Transcripts For CNBC Street Signs 20240712

Wie the people will not surrender. But president Trumps Campaign demands a recount in wisconsin and files a lawsuit in georgia as he urges the Supreme Court to intervene in the electoral process. And bank of england policymakers lower their forecasts as they go back into lockdown well be speaking to the governor Andrew Bailey here on cnbc right now the u. S. Election remains too close to call with democratic candidate inching closer to victory. This is where things stand right now. Biden leads with 253 Electoral College votes and trump has 214. The tally leaves the former Vice President just short of the 270 votes needed to win. Counting is under way still right now in atlanta through the middle of the night and is set to continue throughout the morning. But lets take a closer look at some of the key battleground states and more detail in arizona, it remains too early to declare results but biden is ahead. And nevada is also too close to call but a win in both would bring him across the 270 line. Pennsylvania is still up for a grabs. Trumps lead is just under three percentage points. Meanwhile President Trump has tae attacked the election process has his campaign vowed to dispute the results in several key states trump said the integrity of the vote had been damaged. He also claims victory in pennsylvania, georgia and North Carolina despite no official source calling the race for him. Biden delivered a short address wednesday evening where he predicted victory, but urged his supporters to remain patient after a long night of counting, it is clear that were winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency im not here to declare that weve won. But i am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. The democrats mission to take control of the u. S. Senate is falling short with the party only flipping one republican seat so far. The results leave the gop with a one seat advantage but five races have yet to be called by nbc news one senate race in georgia will extend to a runoff in january 2021 if republicans keep the senate and joe biden wins the presidency, he would be the first commander in chief to answer Office Without full control of Congress Since 1989 and we can sdid see a big boe in u. S. Markets. We have the s p pointing up about 40 points, dow seen opening up around 250. And the nasdaq very strong day for tech stocks yesterday, also yet again seeing opening up 2 2 points are so. So ugs m. S. Markets pricing in a positive result. Professor, thank you for joining us while the results are still being compiled, it is looking pretty positive for joe biden and yet President Trump is in no mood to concede and has launched multiple Legal Proceedings from a legal standpoint, how long do you think it will take for us to get clarity on the cases being worked through the system and are we likely to get a resolution on the next couple weeks in that front . Im not a lawyer, so i shoulds can claim thshould s c s c disclaim that. But i think that it will be sooner rather than later there are deadlines in each state and there has to be some outcome of the election in place in order to he seat the right lectors for the Electoral College in december. So it cant go on indefinitely and this was even the sort of underscoring of the ruling in bush versus gore in the 2000 election is that you cant keep on recounting things indefinitely when there has to be a decision that needs to be made in order to see the next president in time to meet the constitution al obligation of getting them seated by january 20 and yet many Trump Supporters are saying that the vote has been rigged even though there is no evidence to that effect do you think the fact that the Trump Campaign is going down this route of introducing Legal Proceedings is likely to have a Lasting Impact on how people will look back on this election and potentially the whom democratic process in the future i think that, one, the president is entitled to use whatever legal recourses at his disposal to try to defend his campaign especially in elections where the mar begin begmargins thin but the judges have to interpret the law and facts at hand. So in the court of public opinion, the president and his Campaign Team have certainly made allegations that will be very influence sham to htial be believe what he says in general. But in a court of law, you have to bring evidence. So if the cases are frivolous, if they lark substance, then we hope that the Legal Process will run its course and these cases will be exposed as such. But if there is actual evidence that needs to be investigated, then there may be something for the judges to act on so it is a question of does it need to go all the way to the Supreme Court and does the fact pattern move r. Warrawarrant mog having watched Rudy Giulianis press conference, i wasnt quite sure what the basis for the fact was and working with a legal analyst at my local nbc affiliate, that he didnt see much substance to the lawsuit that has been filed in georgia of course we are rating for the final result, but one thing is clear so far, that the democrats were denied the land slide victory that many had been predicting where do you think the pollsters went wrong and where do you think the democrats went wrong in not achieving this land slide . I think it is true. We have too beinghavdo acknowles reveal hes a very deeply divided america. So even if donald trump doesnt win reelection, we still have to deal with the chasms and decisio divisions that are apparent. I think that well probably go back to how