Transcripts For CNBC Street Signs 20240712

Writeoff. As Boris Johnson promised more testing and tracing, which we dont have in the uk, we could sxr would have avoided a second lockdown. President trump raises questions about voter integrity in his rallies as democratic joe biden leads ten points days ahead of the election. The American People will not be silenced over a 90 Million People have already voted. Already voted. Theyve had enough theyve had enough theres too much on the line to sit it out chinas factory activity roars to life in october, expanding at its fastest rate in a decade, sending asian markets higher well, a very warm welcome to street signs. We have a packed week for you, which kicks off with some data lets look at the eurozone final manufacturing pmi for the month of october the eurozone figure has come in at 54. 8, higher than the flash estimate of 54. 4 in terms of whats actually been seen across the eurozone, manufacturing growth in the eurozone soared in october, but the recovery from the severely depressed level seen at the height of the pandemic was mostly driven by germany the german Manufacturing Sector seeing a strong recovery in activity, but, of course, the big question now is what happens moving forward, how useful is this data given its for the month of october and so much has changed since then of course, a lot of that data is looking stale as we were discussing last week for the ecb on a forwardlooking basis the data is beginning to turn south. Something is worth bearing in mind. Lets take a look at how markets are faring this morning. The stoxx 600 is a bit of difficulty this morning. Thats due to some input data problems, according to the index operator contigo we do have movement on some of the other indices, namely the ftse, all eyes on the uk open. Thanks very much. Lets take a look at where we stand in terms of the trading session. We have green across the board now, all eyes on the uk market with Prime Minister Boris Johnson going ahead over the weekend and announcing a new National Lockdown. Something he had been very publicly against in the past a lot were wondering, what will that mean for uk equities . We have green on the board ftse up 6 , that masks some big differences, divergence among sectors in the uk. Were seeing a strong bid for some sectors that have performed well during the first part of the pandemic the grocers, the construction companies, the online food Takeaway Companies on the flip side, though, were seeing some negative moves in the travel sector. Lets take a look at uk travel as you can see here, we have the ez jet shares down 5 , ryanair down 1 . We got some numbers from ryanair this morning, idiosyncratic specific thats being offset by other gains in the uk market. Prime minister Boris Johnson will present his Fresh National lockdown to Parliament Today ahead of a vote on wednesday the new restrictions are due to come into effect this thursday and last until december 2nd. There are already warnings this could be extended. Steve joins from us london the news over the weekend caught many by surprise since johnson was vehemently against a lockdown as recently as last week what changed reporter i think the markets are trying to work out what changed . For most of the last hour, the ftse has been in negative territory. Popped literally a decimal of a point in the last couple of minutes or so. Given the fact we fell 5 last week in trade thering, multispaf month lows, its not much of a rally. The grave concern is well be dragged lower by concerns of this lockdown, by concerns we still have brexit negotiations still going on as we heard from Michael Oleary from ryanair, we dont know what that will mean for stocks and various sectors. Boris johnson, dominic raab saying they did not want a National Lockdown but the scientific and medical community, the socalled sage group of advisers basically put it very bluntly to the Prime Minister that if we carried on the current trajectory, there was a chance the worst Case Scenario would be extended which encompassed 85,000 deaths in a second wave over the winter that would peak at about 4,000 deaths per day. Theres a lot of contention about those numbers. Certainly those in more hawkish front in terms of those that want to keep the economy going say there are big clouds over the veracity of those figures. Boris johnson, when presented this by the likes of chris witty, thought he was boxed into a corner and had a cabinet ministers meeting on saturday. The results were leaked left, right and the center there were all accusations going around a delayed speech by the Prime Minister on saturday and today finally, finally, members of parliament, our elected representatives will get a chance to quiz the Prime Minister today about the plans for the National Lockdown, which as you say, starts on the 2nd of this month lets listen in to some rationale from the Prime Minister in this country, alas, as across much of europe, the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst Case Scenario of our scientific advisers, whose models, you have just seen, suggest that unless we act, we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day, a peak of mortality, alas, bigger than the one we saw in april. As youve just seen, even in the southwest where incidents were so low and still is so low, its now clear, though, that the current projections mean that hospitals in the southwest will run out of capacity in just a matter of weeks. Unless we act. Going back to the fullscale lockdown of march and april, the measures that