Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240711

The session. High intraday high russell 2000 continues its high but it, too, has faded during the session. The russell flat, the other indices negative coming up in todays show, well ask allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El Erian about todays highs plus, the president of shopify about the companys new partnership with alipay mike santoli, tracking the market action. Meg tirrell has more news on pfi zechlt rs vaccine data and phil lebeau, covering the boeing 747 max. Mike, start us off here. Weve been dealing with a couple of issues, the market being a little stretched on the upside after that strong rally month to date. Over bullish sentiment has had a hard time getting traction, but no damage done at this point on the year to date chart were slightly above that september high by half a percent nothing damaging really happening here i wanted to zoom into the last ten days of trading or basically really more like eight days of trading, back to last monday, week ago monday. Pfizer news, plus the election was called and you have this big burst of excitement. People thought uncertainties had passed that was up around 36, 40. You can see we existed below that for a while this monday you had this pop with the Moderna Vaccine news. Again, i dont think anyone has happened in the overall trend. Perhaps it tells you that bitters are a little more hesita hesitant, up at these levels and maybe a little entrenchment happening. Or maybe just go sideways for some animal spirits to resat little bit here is something about the rhythm of the markets so far this year. This goes back 20 years. The number of 1 daily moves up or down over the prior 12 months you can see its on the rise whats interesting, its been on the rise as the stock mark, in general, has been rising this year of course, that was the big drop back in the spring this peaks when the market has been going down and starts to bottom basically its another way that this cycle has been jumpy on the way up as well, because youre trying to handicap a wide range of outcomes with this pandemic and the shock to the downside was so sharp and the revival s was. If you continue this uptrend and start this to go down and have volatility ease. Usually its quieter on the way up, thats true. Yep. Mike, does todays action also tell us positive news on the vaccine is largely priced in the market in terms of headline impact, i do, sara the market will be looking at how fast it gets to market, how fast the economy can get back to Something Like normal. Yes, in terms of the development side, youre seeing diminishing returns both when pfizer announced, modernas news and pfizers enhanced results today did not necessarily give an extra boost to stocks. We only have one sector high now as we speak. Dow is down 122 points thanks, mike more encouraging news on the vaccine front as mike referred to pfizer says data shows it more effective than it originally thought. Hey, meg. Hey, wilf final results of efficacy of the phase three trial that it reported today of course, this is an update from last monday when it said its vaccine was more than 90 effective in preventing cases of covid19 with all the cases in, they say 95 efficacy and as effective for those who are older, age 65. They said it looked well tolerated. No serious safety concerns they passed the twomonth safety time needed and they plan to seek that fda authorization or at least file that application within days. What happens from there . The fda will schedule an advisory meeting of outside advisers to discuss vaccines ive heard from two sources theyre planning to ask those advisers to meet december 8 through 10 and they could discuss both pfizer and modernas vaccines. They plan to file within the next few weeks that, of course, is a key step ahead of authorization once the fda gives the green light, Cdcs Advisory Committee will meet to make prioritization and allocation recommendations and then this kicks in a huge government effort to start distributing these vaccines. We heard from operation warp speed today they want to start distributing these within 24 hours of the fda giving the green light. Weve seen with these Advisory Committee meetings scheduled december 8th through 10th and you have a whole network of government partners working together to get these vaccines out to states and cities from an industry side, mckesson as a distributor, working with operation warp speed pfizer is working with fedex and u. P. S. Walgreens and cvs involved here, getting vaccines to nursing homes. It will be a huge effort well start to see play out in December Sara i was reading that the minor side effect was fatigue. Could these results have been any better at all . I mean, they are pretty good, wilf whats great also is we saw ten cases of severe disease in the pfizer trial and nine of those were among people in the placebo group. It protects against cases of covid19 but severe disease. We dont know if it protects against infection completely and how long these results last. I will say about the side effect profile, it is grade three fatigue and headaches, which means it could affect your ability to go about your daily activities so, there is some thought from experts that we need to look closely at these vaccines and the impact theyll have the day after you get your shot. Can you go to work and things like that . Meg tirrell, thank you. I guess it could be better if it didnt have to keep at almost negative 100 degrees fahrenheit, which makes it tricky. Big news today, faa clearing boeing 737 max to fly again after the plane was grounded for more than a year and a half. Phil lebeau talked with the faa administrator today about that decision. By the rumor cell a fact. If you looked at the rumors that the faa was going to be ungrounding the 737 max, you would expect shares of boeing to move higher, which they did, up 20 the last five days tachlt, once the approval went through, a bit of a pop at the opening but since then the stock has pulled back, along with the rest of the market. The changes in the approval for the max to get back into service. Updated Flight Control software, keeping it from pitching forward in certain situations when it takes off, which contributed to the two crashes that happened in 2018 and 2019. Also new pilot procedures so the pilots are not confused about how to respond in certain situations still, some of the families of the 346 people who were killed still believe the max is unsafe. They cut corners in the original design and theyre cutting corners on the fixes its not a safe plane. They refuse to do fiks that were pointed out, and passengers should simply avoid it and try to find another plane. The families, the victims in these crashes have been foremost in my thoughts and foremost in the thoughts and prayers of everyone at the faa for the last 20 months, as we have gone through this effort. I can tell you that i am 100 confident in the actions that we have taken. Steve dickson says that the families, he will be talking with them this afternoon to go over some of the changes in the 737 max. What happens with the planes that are already part of airline fleets and have been grounded for the past 20 months, when will they go back into service lets take a look at a couple of airlines that do have the max. American airlines. Its first max flight scheduled from new york to miami december 29th and southwest, which is the Largest Airline or has the largest fleet of maxes of any of the airlines, 34 maxes that have been parked. Theyre going to take a little bit longer and get it back into service in the Second Quarter. In the first couple of months of the next year, guys, airlines around the world will start to feather the max back into service. Clearly the faas authorization is the beginning of other regulators around the world, theyre expected to follow suit and also approve the max to go back into the air. Phil lebeau, thanks for that. Boeing down 2 , after having at the start of the session, a high weighing in from stimulus, the economy and future travel from jamie dimon those comments after the break youre watching closing bell on cnbc. Turn on my tv and boom, its got all my favorite shows right there. I wish my Trading Platform worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. 5g is going to change everything about the way businesses run. And most important is the ability to transform the smallest of businesses right in our neighborhoods. We created the 5g Business Impact challenge to give them the tools for them to come back stronger. The things that folks are doing today to survive during the pandemic will help them become more resilient into the future and Technology Like 5g is whats really going to enable that. Mits time you make the rules. And Technology Like 5g so join the 2 Million People who have switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost. All on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included and save up to 400 dollars a year on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Jamie dimon joined Andrew Sorkin today overall he was not deeply concerned about the Economic Outlook but stressed the need for more stimulus, even though weve had good vaccine news recently. I agree that im not worried. Im just saying focus on the job at hand. Weve got to get the vaccine out. Weve got to get right now, weve got to get people safer. Youre seeing a sky rocketing of covid in just about every part of not just america but the world. Weve got to get through it. Its a mistake to take our eye off that ball. And we need some of that fiscal stimulus this is childish behavior on the part of our lawmakers. Lets just get through it. He was asked about bill gates prediction that Business Travel will fall by 50 per in the medium to long term. Nothing like personal relationships, seeing people and sharing ideas. 