Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

We welcome all of you to an onraordinary friday morning Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. It is jobs day. We will look at the state of this pandemic economy at 8 30. But we will also begin to see substantial count and returns from these key states of georgia and pennsylvania. Jonathan really tight races in places like georgia and nevada, tightening in arizona and pennsylvania. That is the focus for market participants. I would go one step further. Also a focus on the senate. A reporter a little while ago said it wouldnt be a blue wave, it would be a blue mist if we got a 5050 in the senate with a Biden White House. That would really change the story. Then youve got to reshape the narrative of the past couple of days that have been driving this market. Tom we will get to the data here as we move along. Futures, 38. The dollar a little bit weaker. Gold up 50 over the last number of days. Michael holland scheduled to be with us on the market. I am still trying to find an entry point. We have been getting dribbles in gorgeous. In georgia. In waves of just a bit pennsylvania. At some point we will get a wallop of results, particularly from pennsylvania. Jonathan if it is not pennsylvania, it is somewhere else. If youve got arizona in the column for biden right now, then some other state would take them over the line. If you dont have arizona in the column, what happens if he gets to 270 because youve given him arizona . Do people start to make the call . Does he come out and do an except in speech . Or does he wait . What happens there . Tom it is one of the scenarios. As people say, mr. Trump has a pretty narrow path, and mr. Biden has a little more optionality. Lisa abramowicz come on the job economy and what Ellen Zentner told us of morgan stanley, is the Unemployment Rate really just under 8 . I dont buy it for a minute. Lisa this is a very narrow measure. The improvement we are expected to see in about a halfhour is going to diminish as covid continues to spread. I will say, jon mentioned that next week, how quickly will it be that the pandemic is front and center . The answer is very. We are seeing a Record Number of cases in the likes of ohio, michigan, indiana. At what point do we hit peak capacity for some of the icu beds that lead to new lockdowns . That will have a crippling effect on a lot of the aspects of the job Market Recovery. Tom out on twitter last night from the swiss government, i saw a beautiful moving chart of the hospitalization ratios in switzerland, and it was truly shocking and really pretty grievous, as we see those lockdowns, which we barely touched on today. Right now, he deserves to be in lockdown. Kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. Im going to go again to your pennsylvania skill. Why are we talking about pittsburgh . Kevin that specifically is where joe biden could pick up some key votes that would push him over the threshold, but secondly, i was just looking at the front page on my cell phone of the erie times news. Above the fold, biden overtakes trump in erie county. Local officials are saying to have a small thanksgiving. I bring this up because erie county was one of the three counties that President Trump carried in 2016, that he flipped in the keystone state against hillary clinton. Biden now flipping back right now about very slim margin. Late last evening, erie county, pennsylvania, and it is in the front pages. It might come down to georgia, where just before i got on there, i looked at the tally, and biden has overtaken trump in 0. 02 . By georgia is fascinating because, as jonathan just alluded, this could be a Runoff Election in the senate race in georgia, and all of the republicans and democrats might need to be turning out for the polls. This as the president is raising concerns that he feels so far, no evidence was presented a allegations. Meanwhile, this just out, Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell put out on twitter that here is how this must work in our great country. Every legal vote should become to. Any illegally voted ballots must not. All sides must get to observe the process, talking about some of the legal challenges. When will we have a definitive sense that the result will hold, given the fact that we are looking at a scenario right now with many legal challenges, as well as recounts that are potentially on the deck for georgia, given how close it is . Kevin based upon the chronology of state officials on the ground in all of the battleground states, i would anticipate that we are still at least 24 hours away from that happening, and there i say we could even be in a situation on monday or tuesday of next week. I dont want to get too far ahead of it, just in the sense that we are carefully tracking all of the data coming in. But to your point, what Senate Majority leader mcconnell just articulated in that statement measured statement that republicans are also having to navigate. When youve that got 69 to 70 million americans casting a ballot for President Trump, even should he lose, that is still a large percentage of americans who backed him, and as a result of that, the Republican Party is having to be measured and how they navigate this. Tom to me of the sylvania and mcconnell of kentucky to me of pennsylvania and mcconnell of kentucky and basically said to the president , stop it, right . Kevin i would not characterize it that way. Others have come out a bit more aligned with the statement you just made. Soon to be former representative rigell meant lost a primary several months ago, but he is a republican from rural virginia. He was critical in tweets of the president just within the last 24 hours. Also, congressman Adam Kissinger , another republican, is a rising star within the Republican Party. He is a veteran as well. He came out and urged caution in