Radio. Alongside lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tom keene will be back with us on wednesday. Erasing the mornings losses. Monday morning, we are faced with vaccine news. Some other news as well. We are pushing things forward every monday, it seems. Lisa although it seems like the market didnt respond so much to that news. There seems to be a lot of positivity baked in. So my people who came on this show were saying if there is any pullback, which there were likely be which there will. Ikely be, buy that dip that seems to be the feeling as we bleed higher towards the end of the year. Jonathan this morning, but theyre not out this morning, requestplanning to approval for this vaccine. What we have to think about is what would the anchor expectations on the policy side and on the data side. Later this week, the chiasm claims, payrolls the ism claims, payrolls. Do people start to get worried about the nearterm future . We hear from secretary mnuchin and chair powell this week. A bit of a gap opening up between the two of them in the past week. Where do you expect the pain to be in the coming months, and will that be sufficient to the anchor the expectations to deanchor the expectations for 2021 . Lisa some of these programs that really supported peoples personal Balance Sheets over the past few months expire in the next few weeks. What happens then . How directly is the impact of people not getting those enhanced unappointed benefits or other assets, how much does that directly affect retail spending . How much do the retail sales we see over the weekend with black friday and cyber monday disappoint, or could they continue to support the narrative we are seeing . Jonathan nearterm, data is going to soften. Vious . That ob lisa it is. Jonathan last week, i asked how convertible would you be if we outlook in the0 u. S. Lisa i think a lot of people are overlooking that. I keep going back to this note of in km capital, of kick capital,tal of mkm where they said the data would be worse than expected. Jonathan lisa trying to paint a bear. [laughter] lisa i am trying to represent the other side. Jonathan you did a great job of that. Lisa i really tried. Thanks. I appreciate it. Jonathan joining us now, burdens Capital Advisor director of portfolio strategy. Great to catch up. More vaccine news this morning. Some mma going on as well. S p looking to take on i had just market for something around 40 billion. Theres some real confidence about the year to come. Any reason that that confidence takes a hit . I think you guys were talking about it. You describe the fact that the data is going to be soft the next couple of months. While it looks like investors are looking past that, keep in mind that equity markets or bond markets tend to overshoot and overshoot to overshoot and under should. Markets are really placing a lot of that positivity in the second half of next year, and there is a chance that that data sentiment can be hampered in the coming months. We have a lot going on from a political standpoint. Case is continuing to rise in the u. S. , and we have a lot of information coming out over the next six to nine months once we get distribution of the vaccine. So i think Economic Data, while it will be overlooked in the next few weeks because people have anticipated that, it really what we could start to see from the hewn element from the Human Element on the virus cases here. Jonathan explaining this market has been so difficult all year. If we had set down january 1 and were told what to expect with the world around us, and then asked how low would stocks be this year, we would not have come up with up 10 or 11 on the year 2020. If i said to be people, the zero yield the 10 year 0. 85 , you would not have got that they would be lower by a couple a basis points over the month. Just what is going on in the bond market . Can we have a sufficient explanation for it even that we would have got all the explanations for Everything Else wrong, even if you knew all the data points for 2020 . With youaac i agree completely. Now enough us i think have agreed with you complete me. None of us would have protected what we saw this year. But from a fixed income perspective, i think theres a tugofwar going on between the positivity going out the next 12 to 18 months on a vaccination and may be getting back to some sense of normalcy, but in the very new term, you have speculation around additional fed policy measures. You have the announcement of janet yellen, who is very fiscal stimulus friendly. Then you have the nearterm disruption we have seen in the Economic Data. Withis the tugofwar fixed income where, especially on the long end, i think you are going to keep them pretty contained. It is hard to say you will see a big spike in yields compared to what we expect to see from the fiscal and monetary side over the next three months. Lisa what do you say to all of those people who were at tom thanksgiving zoom talking about inflation . I know that is why he is not here today. How much do you buy into this idea that inflation will run hotter than perhaps the market is expecting, based on the