today. i'll see you back here next saturday at adm. eastern and smerconish up next robert hur warned us, i michael summer cornisha in philadelphia thursday night was not just another poor first debate performance by an incumbent president, reagan in 1984 or obama in 2012, they both rebounded from rust nor was it a kinda president ford who offered a single poor response about soviet domination of eastern europe or papa bush looking at his watch. >> in other words, this was not a one-off. instead, what ails joe biden cannot be fixed and eventually it comes for us all before the debate, i said that delivery would matter more than substance, meaning how things were said would matter more than what was said. after the debate, others confirmed my prognostication, including the washington post editorial page which wrote this debate may not be remembered for what was said, but rather for how it was said. the part of my prediction that was wrong was in thinking that trump and his enablers had so lowered the expectation bar for biden that he could easily exceeded he didn't trump littered the debate stage with falsehoods cnn counted 32 biden's nine on any other night that would be the takeaway but this time, all anyone will remember is biden's before adelman and rookie mistakes were made by the political veteran calling into question, not just his acuity but his debate preparation was he unaware that he be on camera even when not speaking or did they tell him so only to have him forget? in all of those closed sessions at camp david, do they roll any tape did they show him what he would look like on a split-screen? either it was a bad look that reinforced either way, it was a bad look that reinforce the concerns that have been noted in countless polls for the last year david wasserman of the cook political report tweeted this, this debate making abundantly clear that biden's insistence on running for another term when 66% of voters in our swing-state polls believe it's likely he won't be able to finish a second term. has gravely jeopardized democrats prospects to defeat trump it was the earliest debate in our recent history for a reason. it was team biden's idea to end run the commission on presidential debates why? because he needed a reset where national and battleground polls have consistently shown him trailing trump biden didn't want that narrative to cement over the summer, only to have people return in september when voting will immediately be underway gone are the days when labor day marks the start of the fall campaign, not in an age of mail-in early balloting seen this way, the debate, it was a bit of a hail mary by biden, and it was a battle fought according to biden's rules first, his insistence that there be no rfk jr. left to the commission framework and timetable, kennedy would arguably have fulfilled the requirements to get on the debate stage. and he's still might for september second, no audience. third, muted mics and to boot, to commercial breaks providing a respite so eager was trumped to get biden on a debate stage that he readily agreed to those terms. and in the end, that framework benefited trump more than biden trump's speech was untethered, as usual but his body was measured. it was not the candidate who learned over hillary nor the candidate who interrupted biden in 2020. biden at times was just lost who we have 1,000 trillionaires in america. i mean, billionaires in america. and what's happening. they're in a situation where they've fact pay eight 8.2% in taxes. if they just paid 24%, 25%, either one of those numbers they raise $500,000,000 billion dollars. i should say, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what i've been able to do with the covid excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with look if we finally beat medicare. >> thank you, president biden watching president biden, i thought of special counsel robert hur, who determined that biden had classified information, nuit shared it but still did not recommend criminal charges why not? because her did not believe he could prove biden's requisite intent, and that's why he said biden would present himself to the jury as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory those revelations went to the likelihood of success if the case were ever to be tried and that's a proper framework for evaluating potential wrongdoing, notwithstanding that a sitting president cannot be indicted. well, you remember the president's supporters, they how old? they said it was gratuitous but now we've seen what her saw and so has new york times editorial board, they are calling on president biden to leave the race here's part of what they said, quote, as it stands, the president is engaged in a reckless gamble he understood that he needed to address long-standing public concerns about his mental acuity and that he needed to do so as soon as possible. the truth mr. biden needs to confront now is that he failed his own test the fact that the new york times editorial page has asked president biden not to run is huge. it's the modern equivalent of walter cronkite editorializing about vietnam, which led lbj to recognize that he had lost middle america there are. certain underpinnings to a democratic presidents viability, cronkite was one for president johnson, the new york times editorial page is one for biden. and the democratic establishment and based on the times logic, it's also a moment when senior democratic leaders, those in governor's mansions and in the congress need to quit their conspiracy of silence about their president their obligation to their