ive outlined, less primitive, less restrictive, but im afraid from thursday the basic message is the same stay at home, protect the nhs and save lives reporter its probably worth me going through some details of the lockdown for those of our viewers that havent seen it pubs, restaurants, gyms, hospitality, retail, nonessential jobs, places of worship are to close as well you are allowed outside for only essential supplies, medical reasons, outdoor exercise, visiting members of your support bubble as well, and of course to take the children to school, college and nurseries as well. This is one very contentious area where hundreds of thousands, millions of children in the United Kingdom will still be going to school my children went to school this morning. Will they be transmitting it back and forth thats another big area of contention no one is allowed a holiday in the uk or abroad as well work trips will be allowed but construction sites, manufacturing will be open, beauty salons and hair dressers will be shut as well its a very interesting mix. I have spoken to various people in various industries who think they can carry on, including my chi chiropractor, the opticians. Others say this is quite damning and will be brutal in terms of keeping their businesses going, especially in the retail trade and hospitality trade will find it very difficult. Especially in the month of november theyll be hoping for a respite in november, which may or may not come. We heard the cabinet minister saying, if we have to extend it, well extend it. Its not just businesses unhappy with the news we heard you have up to 100 mps who think these restrictions have gone too far. What is fragmentation within the conservative party mean for Boris Johnson later down the road and could it spell problems for him . Yeah, i think a lot of people are talking about Boris Johnson is and his role as Prime Minister and how hes handled these challenges of 2020, both brexit and, indeed, covid19 theres been a whole lot of oscillation and some would say uturns from the Prime Minister. The head of the 1992 committee, duncan smith, both highly critical of the Prime Minister over the weekend as well it will be interesting to see what those back benches and others have to say steve baker, former brexit minister, one as well. There is some form of support from the leader of the Labor Opposition Party as well with those labor votes, it looks like the key vote on thursday about extending these restrictions about going into a second lockdown, it looks like it will pass, despite theres a whole lot of people who think the cure for the covid issue we are seeing will create a hole host of other illnesses, mental health, for the huge waiting list im just outside st. Thomas hospital, one key london hospital, the hospital where Boris Johnson received treatment for covid as well. There are grave concerns what it means for a whole host of illnesses and the economy itself whether we can afford it, afford the furlough scheme, which started today. That was contentious for the northern assemblies, the red wall mps who breached those labor seats in the general election last year as well a lot of them saying, why didnt we get this earlier . Why didnt he we get this support earlier . Whi is it only when the southern england goes into lockdown we get this support questions remain to be seen. Tricky month coming up. Steve, thanks for the breakdown, live from westminster. Were one day away from the u. S. Elections democratic nominee joe biden holds a lead over President Trump, but polls have tightened as the election nears. Both candidates have held a flurry of events trump traveled to every corner of the country and will hold over a dozen rallies ahead of the election the president used this weekends events to question the integrity of the vote count. I think its a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. Its terrible when we cant know the results of the election the night of a election in a modern day of computer. I think its a terrible thing. And i happen to think it was a terrible decision for our country, made by the Supreme Court. I think it was a terrible decision for our country and a very dangerous decision because youre going to have one or two or three states, depending on how it ends up, where theyre tabulating ballots and the rest of the world is waiting to find out. I think theres great danger to it and i think a lot of fraud and misuse can take place. I think its a terrible decision by the Supreme Court a terrible decision. I dont know if thats going to be changed because were going to go in the night of as soon as that elections over, were going in with our lawyers. For some clues on how markets may react on the back of the u. S. Elections, lets get to the head of research for style analytics, damien. Im very curious to see the research and your findings because youre showing irrespective of the outcome, whether we get a democratic president or republican president , there are certain baskets that will still outperform regardless. Can you tell us a little more why thats the case . Sure. We were actually rather surprised by this result everyones talking about what happens if biden wins, what happens if trump wins. It turns out over the last nine elections we looked at, in seven of those nine, it didnt really matter whether a republican or democrat won small cap stocks, so the smaller companies, value stocks, ones that the market has not yet fully priced, so its a good buying opportunity, examples of that are novartis or walmart in the u. S. And