Thank you for being with us on this simulcast, Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television worldwide. Tremendous news flow wrapped around the details of a worsening pandemic worldwide, and indeed across this nation. Also looking at markets off the faxing news, futures up 10, dow futures up the vaccine news, futures up 10, dow futures up. New low on the vix as well. Looking at the calendar, everybody is recalibrating. Weve got a major house recalibration of the equity markets out moment ago. Jonathan at Credit Suisse, Jonathan Golub, they have a forecast yearend on the s p for the end of 2021 with a 12 upside. The 2021 forecast is designed to answer what the future will look like in the future. He makes the point at the end of this paragraph that the rotation into the cyclicals will largely be behind us, and they stay overweight on tech, also overweight on the financials. That is just a flavor of where Credit Suisse are at this morning. Tom the conversation forward, and i cant say enough on radio and tv, how we will try to set you up in these Tumultuous Times for what the smartest people we talk to our thinking. I want to rush through this because strict because mr. Auths comments on the equity market are so important. What has your attention . Lisa the dissonance between the higher and higher future expectations for asset prices, particularly large cap equities, with what we are seeing for the bond market, which is very slow growth Going Forward and possibly slower even still as the reality continues to worsen in the here and now. How much of a divergence can there be with big tech in the large caps, with some of the Smaller Companies that are still susceptible to the here and now . Tom what is so important here on a wednesday, jon ferro knowing into planning meanings for the real yield on friday. You have been talking all morning about what is not happening with the yield curve. Jonathan if you are longer financials, you need the bond market to come with you. We havent seen this big move in the treasuries the way you might anticipate. We topped out at 97 basis points. Over since then, and for twostens, the difference between the twostens yield curve, rolled up, then flattened. Tom very good. Right now, steve auth with us with decades of experience on global wall street. Thrilled he could be with us this morning. You and i noted that the great Value Investor ted aronson stepped aside over the week. This is somebody who is in responsiblet value investing, and ted aronson has walked away after an esteemed career. What is the value pain out there right now that mr. Aronson and others have felt . Stephen it has just been a very long hole in the last five years for Value Investors. It has really actually been worse than the late 1990s. You have seen a lot of them throw in the towel. When i get back from my board meetings back in august, at the end of august, i asked my guys, where are we now on this value growth thing . Ofwere at 41 outperformance Growth Stocks versus value stocks in that one year. Outside of any kind of statistical variance. Theres a lot of stocks in that pile that are old economy names that maybe are heading the way of the dinosaur, but there are some pretty wellmanaged companies in there that are starting to take advantage of all of these trends in the new economy, and these stocks, i know lisa has set a few times the market is expensive. You can make that case, but there is an awful lot of very cheap stocks in that pile, and we have come through at historic long period of underperformance. All of the arguments for value in the last 12 months has been reversion to the mean, this cant go on, kind of what i just said. But this time around, youve got a cyclical backdrop here that is extremely powerful, almost historical. That is going to give you a tailwind that we think is going to last at least into next year. I hear golub saying beyond 2021, who knows, because we are not throwing up the Growth Stocks just yet. We hold them back to neutral. Way back in september, we did that. Tom i am trying to take the high road here, and there he is throwing golub under the bus. Steve no, jonathan. [laughter] jonathan lets be really clear what hes doing. Cyclical is neutral. That is the positioning for him going into next year. Cyclical is neutral, financials overweight. You keep the tech overweight. That is what he has been suggesting now, keep that overweight with tech. That is where the tailwind has been. That is where it will be. Walk me through what you have been doing. Then we can talk about why you are doing it. What have you been doing over the last month or so . Steve we scaled back our growth. We have been overweight growth for a long time. Back in september, we took it down to neutral. We have been telling our clients we wouldnt go less than neutral there. We are not that far on that point. These are good, longterm growth competitors. The problem with a lot of these stocks is the yearoveryear comparisons next year are going to be very difficult. They were the only game in town this spring and summer, and now there are other games in town. Thoseof the investors in stocks look to yearoveryear earnings that are going to be difficult. On the others had of the coin, youve got more cyclical tilted companies, i would say the financials, the energy