The deals on top before theyre current job today donald trump is just perhaps one social post away from potential jail time as is his trial enters a very critical week. Welcome to a Special Edition Alarm Codes live hours from now, donald trump will enter a de 13 of his criminal trial. And the big question everyones asking tonight, are we going to hear from Stormy Daniels or Michael Cohen . And if so, when are they going to take the stand now according to prosecutors, we are now halfway through their case in chief. I made that sound far more exciting. I didnt perhaps to you, but we just have about two more weeks left. And yes, there will be a very key moment. And by key moment, i mean messy to have daniels and adult film star testify about an alleged sex scandal that prosecutors say she was paid to keep quiet so that it wouldnt hurt trumps 2016 campaign. But forgive the broken get to record that im about to sound like, but thats not what the heart of the case is really about. Okay. Its not a trial to prove whether he had an affair or a sexual encounter. The case is about the falsification of Business Records to cover up the crime of potentially trying to shield the transparency for Campaign Finance reasons. Thats why ive anything you could argue that todays testimony actually featured a real star witness. In fact, two of them, or maybe 34 potentially of them. The physical paper evidence. Now whether the paper will be enough to convict thats a matter for the jury. What it was introduced by way of two different witnesses. One was jeffrey cima the former Trump Organization controller, another person, Deborah Tarasoff and accounts payable supervisor at the Trump Organization. And by the way, shes still works there. Now, if you think heres how are these people going to be as exciting as michael co ones where may daniels, its a paper and documents case and i want to focus on two key pieces. The first is this Bank Statement showing that Michael Cohen page stormy 130,000 bucks in the socalled hush money. There are handwritten notes at the bottom by trumps former money man, alan yslow berg. Now those notes, they actually calculate how much cohen should be repaid the tune of 420,000 bucks. Now mccartney, he testified that in 2017 why isil berg told him to start repaying cohen anywhere is own calculations that you see here as my son knows, and school show me the math. So lets break it down for a second. How do you get to 420,000 . Well, theres the original hundred and 3,000 payment that cohen made to stormy. Then they added about 50,000 for a Tech Services company that helped with the poles as it firm that gets you to do the math . Uh, hundred and 80,000. They then double that amount to account for taxes that will get taken out so you can take home the full amount that he actually wanted. That means 360,000 and then they gave cohen a 60,000 bonus grand total 420,000. They then divided that into 12 Monthly Payments of 35,000. And thats where the checks come in, the sharpie pen signed checks, checks that were signed by trump for 35 grand to Michael Cohen. Now, Deborah Tarasoff testified that trump signed nine of the Reimbursement Checks from the transcript regarding one of those checks here was a question that was asked who is going to be paid mecole cohen. And what amount 35,000. What is the Ledger Description Distribution . Legal expense. Now, that is the heart of the case. The prosecution is trying to make that trump disguise these payments as legitimate Legal Expenses to cover up the payments of 35,000 to repay him for what happened when stormy or at least the allegations, the silencer. But to be clear, you didnt hear from either witness directly testifying to trumps knowledge tarasoff said that she never actually saw a trump sign the checks when youve got the white house, remember, all of these happened after the inauguration and mcconney testified he was never actually told that trump instructed any of these payments this is where the plot thickens for the burden of proof i want to write to Caitlin Poem Lands and your at cnn senior crime just going to court reporter, excuse me jane rasa, former federal prosecutor, tim predatory, former jump attorney eleia williams. He didnt leak landless and molly ball, your Political Correspondent for the wall street journal. So again, its a documents case and dr. Can be sexy elliot uncertainty for a second. So youve got there. There was no question there to tarasoff, and Jeffrey Mcconney they testified about the foreign 20,000, but breakdown for us about what that was showing to the jury that they did some math. Yeah, they arithmetic. Is there. How does that translate . Thanks. Number one, that the structuring of the payments and 35,000, then we see it here. Might look suspicious on its face and the i think the biggest concern for all parties involved came on crossexamination where they asked Jeffrey Mcconney directly did you hear donald trump direct these payments and forgive me, im paraphrasing a little bit and he said no. And then they said no further questions, your honore, because a big part of the defenses case, as arguing and they said in their opening statement, theyre going to say it and theyre closing them to keep hammering this point but theres no direct link between donald trump and the provision of the payments. Now, you can establish that someone knew that payments were being made by having every employee is organization say yeah, its a Small Business and he knows whats happening and you can establish that