highvolatile stocks, things most people stay away from because the prices move around so much. High volatility stocks, different stocks get into that category netflix qualifies, paypal qualifies as well as bayer those are the kind of stocks that outperform the market regardless of which party takes control of the white house it even is independent of whether its an incumbent winning reelection or a brandnew president coming in. Do you take prior performance into consideration again, to go back to what your saying about Growth Stocks, if you look at the tech stocks this year, which are basically analogous with Growth Stocks, theyve been the outperforming index in the u. S. Markets. Up more than 20 and yet investors have already started to trim some of their positions going into the event tomorrow what would you recommend investors do here given your analytics show that Growth Stocks should outperform but already weve had such a big outperformance on the year already . Right so, actually Growth Stocks are not in the category of stocks that outperform after an election value stocks often considered the opposite of growth, although thats an over simplification. So, Growth Stocks are not the ones that historically have done well after elections largely, this has to do with the fact that new president s or reelected president s tend to bring stimulus packages in with them, so theyre pumping money into the economy that stimulates value stocks more than it stimulates Growth Stocks that may sound counterintuitive because youre putting money in, Growth Stocks should do well, but its an inflationary action, putting money into the economy like that. And in a rising Interest Rate environment, Growth Stocks rise. Thats what we see roughly in the half year after u. S. Elections. This doesnt just apply to u. S. Markets. This also applies to europe. That was another surprising result europe shows just as strong signals for the u. S. For the exact same effect in six months after a u. S. President ial election i want to go a little further, though, in this value versus growth debate because it feels like possibly the most important question investors are asking, and many investors have been burned time and time again trying to go long value in place of growth and it just hasnt worked i understand looking back historically it suggests value stocks should outperform postelection, but what about in this Interest Rate environment when investors are searching for yield and that is a big part of what makes these Growth Stocks attractive that doesnt seem likely to change any time soon i agree betting against amazon is a bad idea history shows growth does well im want going to suggest Growth Continues to go up markets go up after elections. Thats the first most important thing. Regardless of what type of stock people rl investing in, markets go up after elections. Thats almost universally true what type of stocks outperform the market typically its been the value stocks, not the Growth Stocks. The last ten years weve had a low Interest Rate environment. Growth stocks and Technology Stocks have been taking off. Those trades are pretty crowded at this point. The faang stocks, the fact there is an acronym for just a handful of stocks means everybody and their mother is already buying in it might be time to reconsider that and allocate a little less do growth and more to value. That wouldnt be an unreasonable thing to position the portfolio with. Lastly on joe bidens tax plan, early in the election cycle, investors seemed more concerned about joe bidens proposal to raise Corporate Taxes from 21 to 28 , the tax rate it seems as though those concerns have abated somewhat. Is there a chance this tax proposal reenters the debate and acts as a headwind for some of these value trades . Thats an interesting question it certainly is. Lets also remember, this analysis, interestingly, covers the period from the election through six months later the president doesnt actually take office until two months into that period, so weave heard president ial candidates propose a lot of different things. The reality of what comes to pass is a little different its not just the president that passes the tax plan. Its also the congress that has to approve it. We do need to see who controls the senate we know with good certainty the democrats will continue to control the house unless theres a huge turnaround so, theres a lot of questions about what the Corporate Tax rate is actually going to imply. Actually, i would suggest that the Corporate Tax plan, if it is negatively affecting companies next year, its going to hit the Growth Stocks probably more than the value stocks. Well leave it there. Thank you for your insight damien handcy, head of research at style analytics. Cnbc will bring you special coverage on Election Night coming up on this show, well hear from ryanair ceo Michael Oleary as they report its first summer loss in decades. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Welcome back to street signs. The stoxx 600 is up for trading after technical difficulties in the morning. It is a positive start to the day. Stoxx 600 is, indeed, up about 0. 