companies, the material stocks, the industrials, even within technology, the chips sector, that are coming back to life in an economy that is yearoveryear just exploding. Lisa to the financials point, lets drill down there because jonathan has been mentioning this point all morning. Can you see financials rally without a commensurate steepening in the yield curve . The bond market is still suggesting growth will be very slow for a long time. Can financials still outperform in that environment . Steve first of all, jon is right. You need the yield curve to expand, and it has been doing so. I think it is very hard to make a daytoday comparison, so over the last week, we have had a pullback in this trade, but if you go all the with back to the beginning of september, you can see the yield curve has, even at this level, it is making lower lows, higher highs in my view. It doesnt move in a straight line. It is toppling moving forward as it digests news about is the economy for real or not in this recovery. People are very worried, for good reason, about the next six to eight weeks. It is going to be a tough time. We saw in the rito numbers yesterday. Nearterm markets reacted to that, nearterm treasury markets very liquid, but dollars to doughnuts, if you go out into the spring, the curve is going to be wider still. It will make another new high. We think the 10 year isnt going to explode to the upside on yield, but we are thinking 1. 20 . Jonathan lets talk about a six week time horizon. [laughter] michael i will try to get out my intertech trader my inner tech trader. Jonathan what would you do now between now and the end of the year . What would you do . Michael i would stick with the trade we have on, which is overweight value stocks, overweight the financials well, kind of neutral financials, but pull up your and istock weightings, think into year end. As you know, i dont know. The next six weeks, you could get some dicing us some diciness. Jonathan you think . Tom hes falling off his breakfast chair. I know steve is new in this business, but you cant ask a route question like that. Jonathan i am just saying, it sounds like a trade for the brave. Great to catch up, as always. Tom i dont know what has gotten into him. Uth ofan steve a federated investors, thank you. Lisa what do you do with that . Do you hold more cash . Do you wait . Do you rearrange things . These are questions that a lot of people are looking at. Tom what amazes me within this likeconversation, it looks a pbs telethon behind me. Youve got five interns right now trying to get a hold of golub to get him on the show. Thank you for that donation. Lisa wait, what . [laughter] jonathan lisa, just to explain, my team on my other property work very fast, so when they heard Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse had a new price target, straight out on the phone. They are making it happen. Lisa are they the ones that also carry you . No, the people that carry him are fully benefited and all that. The people hes got calling our wonderful guests are just interns, paid of course by bloomberg, i should point out. Jonathan keep me out of trouble for just a moment. [laughter] my out is usually lets get to the price action, so lets do that. If you are tuning in worldwide, the good news this morning comes from pfizer. Final analysis of Clinical Trial data showing their vaccine 95 effective. A lift in the equity market, up eight on the s p. Lisa has been beating the drum hard on the last week or so on the bond market. Staye u. S. 10 year, you where you are, tom. [laughter] from london and new york this morning. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Pfizer says a final analysis of Clinical Trial data showed its Coronavirus Vaccine was 95 effective. That cleared the way for the drugmaker to apply for the press regulatory authorization of the vaccine. Pfizer and its partner biontech say the shots protected people of all ages and deafness cities. President has fired a Homeland Security official who contradicted his unfounded claims about election fraud. He is a former Microsoft Official who the president named to a top cybersecurity job. Night, thelast president said his tweets about elections here eddie were highly and i gripped Election Security were highly inaccurate. Wayne countys election board causing national uproar when republican members block certification. State officials have been asked to conduct an audit of some of the countys precincts in michigan that were crucial to joe bidens victory. U. S. Regulators say the boeing 737 max can safely return to the sky. The plane will resume flight after a 20 month grounding sparked by two fatal crashes. It was ordered to make a series of fixes to its bestselling jetline. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. With the virus now spreading at a fast rate, the next few months may be very challenging. We are going back to a different economy. Jonathan fed chair Jerome Powell weighing in and the last 24 hours. I think lisa used the word sobering earlier this morning, and the word of the central bank is not just the fed, but Christine Lagarde very sobering, not getting carried away with the happy talk around the vaccine. It is real progress, but progress for 2021, not the here and now. Lets get to the price action now as we approach the market open. Pfizer, a 95 i is he right, good news. A 95 efficacy rate, good news. On u. S. Tenyear, yields unchanged at 0. 