everybody knew what he wanted. But you dont have direct evidence linking it lithium to it. And i think thats going to be the prosecutors big challenge. And i think will drive the next several days testimony. Its a huge achilles heel, right . I mean, you you kinda wanna have the did you order the code red moment . I was going i was going to get a few good what Limit Reference in your somehow some way during the trial. But if you take the stand, maybe you can get that. But without that you left to have the no the inference is happening. Youve got a nice place here. Thats all it seems to establish so far. Well, heres the thing circumstantial evidence is. Justice powerful as direct evidence. And youre going to get a Jury Instruction on that. Eliots right right now. We dont have that link. Its too attenuated. We need a from the invoice to the a scheme that started in august of 2015, but i got to say this elliott mentioned that the structuring looks a little bit suspicious. I think it looks a lot suspicious. Okay and the reason is this, if you look at footnote 11 the Southern District of new yorks Sentencing Memo and the Michael Cohen case. The fec in 2013 slap the wrist of trump and cohen because colin was making payments, because trump was thinking about running for president in 2011, the whole birth or thing. He was its thinking about running against romney. So they were on notice. And if it doesnt come out, Michael Cohens testimony that they were slapped in 2013 then ne of committee malpractice. The reason i bring that up is trump knows what inkind contribution is. Trump knows that if he is having a payment right before the election, he has to conceal that payment. Now, heres where the rubber meets the road. If y so bergen cohen were in their own room coming up with this souffle. The, uh, hundred and 30,004, 20 i call it the souffle all right. If they did it on their own without telling trump, hes gonna get acquitted because theres no connection, no willfulness in the invoice so donald trump today had a good day i dont know if i would do the fist pump, but he had a good day in the sense that they have an argument in closing right now, they can Say Something to the jury that is believable. So first of all, how dare you mentioned souffles at this hour, were all hungry and now we have a midnight snack happening, but tim, im asking about this question. There was a moment here where the checks reimburse cohen were signed by Trump Tarasoff did testify a bys heres what she said. Heres the question. If he didnt want to sign it talking about the checks, if you dont want to sign it, he didnt sign it did you ever see situations where he didnt sign checks . She said, yes what would happen in those situations . He would write void on it and send it back. Question, how do you know he would write void on it . Answer it was signed in a sharpie and black. That is what he usually does. So there was some connection that he would sign allege Reimbursement Checks how damaging was that connection . Obviously, its a bit tenuous. Theres the white house versus what was happening at Trump Organization. But the fact that his i mean, hes a somebody who was meticulous about what was being spent. Its in a sharpie, its not like its a rubber stamp. Its use. Is that harmful to his i dont think its that harmful because what are the circumstances under which he avoids these checks . Its probably somebody that he has a specific disagreement with and he says, i dont want to pay this person and so if he has invoices from Michael Cohen, lets say legal fees, he then gets checks from from the staff saying, hey, sign this for Michael Cohen and he doesnt have a specific before he says, yeah, i want to screw this guy out of his what hes owed. Then hes going to sign the checks. I dont think its not as much of a bombshell the fact that he signed those checks, the key here would be exactly what jim was just saying. Is to be able to tie him in to all those calculations. And so if all you can connect him to is the checks and maybe the invoice where it says the total for legal fees. Then yeah, he probably is going to get acquitted on that. I think that why is really the key to this whole thing. And be interesting to see if he comes into testified what hes going to say about this, because cohen going on colins word alone. I dont think theres quite enough. Well, you know, iceberg is currently in jail and kaitlan, as you know, and there has been no indication he will be either a cooperator or cooperative with the prosecution. These cases its not necessarily required that he has to come in with bells on his toes but this why i think they had conway and it was his last name again mcconney. Coming in to talk about this very issue, but walk us through the ledgers in the invoices. They each show these 35,000 payment to cohen what did we learn from the paper trail that we actually do see . Yeah. So when we dont expect why sobeh testified that was wellestablished coming into this trial. But you can come in if youre in jail, they can bring you in him. They think they want. There could always be a surprise, but if we look at what last week was in this trial, the circumstantial evidence that kept coming out and they kept hammering was everything related to the campaign, the motivations this week, when youre seeing the week start with these two people from the Trump Organization who might not have been privy to the scheme work directly in donald in touch with donald trump about talking about these payments they are the