we weighted demographics and well look to see if certain groups were underrepresented in polling and if those preferences were actually going to be influential. I think ultimately well have to see what the final count is. With what we may find is that as all of the votes get tallied and the results get certified, that especially in the popular vote race for the presidency is that we might actually see actual results that fall into line with what some of the National Polls were predicting. I think it is too early to see i want to wait for the final vote. But we will be looking at Key Senate Races and wonder why we thought democrats would perform better than they actually did and look at sampling and look at sort of just the quality of those stakeholds and how would you characterize President Trumps chances of securing a second term because the margins are razor thin, you know, we have to see whether or not the legal challenges get any votes thrown out, that could spell the difference between winning or losing a state or changing some of the calls that have already been made. Right now just looking at where President Trump is in nevada and arizona, he is currently behind joe biden. So joe biden maintains his lead, it is game over. And in georgia, the number keeps on contracting so when i went to bed, it was about 40,000 votes and i do bad a rit maarithmetic when im gro but now he is within 30,000 votes. And so even if job loses georgia, he wins nevada and arizona, he doesnt actually need georgias votes but the fact that he has come within hairs reath, well less than a percentage point of beating donald trump, is notable. And so it shows how divided the country is but also how competitive georgia is as a state. Indeed would be a very significant swing. Thank you very much for joining us today, professor. And for the latest on the election results, check out cnbc. Com where we have it all covered. And were just an hour into the tradie session. And extending the gains that we saw come through yesterday the stoxx 600 advanced 2 yesterday, its best daily performance since the middle of june cac 40 was outperformer yesterday gaining about 2. 4 so green across the board and this morning gains are being led by the italian market. And taking a look at the secretasector sectors, technology is up 2. 4 the clear outperformer and yesterday in the u. S. Session, we saw the nasdaq accelerate 3. 8 . So the European Tech rally following the rally we saw on wall street. Utilities also performing well this morning industrials, media, construction and retail so the down side, travel and leisure, oil and gas, banks down about 0. 8 we did get the bank of england come through this morning with a decision to expand their Asset Purchase Program keeping rates on hold. Take a look at the u. S. Yield curve. Yesterday we did see u. S. Accele. In terms of what it means for bond markets, investors seemed to be pricing in the possibility that we get a democrat president with senate controlled by the republicans and that may mean less physical callfiscal stimulu wave and we are seeing now yields on the two year u. S. Treasury trade at 0. 14 over the ten year here, yields at 0. 73 . European yields, this morning here the ten year german bund trading negative, yields lower across the bound as investors put money to work in equities and seem to be position palso putting it into work in the italian bnd mond markets. Coming up, back of england expands stimulus while downgrading the british economy. And in atlanta, georgia counting is still under way. Well have the latest on the results. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Welcome back to street signs. The bank of england has increased its as set purchase target to 890 pounds more than expected increased stimulus comes amid a growth downgrade of 11 this year Andrew Bailey will be on cnbc in a couple hours time. Lets take a look at how the currency has reacted you can see the big jump occurred just when the announcement came out. Note it did come out at 7 00 a. M. This morning because well be hearing from the chancellor later. Also the dollar has been trading weaker this morning. And three month employed vol has fallen to its lowest level since mid august and typically that is something that you would see after elections anyway we also have fresh comments from the bank of england, he says that we believe there is value in acting quickly and strongly to support the economy with asset purchases if the outlook for inflation weakens, the committee stands ready to take whatever action is need to achieve its remit. And the direct affects of covid are assumed to fade but have persistent indirect affects on the economy. So early comments from Andrew Bailey more positive comments than you would expect to hear he says were not in the middle of a double dip recession because our forecast does not have two consecutive quarters of negative Economic Growth so w shaped economy doesnt count as a recession even though we could have a negative Second Quarter and negative fourth quarter. It doesnt technically constitute a recession and then the other big question is what they will do with Interest Rates bailey is saying that they will not put a time line on the work that they are doing the work but no confirmation that it is headed in that direction and we also heard the governor say i want to get back to a situation where banks set dividends themselves, take sensible decisions on charges. And we do have results coming through in the banking sector. This in the Italian Space so just putting that out there. Unicredit has topped estimates more than double the average analysts had forecast. The bank strengthened its Capital Buffers and confirmed its if you would year targets. Germany, commerzbank has reported a net loss of 69 Million Euros. It booked over 200 Million Euros in restructuring costs the Bank Increased provisioning as the pandemic continues to weigh and also post a loss for the full year. And alternatively, Societe Generale is beating analyst expectations so that stock is up. But net profit fell just over 34 . Their deputy ceo talked about the companys rebound in the Third Quarter after the french lender posted a net loss of 1. 