fact that the fed is going to hold rates steady and keep bond buying . You also have potentially more fiscal support, based on janet yellen heading the treasury. Bean again, inflation will a problem at some point. But we dont foresee it over the next at least 12 months because it is very difficult to get an in ationary environment broadbased, sustainable increase in prices. It is very difficult to get that when you have elevated unemployment. Wages are one of the biggest input costs to a company, so it is very difficult to say you can have broadbased inflation pressures. We have an employment where it is. We know it will improve, especially when a vaccine comes out. The issues in the on employment market are also be on that headline number that you can see this friday. It goes into the longterm unemployed. It goes to whether it is a dispersion between the certain levels of the economy that are seeing high levels of unemployment. Those areas, the retail side, leisure and hospitality, these sectors are not going to get much better at any time soon because even with a vaccine on the horizon, the distribution of that wont be broadbased for another 12 months. Those types of measures are going to be under pressure. This is just not going to result in a quick and easy repair in the labor market. It is going to take time for the labor market to repair, so until we really see that broadbased sustainable improvement in the unemployment market, it is very difficult to say we should be worried about inflation right now. Lisa dont mean to interrupt you, to channel tom keene, but going forward, if you are not buying into that reflationary story, does that mean that the russell 2000 and some of these highly Indebted Companies that have done really well over the past month, that thats really cant last unless you get a rejiggering of inflation expectations, as you lay out . Megan part of the rally you have seen in those areas of the equity market have been driven by the fact that they didnt catch up. They lagged behind those big the s pchs, the nasdaq, 500 growth sectors, that people things that into were brought up and still offer some value, regardless of the inflation situation. When you talk about a reflation trade or how to hedge reflation, people look at that in a couple of different ways, and we do here as well. One of the things you can look at it is i should buy tips or i but instead,lls, one of the things we do you like for the long term is just a traditional equity market. Remember, equities should be a good inflation hedge over the longterm. We also like from the private side of the market as well because the private market is not priced as high with a valuation perspective as the public market. You can take opportunities in the private market to try and hedge for longterm inflation pressures. Some of the investments people are looking at purely speculative. We want to have a consistent longterm inflation hedge in their portfolio, and that has historically been the equity markets, but specifically at this time the private equity market. Jonathan megan, nice to catch up. Come back soon, wont you . Looking ahead to next year, the average forecast for the 10 year yield on the bloomberg right now , the average yield forecast is is 1. 20 rend 2021 year end 2021. It is not high, given the optimism of the year ahead. Lisa lisa i have to wonder at one point, if the fed is holding rates where they are, if they increase the duration of their bond purchases at the meeting coming up, how do we understand this idea . They are not going to buy enough bonds to suppress yields in their own right. It is going to be really challenging. This is a lack of inflation story. Jonathan let me ask you what holds the key to the successful yield forecast for 2021. Is it the policy call it the fed, or the fundamentals . Lisa fundamentals, i would argue. Jonathan you think so . I think a lot of people believe yields havent gone up because they think the fed is about to extend the average purchase maturity in the purchase program. Lisa i think you are right, but i think it is fundamental. Jonathan maybe this is the bond market for 2021. I dont believe you have different people who are locked in a room trading bonds, and different people locked in a room trading equities, who say the bond market is trading on this. I get that Asset Classes trade on different things, but generally investors talk to each other sometimes. Lisa separate rooms. Jonathan coming up, jeffrey right, Eurasia Group u. S. Analyst. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. It is the second biggest takeover this year. S p global has agreed to buy ihs markets for 39 billion in stock. Current s p global stockholders will earn a little more than 2 3 of the combined company. The took over will bring together two of wall streets biggest data providers. Bloomberg lp competes with ihs markets and s p global in providing Financial Analytics and information. Moderna will ask for clearance for its Coronavirus Vaccine in the u. S. And europe today. A new Analysis Shows the vaccine was highly effective in preventing covid19, with no serious safety problems. That puts moderna on track to have one of the first vaccines approved in the u. S. A group of opecplus ministers couldnt reach an agreement on whether to delay januarys oil output increase. That leaves the matter resolved before a full meeting of the cartel and its allies today. Bloomberg has learned the uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. The economy is slowing. In fact, the market may be going into reversal already, and we no longer have the targeted emergency packages from facilities, so i expect that we will get more qe from both the fed and the ecb. Both the more qe from fed and the ecb, if you that many people share. A view that many people share. Taking a look at the payrolls estimate, for those of you looking for the outliers, the top of the pile with a punchy estimate. Forom of the pile, looking 100,000. Forrd economics looking 60,000. You do wonder, just a game this out a little bit, if we did get a huge downside to price on payrolls, how people would respond to that given the much brighter outlook for next year already being big then. Lisa people have look past being baked in. Lisa people have looked past the actual bad numbers of the virus spreading. My question is how much fire will this light under congressman bruce in washington to get something Done Congress members in washington to get something done. This could potentially reignite discussions, which could be a positive going into 2021. Pile,an top of the 735,000. In the data through the week, the ism, the pmis, and we week withthe payrolls friday. The s p 500 down by about eight points, 0. 25 off of a huge rally through the month of november. In the fx market, we are on 1. 20 watch for eurodollar. Highsst pandemic shock for the sigel currency before the ecb came out and gave it a slap down for the single currency before the ecb came out and gave it a slap down. Lets get to the story of washington. Congress is back in action. What is the focus . Joins usright now, Eurasia Group analyst. What is top of mind to get together down in washington . This is the only week that the house and senate will be in session probably before the new year, so they have to fund the government. They have to pass an omnibus government funding bill. They may want to do something on stimulus, although i am more skeptical they need to pass a defense policy bill, and they need to have the meeting of the Electoral College that will formally elect Vice President biden as the president. So theres a lot on the schedule. Jonathan lets talk about the fiscal policy in the last several months. This goes all the way back to july. The georgia runoffs hangover this process in any way near the same way that the election hung over this process . Is it something people think about that contributes their approach to fiscal policy because of what is about to happen in georgia at the start of january . Jeffrey it is definitely part of the reason for a delay because both parties can convince themselves that they will get a better deal if they just wait until after georgia is resolved. If they winthink both of those seats, which i think is pretty likely, that they will have a better negotiating position after that. For democrats, it is hard to convince themselves to settle for a half a loaf compared to what they were asking for over the summer, when you still hold out hope that maybe we will win, and then we can write whatever stimulus package we want. Lisa theres a question of a democratic agenda and how cohesive it is with the biden adminstration, given the uncertainty and some of the battles we have gotten word of. Just recently crossing the dow jones newswire, facebook and google are said to be facing new antitrust suits in the United States. How much cloud is there . How much power in the Democratic Party is there to breaking up big tech or coming up with more antitrust issues that could potentially be meaningful next year . Jeffrey this is a place where control of the senate is very important. Even if republicans keep the senate, you will have more energetic antitrust enforcement under a bonded administration then was the case under President Trump a biden adminstration then was the case under President Trump. There are things like legislative changes which would be more concerning for the Tech Companies without a democratic senate. I think it is a mixed picture. I think they are going to continue to face threats under existing laws, but it is a whole new antitrust legislation written with them specifically in mind. Lisa even then, just to take a step back, based on the cabinet picks that biden unrolled over the weekend, it seems like he is taking a pretty centrist approach to the entire administration, a pretty conventional approach to who he wants in his cabinet and how he is going to go about policy. Have we moved past the farleft having more power in the Democratic Party, or do you think we are going to turn back to that narrative, early next year when the election is further in the Rearview Mirror . Jeffrey i dont know that i would put it in those terms. I think what you have seen so far from his picks is that he wants people