8537 . In crude, the lift continues, 42 a barrel, up 2 . Tom the 30 year bond to four digits, 1. 5 967 . I will cut to the chase. If you are in a city anywhere in this nation, and indeed worldwide, they are empty. At least, the business parts are empty. After decades, like 60 years or something with pwc, he is with macro trend advisors, and this is the interview of the day on empty real estate in those cities. Mitch, i cant get a straight answer. What is the timeline on commercial real estate failure in the spend of . In this pandemic . If you are talking about cities, lets talk about office space, and then retail. I think that office space, and jon mentioned timing for the vaccine, i thing it is all vaccine dependent. By the latter have to the middle of 2021, i think you will see people back in offices. Every person in Office Management i speak to say it all hinges on a vaccine, so that is the timeline. The challenge is the retail is also dependent on foot traffic, people being in the city and in the offices. Retailers cannot wait any longer, so i think we will see ,ore and more for rent signs with no one picking up the number and culling, so i think retail settings have a very big challenge. Lisa especially because people are going to eventually go back to the office, but perhaps not as much, perhaps not at all in some cases. Bill gates yesterday was saying he expects after the pandemic only 30 excuse me, 30 of office space to just disappear. What longterm effect will that have on the value of office . Mitch i am not totally buying into the notion that people are not going to return to the office because i think if you look at our economy, it is a Service Economy largely done in office environments. Obviously it is a big part of our job growth. They need to communicate persontoperson has been nonexistent for a year now, and i think companies have been suffering for it. It may not be politically correct to say it out loud, but i think Companies Really want their people back in the offices. The other thing that is going to happen is when people start coming back to the office, albeit may be voluntarily, it is going to be a political stigma associated with those people who arent coming back. I think you are going to see people back in the offices, but it is a year from now before we see anything that resembles the way it used to be. But i think you will see people back in the Office Despite what some ceos are saying in public. Jonathan do using residential is in time with that timeline you spelled out for commercial, or it is a layer or is it a little bit newer term . Mitch we will pick on new york, for example. Clearly you have seen vacancy levels we havent seen in a decade and a half. 14 ink manhattan was down the last time i looked. It depends on people coming back to work. When the new crop of college kids graduates this spring and start their jobs, assuming those are in the cities where they were, that they interviewed virtually for, or they are going to be working back in the office, or some days in the office, those kids are going to respect to the cities. The reason is because they got a lot cheaper than they were a year ago or a year before that. I think you are going to see a wave of demand that is going to apartments in cities like new york, but longterm, there was a price reaction, and it is going to take maybe five years to get back to where it was. Tom if theyre going to be a refinancing of commercial real estate . Is it an easy process to restructure a given skyscraper, or is there going to be a value reduction in that skyscraper . Mitch i have been through enough cycles and seen enough bankruptcies. If the revenue isnt there, and there is a need for restructuring, there will be whoever is at the bottom of the Capital Stack who feels the pain, it is likely going to happen if we see rent not being paid. We are seeing that in the retail sector, not necessarily in the Office Sector because even though the space is vacant, they tend to still pay rent. It would really have to be driven by Office Tenants being unable to pay their rents before we would see it. Tom what are the flavors of Real Estate Investment trust is a broad category . How do they favor through all of this . Is it opportunistic, or are they scared stiff . Mitch if we leave out the cannabis ones, which are different from the others, i think the challenge is they are often bought by investors as a fixed income alternative, so they behave like bonds in some respects. But right now, they are all being thrown in the same basket and saying real estate bad. I do think there are some opportunities in that space, especially in warehouses. In retail reads, not the place to be. Some of the ones that were banged up pretty bad but have a great portfolio is tenants underlying it. But i would look at the warehouse ones and the apartment ones because i think they have been oversold. The longterm fundamentals are there and the cash flow is there. Jonathan great sound quality, mitch, with his own radio microphone. [laughter] mitch Everybody Loves my microphone. Yeti. 35, it is the blue it is not blue. Funny story, i sent my son to staples to go get it, and he called me from staples