4 of a percentage point. The heat map is split but leaning more towards positive territory for the early minutes of trading after technical difficulties as we flagged a while ago. Getting into some specific stocks, ryanair has posted a near 200 million euro loss for the First Six Months of its fiscal year that ended in september. This was the first time in he can did aids the irish Budget Airline posted a loss for its crucial summer season. The coronavirus restrictions cut its passenger numbers by 80 for that period. The company warned further capacity cuts may be needed for the upcoming anally season if the pandemic worsens speaking to krncnbc, the ceo Michael Oleary says further lockdowns may hit passenger traffic. This time were working off a winter schedule where we hope to carry 38 million passengers for the whole year as we said this morning, if there are more mismanaged lockdowns across europe, the uk introduced one this weekend, that number may have to be adjusted downward. The adjustments will be small. We think there will be a core of essential travel that will take place this winter. Fundamentally were talking about a number onethird less than our normal annual traffic and will remain that way until we have a credible or effective vaccine and means an end to the failed lockdowns just give us your thoughts on the lockdown thats been initiated by the Prime Minister. Do you think it was the right thing to do . Well, the w. H. O. Themselves confirmed lockdowns should be the last option. Theyre a failure. The reason you put in place a lockdown is for preventative measures very few european governments have done that we had the first lockdown in the spring that essentially wasted the summer we as industry have been calling for much more tests or tracing as Boris Johnson promised, world class testing and tracing which we dont have in the uk, we could have avoided a second lockdown its clear air travel is in the front line of this pandemic. People are unwilling to travel where there is huge uncertainty over things like quarantines or lockdowns. And we think the only way out of this is for governments, the british, irish and other european governments to introduce predeparture testing so people can verify for themselves theyre covidfree within 72 hours of departure and no requirements for these lockdown restrictions. Easyjet ceo says they are looking at other options to secure financing, saying they are not against state aid. He claims the Coronavirus Crisis has been so severe the industry cant be expected to cope on its own. They warned earlier the annual loss for the fiscal year that ended in september could amount to 845 million pounds. Ocado raised guidance on back of record demand for online products the retail grocer expects its full year ebitda to come in at 60 million compared to 40 million bounds they are buying two robotics companies. You can see shares up nearly 10 . Also boosted by the prospect of yet another lockdown in the uk. Stay with us coming up on the show, record numbers have cast their votes in the u. S. Election raising concerns how results will be delivered. More on that in just a few moments. Welcome back to street signs. Im Julianna Tatelbaum Boris Johnson prepares to present his new National Lockdown to Parliament Amid a virus resurgence. Airline slump on the back of the news that easyjet says it needs more support while ryanair ceo tells cnbc this winter will be a writeoff. We had a more testing and tracing provision, which Boris Johnson promised world class, which we dont have in the uk, we could have and would have avoided a second lockdown. Rising demand with ocado to the top of the stoxx 600. President trump raises questions over voter integrity in his final Campaign Rallies saying it would be a terrible thing if vote counting extended past election day. I think its a terrible decision by the Supreme Court, a terrible decision. Now, i dont know if thats going to be changed because were going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over, were going in with our lawyers. Weve got a little more data crossing the wires now this time from the United Kingdom, the october final manufacturing pmi. Its come in at 53. 7 stronger than the flash estimate of 53. 3. A stronger recovery in the Manufacturing Sector in the month of october they lost more momentum in october, especially among consumer goods makers. That is relative to where we were in september at 54. 1. Again, up from the preliminary reading. Better than expected, but slower than what we saw in september. Of course, economists now looking ahead given the changes that have been imposed in the United Kingdom, kicking off with what we heard this weekend going back into lockdown in england here lets take a look at european markets. On the back of that, i guess there was a lot of expectation into the ftse 100 open and the view is we would open on the back foot. Indeed, the opening points just a few hours ago were pointing to a negative open. You can see we have the ftse 100 surprisingly trading up 0. 7 this morning, up in positive territory. Perhaps aided by the movements in currency. Ill get to that in a second you can see other majors in europe we have the cac in france, 1. 3 firmer dax in germany up 1. 6 as well a lot of the delivery companies, as we mentioned, are on the front foot this morning. Ocado shares up 10 . Other Consumer Staples performing quite well despite the lack of performance in the Airline Stocks and for obvious reasons given the lockdowns are taking place not just in the uk but were seeing increasing amount of restrictions on the continent as well very negative for the Airline Stocks switching to foreign exchange, lets take a look at the currencies you can see the pound is trading on the back foot, down below 129 handle, about 0. 