that he is comfortable with and that most of them had experience in the obama administration. Most of them are in the center of the democrat already. For the most part, the left has not had a big wind in this process a big win in this process so far. No big skill figure has been named to a big job so far, and i think that will probably continue. There is more room for the left to influence thoughts on policy debates because that is really where most of the energy and momentum within the partys right now, is on the left. I think even while they have some losses on the personal front, you are seeing their impact on policy across the board. Jonathan before we let you go, lets sit on policy for a moment, but international policy. Ive heard so much in the last week about what there will be domestically. It is on the International Side they can pull the trigger a lot more easily, and excuse the pun there. It was not intended. We might focus on what be seeing in the next several months. Your view on what is about to happen with the United States and china . On the eu out a piece looking to reset ties with both the United States and europe to address all things china. Do you have any confidence there . Jeffrey i think it dovetails to some extent with what the initial widen approaches going to be, which i think is focused on not so much china and the u. S. Directly for the next four to six months. I think bidens focus is going to be trying to rally u. S. Allies, including europe, japan, and other asian allies to present a more unified front to china, which is something that biden and many of his advisers have been urging trump to do throughout his confrontation with china. Create a larger Multilateral Coalition that can have more influence with chinese leaders than just the u. S. On its own. The fact that the europeans are icused on similar efforts think is meaningful. Jonathan Jeffrey Wright there of Eurasia Group. Good morning. Long side lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg surveillance. Are you frustrated with your weight and health . 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Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. A bit defensive this morning. Futures negative. Nasdaq outperformance. Up about. 1 . Huge upper through november on the small caps on the small caps. Down about. 5 . , 10 yearnd market yields lower than where they started the month. 30 year yields lower than where they started the month. Process that if you start to think about a better outlook for 2020 one. What is going on for the bond market. The 10 year yield this morning up one basis point. The idea the fed comes in, extends the average maturity or the fundamentals, if this hits the bond market, even with 2021 in the reopening trade, is this it . The story before covid, after covid, low rates forever . Switch up the board. Approaching 1. 20. Up. 2 on the session. Last time we got to this line in the sand, the chief economist of the ecb came out and went whack. I wonder if it happens again . We have chinese currency strengthen the mix. I wonder if that gives the ecb more patients than they otherwise would. Lisa you brought up a phenomenal point. The idea that as the dollar weakens, at what point does that to policy in china and in europe . In the meantime, policy and the United States getting clearer because joe biden has announced some of his appointments, including to his economics team. Last week we got janet yellen nominated to be the next treasury secretary, and a number of others to the economics team. Michael mckee joining us now. Who is the main person who stands out to you as shaping joe bidens Economic Policy . Michael it is interesting. There are a number of wellknown people who have wellknown views on the economy. Area. Them in the same the idea of doing more to bring down inequality, empower labor, and stimulate the economy. Who will be primary among equals . Im not sure at this point. We know janet yellen has a good reputation. She is also not a dynamic speaker. Is she going to drive wall street . Is she going to drive members of congress . Deese, somewhat controversial. He seems to be the number one person for the National Economic council. You go to the cea, and sometimes the cea plays a strong role in creating policy and sometimes it is just advice. In the 2009 runup to the american recovery act, chaired bernstein was among those who helped formulate the policy. Ouse is the incoming cea chair. It may be the cea plays a big role. Who will lead all of this is something we will have to see how the personality shakeout. Jonathan we want to talk on the Economic Data quickly. Payrolls friday coming up. What are you looking for this week . Michael the big question for everyone in terms of the adp and jobs report, although the jobs report is old data, is do we see a deterioration in the economy that will put pressure on members of congress to come up with some sort of lameduck assistance to the economy . It seems unlikely given the fact the senate and the house have announced short work periods between now and the end of the year and they have to get a budget passed, they have