2 billion youeuros. The ability to still rebound in this difficult environment. And there is growth compared to last year of around 15 . So the main part of that is normalization. And in this market normalization condition, we are to generate significant revenue. We will be reducing significa significantly, but we have to wait the quarters to see the real impact of the redesigning of our product mix and moving to the netherlands, ing has posted a 37 fall amid lending growth he was more optimistic about the future lockdowns the second lockdown that we already see in our major markets will not be like the first the first ways an unknown of what would happen. I think that we are shall we say more knowing what the drill would be the Government Support in a name of the sectors within europe and across the world and so we are cautiously optimistic that the second lockdown will not be as bad as the first. And intesa cited a rebound in core revenues. And booked a 3. 3 billion euro takeover profit. And speaking to cnbc earlier this morning, the ceo said he expected the bank to be in a strong position. We posted 1. 3 billion euros of provisions for the corporate environment all right. And so we already are in a very good position conditioning the impact of the pandemic situation. But looking at the transaction, 3. 3 billion euro and 1. 3 exceeding our expectation net. So we have roughly 2 billion euros more of growth provisions that we can post in order to accelerate leveraging. That is our priority we want to go into twuns as tnie Strongest Bank in europe and the u. S. Election outcome still hangs in the balance as joe biden leads President Trump 253 to 214 in the crucial Electoral College votes. This as the democrats failed to pick up senate seats that they were banking on. With that, lets bring in erik nielsen. Great to have you on the show. Turning to the main story of the day and that is the u. S. Elections, what does a biden presidency alongside a republican leaning senate mean for their ability to push through fiscal stimulus . The market had been banking on a big reflationary impulse out of the u. S. But now it seems less likely yeah, i think that it is a surprising result. A lot of things to take in here. But i would still think that you will get a big fiscal stimulus package in a biden presidency with a republican dominated senate but of course it will be harder to negotiate but all politicians at this stage seeing the effect of the pandemic would appreciate i think that there is a need for substantial fiscal stimulus, but maybe it would be more across the economy than we otherwise might thought have been. And one interesting characteristic is that big chunk of the biden supporters believe that biden would do better at handling the pandemic and equally a big chunk of the Trump Supporters thought trump would do a better job at handling the economy. Is it right to frame the discussion and from that perspective and that it is black or white, one or the other, so you choose the economy or choose curbing the economy . In many senses it also reflects the narrative going on in europe today as well. I think that is a very good point. And i dont agree with what the tradeoff the reason why people think in america that trump is better at handling the economy is that the u. S. Economy overall has done well over his period and the stock market has done women during his presidency. Part of that of course is the big tax cuts hedid and the fewer regulations which most europeans would probably question the sustainability of but certainly people look back and it is undeniable that things have gone well in that sense on the pandemic, i assume, but i dont know, that biden would try to generate more of a federal approach rather than doing it with the states, approach it more like european way of doing it so i think that is the likely outcome. I want to focus in on what were seeing in europe from a policy perspective we heard from the bank of england going ahead and expanding their Asset Purchase Program. Were looking forward to a december ecb meeting at this point, how much more can additional stimulus do to actually support and accelerate the recovery in the real economy . I think the answer is that it all depends on the fiscal side in my opinion, much of policy has become relatively ineffective in stimulating but Monetary Policy has now started to play second fiddle finally to the fiscal policy. And that is the way it should be so the role of Monetary Policy now, i think you want to think more about it in terms of preventing a tightening of monetary conditions that otherwise would have come with the big fiscal programs. So it is more a supportive role. In fact they have been calling for, for a long time, when they wrote about much onetary policy tried to do too much but now fiscal policy is doing its role and in terms of fiscal policy, one of the risks that investors and economists seem to be looking at is if you institute somewhat blanket