milestone. and goldman sachs top tech analyst heather belin breaks down the direction of the company and what it is coming up and check out the mystery chart. pay attention everybody tim. >> i'm in. >> this stock is up more than 10% in two days. we're dishing up the gos what this red clue. >> that's a clue. >> maybe. >> all that ahead. but we again with three big movers this afternoon. our team of course here to break it down for you. josh lipton standing by on 3%. seema modi digging in on trip adviser but we have the hours at mgm. contessa brewer with numbers and a big executive departure. contessa. >> big news from mgm chairman and ceo jim mirren leaving. he has been at the helm since 2012 in fact was mentored by the founder kurt kirk yan and will remain until a successor is found. this comes at a time fraught with uncertainty for the company. the casinos are closed in macao because of coronavirus far east visitors aren't playing bakara in las vegas. leading to 18% drop in table games. the headwinds caused the company to withdraw full-year guidance it's expending massive effort, energy and dollars to secure a bamg license for a new resort. the springfield massachusetts location is struggling and there was a note questions g gm credit and ability to sustain long-term coronavirus disruption and then activist investors keith vester named to the board last year agitating for change here $300 million in big cost cutting initiatives. selling premier properties like the bellagio and mgm grand on the strip. this is the company in the midst of a call i'll bring you back any headlines i find. >> please do thank you. lets talk about it guys. it's not a segment we talk about much but tim an odd departure to sense yeah the stock up 18% over six months not as good as the market. its outperformed las vegas sands. not like the company is tanking. >> as it should. certainly with the focused on macao. mgm reminding audience 30% of the revenues come from china whereas wynn is 75%. different profile on risk. as talked about, the fact that mgm is doing everything to improve the balance sheet makes it more defensive. the sale of the ground, sold the property i think at a 15 757 times multiplen ebidta, very attractive. i think getting them down to the one times leverage td a lot of the stocks breaking out before we got to coronavirus appear and those spos exposed i like casinos. >> wynn resort up 8.5 peppers in a year mgm up twice that. again, it's not like it's a horrible underperformer. >> no, there is one thing in the release today that was interesting. the tender offer that mgm announce ds, 1.25 billion in a dutch tender you can -- somewhere between 29 and 34 basically giving you a floor or some portion of the company, even while saying we have no idea what the outlook is on coronavirus. a that's interesting at a time of uncertainty they must think it's undervalued if they are stepping up in a big way. >> scott hosted the show a couple weeks ago not the peak necessarily of coronavirus but obviously we were talking about it. and las vegas sands was vassel eighting around the 65 level we talked about that being the level for the entry point, a previous high back over the summer scott questioned us correctly why would you step in here tp. to tim's point because a lot of the names are bludgeoned on the back of it lvs was breaking up to the upside after this. and now at 71 here is takes out the recent high of 75. and it's cheaper than mgm at 19 times. where at owe as mgm is a premium in the space at 22.5 i'm not saying ditch mgm but stay long lvs. >> hopefully sooner than later coronavirus will be a footnote in history lets hope sooner than later. the one thing we learned about the skaurm whether the american consumer or somebody in macao where wherever else is a casino, if they want to go they're going. and come back quickly. >> and the consumer is healthy and the consumer -- we can talk all we want about the household debts and the sense activities to interest rates. but if you think about casinos after the financial crisis into 2009 they hadn't repaired balance sheet that was not a place to buy casinos. this is a hiatus as you point out, certainly an awful february gross glamg revenues in january down 11.3% significantly worse for those exposed to macao this is not something that doesn't correct. into the second quarter assuming we get through -- maybe being insensitive to the health issues out there. but we have seen this before in asian assets coming through the sars virus. >> i would assume, tim you would say -- i don't want to throw anything on the coverage coming up but in a couple weeks when the starting season is out you got to write off the first quarter. >> for sure. >> basically ignore mgm after hours lows down 4.5% the selling continues in that stock. we'll get more on that with contessa in a bet. but lets turn to cisco system down after reporting earnings. lets get the numbers and the reason why the stock is off 3% with josh lipton josh. >> so brian, i checked with alex henderson at needham covering the name i wanted his take on the print his point was given weak conditions in europe, exposure to apac. he thought it was potentially going to be a lot worse. in his opinion here the guidance was fine, the securities segment looked good. did call out q2 product orders that could explain the weakness in the after hours a decent print how he puts it. ceo chuck robins on the call right now talking to analysts. he did call out the secular growth drivers he think will continue to benefit cisco in the kwurs ahead, meaning 5g, the move to the cloud. he did say though talking about his commerce, the trends and themes in the