30 is probably a good number of less seats youre going to need in office buildings, because people will be rotating, working from home, fulltime, parttime. Okay, thats fine. Thats an adjustment its not devastating to the world. I think Business Travel will be less kron that its 50 what will happen, it will drop, and it will start to grow again, and then people make adjustments. Take someone like me i have to go and see my clients and leadership all around the world. Im going to travel just as much. I dont think thats specifically a boost for jetblue. Im not sure mr. Dimon travels commercial up over 20 during the month of november and, sara, even though yields have pulled back the last two, three, four sessions, banks have held pretty steady. The month of november has been very strong indeed. Also, still not a fan of bitcoin. Even though were seeing new highs lately. Yeah. Still not going there. Hes sort of it was quite funny moment with Andrew Andrew asking him if he had changed his mind, having been negative before. He indicates he never changed his mind, was never negative, just saying jp morgan doesnt use bitcoin. Does he believe bitcoin will be the future or something they invest heavily and he wouldnt go that far, which he says has always sort of been his position andrew also asked him about whether he ever thought about being treasury secretary he said ive never coveted the job. Im very happy doing what im doing. Based on all my reporting the last couple of years, i think thats fairly accurate i think he was probably offered the job by donald trump and turned it down, which tallies with the idea that he hasnt outright coveted it, which is his word he used today said hes always happy to work with whatever administration and echoed that phrase weve heard often hes a patriot first and ceo of jp morgan second. Calling members of Congress Acting like children or calling it childish behavior, i think people who are suffering and in these programs that are running out at end of the year, like student forbearance and mortgage forgiveness, that rings true when both sides want stimulus and cant agree on a price tag or a number. His point on that was split the difference if the two sides are apart on the headline number for stimulus, literally split the difference and lets get this done you can understand that sentiment. I think everyone can same time, easier said than done, of course, as there are more nuances to this i guess the tone, i think, of what he was saying is perhaps theres hope now that the election has passed that that pragmatism is possible he also had pretty good words for secretary mnuchin, saying he had done a good job on that part and handled a lot of moving parts. After the break, pfizers vaccine news giving some hope of light at the end of the tunnel when could you expect a vaccine shot well discuss the rollout challenges with dr. Margaret hamburg, next. In some ways, things are kind of the same. In other ways, well. Any questions . The good news is. Weve learned, we can do this. Turns out when were hitting our goals, nobody cares if were wearing pants. We just need the right tools. So our team, stays a team. So no matter what comes next we can work better do better this is going to work. Welcome back time for our daily coronavirus tracker. New york city mayor bill deblasion announcing this afternoon that Public Schools will be closed tomorrow. Positivity rates have surpassedd 3 in the sevenday average. North dakota is number one on the list, reporting an average of 18. 2 deaths per million each day. The Czech Republic is ranked number two, followed by south dakota sa sara pfize r b ionntech announcing today their covid19 vaccine is 95 effective the Companies Plan to submit an fda application for emergency use will come in days. Moderna also saying its vaccine was found to be 94 effective. Former fda commissioner, dr. Margaret hamburg dr. Hamburg, thank you for joining us. Thank you. Now that we have this good news on the data that the vaccines are effective, how big of a challenge is it to produce and distribute this to billions of people around the world well, it is good news, first of all the bad news is that its going to take time to get this vaccine out. The companies with support from the u. S. Government have been already manufacturing the vaccine, not knowing whether, in fact, it would make it over the finish line to authorization and eventually approval. So there is vaccine that will be ready to go out once there is an authorization for broader use, but it will be limited i think its estimated between the two companies theres maybe 70 million doses, and, of course, this vaccine requires two doses in order to be effective, to reach that 95 or so percent level of efficacy so it means, you know, that there will be a significant of number of vaccines, 35 million but given the rising numbers and the magnitude and urgency of this covid crisis not enough the first vaccine, obviously, will be targeted to priority groups but we have to make sure that we have a clear Distribution System that is based on sound, Public Health and that its equitable. Dr. Hamburg, clearly this data is very attractive, very positive and were all welcoming it that said if we werent in the midst of a pandemic, would there be further tests or longer analysis of the data you would want to see to be absolutely sure of its safety this has been a Remarkable Development process and much accelerated. You know, a year ago, we didnt even know that this Novel Coronavirus existed. And within a year, were about to see a vaccine not only go through stages of study in humans, but actually, most likely, be authorized first on an emergency use basis, of course, for broader use. But there have been rigger oous standards applied to the process. Corner have not been cut and with regard to the Companies Work with independent oversight there have been scientists and experts as far as the daily safety monitoring board that monitors the studies and assesses the data. And then before an authorization of either of these vaccines will occur, there will be a vaccine Advisory Board committee to the fda that takes place and, again, a group of distinguished, experienced scientific experts and vaccinologists, who will be working with the industry scientists in a Public Meeting to look at the data, to analyze it, to discuss it and, you know, i think that should also help reassure people if they make a strong recommendation for this authorization to go forward. But it has been an unbelievably accelerated process. The other thing thats important to mention quickly is that there will be ongoing oversight as well one of the essential things we always do with vaccines, because you learn so much more when you go from studies, even studies that have tens of thousands of people in them, like these studies have, when you go from that more limited controlled study environment to broader use, you learn more about emerging safety concerns and you also learn more about efficacy which subpopulations does it work best on how is it working in the real world . And importantly for covid vaccines, how durable is the protection over time i think its also important that the public can learn the data youre talking about. Its been hard to find data in a centralized way for people to know what to do and for businesses to know how to open its a conversation weve had on cnbc over the last few months. What would be your message to the authorities at the cdc, fda and the next administration when it comes to the rollout, so that people will trust this vaccine, which has been another issue trust is a huge issue we can have the worlds most safe and effective vaccine and if people dont trust it and have confidence in it, they wont use it and it wont be, in fact, of any use in actually curbing the epidemic and really quashing this global pandemic. Thats a huge issue. Transparency really matters. People need to understand the process, how things have been done they need to know that there have been, i think, in various stages of the development a cadre of outside scientists and experts involved, looking at the data the data needs to be made publicly available when i was at the fda, now more than five years ago, we put a major emphasis on a Transparency Initiative to start to open up the agency, because we found that when people couldnt see into what we were doing, they tended to suspect the worst. But its an agency that is so committed to strong science, integrity of the people that work there and i really feel confident that everyone there has been working 24 7 to help accelerate the process of Vaccine Development and review as much as possible, but that, you know, no corners will be cut in terms of assuring the soundness of the Scientific Data on which decisions will be made. Dr. Hamburg, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Coming up, well speak with the Ceo Financial adviser at lazzard and former media director under president obama, and the disconnect between the stock market and the economy yields ticking higher today. Theyve been up and down during this session 0. 