Nasdaq up more than three quarters . The industrials also back on track today. Is there any reason for worry apart from the fact. I worry when i dont worry. I think because you change months doesnt really change the na narrative. There are pockets of the economy that are doing well and recovering housing, auto, parts, consumers, manufacturing. Did you see the numbers . The new orders jumped 5 the ism was the best number since november 2018. Manufacturing is recoverying i would argue is in a v recovery you have pocket of the economy that are not doing well. That are struggling. We have a million job in initial claims thats why i think youre going to see a fiscal package. You still have a lot of trouble in things happening with regards to travel and leisure and restaurants and that sort of thing. I do think that you get the fiscal package i dont think the change is in terms of my investments because as you recover, the economy recovers you get through the elections. I think profits recover and we can see next year the better profits. Josh, how about you are you worried by valuations . We saw tony throw up his hands and say i cant predict values are you concerned the run away stocks which have been growth and technology will continue to be the market leaders and the leadership in the market is too narrow the leadership in the market by sector has been improving throughout the entire summer i dont know if its too narrow in terms of where its coming from on an individual stock level its trickier. If you think about the way august ended and we go into september, we had new monthly closing highs in everything from Consumer Staples to health care, to Consumer Discretionary to technology to materials and Communication Services this is like almost every important sector in the market all making new highs the counter to that is there are a handful of very large stocks in each of those sectors doing most of the heavy lifting. We have to take that are new highs in the stock market bullish or bearish . Theyre bullish. If were thinking about weight of evidence approach whaand whai the big picture, the big picture is stocks are going up not just around the world. All the things that stephanie said about the economy are true. The market is eating that information on a minute by minute basis putting it into its price and moving forward thats the way that i would think about what were seeing right now as an investor jim, how do you react to what you just heard is there any sense in your world this is a good party by any stretch of the imagination the party may be getting toward the 11th hour. Those are factually correct statements i do find myself worried i see a vulnerability that can be cured id like it to be cured. That is that if you look at the leadership, not withstanding it had closed somewhat recently its still a pretty stark difference between the haves and the have notes its pretty concentrated the triple qs are up 38 the s p 500 equal weight is down 4 year to date. Thats the average stock experience more or less. It tells you theres a concentration at the top which is also measured if you look at the s p 500, the top five stocks are 26 . Apple alone is 7 of the market cap. Here is why that matters i dont think those leaders need to come down i hope they dont. What would be yell thealthy is some spreading out of the returns to markets the vulnerability of what i speak is if those top five come down for whatever reason, and it could be any reason. It could be fundamental, technical. It could be there are no buyers left to buy those stocks they are liable to bring the market overall down with it. The way to avoid that is see spreading out of the leadership. Thats what im looking for. Lets turn to two of the stocks that come into the conversation one would be tesla the other would be apple wall street continuing to bet on tech they have raise their price target it feels like apple is moving more on fundamentals and tesla on future hopes. Am i right or wrong about that would you put money into these two market leaders youre right about that as we look at thoeds, i thise, this huge run to the upside. You look at the p e level, and say apple is starting to look pricey whats impressive to me is where are they getting their growth from from services as well as wearables. If you add them together they are not terribly far behind in terms of revenue in terms of where they are the iphone itself apple has been growing in the right places i think a lot of us sitting here that own stock already understand that. Theres a lot of different factors playing into this whole thing. I said this for a long period of time he pointed out, he said, everybody thinks its a car company. Its far more than a car company. Thats one piece of it this is a company thats far more of an ecosystem thats being developed and growing out. I think hes been exactly spot on on that its a tech company really, in my opinion, with the hardware side its got the Software Side they have the data they have these various things that doesnt mean pst not expensive. It is. Theres no doubt about it. I think those that are fighting it, are fighting the wrong battle there are ways you can position yourselves in the markets in a much different way the volumes of it after the split, you had tesla trading over one million contracts that used to be entire Trading Floor back in the early 90s in the options world. People are doing some very smart things