this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, we'll bring you latest on the israel hamas war and the new york time's nick kristoff is just back from the region and will give us a sense of what he calls the myths and the reality. then, is egypt part of the problem or part of the solution? it shares a border with israel and gaza. could had help during or after this brutal war? and the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world met face-to-face on wednesday. president xi jinping and joe biden shook hands and met for four hours. what was accomplished? i'll talk to australia's former prime minister kevin rudd and the spectator cindy yu. but first here is my take. of between the tragic ongoing war in gaza and the biden-xi summit, one global crisis is in danger of being forgotten. the war in ukraine. and this is a terrible time for it to le slipping from public conscious because ukraine paces trouble on two fronts. as the chief military commander has acknowledged, a stalemate has developed on the battle ground with russia. ukraine soldiers are fighting heroically in places like her done, but the lines are moving just a few kilometers. despite the drones this is looking like trench warfare during world war i. the second front is in the west. where support for ukraine is weakening. despite president biden's passionate advocacy and his package for aid for ukraine is not likely to pass any time soon. europeanans are losing their determination. during what was believed to be a private call, george maloney admitted i see there is a lot of fatigue. i have to say the truth from all of the sides. one side that is sticking to its guns is russia. the russian army has learned from its mistakes in the earl why i months of the war and has built powerful defensive lines in eastern and southern ukraine. had has laid huge mine fields and set up large armt units behind the trenches. they have to get past all three barriers to gain an inch of ground. russia is churning out weapons from shells to drones. it is much larger economy and population are enduring advantages that could only be encountered by high levels of western support. the russian strategy based on my conversations with russian officials and those close to them, is to hang tough, refuse any serious negotiations, and wait for november 2024. they believe there is at least an even chance that donald trump will be elected president and he will end the alliance and cut a deal with putin. whether that is an accurate analysis or not, it does suggest that moscow is unlikely to be willing to negotiate any time soon. is there anything that can be done to address these twin challenges? actually there is. a policy that could help on both fronts. set up an international and legal process by which russia's 300 billion plus of frozen reserves could be used to aid ukraine's reconstruction. which the war bank estimates would cost por than $400 billion over the next ten years. in one swoop, that would signal to putin that ukraine will not face a funding price is and even were trump to be elected these funds administered through an international body say in switzerland or belgium, could continue to flow to kyiv. there are challenges to this policy. russia's reserves lie in various countries but european allies hold most of it and they worry they don't have the legal authority to divert them. a distinguished scholar have written a case as to why it is legal and appropriate to go down the path of using russian reserves for ukraine's reconstruction. larry somers, robert zelek and philip zoellick has argued that it is good policy. russia has engaged if a massive and systemic violation of foyt law and norms. and that it is appropriate, indeed necessary for there to be some price to pay for this. to reject this logic in favor of one that protect's russia's property rights is perverse since russia has engaged in violations of ukraine's property rights and taken the lives of thousands of its civilians as well. russia's attack on ukraine is a core violation of any conception of a ruled based international border. and how that policy is pursued matters. in the past the u.s. has tried to enforce its own conception of international rules and norms unilaterally generating huge international opposition. the approach we should take this time is opposite. this policy should be rooted in international consensus and law and norms, legal opinions like tribes should be presented and international legal organization and process of adjudication of claims should be established and the funds handled through it. russia's assets and ukraine's reconstruction should serve as a building block for international law and norms that help shore up the rules based order. as somers and zoellick and zoellicko notes, if a country that engaged in flaked aggression might find that its dollar reserves are in jeopard, that is not a bad precedent for the world in disarray. so let's get started. earlier today, qatar's prime offered some hope that theize raely hostages might be freed soon. he's been mediating negotiates and good progress had been made in recent days and the only remaining obstacles were minor and logistical. let's go to jeremy diamond in tel aviv who has the latest. jeremy, you could give us a little sense of what are those minor longist cal obstacles that need to be overcome? >> reporter: well it seems athe it point a lot has to do with the mechanisms that are involved to get the hostages released for israel to abide on its side by the pause in fighting multiple days of pausing in fighting in order for the hostages to get out and for humanitarian aid to get in. but what is really important, that it appears that multiple parties involved into these talks all seem to be saying that we are closer than we ever have been to a deal that could see dozens of hostages freed from the gaza strip and returned to israel. we heard the qatar prime minister said that it is logistical and john finer just last hour telling jake tapper that we're closer than at any points in the negotiations