88 currently before we talk about taxsmart investing, whats new . Audreys expecting. Twins wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. And sweetie can coloryou just be. Gentle with the pens. Okey. Okey. I know. Gentle. Gentle new projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed. Com home. Welcome back. Time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera. Hi, everybody. Heres whats happening at this hour. This, as Election Officials work to finish the states hand recount by tonights midnight deadline. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is calling on universities to test all students before they go home for the holidays it should be done at least 72 hours before students leave campus. At a nursing home, major outbreak of covid19 has killed 20 and affected more than 150. Most of the deaths happened over the last six weeks four Health Inspections since march show that facility met allstate and federal health guidelines. On a happier note in washington, d. C. , this little guy gosh, hes so cute needs a name the giant panda cub is nearly three months old and the national zoo is asking the public to vote for one of four names. The winning choice will be announced on monday. What are the four options here we go. Foo sai, prosperous boy, little miracle, happy and prosperous and a chinese nickname for a boy, zai zai. Thats probably the easiest. I had to practice this for like half an hour, wilf. Lets go with that one or pannedy or Something Like that. Pannedy is cute wait till next hour. I have a great one next hour. I look forward to it as always, sue. Thank you very much. See you then. Mohamed el erian of allianz joins us were counting down to earnings lbrands and nvidia both sharply higher first up is this exquisite bowl of french onion dip. Im going to start the bidding at 5. Thank you, sir. Looking for 6. 6 over there do i hear 7 . 7 in the front 7 going once. Going twice. Sold to the onion lover in the front row next up is lot number 17, a spinach and artichoke dip, beautifully set in a hollowedout loaf of sourdough bread. Dont get mad get e trade and get more than just trading investing. Banking. Guidance. This was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Welcome back theres the dow big board session lows, thereabouts, down 200 points we were up 147 at the high of the day. Now down twothirds of 1 . All four of the major averages though the russell has tick aid leg lower, now down about half of 1 . Lets bring in Mohamed El Erian. Mohamed, great to see you as always thanks so much for joining us. Clearly, markets have been particularly strong of late. What do you think the trigger is for this pullback . Is it a sign of more to come i dont think it will come as a surprise that the markets are taking a breather. The latest vaccine news was pretty well priced in. We continued to get indications that the economy is slowing, not just because of normal consumer behavior, but we are getting more and more news of covid restrictions in new york today and also theres been a subtle change, very subtle. I dont want to read too much into it, but its there in the language that the Federal Reserve officials are using about more stimulus. So, for me, its not a great surprise that were getting this breather the biggest surprise, honestly, is that the rotation trade ran out of steam so early. I would have thought that it would go further in terms of relative valuations. What do you mean, mohamed, about the fed changing the way its speaking about stimulus so if you look at what the fed chair said yesterday, if you look at what vice chair said, there was a very subtle change from the economy will need more, need more fiscal and monetary stimulus to, it may. It may need more the fed is in the same position that a lot of other people are, which is clearly the light is shining a lot brighter at the end of this long covid tunnel. Its a huge deal to have vaccines that are over 90 effective. However the big question is, how long is that trip and how painful is that trip as the light shines brighter, the temptation is to say, you know what . Im not going to press on the accelerator quite as hard as i was intending to beforehand. Thats it. Just keep an eye on the fed. It doesnt mean theyre going to do anything radical, but the market has priced in additional support. What if we did see some kind of fiscal support in the shortte shortterm, mohamed, would that be a positive surprise for the market yes i really hope we do. Were going to see even more pain the next few weeks, as some other programs run out. Weve got evidence already that the economy is slowing if you see retail sales, whats happening on housing, everything is indicating that recovery has slowed down. And the last thing you need is restrictions coming in, plus risk aversion on the part of the consumer i hope we get something and that will be good forget the markets for the economy. The economy actually needs some type of support right now. Were seeing higher yields, despite the selloff in stocks today. Bond yields, 10. 87 or a little north of that. Do you think bonds will continue to sell off here as investors do keep an eye on the longer term, and that light at the end of the tunnel coming with the vaccine yeah. So its the light at the end of the tunnel its the greater issuance. Its the fed may not be buying as much, may not extend the maturities of its buying program. All these things are coming together having said that, i think we are wage bond, sara. Some people think we break way of 1 . I dont think thats going to happen other people think were going to slow down really quickly and go the other way, go back to the 60 basis points. I dont think that will happen eithe either. Mohamed el erian, always good to get your thoughts thank you for joining us. Thank you. From allianz. Up next, new comments from target ceo on stockpiling and bitcoin making a run toward a record high. Those stories and more as we go inside the market zone, coming up next. 20 minutes left of trade were down about. 4 on the nasdaq near session lows for the dow, down 257 you can go your own way its time you make the rules. So join the 2 Million People who have switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost. All on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included and save up to 400 dollars a year on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. But we are hoping things will pick up by q3. Yeah. Uh. Boss doug . Sorry about that. Umm. What. Its. Um. Boss you alright . [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e trade. It has powerful, easytouse tools to help you find opportunities, 24 7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures Contract Prices around. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. We have 15 minutes left in the trading day. We are now in the closing bell markets on commercialfree coverage of all the action going into the close mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, as always and Ritholtz Wealth Management josh brown is with us as well all sectors have gone into the red in the last few moments or last hour of trade i should say. Russell 2000, small index had been hanging on to gains its negative. We are well into session lows here for all the major averages. Dow has a few positive stocks like salesforce, mike. Whats causing the lateday selloff here . I think you have, for a couple of days, an inability to really make further headway. Coming into the week, were getting a little overbought. Sentiment got a little over its skis its nothing thatty think we didnt know was happening, the p potential for nearterm challenges of the Growth Outlook combined with the willingness to look across the valley into the vaccineliberated future next year that push pull is what were dealing with right now its been very difficult to decide that even if the market is overbought and people love it too much to take the other side of a rally that tends to continue on into year end. Just for context, s p is back roughly where it closed on friday. Josh, are we getting assigned today particularly with this latest intraday move that puts the s p in for the week that all the news for the vaccine is priced in . Its really, really hard to know whats priced in at this point, wilf, to be honest with you. In case of the pfizer vaccine, we rallied on it twice first he they said 95 effective, we think and then two weeks later, no, actually its 95 effective and we know that