people that are showing over and over again, donald trump controls the money and the way they showed that is theyre presenting evidence, theyre getting evidenced in so its not just people from the das office bringing in all the crucial evidence on record here. Its the people from trump borge, the two pieces. First, there were a whole slew of emails from Michael Cohen being sent to Jeff Mcconney at the trump org saying, did you get my invoice, pay my invoice, pay my invoice every month for that 35,000. And in one of Them Mccartney wrote back to him, ill check the status tomorrow. Bjt, donald j. Trump needs to sign the checks, so that highlights trumps involvement and then youre seeing ledgers even before we get to the checks themselves that the subsequent witness brought into the record, geoff mcconney was able to show to the jury and itd be lawyers looking at this scrutinizing it, professionals on this during looking at it, when they go to deliberate, these invoices to Michael Cohen are in two parts. There are ones that are paid out of the dj at rev, which is the donald j. Trump or vocal able trust, just signed off on by the suns Alan Weisberg and then there are nine payments, 315,000 coming out of a personal account of donald trump this is so important because many people know and obviously the jury is familiar with donald trump probably as this celebrity, as the apprentice as somebody whose reputation his name is on the building. Whether its been as his father, otherwise, mali He Capitalised for so many years on people believing that he was the person in control. But it was the buck stops there. He controls everything and we heard from testimony and kaitlan like me about really it run kind of as a mom and pop as jim acosta said earlier, id say more pop and mom the fact that youve got this playing out, how does that play . You think politically and for this jury, that they assume that he was running the show well, i think politically and for the jury, it is its a similar big Picture Question and it is about the intent. And so the jury is having to hear all of this very dry minutiae about documents, not the documents arent sexy. Certainly not saying that you know, youre right. This is a, this is a case about falsification you should have Business Records today, we saw the Business Records that was a big reveal however, what this case is going to hinge on, and the reason the subject of most of the debate about the case outside of the courtroom has been about more about the abstract legal issues involved is that we are not learning a huge amount of new information through the testimony of these witnesses. We have known for years heres the Broad Strokes of these scandals weve known what these witnesses mostly had to say, especially the bigger name witnesses whove been out there saying their case against trump for years, particularly Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels so its not that there are factual revelations. Its much more about building a narrative around to different ideas of why it was done, right so that is why i think a lot of the political debate around this case has been about the framing of it. And is this a crime . Should this be a crime . Does it rise to the level of a felony was did it have to do with the campaign . All of that stuff around the intentionality of it. I think is politically crucial because to the extent that voters are following this thats what matters to them. And also i think thats ultimately what the jury is going to be called upon to decide. Not so much, what are the facts here, but how do they interpret those facts . The framing is going to be very important. We all know how this is going to be part of the summation thats important to consider. How this will all be summarized for the jury when closing arguments do begin, because every little bit were talking about, theyre not have to have it come back together. And that Jigsaw Puzzle has got to be complete. Thank you so much, everyone stick around next, judge martian threatening trump with jail time after holding him in contempt for violating his gag order yet again. But of course for glass. It ordered the penalty. 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Trump goes to jail for violating the gag order for Swelling Scene and the Secret Service is working with me york state and local officials to maybe create some kind of a jail plan. One option assumes that judge merchan might sentence him to just a few hours in custody time. You can serpentine the manhattan courthouse where the Hush Money Trial is actually happening. But if he is sentenced to days in jail, he could be placed in the custody of the us marshals even sent to a nearby federal courthouse. Were schein calls jail a last resort, but its a real possibility after he put trump on notice and ruled that the former president violated the gag order. Now for a tenth time, that means i a pop trunk has got to pay 10,000 total and fine lines. So after court trumps now like he was willing to go to jail so he can say whatever he wants judges give me that youll go to jail if you violate that, frankly, a lot to do as much for the jail, studying and close ill do that sacrifice any day as mike tyson says, everyone has a plan to get punched in the face. Not sure he wanted to do that, but with me now, retired California Superior Court judge, a doris cordill. Thank you so much for joining us this evening, your honore, let me ask you youve obviously had been falling this very closely. I mean, the judge