Transcripts For CNBC Street 20240703

Jassey flags higher capss ahead we want to meaningly expand Capital Expenditure in 2024. And wall street looking to start on a down slope, their worst in seven months. You can also see futures also in the red. Good morning and welcome to street signs. As we mentioned, pharma is in focus. Gsk raised its guidance. Haleon is broadly higher. S sylvia is here. Theyre up by 1. 6 , this isais after the Company Announced this morning its increased its turnover expectations for the year. It says it will be in the upper part of the 5 to 7 range they had guided earlier, but they also said profit operating growth will be in the range of 9 to 11 real estate than the previous 10 to 11 . The First Quarter came in at slightly above what analysts were expecting at 7. 3 billion pounds, however, the company also said in the First Quarter, they had to account for significant legal charges related to the litigation, however, some analysts suggest that the process could be concluded at some point this year. The ceo also said in a statement this morning that she expects this strong momentum to continue and looks forward to other meaningful growth. Other analysts have said they still think the stock is likely to underperform this year. They believe that their pipeline is not sufficient to actually offset some of the risks when it comes to gsk. Now, briefly looking at haleon and their results came in broadly in line with what analysts were expecting. They reported a risk knew decline of 2. 2 . They explained that, suggesting that it has to do with an fx impact. The ceo also said, however, that the outlook could be still challenging, so there could still be some downward moves in the stock Going Forward due to some of the challenges theyve highlighted. Nonetheless, shares over the last 12 months are down about 3 . Lets see how else investors will continue to react. You can see it on your screen. Shares so far are down by 1. 6 at this stage, frank. Thank you very much. Were also joined by emily thiel joining us right here. Emily, good morning. Good to meet you in person. Thanks for having me. Lets start off with gsk. You and your colleagues had it at equal weight. Now that weve seen the report, whats your take on the stock . Certainly the guidance raised was unexpected. Gsk tends to be a little more conservative in their forecasting, so i think thats resulted in the shares going up. Strong Operational Performance from gsk, although, i think no major pipeline updates today, so that will be the focus of the call. When can we expect readouts, how will we look at the pipeline Going Forward. They gained a 2 market share, a stable source of revenue. Those patients have to take the drugs on a daily basis and regular basis. You mentioned the increase in guidance. Thats kind of atypical with this company. What in your mind justified this raise . Strong performance on the top line and the operating margin. There were some one offs in the corner, but gsk has since they separated haleon, have been typically operating an performance. And theyre exceeding expectations. However, they have this looming patent cliff toward the end of the decade, and thats what investors are focused on. For the first have the forecast seems quite strong. What about the rest of 2024 . For gsk, the second half of the year will be about h the rsv vaccine. They have a competitor in moderna in the second of the year. Thats going to be the go was. Can gsk maintain their leadership in the rsv vaccine. Tomorrow were going to hear from novo nordisk. What are you expecting to hear and how does that relate to what were hearing this morning from gsk . Thats what everybody is waiting for. For a company thats been performing so well, theyre looking at their supply of wegovy. Their prescription front looked a little light. We saw yesterday eli lilly missed on mounjaro. But they raised guidance and said they were feeling much more confident in supply. Even if nor voevo were to miss also some very interesting news from u. S. Regulators, challenging some of their patents for ozempic. Changing the drug in the one space and calling them junk patents. You laughed. It sounds like you disagree. Youve seen aggressiveness in theattack. How possible is it the patent will be taken away and taking away market share i think the ip landscape in the u. S. , the battle between the companies and regulators has been going on for quite some time. I think were feeling very comfortable that the first patents on ozempic will be in the early part of the next de decade. But one thing thats unique about the obesity market, the numbers are so big, were thinking that the scale is going to be tough for generics to really displace the brands in a big way. Novo is kind of unique in that regard. Its interesting that you say that. When it comes to the weight loss drugs, you have to take them on a fairly regular basis. For example, you mentioned ozempic has first mover advantage and has been a gamechanger. But when we see a drug like