i think youre seeing people position themselves more in the options. We could see a pull back if and when we do, maybe they get out of those options and back in the stock. Lets turn back to the question of where the money is going. Josh, you made something, made an interesting point earlier that was that you said that over the summer, the market has actually been broadening bank of america says money is moving into higher value stocks such as financial and energy you wouldnt really know it from last month energy didnt do so well you till you ti utilities didnt as well are you sensing a move into value etfs and value stocks as rule what does that tell you . Money is moving into the growthier names within the different Industry Groups and probably we need to throw out this value versus growth conversation its over. Its only one winner regardless of industry, they want to own the names ta ahat a growing. We can say most of the companies in that index qualify as Value Companies because they have depressed multiples. They are out of favor. Low price to book. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Thats honestly, that is not made anyone money in more than ten years. What has made people money is saying im going to own financials which ones have the best Growth Prospects and which one consistently execute and which ones dont if you overyent that way, you have some returns to show for yourself that is what invetsstors who ar focused on have done a good job with you dont have to classify things like, all right, financials or value and tech is growth there are no growth tech companies. Ibm is 115 billion market cap its been that way for ten years. Zoom just became 130 billion market cap this morning. Zoom has been in business for ten years. Ibm has been in business for 110 years. Lets throw out the definitions growth, value. Lets say what areas of the market are working what stocks are worth owning if youve done that, youve not wasted a ton of time on the things that arent paying you at all. To you agree with joshs point that financials may be value stocks but you want to go with the Growth Drivers within that category . I didnt express that well but you get my point i get your point. Ping you can own a combination i dont think value is dead. I dont agree with that. Its also whatever it is statistically its dead statistically its dead. Warren buffet think that amazon was a value stock thats a value stock no way i will look at every stock just quantitative speaking. Is it an absolute value is it a relative value i dont think that value is dead at all i think you can own growth and value but i would say i dont want to own value per se i want to own cyclicals per se the reason i want to own cyclicals is because i made the case before that the economy is actually recovering and its recovering faster than people think. You have a ton of money supply in the system. That is going to be a nice tail wind youll continue to see a recovery in the economy and then in profits and you want to have stocks that are exposed to the economy. At the same time, i own these other names, these growth names, some of these faang names. I dont own zoom and tesla i cant get my arms around them. I do own apple and i do own am s amazon and google and alphabet and sales force. Com. I think you can own combination. Its a stock pickers market. Thats what i do sometimes i can find some real values sometimes i want to go with the momentum a quick reminder. Then im going to bring jim into the conversation im not saying value is dead like you shouldnt buy undervalued stocks im saying over the last five years, the s p 500 is up 100 and value is up 50 . Youve gotten killed in any scenario where you are selecting for cheap stocks versus stocks with the Earnings Growth absolutely killed. You cant. It doesnt exist thats not the same thing as saying you should only buy expensive stocks im just pointing out thats the only thing that is beaten the market and worked over the last five years will that change at some point im sure it will do i know when no i dont statistically, its undeniable that value has so substantially underperfo underperformed both growth and core s p 500 approach. Theres not even a contest anymore. You cant see it on a performance chart. There are value stocks, josh, in a growth industry you can find bargains and value in every single sector it doesnt mean you want to be over your skis in growth we agree. Let me phrase it differently. The way i look at it, when you decide today what stock youll buy, youll have to ask whats priced in and whats not am i baying 6. 5 of apple in that portfolio with it up 50 in a month. The answer is no not because i think its poised for a crash but because i think a lot of good news is priced into it. Other allocations within the portfolio that i have to fill out are much easier to fill out. Since were talk about the financials, thats a sector. It has a place in the portfolio. I have some growth i have some value. Its much easier for me to say theres no good news priced into financials it makes the decision of where to invest easier i want to make this clear. Im talking about investment not speculation, not trading, not momentum im talk about long term multiyear investment within growth, look for where the value is in joshs case, he says within value, look for where the growth is i see them as the ob verse of a coin i dont know whether that sums it up clearly for you guys but