The 10 year is that for 24. 48 so it had been up at 425 and now we are down about three basis points. Its a pretty high level and we are up at the kind of levels we havent seen since last year and before that since before the financial crisis. The u. S. Dollar index is off about 1. 5 points. With these very high yields, it draws people into the dollar but they have started to give up some of the gains we have seen in the last few weeks and nymex crude is back up to date dollar per barrel at 81. 40 one cents. Jon i am watching some of the Energy Starts trending higher with oil pushing back higher and one of the big things outside the macro headlines is been the Retail Sector with so many Earnings Reports. We are still seeing a mixed picture from that group. Youve got a name Like Ross Stores with guidance that was crowdpleasing so the shares are up about 5 now but then you got farfetched thats getting crushed, down more than 40 with struggles for the u. S. Business. Dont go to sleep because who still got earnings to watch for to the end of this friday Training Session the Technology Sector has been busy lately and we are awaiting numbers from cybersecurity giant palo alto networks. Theres been conversation about the fact that theyre having a fairly lengthy Earnings Call schedule aftermarket on a friday. One of the biggest earnings stories of the day has been deere where you had solid numbers and guidance that was above expectations but theres a general view that the best times are now in the rearview mirror, at least thats what analysts are suggesting. Matt i think its pretty weird because you new crop prices were coming down before the fantastic Earnings Report and before they raised their fullyear forecast. Lets bring in mike hertzer who covers john deere. What happened in the Earnings Report that drove the shares down . Was there anything we didnt know already that was the reason . Their guidance particular in south america, looking for flat earlier and now its flat or down 5 . They had some massive soybean and corn corruption farmers misplaced some of their marketing and have less to funds to pump into the machinery. Thats kind of a signal that it might get to a little weaker ones u. S. Farmers start to harvest. Jon with most earnings stories during this earnings season, ive asked about the spending tower but what we know about the spending reality for farmers when it going and it comes to buying reform Farm Equipment . Crop prices are still very strong and they should have plenty of money in the bank. They will be a little bit more conservative going forward. They like to pay for cash for a lot of stuff so not so impacted by rising rates but just a little more tentative compared to the boom times of the last 12 months . Matt thank you for joining us and talking about whats going on at dear. Lets get more on big machinery and manufacturing. Scotts company has 180 Years Experience developing, pioneering equipment and services for farmers and builders, big tractor maker as well. Thank you for joining us. Let me get your take on the state of the farmer. Its not just in america but around the world. We are starting to see crop prices come off. As the farmer but all of the equipment he or she is going to buy . Is that the concern . Thanks for having me on. We are seeing around the world the sustainable need for agriculture equipment over time has not diminished at all. We are coming off a very strong peak. We were early to talk about the weaknesses in south america which was somewhat politically driven. We took our medicine early and brought down inventories to reasonable levels. In north america, report this morning is so strong, we still see very good demand here. We obviously dont expect markets to stay at this peak level forever. We are supporting our dealers and driving retail but overall, the need for Better Technology in better productivity and yield come all the things we bring with it, we think a longterm outlook for agriculture couldnt be better than it is right now. Matt what is the competition light . You ran volaris before you came to cnh. You guys brought indian for my nothing brand to a real challenger to harley davidson. Can you do the same at cnh versus john deere or another tractor maker . I had a great 12 years and it was a great place to be the Market Leader and go to being the number two. I am watching with some of my competitors did their about how we should react. Its filling whitespace with new products and driving fundamental performance in improving the relationship with our dealers. It is really about delivering on the fundamentals and im really proud of the way the team is getting after that. With how much money we are pouring into r d to give better precision and Autonomous Solutions to the farmers, it gives me a lot of confidence in where we are going in the communities we have. Jon lets dive a little deeper into that. I would argue that your industry gets a little less wall street attention on subjects like Autonomous Vehicles or ai than the average automaker. You are talking about that investment right now. How is it influencing or resulting in the product evolution for a company like yours . Its a huge part of our investment. Many farmers use cash and spend most of the day on their iphones because the tractor is driving itself. What we are talking that is getting to the next level where an operator does not the farmer doesnt need to be in the vehicle itself. We will bring those products to market and we have been on farms now with trials but we will him to get to market for sale in 2025 