quarter that we are seeing some pausing from customers. they are still planning on moving forward, he tells analysts but just a bit more cautious right now given the macroenvironment he also talked about the coronavirus. we'll see how that plays out brian wab, back to you. >> thank you, josh last night on the program dan you said cisco systems while the company itself may not be that big of of a deal macro, that you were really interested in the numbers, they were important because it was the first major tech company that had a little bit of exposure to corona. >> the quarter ending at the end of january the point you just said is q1 sort of a mulligan for a lot of companies reporteding? why was this important we know the dollar strengthened the last few months. cisco has 40% of sales outside the u.s. so exposed to places where the dollar can hurtpeople them the trade tariffs with china and then the virus last quarter the ceo said it's an uncertain time. i think he is continuing that thought process. but it doesn't seem worse than three months ago in november the stock ran from 46 to 50. it's giving some of that back. the options marketimplied a 5% move either direction. these are important to remember. in august when they reported november reporting, guided down. here they are guiding for the first current in line. but it's important to remember they expect eales down 3.5% at the midpoint that's not great and that's not in this market you won't get rewarded for that. this is a stock 15 times well below the s&p at 19 times. below the megacap tech peers i don't see why you step in and buy this given uncertainty. >> seems cheap cheap at 15 times but no eps growth and the guide wasn't great the quarter was fine the guide wasn't great to dan's point we went from 43.5, 444 mid-december to current levels this is where we topped out back in october if you go back and look i think this retests giften a benign tape which we haven't seen benign tape re-tests to december lows in my opinion. >> i've been constructive on cisco also i think the valuation is interesting. and i can't change that today. i was reading a cowan report where they highlighted a interview with chuck robins from davos. he says he doesn't see change in demand not getting better the expectations were out there this wasn't extraordinary. and the look to the snap shot where sbrmz is right now it's not getting better their service provider kind of routing business is something you want to see pick up but it wasn't something a stalwart. i think cisco's exposure to software and fs services around security are why you get margin improvement in this company. and i think it's attractive. >> with the growth of traffic on the internet they benefit from video compression, the more videos you watch the better it is network traffic is growing but looking at the names in the space juniper, sienna, none of them are doing well, tim it's not like this -- the internet is booming but the companies that make the guts, the skeleton aren't. >> again, i think there is different places where enterprise spending has been fine and haven't seen a hiccup you have seen it in hardware there was also some seasonality in terms of where inventories were it's been a tough place to invest i think those names you mentioned were the ones people sold first on trade war. the coronavirus is a dynamic that's hurting them more i think it was more of a trade war issue for those names. >> yes, cisco systems. nobody around the table. >> i am -- i'm -- >> yeah. >> you're a buyish but in the screaming. >> here is the other thing i'll take the other side also tlts no reason to buy it unless you can put your finger on the calendar and tell you that the corona thing out of the way and global growth skrermts soon there may be a backlog i think robins sounds more constructive to your point about hardware down in the quarter high single digits percent year over year. software security up symptoms but smaller business you may get the margin fix this is revenues are not growing at this company i don't know why you reward for much more than it's trading at 15 times. >> you don't have to reward. i can own cisco when megacap tech stocks are seeing liquidity surge. that's not a reason to boy any company except the valuation is defendable it's tough to bang the table where the top line declines 4% the marketis waiting to see it transformed but right now you are not overpaying if you buy the weakness- if the weakness is this guyedens was overly conservative i'm not sure what you've been looking at. and the guidance wasn't going to be better. >> here is what happens with case cisco in the next year. they have to over pay for security assets. 28 billion in cash 20 billion in debt the company made a lot of significant acquisitions over the years. and that's what they have to do. if they get that security revenue component growing faster than the decline and the hardware they have to make more acquisitions where valuations are right now is a it a great time to buy the high growth businesses i don't know so they're going to be a buyer is what i'm saying. >> i don't think cisco has to chase anything here. it's still a company that you say with the carbon the balance sheet and positioning of the business, the fact. >> we talked about ginny rometty. >> security is trading at different multiples on the stair side. >> how long can you underperform the broad market in the biggest bull market that existed we think chuck robin is an amazing ceo. >> ibm is doing the same thing i'm not saying -- we're al saying the same thing the kpt has underperformed i don't think buying it at 15 times is overpaying. >> the debate was