Part of a history of humiliation which remains Unfinished Business good evening. Im fareed zakaria. Welcome to a special hour on taiwan the National Palace museum holds much of chinas most precious works of Arc Treasures from the Song Dynasty Vases from the ming dynasty 8,000 years of priceless history its chinas metropolitan museum of art. Its louvre but it is not in beijing it isnt taipei, the capital of taiwan race for territory began in 1949. There has to be no compromise at the end of a brutal civil war chinas leader, Chiang Kaishek, shipped those treasures to taiwan. The communist or in the young phi valley to keep them from im his rival. Mao zedong they carried those treasures with them because as the guardians of the chinese civilization, they felt that they had to also be the guardians of those objects. Year after year. The civil war goes on, chang and his nationalist party had been fighting mao and the communist as party since the 1920s in one of the bloodiest civil wars the world had seen. They have passed the Point Of No Return does he say the communist each side blames the other over 2 million soldiers were killed or wounded. With roughly 5 million civilians dead and Chiang Kaishek was about to lose this was a war between two parties fighting for soul of china. Ultimately, the communists won by red china. That is played powerful and ruthless communist coequal well, im soviet russian chairman mao declared the dawn of the peoples Republic Of China. The nationalist government flee to the independent island of promotion chang and his halfamillion troops escaped to taiwan. But claim their defeat was only a temporary setback liberate the homeland in the call to arms ciao, harbored this fantasy of recovery. The mainland Chiang Kaishek set up an entire government in exile with leaders for all of Mainland Chinas provinces. This was a pipe dream recovering the mainland. So pipe dream the regime mobilized the whole island to fulfill that pipe dream of retaking the mainland even though most of taiwans population was not even from their high pay, the taiwanese capital is the government feet of nationalist china taiwan had its own history and people a mix of Ethnic Chinese aborigines and other groups. Taiwans early as he is a series of wars john invasion. It had been occupied by japan since the late 1800s at The End Of World War Ii the nationalists took over imposing their own personal dictatorship and they brought their autocratic ways from the mainland. Theres no opposition party. Freedom is limited and Misty International accuses the government for amount of torturing political prisoner Tens Of Thousands were murdered by the regime can get shakes ruled became known as the white terror the rationale was that essentially taiwan was under siege, under siege from the forces of communism in fact, chairman mao was attacking Taiwanese Islands near the mainland throughout the 1950s for both sides. The civil war had never really ended they each are trying to indicate to the other this isnt over red china and warned been a president that he will not hesitate to commit American Armed portland maos attacks got americas attention. The addition of Nike Hercules Missile batteries on for moshe and newly led to the unthinkable the us responded by threatening to strike chinas coastal cities with new club weapons. One of the wars most historic meeting with americas relationship with taiwan had been complicated. I mean, can you buy food . Long live, the revolutionaries during the national china, it had bankrolled Chiang Kaishek in the civil war. Then turned its back on him after he lost and plan to abandon him. If mao invaded what in june of 1950 . We are fighting in korea or our own National Security and survival communist north korea invaded south korea and neighboring taiwan became a crucial cold war player the tune in washington, change to 180 degrees thats the most powerful nation, nevada, we have to assume responsibilities president harry truman sent the navy into the Taiwan Strait mr. Eisenhower, praise for most of all, keeping alive the cause of liberty and america back taiwan as the only legitimate Government Of China john kaishek those killed song, a major debt of gratitude for saving his regime because mao was about to send 1 million troops across the Taiwan Strait to finish his regime, jiang and Madame Chiang were pictured as the aging kennedys of a camelot the us now, ben, did Chiang Kaishek. Welcome to three china as a defender of freedom the dream of liberty. But by the 1970s times were changing america was losing a War In Vietnam and president Richard Nixon needed a new cold war strategy the greatest threat to United States was not china. It was the soviet union china could be an important supplement to the american deterrent against soviet adventurism in europe, as well as asia and worldwide nixon sent Henry Kissinger on a secret visit to Beijing East Meets West as a handshake bridges 22 years of hostility. The following year, he met with mao. We do not want laws to ideology or philosophy between peoples opening the door for a whole new relationship with Mainland China. Our two peoples tonight all of the future of the world in our hands meanwhile, at the United Nations maos china was invited in or sign guy sets taiwan hope has confirmed the was forced out you say final, leaving okay no, no. No question. Yeah. Want any question . On a few years later america recognized beijing as the real china. This will serve the interest