country is greater than their discomfort in calling it as it is. here's what i said on x last night. there's no recovery for joe biden from the new york times editorial, i doubt he'll be the nominee. i say that with no glee. it's just the reality of the influence, the gray lady still holds over those biden needs the most. donald trump may have just won the battle and lost the war. and here's what i met with 51 days to go until the democratic convention. will joe biden relinquish the democratic nomination to a stronger candidate? beyond vice president kamala harris. the democrats have a deep bench gavin newsom, amy klobuchar, gretchen whitmer west more. josh shapiro, pete buttigieg polls say that america is largely disgusted with the current choice between these two. well, here's a chance for a fresher face to catch lightning in a bottle, a contested democratic national convention is nothing to fear. it would be a dynamic and captivating several days in american history, the person who came out of that process the nomination, would have enormous momentum and would be a far different candidate in terms of their evident abilities far in excess of the way we look at each of them today. and that includes vice president kamala harris if she were able to convince the delegates to support her with competition, it would only be because she was compelling and the country would get to see that, that she would win the nomination in the alternative, the president's sense of patriotism might give way to perceptions of selfishness the new york times, thomas friedman is said to be among the president's favorite columnists he said the debate made him weep and he wrote this, joe biden, a good man, a good precedent has no business running for reelection. the headline, he must bow out of the race joe biden's place in history is secure as the person who denied donald trump a consecutive second term. but that might come with a footnote if he's the person who enables a trump return to the white house i want to know what you think. go to my website right now. it's were kaddish.com answer this question. should the democratic nomination be determined by contested convention? some have been sounding the alarm on this long before the debate was even on the books earlier this month, the wall street journal's annie linskey co-authored a piece based on interviews with more than 45 people over several months entitled behind closed doors, biden show signs of slipping it doesn't get more straightforward than that. yesterday, she co-authored a follow-up. the world saw biden deteriorating democrats, ignored the warnings, white house reporter for the wall street journal, annie linskey joins me now and i'm going to put up on the screen the lead for your most recent can reporting. i'll read it aloud and then have you summarize the new story. you say, with regard to the presence overseas trip, officials said that biden's performance and focus can vary significantly between meetings and even within a meeting, two senior european officials cited a european union us summit in october in washington, at which biden struggled to follow the discussions, both said he stumbled over his talking points at several moments requiring secretary of state anthony blinken to intervene and point out the lines he should use summarize your most recent reporting. what do you have? >> yeah. thank you. it's great to be on. i appreciate it. and yeah, we have a piece on the front page of today's wall street journal that looked at some of biden's most frequent foreign trips. and its interactions with diplomats from around the world you've. been really interested in how biden important himself in these small closed doors meetings, largely because the white house has said to us repeatedly and send to the world repeatedly that look, if only you saw the joe biden, we see behind closed doors, he has sharp as attack. i think when he spokesperson even said that he has sharper than ever when behind closed doors and that really launched an effort by my news organization to try to find what are these moments behind closed doors and so let's recently some of my european colleagues were able to work their sources. this is effort that really got an arrest after the debate. this second piece of the story and they were able to talk to some other sources who've been with the president in some of these diplomatic meetings with world leaders and some of them some of the participants have walked away quite concerned so when you wrote on this subject with your colleagues on june 4 republicans were on the record, democrats were not. the white house then said, essentially this is a partisan hit job. what's the situation? are there democratic sources who feed you this information but don't want to be known or is it only coming from republicans? >> well, the story that we initially row relied mostly on republican sources, but the anecdotes that were in the story were supported in many cases by democrats on background luck, if you are a democrat in this party talking about the president's age is saying it's touching the third rail is sort of that wouldn't be as kind of a spot day compared to what you're going to get so there is absolutely no incentive, particularly before the debate for any democrat to say anything about the president's age. it's been a topic that is radioactive. so i think the expectation that a democrat is going to stand up to their party and explain what they're seeing behind closed doors in a candid way is we mean that's a bar that we were unable to cross. and that story, i wish we had. now, did we talk democrats? do