almost ackman iconish. >> we i had nothing to add we may need an online poll on cisco. lets round it out with trip adviser. the stock popping on results seema modi has the details. >> hey, brian, trip adviser is cost cutting measures paying off. earnings came in better than expected led by experiences in dine he were, double digits sales growth up 16% in the fourth quarter now the question is can they grow total revenue which in the last three months fell 3%. led by hotels and media divisions. that's one of the reasons the stock underperformed the peers down 40% in last 12 months key question how does it increase the market share in tourists and restaurants when tourists are going to social media getting recommendations and coronavirus hitting tourism and what steps is it taking to fend off competition from goog the ceo stephen coffer hand a critic of google and search practice three weeks ago i reported that trip adviser cut 5% of the workforce. right now the stock is popping by 8% in extended trade. the stock traded at analo 8-year low to put the move in perspective. back to you. >> sema, thank you very much a little bit of the move after hours. probably some short covering and this is a stock wiping out half the value. the ceo critical of google saying it's a thing eating the industry but you have a company that i don't know, guy adami, if people care where they go for advise. you put something in the search engine it spits up. trip adviser is fighting a big kpet they are alphabet. >> to your point -- it was a $90 stock four years ago the only thing you have going for it is two things the short interest goes to 13% maybe people kor on the back of that the fact that 29.5ish was the low we put in smerp of 2017. maybe it's something to trade against. but short of that no compelling reason to be here. the risk reward sets you decent on the long side but this is not a name you have to be in for any compelling reason. >> i think the bar was low here, right? expectations were low. the macroissue is a significant one. i wonder sort of in the short term, the micro --s in a decent report, right? revenue is a beat. that's good. not giant but the outlook deeson maybe with expectations so low, the valuation isn't high, clearly there is major headwind. but might be worth for a tried trade. >> if you like the space i would look at exceedia this is expected to have high to mid-single digits eps growth and sales growth and tradeding 18 times. obviously i think it's a more defensible model nan the trip adviser. i don't -- i kind of don't see anything. >> it's a tough place to invest we know the head ntsdso nds. bookings to me is the only one to own they have a more constructive free cash flow at 7 or % free cash know yield. it's a more defendable valuation. about 18 times i think bookings is the one. >> on deck, stocks overall are surging but so are valuations. we've got one stat for you that might make you rethink the monster rally. we're up for a wild ride, the once unstoppable stock stuck in a rut. what happens with roku tomorrow. >> catch kr cnbc any time listen live on the go on the cnbc app download it to do that dleed it now and we're back after this woman: what does the word "partner" really mean? who is with me for the long-term. who understands i'm dealing with lives, not only livelihoods. that in order to help people, i need more than products, i need quality support and insights. can i find someone who partners with me to achieve people's long-term success? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. it's a masterstroke of heartache and redemption. the lexus nx. modern utility for modern obstacles. lease the 2020 nx 300 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. high protein low sugar tastes great! high protein low sugar so good! high protein low sugar mmmm, birthday cake! and try pure protein delicious protein shakes [ fast-paced drumming ] very appropriate animation well back, everybody the market surging today the dow up 275 the nasdaq 100 up is li 1% exactly today. by the way, the nasdaq 100, guy adami. >> yes, sir. >> up 10% this year. on pace for 100% gain this year. bitcoin is up. the u.s. dollar is up. green lights all around? or is there any way -- there is no way -- is there, this pace come on. >> in a vacuum, no but i've been saying it a while. it is going up in my face. when jerome powell we'll do whatever we need to to stay off or fight off recession that's giving ammunition and add gasoline on this fire. but, again, despite the fact we had this brief selloff there are 18 to 20 different metrics or valuations that are flashing red. can you choose to ignore them. by the way correctly over the last couple months or you could say, you know, maybe this thing has gotten to the level of absurdity. the market seems to go up a% every day. and the selloffs are gobbled up by the passive investing which is in and of itself a very dangerous thing my opinion. >> we spend a lot of time talking about megacap tech we went through maga last night which dan pointed out a long time the weighting the apple, microsoft and are 33% of the nasdaq 100 throw in gogel up 38%. that's the story i think the q.e. four thrown on us is the reason this is money flowing in the market and these are the stocks getting it. >> i just -- i'm long, always long that wasn't a good call. it's just that's what i always do i'm nervous -- i don't understand the whole premise in that the- you know the fed has your back and we don't want good economic data because the fed will no longer have your back. we're better off with weak or middling economic data that doesn't make sense to me for lo decade. >> well i think earnings