because i told him to get the blue yeti, and he was looking for a colder. [laughter] at least he knew what i yeti was. He wasnt looking for the abominable snowman. But it is awesome. Every sound tech always come womans me on my sound. I strive for always compliment me on my sound. I strive for perfection. Rishel, mitch roschelle, thank you. I might move back into your building, tom. I would move into the floor above you or something. There,mean, in a walk up we are like, seventh floor, so you may want to go up higher. Lisa did you take up tap dancing, too . Jonathan i think it is a good idea. Or drumming. Tom for everybody worldwide who doesnt see it, jon is beloved within the keene manse. Every day, the people are like, wheres jon . Jonathan im loved in that building. I might becoming back to the building. You would like that, wouldnt you . Tom i will say hello to my wife. 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Finaluity rate in the trial coming from pfizer. A bit about performance on the small caps. Lisa has been talking about this through the week, lets talk again. In the bond market, where are you not getting the moves . Treasuries. The curve is flatter. Down a basis point on 30 year. Unchanged on 10 and a little lift on two. The curve has done that and has been doing that the last week. Foreignexchange, this is it is just doing this is interesting. Dollar weaker, euro stronger. We are thinking about the light in the sand, 1. 20. You have to throw in china. Eurochina has had a 5 or 6 move since the end of july. Ckes of socgen made the point that takes a little pressure off of the ecb to respond to eurodollar because the chinese currency is the pressure valve, the shock absorber for the dollar weakness. Renminbi 6. 56. Another day of renewed strength in the yuan. It is good to speak to dean curnutt of macro risk advisors. He has been right. Of 41 and down with better stock markets. Dean curnutt pointing out election uncertainty and that would clear. We see that with 21. 98 on the vix. Have we cleared all of the election uncertainty . Dean for the most part. If you stare at the s p option prices by expiration you can see something pretty granular. You can look at december 31. At the end of the year, that is typically a quiet week between christmas and new years. That implies volatility is low. You can go up to january 8 and see there is a bump up. The date between those two expirations, january 5, the georgia runoff date, that does have some consequence. Lisa can we zoom out. Thee been talking about bank of America Survey that came out yesterday. We are hearing about how people are expecting disturbances over the next couple of weeks and months as people calibrate themselves and their outlooks to the near term reality of a pandemic that is worsening. What do you foresee based on the bullish trends in the market that you track, the technical factors . How much of a pullback could we get . Dean it is anyones guess. It comes down to the response from the government. What we have to worry about is whether the congress pulls off a stimulus or not. For is the the weak spot the market is the politics of it. Tom dean curnutt with us right now. Housing statistics are out. The economy certainly repositioning and housing. Let me get that up, with a constructive revision on housing. I will not give you too much of the data, other than to say month over month it is a strong beat on Housing Starts, and critically, the previous month was a huge revision upward. Not so much moving the bond market, but again that does copart america. America struggling and all that two part america. The median estimate 3. 2, the revision of the previous month 1. 9 , the upward revision 6. 3. That is Housing Starts. This has been a solid part of this economy, the housing sector. It is done terrifically well. Low rates people are spending on their houses. Home depot to the moon. A great story for the 2020. The small caps. Lets talk about the story that has not worked and is starting to work, the cyclical part of the market. Walk me through the trend and whether that is durable. That has been the debate, how durable some of these moves have been. Dean that is obviously on peoples minds and a question we feel quite frequently was an epic move in factor rotations. People are calling it a move from growth to value and people are asking, is that an indication of how proud the space has been in terms of positioning and things like growth in the under positioning in value. There is something to that. The other part is we have pricing in the market that reflects an unusual and unprecedented consequence. We knew when the vaccine announcement came we would have a big rotation. The question around value and the old economy type of stocks, i think it is an important one. I think we have a permanently changed economy in a lot of ways but we are slowly coming back, and when i sit back and look at the broad picture of risk i see option prices we were expecting normalization close to the election, but i see them as something you can utilize in your portfolio, and more on the short side of the long side. These option premiums are the last war for the fed to push lower. They crushed fx volatility, they crushed rate volatility. That was a major part of how they had to restore market functioning back into