to get the government funded by december 11. The odds are not great, but if we get bad numbers, maybe that puts pressure on them. Will be watching for that. Jonathan payrolls friday just around the corner. Ryding,us is john Bridge Capital chief adviser. Great to get you back on the program. A good friend of bloomberg surveillance over the years. The nearterm risk. I want to start there. A lot of people factoring the brighter forward outlook and deemphasize nearterm, substantially so over the last couple of weeks. How much damage do we do to the outlook over the next couple of months . John we could do quite a bit of damage. The key thing here is the income support for the 10 Million People or so who have lost their effectivelyebruary evaporates mid to late december. It is six months plus the 13 weeks when they lost their job, or the end of the year program under the cares act disappears. That is about 13 billion a month of household income. From the macroeconomy perspective that is not a huge number because of the savings gone on during the pandemic, which totals about 1. 5 trillion, but not much of those savings will be in those households. Those households will have to cut back on spending. They will be distressed. That is something that could hit demand. Not to the point where we see a negative growth print, but could certainly so slow growth considerably, which we think for the Fourth Quarter is looking 6 real gdp growth. Let me also say, what is important is when we get a virus , and we can get 4 Million People or so who cannot return to work, especially with the upswing in the virus infections we saw through november, those people will need businesses to go back to your that is another area. How much damage can we have to the actual employers in the Small Businesses that employ many of those people. There is real hope over the horizon, six months down the road with a vaccine, but the next few months are going to be quite difficult. Jonathan i am so pleased you started with the disparity beneath the aggregate numbers because the aggregate numbers get talked about too much. Savings are where we do not want them to be. They are in the hands of people with a lower marginal to spend and the people without savings are the people we would like to see the money. Theyre the ones that will go out and spend it immediately. Going forward, if there is any complacency, it is because people have been conditioned by the experience where we snap back so quickly in the recovery in america was much bigger and better than i expected, and many others. There is a belief we going to a small downturn and will come out the other side just as fast. Is there any reason to believe that would not happen . What matters is are the business is going to be there to reemploy people . We have a difficult period in markets where we need to work things out. Commercial rents. What is going to happen . There was a report from new York City Hospitality Alliance a few weeks ago that said 88 of renters commercial renters in new york city cannot make full the rent orment of partial payment of the rent in october. What will happen to those businesses if the accumulated is the accumulated rent burden going to be a major obstacle . Are they going to throw in the towel when the end is in sight . We do not know. That is important. It is not just about demand, it is about businesses who employ those 10 Million People who will be ready and able to go back to work once the vaccine is available. Talk, i think about what Catherine Mann of citigroup was saying. The economy that emerges from covid will look very different because the Biggest Companies have the best chance of survival while the smaller ones have gone out of business at a record pace. I wonder what is the longterm structural economic damage of this swath of Smaller Companies that have gotten wiped out, given the fact they account for so much of the hiring in the United States and elsewhere . Great point. A if you look at the u. S. Labor market, about half of the people employed work with big businesses. The other half work for Small Businesses. We cannot have enough expansion in big Business Activity to employ those people. Small businesses are a part of the entrepreneurial side of the u. S. Economy. I have no doubt that two to three to four years down the road, whatever the damage over the next few months, entrepreneurial america will come back strongly. That is a long time frame for someone who has lost their jobs and does not have the prospect of getting back to employment. The ideas from charles dickens, a tale of two economies. We have a large big tech economy that has adjusted well through , in terms of ecommerce some of the big names have gained business. On the other hand you have Small Businesses, especially in restaurants and the hospitality industry, and some of the Small Businesses Like Airlines which are struggling. I think that is a major priority. If we did not get something done in this lameduck session, the very short lameduck session with a lot to do. If we do not get that done, that has to be the number one focus alongside Vaccine Distribution for the