fiscal policy, you end up supporting industries and jobs that otherwise could have and should have died off and that could potentially lead to a productivity handicap for europe versus the u. S. Which has focused more on supporting income and jobs. The fiscal stimulus hinders the economy moving forward in. I hear this argument a lot. I find it inxle hencomprehend e think that people would think that those who have been hit more by the pandemic,hence think that people would think that those who have been hit more by the pandemic, there is an argument about Creative Destruction of course, but i agree that this is not a force of capitalism, it is a force of a pandemic so i would think if people think it is wrong to support the industries until the pandemic is gone, do they really believe that twothirds of the Airline Industry should disappear because we are not going to fly more than 20 or 30 of what we used to do or the restaurants, cafes, should they all die . I fundamentally disagree and i find it difficult to believe that anybody can see enough of the structures of the postpandemic world to let the pandemic decide who lives and who dies that is not the right time to do it very interesting point there. Er erik, thank you very much for joining us on street signs. And coming up, counting continues in georgia as the u. S. Election remains too close to call. Welcome back to street signs. These are your headlines european markets trade higher after the s p posts its best election gains in more than history. And the final vote tally continue in the president ial election revealing two key battleground wins for the democrats with joe biden saying that when the counting finishes, we will be winners we the people will not be silenced we the people will not be bullied. We the people will not surrender. But president Trumps Campaign demands a recount in wisconsin and files a lawsuit in georgia as he urges the Supreme Court to intervene in the electoral process. And back of england policymakers lower their growth forecasts but vote to keep rates unchanged. We speak to governor Andrew Bailey here on cnbc. So the u. S. Election remains tight with democratic candidate joe biden leading President Trump 253 to 214 in the Electoral College vote 270 votes are needed to secure a win. Alice barr has more. Reporter tonight Democrat Joe Biden pulling within striking distance of an electoral win as a handful of battleground states continue to count millions of votes. Im not here to declare that weve won with, but i am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winner reporter for President Trump, there are still paths to a second term, but some may lead through a courtroom. His campaign launching a barrage of legal challenges, demanding a recount in wisconsin where biden is the apparent winner if current results hold and trying to halt vote counting in michigan, virginia they are trying to make a mockery of the election. Reporter while President Trump used partial results to try to claim victory overnight, today his public presence was limited to a handful of tweets as biden ran up his lead before the democrat was projected the winner in michigan, selfproclaimed poll watchers tried to storm a vote counting facility in detroit but were rebuffed by police. Hours later, a similar scene outside the Locations Office in maricopa county, arizona and tonights tension and anxiety on display in several american cities, as demonstrators demand a fair count and an answer on who will sit in the white house for the next four years. Both campaigns are now in a new phase of fund raising asking supporters for donations to pay for the legal challenges ahead from the white house, alice barr, nbc news counting is under way right now in atlanta, georgia and is set to continue throughout the morning. There are some pictures for you of the election workers counting those votes. Coming up you, well be speaking with republican strategist bryan lanza. And we had a strong session yesterday and a strong close for wall street. And that is transpiring today on the board, a lot of green behind me ftse 100 in focus, we had the bank of england meeting where the bank decided to introduce another 150 billion pounds of quantitative easing. Were trading just above the flat line about 0. 1 firmer. At the bottom we have some of the key retailers trading in negative territory after announcing some layoffs. And we had again mixed results, but we are looking closely at the french banks, and two have performed well on back of better than expected earnings xetra dax also performing nicely and were seeing some of the cyclicals do quite well, some construction names in that basket performing with well. And then we also have domination from the italian index up 1. 