Rising by 2000s a day. A vaccine on the horizon. The u. S. Could approve the pfizer shot as early as thursday. Secretary alex azar says all americans who want a vaccine should be able to get one next year. Azar we will focus on the front lines with the initial 40 million doses in the next month, and we will progressively keep adding more and more people. Be thinking in the februarymarch time frame you are going to see more general vaccinations. The Second Quarter of next year, we will have enough vaccine for everyone who wants it. Is dr. Georgeme rutherford, university of california San Francisco professor of epidemiology. You are in california, locking down as of yesterday. Give me some perspective. What is going on on the ground . How bad is it . Dr. Rutherford this week, we are having more cases than we have ever had. The icus are starting to fill up. Fresno and bakersfield, los angeles, metropolitan Southern California the icu capacity is below 15 . It is very, very problematic and approaching scary. Is 15 the right number . Is that the correct way of approaching this . Get below the level of Spare Capacity and shut everything down . Dr. Rutherford you could put it higher. It should not be lower, though. You have to have some number. Where weying to guess have to slow everything down so much. Macron said, a brutal break. I think 15 is as reasonable and emergency brake as anything. You could have it a little higher. You might be pulling it early. I think it is just about right. Alix what is interesting is how markets are looking through it. Part of it is the vaccine. Some people are saying the lockdowns are not as severe as the first time. Weuess my question is, can stay not as severe in terms of the lockdown in march . The lockdown at large . Dr. Rutherford we know things now we did not know in march. Schools are allowed to remain. Retailers are able to continue to have onsite sales. All of that is going to work. Im glad i dont own a bar. Those who do, this is not a good time. Restaurants are going to continue to have takeout. It is not great, but it is certainly better than nothing. But certain parts of the economy theaters, movie theaters, that is just not going to happen. We cannot allow that to happen. Selective andmore targeted, but it will feel like a hammer nonetheless. Guy professor, thanksgiving was a couple of weeks back. Are we feeling that now . When do we fully feel thanksgiving . When does the peak come . Dr. Rutherford we are feeling thanksgiving right now. At New York Times looked canadian thanksgiving and transmission rates in october. They had an acceleration. We are seeing the same acceleration not only around the country, but here in california as well. Depends peak comes, it how we lockdown. France, they were able to turn the corner and drop transmission rates to low levels with about two weeks of lockdown. There are people in the pipeline now who are infected, who have been exposed, who are developing infections, who will eventually get hospitals and icus. It is a three week pipeline. We are trying to manage out on the other end of that. I think you have to give it a few weeks and see how it is working. Alix are we going to have a christmas . Dr. Rutherford of course we will have christmas. It is just not going to be the same. Save your big holiday parties for next year or push them into the spring and pretend it is christmas them. I cannot give you better advice than that. Guy looking back to where we started the conversation, with alex azar talking about the vaccine is that the point at which we stop rationing . Do you think we have a model for orderg out the vaccine in to achieve maximum effect . After rutherford we are trying to solve two problems with the initial rollout. It does not matter if we have a zillion doses today. Somebody has to get it first and we have to put the logistics in place. I dont think it is rationing, but more of an intelligent rollout. We have to protect workers. This is the wrong time to have icu and acutecare capacity decrease because workers are getting sick or exposed. We cannot afford that. Icus are more than beds. We have to have the people. Try to protect the most vulnerable, there is another spate of nursing home outbreaks. We want to keep those people as protected as possible. Then, we can start moving out from there. Most critical infrastructure, the icu workers, and the most Vulnerable People in nursing homes. I agree that is absolutely the right move. Guy we really appreciate your time. Thank you for joining us. Infessor George Rutherford San Francisco. Lets talk about the Market Reaction to all of this. Vix pickupsaw the earlier on. Im wondering whether the market is having a few downs this monday morning, whether it should continue to focus on the orure, the vaccine future, the difficulties we all face right now. California is seeing a lockdown. Others are likely to follow. Michael we are seeing that shift where growth is outperforming value by about 1 today. Plays,e these pandemic probably gaining more sponsorship today. Where the reopening clays are becoming covid casualties again, we are seeing more lockdowns. We have a lot coming into yearend. It does not look like much is going to change in january. Investors are expressing a modest bit of concern. There is not real fear yet. Alix there is not real fear. It was confusing. California, when they first locked down in march, it was a disaster for the markets. Is that mean they had to double down on what positions you had in the recovery trade . Michael i believe in the recovery trade. We expect them to be well into their rollout in the spring. When we think we have about two quarters ahead of us, we are still going to be dealing