improved dramatically. but the rah rp slowly. the pe is higher preponderates lowe >> it's a very good point. buy d basically use balance sheet mechanics, which i think are a big part of this they've been a big bart of back stop for equities during difficult times. >> the stock market. >> i'm going off on a tangent here we glow. >> never happens. >> the stock market when i started in this building in 1998 there were about 7500 stocks -- now it's 330 oh stocks buybacks taking more shares out of the market. the millennials are raised to believe throw in money in the 401(k) plan every month. low cost indexing. is there a case to be made that the market just keeps going up, valuations don't matter at all, simply because. >> it's different this time. >> there is more people and more chase chasing a lot small are pool of assets. >> that's the hope right. >> i'm not saying that happens. >> but the savings rate is and interest rates lower i watch the network all day long and hear the laziest arguments. >> thank you. >> i really do i just -- i heard today three times why people can't find a single reason why you want to sell a single maga stock and they give you eight reasons why it's defensive passive that or whatever. >> even last year when the s&p 500 goes up 25% at the top tippy top 7.5% 6.5% sell of i don't have and 5.5% sell i don't have if you think the 3% sell i don't have was it you have another thing coming. >> judas priest. >> okay. and the more things go para-bolic is the worse it's going to be. >> we get december of 18 if everybody hits sell at the same time where all the dishneau dsh the reverse effect of everything on the upside then happens. you flip the switch the other day. i'm not saying it's happening guy adami. what i'm saying -- i'm not calling the market a pontiac aztec. and no disrespect to that. they might bid the aztec above the price because you have five people bidding on one car. >> you are getting a lot of aztec hate mail. >> all three owners getting mad at me. everybody is betting on a shrinking pool of assets. >> scarcity value. it's been the way to look at this for quite some time i don't think -- in my world it can't be that easy to karen's point, the hope that the patrol reserve has our back, not only us about central banks around the world is absolute folly. to what you said passive investing is great on the upside when that turns and it will turn it's not pretty on the downside. it's going. >> you say it will turn. >> it will. >> we saw a preview taste of everybody glamd blamed the fed okay a quarter point shifts is down 18% to the lows why are you confident it will turn. >> why am i so confident it turns. >> that it will turn. >> when i was a young person. >> you look it. >> i i look old. it's a commercial it's not nice to fool with mother nature i think from margarine i'm sure you do. the point is that's what central banks are doing. fooling with something they shouldn't. they are trying to extract a portion of the cycle that's great as long as you can until you can't. look back at '08 and '09 and it's destine >> everyone pull up the nikkei chart went para-bolic in the 80s and lost 80% of the value. >> who is selling? who on the desk is selling now. >> would you have the sony yellow walkman. >> of course i did >> it's interesting you think you can take out this part of the cycle. and japan proved that doesn't happen some of the demographicing against the japanese back then are against us now. >> but you started brian. >> it's a broader conversation i want -- -- you start to wonder with a 10% gain in the nasdaq 100 in five weeks. >> for more on what's driving the markets, the aztec head over to cnbc especially if you are driving. do it later. here is what else we have coming up on fast. oil prices doing something they haven't done in a long time today. rising can crude keep the bid or will there be more pain ahead? and later one of the top tech analysts on wall street. goldman sachs heather belini, she has ideas where to find opportunity in the red hot secretary are. that's coming up when fast returns. legendary terrain in telluride, the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, you've faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. with ship skis, you're just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. with unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. ship skis. your skis. delivered. you look more like a heather.a. do you ever get that? it's nice to finally meet you in person. you're pete nocchio? oh, the pic? that was actually a professional headshot. i'm sure 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(glass breaking) (gasp) ah! oh...! with geico, the savings keep on going. just like this sequel. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. all right. welcome back to "fast money. tune in again tonight to our special report on the coronavirus outbreak and where the world stands right now that's again, 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. all right, now back to markets specifically one that's really impacted by the virus and china coming to a near stand still that's oil after dropping nearly every day year oil a bit higher today on hopes that demand won't fall as much as worst estimates out there. lets focused on a group much companies slammed on the slowdown shippers and tanker stocks all down big this year but trying to turn around a bit this week. are there any of the little talked about group bring in randy gibbons, thanks for joining us >> thank you, sir. >> a lot of these are billion and $2 billion companies a lot of debt out. last year we had you on because the tank ebb rates spiked on