3 despite another lockdown or semi lockdown being announced for some northern parts of the country there. So strong picture for europe and lets talk about what has been happening with yields the bank of england did introduce another package of quantitative easing. Guild guilts rallied. And lets turn to the ten year u. S. Treasury note back at 73 basis points. It was only a couple days ago where it was trading up as high as 90 basis points weve rallied almost 20 as the market unprices the possibility of a huge fiscal package that would have come with a blue sweep. So markets are accounting for the possibility of a smaller fiscal package turning to Foreign Exchange as well, we did see initially a bit of a spike in the u. S. Dollar yesterday, that has reversed this morning we are seeing a he reversal in some of yesterdays losses dollaryen, a bid for the yen is emerging this morning. And currency pair trading up above 130. So stronger session for the pound despite the fact that the bank of england has announced more easing. Typically you would see the pound go down, but again today is a function in the weakness of the u. S. Dollar. As for u. S. Futures, this is how the session is shaping up, all three majors are pointing to yet another positive session all eyes on the nasdaq a Strong Performance yesterday for the tech sector and that is set to continue yet again. Lets not forget we have corporate earnings continuing to role in temperature tele performance has raised its performance as it hailed its spoons to the pandem response to the pandemic and daniel, it is great to have you on the program it looks like you had a strong quarter. Talk us through where that strength is coming in and how long you see the positive tim lasting. Thank you yeah, we had an excellent quart quarter, double digit growth it comes from i would say everywhere in the world and most specifically it comes from the growth of all the ecommerce, the e learning, e entertaining and that has been a great driver for tele performance as well as our ability to convert all around the world into work from on home. Very quickly, from 10,000 people working from home to more than 200,000 people and that has been a force. So it soiit sounds like thin going very well for most of your businesses but today you confirmed your 2022 objectives. Do those targets look conservative now given the positive performance and the lasting nature of a lot of these drivers . It is always difficult when you are two years ahead to say that targets are conservative. I think that it is great that in this time we are able to confirm targets that are considered aggressive by the way, right now we just made wonderful acquisition of an end scale business in the usa and that will help us of course to deliver our target. You mentioned earlier that you are seeing an increasing number of your employees work from home. Im curious to see how that is impacting your overall cost structure. How is that impacting your overall margins . Right now there has baeen a transformation there are additional costs before you can make savings and it is too early today to know how it will impact because it is directly related to our real estate. But right now, we still keep all our real estate because we still didnt know what will be the what percentage of our employees will stay working from home, what percentage of our employees will come back brick and mortar. And what will be the rules of social distancing. So right now i would say we still have more costs, but long term, we should find some kind of saving and improve our margin you mentioned the acquisition that you maded a inquiring the u. S. Based Health Advocate company. And were closely eyeing the u. S. Location and it looks like the democrats havent managed to eek out a blue wave that many in that party were hoping for, but we may see a biden presidency. What does the outlook like like for your company if we did see a biden presidency with potentially a senate controlled by the republicans first i would say as a man in business, political employee try to be political ly when i manage my company the fact that we may have a biden presidency and republican led Senate Somehow may force some kind of bipartisan and reduce the tensions that we have had this last months or years and it is time for the usa to come back in business as usual and being the greatest market of the world. U. S. And political distraction do not go well together. Im curious to hear more commentary around your geographic exposure. Looking again at your earnings, it seems like you are doing particularly well in the senior regions in europe. What did you point that down to. I would say two different factors. We are doing extremely well in latan, but partially because there is some business that we did in the philippines for the u. S. Market in the English Market has moved due to the philippine specific situation. So the u. S. World does not look as strong, but there is always a shift. Always the serve the same large u. S. Market. For europe, we have been extraordinarily active and i would say that tele performance definitely won market share in europe and i think specifically related to our concept of marketing and development of made we call the comprehensive digital platform to run the employees totally digitally. Hiring, training, management, coaching, animation, everything is virtual, resilient and data securityproof all right sir, well leave it there. Thanks for joining us this morning. And coming up on the show, the u. S. Election hangs on a knife edge as votes continue to be counted in several key states here is the current state of the u. S. Election race democratic candidate joe biden has 253 Electoral College votes while President Trump has 214. Joining us now is bryan lanza, a republican strategist and former Communications Director for the trump transition team. Great to have you on the program. I want to kick off with what we heard in the last 24 hours or so from other members of the Republican Party, many who have been allies of President Trump in the past. And a lot of them have resisted falling in line with President Trump in the last 24 hours senator Mitch Mcconnell telling reporters that claiming youve won the election different from finishing the counting and senator marco rubio and Chris Christie also speaking out. What do you make of the fanlgts that so fact that some of the president s allies are not siding