since weeks ago and we also heard from the israeli ambassador who said that he was hopeful, the israeli ambassador to the united states, was hopeful there could be a deal in the coming days as well. it is important to underscore all of that optimism with what we have witnessed over last several weeks which is that we've seen at other points that we've come close to a potential deal and talks have fallen apart. and that is because the talks are freakily fraught and complex and not talking to each other. israel and hamas are talking via the qatari government and so that adds another layer of difficulty to all of this. >> and jeremy, briefly what is going on meanwhile in gaza? what is latest on the war, the violence? >> reporter: well, the israeli military still has yet to answer very important questions about a strike that took place at a united nationed school in the gaza strip. dozens people were kill and we have video showing dozens of bodies on the ground in both levels of the school. in one room you could see about a dozen bodies covered in dust and decks chat shattered and a massive hole in the wall. the united nations doesn't know who was responsible for the strike but already several arab governments are pointing to israel as the culprit. th the israeli military is looking into the incident. and there is one bright spot and more than 30 of the premature babies at the al shifa hospital have been evacuated from al shifa hospital to the southern part of the gaza strip and they are expected to then be evacuated to egypt. so some progress on that front. but overall, fareed, the humanitarian conditions are dire and the israeli military continuing to press ahead with its offensive. fareed. >> jeremy diamond in tel aviv, thank you so much. next on gps, i'll talk to nicholas kristoff who will dispel what he calls the smiths about this conflict. let's talk more about the israeli hist palestinian conflict with nicholas kristoff, columnist for "the new york times." he recently administratived israel and the west bank and has been writing on the war in my opinion. his latest column on the subject is called "what we get wrong about israel and gaza." hi, nick. you talk about three myths and i just want to quickly list them. the first is that this is a conflict in which it is absolutely morally clear all of the right is on one side and all of the wrong is on another and i point out it is a clash between two rights. you say that the israeli myth that the palestinians could be strong along indefinitely and the can kicked down the road indefinitely and the one i've heard so on in days and particularly from israeli friends, it is too bad that we have to use so much force but the only side only understands bruta brutal violence. we live in a rough neighborhood, we just have to show that we could be absolutely brutal and -- and perhaps even irrational in our use of violence. why do you think that is a myth, or in other words why do you think that is is wrong? >> i guess first of all, i would note there is a certain symmetry, just as israelis say that about palestinians, so palestinians say that about israelis. that there is -- we have no peace partner. only way to get attention to this cause is to blow things up and i don't think it works. having watched this crisis as you have over the years, what you do see is that violence and hardliners tend to lead to violence and hardliners on the other side. why is netanyahu in power? he took power after hamas was engagek in suicide bombings. originally back in 1990s. it was hamas as take over of gaza that kind of helped destroy the israeli left and the labor party there. and so many times in gaza, i've talked to children and you ask them what they want to be and they don't want to be a firefighter or a doctor. they want to be shahid, martyrs because they've lost family members close to them and i think that we're again in this cycle of violence that simply perpetuates it and i don't think that is going to advance israeli interests, or obviously palestinian interests when half of 1% of the gaza population has already been killed. >> do you think that -- you talk about how each side in a sense, you know, reinforces the other. do you think it is cynical as -- as the hardliners on each side almost want each other. there were many reports about how netanyahu said we needhamas because it ensures there will never be a palestinian state. we have to different parties and one of which is a terror group. >> so, fareed, i think for the most part, people, you know, the israeli right, the violent end of the palestinians, for the most part i think they're doing what they think will help their own interests. but is there an element of what you say? and netanyahu thinking that one way of undermining a palestinian authority and reducing the possibility of a palestinian state down the road is to support hamas, absolutely. and is one element of hamas's attack the idea that they could do what a scholar friend of mine calls jujitsu, have israel overreact and then create international sympathy for palestinians and project this issue on to the international agenda, yeah, i think that is an element. and one thing that i think both sides have in common, including hamas, is that they don't greatly care for the lives of palestinian civilians. >> you say in your column, based on your observations in the region, hamas may be winning. explain what you mean. >> so, as far as we understand, hamas motives -- they wanted to fundamentally change the dynamic with a brutal attack on israel. and that was one aim of just the extraordinary savagery of the attack. so, israel in the course of a not terribly precise set of attacks, a ferocious set of bombings, i think clearly has elevated the palestinian cause. it has dissipating the initial sympathy for israel. and i think it has also put israel on a compressed timeline. it will mark it harder to continue the fight against hamas indefinitely. i think there is enormous pressure on israel to curtail this. and you noknow, i look around a i don't see obvious signs that