists. I will click the link and do the survey we have been very effective with that. Do 400 by landline and internet. But you have to be aware of , you havernet service to really be mindful of your demographics. I did a Google Survey to see what the demographics were in texas last summer. Anglos. Oo many you can get more Senior Citizens if you pay more money, as well is more minority responders minority responders to participate. Mr. Roe through email . Mr. Baselice a Google Survey. On tax done panels reform, where we have panelists signed up around the country. An interviewer can read it to you and you can respond it. I know that kelly and talked about this during the campaign, Kellyanne Conway talked about President Trump doing better with internet interviews then he would land mines. Live interviews. That he would land lines or live interviews. Do you buy that . That inlice we saw some places, some we did not. We started to look at the psychology of, when you are in , theref your computer are polling places that have a screen that you look at, you were punching numbers, no paper. There is no one at the end of the line, more like you were voting. We asked questions along the lines of, do you know someone that wants to vote donald trump in for president , but will not say so publicly . Interesting. I suggested this didnt mean anything unless we asked the same about Hillary Clinton. Going to do with this number when we get it yet now i can remember in florida, there was a 12 point differential. What you deal with that point differential . That was something bill. It told us there was more people out there for trump than that would admit. Mr. Roe the theory about polling and the herding of pollsters. That if you have people start to see other polling, public see whatthat people other pollsters are using for their demographics. They dont want to be accused of manipulating the data. Mr. Baselice that is a problem. If you look at states like ohio, and you dont have enough republicans, and everyone is all the surveys are going to represent the republican candidate for president , and overstate Hillary Clinton. The worst that can happen what do you do if you worked for clinton and trump, and you follow that path . The first thing that we did when i joined the campaign was look at states in colorado. 35 each. Had 36ere people that democrat and 36 republican, and we were still down three points. Numeral are looking for, and the key was not to be dissuaded otherwise by the republic polling. Mr. Roe do you think there is a philosophy that whoever people think will when it is more important will then will win is more important than who they vote for . Do you think their psychological motivation to make this a faint accompanying fait accompli . Mr. Baselice everyone thinks she is going to win, so why do i need to vote . We saw this with trump at the end. You saw the clinton voters catch up. It can work both ways. Saw, ingest mistake i there was a06, Campaign Message in the final days the candidate said, i am ahead in the polls, vote for me. He was five points ahead, and he downd his numbers went 2. 03 percent. People protested. That is it not a reason to go vote for someone, that you are ahead in the polls. Data andot seen enough different questions that have been asked that comes to any conclusive result or any the psychologyo of numbers being thrown out there to the public, what are these polls and what do they need . And this last election, there were a lot of indicators that showed the clinton advantage. When it didnt turn out, everyone started questioning the numbers. We went through them tonight, and the National Polls were definitely closer. Off, but a were number of them that had current data were close. I have participated in a few of these symposiums. The democrats seemed to rely on the Second Coming letter, over 105 answers. One of them being the second james comey letter. What impact did you see with the second letter . Mr. Baselice inconclusive. We cannot say it was the determinate factor. We had more polling that went to the end and asked the question about that, in a number of different ways, to learn the impact. Calledor wrote a book the ticket splitter. He was one. He looks at a lot of data to find out ross perots involvement in the 1992 race, and relates back to how bill clinton won. Dont have enough data to know. There is more information that ,e had that shows things going the trajectory was going right for trump in the last few weeks of october. Say, what wouldve happened if that trajectory had continued without james comey getting involved. We dont know. We will soon take questions from the audience. Weight of ahe survey. You say, i will stop calling republicans in east texas. Ecause i have enough is there a standard measurement of how far you will wait, if you have people that make over 100,000, you know in that district that is Highland Park 5 . , thear will you allow that call versus the percentage . 5 of the district is in Highland Park, center park, dallas. Be the supposed to number of interviews received. A 500 sample survey. Interviews in Highland Park, we will get 25 there. But the difference is in the content. It should be about 12 males, 13 females. I have 16 sample regions across the state of texas. Amples in dallas, houston, fort worth, bear county. There is a preponderance when pulling people called to find more anglos than minorities. I found out i was polling too many anglos, so i broke out for the minority portion of dallas, and the other part of the county. I figured, if im going to do this, i have to report dated that is representative of the electorate. And then i know how many hispanic and africanamerican anglos come to these regions. Im still going to get the proper number of interviews, but if i could, lets take a look at this. I have it down here. This. E to talk about nationwide, i was telling everyone about how 40 47 of the countrys democratic. 