persian gulf fears en and the stock whacked they have come back a bit this week are there any you see that were oversold that are worth owns. >> a 60% run on the ten tanker equities now year to date down 30%. they have given it back. and the coronavirus is causing flu-like symptoms for tanker owners and investors rate weakness in january and february chinese new year and exage rated with coronavirus. you have the extension of the new year refinery cutting runs. all the independent teapot refineries in china. when you have the 2 million barrels off line you don't have imports. >> they import 13.5 million barrels a day roughly. second biggest in the world. japan slowed down. importing 100% of oil. why woe china oil ships of oil when they have too much. >> you are seeing the inventory bblding. but they're not running that's why the rates were down 70 petros preponderatesy 100,000 a day six weeks ago. amp the pullback rates are double last year february of 2019 we are in a deeson situation on the equity side they gave back 30% of the run up in the fourth quarter in our oversold. should they have gotten high six weeks ago. should they get in lo? absolutely not they are pricing in six to 12 months of zero earnings is there two or three or four months of reduced earnings absolutely but you are above the cash break even on that front you see a rebound. china will stimulate in may, summer fourth quarter. but rates will be okay. >> balt being freight inindex has been grim death the better part of a year do the stocks reflect that who are have time to catch up so what that's trying to tell us i think. >> especially on the baltic draw it's all-time low valuations all levels bci abthe baltic apex inspect nfrgt how is that possible you see impact on the dry bulkers iron ore, coal, grains slowing into china if people aren't there and working and the mills are shutting down. on the baltic side you see the impact and that's sustainable. there is inventory drawing needs to be inventory building there will be a rebound. but the stocks are pricing in these levels for a sustainable period of time and we don't think the rates stay here. but at some point you get more slow sfeemg reducing the effect of supply. you get scrapping vessels coming off line for that process pushly supply matches demand as demand falls demand can rebound but the reply can't it takes 18 to 24 months to build the vessels. >> you talk about scrapping. with rates where they are and some of the ships have scrubber and the differential appear day rate must be meaningful. do you think we'll see a menningful increase in scrapping to get the supply demand dynamic back. >> on the tanker side probably not on the dry block 4,000 a day is below break even. the last six to 12 the decision was whether to scrub or not. you you are 15 to 20,000 a day more a k size with scrubber pb for the owners with scrubber somebody mentioned on the dry culling. star balk on the tanker side dhs skorp owe tankers outperform the market and goes from below op ex to above cash eastern. >> we have half of the evidence sit tlg going what the heck is a skrup scrubber >> it's basically with imo 2020. >> international maritime organization they change the composite of the fuel they need to use. >> you need to to use cleaner fuel you can either not install the scrubber and buy higher priced higher quality fuel orp install the skrub era small scale refinery on the ship and buy the lower quality fuel scrub it on theed snip and you have compliant fuel. >> the shipping guy by the anchor on his tie. >> official, yes. >> what we're talking about in terms of supply demand dynamics if you think about the 10-year airgt. we had the commodity pity supercycle and the over fly and reaction in shipping it was a disaster three to five year disaster maybe longer this sounds like a short-term interruption in something a huge opportunity, no. >> absolutely hitting the nail on the head. the run up in 2004 to '8 china joins the wto fleet supply small. order books went to 80% of the fleet on the water so the outlook the next two three months coronavirus not sure two or three years very attractive because us don't have the massive supply response. capacity is low. demand will inflect and going to offset any minimal supply growth over the next couple years. >> randy good stuff. buy ratingsen stoerp owe dimon sack ohs tk and euro nav. >> may i interject quick but harvey kytel is a big show and he played a scrubber in pulp fiction. >> mr. wolf. >> well look at you so harvey you are watching come on the show. >> i think it was the wolf. >> sticking with oil, a big under the radar story that's getting attention in the oil world. i know randy probably knows about this shares of whiting petroleum crashing 22% this afternoon. debt y reported the drieler hired advisers to smore options for a capital structure schang something to do with debt. i reached out to whiting if you are watching, get back to me please white something a denver based company heavily indebted a net debt of ebidta to debt ratio. three. put that in average. pioneer resources has net debt to ebidta at 0.4 i'm not picking on names in particular but other names in the space with high debt, high net debt to ebidta ratios that have been whacked by the equity mathematics. mat a door oassist. callon and laredo. this whiting news for whatever you want to call it, whiting people say who cares, the reality is that this is a company that the stock fell 22% in a couple of hours because they got a lot of debt and according to people i talk to today, a lot of the debt not just whiting others being dumped sold at all costs. >> well, there is $300 million in equity. this