with this pandemic and it is going to be a challenge and an issue. The market will give you opportunity to buy some of these reopened plays again. That said, hopefully this pandemic is a finite event that is going to end by midyear. If we can move forward and start returning to normal with those reopening clays, it will start to work again. In the meantime, we just got a very disappointing jobs report for november. I would expect december is going to be worse. In the shortterm, the outlook is not very good. Investors can look through that. They should find some opportunities in the next couple of months. Do stocks price the stimulus deal out of d. C. . Feltel its funny, we through september and october we were on stimulus hopes. Got a lift the last week because of stimulus hopes. I imagine we will see that revealed this week, in combination with a government funding bill. That should definitely provide a little certainty going forward. Think the bigger problem is in the shortterm again, after this, the next couple of months, there is not going to be a lot going on. As you mentioned before, we will have the pfizer vaccine, Pfizer Biontech approval. Hopefully, we will get the moderna approval next week. Tesla will be watching friday through monday. And then we will go into the holiday season, where it is going to be very quiet. We miss out on a lot of holiday parties and things like that. They have all been canceled. Black friday weekend was a bit of a disappointment. We have already missed a bit of the Economic Activity we would normally expect in december. That is going to show up in the january numbers. It has been more consensus, right . You are going to have higher yields in some capacity. There is that few months you have to get through. There is a lot being bought on the s p. You are going to have some shakeout here. Michael we have seen this big move to growth this year, with the nasdaq up already. There has been a lot of optimism. There has been a lot of speculation. The fed has pumped so much money into the system. There is a lot of liquidity. Int forced the levels we saw 2008 and 2009 with the Global Financial crisis. That is driving a lot of speculation. In some ofa shakeout these spaces. It has been a barbell. You have big winners and big losers. The big losers are the reopening clays that were casualties. Should be opportunities there. A oneing on my mind 2020, you dont want to invest in the long term based on the winners in 2020. There are bigger patterns and shifts that will change, but there are companies being sold at massive discounts now. They are going to recover. Those are the ones you want to buy as an investment for the future, not taking what is happening in 2020 and extrapolating on the next several years. That is really dangerous. A year from now, we should see a more normal environment than what we are living. Alix cannot even imagine it. Thank you for setting us up for this monday. This is bloomberg. Alix im alix steel with guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. T. J. T Investment Bank has been on a tear, growing at a pretty fast pace. Spoke toman and ceo bloomberg in an exclusive interview and discussed potential threats to independent Investment Banks. Firm is man versus machine. We are a talentfocused organization. Train therecruit and best talent and create a culture that gets that talent to work together, we can provide superior capabilities, superior advice. Other firms have more infrastructure. Oftentimes, it is the power of the organization. Out,u try and extrapolate will there be data analytics, other capabilities that machine oriented firms can develop over time that can reduce the influence of the personal touch . Im a big believer that it is a hybrid. Proprietary insights and analytics, but you also need relationships, experience, and judgment. About always thinking Market Forces and hopefully we will stay ahead of them. Guy something you get by being all of and not having the infrastructure of the big banks. You have been in business for five years. How big do you want to take this . It is interesting. We dont leave growth as the objective it is the output, not the input. Driving growth, there are going to be two things. How are we at attracting best in class talent . Standards,ing our how successful would we be . We saw college campuses, graduate schools with 20 30 year experienced dealmakers attracted to our platform. As long as this is viewed as a more welcoming and more effective home, we can continue to scale the number of employees to multiples. Our exclusive interview with paul taubman. Vanke loyalty to new york might be in question. The bank is weighing plans for a new florida hub. Executives are scouting locations in south florida. Hub for u. S. Financial firms. A fantastic story. How far advanced is this . How will is this . Is it just florida . Are we looking elsewhere . Bestldman is one of the known firms and its rise is tied to new york. We are looking to move out of the key division to florida. They could choose to center in florida. They could not move at all. They are hunting for cheaper locations. In a yearo have been when we had this giant work from home experiment. Jobs have move more quickly from new york then at the start of the year. We have seen Senior Executives go out there in florida and look for locations. They could find out when it is where it is they could set up new. Alix we have seen other shops do this. Why is this so significant . What does it mean for a hub like new york city . I would say you cannot flip a switch and suddenly move 5000 jobs to a new city. New york is facing challenges. It has more empty office space than at any time. They do seem set on