and we rallied again i dont know that i can give you a great answer there thats not just a wild guess. Im going to tell you what i do know the first thing is, if we pull back a lens from daytoday activity, like the selloff today on new York City Schools, pull back the lens and understand the iwm to spy ratio, small caps priced in large caps, is now back to where it was in early february before this whole pandemic started that is remarkable were doing some work internally looking at intrayear drawdowns. It turns out this is the biggest intrayear drawdown for the u. S. Stock market ever that could result in the market closing higher on the year when you look at some of the reasons were in that position and some of the reasons were lined up that way, it makes it easier to get through a Late Afternoon selloff like this first things first, low tax rates, at least for 2021 right . So we know that. And the market may or may not be pricing that in. You also have the fed out to lunch. I understood what mohamed said i dont think change iing will may means theyre changing rate necessary time soon. Theres no justification for it. Think about how much money went into cash and shortterm bond funds this year. 1 trillion in u. S. Bond etfs earning nothing, another trend in 2 trillion bonds, also earning nothing. That is money looking for a better home at some point. And you have this interesting dynamic where stocks away from tech are looking better and better s p 500 names yesterday were above their 200day moving average. Thats the highest level weve seen since 2014. Transports look sick housing stocks look sick so many Groups Health care looks better go down the list even energy seems to have bottomed thats the setup i think people will chase them into year end and well have these days with negative covid stuff but i think were in the mode where were looking through it pretty quickly at this point. Shares of target, revenue and same store sales, gaining market share in all of its core categories and saying its Curbside Pickup service grew 500 Brian Cornell joins cnbc, and discusses whether theyre making stockpi stockpiling plans. Certainly its not like anything we saw during the february, march period of time as different cities, states begin to lock down, well have to make sure were keeping up with the need in the demand system were watching very carefully. Were certainly not seeing anything that resembled what we saw in february or march well watch it each and every day across the country. Target up 3. 3 as things stand. How is it valued at the moment you know, it used to be the cheap one, compared to walmart it is still more modestly valued, but creating really pretty solid cash full levels. Right now its sort of its in with the big boys right now it used to get a little bit of a discount nobody was quite sure if they had it figured out right now theyre in the elite in terms of having sorted out the omni channel thing i dont think you make the Valuation Case here. Its much more if the customer is going to remain equally engaged as we get into a different environment. And if they want market share that will stay with them as opposed to it being cheaper than walmart. Yeah, quite a beat there with 20. 7 comps. Another big box retailer that also reported results this morning. Lowes its sinking today after reporting profit that fell short of estimates the company did beat revenue in same store sales expectations, though results were expected for lumber up 130 compared to last year, lowes saw a doubledigit increase in lumber sales for the quarter. Mike really a swing factor, lumber . I think it definitely f fattened up the Comp Store Sales both for lowes and home depot yesterday. They were certainly strong by any measure. I think thats one of the factors the street is looking at and saying we cant really project that in the same way heading into next year in general, just exactly how much home buying and Home Improvement business has been pulled ahead its been pretty pronounced verdict when it came to lowes and home depot its kind of a wait and see and maybe there are other opportunities in terms of whats going to come back stronger next year. Josh, you want exposure to the Housing Market yeah. So i think the itb names look better than like the Home Improvement retailers, but thats like this week. In general, both should work i would point out, we have october new home starts. Thats like construction Single Family home construction. We are now back to a level that we havent seen on a monthly basis since april of 2007. So its a 13year round trip to get back to where we are the good news is, we aint seen nothing yet. Youve got this unbelievable demographic tailwind coupled with historic, neverbeforeseen ability to both refinance existing mortgages and take out a First Mortgage for a home, plus tons of innovation around rocket, et cetera. Its this unbelievable brew of ingredients and i think you want to be long in these names. I think you want to be in lowes if you watched it the whole way up and were upset about it, now youre getting an opportunity. You have a rise. Let it sputter for a day or two. I dont think it takes out that rising 2 hyundai i would use that as my stop. The market will tell you if you made a mistake and caught a falling knife but i dont think so. I want to mention we are at session lows and heading south as we speak, down 321 points now on the dow this comes in a period where we recently hit record highs for the dow and s p 500. Were up against 30,000. Couldnt gquite get there. Josh, what do you tell people to do on days like today . The narrative has been so optimistic around a vaccine. Materials and industrials, do you stay there or do Something Different now that a lot of it has been priced in i have not been of the mind that you want to make a specific bet on a specific outcome, like all in reopening or all in work from anywhere. I have both in my portfolio. So im in zoon zoom. Im in crowdstrike, et cetera. But then im also in like starbucks. I would like a combination of a reopening and Digital Future that was going to happen inevitably and companies that do well in either environment thats what im thinking about i would point out, sara this is going to sound goofy but Professor Bob shiler would probably agree with me given how concentrated Asset Management business is in new york city and nearby cities like boston, philadelphia, where a lot of old stock market wealth is, when we got the coronavirus headlines that started to affect manhattan, we were watching the Washington State stuff and being like, all right, whatever. That looks weird but i do think because its new York City Schools, you see this outsized weight on peoples shoulders and this turn in sentiment. But the good news is, were new yorkers. Were not going to be panicking on day three about what we were worried about on day one so, if thats whats giving you this Late Afternoon dip in the market, its probably a gift. Three major averages now in the red for a week, certainly in the red today. Bitcoin surpassing 18 billion, although it has fallen late in the trading day. The cryptocurrency has been on a tear by nearly 30 galaxy Mike Novogratz was on cnbc earlier today mike, you were on with him this morning. Very clearly hes saying this is different from a couple of years back and feels its more fundamentally more driven, more breadth behind it . He feels its more institutionally sponsored. Unless his price of bitcoin in the 50,000, 60,000 price range has to do with bitcoin in terms of total value of each and getting to some threshold. To me thats not fundamentals. To me thats a mass adoption call its a form of digital money, all kinds of Digital Payments and money. I cant decide if were supposed to be decided that bitcoin is flat while stocks went up 40 or kind of worried about it, or maybe this is the start and the real breakout. I dont know how to view it except its clearly getting mass adoption jack dorsey tweeting about square and about the access to bitcoin on there clearly, people have decided its a form of money and theyre going to trade it accordingly. How do you view the resurgence and the price of bitcoin . Is it correlated so much with stocks and the mood on wall street, you have to be in a risktaking mood to own bitcoin . A little bit. The dollar is down 8 . U. S. Dollar index is down 8 from the march highs that has a huge psychological impact on people who are holding a lot of cash and looking for alternatives bitcoin is actually doing much better gold and silver have been consolidating. Bitcoin seems to be the place where people are expressing that distaste for holding too many dollars. I would point out that the big game changer is mass adoption but not mass adoption as a bold substitute but a useful thing in the world people are doing something with other than buying ak47s on the internet to that end, i agree with michael that the square thing is impactful and the pay pal news is even bigger news. Pay pal has hundreds of millions of users if theyre going to let people seamlessly transact between dollars and bitcoin as they buy things in the actual economy and not the twitter economy but like in the real world, that could lead to much, much bigger demand i used to say that you could be bullish on usage of bitcoin but not on the price im coming around to the way of thinking that the only way you could be bullish on adoption is to also be bullish on price because if you expect people to really transact in bitcoin, then the price isnt big enough for the universe to be big enough. You need more you need a larger market cap, if you will, for this to happen i do think its going higher and would not be fading this, right at this juncture. Wow we are two minutes to go off the session loes, down 287 on the dow 1 move lower on the s p mike, what are you seeing in the internals . Deteriorated over the last couple of hours, as you might expect, sara they were quite strong in the morning even with the indexes flat right now thats turned around you have more volume on declining stocks, 2. 