terms of how the president is speaking. I would anticipate that this is going to be a new divide of sorts for every republican that has to answer to the next 24 to 48 hours. This is because important, senator chris coons from delaware, joe biden mentioned his name on election day. People like tony blanca and, for example, all of them quietly, based upon my reporting, continuing to have conversations bidenidens campaign, and also having some meetings with his transition team. That aspect of this story is also quickly evolving. Campaign alsoump continuing to make actions. You could have a situation where the president starts firing people, etc. Tom thank you so much for the perspective. We are going to segue now to Michael Holland of holland and company, a longterm investment perspective. He is watching the recount to see if the nasdaq will go up another 10 in four days. What do you do here . Youre the only when i booked two actually remembers 1960. What do you do here to get beyond this election . Michael back to where we were last week when you had me on, and the market was tanking from some other fears. Set dont just do something stand there. In other words, take it easy. Take a deep breath. I listened to you buff humans ago before the show started here , with an expert talking about the Supreme Court getting involved. It looks as if on the legal side, the market isnt going to have anything significant to worry about. The speck from some early republicans would indicate that. I think, as lisa was saying, we have covid and the condemning to worry about next week. In that case, there are three things the market is worried about. The vaccine is going to come. The fed is going to be there at the most important part of this puzzle. They are going to continue to support the economy. For the stock market, things are going to be ok. The last thing is we will get some sort of stimulus because there will be some coming together of the two sides, may be smaller than it would have been otherwise come of the afraid of radical moves economically and tax wise. We are not going to get those because of the strong outpouring for republican voters. Some of the things in the market right now are crazy. , 19. 70t a little bit at the start of the crazy market. We had this extreme valuation for the tech stocks and some of the other stocks, and the rest of the market. That will reverse some time in our lifetimes, but right now that is not something to worry about. Thats all i have for you. Jonathan what is the evidence of worry in this market this week . Any asset class . Daniel no, gridlock is beautiful is what the market is saying right now. To the extent the Federal Reserve is going to be there, Jerome Powell has thrown the security blanket around the market, and i think the gridlock that has come about from the 80 million or whatever it is voters on the republican side has an extreme movement in washington that has dissipated. We do have the situation where you have wonderful stocks like jp morgan trading at a 13 times multiple and 3. 5 yield, and there are the things out there you can buy today even if people get a little bit worried. Jonathan no one was saying this month ago, the gridlock is beautiful. Michael holland there. Chris harvey of wells fargo two days ago. But here we are. Gridlock is beautiful, apparently. Tom i guess it is. I look at the equity markets now. We have jobs in 18 minutes as well. You mentioned jp morgan in the banks. When is the when . When do they go . Michael the great news is you and i have been in this business long enough, we know that nobody when, but we know the what. The valuely within stocks, they have financials. If we get some peace and quiet to some extent because of the gridlock in washington, the banks are going to be a place you have wished in november of 2020 you would have put some significant money in. The best of the breed is jp morgan, trading at a ridiculously below valuation. Lisa what is the covid story that is tradable at this point, given how it is worsening . Michael that is interesting. As things are coming under pressure, i think that whatever reverses lets play a game here. You and i are going to say that ao months from now, we have very successful vaccine in significant production, and looks like it is going to get distribution. What is the snapback when you get that kind of certainty . In addition to the obvious things of health care and so on, that could be a trigger for the stayathome big tech stocks to the flipside. I am lousy at shorting, so i wouldnt short the stocks, but that could be a time when they start doing opposite day maneuvers. I would say that anything that benefits from a successful vaccine introduction, i would say the great industrial stocks would probably be in that category. You would probably get some minor infrastructure lows and infrastructure legislation from washington that would help. Jonathan michael, great to catch up, as always. Appreciate your time. Michael holland of holland and company, thank you. I am really nervous about assigning these stories the price action of the last several days and extrapolating things out a week, a month, three quarter six months a year. We are on such a nice edge in places like georgia right now. In pennsylvania, this is not done. It ton fox news giving Vice President joe biden. Others have not done that. If you look at different , the narrative we are talking about right now, divided government is beautiful. All of that good stuff. That could turn around in the next 24 hours. . Hen what tom we just got new numbers on georgia. I actually get out the pen and do some math. But i go back to this, sometime this morning, probably during the open, look for that on Bloomberg Television in the 9 00 hour. We are going to get maybe they will save it for the real yield. Jonathan no real yield today. Tom are you kidding me . Jonathan tom keene would be running to the studio to wrestle the microphone away from me to have that moment. Tom i have two hours a day, and you cant do the real yield . Jonathan what do you want me to say . You want to real yield today . Tom this is unamerican. Maybe it is unbritish. Lisa look at those markets. Jonathan coming up, James Glassman, j. P. Morgan chase had economist. Futures down 32, down 0. 