Is betting on a breakout in one big bank for less than a buck. P its time to risk less and make more. The action begins now. We start with the transport. Sitting in correction territory and underperforming the broader markets, trade tensions and fears of a global slowdown weighing on the group. Key players like american airlines, jb hunt, and ups off double digits on twoweek highs. As fedex gears up to report earnings next week, our char master says theres more trouble brewing. He is over to break it down. Carter. It is all things cyclical down today, industrials, materials, financials, and transports semis. Anyway, lets look at the transports, and then, of course, zero in on fedex this is 2007 this is the 09 low, and this is where we are now you have the past decade lets put in some lines and put it in perspective. What we know is we have major selloffs. Obviously in the 09 plunge you get a 61 drop you have a 30 , a 31 , and we endurred a 26 drop this goaround, and we havent made a new high, and thats going to be the issue, the relative performance. Another way to look at it, just how simple it is in terms of trend work, right . It has come down to trend. This one didnt quite get there, and i think ultimately we have the prospects that we will you can also, of course, see that there is a very well defined headandshoulders formation in the transports. Now, relative performance. This is really the issue here is the past ten years, and what we know is effectively relative performance peaked almost five years ago. So, yes, its gone up, but its not delivering alpha never a particularly good thing. If i do this on a shortterm basis, this is just over the past year, take a look again, it is making twoyear relative lows to the s p so up, but twoyear lows what we really have ultimately is a headandshoulders bottom that failed. Its not good. Okay fedex. You have a perfect bottom. Literally thats the christmas throw. Think what equities have done. Equities have surged and so did fedex, but, of course, fedex i back at its christmas low. Now, it has bounced a little bit, and i think thats obvious and elemental, but the question is it really going to carry much further . I think no i will make a bet that this is the beginning of more trouble. Okay. Thanks, carter mike, what is the trade . I think when we look at fedex, i mean, obviously one of the questions we have to ask ourselves fundamentally because were looking at a Company Trading at about ten times earnings, what is the problem here why does the market see so much trouble ahead for fedex . You know, we have really two stories here one is international, integration of tnt and how theyre doing internally the other, of course, is the 800pound gorilla in the room, amazon this is not simply an issue, fedex will point out we were talking about it before, it doesnt represent a big part of their business the question is whether or not they will have a competitor in the form of amazon, and that obviously is very troubling. You combine that with the other headwinds that theyre already facing, and that is the reason it is trading as cheaply, i think, right now as it is. The thing is the options themselves, though, are not that cheap. So looking at earnings next week, the market is implying about a 5. 4 move or so for fedex, above its 3. 8 average. So were going to use a stricture going into earnings we have talked about probably infrequently, but i think it can be a very good trade in some situations where you think that a run and weve had a little run up here. It might come to an end. Specifically i was looking at the july 170, 175 call spread, and i want to said that spread when i looked earlier today, you could collect about 5 with the calls. So net net, you are collecting about 1. 90 of the 5 widespread, nearly 40 of the distance between the strikes the thing is if the stock sits here, you will start collecting some decay it can rise marginally, you can still see some profits obviously if it declines you get to keep all of that money. One other point i would quickly make is if they surprise to the upside lets say they got maybe a 5 pop, call it 8. 5 bucks from here, taking it to about 172. 5, thats the breakeven even if it goes more than that, hits that 175 strike, it isnt going immediately to the full value of the 5. So it is not as if you are simply going to collect nearly 2 and risk 3 it is probably more like an even money bet, but the probability favors you. I think the main point is that mike thinks the options are expensive in the identifiable event, and the flip side is that carters charts point to lower lows and if you really are convicted that theyve missed, which theyve given us a sense that the quarter they just mentioned is not going well and guide down enough, even at 10 earnings, this stock has a 10 downside. Mikes trade gives you a high probability of some success. It does not help you capture what would be maybe a 10 sort of move. This is an options trade for what i think is a pretty interesting technical setup into a fundamental event that makes sense because implied volatility of the price of options is high. Yeah, this is not an effort to go out and try to hit a home run in case they really disappoint this is where we think that there could be at least some immediate ceiling and some weakness, and you are just trying to hit a single here. You know, it is