told trump your continued violations of this courts lawful order threatened to interfere with the administration of justice and constant attack was constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. Now, my view of the prosecution is not asking for jail ill time. Would you jail him despite the prosecution ive been asking for it well, thank you for having me on before i even answer that. Let me just say that, judge merchan is being very deliberate. Hes also been cautious and thats where i differ with him. I do not understand why hes being so cautious now. And he did somebody said something in court. I wouldnt have said had ive been presiding over this he said to donald trump, you are really important person and its really something if i have to lock you up and at the same time as you just reported, he said, you, mr. Important person are basically a threat to the rule of law. So those two things conflict in my view, if you you are not following orders. If youre breaking them ten times and in this instance, because of new york law, the fine does not fit the crime. The law needs to be changed to enhance that but that being said, theres nothing left to do the fines have been done. Its not a deterrence. He keeps doing this stuff. So its enough already. Another thing, if i were presiding over this case and saw a defendant do with donald trump does in court when the judge speaks about this directly to him, donald trump frowns. He shakes his head as if i dont want to hear this. Any other judge, would look at this and say, you know what . Thats enough time to go. So he is disrupted affecting the judge when the judge is actually trying to explain why im not going down that road. And even donald trump is rejecting that. Youve mentioned. Well, yeah, theres a holding cell. Its not really a room where people sit in, defendants sit in. So yeah, thats not jail. Theres house arrest thats not jail. So other people who violate the law by ignoring a judges order with regard to contempt proceeding, they sit in a jail, they put on jail clothing. I hear handcuffed well, judge, im at point i had to tell you i have your right. Ive sat in many a quorum is where the judge has had the equivalent of the mom fix your face to the defendant, who is smirking, are reacting in some way and there are consequences for that. But just to be clear for the audience, the additional violations the judge found predated the order for the initial 9,000 in fines, and then it said, look, anything going past this moment in time, essentially, what could result in Men Incarceration but is it all or nothing . I mean, talk to me about the potential for a graduated Jail Sentence. There could be an hour during lunch, there could be after that day before. I mean, it does necessarily mean that he would have to serve the duration of the trial in contempt, right yeah. Youre exactly right. If i were presiding over this trial and if i decided there were nut say theres another Contempt Violation and youre correct. These were all happened before the judge sit, youre going to go to jail. But the judge could do this if theres another violation and trust me theres gonna be another violation. Its coming. In which case i could impose jail and say, im going to stay the punishment, the Jail Sentence stayed, meaning hold off on it until the end of the trial. And as you we to misbehave, im going to consider adding more jail time till and the percocet your honor. Yeah. Why for me, the sentence the purpose that you dont see the purpose of that would be not to disrupt the flow of the trial and he would have to just gone well, let me ask you whats that point and it would hang over trumps head. Yeah. I absolutely i understand that lets take their philosophy. Let me ask you though too quick points i wonder if youre concerned. We were talking about Punishment Given what trump has said is this truly going to be punishment or an opportunity for perhaps martyrdom . Would you consider that point about jailing them . And the second part of course, is this judge has already said that p is not going to, if trump takes the stand, he is not going to allow the violations to go before the jury that they wont know that he has these Contempt Violations available because he thought luck. This is a jury thats in front of me every single day. They have respect for me, me having that particular moment when would be prejudicial, how would you rule all right, so first question was, is hell be a martyr. Hes going to do whatever he does, no matter what the judge orders. But the issue becomes this. If youre a judge, it shouldnt matter. It must not matter what the mob is saying when you make a ruling, its based on what happened since in your courtroom, the judge should not be concerned at all, you get judges who start making decisions. But first checking how its going to be received out there. Then we dont have an independent judiciary. Your second question, what was your second point . Would you consider when youre thinking about and i appreciate taking the time to answer both when youre looking at the decision to have a jury . Know about the violations. If he takes the stand. Right right. So the contempt is separate from the trial. So if donald trump were to testify, he would be instructed you, were not going there. No one will ask you any questions about the gag order. However, because he cannot control his mouth, it is likely we were to testify. He would probably Say Something, well, this crooked, judge, has gagged me, in which case hes