of both our nations cutting off diplomatic relations with taiwan to the health the Republic Of China people in taiwan are freaking out this would leave taiwan in a globally highly isolated position. Taiwan had reached a dangerous low point whats more . Triangle check . Its longtime leader had died can son changjin war . Took over and pursued a bold new strategy to move taiwan towards democracy in order to save it he knew that the future of taiwan, would depend on support of the us. But how do you build up american support . You have to be really democratic john filled key Government Posts with native taiwanese massive pro democracy protests, which can further and helped spawn the Democratic Progressive Party taiwans First Big Political Opposition Martial Law was declared officially at an end in 1987. Chang lifted the Aisle Killens decades long state of martial law. John oversaw a Major Political liberalization inside taiwan. The following year yeah taiwans gorbachev passed away and his vice leading way, a native of taiwan, took the helm he regarded himself as someone standing up for the islands interests. And this was a real earthquake in terms of the domestic politics of the island of taiwan your mouth grossi under president lee arrive fast and furiously old unelected legislators from the mainland were forced out the first full elections for Parliament Brought new blood in we used to joke about how you have to go to taiwan every year because something is happening for the first time in every election candidates are out in force. Voters in taiwan you go to the polls as they directly elect their president for the first time. Taiwans first free president ial election was held in 1996. This election represents an historic Turning Points. The combination of nine years of reforms lead dung way, known as mr. Democracy, one decisively for the first time in chinas 4,000 year history. This is a major step as forming an authoritarian state for the worlds first genuinely democratic chinese society. A Chinese People had freely chosen its leader, wayne, im doing the impact of what happened will be Shaping Asia For the next 50 years back in beijing, the leadership here cannot allow any attempts to divide china. There was shock and rage. You warnings by chinas military, military exercises weeks earlier, china had launched missiles that landed close to taiwan. They jing insist democracy is not a suitable form of government. And rehearsed for an Amphibious Assault missile firings into the sea. Just to show their ire and their anger not only had the socalled renegade province gone, democratic, beijing acknowledges deep opposition to independence there was talk bulk of independence during the campaign these struck a defiant declaring that he would never give in to chinese pressure. A Nightmare Scenario through for the party of mouth taiwans troops remain on high alert taiwan were to consider proclaiming independence it would be literally explosive that is the one thing the mainland has said would provoke an attack coming up by one mainland for represents a stunning change. How a reunion between two bitter enemies suit possible. Once upon a time were. Building a better Postal Service. All parts working in sync to move your business. Bulwark for more value, more liability, and more ontime deliveries. The United States Postal Service built for how you business. I name is brian. How fire up. And because of tiktok, i have the power to educate people and hopefully save lives. When my son brian died and drunk driving accident, i put out a video about it and to try to stop that young people from drinking and driving. No other family has to go through what we did. Tick tock has the power to change society now i think thats where the power of tiktok lies. 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Its a Hazardous Task for ships trying to beat the communist block aid of combine the man who would eventually to lead, lead china dung shopping. And the future president of taiwan. Chunking guo what classmates and Close Friends in college they studied, together in the 1920s and lived in the same university dormitory. Two men got from the same cloth like many of their fellow communist and rival nationalists. There has to be no compromise whats more . These warring factions shared the same dream to reunify their homeland for china. What a difference, a word me, and that homeland was china like bitter Sibling Rivals. The two sides hated each other. Highest level talks between Communist China and its longtime nationalist adversary in 43 years. But there was always the hope that they would remain family this is the story of a family rift that seemed to be mending but became permanent much to the shock of beijing for decades, chinas Founding Revolutionary Mao Zedong had been threatening to liberate taiwan by force but all of that changed with maos successor, Deng Xiaoping deng pursued a kinder, gentler approach to the world including taiwan he made it an offer. He thought it couldnt refuse. If the island returned to the motherland it would be allowed to essentially run itself keeping its own political system, its economy and even its military his offer slogan was one country, two systems dungs old classmate challenging, whoa turned him down but quietly Trying Abandon his father. Shanghai shakes old pipe dream of taking back the mainland the Prime Minister visit to china in september 1982, provided the opportunity to open discussion done, then offered