9 . This is bloomberg, live on radio and tv. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tightening biden is his hold on the race for the white house, now taking the lead in georgia. He also leads in nevada, and is catching up to President Trump in pennsylvania. Biden is closing in on the 270 electoral votes needed for an election when. Win. Id hes election he says he has no doubt that he will be the winner. President trump prance would trump promised lawsuits in four states, despite no evidence of illegal voting. Fed chairman Jerome Powell chairman Jerome Powell says that more fiscal and monetary support is needed because of rising Coronavirus Infections to threaten the economy. Policymakers agreed to maintain their bond buying at the current rate. In france theres been a Record Number of new coronavirus cases. Authorities reported more than 68,000 new infections, and the Government Health minister warns that there is what he called a violent second wave of the disease. France started a second locked last week. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. I think we will have a stronger recovery if we can get some more fiscal support, when it is appropriate, and in the size congress thinks is appropriate. It is good to let the systems of our doctors he do their jobs. The systems do their jobs. Jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action. A real struggle to understand the price action this week. You reach for the comfort of a for a nice narrative of what is happening. Market, dollar still weaker. Eurodollar, 1. 1869. We are dealing with changing probabilities, moving targets. I think it is worth it to emphasize there are still these narrow avenues to a whole range of outcomes down in washington. A divided government with President Trump still in the white house and a split senate. You could have a situation where you have President Trump in the white house and republicans still controlled the senate. That is still on the table right now. You can have what has been described as that blue mist. [laughter] lisa i love that. Jonathan the base case at the moment is that you have a Biden White House and a republicancontrolled senate, but it is worth pointing out that the counting continues. It is not clear who has got the momentum and where, and it is not uniform. You can have a situation where biden has momentum in a place like pennsylvania. Can you say the same thing about nevada and arizona. Right now, i dont think you can. Tom particularly in arizona, although ricky davis talks up Maricopa County is giving us amazing data. What is really important within your observation is the percent of votes left to count up in each state. In arizona, they have a much bigger gap than in georgia and pennsylvania. We will have all of that for you in the next hour. Right now, James Glassman joins us. He has a unique position at the j. P. Morgan chase bank in commercial banking as head economist. Know when i know listens to america and American Labor economics better than jim glassman come out of northwestern. I want to rip it up today. I dont want my new i dont want my new shall i dont ae on the jobs report. In the book the rise and fall of american growth, are we jeopardizing growth with this election upset . Think so. Ont we may be divided, but we have common interests, and it is in our interest to figure out how to get more energy in the u. S. Economy. Some of the loss of momentum in the u. S. Is all related to our demographics. Some of it is related to productivity. Productivity, we are learning, is giving people businesses giving peoples business is a lot of options. Gordon,say to bob interesting idea, but i think it is a little early to write off americas growth potential. I think the challenges weve had with fiscal policy are going to focus is more focus us more on what they learned to do in the debt burden was also as high. What they did back then was they brought that debt burden way down relative to the size of the economy because we had an economic boom. That is what we need, and i think when we get this behind us, we are going to focus more on the kinds of things, infrastructure investment, immigration reform. I will let the private sector keep going on developing technology. I think we are going to find that there is going to be much more understanding of what it takes to counter what bob is worrying about. Lisa in the meantime, we have the pandemic that continues to worsen, particularly in the midwest. It looks likely that there will be increasing restrictions. That is a difficult term to use, but increasing restrictions at some of these icu beds that philip as some of these icu beds fill up. James you worry that a number round of lockdowns another round of lockdowns would lead to problems like we faced this spring. We may get there on a localized basis, but keep in mind there is a clock running on getting that vaccine out. We are getting real close to getting something, so hopefully we will get a grip on it. Personally, for all of the upheaval in the labor market, i think it is Pretty Amazing what is going on because the labor market has been improving, and if you look at the number of insured unemployed people, that has dropped 4. 