viagra, for example, people tend to go to the brand names. People think somethings happening with ozempic. The price is going down year after year. Thats in focus with a congressional hearing to be held in the near future. We expect the price to come down, but it will be taken care of with volume. I think given the supply constraints, people are going to take whatever they can get their hands on and what can be covered by insurance in the u. S. I also want to take a look at the broader sector. Weve heard from others. I want to get your sense on how its been for the overall quarter sector and how these characteristics help the sector so far . Great question. We had a title, so far, so good. I think expectations going into the First Quarter were pretty low. Weve seen companies not raise guidance. So there generally has been a positive reaction. Astrazeneca is one that stands out in particular. I think where pharma had kind of been a sector, the strong result season plus obviously all the concerns about macrodoes feel like perhaps were seeing some general lists come back into the space. Is it likely to continue . It seems like it. The earnings momentum will probably continue into the first half of the year. We have the large cancer conference in june, which is always a great event for the sector. So theres a lot to come. I want to have a final thought on gsk and haleon because obviously we saw the spinoff lapping in 2022, and obviously we also know mergers and acquisitions are very important for this specific part of the sector. Im wondering what sort of the likelihood that u. S. Will affect pharma . Is there going to be more activity . We saw a big flurry of activity in q4 last year. Theres been a pause in the avt, but most of the European Companies we work we have clear balance sheets. Theres little appetite for big deals. Thats what investors want. They want these singledigit billions types of deals, nothing transformative. As long as its small cash deals, people have no problem with that. I had a flash fire. When i interviewed the ceo of novartis, voetons. Yes. Anglo american chair to meet with the top shareholders over bhp bid. He said he was banned from proposing the 39 billion bid and he said business was proceeding as usual. They rejected last weeks proposal saying it was too opportunistic, however, right ters reported theyre improving. You can see shares up 1. 25 . Were also taking a look at next. They maintained its forecast of 2. 5 sales growth across the year. You can see shares are down just a half a percent. And as on the martin shares are on the move. The luxury carmaker made fewer cars than expected. It has a plan to ramp up its new Production Model and keep its outlook unchanged. Investor didnt like that. 7 decline when it comes to Aston Martins shares. And most of europe is taking the day off due to a european holiday. Ftse up a third of a percent. We mentioned some of the stocks moving the ftse. Angloamerican pushing the stocks. We also want to take a look at u. S. Futures ahead of a big fed decision day today. Coming up well hear from fed chair jay powell around 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. No Rate Decision expected. You can see markets trading lower. It appears the dow would open at just about 50 points lower, the nasdaq falling close to 1 again in the premarket. We have seen a lot of movement in the premarket in the u. S. Big day coming up. Coming up here on this show, weve got a big show for you. Euros and scents. The new fragrance as spanish beauty brand puig gets ready for s rkitmaet debut. Well have all the details coming up. Pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and its ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation tv and get 2 months free what is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul is your gateway back home. So what is cirkul . Its your water, your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. Raising you was no bed of roses. Are you getting me anything for mothers day . Go to 1800flowers. Com. Oh my gosh wow gorgeous i feel like royalty. Thank you. 1800flowers. Com. Happy mothers day. Happy mothers day welcome back to street signs. Bva approaches sabadell for a potential merger deal. Assets are approaching 1 trillion euros. It comes four years after previous negotiations between the two banks collapsed. You can see sabadell shares up just over 3 . Lvmh denies reports that its looking to sell marc jacobs. Lvmh, which owns just about 80 of marc jacobs is working on restructuring the affordable fashion brand for years. Luxury cruise operator viking reported ly showed it prices at 248 a share. Its the biggest u. S. Stockmarket debut of 2024. And were going to hear from the ceo of viking river cruises on squasquawk on the street a 8 15. Puig shares are 24. 