whatever lets pivot a bit and put our money where our mouths have been and find out not what you would bought or sold but wa youve been watching or contemplating or thinking about doing in your portfolios whats on your buy list or your sell list . Why dont we start with you jim on visa. Its one of these High Quality Growth Companies i dont think its valuation is out of reach the question is why not buy it today. Theres still a lot of wrangling left to do in congress over the next phase of the stimulus act consumption is dependent upon income replacement for the federal government for 15 Million People nemployed as the wrangling goes on, i expect to have an opportunity around 200 to pick up visa hopefully i can fund that with shares of visa i looked at disney and said it will take a while for the streaming business even though its growing rapidly to make money. The theme parks and the studios are coming back but not that fast if you look at 2022 earnings and do a sum of the parts analysis, i get to 143 as a sales target not far away hopefully i can get those two activities coincident with one another. Stephanie, youre looking to cut one stock and adding to another. Tell us about it home depot. It kind of breaks my heart i think theyre doing a good job and the Management Team is doing a good job the stock is up 30 year to date it only yields 2 . Its trading at 26 times forward earnings what i think is happening is those earnings are getting peakish because housing has recovered so much. Im not sure how much more upside i think housing will remain strong its not up year to date the other one im looking at that seems to be disliked is mcdonalds its only up 8 on the year. On the flip side to home depot, i think its at peak theyre doing what they can do i think that youll slowly see an improvement i want to wait for the stock to pull back a little bit or just watch it for the time being. This is one thats definitely on my radar pete, i cant tell whether these are stocks you like or products you want to buy both. Tell us about polaris and malibu boats these names have skyrocketed. What they have seen in terms of sales is extraordinary theres no doubt about that. Ive been in these names ive not been in malibu boats. I missed that one. I caught the other two now im looking for the opportunity. I would love to see the opportunity rise with some selling out of either of those names. I think the opportunity is there. Those are names im waiting for the opportunity if we get a sell off. If we see anything like a 10 move to the downside or something close to it, i think these names will be a long on that side of it. I still look at their earnings Going Forward and what their exposure is. I love the products. I love the companies i think they trade inexpensively and i think it will be an opportunity still. Well watch for a pull back in those names one of the sub texts of our conversation today has been whether the economys functioning justifies the stock markets high levels. I listen to the conversation and i dont want to insult everybody on the panel but i worry they are riding a wave of liquidity and looking down for support in the economy and sort of grasping at straws. I see a very different world out there than the ones they see i get theres something of a manufacturing rebound going on looks like the data is helped by reopening of manufacturing plants and thats something that is expected to fade. Youre expecting a 9. 9 unemployment rate. Its double the peak of the last recession. You did have the ism come out today. The employment numbers showed a contraction again. You have a lot of kpacompanies t are doing well doing so by laying off people. I worry whats powering the stock market is more liquidity than fundamentals. If you look at the one piece of data that we have, that were looking at for the jobs number, the cronos time shift company, up just 0. 3 if you wouldnt mind going to that last chart that i have there, i want talk about that. They did a very good job of forecasting the last three by the jobs numbers now its looking for 1. 2 million. This is painfully slow processing in bringing the economy back the chart shows you the states with high unemployment claims jpmorgan is finding less spending growth than states with lower unemployment and that is showing the stimulus has run off and beginning to have an effect on the economy im a little more guarded in terms of the gaining my sense of optimism from the heights of the market t the market seems to be riding wave of liquidity thats been put out there by the federal reserve. The economy isnt as healthy as we would like to think it is have i got you right yeah. Let me make a quick separation between the momentum you would have sold everything and gone to the hills if i told you a Million People were filing for unemployment claims. Thats what happened last week 15 Million People remain unemployed some of those are who horrendous let me turn to you josh to get your reaction to what steve has said when you look at towns that ive been in, you see an awful lot of for rent signs you see an awful lot of Space Available signs. These are Small Businesses that packed up and left they are not just in the hospitality trade add all. That means workers are not getting paychecks. It meeans evictions will ramp up as we move into the fall that cant be good maybe the Big Tech Companies are doing just fine. Theres a lot of stuff underneath those that seem