5 million since the september survey. What these data are telling us is for all of the stresses and upheaval, the market is making a comeback. We are not going to get there until we get the vaccine and we feel comfortable flying. That is slowly beginning come but if you are right that there is a whole new wave coming and we have to start thinking more about lockdowns, that would be a problem. We faced that in the spring. Congress did a good job dealing with that crisis. I am pretty sure that if that was a new danger that we face, we would find a way to resolve that until we get the medical answer. How dependent is your outlook for 2021 on a vaccine . It sounds like it is massively dependent on just that. James i think we have made a lot of progress recovering some of the ground we lost. I think it is pretty likely. That must be what is going on in the equity market. It is pretty likely that within weeks, within months, we are going to have something that will allow us to start thinking about getting back to normal. It wont take much to get back. We have done a good job getting through this. I think all of our tools are being focused on trying to get the economy back to where we started. I think it is important to thing about what the starting point was because what we learned was the u. S. Economy running at 3. 5 unemployment is sustainable. That is guiding the thought process at the fed, which i think helps. We know where we need to be. We know this is not anyones fault. We are going to deploy all of our tools trying to get there. Jonathan great to catch up, jim glassman. The payrolls out in five minutes. Estimate is for a hundred thousand, and that is the first time i have mentioned that number. In 90llar swiss, a break at 0. 8994. We have not been down here since january 2015. Iny of you were a member january 2015. I believe that is when the swissie went flying. We an hour and 25 minutes have been on air. That is amazing, jon. [laughter] jonathan well done. You did some work this week. For goodness sake. From london and new york, this is bloomberg. Jonathan jobs report in america 10 seconds away. Tom keene would like you to focus on average hours worked. He believes the much in himself he thinks he has move the number over last month. The estimate 518,000. The numbers drop right now. Lets bring in michael mckee. Michael here we are with the change in nonfarm payrolls of 638,000, a little better than we saw in the consensus forecast, but not as good as the prior month of 661,000. Have to look for the revisions. The Unemployment Rate declines to 6. 9 , a notable drop. That is down from 7. 9 . A full percentage point drop during october. A lot of people who were off work because of covid have now regained employment, although we have to check and see what happened in terms of the overall number of people who were employed and in the labor force. I am looking for those numbers and will get that in just a second. Labor force Participation Rate improves. 3 to 61. 7 . That could also be considered good news. More people into the labor force. The number of people who work parttime for economic reasons increased. That is not the best news. We also want to look at the on employment rates for major worker groups. 6. 7 for men and 6. 5 for women. 6 , 10. 8 for blacks, 6. 7 for asians and 8. 8 for hispanics. As i go through the numbers, we can see what has happened in the establishment numbers. Job gains in leisure and hospitality increased 271,000. It does suggest a lot of people in the bar and Restaurant Industry went back to work. Retail edit 104,000 jobs. We do get a little bit of christmas hiring in october and some of the retailers who may have been closed coming back. That may have added to that. 84,000, the, biggest number in quite some time. It is good news because we are seeing Housing Construction and they had been finding difficulty. One more, manufacturing, up 38,000 on the month. Still 621,000 jobs fewer than we had in february but moving in the right direction. Tom i will give you 12 seconds to dive further into data. Givehan ferro, you have to a data check. You are doing it better than me. Jonathan long end of the curve freight curve is where you get the pivot. Oak at the front end of the hinge. 10 year yield up three basis points to 80 basis points. Price action elsewhere muted. Equity futures with a 90 bounce. 21 of the session. That is the story into the bond market. Where is the momentum of the labor market . What is the outlook like . Tom that is right where i want to go. With movement in the bond market, i think we should see the real yield this afternoon. What is so important is off the shock of the pandemic, are we in noise or are we in trend . Of you delineate a trend out data or is it still pandemic noise . Michael bartender, give him another. At this point it is hard to incern a numerical trend terms of will we see this increase or that increase. Obviously we have slowed in terms of growth. E are picking up jobs the problem is we are still very much below where we were in february before the pandemic started. We were Something Like 10. 5 million below, so maybe somewhere around 10 million jobs fewer than we had. Still a long way to go before a lot of people get jobs back and that leaves us in a position of still needing some kind of stimulus. Let me point out the number of people in the labor force did rise 724,000. The number of people employed is greater then the number of people unemployed, and so the employment rate change is a good news number. Lisa that is where i wanted to go with the Unemployment Rate drop. A full percentage point decline in the Unemployment Rate was achieved in one month. Is this repeatable . Does this fly in the face of people saying the labor market is decelerating dramatically and we have seen the bulk of the gains . Michael it is repeatable, we do not know if it will be. Part of the problem is we do not have a handle on how quickly employers are bringing people back and what their outlook is. Are stillcause there people unemployed a lot of people may have lost jobs permanently. I need to check on that number. Situation with the jobs is so unusual. We have never had