50, top of the range. Its a fun name to say it. Puig. How do you say it . We were wondering how to say it. Its not a well known name outside of spain. Puig. They have a lot of famous brands. Big, big names in the field there. So theyre still led by the founding family and puig is the chair. He said they would bring discipline. Now we have the details of this. The very top of the range. Its been oversubscribed. It gives the market cap. The family would maintain a controlling stake here. We know theres been a bit of a slowdown a wiwith the luxury. Beauty and fragrance are a big player in that area there. So they have big brands we just talked about. We talked about a fragrance thats growing, one of the top end luxuries. Some of the brands have more niche and more specialized perfumes. They have ten brands acquired in the past 12 years. Theyre on a very good trajectory. They may be benefitting from a lipstick effect. T theres a big squeeze out of luxury buying but some treat themselves. Again, players coming to the field, theres been a lot of ipos in europe. Some have gone well and others not so well. Well have to wait to see how this one goes and whether that opens the door to more players. Golden goose from italy is looking at playing in it. I didnt recognize how many highprofile brands they had in this puig umbrella. I thought it was really interesting that theyre going to control so much of this company. Is this a company thats going to ideally stay in the family for generations similar to an lvmh . Is that the case . Its a Third Generation thats still in charge of the group. Its very typical of european luxury groups. They always have family control, family in charge there. Well have to see who takes over the ceo whos over 65 now. Whether that opens the door for someone from the family taking over or someone outside, well have to see. You dont know this, charlotte, but i Love Christian louboutin shoes. I see them all the time and i want to get them. I hope the ceo comes on and offers me a job. Im not going to take it. Charlotte, thank you very much. Arabile still has much more on the action and some of the markets newest action. I the we have you for at least two more weeks, right . More than that. Theres a question whether youre here. Youre still here thankfully. The louboutin, the red soles being significant. Heres something significant. Significantly as youve been speaking about the ipos, deal making has come back to the forefront particularly this year. Weve seen a lot of activity, question marks around the mining industry, and ipos certainly at play. 14 euros is pretty much the price that was anticipated on that one for rubric. Overall, though, lets take a look at the month and see how things have faired for the first month in the Second Quarter of the year. European markets getting their first negative session. You did see an uptick for the uk market, the ftse 100 moving higher, 2. 4 . Certainly some of the mining deals have been in play. Basic resources being some of the key sectors to look out for. Lets get into those sectors as well. Youll see basic resources up 10 on the month then. Of course, gold moved significantly high. Oil prices moved up to around 90 a barrel. You saw copper go up nearly 14 in the month of april alone. That was its best month since february of 2021. That has helped with basic resources moving higher. Also others going up. The rest of the European Market fell into negative territory. In fact, the autos are the worst ones, going down more than 6 . In terms of stocks, gainers and losers, angloamerican is at the top. That bid by bhp, yes, theyve decided theyre not going to take it up at present in the first part of the deal with bhp considering the uptick of that and further increasing their price. The initial price was 24. 08 25. 08. I would pause that. 26. 04. Its moved significantly higher. Phillips as well after its Earnings Results and agreeing to agreements when it comes to its ventilators out of the United States or securing some deals there. More than 30 higher with highs moving up more than 20 . A lot of the tech players are managing to find a few losses across europe. Frank, it was negative across the board. But there was an uptick. Oil and resources man annaging to find some gains. We ooh gore ing to turn our attention to the u. S. The dj trans falling. Some logistics companies, they warned of challenging conditions in the freight industry amid the ongoing prices in the middle east and weaker prices. Its great to have you here. With were just talking about the dow transports in the u. S. Just kind of button it up for us very quickly before we get into company specifics. What is the Global Supply chain looking like right now. We had the huge shot from the pandemic and smaller shots like whats going on in the middle east. Chaos is good for shipping. Chaos is good for complex supply chain. What were see in 2024 or the end of 2023 is the downward pressure on the trade triggered is coming to an end. So whether you look at the air cargo market or sea cargo market, weve seen a nice uptick. Air cargo is growing at about 10 . I dont think demand in particular is at issue. Its just what the industry is battling with and from the windfall of gain. By the way, you said that long longwinded in the u. S. You have a long one like complexitys good. As you pointed out, intel of the Global Supply chain, i think the fragmentation of supply chain or a lot of the Global Companies talking about china plus one, china plus zero, all of these ensure that more and more intermediate is good to move from one place to the other. You look at it with respect to warehousing and custom. Lets get to one of the Biggest Logistics Companies in the world. A key metric for maersk, they move own liners. Theres a pull forward for demand of goods that happened during the pandemic. The estimate is for 7. 