8 billion shares versus about 2 billion in advancing. Its been a broad rally to date, a give back and slippage on there. Spa relative to the regular s p, still outperformance by the average stock but not as much as you have midday as well. Volatility index earlier today made a post covid crash low. Little bit lower than the low of late august. Its bounced a little bit from there. Maybe the market getting a little jumpy is saying the vix has fallen enough today. Just one minute left. Sara said were off the lows, but not far off the lows the dow was up 150 were currently down 307, just over 1 . S p down over 1 , nasdaq do down. 7 the russell was higher for most of the session holds on to 1. 6 of gains for the week as a whole. Energy, health care, real estate down more than 1. 5 . Industrials are the best performer. Down itself. Gold slightly lower. The dollar is flat at the bell 1. 1 on the s p and dow down. 8 on the nasdaq. Welcome back to closing bell. A down day and we lost early gains. It closed lower 1. 16 . Down 334 points. New York City Schools closing down again you saw Energy Hardest hit nasdaq. 8 down. Russell 2000, which everybody has been looking at lately also closed lower, almost a percent after hitting a new alltime intraday high it is the first down day for the small caps in the last four. Still up 6 . From the march 18th low, small caps are up a whopping 83 were going to dive into two stocks that went on a run in 2020 awaiting earnings from nvidia, shares up 130 well bring you results as soon as they are released and see what that does to the stock. It actually closed higher on the day, barely. Shopifys president will join us to talk about a new partnership with Chinas Alipay and what that could mean in terms of exposure josh brown is still with us from Ritholtz Wealth Management also bny management chief strategist, alicia, good to see you again. First, mike, ill turn to you on what caused the selling today in the face of some very good vaccine data this morning from pfizer, more to build on what we got, what was it, last week . Just on monday and a week ago monday i think what it was, first of all, when the market was unable to really gain broad strength on that incremental, encouraging data, it probably reinforced to people we more or less priced that in. Also in general, keep talking about how we havent been able to go up to that week ago monday high in the s p. You had this massive, really aggressive inflow last week, 40 something billion dollars. Yes, people had been sitting out, didnt rush in. Then other signs of technical extremes and a little bit of ov overoptimistic sentiment shortterm risk reward shifts against you as a buyer and the market is closed over the september 2nd peak maybe we have to test everybody, who decided they would wait for the uncertainties of the election to pass, buy in and make them feel not so smart for having done so on monday after election day, which is when we started to take flight were still 2 above that level at the s p. Alicia, i saw in your notes that your positive medium term does that mean youre not positive either short or long term so, were positive medium and long term. Lets talk about the short term. This is the perfect day were describing the covid air pocket. We have an issue where you cant get there from here without going through a lot of bad news and some slow down in the real economy. And we came into today, yes, better vaccine news but also the vix went from 40 to 22 we had remarkable action in the market over the last two to three weeks, and a lot of good news has been priced in. Cyclicals have rallied so youre really primed for the good news, cyclicals to be priced in here ultimately, days like this will be a gift and pullbacks are buyable. There will be more bad days probably, simply because covid shows no sign of stopping the economic damage yet. On the other hand, we will have a boom the second half of 2021, and the market will start pricing that in. So the question, i guess, is what happens in the short term, alicia, in this air pocket you describe is there a potential to have a doubledip recession if we start to get more restrictions like we heard from new york city today and across the country even if we dont have a full shutdown, and do you still want to be buying cyclicals if thats the case you will get more restrictions Going Forward theyre not going to be called lockdowns. Mobility is already slowing down youll start to see that in economic activity. We dont think theres a double dip recession here its just a slowing pace of growth it will be reflected in the sectors. Probably the cyclicals come in a little bit but they will be buyable. Theyre buyable because were going to see growth on the other side, real growth. Cyclicals moving earlier in the year the bounce off the bottom was less about cyclical growth and more about payments of how to keep prices afloat having a self sustaining economy, which we think will happen next year. Josh, your view earlier was get through a couple more days and market also look through the shutdowns of schools in new york or whatever the negative covid headline is. Do you take strength from the fact that european stock market is on a tear during the month of november, despite facing worse spikes in cases and more lockdowns that the u. S. Is facing yeah. Because i think the overriding conditions are an economic recovery and we can argue whether or not from one week to the next its faster or slower but that seems to be undeniable that its gaining ground people are feeling more comfortable engaging in the economy, even if theyre forced to wear masks or forced to go home early i was at a restaurant out in melville this weekend, 110 beautiful, gorgeous restaurant theyre doing everything right every table has take a picture with your phone for the menu but we had to shut down at 10 00. We probably would have sat there until midnight but it is what it is you have to go out at 7 00 instead of 8 30 or 9 00. This is just the real iity. Were still in the economy were still spending i just doesnt think that the holidays will be derailed. The s p 10, the s p 50, the s p 100, these companies are getting it done either way rates are zero tax rates are low. To your point, look around the world. This is a global phenomenon. China, all time record high, emerging markets, record high. Japan at a 20year alltime high look at the ft schse etf go down the list you could fight that if you want i dont know how youre in business if thats what you do, is fight record highs around the world for a living most people arent and i think well get through this and focus on a vaccine in 21 if not two. I like the discussion of the crazy nights in melville. Shout out. If we are looking at slower growth, mike, which is starting to happen a little bit we dont know how severe its going to be. A fiscal drag. We dont know how much stimulus is actually going to come. Nm we get the vaccine, why is the market looking through that . Is there a disconnect . Look, if you want to see where Corporate Credit yields are, you have a very liquid market right now corporate earnings are on the way up for next year i do think that theres still a willingness, for now, to look ahead into when you get to the other side of the snapback it doesnt mean that, you know, the next 5 cant be down as opposed to up. I do think it explains why were in this position very resilient Credit Conditions high liquidity some early cycle dynamics where you have this housing rebuild and housing being very strong. Its hard for the economy to get into too much trouble in a hurry and by extension for the market to do so point to the post 2009 scenario, where you did have fiscal gridlock you didnt have enough stimulus. You had a slow and choppy recovery yet Financial Assets did fine. I dont know that were going to have a rerun of that its not that incompatible with that kind of environment. Lets get more on todays market moves, particularly that lateday selloff. Bob pisani has that for us bob . The market has been having a tough time trying to figure out what to focus on should it focus on the shortterm covid winter were all facing were talking about four, five, maybe six months of that or should it focus on the spring reopening story . We can see earnings, as