one country, two systems to the british colony of hong kong in the 1980s hoping it would eventually become an Lawyering Example for taiwan hong kong was supposed to be the test case to prove that the prc could be trusted to actually tolerate another system then suddenly a bizarre breakthrough when a taiwanese pilot hijacked a plane and defected to china the two sides were forced to end their silence for the First Time Since the Chinese Civil War leading to a surprising Rapprochement Thousands of time taiwan residents are returning to their families in hometowns here, families that had been separated for decades. Were now allowed to visit each other. Trade once trickle rose into the billions a National Unification counsel in taiwan explored a roadmap for a reunion and a historic summit in singapore was held to much fanfare there were a lot of people who are trying to come up with something should it be a commonwealth or for a confederation, or what about Something Like the eu but taiwan was undergoing a massive Sea Change Democracy was flourishing. President lees swept to victory with almost 54 of the vote and the taiwanese people were asserting their own unique identity. The question really became, why are we still worrying about china weve been separated since 1949. Why cant we just get a divorce beijing was shocked and appalled by this metamorphoses i dont think the Chinese Communist party and its leadership have ever understood the reality on the ground in taiwan whats more the bro Unification Nationalists lost power in 2000 to them more antimainland Democratic Progressive Party, a major democratic Turning Point in taiwan and though the nationalists regained power in 2008 and signed a flurry of trade deals with china they were met with massive protests known as the Sunflower Movement student since occupied Parliament Polls have just closed in taiwan soon. Taiwans more antibeijing party, the dpp bibi was back in power really very clear victory for saying one meanwhile, a new leader in the mold of mao was far less tolerant of bold assertions from its Sibling Rival xi jinping his Signature Initiative was chinas great rejuvenation restoring its historic status as a great power until taiwan is brought back into the fold, that Region Juvan Nation will not be seen as complete in hong kong she effectively eradicated one country, two systems bringing a freedom loving city to its knees taiwanese were riveted by what was happening in hong kong the message to taiwan was clear you could be next what happened to the golden boy of new jersey, governor jim aggrieved. I engaged in an adult consensual affair with another man. It was shocking was it an instant attraction . Yeah. Greed, these top fundraiser under investigation, he put a lover want to stay payroll. The reasons you immigrating resigned is a lot more complicated. 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Over 60 of the worlds chips come from this small island and 90 of the most advanced chips are made by Just One Company Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company microchips are the oil of the 21st century and if taiwan is attacked the whole world could grind to a halt lunging into a Global Growth Great Depression how did taiwan, this david and the pacific become the goliath of semiconductors . This is. The story of how one man rewrote taiwans destiny and how microchips might save its future 1949, Miles Communists saw sweeping across china driving Chiang Kaishek and the nationalists from the mainland left behind is a nation in chaos a young student, morris chang, also fleas leaving Hong Kong For Hover then mit. Eventually, he moves to cowboy country. My detected lago stuff all the United States and joins another premier institution Texas Instruments at the time, Ti Semiconductor is number one in the world. He was the company to work for if he were in the semiconductor thats true here. Chang becomes an american the Objective Semiconductors and a master of making chips. It was very exciting time for the Semiconductor Technology today and tomorrow, and new tool in chipmaking, it is more of an art than a science. The basic goal make it smaller, more reliable more economical. And thats what morris chang was particularly skilled at finding new ways to improve Product Quality and drive down the price while china was climbing the corporate ladder china shook the world detonating its First Nuclear bomb in 1964 meanwhile a bloody War In Vietnam had america considering bring a root three in asia. When Richard Nixon was elected, he gave a very prominent speech talking about having asian allies and partners stand up for their own defense rather than relying in the states if. Youre sitting in taiwan, that made you very, very nervous taiwan desperately he needed a way to keep its powerful ally on board the solution link taiwans economy much more closely to americas to give the us more skin in the game. The more us factories they had on the island, the more us companies would have a real stake and making sure that china didnt attack by 1969, Texas Instruments was in taiwan the island was industrializing quickly its socalled economic miracle, fast becoming the fame taiwan miracle. Meanwhile, Morris Chancts Korea had stalled at Texas Instruments. Soon taiwan came calling its government, asked him to lead not Just One Company, but to lead taiwans entire trip the street. It was an offer he couldnt refuse he saw a unique opportunity to build something almost from scratch