4 weaker. We had a better week thats also playing into the Currency Pairs dollar yen shy of the 105 handle euro started to trade on the back foot post the ecb meeting last week. The president Christine Lagarde promised more action weve seen the euro trade south somewhat lets take a look at how u. S. Futures are shaping up we had a negative session for the session on friday with all of the three majors trading in negative territory dow had the worst month since march. A similar thing for nasdaq you can see today the picture is positive we have s p, dow and nasdaq opening up in positive territory with the nasdaq seen up 140 points and the dow up 370. We also got data in the overnight session. Chinese manufacturing has expanded at fastest rate since january 2011 the pmi came in better than expected for caixin. Demand and supply improved as chinas economic recovery from the pandemic appears to pick up speed. In the u. S. , more than 93 million americans have already cast their vote for president , shrugging off concerns over the pandemic and postal delays thats according to data from Analytics Firm target smart and nbc news which predicts over 150 million votes may be cast for the first time President Trump trails biden by ten Percentage Points among registered voters ahead of tuesdays election, according to the latest nbc news wall street poll which found a majority of response due to the pandemic bidens lead over the president narrowing in several key swing states. Steven kaufman joins us. Its great to have you on the program this morning you were recount attorney for al gores campaign in florida following the 2000 president ial election how does this campaign, this election cycle feel compared to then are there similarities that stick out to you that are useful for investors to be aware of heading into tuesday yeah, as i see whats happening right now is the republicans are turning to their 2000 florida playbook and using that as a basis for the orchestrated effort were seeing right now by the president and the republicans to undermine the election process President Trump told reporters over the weekend, a quote, were going to go in as soon as that election is over, were going in with our lawyers. What happens how does it play out if President Trump declares victory on Election Night before all the votes are counted . I think the real key here is, you know, the critical issue this time around is the votebymail ballots and the president has done everything in his being to undermine the credibility of votebymail ballots hes claimed theyre fraudulent. Hes tried to defund the post office and the republican lawsuits at this point have been designed to oppose laws that states have enacted to try and make votebymail easier for people and to make it easier on Election Officials to count those ballots. And the reality is with votebymail ballots, that many of them dont get processed until after Election Night, particularly in these circumstances where were seeing such high levels of voting taking place of Election Officials are inundated with ballots. There was a disparity among states between allowing Election Officials to begin counting those ballots now. Many states have already begun tallying the ballots theyre not allowed to actually push the button and see the results of those ballots but theyre about to be the process of verifying votebymail ballots and putting them into the system other states have to wait until Election Night to do that. We are going to see a delay in some states and i think the key will be which of those states will be delayed and how conclusive are the votes going to be by Election Night. Just to pick up on that, if there is a contested results, the closest president we have to that is what happened in 2000. Youre an expert you were part of the Attorney Group for al gore, representing al gore at the time. What we saw back then was the case got escalated all the way up to the Supreme Court which eventually ended up voting in favor of the republican george bush back then in 2000, but again and along ideological lines. What type of precedent does that set for today, given the current composition of the Supreme Court, which is leaning towards the conservative side . It sets a terrible precedent. The decision rendered in that case was a political decision. And im sure that the republicans and the president are relying on that, quote, precedent, for what may come out of this election you heard the president at the beginning of this segment talking about lawyers running in on Election Night to try and disenfranchise voters who have done nothing but follow the rules and try and cast their ballots. Its beyond me why in this day and age the republicans insist on trying to limit peoples ability to vote instead of tryingto expand and make opportunities available for everybody to get their ballots cast and to get them counted. Can i just ask you under what scenario you would imagine the election result actually being escalated to the Supreme Court it would take a lot to get there because the states do do have the ability to dictate how their elections are run, but i could imagine a scenario in which the republicans try and create a circumstance where votes are being counted one way in one state and theyll argue theyre being treated differently in another state somehow, this creates a lack of integrity in the election process. But the fact of the matter is that management of elections has been left to the states. It existed that way before bush versus gore. And it exists that way today and until thats changed, difference states will have different processes for processing votebymail ballots. In the state im from, california, as long as you mail your ballot, as long as