you heard from mike. Definitely by the Second Quarter, theyre going through the roof because people want to believe in that Second Quarter reopening story. The fact is that market has largely focused on the spring reopening. Im kind of surprised its held up so well take a look at these names im showing you an intraday chart. Look at this 84 on a down day, had a huge run to the upside metals and materials stocks had enormous runs. Free port on a down day it closed at 20, as you can see. This is market optimism overall. Regional bank vbs huge and on a day down it was 121 today. Its up 20 in two weeks on some hopes that some Time Next Year were going to see a move up in net interest income. Even the big fang names. Microsoft has been essentially sideways for months now, essenti essentially sold out but today on a down day, 211 sitting there. Youre seeing big volume moves into value small cap value. Ishares value, titanic volume in the last week or so. Real money is sloshing around, even on a down day, the money today earlier on was huge in these sector funds midcap value, smallcap value, enormous amounts of money still going in real changes in peoples attitudes and i think that reflects the bigger belief in the spring reopening theory. Bob pisani, thank you very much for that. Alicia levine, as you outlined earlier, youre skeptical about the short term but bullish about the medium and longterm should people be selling relative to the shortterm pullback theyre buyable here and you should see it as an opportunity. That doesnt mean you wont have messy days ahead of you but today is a perfect example lousy headlines. The sectors that are really outpechled in the last month or so we Like Health Care here we like small caps we like tech you have to be involved in the digit economy. Thats where our economy is going, regardless of sector. Barbell approach the cyclical sector is the way to play the Real Recovery and the self sustaining economy as the yields move higher and the yield curve steepens. Josh brown and alicia levine, thank you both for joining us today. Lazards peter orsz oagn the disconnect between the stock market and the economy and the stocks that look right for m a in the year ahead. I made a business out of my passion. I mean, who doesnt love obsessing over Network Security . All our techs are pros. They know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. I just dont have the bandwidth for more business. Seriously, i dont have the bandwidth. Glitchy video calls with regional offices . Yeah, thats my thing. With at t business, you do the things you love. Our people and network will help do the things you dont. Lets take care of business. At t. Were back stocks sold off. Lets bring in peter orszag, former director of the office of management and budget under president obama. Peter, very good afternoon to you. Thank you for joining us. Good to be with you. I wanted to start on the prospect for stimulus in the short term theres been more talk of it again, rumors or just positive tones, but should we expect to get over the line in your view by the end of this calendar year i think its probably unlikely it should happen basically, whats been happening in the economy is that when the pandemic hit, we put so much money into peoples pockets through the c. A. R. E. S. Act that Savings Rates went up and Credit Card Debt went down. Were now burning through that cushion remarkably quickly it is a selfinflicted wound to not be filling the gap to bridge to what we can now expect to be a brighter 2021 because of the advances in science. This is completely self imposed and unnecessary. Can that be rectified early in the new year by the Biden Administration, or will prmt damage be done its not like were months away from that moment now. Yeah. Its still awkward i think to go two or three months with nothing and then, lets just be clear. Even in january, probably wind up with something thats not adequate or too small is not a great combination. So if we could get something now, great if we could get something now that was in place as long as the Unemployment Rate remained elevated, even better. Waiting until january is unfortunate. I think its probably the most like ly scenario and again wer just making a difficult situation worse for no reason. What do you forecast, peter, is happening to the economy right now with these rise in case numbers, hospitalizations and restrictions we talk about new york city, schools closing tomorrow minnesotas governor is going to close restaurants, bars and gyms starting friday for a month. This is likely to have an impact. It will have an impact. I think were better able to handle it than we were during the first wave just because people are more used to what needs to happen. We know that masks really matter nonetheless, there is economic damage that comes. I would say especially for small and mediumsized businesses and for the earlier discussion, they may not add up to a ton, large share of the stock market, they matter for a lot of families and they matter for the overall econom economy. So were talking about short term and medium term once we get over the vaccine hump. What does it mean for m a at lazard are peoples confidence and state of mind changing once were starting to get that vaccine data we saw pick up in m a starting only a few months after the pandemic hit its driven by return to scale, the benefits of being larger combined with very attractive financing conditions one of the effects of not getting adequate fiscal stimulus is that the fed will likely being put in a box for a substantial period of time the attractive financing conditions are likely to continue, technological changes continuing and discussions remain very active. Over the next four years, peter, what taxes will go up under president elect biden and what taxes should go up in your view the latter question is a lot easier to answer i think what taxes will go up is very challenging to answer before we know the results of georgia and even with two Democratic Senators from georgia, which i dont think is necessarily the most likely outcome. I dont think youre going to see big changes in tax policy. Its going to be too hard to get agreement through the senate for any substantial changes. What i think should happen, i long have believed that the overall level of revenue in the United States is just too low and theres lots of ways of addressing that, both through pricing carbon and through more progressive taxation, but its an academic discussion at this point. I assume a lot of your old friends from the obama administration, peter, are going to be in the new Biden Administration would you go back . No, im not its an interesting experience for me to see. Im staying in new york. Its an interesting experience to be on the outside, looking in i think that president elect biden is going to assemble a fantastic team. Is it going to quite a centrist team, do you think, peter . There was talk over times in the last 12 months of names like Elizabeth Warren as treasury secretary, which seems highly unlikely now, but do you think there will be progressives of that ilk in powerful economic positions . Im sure that the biden team will put together a team that looks, you know, across different parts of the Democratic Party and maybe even to parts of the republican party. I would note that the lack of a blue wave in the senate constrains many of the choices in terms of Senate Confirmation. I dont think that the candidates who are going to make it through the Senate Confirmation process are on the far Progressive Side of the Democratic Party so the lack of a blue wave in the senate probably produces a more centrist view, but i think thats where most of the biden appointees would have been in any case. Thank you got a big sigh of relief from wall street on that one. Peter, thank you peter orszag, always good to talk with you. One of the stayathome stories of 2020. Shopify. The companys president on the outlook for the shopping season as coronavirus cases continue to surge. After a lateday selloff, take a look at the days late performers in the market lowes off 8 , norwegian cruises, phillips, 66. A few hardhit ones there. Well be back with earnings from lbrands, which we should get any minute you can go your own way its time you make the rules. So join the 2 Million People who have switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost. All on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included and save up to 400 dollars a year on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Nvidia earnings are out and josh lipton have the earnings for us josh 2. 91 the street was at 2. 57. Revenue up 57 to a better than expected 4. 73 billion. Street was at 4. 4 billion. As for guidance, theyre looking for q4 revenue of 4. 8 billion. Street was at 4. 4 billion. Two big segments, gaming at 2. 3 billion and data center at 1. 