in distress, josh this is the worst part of the pandemic r era that were livin through. This is the worst part, which is that we report how many people are jobless but the reality is, the people who are hardest hit, the professions and the jobs that are hardest hit are the ones that really have the least consequence for fortune 500 companies and the types of pr s products and services they sell. Bingo you look at the numbers people working for low income wages in careers or professions that were already precarious leading up to this people who were already struggling to make ends meet, thats who got hit we are not seeing this wave of white collar pink sleeps thats what separates this from the previous recession i spent the last week up in maine. We talked about travel and leisure being hard hit you charter a fishing boat you say, you busy. He goes i have never been this busy i have to buy a second boat. You do a bike tour of portland, maine. He says im sold out the entire summer i have to hire more guys to give bike tours how is that consistent with what the airlines is saying its not its a very nuanced situation. Its probably the only recession in the history of america that coincided with the housing boom. If you look at the aggregate numbers, makes no sense. How can you lose millions of jobs and have home prices go up 30 a month later. Its important we dont paint it with two broad a number. The numbers are horrific for Small Businesses closing and people losing jobs, those are not high paying jobs that have been lost and not Small Businesses that were very important to larger businesses who cater to them. For as long as that remains the case, the only thing savoring these people will be consistent, fiscal stimulus. We must rescue these people. Facebook, google, apple, they are marching on as nothing has happened its parade of Corporate Cash flows literally trampling on people who dont seem to matter anymore. I hate thats the case thats why we have to look a t this in a nuanced way. May i add to this sure. Theres so parts of the economy that are feeling deep effects that have not shown up in the economic or profit statistics specifically, im talking about municipalities which have in large cases been decimated whether its tax revenue, whether its fair box revenue these are major employees that have kept their employees on that also spend on capex that needs support what will be in trouble is commercial real estate were talking about the benefits of work from home whether we see it in zoom or amazon or apple. Ultimately and this is years down the line but ultimately leases come due for renewal. Theres no way in the current environment they will be reknewreknew renewed at the same rate josh, i spent the summer in new york and the people out there, i couldnt rent a boat. It was booked. It was nothing to take the the bicycle store, they had no inventory. It was not a message that the economy is healthy but the people on their vacations were staying closer to home they werent going out of state. If they went out of state then they would have to come back and quarantine for a good long time. I think youre right those areas have not fallen off. Theres a lot of stuffgoing on but its choices steve, you know this as a long Term Investor you mentioned liquidity. You know that you dont fight fed. Theres a reason people say that because its a huge tail wind. The amount of liquidity in the system both monetary and fiscal is 44 of u. S. Gdp thats a huge, huge number thats something not to fight. There are pockets of the economy that are not doing well. I mentioned it at the start of the hoshow its an uneven economy fair enough youre all invited on my bike it boat. Its a fishing machine its tree. People need to be very aware of what they are investing in the concern i have, the long term concern when i look at the Public Companies is what they are doing to remain profitable and meet the High Expectations of the very fine people on this panel as investors is what they are doing ultimately going to erode the economy in terms of job cuts and capex cut backs thats something down the road that i have concern about. If its eyes wide open, everybody have a great time. All right thanks very much to the panel. I said that i was going to go for the longest a block in halftime history we have just done that, ladies and gentlemen. 32 minutes of meat and potatoes right there. Were going to give you more check out shares of zoom on the back of its blow out earnings. Up 40 now the stock is up almost 600 this year can it go higher from here well debate that one. You watch or listen us to live on the go, on the app. Halftime, whats left of it, is back after this. Welcome back lets get some headlines with sue. Hello, everybody. Here is whats happening at this hour in new york, the mayor and the education unions have struck deal to delay the start of inperson classes by 11 days to allow more time for safety preparations that move with a potential strike over the issue. You can go to cnbc. Com for more opinion. In israel, classes begin today with an estimated 2. 