its postmarked by election day, those ballots can be received for up to 17 days after the election and still get processed and counted, versus other states where ballots wisconsin, for example, florida and georgia, some of these key swing states, where ballots have to be received by election day or Election Night in order to be counted. These are great differences between the states and shows the differences that can take place when you have governors in one state who are and legislators that are trying to be as inclusive as possible and other states that are trying to be exclusive as possible in the way that they enable people to vote. One critical state in focus in regards to this ballot counting is pennsylvania the Supreme Court has taken a decision ruling last week pennsylvania can count absentee ballots as late as november 6th as long as theyve been postmarked by november 3rd theres some concern among democrats that we could see the Supreme Court visit this issue if the republicans decide to take it up with them again after november 3rd what do you think the likelihood is we see republicans challenge the pennsylvania ruling after the election if so, how significant would that be . Well, i think there is a likelihood the republicans will try and challenge the results in pennsylvania unless we see a convincing number for Vice President biden early in the evening. But i think there is a chance they could choose to do that and the Supreme Court essentially left the door open in its ruling to considering a challenge again. The court voted 44. The newest justice was not on the court at that time when that verdict was decided, when that ruling was made. And the Court Essentially said, we dont have time to really engage in this issue before the election some of the conservative justices wrote, you know, opinions on that, which essentially suggest they could be receptive to further consideration of the republican challenges after the election. And i think thats what the republicans are banking on at this point. Thank you so much for joining us and sharing your thoughts former canadian finance minister believes the u. S. Election will provide an opportunity to improve trade terms with north america morneau told me his country will continue to work with the winner of tomorrows vote. Inca nad yans are hopeful we can find a way to continue to work together, and certainly from my perspective, on a lot of the key issues well see a continued need to engage with the united states, to make sure that the u. S. Moves forward with policies that can be important for the world, including on climate. As we just talked about, on dodge. President trump, when earlier on in his tenure as president called nafta the worst deal ever made he renegotiated it as the usmca. Im curious what you think the future looks like when it comes to trade in north america . Well, i was very aware of that because i was on the negotiating team and spent a lot of time with my thencounterpart Steven Mnuchin on the negotiation of the new nafta it seems to me that what we have an opportunity for north america to continue to be successful in trading together i see the opportunity for that to continue. The nafta the new nafta, what we did is created a sense of stability. Obviously, thats important for businesses to continue investing. As we come out of the pandemic, i expect well see continued investment on integration of north american supply chains thats the goal. It will be positive for all of our citizens by raising our opportunities for growth stay with us coming up on the show, President Trump and rival joe biden hold a flurry of events in the king swing states of pennsylvania and an intense weekend of campaigning ahead of tuesdays election welcome back to street signs. According to a key indicator from Research Firm cfra. The study found the sitting president or the party has lost nearly 90 of the time when the s p falls in the three months leading into the vote. This year the index has declined slightly during that period. Nbcs dhas more. Reporter with the campaign in the final hours, the candidates spent the day manging a swing through the swing states. Hello, philadelphia. Reporter stops in pennsylvania for former Vice President joe biden. In two days we can put an end to a presidency that is divided this nation. Reporter the Biden Campaign riding high in the polls the final nbc news wall street journal poll gives biden a tenpoint lead nationally. Two days from now we are going to win the state of michigan again reporter the president started the day in michigan, then traveled to iowa. We should know the result of the election on november 3rd the evening of november 3rd. Reporter later in the day, he touched down in North Carolina if you look at North Carolina, were doing great. Were doing i think were doing well all over. And wheile the campaign winds down, the texas Supreme Court giving the okay to 127,000 drivein ballots in harris county. Weve seen over 300 lawsuits in this election were seeing it in the battleground states, the nonbattleground states. Reporter and early voting is coming to an end in many states. 