5 billion for ocean revenue. Does that represent a good quarter . Are we in a normalized supply chain or disrupted . Were certainly in a disrupted supply chain. Our view is were structurally perhaps entering into a strong downcycle, but well continue to see the volatility. We have a good peak into how the First Quarter has been. Its surprisingly a strong quarter. So in terms of the freight trade, were looking somewhere in the range of 10 to 20 . So going into the results, were actuallybullish on it. We think theres a good number that maersk will end on a higher range. All the red sea disruption did is push the downcycle from 2024 to 2025. The divergence from the red sea is not likely to get softer any soon. It could get absorbed with the demand in trade, which means that probably 25 will see a trajectory. Another global strategic industry, dhl, i noticed a bunch of Management Changes and also what are you expecting from them . Last quarter they saw weakness in supply chain. Are you expecting that this quarter . Yes. This quarter were cruising from dhls perspective. All eyes will be on whether were on the cusp of seeing a b2 b recovery. We expect freighting to normalize, but theres an Inflection Point which will be key for dhl to perform. I think its a question a lot of investors are trying to figure out. As we sear in the in the u. S. A europe, theyre looking for supply chains closer to home. Why is that a logistics issue for companies . We hear this all the time. I think a lot of the time people are just not appreciating the size of todays chinas moring base, so all the outsourcing weve seen or near sourcing in terms of the grand scheme of things, its tie in. So while were seeing mexico is growing quite rapidly, vietnam to the u. S. Trade is growing rapidly, but thats happening on the back of china. China, trade is booming. Essentially it tells us its easier said than done moving the entire supply chain from one place to another. In fact, we hosted a ceo from maersk a couple of weeks ago. One thing that caught my attention. To shorten the supply chain, it needs to get longer first. Wait, what . That doesnt make sense. You can ask a foxcom to move its manufacturing away from china to under ya, but the next few weeks of suppliers, they still remain where they are, which means youll see a lot of Good Movement before you finally find the entire ecosystem that works as a cluster. Interesting. Youre telling me longer equals shorter. The math isnt quite math. It is great to have you here. Thank you very much. Still to come here on this show, ai delivers for amazon, boosting its revenue. We will break down the numbers coming up next. What is cirkul . Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. Cirkul is the Effortless Energy that gets you in the zone. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. Hi. Im Wolfgang Puck when i started my online store Wolfgang Puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast thats why i chose Shipstation Shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels its my secret ingredient shipstation the number 1 choice of Online Sellers and Wolfgang Puck go to shipstation. Com tv and get 2 months free switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. Take full control of your brand with your own custom store. Scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. And sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. A lot more. Take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. We put our heart into celebrating moms. We are local farmers, bakers, florists and makers who grow and create with a passion. 1800 flowers. For mom, with love. Welcome to street signs. Im Frank Holland. These are your headlines. Pharma is in focus. Gsk hikes its pharma guidance while spinoff haleon posted a rise. Ceo andy jassy flags higher capex ahead. We expect reaccelerating growth for highdemand generative ai to expand in 2024. Wall street looks to start the month oven a down note. Thats their worst performance in seven months. Beauty group puig is gearing up for a 14 billion eurolisting. Thats spains largest in almost a decade. All right. Good morning. Welcome back to street signs. Taking a look action breaking news right now, were getting a final read from uk. Its a sur praise of almost a half a percent to the upside. Again, that number coming in at 49. 