the march lows. You still have high option prices as we start 2021. I think you can use them as an income generating part of your portfolio. Jonathan i want to pick up on the word you used, normal. Prepandemic there was nothing normal about the low volatility we were in with the vix down towards 10. Right now at 21. What is normal and what you think is the normal we need to get used to . Dean i am thinking a lot about the postcrisis period. We had the aftershocks of the flash crash in 2010 at the euro zone crisis in 2011 and 2012, and then we have this long period where the economy was clearly normalizing, but behind the push towards trying to get the labor market back on its in townd policy stayed much longer than you would have thought. , it normalization in the vix will call it 2012 to 2016, you had an average mix of 15 for that period. I think that is my playbook. You have a crisis, you have an asset shop, you have a massive policy response, each time it gets bigger and bigger. Even as people argue maybe we do not need as much on the fit guardrails as we have during the crisis, the guardrail fails. Ultimately those guardrails work on the real economy, but what they impact is asset prices. They have impacted fx ball and taken Interest Rate volatility to the low and it is just equity volatility that still stands out as something that has normalization into 2021. Lisa ive been struck by the recent volatility and how it upended a lot of want funds that have posted start returns based on the fact you cannot plan for fiscal bill that is or is not past. You cannot necessarily plan for a fed response based on that news. Has the old model been completely upended . Dean i think you could make that argument that the notion of the carry trade is a very difficult one to keep pursuing in the sense that we know there is risk premium in markets. There are sources of returns and some of the quant funds more volatility oriented strategies have targeted, but when you get these unusual factors, this year being so unusual, it makes the sharpe ratio of a lot of these strategies compromised. Tom very quickly. Images from berlin of water cannons. This started out peaceful early this morning. With that image you cannot see it on Bloomberg Radio. It is crowds assembled in berlin. Moments ago there was substantial use of water cannons. There it is. I will call it a more distressing situation. Dean curnutt, your world seem so removed from pandemic agony. Are you surprised by that . 2021 is going to be challenging in the sense the social aspects of the pandemic the policyting and response creates additional dislocation in terms of the haves and havenots. It will be tricky, especially as we transition to the new administration and one that wants to reembrace globalism. There a lot of uncertainties. I think geopolitics has been more bark than bite. We always have to keep in i on the types of things markets tend to forget over time. We cross Different Things off our worry list, but often times there are things we cannot predict. Even as we said use volatility, use options on the short side to try to generate premium, we have to be on guard for the types of things that can go wrong. What do we learn . We learn that over time, especially during the good times, we underestimate the jump to illiquid conditions, the speed to which markets can turn very illiquid very quickly. That is the key lesson for 2020 and something, as we talk to our clients at the back end of an incredible year, just to be prepared for the unexpected. Jonathan a record high on the stock market in february, month before we lock things down in inrica, and a record high the stock market as things are locking down again. Not the same way but it is similar. Dean curnutt, macro risk advisor ceo. There is always something to worry about. There is always downside risk. Right now, theres a lot to worry about in the near term into year end. Media changeshe different. In 19741975 there was a slow down into the market. Back then we did not have the media onslaught, the social media onslaught. Futures up five, they pull back a little bit. Right now on temperature, because the physics, the thermodynamics of all of this vaccine talk is about temperature, keeping vaccine safer transport, making them efficacious up to the point of injection. Joins us withaas your back of germany with curvac of germany. How do you react to one vaccine in an unimaginable 90 degrees fahrenheit and another one being refrigerated . How does that occur . Depends how you are working with the mrna, how you are stabilizing the rna, and manufacturing the rna. Point where ity could make a difference. Rna fore holding on the all of our vaccines, we have a rabies vaccine which is already in the clinics for a while. The properties that you can have are pretty stable. That is on the target by target. We have to reevaluate again, and with the covid19 vaccine candidate we have an extended procedure. Within three months. Tom you see it within three months. The vestry the mystery to our viewers and listeners is almost all the way back to the 1950s. I remember the liquid nitrogen and doctors offices. Is that what we will head back to, the metal containers with the smoke coming out . Franzwerner i dont think so. We have a stability of the covid19 backs encampment already at three