now, in taiwan, chiang pioneered or radical new Business Model at the time, most Chip Companies designed and made, there from chips but manufacturing them was painstakingly difficult and expensive. So chang decided that taiwan would become the world bulls master chip maker. Building the chips that other companies designed the intuition was sort of like gutenberg. Gutenberg didnt write any books. He only printed more chain, didnt want to design a new chips. He only wanted to manufacture that chinas approach was a massive gamble at the time im, it was a crazy idea because there were no companies that existed that only designed to chips but can was determined in 1987 he founded the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or tsmc. It would give birth to a series of other startups that wouldnt have to invest in factories, wouldnt have to invest in equipment i mentioned only do the design and rely on him to manufacture. And that was essentially how taiwan changed the game the orders started rolling in looking out with equal and the Company Became an Industry Leader he has mz leave frock in his Technology Breakthrough and intel and samsung had no way to catch up. Today tsmc is the only Company Making the most powerful semiconductor in the latest iphones. A chip backed with 19 billion microscopic transistors each less than half the size of the coronavirus that mastery has made tsmc one of the most valuable companies in the world. Some see is the crown jewel. It has semiconductors that everybody wants but one of them the companys biggest customers is also taiwans biggest threat china is highly dependent on tsmc it got 70 of its chips from there in 2020 and this is something that makes them concern friday but also inked some in china say it must seize tsmc but could they its toe to the most valuable things about tsmc is its all engineers those engineers could refuse to work some believed tsmc isnt a target on taiwan but a Silicon Shield over it tsmc is going to be a deterrence against the idea of aggression against taiwan thats because an attack on taiwan and would likely shut down the Chip Industry and ruin chinas own economy working for Shoes Jinping that might be a risk worth taking for china. Its not just about chips, its about unification. That is part of their basic ethos coming up next what would an end . 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With capella universities, Game Changing now im ivan watson in the south china sea, and this is cnn picture. This chinese missile strikes wreaking i dont think taiwans military amid the Chaos A Decapitation Strike Chinese Special forces tried to kill or capture taiwans leaders meanwhile a full on amphibious the us assault with hundreds of thousands of troops crossing the Taiwan Strait this is one of the most Diets Scenarios Experts predict for chinese invasion of taiwan and it may happen sooner than you think beijing may be moving much faster than expected with its plans for his socalled Reunification Chinese leader xi jinping has said that hes sikhs a peaceful reunification. But he has also said that china will never commit to abandoning the use of force to reunify with taiwan and that he wants his military to be ready in three years. According to Us Intelligence a single spark could set the wheels of one motion. Experts say any kind of accidents that could escalate out of control hes a possibility. Something as simple as an accidental collision of chinese and taiwanese hes jets once we have an accident, we could see a range of the cascading actions that could eventually lead to a potential a Major Chinese use of force an initial force of 60,000 chinese troops could try to gain a foothold on the island paving the waveform up to 1 million more troops to arrive but taiwan would be no easy target much of its terrain as rocky and unforgiving very challenging for an Amphibious Assault are key to victory for china, experts say would be speak securing crucial footholds on the island before the United States and its allies could react beijing must think twice if they are not able to take taiwan over quickly. I think they need to pause before they add President Joe Biden has ripped he diddly said that the us would defend taiwan us forces, us Men And Women would defend taiwan in the event of a chinese invasion . Yes but it might take a while for the us to pull the trigger on such a massive operation. She could also try a very different approach, taking taiwan without Firing A Single Shot how by launching a massive blockade of the island with china would be doing is trying to choke taiwan to make its population and its Leadership Pitch relate taiwan is almost completely dependent on coal and natural gas imports for all of its electricity most of its food comes from abroad. Those supplies could run low in as little as two weeks, according to some analysts, bringing the island to its knees whatever she decides the scary fact is that taiwan may not be fully prepared to defend itself many Military Experts have urged taiwan to rely on the socalled Porcupine Strategy the idea there is for taiwan to make it so so prickly, so pointy that it would be difficult for china i wanted me to spend on a large number of small things things like shoulder fired missiles and mines these weapons are relatively small and simple to operate, yet potentially have a very high impact we have to be able to inflict so much pain and on our adversary and to ensure that they cannot come a step