1. Still in contraction territory. But the final read, higher than the flash of 48. 7. This follows a read of 50. 3 back in march when we saw Business Optimism rise to an 11month high. Pullback month over month. Still in contraction territory, but higher than the flash read of 48. 7. Moving on to other corporate stories, elon musk has shut down teslas supercharger business and let go of the entire team. Thats a total of about 500 people. Its slashing costs in the face of increasing competition and a downturn in demand. In a memo announcing the layoffs, he wanted to make clear that tesla is, quote, absolutely positive about head count. Moving on to an earnings mover, amazon moves higher after tl Company Posted a First Quarter beat. Amazon Web Services Revenue grew better than expected at 17 with the company citing Artificial Intelligence demand and a reduction in cost cutting from revenues. Ad revenue grew with Ceo Andy Jassy saying advertising on its prime visit Video Service is off to a good start. The guidance for the First Quarter was softer than expected with revenue seen between 144 and 1 149 billion. Jassey said its hit a revenue run rate with ai demand deliver i significant momentum for aws. That will come at a cost for amazon, flagging higher capex rates. Ceo andy jassy flagged that. We expect the combination of aws as reaccelerating growth to meaningfully increase capital. Given the way the model works, its a positive sign of future growth. The more demand they have, the more we have to procure new data centers, power, and hardware. To discuss it much more, were joined by charlie. Great to have you here. Good morning. What did you make of this quarter . Surprised that the shares are up only 2 after a very strong quarter. How much of that do you believe is the softer than expected guidance . I mean, yeah, thats probably the only area you can really pull in the results that you would say wasnt very positive. Its just reported. Its firing on all cylinders, sales up 13 . That was at the top end of it. Guidance, aws sales up 17 . That was well above expectations. It was a clear exacceleration. Again, pretty encouraging. Operating profit more than traveling. International Retail Business becoming profitable during the quarter, making a margin of 2. 8 . So, again, encouraging progress. Having with that business having been at loss making for several courses prior to that. Aws margins also very positive at 37. 6 . Appetizing services growing, maintaining very strong growth. So i dont think theres any results you could really look at and grumble with. But as you say, the key to guidance may be a bit below expectations. Theyre dwighting from 7 to 11 . That implies a little bit of a slowdown from the 13 weve just seen. Theyre guiding to operating margins and, of course, as we saw with the other providers a stop of capex. Charlie, i want to interrupt for a second. The reason i asked you, do you think its softer than expected guidance. Normally they would just sink a stock. But this is a really strong quarter. Do you think they were strong about that . Theyre going to spend quite a bit more to grow their data centers. I mean, that is demanddriven. I think the call from amazon was very bullish on the Cloud Business. The demand that they see, they reference in the cal. Its 85 of global i. T. Spending still remains on premise. Theyre seeing an end to the customizations of the Cloud Business. Weve seen since the pandemic a lot of companies have stepped back from the i. T. Modernization with other priorities, but that now seems tocoming to an end. They talk about the huge demand for ai services. They need to be able to meet that demand, we saw it with microsoft as well. They need to spend in order to meet that demand. So, yes, it will be causing some concern for investors because that means higher depreciation costs. Investors are concerns that may weigh on margins, but the demand signals are very positive. I want to touch on amazon. The ad business grew 24 year over year. Andy jassy sounding very bullish. I know you touched on some of that very briefly. We saw meta with weaker than expected ad sales and then we saw alphabet and microsoft. Can ad sales be a higher growth modifier for the company . Can it take over the Cloud Business with the kind of ground were seeing here . I dont think wed say it would overtake the Cloud Business, but i think the signals are very positive from amazons appetizing business. It maintains very strong growth in the quarter. That was on the back of strong comparatives. It is a high business margin. Companies clearly see that spending brings rewards. Companies will be very selective about where they allocate their appetizing spend. But on amazon, theres a clear link with Product Sales and thats really important. That is an aspect thats driving their growth. Of course, theyve put out prime video as well, and that should be a good driver as well. You look at amazon and the socalled ai arms race. You have apple left to record and nvidia. Jassey has signaled he