months come up to three months minimum. It will be extended because all that we do is realtime. You have to see that now the rna vaccine, not only in our hands but also the hands of the others, this is brandnew. We can make a difference. The development of this ability will increase and will get better and better over time. This is something we have to work on, and we will. Can you give us a sense of your timeline of how quickly we think manufacturing could get ramped up and Distribution Channels could get solidified so we get a Critical Mass of people immunized against the virus . We are mrna manufacturers, not only developers, but also manufacturing, because this is what you need since 2006. You always do according to what you have in the pipeline. What is the need you have the capacity for . When we started with our fourth product line, which is an industrial scale, nobody was believing you need this big scale. Certainly nobody knew we were talking about covid19. Since the beginning of this year, all of this capacity, which is going to be built up,nd as we are building this up not only at curevac, but also others, this is mrna capacity that stays beyond covid19 and will be a part of the preparedness because there will be other viruses and rna can make a difference. For that, the capacity is there. You cannot get from zero to 100 with any minute. Hashe moment what we see steeled up worldwide globally. There will be enough capacity to vaccinate the world until the end of next year. Mrna when you talk about and the potential differences between the vaccines, tom keenes eyes light up and his ear perk up as he tries to imagine the sequencing. Most peoples eyes glaze over. They do not know the difference from one vaccine to another. They talk about how it is important to have multiple vaccines. Does it complicate the issue . Who gets what and why is that important . Franzwerner we will see. This is what we are doing. It is all in real time. If you compared to other vaccines and other strategies in the past, so whatever was the real world in the past, this has to accelerate without bringing any concession to the safety of the vaccine. You have to see it target by target. This is covid19. What it does to the immune system, how long the protection will be. This is all to be seen. Are runners, there not only mrna but also protein based. We will have to see how long is the protection level, the memory of fact, and what does it do to different immune systems of people with indications, respiratory indications. Aswill find out what we see most of the vaccines have different properties, and then certainly for the different needs. Therefore it is good to have more than just one vaccine in order to see what is most appropriate for which kind of target population. Tom thank you so much for joining us. Wernerarehouse france haas of curevac. Right now it is about big pharmaceutical at the end of the day, that can beat glaxosmithkline as well. Here is emme walmsley. Have three vaccines in the clinic with others, hasuding that Technology Proven to work on all of the people and is a more effective way to get stale manufacturing, wastage which is the other challenge. We need to provide up to 14 billion doses if we are a two does vaccine to protect the world. Right now, David Rubenstein with us. Peertopeer conversations. He will drive this conversation forward. What did you learn . David despite the fact there have not been as many headlines as pfizer or moderna, the largest manufacturer of vaccines is actually glaxosmithkline. It is the only Pharmaceutical Company of any size in the world that is led by a woman, emme walmsley. A british woman. She ran the Consumer Health care business at loreal and was then recruited to run gsk. She is now running the pharmaceutical business. Millionduce roughly 200 doses of vaccine a day. They have more than 30 vaccines they produce around the world. 40 of the children in the world get their vaccines from gsk. A very impressive company, though it has not gotten as much attention as him of the other ones in the news. Tom i agree with you on that. I am in that camp where i think it will be the other people who get the attention. From your conversation with her and with all of your contacts, is this going to be a messenger solution, orience will the more traditional vaccines be part of the pandemic solution . David i think it is going to be the messenger rna, and the synthetic ones. The reason is normally with a vaccine, it takes a long time to grow a vaccine and get the virus to grow. We do not have that much time. Normally the vaccine take seven years to develop. The shortest ever has been four years. The Development Takes a long time to grow the bacteria you put into the vaccine. It is typically live germs. The polio vaccine has have live germs from polio. That is a much more complicated process and we do not have the time for it. The techniques gsk is using with their partner is something called adjutant dna. It is a synthetic type of process. I think it is the synthetic ones that people will be using. The problem is not so much we will get a vaccine that works, i think we will get vaccines that work. The problem is distributing them. It is not that easy. You have to refrigerate these and typically they take booster shots, so you have to have two shots and therefore if you have 7. 