190 million americans have already cast ballots. Lets bring in the founding founder of Corner Office strategy great to have you with us, anthony. We were talking about more than 90 Million People in the u. S. Have already voted either mailing in or in person. The conventional wisdom is that this higher turnout already is a positive sign for the democrats. Do you tend to agree with that assessment number one, thank you for having me. I do tend to agree with that 94 million, i just checked that data, the number is now 94 million americans have already cast their ballots this is 40 hours away from when polls close. I have to tell you, thats such a big number twothirds, if you will, of the total vote in 2016 now, let me just step back and put this election in context at its core, this election is a referendum on the current president. Did he do what he said he would do are you any better off four years ago today than you were four years ago the answer to that for so Many Americans, and american businesses, is a resounding no this is despite the pretty positive gdp data we got last thursday Many Americans feel that the economy is not working for them. Ive got to tell you, having experienced economic anxiety myself, there is no there is no worse type of anxiety in the world than economic insecurity and anxiety and i think some of that is behind this incredible surge in the early go numbers you just talked about. How much do you think the situation overall was affected by the pandemic and covid . Prior to the pandemic, the president was going very high on his performance economically and was more trusted versus joe biden in terms of his handling of the economy clearly things have nose dived and taken a turn for the worse today the polls show joe biden is more trusted to deal with the pandemic but trump is still slightly ahead on the economy. How much of where we are today is just a function of the pandemic hitting during of the course of the summer thats the right way to think about this when i step back and take a look about where we are now, if this election was based on the economy, you know, rightly or wrongly, i think donald trump would be ahead i would argue the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, has had more to do with how people view the economy than the president s policies having said that, you know, we cannot escape the fact that what people are living with right now in terms of how they view the economy is all through the prism of this coronavirus. Were talking about 1,000 people now dying a day, 230,000 people collectively that is all because many would argue, because the president did not was not straightforward with them from the very beginning, and even more recently, the fact of the matter is he says were rounding the corner when his own scientists and International Health official it is say were not i think when people examine their own Economic Situation is through the lens of the coronavirus. I dont know that thats going to be a positive outcome for the president. Anthony, what does this mean for the senate race . Theres big focus on the senate with polls also giving democrats a strong chance to win control, looking at the 538, a 76 chance of winning do you think these same factors that are driving the perceived success of joe biden also apply to the senate race i do. Im a veteran of capitol hill. I worked in the Treasury Department for the last two democratic administrations i have to say when i look at the senate races, even the house races, i think there is some sense of frustration with politicians in washington. I would argue on both sides, because they have not come together to deliver the extra boost of economic stimulus that Jerome Powell and others say is still needed when i look at these Competitive Senate races in my home state of North Carolina and others, i think some of what were seeing in those states and others is a blowback, if you will. And i think Many Americans are faulting the incumbent party for not being able to deliver for them in ways that matter i will say this in terms of a prediction, if theres a democratic sweep of all of washington, i think we can look for a healthy stimulus in terms of billions of dollars come january. Before we let you go, last one from me anyway, President Trump has been firing on all cylinders for the last week. Hes been out and about, hes been on twitter what feels like every minute or so tweeting something. Can what extent can that actually serve him at this point, given 94 million americans have already voted except were expecting President Trumps supporters to be holding out and come to the polls on tuesday . I am not one to underestimate this president he made a fool of me and others when he pulled out this unexpected victory over hillary clinton. Having said that, he has an incredible hill to climb, particularly, as you said, there just arent as many voters who havent already cast their votes. If ive learned anything from watching donald trump, dont underestimate him. He has a path to get reelected. That path takes him through florida, takes him through pennsylvania while he is only while hes trailing joe biden by double digits in your most recent poll in the battleground states, two of which i just mentioned, bidens lead is within the margin of error. So, there is still a path for this president to get reelected anthony, really appreciate you joining us this morning. Great to hear from you anthony coney, Founding Partner of Corner Office strategies. Cnbc will bring you special coverage across Election Night tune in for analysis on what it means for your money well take a quick look at u. S. Futures before we hand you over to our u. S. Colleagues. The dow looking at nearly 350 point open just want to say, its to wonderful to have joumanna back in action. Her first street signs since maternity leave. Great to be back. Very busy week coming up. You picked a good week to return exactly that is it for our show today. Worldwide exchange is coming up next