we hear from democrats who said yes, this is what we see two, of course we did any do you think the debate changes that do you think the new york times editorial that i referenced in my opening commentary changes that and gives cover two democrats to now go on record telling you the things they've said privately i think so. >> i mean, i think there's i think there's a hesitation for democrats to be seen in this moment is piling on the president. i think there's the way people have described it as this is a very fluid period there's a tremendous amount of party loyalty i'll see you there is i feel that the democratic party is very much bound together by this fear of donald trump returning to power and there has been a reluctance to be candid about some of biden's drawbacks because of that. so i don't know. i don't know. i can't speculate they may, do. i do know that we've just heard from a lot of sources who said yes, that was right on and we're glad that you did it reporting and put it out there. >> any linskey from the wall street journal. thank you for being here thank you so what would happen if president biden were to drop out of the race? elaine kmart joins me now. she's founding director for the center for effective public management and senior fellow for governance studies at the brookings institution. this is her area of expertise, nice to see you again, what would happen at the convention if the president were to say, i'm no longer your candidate well, if it happened right at the convention, that would be really pretty chaotic if it happened some weeks before the convention, you would find other people who want to be the presidential nominee. >> the democratic party, calling for thow about proximately 4,000 delegates who've already been elected those delegates are absolutely biden supporters and but we don't know if biden voluntarily took himself out. we don't know where those people would be. there would be a scramble for their attention. if you could see canada today, it's going to state delegation meetings. you could see candidates getting on shows like yours trying to make an impression publicly, people would watch the polls. there'd be a lot of attention to these candidates and ultimately, they would have to convince somewhat somewhere in the neighborhood of 2000 plus democratic delegates to vote for them on a roll call vote am i right? >> that president biden could not control those delegates currently pledged to him. he could make an endorsement if he chose, but he can't just say and here will be my successor no, of course not know. he he can't he doesn't control them in the legal sense. obviously, his view on on who should be a successor will be very important. and we'll probably carry a lot of weight with a lot of the delegates who are, who are dedicated to joe biden. i mean, i think the one thing we forget in this is that lots of people in the democratic party loved joe biden. they've known him for years. he's done things for them for years. they know he's a good man and he's been a good president so you're going to have a lot of attention to what joe biden thinks should he decide not to run as there are an impediment in getting on some state ballots at this juncture, has that ship already sailed if there wouldn't be a change in the democratic nominee, do you get on the wisconsin ballot? oh, sure. yeah. because if people don't, you're not on the ballot until the convention formally nominates you so it's the formal nomination that puts you on statewide ballot. so at this point, there's no problem and it's there's only a problem after the if somebody if nominee would drop out after there convention okay. >> so we've had this conversation before. you've got to look at it in different blocks of time. there's the scenario of now through the convention, there's a totally different scenario. if it's post convention through election day. and frankly, if it's after election day through the inauguration, that's a third scenario. >> that's right through three different scenarios. if for some reason the president, the nominee, dropped out after the convention than the democratic national committee would convene and select the nominee. same thing by the way, for the republican party and if the nominee dropped out after the election and before the electoral college mates, you still have electors who are democrats and electors who are republicans. they would get, they would decide the replacement for the nominee if the democratic candidate or the president elect drops out after the electoral college has met, then the constitution finally kicks in. and the vice president elect will be inaugurated. so it's three different scenarios, but up until election day, it really is in the hands of the political parties away and came mark that was excellent. we thank you thanks for having me what are your thoughts hit me up on social media. i am on twitter now, x usually rely on that during the course of the program, but i'm on all the platforms a little one-sided, aren't you, michael? it's unbelievable that these two are the best either party can come up with to lead the country over the next four years. i don't get the part that says a little one-sided. wayne mciver, the issue of the day, you might not like it, wayne is the president, the incumbent president's performance on thursday night? and i think that that editorial today from the new york times is a potential game changer, a wake-up call for the democratic establishment, providing them cover to break what his heretofore been. a conspiracy of silence to discuss the state of affairs and annie