and expand the portfolio from there. Its the automation, not the autonomy. Autonomy is where the vehicle can move by its of the automation is when the tractor performs, it performs operations the farmer would otherwise have to do and it gives them the opportunity to get significantly more productivity in yields. We minimal weve been a market for that. We believe we can bring that technology and Machine Learning in automation to more farmers and more equipment and help drive farm fundamentals for a long time. Jon what about on vehicle pricing . In the traditional auto space, we see the challenge of producing new models but at a higher price point and trying to make those appealing to consumers. I would imagine to a certain extent, you want to be respectful of what farmers can pay big you also want to provide more bills and whistles. What goes into that math . We have had tremendous challenges with inflation over the like several years. We are proud the way the team has managed things over the last eight years. What weve guided to his getting back to a normal price increase vehicle which is to3 and that typically drive productivity in the factory and material input. We can do that and still provide many new features and benefits to our farmers. Some of these will be an subscription type revenues so is not the same part overall. What we seen of late is high prices for used equipment and they are able to offset big farmers with cash for most equipment. They want to buy the highest end equipment we can offer because it does give them the greatest opportunity to have more yield in productivity from their farms. Matt the new methane tractor come is that a product you can get the farmer to help keep their cost down and boost their yields . Thats a tremendous innovation. I recently read a book talking about the best innovation is just finding ways to adapt what others have done. Our sister division has been Market Leader in lng project tractor for a long time and we included that in a tractor and put it into a generator and we got operating in the u. K. That is purely running on manure from a slurry pit. We catch of the methane and clean it and use it for equipment or broad desert bring it back to the grid and its a product and technology we want to royal lodge and further operations in the u. K. In europe and the rest of the world but great opportunities from farmers to lower costs to be more sustainable. Its actually a carbon negative environment when we offer it. Jon thats helpful context and like to continue watching. Thanks very much for the perspective. We will take a quick break and when we come back, water falling after miscalculated demands in operations. We will dig deeper. This is bloomberg. If youre trying to get a view of the whole organizational Financial Health and youre trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. Its not just tech, its not just people. Its how they Work Together to provide that experience to the customer. As a finance organization that is what you want to do. upbeat music awww. Awww. Awww. Nope. Constant Contact delivers the Marketing Tools your Small Business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. Constant contact. Helping the small stand tall. I did have hearing aids from another company. I was just frustrated. I almost gave up. With miracle ear its all about service. Theyre personable. Theyre friendly. Im very happy with them. We provide you with a free lifetime of aftercare. Meaning free checkups, cleanings, and adjustments. I see someone new. Someone happy. Its really made a difference. Call miracle ear at 1800miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. Jon this is bloomberg markets. Time for our stock of the hour. Weve been watching estee lauder shares struggle today after its latest results. The company is grappling with sluggish revenue in asia and supply change miscues and it is trailing its french rival loreal. Matt i think its a fascinating story to begin with. When you compare to others that have done well like sephora and altar, whats wrong at estee lauder . I think a lot of this has to do with where they sell the bulk of their products. Thats right, 1 3 of their sales is asia travel sales. The asian consumer has been very slow to come back. The u. S. Consumers doing quite well in terms of Retail Travel but in asia, its been slow. Part of the problem here is its challenging to have supply chain issues in asia that did not ramp up manufacturing there and did not ramp up distribution there in the way they probably should considering its not fair to their business so they were sending merchandise to their retailers six months in advance so with and when the asian consumer did my comeback is fast, that took a toll on the business. Jon if we are going to compare the situation to loreal, is there something they have done that maybe stands out or creates more of that competitive threat . There are a couple of things and when you look at the United States in particular, loreal has grab market share not just from estee lauder but from a lot of the other beauty brands, the Broader Consumer brands in this beauty space. The things they have done well, one thing appealed to dermatologists. They gotten them to recommend their products to their patients. The patients trust their dermatologist to so to tell them what to do. Thats important and scale has allowed them to spend more in advertising revenue. They have benefited from that. Their sales are more than double to 18 billion. Estee lauder is known for the prestige segment but it looks like loreal is