is a debt story and it's getting back to what's been going on especially in the mid-and upstream markets and what's not sustainable the good news is that these are the stories that i think are certainly should be headlines. but a lot of the companies that we talked about especially the -- the eog and the high -- >> high quality names. >> the blue chip ones are ones run totally different from a cap ex and op ex perspective >> and they are separating eop, pxd and others goldman sachs tech analyst heather bellini about what's appings at fischer and this mystery chart how this company might have been the key to getting one of the biggest deals of the year done that chart is not any of the stocks involved in the deal you know who it is smarty pants. >> no. >> no. >> we'll give you the answer coming up. stick around and tie it all together with a world-class software experience. we ended up creating, as you all know, so much more. peloton is truly a category of one and we're just getting started. now, let's do this. together, we are going further than we ever thought possible. ♪ ♪ don't just plan to retire. plan to live. an annuity helps cover your essential monthly expenses, so you're free to live the life you want. find out how an annuity can give you lifetime income at protectedincome.org othroughout the country for the past twelve years, can give you lifetime income mr. michael bloomberg is here. vo: leadership in action. mayor bloomberg and president obama worked together in the fight for gun safety laws, to improve education, and to develop innovative ways to help teens gain the skills needed to find good jobs. obama: at a time when washington is divided in old ideological battles he shows us what can be achieved when we bring people together to seek pragmatic solutions. bloomberg: i'm mike bloomberg and i approve this message. all right. welcome back there is a look at our cramer cam and love is in the aaron "mad money" tonight zwrim chats with the sig net jeweler ceo of course ahead of valentine's day. everybody going out panic buying for loved ones or people they hope are loved ones. catch the interview with sig net jewel, a hot stock coming up at the top of the hour. but coming up on "fast money," factual basis, the two more billion reason to celebrate. we break it down what it means microsoft, everything heather bellini, the goldman sachs lead software analyst on "fast money. as always back at the nasdaq market site. and we're back after this. do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. all right. welcome back to "fast money. facebook announcing a major milestone today. the company says it has more than 2 billion active uters op what's app lets talk about messaging for facebook and major trends in technology joining us is heather bellini. goldman sachs lead analyst for software and other companies coming from the goldman sachs international technology conference from san francisco. thank you for joining us from your conference. we appreciate that 2 billion users on what's app. that sounds great. except when i use what's app i don't pay for it does it matter to facebook. >> what's app certainly matters to facebook because it's part of the whole facebook collection of applications and it's part of the community and keeps -- keeps you integrated across the different applications that they offer, whether messenger, whether that's the facebook flu app or instagram. i think it does matter and it shows the utility of the platform that they built >> hey, heather switching gears to microsoft you've been an unabashed bull on the name a long time the stock up 17% after a bang up year last year the multiple getting to 15-year highs. what do you tell investors here, just hang on, right? and what is the bull case near-term from here? >> so it's not just a near-term bull case. i think it's a multi-year and a long-term bull case. because if you look at the company, more and more of the revenue is moving to a ee ratable business model subscription office moving to 365 the on premise server products moving to azure. windows and offerings like microsoft 365 getting people to pay on a skrurpgs basis for things like windows. what that means is not just more predictability of revenue stream but means they are getting lower churn rates over time. which equates to more gross profit i think they are becoming utility. and i mean that in a positive sense of enterprise computing. yeah, i think it's -- it's got a long road ahead of it. >> heather, karen let me have you bounce back to facebook a second i think you have a $250 target how do you get there is it earnings expansion is it a multiple change both how do you get to the valuation? >> so we look at it a couple of different ways we look at it on a discounted cash flow basis. we look at it on a -- on a cash flow basis we also look on earnings basis and we look at the stock not just on calendar 20. we look at it from a quarter 5 through quarter 8. again we are looking out more than 12 months it's a 234-month view of the stock. we think you don't need a lot in terms of multiple expansion to get to where the company needs to be to be at our price target. it's more just consistent execution. i mean, there are factors in there, especially related to calendar '21 where we look at -- you have to make assumptions what they do with total expense growth, what happens to overall revenue growth but we think we're conservative in those assumptions we don't think it's a stretch at all as you look out over the next year. >> heather, tim seymour thanks for joining us back to facebook orb still with facebook we talk about the regulatory headwinds every once in a time talk of