linskey from the wall street journal, just confirm for you to that. what gets said by democrats behind closed doors comports with what we saw on thursday night. and there's time to make a change and that's what the opening commentary and segment was all about. i want to know what you think. i have no idea how today's poll question is going to turn out. i just know it's a darn good one. should the democratic nomination be determined by a contested convention goes mercado each mercado.com, and cast your ballot up ahead. more than 51 million tuned into thursday's presidential debate. a cnn poll found that 60 d, 7% of debate watchers say the trump outperformed biden, with most saying they have no real confidence in biden's ability to lead the country. so how important? was this first debate? what do past debates and elections tell us pollster frank lunch, who's concluded, who has conducted presidential focus groups since 1990 six said, he's never witnessed one reaching a conclusion. this overwhelming. what does he mean? i'm about to ask him, make sure you're signing up for my free daily newsletter. it's great content and it includes exclusive political cartoons like this, drawn four for a spice. steve brain there's sanjay gupta reports the last alzheimer's patient, july cemetery on cia if you're living with hiv, imagine being good to go without daily hiv pills good to go unscripted, good to go on a whim with cabinet. >> there's no pausing for daily hiv pills for adults were undetected double kevin uva is the only complete long-acting hiv treatment you can get every other month. it's two injections from a healthcare provider, just six times a year don't receive kevin uva if you're allergic to its ingredients or if you're taking certain medicines which may interact with cabin nova serious side effects include allergic reactions, post injection reactions, liver problems, and depression. if you have a rash and other allergic reactions, symptoms, stock have a nova in gap medical help right away. tell your doctor if you have liver or kidney problems of mental health concerns and if you are pregnant or breastfeeding or considering pregnancy, some of the most common side effects include injection site reactions, fever, and tiredness. with cabin uga, you're good to go. ask your doctor about switching with consumer cellular is fast reliable coverage. >> it's easy to win races and good two months free when you buy any iphone like iphone 15 pro with titanium life with a fib can mean a lifetime of blood thinners. and if you're troubled by falls and bleeds wurie follows you everywhere over 400,000 people have left blood thinners behind with watchman watchmen is a safe, minimally invasive, onetime implant that reduces stroke risk and bleeding for life watchmen, it's one time for a lifetime this is the temper p-adic breeze mattress and it's designed to help you feel cool to know more sweating all night, no kicking off the covers or blasting the air conditioning because only the temper pedigrees is made with our one-of-a-kind colon technology that pulls heat away from your body. >> so the mattress fuels up to ten degrees cooler all night long during our july 4th sale, save $500 on temper brings mattresses and sleep cool and comfortable all summer long learn more at temper fidic.com it's time to feed the dogs real food, not highly processed palace. >> the farmers dog is fresh food made with whole meet and veggies it's not dry food. it's not wet food. it's just real food. it's an idea whose time has come lactate is 100% real melt just without the lactose delicious to just ask my old friend kevin now than i can join the call one while watching the game who's willing no idea. real milk reel, delicious. >> and don't forget to try some delicious creamy lactate ice cream what's that wow, smart cow his outdated dmv has two forms of my id think of all the places that can expose your inference. >> lifelong monitors millions of data points for identity that there's a problem. we fix it, guaranteed. deep down, i knew something with row since my fatigue and lightheadedness would come and go. i figured it wasn't a big deal. then i saw my doc and ganga. i have a few and that means there's about a five times greater risk of stroke symptoms like irregular heartbeat heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or lightheadedness can come and go. but if you have a fib the risk of stroke is always there. if you have one or more symptoms, get checked out, holding off on seeing a doctor won't change whether or not to have eight fifths but if you do making that appointment can help you get ahead of stroke risk contacted dr. and learn more at no time to wait that closed captioning bronchi by guilt visit gilt.com today for up to 70% off designer brands house the designers like get your heart racing had inside a prices new every day, hurry they'll be gone in a flash designer sales at up to 70% are sop guilty.com today how will biden's poor debate performance impact the 2024 presidential election? >> 538 has been tracking polls from previous presidential election cycles since 1976. and in a recent, abc news 530 being a piece called why the biden-trump debate matters more than you think the data fines on average the first presidential debate shifts the national polls by 2.4 percentage points that number may sound small, but a 2.4 percentage shift for either trump or biden in any of the six battleground states could easily determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election. joining me now is pollster and communications strategist frank lunch. he's been conducting