opened the door. And in that Case Prosecution and go right in and show how he has made statements that have threatened the jury and threatened witnesses. So its all up to him. Another parallel potentially for somebody willing to take the stand, judge, the doris cordill. Thank you so much for joining us this evening thank you. Thank you. Youre honore. Next, a lifelong republican. Now, ditching trump. Saying enough is enough. Why former georgia is he like governor geoff duncan said that he is now boeing get this for Joe Biden In November Plus evacuations and new for heard and Southern Gaza after israel says a Ceasefire Proposal, headed by hamas is far from its demands tonight, the new pressure on yongle and President Biden you open your mailbox and see the envelope from were Health Insurance company, you hold your breath will they pay for your childs treatment this time . He will open the letter and find that youve been denied. Again a month later, another letter arrived your premiums are going up again. They are banking record profits and still plan on increasing their rates by 12 how can the Health Insurance company get away with this when your gut is that a balance, your body gives you signs. 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And im excited to get back to low inflation, low unemployment senator, yes or no . Yes or no will you accept the Election Results of 2024, no matter who wins . That is my statement how many leaks . I said what i said, well talk about verbal gymnastics and under tim scott repeatedly refusing to say that he got the results for 2024 election, maybe because he might just happen to be on this green on the shortlist to be Donald Trumps next vice president. Not on that list, of course, is the former Lieutenant Governor geoff duncan is why the georgia republicans, who was pressured to change the election in 2020. And tonight, he is revealing in a brand new oped that he is voting for President Joe Biden in november hes also urging fellow republicans to do the same quote and i read a little portion of it. The healing of the Republican Party cannot begin with trump as president mesto from the untold damage at potentially awaits our country. Polo commentator, former Lieutenant Governor of georgia at geoff duncan joins me now. So good to have you on the tenant governor in recent weeks. Weve seen a lot of long time critics of the former president publicly saying that. So what im still going to vote for him, you actually voted and campaign for mac in 2020 why the Change Of Heart now . Well, weve been faking this long enough as republicans, Donald Trumps not a republican. He doesnt represent our brand. He doesnt represent our future. Hes a horrible human being at this point. Were watching that play out hourbyhour in the courtroom and weve been jamming this square peg through a round hole long enough, and its time to turn the page. Its time to move on. If were going to heal as a party and truly get back to doing the things that we should do. And thats be conservative, but not angry or crazy, or liars. We should, we should turn the page immediately from donald trump. And so thats really what im calling for it. It looked listening two clips like tim scott that you played coming into this is just painful. Its painful to listen to this. Its time to turn the page and move on. Youve called out mitch mcconnell. Youve called out your hampshire governor krista nunez. Youve called out bill barr for all supporting trump and they all say, look, its because of the policy. Now you have proposed that perhaps you have because going vote down the rest of the ballot as republicans to try to block by legislative agenda but then still vote for biden as the top of that ticket but wouldnt that mean that notothing really get done in washington for four years of bats, the follow does anybody think anythings gonna get done if Donald Trumps the president i mean, all hes going to do is go on. Theres been dead a tour around the world. Theres nothing thats going to be done. In fact, i would argue that would be more damaged done. Look to play for a conservative like me that cares about the future of this country is to build the necessary majorities in the congress so that we can have a meaningful checks and Balance System if joe bidens a president and look, ive said this in the oped. Im voting for a decent person that i disagree with on policies over a criminal defendant who has no moral compass. And thats not tough to argue. Those are proven facts well, in the past, ive heard from many republicans will say, look, if i cant bring myself to vote for trump, im going to write in someone else. Im still not going to vote for a democrat. You say youre going to vote for President Biden. There has been a lot of criticism. Im sure are coming your way for doing just that are saying just that. How do you respond to people who say . They have a third party option, right . Someone else in but why vote for a democrat look sometimes the best way to learn your lesson is to get beat. And donald trump needs to get beat. We need to move on as a party. We need to move on as a country. And certainly ive got concerns with some of the policies the President Biden follows and i hope to be able to like many other a be able to sway their influence on immigration and other issues that we disagree with wholeheartedly. But look to think Donald Trumps wholeheartedly a conservative is just fake news at its finest. Donald trumps not a conservative. He, he rationed 8 trillion worth of debt