44 republican. Gallup actually has 700,000 interviews in certain states of Party Identification in 2015 and 2016. This mirrors the same thing. Of thetheast part country should be about 20 points more democratic than republican, because it is. I am going to question that poll immediately. If i see this 26 points more democratic and republican. When did new york start voting like that . The northeast as well. That is a microcosm, right there. Combined,ast counties it is one point more republican. Five points more democrat in the northcentral, led by wisconsin, minnesota, illinois. See a poll that is more democrats than republicans in the region . How did that and when did that happen . Went in that area become more democratic . If i see a survey that has as many republicans as democrats on the west coast, i question it. We know this data. There was a poll that just came out from fox news, you will love the headline. It came out this morning. Here is that fox story roads trumps ratings. Numbers on trump and his job approval. 38 . The first time fox news has had trump below 40. September, mid august, 41 . Now, 38 , related to the storms. What you look at . You look at the demographics in this particular home. 40 7 democratic, 35 republican. It went from three points more democratic in august to 12 points in two months . May be the demographic had something to do with it. Article, theye talk about it. The white house receives mixed reviews for response to recent disasters. You have separate questions. Roadsadline is, stormy trumps job. Fascinating. Away, see howake Many Democrats are in these polls. I think we have yes. Thank you. I have two questions. My first, how do the questions you ask impact the questions you could have on the next election . Or any election . Question, to what extent do you think pollsters start using artificial intelligence, data Mining Systems to see hidden patterns in data, especially over the next two elections . Mr. Baselice i will answer the first one. We are asking questions now about trumps job approval. Saying, 41, 42. Almost like we did in the campaign. Do you know someone who approves of the job trump is doing, but wont say so publicly . Even if you disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, or anything either thinks he is doing you like . If you those questions together, you have two thirds of the country that at least like something he is doing, or like something overall. That is a much bigger number and allows those that have issues to that allows pollsters to target another group of individuals that like something he is doing. When it comes to artificial intelligence, there is a lot of data out there. We look at acxiom data, we used data in different ways in different states. Of might be on a scale out seven, one or two. Theont even know what number two or number seven meets. But if that combination issuing up again and again with other voters and isnt showing up again and again with other is showing up again and again with other voters and you are undecided . Clinton wasnt stopping their polling with three weeks to go. They were doing some data mining and looking at name identification, not getting into why people were voting for her or trump. They didnt ask why. Numbers get large completed and combine it against all this other data, algorithms can be traded to look for other things that voters have in common. Democrats were using it before republicans were. If you are a cat lover and dont like wind, you are probably not conservative. Wine, you are probably not conservative. [laughter] mr. Roe yes . I have found it fascinating that the hidden Trump Supporters were biased against those surveys. I am going to vote for trump anyway. Where do proxies decide questions like, do you know someone else . Do you feel comfortable talking about things, what kind of things can you use in the future for people isa question along this line vote. Do you find the we had hitting questions that we talked about. To wid we need more people in florida. We had a combination of questions. An easy one would be take your gender and age question. Now you have males under age 55 and female 65 and older. Those are two variables that come together to make a complex recoat. Someoneu rather have take the country in the direction of obama for you wanted to or do you want it to go in a different direction . We look at the deferential. Direction,ing a new who is undecided on the ballot, they are voting for johnson or stein. Those who were voting for Hillary Clinton and we look at other combinations of things to see where did we get a few more votes. The already had questions we developed about how to expose ote. Hidden trump v 77 of people said they voted for trump but would not do so publicly. The same for Hillary Clinton. About that after the election people were like lying. Going into 2015, how are going to thats how are people going to trust data . How are you going to get it is how are you guys you going to get citizens to trust you guys . I have democratic pollsters who are my counterparts and we look at this very closely. With the media that is not their first interest. Interest in getting a story out there. The short answer is there is nowhere else for candidates to go that the industry where they have pollsters existing. There are new tools. We are looking at internet . Quick surveys on the internet. Mining data. Voters scoring. Voters scoring does not answer the whys. It just shares with you some issues that are important. It is a combination of tools being used. Within the industry, to be trusted, we all have to fall flat on our face on both the democrat and our side. And we are still here. And so, until they can figure out how to replace us, jeff, dont replace us yet, give me a a few more cycles. Keep us around. I am playing around with the notion of going back to door to door. Not everyone had a landline