homeas's military power has been hugely degraded but i do see hamas has managed to elevate the palestinian cause, generate sympathy and the focus is also moved off the israeli hostages, who one would hope would be a greater attempt to get them back. >> very briefly, nick, you were in the west bank and anything to report from there that struck you? >> oh, boy, fareed, it is so sad. i don't think i've ever seen it just so on edge, so much -- people have lost hope. they're convinced that again that israelis only understand violence. there is no peace option down the road. that there is no trust. and in that context, i think there are some risk of explosion. i wonder whether that might extend to jordan as well given its large palestinian population. and i just really worry that the next chapter of this is going to be something -- some big crisis in the west bank. >> nick kristoff, always a pleasure. i waned to mentioned nick's efforts to identify the best nonprofits to support in the holiday season. go to kristoffimpact.org to see his list, it is on "the new york times" website as well. and next, the most important neighborhood in thisis conflict- egypt.t. when we e come back. c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. there is currently only one viable way out of gaza. the rafah border crossing controlled by egypt. it opens under the sinai peninsula. egypt's government kept the crossing closed and now it is opened to let a trickle of aid into gaza and a few foreigners out into egypt. that despite fact that the egyptian rally has supported the palestinians in gaza so what is motivating the decisions and what whole might the nation play once the hot war is over. joining me now is tariq massud from harvard. help us understand, because generally speaking have tended to view egypt as a country that has been part of the containment of hamas. it was enforcing the blockade in various ways over the last 16 years. it doesn't let palestinians in. how has it reacted to this attack, the hamas attack. >> thanks. great question. thanks for having me, it is good to be with you, despite the catastrophic circumstances. so look, the egyptian reaction to what happened on october 7th is very plain. they've been calling since day one for a cease-fire. one of the problems and i think nick kristoff mentioned this in your earlier segment, we've blown past the horrors of october 7th. the egyptians moved past it almost immediately because they felt they could see what was coming down the pike which was a massive retaliation operation by the netanyahu government in gaza that would yield a humanitarian crisis of incredible proer portions and that would put egypt under a great deal of pressure. so egypt from the very beginning has been calling for a cease-fire. they've been calling for restraint. they convened, a peace conference, in october, that didn't declare anything. they are trying to negotiate with hamas to get a cease-fire in exchange for the release of some hostages. >> but there are a lot of people who think the egyptian government tends to play this game of public support but privately they kind of want israel to destroy hamas? >> i think if the israeli as could invent a weapon that would only target hamas members and leave the people of the -- and the infrastructure in tact, but the egyptians know there isn't such a thing. and if you look their conduct and public statements, they've been telling the israelis, be careful, stop. if you look at statements of the foreign ministry and the statements of president sisi, i think they're calling for it publicly and behind closed doors. >> but sisi has been known to be tough on versions of hamas in egypt, the muslim brotherhood for example, tens of thousands of members are jailed. is he doing this because public opinion in egypt is very strongly pro-palestinian. >> opinion in egypt is pro-palestinian. but the egypt government emerges from the egyptian people and almost without exception, egypt an officials feel a great deal of sympathy with gaza and according to some accounts there have been more civilians killed in gaza in the last six weeks than civilian ukraines killed since february of 2022. so this is a humanitarian crisis of -- >> so why wouldn't they let palestinians in egypt. >> if you read the president's statements, he said in part that allowing them into egypt will destabilize egypt because suddenly you have millions of people, millions in the sinai peninsula and would might be hamas fighters who would use egypt as a staging ground for their operations against israel. and then suddenly egypt, which since the peace treaty with israels about han part of the solution in the region, would once again be drawn into the theater of war and be part of the problem. so sisi is very concern about that. and the other thing that he's concerned about publicly and every egypt an will say publicly, they do not want to be part of the displacement of palestinians from gaza because they believe once they are pushed out the netanyahu government will never let them back in. so there are fears, i don't know if their credible, but deeply felt that egypt does not want to be determined to be a second place from their lands. >> and post conflict. there are all of these discussions about an arab force or an arab government or palestinian authority. what do you think happens post conflict? >> i think that is a very difficult question. i think there is a couple of things. some of the proposals that have been offered seem more like pipe dreams. the idea that egypt and saudi arabia would come in and somehow governor gaza, it -- instead of hamas or israel, seems unrealistic, the egyptians have a difficult time governing themselves. i think there is also not attention paid to the cost to egypt of being involved in such a thing. what is that line said about france, if france catches a cold and if they sneeze and the middle east gets a cancer. and to put the middle east in this position very destabilizing to the country is one that should give us real pause. the issue in gaza is once hamas has been tamed, the issue is establishing governance. i know how we don't do that and that is be getting beleaguered countries in crisis like egypt to try to shoulder that burden. >> thank you. always a pleasure. >> thanksgiving you. and xi and biden, kevin rudd tells us what happened. the most important bilateral relationship in the world, that is how president xi described the u.s.