incoming administration. Jonathan great to get your view on the program. Stay well. Send my best to the family. John ryding of brean capital. This is the situation. There is a belief in the Economics Community we can do real damage. Shortterm does matter to the mediumterm. When you come on programs like this and people start to disentangle the shortterm and draw a hard line between the shortterm and the mediumterm, the mediumterm better, the shortterm will look through, the shortterm can weigh on the mediumterm outlook. I know that sounds obvious and very intuitive, but that is not with the conversation is sounding like over the last four weeks. Lisa exactly. That is why i smile when you say intuitive. It has been anything but. The averages mask the reality on the ground. I am glad john ryding highlighted that. The idea of the propensity to spend do not have the money in the bank. That will have an impact. Jonathan if i hear about high savings rate again when that is just the aggregate number the disparity is where the story is in a story that needs to be told. Coming up, dr. Howard foreman of yell university. Futures down 11 on the s p. 1 after ae third of monster rally in november. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. Biggestall streets data providers are joining together. As in be global has agreed to buy market. It is the second biggest deal of the year. It is part of a race for scale. The industrys largest players trying to capitalize on a surging demand for data and analytics. Bloomberg lp, the parent of bloomberg news, competes with formarkets and s p global providing Financial Analytics and information. Bloomberg has learned joe biden will name longterm democratic policy staffer to be his budget chief. Senate republicans could block the nomination because they say here as too progressive. The president s has named his fumigation team that is made up entirely of women his Communication Team that is made up entirely of women. The iranian government posted a statement two days after the assassination of its top nuclear scientist. I ran has blamed israel. Joe biden has made it clear the u. S. Will rejoin the obama era Nuclear Accord if iran returns to full compliance. The credit unit at Blackstone Group is growing shopping for firepower. Bloomberg has learned the alternative asset is set by the alternative credit firm. The firm oversee 7. 5 billion in assets. Deeperws blackstone to a into the world of Investment Grade bonds. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Within 24 to 40 hours after submitting their eua, we have set everything up so we can quickly review those euas and hopefully start sending out vaccines within 24 to 48 hours. Jonathan that was the u. S. Surgeon general speaking to Fox News Sunday before we got the news from moderna they are planning to request clearance for the Coronavirus Vaccine in the u. S. And europe as soon as today. Alongside lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Bad ofn the open,s Socgen Subadra Rajappa of socgen. The focus on what is not happened in this market in november. Lisa the question on whether this is policy or abet on fundamentals not being as strong as people are pressing into the equity market. You cannot miss that. We will be watching. A look at thee Vaccine Distribution. The moderna news accelerating the timeline. Operation warp speed taking more shape. , yaleward foreman joining university. I want to start with operation warp speed and where we are based on the application from moderna, based on what the fda has signaled. When you think we will get a trickle turn into a flood where we get a Critical Mass of people in United States being inoculated . Dr. Foreman i am one of the optimistic people who believe we will see tens of billions of ines starting to be used january, february. We will see some at the end of severalh, at least million. We will see tens of millions starting in january. It is not inconceivable we will have more doses then demand by the time we get to summer. That would be a sort of good thing, but then we have to work on the issue of Vaccine Hesitancy. Lisa lets tease out some of the spirit aside from the teaseside, you lets out some of the spirit aside from the lets tease out some of this. Delivering the inoculation in a timely manner, is that something that concerns you . Dr. Foreman we are all worried about that. The First Tranche of vaccinations are easier for us to do because they will be healthcare workers who work within Health Care Systems and already have an infrastructure and apparatus in place, and they will hopefully be in Nursing Homes and for vulnerable individuals living in institutions, for which we also have an apparatus in place. It is the next step after that we should be most concerned about. We want to get the vulnerable individuals in the community that have suffered so much, the people of color, poorer people, people who have to risk their life every day as an essential worker but not a health care worker, and how do we reach them . That is where it starts getting challenging. Jonathan is the issue lisa is the issue people do not have confidence