moving these jobs faster. A small step for goldman is a giant step for the rest of the industrials. Others have the same kind of deliberation. Weigh what it means for the future of new york as a finance hub, and other cities that could look to benefit from it. When i saw the story this morning, i assumed it was back office. States asand other well. How much of this is about tax . How much of this is going to be about moving higher . Can they accommodate higher earners moving from new york to florida . Big question. This is not the first time that florida has tried to establish itself as wall street south. Companies that have tried this in the past have always gravitated back toward new york. Is 20 20 going to prove to be different . Slurred rich american it has lured rich americans for a long time, but has never had the rainmaking of wall street. Most of the jobs that have been going there, theyve been back office. There has been a real conversation not only on back office, but being able to take business professionals and getting them to see the attraction of florida. Alix really good to catch up. Great to cap a really good piece. A big week a lot of debuts coming up. Alix it is a big week for ipos. Thought todoordash be among the top ipos for the year. It feels like being isnt a good enough adjective to describe this. Airbnb could have a 42 billion valuation. That is incredible. The company was suffering from the pandemic months ago. 42 billion takes us almost as valuable as marriott. It is a great time for these companies to go public. It will set december as a record one for ipos in this record year. Is it sustainable . Thate number of companies are coming even after airbnb and doordash continue to show a steady flow of ipos. Part of it is we are seeing the vix down from where it was at its height. Whatrest rate lows are investors going to buy . Technology companies, biotech thisnies going public tends to be about what investors are wanting right now. What do you make of airbnb in this environment when nobody is traveling . Doordash did not make sense in the middle of the pandemic. They started to cut costs, reduce headcount a bit. Illhuge investors rock, apollo, silverlake. You had more money being poured in. At the same time, they were able to suffer a lesser revenue decline then you saw in marriott. Has reallyc pivot shown brian chesneys ability to weatherhard times to hard times. Guy the contrast with marriott is interesting. How is airbnb being valued . Its not the same because it does not have physical locations all over the world. At the same time, the ability to pivot to different types of customers, the different regions the online aspect of this is important for airbnb as well as other growth potentials. It still has a ways to go. Guy looking forward to it. Still ahead, legislators looking to hammer out the details of a bipartisan relief package. A democratic strategist is going to be joining us. Going to be talking live. We are going to be talking about whether states and locals are going to get that 160 billion. The usual gifts are just not going to cut it. We have to find something else. Good luck what does that mean . We are doomed. [laughter] thats it. I figured it out were going to give togetherness. That sounds dumb. Were going to take all those Family Moments and package them. Hmm. [laughing] that works. Any idea how much it will cost . You have a choice. Insurance or goodrx. I have insurance. Insurance is not what it used to be. People struggle to get their prescription covered and prices keep rising. I recommend goodrx. You get free coupons to save on your prescriptions. [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. Goodrx, smart. [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. Download the free app today. Alix . Breaking news for you u. S. All right, some breaking news for you. The sanctions on china, on officials who played a role in disqualifying the Hong Kong Legislature one more rampup and theon between china u. S. Ahead of president elect Biden Taking Office at the end of january. Have ours, we correspondent. The tensions between the u. S. Withna might ease if biden is that the correct narrative at this point with so much heading into this administration . Becoming yes, it is increasingly politically popular in both parties to take a strong stand against china. We have seen that from republicans and democrats. This really puts bite him in a bind at the beginning of his administration because he does not want to be seen as weak on china. Guy anna, i want to pivot to the stimulus deal. Louisianas bill cassidy had this to say. Sen. Cassidy neither have sa that is fair, we have final language. Our final language, chris, will probably come out early this week, earlier this week so people can look at it. The pain of the American People is driving this and i am optimistic both will come on board. Guy where are the compromises . Is there a compromise on liability . Yeah, we are expecting to see not the legislative text, but a more robust summary of the different sections. Andill see more details what kinds of Liability Protections are in there, which is what republicans have wanted. And there is more state aid, which is the democrats request. Its looking better but there are a few final sticking points to be resolved. Guy absolutely, with the covid payrollspiking and the numbers on friday, maybe theres to getting that killed him. Joining the conversation, democratic strategist getting that bill through. Joining the conversation, democratic strategist anthony coley. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. Lets talk about the possibility of a deal on stimulus. The story out of california, do you think the payroll numbers on friday, do you think we are likely to get a deal done . Anthony thank you for having me, guy. I am more optimistic for a deal today than the last several months. You mentioned the payroll numbers on friday. Saysata says, the data that there is an urgent need to get money to millions of american businesses and millions of unemployed americans. I went back and read it two times when i saw it. 10 milliontill americans today who are unemployed to have a job at the beginning of the pandemic. More urgent now than it has been since the start of the pandemic. Are we expecting and do we need president elect biden to come out and push this deal through and get the House Democrats in line, get nancy pelosi saying, ok, fine, i will agree . Does that need to happen . Will it . Anthony one thing i have learned about joe biden is he to the ground for when it is helpful for him to weigh in in congress and when it is not. I suspect he will be on the phone with the Democratic Leaders in the house and senate, policy and schumer, to see whether or not it will even be helpful for him to weigh in. Plus we know he has said this past week that it is necessary even if he cannot get a full loaf now, half a loaf is better than nothing. Its still a big number. This package does not include stimulus, additional stimulus measures, which independent economists and others say is needed were talking an additional 1200 or so for families making 75,000 a year. That is what joe biden and other democrats like nancy pelosi would like to see happen. Past,y cannot get that and at the second that does not seem likely, their hope is come january and february with a democratic president and democratic control of congress and that is a big if they can get the second half of the loaf. Guy isnt that too late . Is it that the problem . People are suffering now. Even if you get a deal done this week, how quickly can people actually access the money . Yes, it is so important, as senator cassidy said. It is important to see the details in this expanded summary that could come out today. I agree with you, guy. I actually think we are behind that moreball, stimulus should have been passed in september and october and in action congresss to do that, i think that is one of the reasons we have started to see the economy slow. I would note here, tia well, to get the economy moving again all americans must heed i would to get thetoo, economy moving again, all americans must heed the president was in georgia, in valdosta, and the writ thousands of people Standing Shoulder to shoulder. They were outside, but we are in a Public Health crisis, the likes of which this country has not seen in 100 years. Economyy get the moving, all of us, democrats, republicans, need to heed the advice of Public Health officials. Talk about the process. You have a potential Government Shutdown tomorrow. They have to agree on a budget. That will probably be pushed off a week. . Hat does that look like what does the horse trading look like . What does the rhetoric look like over the next week . There will be a lot of posturing. If i were a market participant, gangld a attention to this of eight, before democrats and republicans in the house and senate were talking joe thesen, Susan Collins middleoftheroad of the road democrats and republicans on both sides of congress who have been working even over the thanksgiving holiday too i read one of your reports today, the even had a call on the morning of thanksgiving. They have been working behind the scenes to get this deal over the finish line. Its always important to see what the senate and house leaders have to say, what the president has to say. We should always Pay Attention to that. But Pay Attention to what those eight centrist immigrants and republicans on both sides of the isle are doing and saying because that is where we will get a deal we can finally deliver to the American People. Anthony, talking about delivering to the American People, the biden team has announced its health care lineup. The deskple will be in in charge of the biggest rollout of vaccines in history. What do you hear . What is your degree of confidence in their ability to deliver this amazing story effectively and quickly . Because the u. S. Economy is relying on this now. I am happy that a name that many of your viewers know what will be working together on thealth officials rollout of the vaccine. Of course, he had a distinguished career in the private sector in the Obama Administration looks likeny, it we lost your feed there, but thank you for your time. Anthony coley. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg markets. Coming up, the president and ceo of northwell health. Thats at 1 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. In on the bloomberg first word news. Im rick to group the belooks as though there will a deal to keep the government in operation. Aide says theyal will have until next weekend to strike a deal. Has been air show canceled due to the coronavirus. Largest aviation events in the world and held every other year. This is also where manufacturers showcased new models. The u. K. Will continue talks with the European Union next year if they cannot reach a deal. Period will not be extended past december 31. One official warned that the the jury did today. This is bloomberg. Guy . Guy thank you very much indeed. Lots of moving parts. And ajohnson representative from the European Union will have a phone call. Some are saying that Boris Johnson could walk away after this morning. If talks continue you could see another crucial thing happening later on, which is the internal markets bill comes back to the house of commons, which would allow