wants a platform, not just a chipmaker after this report, do you think it will ease the concerns of amazon and the demands its seeing when it comes to ai products . I think it would ease the concern. Clearly, some investors have been concerned is amazon losing share in the cloud space . From these results, you know, we have to remember amazon is the biggest player in the space, so its not necessarily going to see the same percentage and level of growth. But in terms of the revenue that its reported, i dont think anyone can complain. As i said, the call was very bullish. Amazon clearly sees a multiyear growth opportunity. All generations of ai loads will be deployed on the cloud. Virtually amazon stands to benefit from that. Microsoft and google as well. Well see how it develops. It will give investors immense confidence. Charlie huggins, manager of the Partnership Wealth club. Appreciate your time. Its a quiet day. Its may day. I hope everybody is enjoying the day off. Its an opportunity to look at the market that was dominated by an increasingly contentious debate. Arabile joins us here. My only regret is you wont get to say puig. Unfortunately not. Lets take a look at the european trade across the month, the month of april, of course. This time around we thought wed go statewide as we head toward the open. Significant declines across the board. 5 decline for the dow jones. In fact, that was the biggest decline then for the month for the dow jones, particularly since september 2022. It did break a fivemonth winning streak across all three majors with the s p as well as the nasdaq going down 4 . April is a surprisingly week. Since 2013 its only happened twice that april has been on the downside. If you go back to what is it 19 years, it will take you do 2012, 2013, as well as 2024. The third time in 19 years if you want to look at it that way as well. So it tells you how significant it is that this was a pushdown. If it is five months, of course, which is what youre seeing in terms of the street being broken, what happens . The fed pivoted. That i decided the rates were restrictive enough and they could see a cut in Interest Rates. Those Interest Rate cuts have been pushed on a little bit further. The market has taken a bit of a dampening effect off the back of that entire sentiment as well and thats whats playing into negativity overall that were seeing here. Tech was the one that pushed things higher across the First Quarter of the year. Utilities was the only one that managed to go higher. If you look at tech, it is toward then the bottom end of the overall indexes when it comes to the s p. Of the 11, only 10 or rather 10 were in negative territory across the month. Information technology down more than 5 . 5 weaker. On the back of the Interest Rate cuts being pushed later into the year, the question mark around whether they could even be a hike with inflation remaining sticky as it is has meant that the Real Estate Companies have also dipped nearly 9 on that one. The mag 7 either. Particularly in the month of april. You see tesla, which was down in the first months of the year in rebound. China being in agreement with baidu as it tries to shore up a little bit more Technological Advancements for his business there. Alphabet moving significantly higher, 8. 1 . You just spoke about cloud revenue. Amazon moving down 3 on the month despite the uptick in cloud revenue you saw out of its earnings. Big drawdown for meta. Again, a significant climb in the first three months of year, seemingly having done well, particular will i in the month of april. Were looking out for nvidia who has their earnings coming out a little bit later on this month, so two weeks or so to go for that one. And, of course, apple is going down twothirds of a percent for the month of april overall, frank. Hard to believe meta is in the red after that big gain after earnings, but very interesting. Arabile, thank you very much. Were going to hit some other big tech names. We start out with amd. The Company Expected roughly 4 billion in chip sale this year. Thats up on the year, but well shy of expectations with some hoping for 8 billion. You see shares down 4. 5 . Were seeing chipmakers nvidia sliding on the back of the amd children guidance. Coming up here on the show, markets cut rate expectations ahead of todays fomc decision. Well break down when we might see that elusive first cut. Stay with us. Raising you was no bed of roses. Are you getting me anything for mothers day . Go to 1800flowers. Com. Oh my gosh wow gorgeous i feel like royalty. Thank you. 1800flowers. Com. Happy mothers day. Happy mothers day my name is Ashley Cortez and im the founder of the stay Beautiful Foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each persons name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the 1 choice of Online Sellers go to shipstation. Com tv and get 2 months free what is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul is your gateway back home. So what is cirkul . Its your