grabbing share there as well. Matt they have some big brands. I know mac and bobby brown, are they higher end . The estee lauder brands are higher, tom ford for example, there are things these are ones that are meant to appeal to the consumer. They are supposed to be stronger. The places in the aspinall relations are those who are struggling. People will still want you to has estee lauder struggling with weakness. It will take them a long time to look into next year and maybe their fiscal 2025. Matt they have to get those asian travelers back into the international terminals. The slowmoving influencer Rising Interest Rates will end up torpedoing the economy according to jeremy grantham. Here is some of his interview. Its a Deflationary Forces from the tech stocks breaking in 2021 t, probablyoo big. The power of Interest Rates rising and depressing real estate market, very negative, slowmoving influence. I suspect that they will once again dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year. And an accompanying decline in stock prices. So the recession you are predicting which will probably not happen in 2023 it may start there. The Federal Reserve recently said we cleared the recession hurdle and they dont really project a recession any longer. I think the feds record on these things is wonderful. It is almost guaranteed to be wrong. They have never called a recession and the tickly not the ones following the great bubbles. They prided him cells in stimulating bubbles they took credit for the. You said you werent a big fan of jay powell in the way hes been handling inflation. Is that correct . Yes, thats correct . You think hes done a better job recently getting inflation under control . I think its largely out of his hands. The forces work. I suspect inflation will never be as low as it has averaged the last 12 years and we have reentered a time with a moderately higher inflation moderately hires street. Life is simple, low rates composure beth a as a prices lower rates push as it prices down. Jon to watch the full interview with jeremy grantham, watch bloomberg wealth september 5 at 9 p. M. In new york. Coming up, two major ip is expected later this year, the story of arm and instacart next. This is bloomberg. Jon this is bloomberg markets. We have seen a drought of ipos for a time but we are starting to see some indications that things could pick up. Sources tell us that chipmaker arm has tapped 28 banks to underwrite its highly anticipated public debut. We look at this story now. There is a couple of stories we want to get through a lets start with what we know at this point. As we reported, they are working with 28 banks which is a lot of banks but it will be a big ipo, possibly the biggest of the year. They could raise 8 billion so they need a lot of bankers helping them round up that amount of capital. We also have instacart coming up as reported yesterday. Theyve been talking about it for years. We might finally see the filing next week. They are also aiming to go in september. Matt we have seen a drought. Hardly anybody has been coming to market and its a real concern for private equity as well as anyone else looking for an exit. Will that change or do we continue to see a very slow calendar for ipos . Its definitely not going to be like 2021 where there were five ipos in a day sometimes. There will be a handful of tech ipos this fall which is a lot more than there was last year. Its still slim pickings. Jon what did the industry have to work through . You are constantly covering some of the private valuations. With instacart, you get into the details of what the valuation had looked like behind closed doors. Did that influence when they wanted to go public . They have actually lowered their own valuation internally. They were one of the First Companies to do that. Of their size. At one point, they were valued for 39 million in their internal valuation is 13 billion. They are aware that Market Conditions have changed. We havent seen their financials yet but ive been told they have been able to keep up some of the growth they achieved in the pandemic. We will see more of that in the coming weeks. Matt does everybody want in on this ipo . Considering their arent any other new issues and that its a company backed by the most darling of stockmarket darlings of 202023, nvidia. Does that mean there will be more demand . There is a lot of pentup demand for tech ipos in general. If anyone wants to be investing in tech companies, they havent had a lot of opportunities in the last two years. Obviously, anything around it, theres a lot of excitement now. Arm has assertively done a lot in the mobile chips space but there diversifying and doing a lot with simon they are expanding to other markets. Other Companies Might be Strategic Investors and they have also worked with the company sometimes as partners. Jon helpful context, great reporting is always and we will watch the ipo stories. You still have some of these Ipo Companies from your recent years that are struggling to get back to ipo levels and tech in general has been struggling in this second. Half of the year matt certainly over the last few sessions in the s p is down about 0. 1 so tech is underperforming. This is bloomberg. Markets on edge but on the edge of what . Im romaine bostick. Katie im katie greifeld. We are kicking you off to the closing bell with about two hours to go. We are looking at down markets. The s p 500 did fight back to positive territory then sank a little bit down about 1 10 of a percent. The nasdaq 100, of about. 3 . Headed for a