presidential focus groups since 1996. frank nice to see you tell me about your focus group relative to this debate well, first thing in the audience has out of this process works i hear you're commentary in my year, i sit for 20 minutes, then we do this interview. you and i i've never heard someone speak my words i actually free to out the control room because i said to them i hear my own head echoing you have a dead on, you have it perfectly. i've never complimented a host on air live man, you understand this? the american people are frustrated with these two candidates they do not want trump and biden running against each other. they do want a change all the trump people. hey, joe biden, all the biden people hate donald trump. there's only 4% that are truly undecided, which is why think that you're going to see a smaller shift this time, even though everyone says that donald trump won that debate in our own focus group, the key moment is not that 1212 trump one went to biden in one state undecided the key moment is not that they said to me that they didn't like donald trump. but they're afraid of joe biden the key moments when they said and communicated that joe biden should not be running. they did so with respect they did so out of sadness, a significant number of people in that group voted for joe biden, 2020. and they said he's not the same guy now that he was then. and so what i don't understand and what i cannot answer if average voters see this what do the people who worked for the president, who respect him and revere him and appreciate all that he's done with. they don't see and i know use the words behind closed doors with your interview. here's the problem. the american people saw donald trump here. joe biden here side-by-side. they heard trump's insulted, didn't like it. they heard trump's asides. they were offended by it, but he completed senses, he completed thoughts maybe some of them weren't true. but they thought he still was presidential and then they listen to joe biden having trouble with simple sentences, having trouble completing his thoughts. and that's the power of focus groups to explain things that polls don't explain and what they saw was somebody who not only and i'm going to use their words not only is he asking for four years our group said, can even make four more months so that's that's the way it is this this conversation brings me no joy, notwithstanding your complement, the whole discussion that we're having today but better to have the conversation while there's time on the clock, right. than to not have the conversation at all. my understanding is that frank lance still doesn't think that the horses are going to get changed, so to speak. is that fair i think that it's right now donald trump is 268 electoral votes on his side, and joe biden is somewhere in about the two 20s but there's still three states that are within the margin of error pennsylvania michigan, and wisconsin. >> what this debate is going to do is to give trump a lead in every one of the swing states, which gives him the presidency there was still time on the democratic side to say, thank you, mr. president. thank you for all that you've done. thank you for your legislation. thank you for your leadership but we need somebody else as the candidate against donald trump because i will say on the record on your show. if things stay as they are, donald trump is the next president of the united states and the democrats have to come to grips with that. and i say this, not as a republican non as a democrat, as a pollster, the debate was so significant 51 million people watched. okay, viewership was down from 2020, but 51 million people saw the comparison and two-thirds of them chose donald trump in our focus group, all the swing voters moved to trump that significant the election will go to donald trump if the status quo holds franklin's. >> thank you very much for your analysis. appreciate it thank you via social media. >> more reaction. what do we have catherine you remember how everyone underestimated him in 2020 until the people had the last word, don't assume you know, everything gone. yeah. i don't assume that i know everything i'm not the person i was in 2024 years ago. he's not the person. he was four years ago in 2020, as i said, with no glee in my voice at the outset of the program, that which alles him doesn't get better. and eventually it comes for us all. that's what makes this different sort of come more of your reactions to thursday's debate plus the supreme court is expected to rule on trump's immunity case on monday how will that monumental decision impact the former president's legal troubles and his third bid for the white house cnn senior legal analyst, elie honig here. don't forget, vote on today's poll question. it's the issue of the day should the democratic nomination be determined by a contested convention while you're there, sign up for my free daily newsletter jack omen draws force one day a week. look what he dropped, drew this week final the suit of violent earth. there are deadly myelin and unleash massive fluxions, hurricane impacts are worsening is it too late to undo decades of climate change? 