do you break up facebook? what do you think is as a catalyst and see is that bullish sum of the parts how do you look at that? >> i mean, i'm an anti-trust expert first and foremost i should make sure everyone is aware of that look, i think you have seen some interesting things happen. you saw some news yesterday. out of the federal government where they are going to start looking at past acquisitions and start to subpoena records from past acquisitions that were under say, 90 million in revenue. that's the government looking to see not just for facebook but for all companies subpoenas whether there was per initials behavior if you will that went on and then you've got the question of whether or not this platform should be broken up. you could do a sum of the parts on it. we don't go about valuing this it that way. this is from us talking to anti-trust experts he can kristine bannery from kravath. it's not illegal to have a monopoly it's illegal to do something per initials for that. is it a basis for the government to undo something. first and foremost the thing we learned from talking to experts in the field this is not ha 12-month cycle this is something that's going to evolve over the course of the next five to seven years i think, again we have been living with this in terms of impact on the multiple the last year or two. it's going to continue how we feel about the stock is regardless of that -- and it's just based on is any of this impacting the fundamentals of the company? as of now we would say all signs point to it is not. >> bullish on facebook and microsoft. heather bellini thanks very much. >> what's a synonym for per nitiou zbloochlt i thought that was a greek scholar from 1200 a.d. >> a lot of volume in the microsoft the last couple days it's held up. >> you think it's held up. listen this thing is para-bolic, the largest market cap company in the world and unnatural. it's coming unwound. they like big round numbers whatever you know, i don't know i don't have much to add here. i don't know who is buying this stock. >> maybe -- if goldman sachs is recommending the stock from what i understand any got a good client list. i suspect they might be making calls or bloomberg messages. coming up we reveal the mystery chart. but before we do, we're going to offer you up one last clue but tim says he has no idea. >> i have no idea. >> the chairman started this company out of the back of a truck. in the 1980s like i said we are dishing up the gossip on the company coming up when "fast money" returns stick around everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time. all with millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. it's a different kind of wireless network, designed to save you money. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. and save even more when you say "bring my own phone" into your voice remote. that's simple, easy, awesome. click, call or visit a store today. all right. it now that -- your favorite time of the show he. not the end. the time to reveal the mystery chart. the stock has been on track por the best week in more than a year we said we are dishing on the gos. if you guess the dish network you would right. tradest at the highest level since september. a federal judge approved the t-mobile merger with sprin the ruling sets the stage for dish to enter the wireless wars. anybody around the table stepping up to the plate. >> on a breakout above 42 that's where it stopped in july broke down from. it had a big run i'd rather wait see what it does and wait for the pullback than buy it on a breakout i'd rather buy it on the break out. >> from the wireless wars to media mover. roko reports after the he will and options traders betting it goes higher on results mike khouw with "options action" in san francisco. >> roku is extraordinary really. we saw two timese options market glies a move higher or lower of $20 in the stock considerable considering the $138 closing price if you look at the historical earnings move you understand why it might imply the move. averaged a 20% move over the last 8 quarters when they reported where we saw the activity was purchases much 150 weekly calls. spending just under $6 to buy those. that's a bet it could rice above the strike price by the premium spent. if you look how the stock behaved the course of the last months you can understand why options might be the way to play it it has an wild move lie higher and lower the last 18 months. >> mike khouw thank you very much for more "options action" tune in to the ll sfuhow on a friday. 5:30 p.m final trades are next. >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ ♪ man: can i find an investment firm that has a truly long-term view? it begins by being privately owned. with more than 85 years of experience over multiple market cycles. with portfolio managers who are encouraged to do what's right over what's popular. focused on helping me achieve my investors' unique goals. can i find an investment firm that gets long term the way i do? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. we have a big show, literally come your way tomorrow night. scott minerd the entire time a guest trader tune in to. >> psyched to have scott on the desk great cisco we talked about it i think this is if anything weakness to buy. >> i'm with heather fischer. >> i think it's over done there. >> twitter, brian sufficientlien >> guys thank you very much. >> tune in tomorrow night. scott mine rd with us th my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. we have a serious public health problem on our hands more than 20 million cases, 210,000 hospitalizations now more than 12,000 deaths.