water, your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. Were going to show you a story weve been following all morning. Several College Campuses are seeing propalestinian protests. Clashes have erupted including the video were showing in the past hour at the university of california, los angeles, known as ucla. Dramatic scenes show police removing protesters in new york in this hall. The fed is seen to be holding rates, no plans to cut rates any time soon. Theyre going to pay close attention to powells language. Traders have dramatically dialed back the rate cut expectations with some of them now not anticipating anything more than a single cutin december. Bank of america in that camp as you can see. Joining us now to discuss this and much more, mike gallagher, director of research at continuum economics. Great to have you here. Some banks are only seeing one bank rate cut this year. Where do you stand . Where do you see the first rate coming . Well see a cut in september and then another cut in the fourth quarter. I thinkthe critical thing is kind of the bite from Interest Rates in 2022, 2023 is coming through. It will slow the u. S. Economy down. You will see that evidence progress. The fed are going to react to that because policy is tight at the time. They estimate kind of the neutral rates, about 2 3 4. Were a lot higher than that. The fed need to take their foot away from the degree of tightness and reduce the degree of restriction. That was the easy question, how many rate cuts. When you see them coming, ive got the harder one for you. What are you expecting from jay powell at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time . A lot of people believe he needs to walk a tightrope, but in your mind, is it hawkish . Is it dovish . Is it somewhere in between . Hes going to play both sides. Hes going to signal its going to be higher for your longer, but hes not going to rule out rate cuts this year. If he did rule them out, that would be a surprise to the market and the market would sort of undiscount the remaining hopes of lower rates. So i think its balancing act. I think well see some hawkish notes and dovish notes. Youre the tightrope camp. You have to walk a very thin line. Absolutely. Youve got to remember also from the feds perspective, theyve got two months of nonfarm pay payrolls. I have a more critical meeting in june because we get the dots from them as well. Ive been talking to a lot of trards. They say jay powell is a pretty tough job. So many different fed speakers are giving different projections. You mentioned no projections this meeting, however, in previous meetings, jay powell has gone out of his way to clarify whether those projections still stand or theyve been outmoded. Hes in a pretty tight spot. I think he will acknowledge theyre no longer applicable, that the degree of easing that was thought would occur, hell clarify that thats not sort of the case. But he wont want to send two strong sort of signal some of thats why i think youll see dovish notes. He doesnt update it at all. Hell kind of signal that its not as relevant. The underlying message will be that rates sustained longer, but we dont want to rule out rate cuts. You say we havent quite seen the impact of the higher for longer situation, but q1 gdp, wasnt that a read on higher for longer rates . What other points outside of it . The markets move on every other possible gauge. What outside of the Inflation Report do you think the feds going to be looking at Going Forward . You mentioned the jobs report being one. I think the fed will be looking at the survey data, the pmis isms which i announced are starting to soften a little bit into april. If thats reflected in april and may with the softening of jobs growth because employment growth is very wide, remember, then were likely to see the fed accepting that theres some kind of slowdown going on. The other thing is that although inflations disappointed in the last three months, a lot of thats to do with the bumping in january, you know. Core cpe was better controlled in march. I document think the fed are going to want to go overboard and panic. Thats why i think theyll have some undercurrents. Well leave the conversation there. Mike gallagher forecasting two cuts this year. Well have to wait and see. One more quick look at the u. S. Futures. Weve been talking about them all morning long. We see theyre under quite a bit of pressure. We see the nasdaq and dow moving down. Looks like the dow would open up 55 points p lower. Im Frank Holland. Worldwide exchange is coming up next. What is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and its ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation tv and get 2 months free its 5 00 a. M. At cnbc headquarters, 10 00 a. M. In london. Im Frank Holland and here are your five 5. Investors get set for todays fed decision, futures once again under some trouble. Tech trouble. A blockbuster is doing little to booster and is now 5 below its 52week high. Shares of starbuck