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we have a simple management fee structured, so we do better when our clients do better, your clients really come first, then. yes, we make them a top priority by getting to know their finances, family health, lifestyle, and more wow, maybe we are different 51 redefining insurance close captioning is brought to you by tableau. watch, pause and record live tv subscription free start watching tv for free with tableau switching to tableau has really been a money saver without a monthly subscription was amazing. quarter today at tableau tb.com you can find me via social media in all the usual places. x, youtube, tiktok, lot of reaction today it's shameful that joe biden is letting his ego rule his decision to stay on the ticket. i'm surprised jill allowed her husband to suffer in front of the world. i'm a lifelong democrat and will be very disappointed if joe biden doesn't pass the torch. i recommend to nikki and to everybody else, read david ignatius today from the the washington post on that very issue. remember last september, he was one of the first to say, again like not someone who's trying to elect donald trump much to the contrary he was among the first to say that joe biden should not seek a second term. and in his reporting today, he says that jill was irate at the column that others were disappointed in. he, david ignatius for writing it. but jill biden was absolutely irate. and one wonders what kind of council she might be providing to him in view of this conversation, another social media reaction, if i might, what do we have? michael, i didn't see your pulse suggesting should the gop have an open convention to remove trump? perhaps i missed it. dennis fountain, that's because donald trump will be the nominee and nobody is saying today that he imploded on the debate stage. i mean, come on. you really want to play that, that, that game of the yabna but and what about them? and if donald trump if donald trump had turned in the debate performance that joe biden did on thursday night. you can rest assured i be sitting here having a conversation saying two republicans. are you sure this is the guy you want to put up? because i'm certainly not afraid to criticize both sides. i think that some of you are so accustomed to hearing the criticism of biden that when you get it for me, it's like, oh, my god, where did this guy come from what we saw on thursday night is what people have been seeing elsewhere for for a long, long time. and i think, you know what i'm referencing. one last thought on this. if i have time to say it the criticism of me being willing to discuss it reminds me of the criticism of me entertaining guests from no labels. you remember those days, well-funded, well-organized in the end, they couldn't find a third the choice and people would say, all you're gonna do is elect biden. why are you giving them air? why are you putting on robert f. kennedy jr. why this why that stick your head back in the sand and you'll see what you get on november 5. and wouldn't show once you're rather today if you had a no labels choice a bet, you do still to come. trump's legal team expects to use the supreme court's january 6 ruling to get the former president's obstruction charges dismissed. will they succeed? and how would a decision in the highly anticipated immunity case impact all of this are of guy elie honig here to discuss. there he is. and don't forget to vote on today's poll question students were cornish.com should the democratic nomination be determined by a confessed, by a contested convention sign up for the free daily newsletter while you're there, scott stanton this draws for us one day a week checkout what he turned in after the debate hey mom, how many should i decorated? >> have ran have blue. >> that's a really tough call. >> are, you if you look at the latest data, you're probably going to need a lot of those purple sprinkles. how this guy really knows his stuff my name is karen and i'm from brooklyn. >> i worked for the city of new york as a police said in this trader, i oversee approximately 20 people and my memory just has to be sharp. and i realized my memory was just changing did my own research and i decided to give provision a try my memory became much sharper. i remembered more. i've been taken for a project for four years now. it's a life changer provision at stores everywhere without a prescription, choice, hotels is a family of brands for the hotel, for any traveler you want to be like number one chef dad cooking up a free hot breakfast for the entire family and account corporate hotel. >> mom made this. >> i added the garnish stay twice and get a $50 gift card when you booked direct, this is the temper predict breeze mattress and it's designed to help you feel cool. so no more sweating all night, no kicking off the covers or blasting the air conditioning because only the temper pedigrees is made with our one hi cooling technology. that pulls heat away from your body. so the mattress fuels up to ten degrees cooler all night long during our july 4th sale to save $500 on temper breeze mattresses and sleep cool and comfortable all summer long, learn more at timber p-adic dot com did you know sling has your favorite news programs are just $40 a month my favorite news for just $40 a month my favorite news for just $40 a month. $40 a month? 