funny, the 10 pe thats always the seduction. I think caterpillar is down almost 230 , down to a high pe of 10 all the way down the value trap . Of course when things go bad, it doesnt mean a thing. Then it gets the downgrade. As it just did. Shipping to staples has been a monthtomonth sector. But as a group helps push the market to alltime highs, jim cramer isnt sure if surging staple sectors is good news. Take a listen. Now, a lot of the stocks that are going up in this particular leg of the market are the ones that are going up are the ones that are about to go into recession the stocks leading the rally are Proctor Gamble and they do not go up when the economy is on fire what do you think of p g . Listen, it was a great discussion by jim in favor this morning. I was watching that and i immediately started looking at Proctor Gamble you know, it is a stock that we know that investors have kind of just i dont know, just run into this thing. You know, its up 10 over the last month alone, but its up 21 on the year. Its up 58 from its 201 2018 52week lows here, and here is a stock thats trading at recordhigh multiples, i mean decadeslong its trading about 26 times trailing, about 23 times forward. You are getting that forward, you know, okay, you want that 2. 65 dividend yield, but you are not getting a heck of a lot of growth. This is a company thats going to grow earnings midSingle Digits, grow sales low Single Digits i think the thing thats interesting lets go to the oneyear chart quickly this thing is on a runaway breakout its a multiyear chart. It was rangebound for a while but since january it has busted out and gone straight up here. I look at the combination of what jim just said we have a weakening economy here, and if we dont have any real resolution to the trade situation the back half of the year wont be great. In that scenario you will have cyclical names continue to go lower, but i dont believe you have stocks like Consumer Staples up like this anticipating whatever theyre anticipating, continue to go higher from here i think a name like proctor up so much in such a short period of time, its kind of damned if you do, damned if you dont. They will report earnings at the end of july. They have not set the date yet i think it is an interesting situation. Implied volatility, unlike mikes trade in fedex, is really low. It is about 13. 5 right here, looking out one month or so. Thats making directional long premium trades, kind of attractive to me in a market i think has the potential to be volatile i want to look out to august expiration and buy a put spread and try to capture a move towards the breakout level in the high 90s so today when the stock was trading at about 112. 25, you could buy the august 197 half put spread, breaks down to 108 you could make up to 10. 50, down to 97. 5 your match risk is that 2 bucks. To me i like the risk reward i have two months to earn this out. I have an event in the name particularly, but i think i have the potential to grab broad market volatility here i like the risk reward risking two to possibly make 10. 5 if the stock is down in the neck 2 1 2 months do you like the trade i do like the trade considering what youre spend g spending, its less than 2 of the current stock price, and the valuation, you said that we are basically at 20year highs in terms of valuation. Yes. And it is off the charts for the last ten i mean if you take a look at this, it is just incredible. This is not a growth story, and yet it is priced as if it is that doesnt really make any sense to me. You know, one can only speculate that this is essentially a combination of two elements related to low rates you know, one of them is a chase for yield. The other arguably could be that, you know, they have a lot of maturities that will be rolling off on their fixed income side. Their debt side, maybe people think, oh, low rates, they get to refinance a big portion of their Balance Sheet at low rates. Guess what, people low rates is not a good story even in terms of keeping up in growth. The thing is this phenomenon is not specific to Consumer Staples, right. Right. In every sector rails have done the best because theyre defensive, right Simon Properties is the biggest one of all its terrible. Whats the most defensive . American towers, surging you see it even in certain utilities. But here is the thing. I dont see any difference between this chart which i agree short it, hershey, mondyo could have picked any of those, church and dwight, but Proctor Gamble is the biggest. Is that why you picked it . I think it is the biggest, the largest component in the xlp that is the staples ltf. If there are stock specific issues in this when they report next month, it will be down to 100 like that. Some of the crowds are hedging or exiting some of the positions you talked about, the people that own these things have been pairing back positions and hedging then. Check out our website optionsaction. Cnbc. Com heres whats coming up next maybe you should try a Different Bank a big bank. Great idea. Lucky for you, mike khouw has a Big Bank Stock he is betting on for a big breakout plus, calling all options anxiouses fans reach into your pocket, grab your phone, and tweet us you question at options action if it is nice, we will answer it on air when options action return options action is sponsored by im not really a, i thought wall street guy. Ns. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade action. The biggest banks passing their first round of stress tests moments ago. Here is bank of america grinding higher through june along with the rest of financials even though a rate cut looks inevitable in july, mike khouw says now is the time to make a bet on banks here he is with the call to action mike. Im not sure if now is the time to make a bet on banks or if we found a decent one to make one if youre so inclined. Taking a look at why youre going to trade a call spread with bank of america, we were talking about it in the earlier segment. Valuation is very low, but a low valuation can be a twoedged sword because it can point to trouble ahead. So if you are inclined to make a bullish bet you want to try to find a way to do it while reducing the amount of risk you take actually we have an opportunity right now because options are cheap. Typically going into earnings, it moves about 4 . Its inclined to move about 2. 5 thats basically a tell options prices are lower than they normally would be. Fed cuts, i mean obviously it is one of the big headwinds people are talking about, low rates, low rate environment bad for banks. I think theres other issues we could potentially be concerned about, but obviously if you have very low valuation, some of the bad news is priced in and options are exceptionally cheap as we were just talking about. Now you have an opportunity to try to use those options and get long them to make a bet here, in this case to the bullish side where youre not risking a great deal specifically i was just looking out to august. You could buy the 29 calls for 80 cents you could sell the 32 calls for 20 cents against it. Net net, youre spending 60 cents on a 3 wide spread. Normally we look to buy debit spreads a quarter of a distance between the strikes. Here we get to do less than that another way to think about it, of course, is in this case only about a couple percent of the current stock price. Stock doesnt need to move that much for you to make some profits here of course, if this tell in the valuation and all of the bad news in the banks proves to be true, youre actually only risking a relatively small amount of the stock price to make this bet. I kind of feel it is kind of the asymmetric trade that youre looking for in situations like this where there obviously is some downside risk, but if you get a little bit of good news here, maybe you get a pop to the upside in this case, you know, it is up to 32 it was trading about 28. 60 when i was looking at it, a solid 10 move you have participation in while only risking a relatively small amount. Thanks for that, mike what do you think, dan i dont like it its fine if mike is looking do you know like what he is doing or the structure of the trade . It closed flat on the week. You know, it was a great week for the s p 500. It was record highs. Xlf closed flat on the week. Unless you know something about bank of americas q2 earnings and their q3 guidance that theyre going to give, i dont know why you would want to be in the space whatsoever to me the banks are selling in every rally until something materially happens and i dont know what it is. I dont dislike the trade. If you are bullish, youre in the money, have a ball. I mean, you said it there is an expression, old time, they dont act well. These are burdened securities right now. Their operating environment is tough at the markets level and, yes, their credit quality is good and some people say the Balance Sheet is better than theyve ever been. Thats always the case before it goes pearshaped. What is the catalyst once they get on their feet what is the catalyst, mike . That is earnings, one we identified here. If we have a situation on the rate side where people suddenly change their tune, thats a possibility. But heres the thing, right . So, is everyone going to run out and sell all of their stocks maybe up own procter a gamble, weve heard very good reasons not to own that. Some of the stocks that have been performing the best recently i would argue are the riskiest places to keep your money right now. Some of them which seem to be safe like procter gamble, some it is hard to believe they would be like beyond meats if you are looking for a place that you might be inclined to risk a little that they could somehow catch fire as Everything Else seems to have, financials a the weak space, and thats why you should use options to do it because in this case you are risking 2 of the current stock pace. Even in the financials, back to the concept of people being defensive as jim was talking about, look at stocks, theyre on fire. Theyre good . Theyre fragile we have strong stocks too extended. What you said before is everything is great before it goes pearshaped if you look at Goldman Sachs and morgan stanley, they should be having a field day with the ipo stuff. I get it, the net interest margin, the yield curve and all of that stuff is challenging the stocks are 25 off their 2018 postcrisis highs if you are telling me it is not some sign it is like warning bells screaming in silence what is going on here even with the s p 500 all time highs. Check out homebuilders, a fresh 52week high great news for one of our traders. Plus it is friday, so you know what it means, tweet us your burning questions at options