9 billion. Statement from jetson huang, record revenues in Gaming Center and overall. The stock was up 200 from its march lows Conference Call kicks off 5 00 p. M. Eastern and well be on it. Back to you all. High bar they set clearly, the market is taking it okay the stock is up a little bit josh, thank you. Well talk more nvidia with an analyst in a moment. Lets go back to mike santoli. Consumer trends among a younger generation, mike not your generation. A generation even younger than yours, sara generation z, which i really want to highlight. It takes a look at people who think you are out of touch right here you see 50 of these folks under 19 years old right now have a drivers license. Back when i was getting a license it was closer to 70 clearly thats something for car makers to think about, whether longterm demand for car ownership will be affected by these things right now who knows if theres a pandemic effect in this last little bit and then clothing, Sustainable Clothing as a theme. Granted this is Google Search data you wouldnt be surprised it went up this much. Through my daughters, secondhand clothing, thrifting, Online Marketplaces for preowned clothes is a big deal. A lot of Clothing Companies like h m are thinking how to play up this aspect of their goods that much more. Mike, do you think wall street has zeroed in on these kind of genz trends and surveys we get and picked stocks accordingly, based on which stocks were the biggest winners from that generation i think so. Its starting to emerge. Millennial has been synonymous with the young kids and now thats having to change because millennials are 22 to 24 at this point. Theres no doubt that that gets a lot of attention by investors. Mike, thanks so much. Those nvidia numbers alt l dissect them with an anyswho recently raised their price target on the stock. Back in a couple of minutes. Taxsmart investing strategies, and with brokerage accounts online trades are commission free. Personalized advice. Unmatched value. At fidelity, you can have both. To high quality Computer Science and stem education. I joined amazon because i wanted to change education and i am impatient. Amazon gives me the resources to change the world at a pace that i want to change it. We provide students stem scholarships and teachers with support. Im a fighter and im fighting for all students. Stocks fell today and sharply lower into the close theres the dow, down 344 points actually turned the market, dow, s p and nasdaq lower for the week as a whole. As far as the biggest lose efrs on the dow, boeing, chevron. Boeing despite getting that green light from the faa to fly their 737 max again. Utilities the hardest hit. Check on shares of nvidia right now. That stock reporting numbers a moment ago chris roland, raised his price target by 9 they rose a bit. Now theyre a little bit lower, chris. Obviously the bar was set pretty high they did continue to see doubledigit Revenue Growth on gaming and so many parts of the business what stands out . Yeah. We were bullish into this report however, we did many channel checks and we found that their new gaming products were sold out almost across the board so we were worried about this 3q number in particular, that there were going to be supply problems there clearly are not, or if they are, they were able to hurdle those, and this report was even better than we had expected so were a little surprised the stock is down here, but the market has this incredible discounting mechanisms maybe expectations just got ahead of themselves. Its true we should highlight some of the numbers. You dont see a lot of companies doing this, even in the semi space right now. Revenue up 57 last from on gaming, up 37 Data Center Revenue up 162 on the year. Was that good enough a lot of people scrutinized the data center business, chris. Yeah. Data center, in the past, they have hurdled by a larger margin. However, this number is still good, particularly in light of intel, which highlighted struggles conversely there is a solid number. Some bulls might have been planning for more, but we think this is a solid number. Of course, chris, you are a bull yourself. You upped your price target just recently how do you feel about how strong this stock has been already this year and in recent years its been a juggernaut. Its been a juggernaut over the past few years and its been a juggernaut in 2020 as well as disruptive change has accelerated during covid, nvidia is a beneficiary you can see that particularly around their ai business, but also in their gaming business, as people seek new recreation indoors, in this case. So it really has been a banner year for nvidia. What do you want to hear from jenson huang on the call and my next question has to do with arm, whether that deal should face any hurdles. Sure. Firstly from jenson, i would like to see a continuation of two trends number one, gaming i actually do believe there were some supply shortages in the quarter. So i would like him to address that we could actually see an acceleration of growth if that is the case. And then secondly, when it comes to arm, i dont think there will be a lot of updates here to come right now. This is really going to be a touch and go subject with regulators and it is not clear that theyre going to get the green light its going to take a very, very long time to figure out the answer to that question. But arm can be a phenomenal add on to an already great business. Do you think president elect biden, the fact that its not the trump administration, changes anything geopolitically in that relationship that might open or close the way toward Regulatory Approval . Regulatory approval this is really a chinese issue you know, mofcom may decide to shut this down and block this deal of course, bidens overall response to china and, you know, the way they are handling technology and ip, that is going to be key to all of this i would say we dont have enough information just yet. Yeah. But there are thousands of Semi Conductor analysts around the world who are waiting to see how biden approaches this, how its different. Mofcom, Chinese Ministry of commerce chris, thank you with your take on nvidia. Shares are relatively flat ahead that have call shopifys president , Harley Finkelstein on how that deal will affect the outcome. Surging after a big beat on the top and bottom lines along with strong fwiedance. Athome Audio Company announcing a new 50 million buyback. Up 20 needles. Essential for sewing, but maybe not for people with certain inflammatory conditions. Because there are options. Like an unjection™. Xeljanz. The first and only pill of its kind that treats moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, or moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis when other medicines have not helped enough. Xeljanz can lower your ability to fight infections. Before and during treatment, your doctor should check for infections, like tb and do blood tests. Tell your doctor if youve had hepatitis b or c, have flulike symptoms, or are prone to infections. 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Big share for the company in bath and body works. That was the growth story here this time. Lbrands. Back to you, sara. Thank you time for the cnbc news update with sue herera. Hi, sara. Hi, everybody. The storms damage is becoming more clear as communications are resto restored. Mets second baseman Robinson Cano has been suspended for 162 games without pay following his second positive test for performanceenhancing drugs. He will forfeit 24 million because of that suspension. Here is a good reason to Pay Attention to the road. Whoa, look at that Police Officers captured this video of a distracted driver going airborne after veering off the road luckily, the driver sustained only minor injuries. And check out this little guy. Little ball of cuteness. He is a sawa owl found in the Rockefeller Christmas tree he was in the tree when it was cut down and strapped to a truck. He made the trip to new york city where a worker found him in the tree he has been taken to a Wildlife Center they think he hadnt had any food or water for three days and, appropriately, he has been named rockefeller. Its a holiday miracle, i think. So cute. I think hallmark should make an ornament of him and then all the proceeds get donated to the wildlife federation. Just a thought. I like it a lot. Wilfred i assumed you had a comment on the animal name since you were keen to do that. Its not a vote this time but i like it. Its a good choice its an apt choice rockefeller is not very cute, though, i would suggest. Rocky. Rockys good. There you go. Anyway, its an amazing story. Back to you guys. Sue herera, thank you. Up next, shopifys latest expansion, ecommerce making a big push into china. What it will mean for sellers across the globe when the president of shopify joins us after the break. 