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thank cure it out. but your odds of falling victim to online crime or one and four. you need ora, you, your family, all protected from scary online? it's not that bad to protect everything your family does online with aura zehr take allergy relief works fast and last the full 24 hours. >> so dave, can viva deliver dance? >> okay. dave let's be more than our allergies. >> seize the day with zyrtec when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures. you need whether tech laser measured for liners, front and rear seat protector to save the seeds they're all yours are coming so i whether take the car can we we can now kick your view with american made products at whether tech.com, i'm jessica schneider at the federal courthouse in washington. and this is cnn the supreme court will announce on monday if former president trump is immune from criminal prosecution, the landmark decision could have serious consequences for trump's pending legal troubles and sent shockwaves into the 2024 presidential race. >> on friday, the high court also ruled that the doj overstepped by charging hundreds of people with obstruction for stormy the capitol on january 6, the dc district court now reopening some of those cases about 52 rioters were convicted and sentenced with the obstruction charge as their only felony chief justice john roberts pen the 6-3 majority opinion alongside mostly conservatives and one liberal justice saying, quote nothing in the text or statutory history suggests that the law is designed to impose up to 20 years imprisonment on essentially all defendants who commit obstruction of justice in any way prosecutors can still file obstruction charges against rioters if they're able to prove the defendant's tried to stop the arrival of certificates used to count electoral votes. special counsel jack smith likely to continue to pursue the same charge against former president trump. join me now, elie honig, former federal prosecutor, cnn senior legal analyst. elie, we know this on monday, this hot new cycle is going to take a major shift because finally we get the immunity decision. what are the possible outcomes yeah michael, so we will get this on monday. >> we can dispense with all the guessing games. there's three opinions left. this is the last opinion day. it's coming on monday sometime ten to 11:00 a.m. also, this is truly unprecedented. we love to say things are unprecedented. usually they're sorta precedented. we have no idea. this has been purely the stuff of law school hypothetical up till now. now, i do not think we're going to see a categorical win or loss either way. what i mean by that is i do not think the court's going to say criminal immunity does not exist. therefore, donald trump, you lose. i do not think the supreme court's going to say criminal immunity does exist. and it applies to you, donald trump. therefore, u win and case over, i think what they're going to do is announced. yes, there is such thing as criminal immunity. here is the rule for how it applies. i think that rule's going to have something to do with whether the conduct was within the scope of the official job and then the big question is, does the supreme court say, and here's how we you apply this new rule to donald trump, or do they kick it back to the trial court and say, now you have to hold a series of hearings and you decide whether it applies to donald trump most importantly, for the 2024 cycle, monday's july 1. do you see any scenario where he could go to trial in this case, the january 6 case? i do see a scenario, but it is narrowing and thin the way that would have to happen is the supreme court would have to say there is criminal immunity, but it does not apply to you, donald trump, therefore, back to judge chuck in the trial judge, she would then get the case back in her court, essentially, as of early july, and she has sent and that she intends to give the parties about the same amount of time that they had on the clock when the case went up on appeal, which was just over two months. >> so if she wanted, she could theoretically try to schedule a trial to start in late august early september, but that is right on the cusp of the election. i don't know that a single district judge is going to have the nerve to say, well, we're going to take one of the two major presidential candidates and confine them to a courtroom eight hours a day. in september and october of an election year. so there's a possibility, but it's really narrow if it goes the way elie honig suspects, then how and by whom will it be determined whether trump was acting within his official scope? so that really is the million dollar question because if the supreme court decides you were out of the scope, then it goes back to judge toucan and she can proceed with trial. what i think is more likely is they're going to throw it back to judge chuck in and say, you have to hold a series of hearings. you have to make a determination a what's the scope of the presidency as it relates to an election? b was it's trump within or without that scope and see a big question. i have no idea what they're going to say. what if it's mixed, what if 80% of his conduct was outside the scope of the presidency. but 20% was in do you pull that 20% out of the case? i have no idea. and that's why i'm eager to see this opinion. but if they say district court, you have to take it back, you have to do further fact-finding then the chances of this case being tried before the election fall down to zero. there's just no way to get that all done okay. 10:00 a.m. eastern time monday, i presume we turn on cnn and there you will be sitting to provide analysis in real time. absolutely. but the one that comes at 10:00 a.m. going to probably be a less exciting one. there's three and i think immunity will probably be last. so if you want to skip right to unity tanno are so tune in elie. thank you. as always, get some rest thanks, michael. >> so you more social media reaction from the world of x, formerly known as twitter. >> two weeks from now, trump gets sentenced to prison. neither of them are making it too. november says joshua it's amazing, joshua, just to think about we just had the debate. monday comes