4 Million Students returning to School Across europe, millions more are heading back to the classroom. Here at home in portland, oregon demonstrators held the 95th con sec tifr night of protest repeating calls for mayor to resign in the wake of dillkillif george floyd in washington, the white house is reopening its doors to the public tours will resume september 12th with all visitors over the age of two required to wear face coverings. You are up to date thats the news update back to you. Thank you very much the stock almost 40 higher today as you see it adding 125 a share. Check out this staggering stat zoom has a market value of about 130 billion compared with just 19 billion at the start of the year its bigger now than ibm and amd. Josh, you own it zoom is one of those companies where we talked about value versus growth. Imagine how many people looked at this when it was 20 times sale and dismissed it. It goes from 70, 75ish to 400 and change and it turns out that investors were correctliest mating the Growth Potential of a situation where one company practically single handedly saves the countrys economy. Thats the story with zoom whether its School Districts or corporations all of the embedded expectations that were in that high price to sales r s ratio are coming tru. The Second Quarter was explosive. They have a thousands corporate customers who pay them they have 370,000 corporate customers with more than 10 employees. Most of the kids going back to school are doing some version of hybrid a lot of that is happening either google classroom or zoom. Zoom is now a verb its a sonoun its part of the lexicon im in the stock i took my original cost out of it its all houses money thats the only one i can get my mind around holding something with this high of a beta and this much risk i will not sell it i expect volatility Going Forward in both directions im perfectly fine with it because i think zoom is here to stay its amazing how zoom has become a verb. It was a stock and a company that very few of us heard of a year ago they out flanked over lard incumbent Companies Like microsoft, like google that had similar products out there but they were the ones to do it. We take that as an endorsement and a hold from you as what you got in that stock. Lets bring in rahel with a number of calls out in the food space. I hope you are hungry i have quite the line up for you. Raymond james is downgrading brinker international. The stock is up about 5 from a new 52week high they are also downgrading Darden Restaurants who out perform from strong buy but raising the price target this is one of their top quality long picks but they feel in the near term olive garden will continue to lag the industry they know its improving and they have solid performance. Bloomin getting an upgrade from buy to hold. Credit sweets is initiating coverage with utz brands analysts think significant cost saving opportunities will be reinvested to groodriver growth margins. That grew to 11 in the first half of the year as many of us stay home an snack more. Tyler, are you hungry yet in. Im starving. See you in about an hour pete is seeing some unusual activity in the Options Market his latest trades are next lets get a trade on the s p sector heat map. There you see it half are up, halardof e wn halftime is back right after this pnc bank believes that if you can get a pair of goggles that helps you master your backhand. Then you should be able to get a bank account that helps you master your budget. Virtual wallet® for Digital Banking from pnc. Its time to get more from your bank. [ engines revving ] its amazing to see them in the wild like th shhh. For those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor have surged nearly 60 over the past three months and bullish options traders are jumping into the name. Pete, what are you seeing there . Its pretty interesting because the fact if you go back to may, its a 50dollar stock you go into july its in the 60s and now its been trading in august today they are starting to reach out. Very short term. These will expire friday they are buying the september 4 expiring 83 calls. They bought 5,000 of those for approximately 50 cents the stock at the time trading just under 81. Its a very short term trade you have to be very aware of that its going to work or not. Well see. I got another one thats short term netflix. Netflix is another interesting one. They have continued to buy, buy, buy, buy yesterday they were buying the 550 strike the stock was trading just un r underneath that level. They were buying them for 450, up to 750. They do expire friday. This is very short term. Almost like everything we have been seeing recently very short term. Walmart and amazon hitting new l meigalti hhs how to play these two names from here well be back in two minutes some see a Grilled Cheese sandwich and ask, why . I see a new kitchen with a grill and ask, why not . I really need to start adding less to cart and more to savings. Sitting on this couch so long made me want to make some changes. Starting with this couch. Yeah, i need a house with a different view. And this is the bank that will help you do it all. Because at u. S. Bank, our people are dedicated to turning your new inspiration into your next pursuit. To turning your new inspiration if i could, baby id how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Walmart and amazon hitting new highs. Walmart unveiling walmart plus in august, when the stock was starts out at about 131, they started buying calls and they have been rolling and rolling. Today they are rolling again i mingsentioned that earlier. Stock was about 145 at the time. This happened an hour or two ago. Aggressive buying. 