closer. Yet taiwan continues to order billions of dollars of bigger weapons from the us, like fighter jets and tanks. The china could destroy in a matter of hours and over all the talk of invasion looms, the specter of the most horrific threat, where totally in unchartered territory, i know has more than doubled its Nuclear Arsenal since 2020, according to the pentagon one of its the most ambitious military initiatives even without nuclear escalation. This is a war that all sides would lose we could see millions dead. A disaster of historic proportions. We find ourselves looking at numbers that are akin to world war ii up next, my thoughts on taiwan we deserve a real king because if he cannot protect his own family was he supposed to protect us do this . Myself . Come one man and the lost kingdom. Now streaming exclusively on max tmobile, build a 5g networks so powerful, it goes beyond the expected and now team 5g internet for homes and businesses is here. 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Com mesothelial mom, its all we do with local offices throughout the country and does help you get the compensation you deserve, 800 to eight to 44, 44 and finally, some of my own thoughts on the Subject A Couple of years ago, the economists did flared on its cover, the taiwan, this tiny island home to 24 million people, was the most dangerous place on earth. The reasons it came to that conclusion remained sound. In fact, have only grown stronger recently. The backdrop to the tensions over taiwan is of course, the new geopolitical rivalry between china and the United States ever since the rise of fusion paying and then donald trump, both nations have fundamentally shifted their attitudes its toward the other, from benign to wary. The hostile perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of china and the reality of america because dominant status make this inevitable a rising power faces an established one, creating a situation that may be in the words of graham some destined for war but are we destined for war . The us and china are unusual in that while increasingly geopolitical rivals theyre also deeply intertwined economically. One example during the cold war, at the peak of us soviet trade the two countries exchanged 5 billion of goods with each other in one year. China and the us to 5 in trade every few days. And that number has not dropped that much even as tariffs, bans and restrictions have grown in recent years in addition, china does not seem to be a revolutionary state seeking to overthrow the International System and present the world with an alternative ideology to america at ideological rivalry at the heart of the cold war is largely absent today. One thing that is present, however, is Nuclear Deterrence china and the us both have large arsenals, which should have the effect they have had elsewhere. From the us and soviet union to pakistan and india detouring all out war and yet, and yet there is the problem of taiwan that sits at the heart of us china relations china has never accepted the taiwan can be an independent country every leader, beginning with mao zedong, has a firm. The goal of reading unifying the two. But in the past, Communist China believed that it could wait because time was on its side eventually, the mainland with its massive economy and billion plus population, would draw the tiny island of 24 million into its orbit. That was the thinking but that premise is proving untrue taiwan has developed into a feisty democracy with a political culture defined by its political system and in stark contrast to china, over the past few decades, taiwan has gotten more determined, not to reunify with china so xi jinping must look at the situation and feel time is not on his side perhaps it would be better to act sooner than later. For america and its many allies in asia. Chinese aggression to retake taiwan would be unacceptable washington has been willing to except chinas claims on taiwan as long as it did not use coercion to achieve them, taiwan policy for all sides has been about tolerating fantasies about the future. As long as there are no practical changes in present most people in taiwan simply want to maintain the status quo and keep things going as they are. While the race its in the elections on the island brought to power for a third term, a party that is closely associated with the idea of an independent taiwan its worth noting that garden only 40 of the vote with the other 60 going to two candidates with less independence minded positions what does all this mean . That this issue will need to be managed rather than solved and managed very carefully both by beijing and washington. This is the one place on earth where there should be little room for for Macho Rhetoric and provocative actions all three sides should keep talking to ensure no misperceptions or miscalculations deterring china from invasion is cool pushaw but persuading taiwan to avoid needless provocation is also important washington should be careful not to needlessly provoke china as well. None of this is morally satisfying, but the stakes are high enough that one thing is clear where these tensions to be mismanaged with this conflict turn into war. It would be a lose, lose, lose for all three parties. Indeed, the whole world would suffer cataclysmic consequences better to kick. The can down the road, as long as possible, and hope it doesnt explode thank you for watching this special for our on taiwan. Im fareed zakaria