with him . I think that his allies just want to have tvotes counted. I know the president is only focused on his race and winning but his allies, they are looking longer term. They are looking down field around the corner and making sure that they stand where they feel is on the right side of these types of activities. It is a challenge for the president. I think the president is the only one in that position, but you know, you have to stand independently from time to time. It seems like a strange question to ask, but do you think we could end up in the situation where the president just refuses to concede . No. Listen, i think what you see is the president has exerted a very aggressive plan for what he thinks will get him across the finish line. We shouldnt be surprised that businessman has a plan and they will execute it. No different in an the biden campaign, they have their own plan and they are executing it the difference is this president is a little more vocal than previous candidates in the past. The president is a pretty transparent person, so he tells people what he is thinking that is part of the reason why he gained 5 million more votes than last time when he ran but listen, i think a lot of this is just bluster, a lot of this is the framing of the narrative. But i think beer fine. If the vote count is what some anticipate it being and we remain with a president elect biden, i think the president will gladly move on. What about President Trumps supporters if we do see biden take the victory here, 68 million or so i believe at this stage have voted for President Trump. What happens to those supporters and how does that affect the direction of the country this is why we have campaigns. Those supporters go back to work, they go back to organizing, registering, back to pushing whatever policy agenda why they joined the Republican Party. Our elections happen every two years, president ial every four some people walk away discouraged by the electoral process, some people double down and say i have to get moore invol more involved. It is healthy for some people to be disenchanted and some t motivated. So im not worried about the long term strength of the country. Well survive anything, we have survived everything. Were during a pandemic, we just had record election turnouts so i think were fine structurally as a country. Assuming President Trump does get defeated, what happens to trumpism within the Republican Party, does the Republican Party still rally behind some of the policies that trump introduced or is this going to be a party that will look introspectively and he redefine who it is and look forward to the next four years without potentially trump or one of trumps family members on the ticket . Im going to be bold this morning and say if President Trump were to lose a squeaker election which it looks like now, but it is not certain, i wouldnt be surprised if he ran again. You have to keep in mind, were going this into the election th night before or even the morning of and everybody said wed lose by dun double digits. Media was clearly putting a thumb on the scale to help joe biden getting across the finish line and President Trump would have barely lost if this is the narrative were seeking. I wouldnt be surprised if he stays active and if he ultimately runs again. No republican candidate has the strength to challenge him in a republican primary, so he could probably glide through the primary pretty quickly and so i dont think weve seen the last of President Trump. If you look at his came a rear, you see moments where he gets knocked down, but he immediately picks himself back up and puts him in an Even Stronger an winning position so if the president loses, i wouldnt be surprised if we see a donald j. Trump on the ticket in 2024. And many of his republican typical allies have broken with him over the last 24 hours and said look, we need to finish all of the counting before we can prematurely declare victory. He is putting his credibility on the line here with some of his staunchest allies. Do you expect them to remain loyal to him you know, his allies, this is washington, d. C. So you know, you dont really come to washington to find allies or friends, if that is what you are seeking, you buy a dog. So nobody is under any real illusion here of who political candidates are and politicians so yes, right now they probably look like they are distancing themselves from the president because they are covering their own political tail for lack of a better word, or backs, but, you know, at the end of the day, they have never necessarily agreed on everything there are some disagreements here i think that it is health any those disagreements. I do think the president is moving down a line that makes a lot of us uncomfortable and we should be able too 1kr express e things but if were talking about the president s credit ability, i think the republican laeblgtsed officials look at the last 3 1 2 years and they can judge whether they trust the president or nofnof knot in all right, briyan, appreciat you joining us and were in for further gains for the wall street. And that is it for street signs. Squawk beto orourke squawk bot good morning washington, wall street, main street, all in waiting mode at this hour. The president ial election outcome is still uncertain, but what about the senate . That isnt done yet either but as continuing legal battles begin or are beginning and will continue for a while, stocks continue to rally look at this morning, 330 on the dow. And this special edition of squawk box begins right now. We may make