phone but there were enough people of different demographic background set had phones that you could get a good sample. So they said they would give up going door to door. When in mexico, i do both doortodoor and telephone surveys. Another way and you may have had someone come to your door with an ipad who asked you questions right away. It is just like doing it over the phone. We could do these kinds of surveys over the weekends. In election years when the sun is still up, you can do that. But after halloween, you would have to do a lot of saturday and sunday polling. We have to think of some other things that will help us collect data and give everyone a chance to be interviewed enough to get a representative sample. Another way to answer that is that we will be around in our industry as long as we are useful. If we cant hit the mark, time and time again, candidates will look for Something Else. Mr. Roe to add on briefly analytics can tell you for example, instead of 6 in iowa, it can give you more specifics. Without polling to understand what moves them, there is an agreement and there is movement. Are you against the abuse of of opioids but does that move you to vote with someone who agrees. The door to door is another avenue. It is two bucks to knock a door these days. Use all the to avenues. When crews found the data scoring and surveys, you found upset aboutere this firework issue. You were able to connect with people. And their anger over this issue. Red light cameras. In the des moines, iowa area. People hated those. If you can find an issue people agree with specifically, it is a special moment in politics. We were going to talk about niche issues that were important just to one voter. Time for two more questions. Does polling did polling have a real effect on corker and flakes decisions. Mr. Roe i have been around people who work in the senate and it is a hard road. I do not know if the polling was part of their calculus in their decision not to run. But it is a hard life. You have a little bit of a life in congress depending on if you are chairman of the committee but i dont know how much polling played into their decision. Yes, sir . I see you have the map divided into 7 different sections. It is interesting to look at the numbers. Have there been studies that take a deeper dive into each of those areas and explain why they are the way they are in terms of cultural affiliation. Economic . Mr. Roe one comes to mind immediately. Three different news outlets for the same story. Hispanic voters in california versus hispanic voters in texas. F looked at the number o surveys i have done . Theexas 3 out of 8 of Hispanic Community votes republican. There is a 13 point differential from california. Hispanic voters in california are more liberal by about 15 points. The lifestyle, the news you get, the taxes are different and there is no income tax in texas. There is one in california. There are all kinds of variables to be looked at. What kind of news are you getting . There are many factors. What we dont often do after an election is look back and say what percentage of this outcome was because of the demographic makeup of these people. Their spiritual beliefs, economic position and education. We do not do enough to look at all these variables. We are so happy by the victory and so sad by the loss that we piddle around with it but do not do indepth studies. Once in a while, an independent party will pay and the other folks will have the same on the other side of the isle and dig into attitudes. And a lot of questions you are asked is binary. How much of it is ordinal scales. Job approval ratings, when do they switch to approve or not approve . How does that play into the method an . Mr. Roe tell me why you think Republican Health care is a good idea. Those are open ended questions. We can do you play questions. View point questions. Some will say that it is good because x,y,z. And others will say it is a good plan because of a,b,c. It still gives a choice. Most of the questions are designed that way. There are also questions being done on scales. The scale of 1 to 10. How interested are you in this election . We see in 2014 where republicans are more interested than democrats. It helped of them in the midterm elections. One thing that helps the current republican governor, you look at the 2014 Election Results and that is a big deal. I did six surveys of u. S. Senate races for a Business Group and i said democrats are going to win all 6 seats. They said, are you crazy . People do not like obama from 2010. Republicans got control of the house. I said 2012 is different. That is a good obama year. Republicans are not going to win any of the seats. We had to look at the scale questions. Most of the questions are designed to be approved and disapproved. They are easy to ask, answer and analyze. I want to thank everyone for coming. I would like to thank you for having two rightwing knuckle draggers on the stage. At a good liberal university. Thank you for coming, mike. Very insightful. Thank you all for being here. Well done. . [applause] . Announcer Majority Leader Kevin Mccarthy has announced the house will vote on the senate and House Conference Committee version of the tax bill on tuesday. The version of the bill is Available Online through a link on our website. Go to cspan. Org congress and vote on the debate live tuesday. Announcer cspans washington journal. Live every day with news that impacts you. Coming up, we will speak about the upcoming vote on the tax reform with Grover Norquist and andy greene. And seth jones on threats to the u. S. Homeland during the holiday season. Cspans washington journal join the discussion. Announcer cspan, where history unfolded daily. In 1979, these endless created cspan was created as a Public Service by americas Television Companies and is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. The National Menorah was