in a vaccine rushed out, or is the issue there is not the medical infrastructure built into some of those areas, the idea of people having a primary care physician or someone they regularly contact . Dr. Foreman urban areas that have welldeveloped Public Health infrastructure will be in a much better position to do this and i think the fact the federal government has contracted with cvs and walgreens as part of the Distribution Plan bodes well for urban areas. I think getting out to rural areas, and then the issue of Vaccine Hesitancy should concern everybody. We have witnessed over the last several months a schism in this country where some people are adherence of good Public Health practices and some people think is a political statement to give up on all those Public Health practices. We need everybody to want to get the vaccination. Lisa how do you combat that . We have had auntie for years. How do you combat that we xxers for years. Dr. Foreman consistent leadership, it has to be bipartisan. It has to come from the president , from the Vice President , from all Public Health officials and allstate officials. Among redif we look states, there are some red states were the messaging is excellent, there are somewhere in the messaging is not excellent. We have to get over that. We have to get past the partisan divide in our country and get back to a point where everybody is messaging consistent evidence and allowing the public to make a good decision, which in this case is about a vaccine that is veryy effective and has low side effects. Lisa how politically fraught is it for Big Companies to get chunks of doses to distribute to their workforce so they can get back in business . From an Economic Perspective it would help people get back to the office and think his productivity, but is that something that could be a politically difficult thing to swallow, especially in the initial phases of the Vaccine Distribution. Dr. Foreman in the initial phases, certainly, but i think that helps the cause as employers are able to facilitate this, if they mention this in a nonpartisan manner, if they are able to message to their employees this is something they are providing as a benefit and facilitating it, that could be very helpful. Lisa when you think we will reach some sort of herd immunity . Do you think that is the time in the near future when we can start Wearing Masks naturally get together and hug each other . Not me and you . In general. Immunity is herd about me being vaccinated but protecting people who are not vaccinated. Unfortunately that will be a long way off. A lot further off than people realize. Let me point this out. We do not know whether the Moderna Vaccine or the Pfizer Vaccine provides true sterilizing immunity, which is what you need for herd immunity. Herd immunity means i cannot infect you. What we know about these vaccines is they definitely protect against moderate and severe infection, and in both cases protect against death. That is huge for the individual. It does not mean we will achieve herd immunity because it may be the case that half the population that gets vaccinated still gets infected, but they have no symptoms and therefore they may still be spark of still be part of continued infection. We need those answers and they may not come for several months. Lisa dr. Howard foreman of yale university, thank you so much for being with us. People are putting hopes and the vaccines coming out and putting an end to the pandemic that seems to be worsening throughout the United States and around the world. There is a question of what the new normal looks like. It is a question i face every evening when i go home to my children. Taking a look at these markets after recordbreaking month, we are looking at an easing, but definitely not that much. , p futures off the lows earlier down. 2 . 10 year yield sticky at 85 basis points. Not going anywhere. Meanwhile we are seeing the euro breakup against the 1. 19 mark john was talking about earlier, the question of whether the ecb will start to respond. The vix creeping up, but still low. Up, the moderna chairman and cofounder. Do not miss it. This is bloomberg. Its down to the wire, the teams been working around the clock. Weve had to rethink our whole approach. Were going to give togetherness. Logistically, its been a nightmare. Im not sure its going to work. Itll work. I didnt know you were listening. Jonathan from new york and london, for audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. Percent on the s p 500. We begin with the big issue. Closing out a recordbreaking month. A very strong month for risk assets. Global equity markets up 13. 6 . Quite remarkable. You will see the rally continue. A different type of rally. Backandforth trading. Markets are very euphoric. At seen is a game changer. Most people expect it is about the destination regardless of the journey. To see whether the markets will continue to have legs we will have to have confirmation of those vaccine hopes. Jonathan another monday, another vaccine develop and fueling vaccine hopes. Moderna planning
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