the immunity announcement. to your point, then comes the trump's sentencing, then comes the republican national convention and then comes the democratic convention. a couple of weeks thereafter, there's just like no can you imagine doing what i do for a living, which is commenting on all of the above, trying to look at a calendar for the summer and figure out when could the family go to the jersey shore for a week? it's impossible. it's just impossible. and it's going to be never-ending a nonstop, right through the election still to come the final results of today's poll question. they tell me there's a lot of voting hand to god. i don't know. i don't know what the voting is. go vote and when you vote, you'll see what the result is how could it be anything other than this? should the democratic nomination be determined by a contested convention subscribe to my free newsletter when you're there, you'll get exclusive editorial cartoons from the legends rob rogers drew that for us this week a lot of new dry eye patients in my office. >> tell me about their frequent dry eyes, which may point to dry eye disease millions of americans were estimated to have it. they've tried artificial tears again and again, but the relief his temporary xyda can provide lasting relief. xi der treats the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease use if you're allergic to zero common side effects include in rotation, discomfort, or blurred vision when applied to the eye and unusual taste sensation. wai wait, ask your doctor about a ninth day prescription? 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it is a 70, 30 vote. yes i must say, i am not surprised, except by the margin my gut told me it'll probably be like 55, 45. here's some social media reaction that came in. i wonder sure if they're listening at the white house. it was horrible. i felt sad for him until i heard he was not dropping out. come joe, do the right thing. says mother of weans. hey, i know who voted opposite. can you put the polar zope back on the screen? david? but that backup on the screen, it just just occurred to me. there you go. should the democratic nomination be determined by a contested convention? you know who's in the know category to the extent he voted on the poll question today donald trump like donald trump, i listened carefully to what he said yesterday in the rally and i'm sure he loves the status quo. he's enough of a showman to appreciate the interest that would be in gendered in a contested convention and how the whole world, much less the whole country would be focused on the excitement and the competition and the speeches. and somebody coming out of that would have a head of steam that biden certainly doesn't have today. one more social media reaction, if i might president biden is a good and decent man. two attributes. your guy has no idea, but i stand with our president, share that. nancy sullivan, he's not my guy, like, why are you shooting the messenger? stick your head back in the sand and see what you get because because i'm explaining the reality, it's like, oh, he's your guy because of my willing to just honestly embrace what we all saw. and by the way, here's our area of agreement. now, i'm criticizing you for your cheap shot at me, but here's our area of agreement. he is a good man with a record of accomplishment, but families all across the country are dealing with this kind of a situation. each and every day. see you next week violent earth with me of fiber. tomorrow would nine on cnn when you overdo it, undo it with the pepto, that's right for you at dot has very fast belts cherry juice with those liquid caps that make for the hit your pepto and that's why i never drive those guys bodies all were big guy retired if i don't want to get my truck 30 with whether tech laser measured for liners front and rear seat protector and full bet protection trucks are totally covered. you just got whether tax buddy, let's get dirty dr. worry-free with these american may promise whether tech.com, over 13 million americans were affected. my identity theft in 2022 and the threats are more than you realize if you're a victim of identity theft, lifelong works to fix it on your behalf backed by the million dollars protection package, enroll. now this is the temporal fidic breeze mattress and it's designed to help you feel cool. so no more sweating all night, no kicking off the covers or blasting the air conditioning because only the temper pedigrees is made with our one-of-a-kind cooling technology the polls heat away from your body. so the mattress fuels up to ten degrees cooler all night long during our july 4th sale, save $500 on temper brings mattresses and sleep, cool and comfortable all summer long, learn more at tebor fidic.com zehr take allergy relief works fast. it lasts a false 24 hours. so dave can be the deliverer. dance okay. >> day let's be more than our allergies. seize the day with zyrtec. >> i have active psoriatic arthritis, but whiskey rizzi to treat my skin and joints. count me in along with clear skin skaia rizzi helps me move with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling and the d and is just four doses a year after two started doses serious allergic reactions and an increase his risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms had a vaccine or plan to there's nothing like clear skin and better movement that means everything ask your doctor about skye rizzi today. we're no abbe get help you save for thinking i'm thinking about her honeymoon. >> but what africa? 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