during his presidency. He told us he was going to build a wall. He built a photos photo station down at a doubt the border. This guy is a fake republican. We have to move on as republicans, we have two. And this is our first step. Do it, look, theres a lot of folks sitting at home that have said out loud on tv that theyre supporting donald trump, but there are watching this play out right here. Theyre reading this oped, wishing they probably had the courage to do the same thing its time to turn the page as public ins and move on. Well talk to you about georgia particularly because as you know, the polls show that there is a pretty close race for the presidency between biden and trump and hes actually leading according to the polling, its, its not so far away, but leading in georgia, which is a very important swing say, who cant see the screen, they have 51 towards trump 45 for biden in among Georgia Voters will voters in georgia, which has always been a unique place since 2020 in particular, will heed your warning i think georgians are going to vote against donald trump, right . I mean, at the end of the de, you have to win the suburbs in georgia if youre going to win an election, brian kemp prove that he won the suburbs he showed them that he was a job creator. He was honest human being. You did the right thing when it counted the most. And Donald Trumps not done that when these court cases play out on tv and suburbs, specific typically women in the suburbs are paying attention to these cases. Theres not a single one of them thats going, oh, you know what ive changed my mind on this donald trump guy. Hes just a fantastic human being. Hes a perfect leader for our country. Thats just not happening. I think as we get closer and closer to november, this election is going to pull further and further away from donald trump. And therefore joe biden i will end up walking away with the selection. Geoff duncan. Thank you so much. I want to continue our conversation with our panel here weve got female little commentator maria car dona, former republican congressman joe walsh, former state department spokesperson. They are hoc and molly ball is also back with us. So joe i mean is the former Lieutenant Governor geoff duncan a bit of a republican unicorn yes, he is. Look, i give them laura, a lot of credit because it takes courage and i know this myself as a republican four years ago when i came out and stood up and said, i support joe biden i knew at that moment as a republican, i was ending my careers are republican what geoff duncan is doing right now is hes ending his careers are republican it takes courage because unlike Chris Christie and bill barr and all the rest who say trump sucks, but i wont vote for biden. I give them credit, but look, theyre not moving on from trump i give duncan credit, but he says this isnt trumps not a republican bull crap. This is what the Republican Party is now. Its his party its not my party and sat duncans party. He agree was a career suicide. I mean, that in georgia, in particular. Well, it depends on how much of the map and how much of the party is still going to survive after the election, right . The majority of the american electorate, right now is independent. And thats because of the droves of people who have unregistered as republican and check the box saying, i and you have several Members Of Congress who have resigned just as last year. They have not said its because theyre anti trump and pro biden. But the younger ones in particular, including my gallagher from wisconsin, are really important state. They are calculating that even if trump wins, that there is going to be life after trump but theyre not doing what duncan is saying right now, which is coming out directly against him they are stepping back hoping that theres going to be an alternative future. What did democrats do with this . I mean, theres dunkin, somebody, if he is a unicorn, is it helpful to have this out there . Does this help them to budge Restroom Campaign . I think it absolutely is helpful for or brave souls like geoff duncan, like joe walsh and others to come out and to publicly say what kind of an Existential Threat donald trump will be. Two are country, because geoff duncan is very wellrespected especially in georgia. I think he could make a big difference in that incredibly important state as he talks about this. And my hope is that he will continue to talk about this and talk about the importance of making this moral choice, not just for the future of the Republican Party. And i agree with you, this is no longer the Republican Party that you all grew up with. But it can be again, because a party, the survival of a Political Party cant just depend on one person that will be gone when trump is gone we need to make sure trump has gone right now, maria, so should biden be actively reaching out to someone like duncan and having him guy rao should an absolute if he has or not this well, this just happened so lets give him what he might have an iphone you can call it quickly. We have been taxed numbers going on, but but but i will say this, the campaign is absolutely focused on trying to rally anyone and everyone who understands what a threat donald trump is for the future of not just the party again, for the future of our democracy, for the future of everyone who lives in this democracy. And for the future of every single voter who was looking at this contrast, right . What this election is about, let me get you in here, molly, im really curious