5 billion people, you need 15 billion. That is a lot of time. How will you distribute them to the emerging markets . Who will get it first. Is it going to be the business people, the private equity people . It will be health care workers. People with health problems. Itll be a long time before the average person get some of the vaccines. We are looking at this until the third and Fourth Quarter of next year before everyone who wants a vaccine gets one. Lisa i like to look at the gloom and doom but i want to switch gears and be optimistic because we all need 2020 to be over. As an investor, i wonder what euro cents is of all of the money that has been pumped in i wonder what euro cents is of all of the money i wonder what your sense is of all the money that is been pumped in, has it jumpstarted a renaissance in the biotechnology world . David absolutely. We have not seen anything like this since the Space Program or the manhattan problem. We are putting out staggering money and i think it will produce a revolution in biotech and it will be good for our health care system. In the immediate future, people are focused on getting the vaccines cured one of the challenges we have is a lot of people are afraid of taking them. They think it has been politicized and a lot of people do not traditionally like vaccines. We have to make sure virtually everybody gets it if it is going to have an effect. Lisa based on your experience as an investor, given the fact there is concern about distribution and people taking it and how long this could get rolled out, how much do you factor in the here and now, the pain we are seeing with the cases escalating to your longerterm investing horizons and outlook . David we have been going through a biotech revolution since dna was discovered in the 1950s. It has taken off in the last 10 years, the last two or three years youre seeing enormous advances in this area and investors are putting more money in this then they have ever done before. I think it is incredible opportunity. Moderna is a relatively new company, has not had anything approved by the fda, and now has a market cap of 35 billion. People want to put money on the hope they will produce vaccines and other products that work. People hope they will. Tom thank you so much. David rubenstein from peertopeer and a very busy wednesday. On peertopeer conversation at 9 00 tonight. It is an extraordinary day. The breaking news flow coming in along with all of this. I will go back to the arch issue, which is a for the nonfancy people. It is a mystery where that is. Lisa especially given the fact you have a number of these pandemic related relief programs expiring in the next couple of months. This is critical. We talk about the savings glut, but that is not evenly distributed. The people in the lower income brackets are running out of cash. You cannot keep a restaurant open if people do not want to sit outside in 30 degree weather eating. This is a conundrum as we head into the winter. Tom we are already seeing that today. One of the second coldest days so far in new york. We are experiencing that, as i am sure many of you are. The other thing i see is economic data, Housing Starts were pretty good. Fascinating to get to the first week of december and that critical jobs report. Lisa especially that retail sales came as a disappointment yesterday. Housing has been the standout of economic data. It has continued to go gangbusters as people move out of cities and into bigger homes. If you look at the u. S. Citigroup surprise index, it has actually fallen the lowest since june. People are highball in the economy more often then lowballing the economy. It highlights how quickly moving this economy is, how hard it is to pin down. Tom im glad you bring that up because it is a partition of the economy. Ham brought that up yesterday, where we see rents in the cities and suburbs ebbing away. Let me set up the day for you. The Bloomberg New Economy Forum ongoing with a lot international perspective. Gideon and have of the thernational International Monetary fund with important conversation. Later the south african president will join at 10 00 as part of the discussion. That will be a timely discussion. One of those currencies where people are looking at finally appreciation within the emerging space. , buthe pacific rim nevertheless it is there. 1874 an ounce. Futures up ever so slightly. 123. Utures up stay with his on bloomberg stay with us on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Good morning. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. Futures advancing. 2 . We begin with the big issue. Restrictions piling up on infections surging across the united states. Pennsylvania putting restrictions on travelers. Virginia, utah, north dakota issuing new mask mandates. This is illinois announces new curves affecting jims, hotels, restaurants, retailers, and more. The Covid Task Force issuing a warning to the administration saying efforts to flatten the spread were inadequate and more efforts must be taken to flatten the curve. Democratic leaders sending letters across the aisle proposing a return to the negotiating table. The time to act is upon us like never before. The two sides remain far apart with mitch
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