-china relationship as he sat with president biden this week in california. four-hour meeting was first in a year amid very strained relations between the two nations. joining me to discuss the outcome of the summit and what lies ahead is one of the world's lea leading china experts, kevin rudd, and he is now the ambassador to the united states. he's also the author of the avoidable war, on the dangers of a u.s.-china conflict. kevin, welcome. tell us, it seemed to me that this was very different mood music from what we have been hearing from u.s.-china meetings ever since really the start of the biden administration, that anchorage summit with the neutral accusations. did it strike you that way, and if so, why? >> well, fareed, i think it is both different mood music and it is also a different base note as well. i think having looked at those meetings over the last 30 or 40 years of my own career, you get to a sense of the rhythms and the changes within each of them. and over the last two years we've gone from near catastrophic engagement, you mentioned anchorage, to where we are now, to a meeting if you were to summarize it up, it is about stabilizing the geopolitical relationship and if they could bring it about, making it more strategically predictable. why has china moved in that direction? i think the overwhelming domestic driving force for xi jinping has been a weakening chinese economy. the growth numbers are bad and that is part of geopolitical uncertainty affecting international and domestic investors within the chinese economy. there are other factors too. so from his point of view, bringing the geopolitical temperature down a bit serves the underlying economic interests and for america, the biden administration, legitimately, has sought stability if the u.s.-china relationship because it does not want to take these two great powers to the edge of a catastrophic conflict. >> do you think on the american side, part of what is also motivating washington in having a more -- because washington's tune has also changed. is it some of the concerns or pressure from business -- i mean you could also hear the sigh of relief coming out of the likes of tim cook and elon musk that things are stabilizing. there is a lot of business to be had. xi made that point. could that be one the factors here? >> i don't really think so. i look very carefully at what the administration has said and done over the last 12 months and celeb essentially the administration policy has not fundamentally changed. it was said you should not coercion economically our allies and we need to achieve progress in mill mill and on things like climate change and united states has said that we want a stable and predictable relationship. i think the big change dynamic here in all fairness to the u.s. fareed, has been the depth of the chinese economic slowdown has brought about a fundamental look at this relationship. and speaking of major american corporates, of course they'll breathe a sigh of relief. and they should. but here the proof of the pudding will lie in the eating. that is we could talk about a resumption of mill-mill dialogue between the pla and the armed forces, it is the substance of the new tracks and what it will deliver will determine whether there is a material change in geopolitical instability across the taiwan strait and in the south china sea and what boardrooms are reacting around the world to in a crisis and con flick and war and so corporates are wanting to know the dialogue is resumed and what is that producing in storm terms of a de-escalation across the taiwan straits. >> and what did you hear from that front. and xi said this is the red of red lines from taiwan and we ask you not to help taiwan independence and not keep arming taiwan and the administration for its part keeps saying we adhere by what the status quo, all of the various communeays, but we also ask china not to send as many airplanes and get as close to the border as it is getting. so did you see anything different here or something that is reassuring? >> in the official formula on the chinese side and i've just read the chinese text, there is no change in their formulation on taiwan or for that matter the south china sea. now one practical area that we could see progress in if china was serious would be to cause chinese aircraft to stop crossing the median line in the taiwan straits which they now do regularly causing taiwanese fighter jets to scramble and so many near incidents that it is frightening. that is been a patent since the pelosi visit to taiwan not so long ago. returning to the status quo on that would be good. plus, frankly, depending on the outcome in the taiwanese presidential elections in february, our friends in beijing will not recourse to other forms of military and economic coercive pressure against whatever political outcome the taiwanese electrical process delivers. there are two measures that go back to affecting the geopolitical climate, seen by the boardrooms of world which is why xi jinping has his target most. >> kevin rudd, we learn from you when we listen to you. thank you so much. >> good to be with you, fareed. next, more, on what is the view from china and what are they saying with we come back. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) get exclusive offers on select new volvo models. contact your volvo retailer to learn more. let's keep talking about the biden-xi summit. how was it perceived in china and what is the mood in kline these days. i'm joined by cindy yu from the spectator and hosted the chinese whispers podcast. welcome, cindy. so kevin rudd thought that the economy and the state of the economy was the principle motivator behind xi's course correction. you were in china recently. do you get the sense that people are anxious about the economy there. >> i think so. there is a long tail of economic recovery happening, instead of this post covid bounce, it is a long schlep this year. when i was this china over the summer, no matter who i spoke to, whether it was your local taxi person, or a high ranking business man in shanghai, the story was very much the same. don't feel economically secure right now, don't feel confident in the state of the country. and so people are being very careful about what they're spending money on. about their views for the future if their making business decisions and holding off for now. i think basically what we're seeing is that the last three years of zero covid, they didn't go past that quickly. they don't just disappear. people are a bit traumatized and their wallets and bank accounts are certainly not as healthy as they were in 2019. and so this china, consumer confidence is very much low at the moment and that is manifesting itself in all sorts of ways. >> so the statistics that i've been struck by looking at is if you look at 2019, first six months of 2019, 8.5 million tourists visited china, first six months of 2023 it is about a half a million. and so there is a dramatic falloff. and it feels like a story u china that was once was very integrated into the world, close itself off. did you see that? >> during the pandemic in particular there were moment where's it felt like chinese people were suspicious of foreigners. there was one point they thought foreigners was bringing covid into china and we don't want to go out there when covid is not being controlled in the rest of the world. it is easy to forget how quickly that regime has gone. that zero covid regime. less than a year ago, people with this mentality will take a longer to shift. that is the psychological part of it and there is the economic part which is the direct flight. some of those that were canceled during the pandemic hasn't been resumed and that is what was on the agenda for biden and xi this week. and it will go back to the early 90s and the 2010s and it depends on geopolitics. so, yeah, we'll have to see. >> interesting. now when you look at the way china is playing the biden-xi visit, it is back to normal in the sense of good relations, friendly and the american and chinese are great friends none of that old suspicion. and they're marveling that joe biden liked the chinese car that xi was driving. do you think this is a concerted state effort to shift the narrative? >> absolutely. this apec summit has been in the planning for months now. and as kevin rudd said, ever since february, the spy balloon incident and both sides have been thinking how do we pull this back. and the americans have been making more overtures, going to china over the summer but the chinese have been preparing for this. they have been looking forward to this summit. and you see that in state media, theres is a shift, instead of america is doing wrong, how did the chinese and americans collaborate during the second world war, and elon musk, we like elon musk and then from this summit one of things that is going viral is biden showing xi jinping from san francisco from 38 years ago and this chumminess is going viral on chinese social media. so it is all quite carefully curated but for the chinese people, for public opinion, generalizing about 1.4 billion people, it is not a deep seated anti-american, it is dampened down by state narratives. so how deeply that kind of anti-americanism is, it is not too deep. but it is important to say that in the chinese portrayal of the event it always front and center. xi saying i don't believe in a second korld war and i don't believe in this and that and biden is a supportive actor and that is important to keep in mind. >> it is a communist country with a supreme leader. >> absolutely, yes. >> when you were in china, were there things that struck you as different in post covid china that surprised you, give us a feel for the place. >> i tlhought there would be moe covid signs. in the u.k., there are legacies from covid, the social distancing posts that remind you of the era. in the places that i went to in china and in beijing and shanghai, all of those were gone. so the covid infrastructure, i was shocked by how quickly it left. but what shocked many he even more than that was the amount of surveillance that there is in china. now compared to when the last time i was there in 2019. and i'm not saying this is government surveillance but it is technology behind the cctv cameras and that private companies and local governments have taken and run away with. such that you'll be driving down a really long road in a major city in kline and cameras will be flashing at you. not because you're speeding because they want to know what is in what car. if i go and commit an armed robbery, they would be able to track me down very quickly because of the amount of data created by the nexus of governments. so i thought that was so interesting how prevalent that technology advancement has happened in china as a change happens, it happens very fast. >> and do you feel as though there is a sense of relief that relatio relations with the u.s. are better? what was the underlying condition for people -- for ordinary people? >> definitely, because we talk about the chinese economy slowing and in the west it is easy to think because the ccp has screwed it up. they have done something wrong. but a lot of people thought it was the americans having their boot on our neck. why are they at us and trying to contain us. so good relations with america has been almosted again on social media. it is a big country and it is hard without scientific polling for obvious reasons. >> well you give us a very good picture. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you to cindy and to all of you for being part of my program thisis week. i i will see y you next week.

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