about your opinion on this. When you when you look at and when you heard from senator tim scott as well, i want that that second Lieutenant Governor geoff duncan to hear that the inability to give a straight answer, but theres a real political calculation. Presenter attempts absolutely. And, you know, look, i think the Biden Campaign needs a lot more Geoff Duncans marias point, they need to be doing a lot more to reach out to the geoff duncan of the world. And what ive heard from a lot of antitrust republicans are conservative leaning independence is they feel like those overtures are not there now, maybe theyre just not there yet and the Biden Campaign has done some sort of, i would argue nominal outreach to haley voters to say, you know, youre still casting these protests votes against donald trump come have a home in our party, but they had not really been trying to broaden out the tent. They seem to have so far mostly been focused on shoring up their base keeping liberals in the tent, preventing these disaffected young people in particular, from continuing to bleed out on that end of the campaign. So i will be very curious to see as we head into the summer in the fall, as the time gets shorter before november, if there is more proactive outreach, particularly on policy, because what i hear from a lot of those conservative leaning independence is that they are actually coming home to the Republican Party, but they tried boycotting. But which one are you talking about . Are the ones that exist today . The one with trump in it because they look at the biden who promised to restore normalcy and order and be a uniter and be moderate and a lot of them dont feel like thats the way that hes governed. So i think biden has some real work to do with that segment of the electorate. Everyones bed, what the challenge is going to be, of course, the fact that the policies dont align when you have a on the ballot, democracy. Very important Existential Crisis is not polling as high as issues like Womens Health care and the economy well see what happens a lot to think about everyone standby, please, because ahead, israel steps up, airstrikes and Southern Gaza as a Cease Fire Proposal accepted by hamas as fall short. So where do they go from here and how could President Biden possibly influence it . 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So why would you rate based on hearable boss, what a terrible save save with dr. Wise and get a rate based on you during good hands with allstate im caitlin paul at the federal court in washington. And this is cnn fast moving developments tonight in the middle east as israel pushes four with the Military Operation in the garden city of raffa. Were now learning from sandi, Israeli Forces plan to take over the palestinian sayyed, a crossing in Southern Gaza. The key entry point for humanitarian aid and just a short time ago the sound of gunfire could be heard on the egyptian side of that crossing. As glaciers coming just hours after hamas announced it had agreed to a Ceasefire Proposal brokered by egypt and khader. Thats break celebrations and gaza. But it was shortlived. Afterwards. It will be proposal accepted by hamas was far from israels requirement. And we are learning that is different from the one israel of course, help to craft the Mosque Back Proposal includes a call for a permanent end to the war, which is a red line for Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu. But israel says that it will ill send negotiators to talk with the mediators. Now within israel protesters, including some hostage families, have taken to the streets to call for the Israeli Government to accept this Ceasefire Deal. My panel is back here along with you and in Global Affairs analysts, Kimberly Dozer and cnn Military Analysts as leyton, a kernel from the us air force. Colonel leighton, israel appeared to have this pressure stepped up. But so what is the operation look like . Now . Well laura, i think the basic idea is that the operation looks like an encirclement to what theyre going to try to do with the israelis are going to try to do is take the year, youre right by the border i wish there are indications that theyre doing that, plus they may move in forces from the east. Two tanks have already moved from israel into the eastern part of raffa and possibly also from the noise. So if they do that, theyre going to encircle the area that theyre targeting, how large that targeted area is, remains to be seen. But the big idea i think is that theyre going to try to eliminate hamas as much as they possibly can within raffa. If they do that, then you are trying to basically create conditions on the ground. Therell be favorable able to netanyahus being able to say that he has achieved some degree of victory. I want you to look for a second at these leaflets that were falling and ive been wondering all de, what was on them and what specifically they were telling the people who were there and they were dropped by the idf and they were ordering immediate evacuation of residents in eastern raffa. And you can see it also is telling heres the translation. Its telling residents in specific block they are in danger. So how do you have an evacuation of this size even work . Well, it really depends on everybody following the guidelines that the israelis have a software by block, block by block neighborhood by neighborhood. And theyve ive had these, this grid system for awhile now and theyre basically telling people to move according to those