12,000 of those calls trading. Positioning once again this is not an investment. I think its a little bit frothy that doesnt mean the stock cant explode and get up through 150. How long do you expect it to be in this position in. Friday. I wont be in it past friday like what we see out of walmart. We know numbers like especially versus target. They are outstanding i cistill think the multiple is too high steph, you own amazon and have perspective on walmarts move. Tell us what it is retail ecommerce is a 3. 5 trillion total Addressable Market at the end of last year its growing to 6. 5 trillion in the next two years i think the playground is big enough for the both of us. I think thats is why amazon has done so well they are the leader. As soon as i saw that walmart news, i worried more about costco because 75 of their revenue is Membership Base i kind of think its a different clientele. Target is on an island on their own. Its digital thank you we have more trades ahead on halftime take a look at the stocks hitsing all time highs today flrks nike, deere. Were back in two minutes. Machin we made usaa insurance for veterans like liz and mike. When their growing family meant growing expenses, our agents helped make saving on insurance easy usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa i keep working my way back to you, babe with a burning love inside yeah im working my way back to you, babe and the happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. At morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. We see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. We see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. Today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. We are morgan stanley. Into strategies for the road ahead. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Time now for futures outlook. Platinum features are still in the red for the year lets bring in brian belski. Brian, tell me about platinum. Platinum got all of its futures for march. Gold and silver have broken out, so i like to look at futuristic gold to sell rallies for platinum they have a replacement of 970 if it breaks below 900, we could see another 50 going as there is a good trend line in march lows that come in right around 900. So bill is fading the trend line brian, what would you do platinum has really capped well and correlated to value i think all of that is tied. As our economy starts to open up, weve seen large value rise, weve seen platinum rise i think that trend continues if you really believe we get to a point where were fully open again, then platinum probably goes higher here, but until that happens, youre going to continue to see the lag despite a weak u. S. Dollar obviously giving headwinds to all the metals here. There is some tailwind behind it, but there is a reason why platinum has lagged, as bill has mentioned, and thats probably more tied to the economy than some of the other metals like gold and silver. Brian, bill, thank you so much we appreciate your thoughts today. Final trades ahead on the halftime report. Who is usaa made for . Its made for him a veteran who honorably served and its made for her shes serving now we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids become a member. Get an insurance quote today. This piece is talking to me. Yeah . So what do you see . I see an unbelievable opportunity. I see bestinclass platforms and education. I see awardwinning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. And i see it with zero commissions on online trades. I like what youre seeing. Its beautiful, isnt it . Yeah. Td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Jp morgan is out for its best ideas for the trade month, adding Thermo Fisher on its list jim, you own it. This must be good news to you. Ive owned it for about two months i think its a very good stock ilts in the retail and Laboratory Equipment space, so more medical testing, more drug discovery, which if anyone thinks those are not growth industries, i dont know what to say to you they are price sbud thd into that is a po a growth industry of 2 thats cheap for a company thats growing like this, well run, they make acquisitions like this from time to time good company fantastic lets get some final trades in because im drunk with power i get to choose who goes first, and it will be josh today. I just want to mention starbucks having another good day. The stocks been going up since they reported earnings its about to go positive on year its only down 1 year to date, and i think that will flip, challenge the old highs between 90 and 100 im long i think its going to work thanks so much for starbucks pete, you go next. All right, im going to give you camping world. Our good friend Marcus Lamonis ever since the stock price fell from 2 back down to 33, he started buying he has bought every day since august 10th another chunk of stock. Whenever i see owners buying, it tells me he thinks the stock is too cheap and hes been buying every day. Under armour reporting good numbers. I think nice has a good setup under their print. Jim qcom, a leader below 1. That does it for us at halftime. Bill griffeth is on the exchange right now. Yes, im Bill Griffeth in for kelly evans today. Evictions beginning and a stalled stimulus plan. Should investors prepare for a rocky month of september we have both sides of that story coming up. Plus our out of stock segment. Deck material as more homeowners are looking to spruce up
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.