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Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Shopify expanding its ecommerce footprint the Company Announcing a new partnership with asian digital platform alipay this week. Shopify merchants will directly accept payments with more than 1 billion active users merchants were only able to offer the Payment Method through thirdparty payment providers. The stock is up nearly 200 , down 13 , though, in the last month. Joining us for more is shopify president Harley Finkelstein good to have you. Always a pleasure to be here, sara thanks for having me. Talk about the demand for this Alipay Partnership from your clients and from these American Consumer or american or Canadian Consumer companies. Frankly, shopify is a global company. And the role we play for more than a million businesses is that of a retail operating system shopify is where they run their business from. As were in preparations as we get into black friday, cyber monday, that happens next week, were recognizing the importance of major shopping holidays not just in north america but around the world. This partnership with alipay, the merchants at shopify can reach consumers well beyond just north america. As you mention in your opening remarks there are about a billion active users using alipay, 100 million more users our merchants we want to make sure have access to all those users and transact in the way they prefer. Some prefer alipay over credit cards. Some countries like germany we enable debit Card Transactions waus thats what consumers there prefer. Alipay has been in the news a lot and weve been talking about a lot lately because of the stunning collapse of what was to be the biggest ipo in china after reportedly chinese regulators and leadership, according to the wall street journal xi jinping was irked by jack ma in his speech over regulation, criticizing them do you worry about the risks of getting closer ties to or closer in bed with chinese Companies Like that, when the chinese are exerting so much control over this company our responsibility is to consumers and giving them access to consumers all over the world and transact in the Payment Methods they prefer. In terms our relationship with any particular payment gateway, we do that in order to ensure that merchandise can transact in the way that they want were so caught up with black friday or cyber monday we could talk about the numbers were already seeing around the early start to black friday but certainly the Chinese Consumer base is an important one for global brands, powered by shopify. Harley before we get specifically to the Holiday Season i wanted to ask you what your view is on the psych sbl how strong the consumer is. Wilfred, the pandemic accelerated change that we anticipated for a long period of ti time center of gravity for commerce or retail have shifted definitively from instore being the primary source to online being the primary source what were seeing now is not an anomaly. The growth of ecommerce weve seen since the pandemic started will continue long after we have a vaccine. And the resilient retailers who embrace these really true omni channel models and deplore all the resource at their disposal, theyre the ones that will succeed. We power Companies Like bombas and chipotle but also these up and coming startups like beyond yoga, and so many of those brands get started on shopify. Future retail is retail everywhere and businesses and entrepreneurs behind them will lead the retail industry. Are they and are you optimistic that we will have a proper Holiday Season . There were fears earlier in the year that without the sort of normal cycle thats been disrupted by the virus that those big oneoff days and events wont play out like they typically do thats a great point. Black friday, cyber monday weekend we traditionally know of, its not a weekend anymore its a season. It also will be a blueprint for what well see in the future we absolutely expect to see an increase in online shopping. Emarketer came out with a report that said both cyber monday and black friday will surpass 10 million, a 40 increase from the previous year. New evidence on shopify, weve now seen the black friday weekend is sta rting way earlier, versus comparable previous periods last year and the year before that cart sizes are increases average cart size is increasing by 18 , over 81, comparing the second week in november this year to last year as well. So, that is unequivocally happening. Also Consumer Buying Trends are shifting 97 of u. S. Shoppers tell us they pln to shop online only for the Holiday Season you couple that with the fact that 57 of shoppers want to buy local, from brands that are independent youre seeing a paradigm shift in retail and we feel very lucky a lot of those are power bid shopify. Especially with covid cases surging again, i think people will be back online. Harvey, how big have you gotten . We think about amazon as 35 to 40 total of Online Retail sales, where is shopify . How much do you have now in terms of the exact amount of ecommerce with shopify, percentage matters less to us. Think about shopify as a retailer if you were to pretend we were a retailer for one second, we would be the second largest Online Retailer after amazon the reason thats so important, sara, we can negotiate as if were the second largest retailers and we can give those economies to scale every 52 seconds a new business gets their order shipping rates, fulfillment rates that they can get on day one on shopify, that further anchors shopify from being the number one company. Thank you, as always. Thank you, wilfred. Now apple is making some concessions. Well break down all the details. This is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Its time you make the rules. So join the 2 Million People who have switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost. All on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included and save up to 400 dollars a year on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Up next, after a big selloff into the close, we have your wall street look ahead. What every investor needs to be watching and apples app making a concession in policy not everyone sees it that way. We will be right back. I made a business out of my passion. I mean, who doesnt love obsessing over Network Security . All our techs are pros. They know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. I just dont have the bandwidth for more business. Seriously, i dont have the bandwidth. Glitchy video calls with regional offices . Yeah, thats my thing. With at t business, you do the things you love. Our people and network will help do the things you dont. Lets take care of business. At t. Before we talk about taxsaudreys expecting. New . Twins wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. Apple cutting commissions by half for small appmakers josh has the details for us. A big change for the app store. This is how this is going to work on january 1 apple will be lowering its App Store Commission for developers, specifically those earning less than 1 million in store revenue per year from 30 to 15 . This will impact a lot of developers about 98 of developers that pay Apple Commission Small Developers accounted for less than 5 of apple revenue last year. In other words it shouldnt have much impact on apples bottom line not everybody is agreeable some Smaller Developers applaud the move saying this could make a huge difference to their industry and have a Ripple Effect across the industry what about this being a slippery slope for apple you cave once and you will have to do so again and again the reason apple says they did this now its a pandemic, turbulence, a lot of these Small Developers are having a tough time. Whether this leads to a Ripple Effect, i dont see that this was not a targeted move Big Developers were enthusiastic they are concentrating on this move with this program on Smaller Developers there are millions of them around the world apple is doing everything they can to make sure they stay engaged with apple apps. As for the why now, josh, isnt this a Company Currently being investigated by the Justice Department and Europe Commission on antitrust ground for this very issue . We will see what happens with that i think regulators will have a tough time going after apple even if you make a case as a monopoly, american judges have ruled for a long time that a monopoly is a problem only if it does quantifiable harm for consumers. Of course there is a possibility that maybe Congress Proposes and passes some kind of new antitrust legislation. But probably investors are wondering how likely this is may not be likely, but this looks good from this perspective. Thank you, josh lipson lipson as we wrap up the day with some final thoughts, selloff. We closed at session lows with all sectors lower. We did see a little upper formance in value sectors doing better like financials and industrials. We have macys earnings tomorrow, what else are you watching it didnt unwind the theme of the market trying to position itself for a better cyclical upturn general market having to adjust to too much overbought it seems like macys is not going to be the same as home depot and lowes, but maybe it will like nordstrom there were a lot of intraday reversals. Gold slipped by the end of the session and yields endwere low d ended higher that does it for us. Fast money starts now. Im melissa lee and this is fast money. Beware, bitcoin touching its highest level in three years but it is being said a crypto crash could be coming. Earnings, companies calls coming up steve grasso, why he is saying this stay at home stock is truly a goo