blocks. And if they do that, they say that theyre going to be safe, but we know that the israelis have had some issues maintaining the degree of targeting precision that they need to in order to keep that happening, kim, i thought that biden warned against this, man, Yahoo Essentially is saying, and from that yahoos point of view, hes got a limited window in which he can go after yahya sinwar, other top hamas figures that he thinks that the Israeli Defense forces think our Shelf Touring in the tunnels beneath raffa if this conflict ends, and netanyahu cant point to taking out the top hamas leadership inside gaza. That is a political loss for him. And that spells almost certain loss at the next time, he runs for office. But also this onslaught, this threatened on slot seems to have goose hamas into blinking and saying yes to a Ceasefire Deal of course now we know its there. Terms as they see them that are acceptable. This is also a way to give netanyahu a black eye because now its on israel, its on netanyahu to say, oh, well, this isnt the deal that we signed up for. After you see all these celebrations in gaza, et cetera, this is also part of the challenge that we see when you have these negotiations that are effectively lead by third parties and the parties arent talking to read better. Exactly. Right. I mean, egypt kind of friend to everybody in this cutter directly tied to hamas and the United States being involved representing israel. Hamas decided narratively, they were going to jump and theyre going to say, hey, were on board. We will do a sixweek Hostage Release program, knowing im specifically that Hostage Release is the fundamental challenge that netanyahu was facing politically is getting his people back. And now israel is going to have to come to the table directly in order to be able to move this forward. Ill be quick. Theyre playing games. Hamas is playing games and i know we call this netanyahu swore the entire work. If netanyahu were gone tomorrow, israel is going to go into rafah to do what they can do, eliminate hamas and politically at home. I think its incumbent upon biden as much as possible to stand with israel well, and he has up until now. But as you know, theres a huge challenge within his own coalition because of people who see the horrific images that are happening and thats what i am actually going to see what happens. Im sure we all are in terms of how will israel act in this, this next . Phase. Will there be horrific images . Will there be images that also then come back here . And goose up the protests that are happening. But i think at the end of the day, what people are going to wait four is what . What is biden going to do . And were not going to see what biden does on a daytoday basis. That is not his goal, he is going to have these conversations with netanyahu. Theyre not going to be made public nor should they, because thats not how you do diplomacy is you all very well know but he has been able to warn netanyahu in a way that i dont think any other leader has in terms of what the repercussions will be if he is not careful about how he adjudicates the swore. So molly i mean, if the fact that netanyahu is the one to say no and Biden At Home is being blamed how does this play . Well, look, i think biden has repeatedly sought to rein in netanyahu was mixed success. There have there are at least a couple of instances where that you could point to where the pressure from biden actually did cause netanyahu to pull back a little bit at the same time, we have also seen netanyahu repeatedly do things its the biden told him not to do and i think that makes the president look weak happen is i just wanted to add biden is going to capitol hill tomorrow, giving a speech in honor of the holocaust remembrance. And i think this is a really important opportunity for him to reset the narrative about antisemitism specifically, but also just to offer some moral clarity because i think his detractors on the left and the right feel that there has not been a moral vision guiding his his statements and often sort of equivocation as hes tried to sort of manage this war from a far. And so i think its an important speed. This is the challenge that we have inside israel, is that what does that moral narrative . Other than eliminating hamas . And there are many people within israel who would argue that actually the elimination of hamas by Occupying Gaza has taken the distraction away, taking attention away from whats going on in west bank, whats going up in the north of hezbollah. And those are the security priorities. Correlate and what are the impact of bidens influence on yahoo is there any theres a Significant Impact and i think the key thing to keep in mind as molly was mentioning the way in which the president is exercising his influence is very different from what you want people to do in a public domain. It is something where hes doing privately is making it work in a way . That is correct. From a diplomatic standpoint, whether wins him votes or not. Of course, theres going to be a different issue, but its going to be absolutely key to peace in the middle east, or at least the Movement Towards some type of piece. And thats exactly what pythons great. That was the issue shoe that i know that you raised as well, kim, on this very point was going on behind scenes and theres so much more to unpack as these events are quickly unfolding want to thank everyone today and thank you for watching. 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