action if you are lucky we will answer on the line. We are live on times square at the nasdaq much more options action right much more options action right after this. indistinguishable muttering announcer options action is sponsored by why are you so good at this . Had a coach in high school. Really helped me up my game. I had a coach. Math. Ooh. So, why dont traders have coaches . Who says they dont . Coach mcadoo you know, at Td Ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum just to help you improve your skills. Boom mad skills. Education to take your trading to the next level. Only with Td Ameritrade. What do you look for i want free access to research. Yep, Td Ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. No hidden fees. No platform fees. No trade minimums. And yes, its all at one low price. Td ameritrade. Welcome back to options action. Its time to talk a look back at a couple of our open trades. Last week dan said semis were about to short out theres your breakout, but it was never confirmed, meaning you werent actually outperforming as a tech or tmt Portfolio Manager because picks here were still doing worse than other things one could have chosen within ones benchmark or index. Id look out to august expier racing when the etf was trading at 103 this afternoon you could buy the august 190 put spread, paying 2. 50 for that the semiconductor etf up about 9 in june so far. Dan, how do you manage this trade . It is up 4 , week over week he obviously outperformed the s p 500. We said if theres anything on the trade front on a positive measure, it is going to rocket back it did that. We know micron is going to report next week, two weeks after broadcoms negative guidance so lets see what they have and lets see what they have into the g20, because if micron and the g20 stuff is disappointing, this stock is likely to be right back in the low 100s and the real thing is everything was up in june, and semis adjusted for beta and risk, underperformed the market. Not impressive stay short. Mike, what do you think yeah, no, i agree were taking a look as we were earlier at relative performance. I mean we obviously saw the market performing very well yesterday, not quite as well today, but also very well, and some of these things are not performing well. Theyre doing exactly as they have been, which is acting terribly all right. Back in march, mike and carter said the homebuilders would rally. If you look at the stocks in s p, select homebuilders index, etf, you will see the valuation of the whole group is trading about 12 times forward earnings, a cheap multiple the homebuilders themselves, which are a sub set, are actually much, much cheaper. You could look out at the june 38 calls, essentially at the money, about a buck and a half the xbf nearly 8 since then, hitting an eight week high so it is in the green. What do you do this is very interesting because, yes, it hit a high, but when did it hit the high tuesday, and i think it hasnt performed well since this was a nice double for us to have made, maybe hopefully some of you who put the trade on managed to sell those when it hit the highs on tuesday but i wouldnt actually continue to take a bullish position in xhb. I think theyre done thats right. And they decouple with ten years, when they sunk below two and when they should get a lift they stalled the trade seems up. Okay. Up next, your tweets and the final call announcer options action is sponsored by patterns. Ive even built my own historic trading model. And youre still not sure if you want to make the trade . Exactly. Sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. Is there a cure . Td ameritrades trade desk. They can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. Sounds perfect. See, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, ive done my job. Call for a strategy gut check with Td Ameritrade. Welcome back to options action. Time to take your tweets our first viewer asks, is it the right time to buy s. P. Y. Puts . Considering that we made an alltime high. What do you say, mike . Would there be a better time than right after you are reaching an alltime high after the market is looking a little bit extended, seeing the kind of relative strength we are, identifying the overpriced segments we have and notices options premiums are low, so the answer is yes. Next asks, would you buy july calls on microsoft when its at a 52week high with earnings in july dan. Yes, i think it could make a lot of sense to do stock replacement to find the risk right now the july 26 with stock at 137 at 4 bucks, so less than 3 , thats the large market cap company. To me that does make sense. All right time for the final call. Carter. Fedex, we think, has risks. Dont be there mike . Sell calls, spread fedex, and maybe buy s. P. Y. Puts. Protector, crowded trade. Puts are cheap heading into earnings that does it for us see you back here next friday at 5 30 in the meantime mad money starts right now [announcer] the following is a paid program for automatic home standby generators. Brought to you by Generac Power systems. [narrator] theres no place like home and today, you rely on power more than ever for all the comforts you love. But when your power goes out, you feel helpless, out of control, youre in the dark without air conditioning or heat. 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