the u. K. To break international law. Alix can we assume then that the internal markets bill is leverage before the call . Is that what we can infer . Guy possibly. Levelher thing is the playing field, which seems to be the biggest sticking to at the moment and trying to get a breakthrough there is very dismal. This is fixable. The level playing field, i think, is probably where the real difficulty is going to lie. Where the u. K. Needs to it here to any deals i heard that there was something called an evolution mechanism. It makes me feel like if we get any kind of skinny deal or a deal it will be a rolling enforcement basis. There will be a lot of tension that will exist for a long time. Over time, if it were to be more technical, technocratic, at that point they might refuse to take the air and the heat out of the story, but at the moment theres a lot of heat and it. We are not going to be having any phone call with Boris Johnson. And at the top of the hour we will get another take on this. Alix were looking for to that. Coming up, curb your enthusiasm, guys. Will be a buy. We will talk to ed morris on the 2021 outlook on futures. This is bloomberg. Ritika it is a time for a look at the Bloomberg Business flash. I am ritika gupta. Themberg has learned that social network has been accused of thwarting competition. The ftc andled by new yorks letitia james, who is a democrat. A set of is looking at new mac processors as early as next week as next year. Up to chips live will increasehey the performance of the machines running those chips. Alix thank you. Now we have the Market Outlook that ruined my sunday night, thank you very much. Its a bullish it, and in the expect 100 andy copper is too hot to handle. I just. It was a great report. The importanceat of china buying, but it says it will really be the longterm shift 2d carbonization that will make this season fundamentally for the commodity world. That is right. China remains the center of the commodity world. They are stepping it up to really ramp up strategic stockpiling. Part of that then becoming the decarbonization story as well. They are buying everything. Should you know which one to get bullish on how, when, where, and why . I think we have the view of the oil market. They are pretty important. We see inventories drawing down quarter by quarter by quarter. Copper, we think the decarbonization is the story, where there has been a little bit too much exuberance, particularly in the last couple months, so we are looking at buying dips there. But they are robust guy ed, good morning. It is guy. How much will be vaccine impact the commodity complex . It was priced into the commodity complex last month. We love oil. The exuberance, theres a little optimism about the vaccine. Things have calmed down. I think the opec decision to gradually put oil back on the market is helping the oil side, there is more of a curb your enthusiasm its more about the title we took because most commodities got a little too frothy. Vaccine penetration is too early in the year. Alix that is kind of what you to hoting about copper, to handle. When do we hit even higher levels . Alix ed we think the buying prechinese new year may cause a get. Its hard to know may cause a dip. Its hard to know. The price would be factoring in a drought a drawdown in inventory were still sing a surplus on the market. It we think that surplus will be disappearing by the end of the year. We are much more looking forward then we the year and have the continue price moving upward. I talked tox and Michael Oleary the other day and he was painting a very positive picture for the recovery of aviation. Do you agree it will be positive . What do see happening for jet fuel as it compares with other deals distillates for example . Ed only part of this eels with pentupst question, the demand for travel, and obviously the travel will be there. This is the travel. Restoredlikely to be by the middle of this year. This is why we are bullish diesel versus jet. Jetsecond issue is the engine story. Retired. Ese being we do not have the jet fuel on the runway. That will be the efficiency game. Thirdly we have the movement. Oward sustainable fuel erodingble fuel will be with the jet fuel demand as well. We do not think it will recover compared with what happens with the efficiency gains on jet engines, we may fuel. Een the week of jet we would see jet fuel peking ng longfore peaki before gasoline. Alix wow. That is a call. Ed i think the flattening is a function of the hedging with two rounds of upward movement. We think they are going to continue they are going to continue to add rates and be brent thenullish dubai. We have crude coming back into the market and we are seeing slow down. F november and now, we have brent moving into backwardation. Is what they deliver. They deliver gasoline. They deliver guy ed, we believe it there. Citis global head of research. We will talk brexit next. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Call to receive 1,000 off your kohler walkin bath. And right now were offering no payments for 18 months. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Alix, of course, is in new york. What you need to know this hour . Brexit on a knife edge. Borisfour years of talks, johnson will have a meeting in the next few minutes that could be could be make a break poland will decide whether or not they will package. To veto the eu and germany is eyeballing tighter restrictions as frances unlikely to hit its target of 5000 daily cases in december. There is evidence that the virus may have peaked here. At friday. A lot of optimism. This is where we are monday. I will start with
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