Crude Oil Progressive Bull Trend Confronts 6-Year Resistance: Break or Hold?
2021-07-10 04:00:00
John Kicklighter,
Chief Strategist
Crude Oil Technical Forecast Talking Points:
Crude oil closed Friday in the red, breaking a run of six consecutive weeks’ advance
The prevailing technical trend is still firmly bullish until there is a break below the 50-day moving average and trendline support stretching back to November at 68
Volatility from this past week coincides with a general risk market shudder but the stall at 76 exerts technical weight in a long-term double top and Fib
What time frame you evaluate a market on can render a very different perspective on what bearing and tempo you register. Crude oil on a weekly or month chart looks like it is powered by a momentum-backed bull run. However, on the daily and lower periodicity charts, there is a more prominent sense of reluctance recently that bestows greater weight to an already impressive technical overhead at 76.00. Before considering the higher scale technical barriers, it is worth noting the pickup in volatility for the commodity this past week. The two-day drop after the failed attempt to break the aforementioned overhead extended a swell in the crude volatility index (OVX) by nearly 40 percent and pushed up the 5-day (1-week) average true range to its highest since May 24th. Volume also jumped during the selloff to levels not seen since mid-March. There is greater activity for the market in bearish legs generally, but it is a reminder of the market that can appear should a significant support give way.