this before. It is hard to say what kind of actual trend we will get in this area. If Companies Find they can hire people than we may see it continue to go down, but then again you have offsetting factors like winter coming. Are restaurants going to keep everybody on the payroll if people do not want to sit outside . Let me give you the job losers. The people on temporary layoff dropped about a million during the month, while those who are permanent job losers also dropped. News ineeing some good the overall employment trends, just a long way to go to make up the hole we got into. We should mention the number of loste who got jobs, we 147,000 jobs at the federal level because census workers are now going off the payroll. If you want to figure that in, you have to subtract what was there before. Jonathan great to catch up as always. Michael mckee breaking through the numbers and looking at the economy. A low bit of light election relief for the next five minutes as we sit on the payrolls report. And i subside surprise. 638,000 numbers. A positive revision. , a implement rate stunning drop from 7. 9 to 6. 9 . The estimate in our survey was 7. 6 . This is a reaction in the market. Equity futures off the lows. Off. 4 . In foreignexchange, the dominant story has been a weaker dollar. Eurodollar approaching a 1. 19 handle. Treasuries lower, 10year gilts up, 30 year yields higher. Up about five basis points on a 30 year yield off the back of a decent payrolls report. Tom absolutely decent and you see it with the market move. Jeffrey rosenberg, blackrock Portfolio Manager of their systematic multistrategy front. Good morning to you. The bond market in its dynamic, and i must put out mr. Rosenberg is the expert on the mathematics of rates of changes, jeffrey rosenberg, can you glean from the bond market what the bed is on stimulus . Jeffrey not really. I think youre talking about the debate about stimulus in a lameduck session. Tom that or the how much of it. The crazy position we are in right now. They were so good that the rates of change have spread, can you glean a policy response out of it . Jeffrey i would not go that far. I think what you are seeing is a good report from the labor market reminding us there is labor market healing going on and postelection you had cleaned up a lot of crowded positioning around the steepening from fiscal policy. Youre coming into todays report with a lot of positioning that is more neutral. Expectations, post a big flattening we saw after the election and we priced out the blue wave. Now what we are seeing is not so much about a bond market view toward stimulus, but simply the stimulus is naturally occurring in the labor markets feel it is a strong report, a strong vote of confidence pun intended. Hope you caught that. Lisa we did. [laughter] lisa carryon. Strengthening the of the real economy. We turn our as attentions away from the election and back to the virus. This is backward looking. This is last month. When we look forward there are still challenges. There is the recovery in the labor market that should be better for growth and inflation. You see a little bit of steepening in the bond market. Lisa jay powell said the labor Market Recovery is halfway done at best. He also reiterated his view monetary stimulus has been supportive for the economy and will continue to do so. They are discussing adjusting some of their bond purchases, asset purchases to further support the economy. The question i have is what are they looking at we are not seeing. This report indicates a labor Market Recovery that is on course. Jeffrey i think they are looking at the cumulative losses in the totality of the damage. It was a very significant damage that has been done. We have a lot of recovery but we have not had the complete recovery. What the fed is looking for is to get the labor market back to where it was before. To run the economy hot, to let the gains from a strong labor market spread throughout the economy, these are the goals. They will hold this highly accommodative, and the debate is not holding the highly accommodative stance, but wonder they ramp it up even more in the face of what was going on in europe, a lot of questions about that. Tools forour further dividing for providing even more accommodation . All that focus on the character of the purchase program, it timing. Its size, its that is what we will look for whether it is in december or the new year. That is what the fed has left in the toolbox to address the needs for further accommodation as we get through this fear of this winter surge in the virus. Lisa yesterday the former fed governor came on our show and said he did not think the fed has any tools left to support the economy. It does seem like the market is betting the Federal Reserve will at least be able to stimulate asset prices further with junk bond yields following to the lowest since 2014 but not necessarily edify this economy. Do you agree with that view . The idea you can going to risk your deck with the idea the fed will backstop you even if the economy continues to be sluggish and fails to recover . Jeffrey what the credit market interventions are about is the ability of the fed to use its lending facilities to extend a credit cycle, to postpone the impact of cash flow disruptions from covid. That has been a Successful Program to bringing back Financial Market functioning, which is exactly the point of the policies. There is a lot of room for the fed to extend that, to support Financial Market functioning, to dampen credit market volatility and provide the lubricant for more credit functioning, but the fed cannot fix the fundamental issues of covid and its disruption in the economy and most importantly its disruption to Business Models. Powell said in taking out a loan, taking out a loan you cannot afford is not necessarily going to be a solution. For Large Companies is a solution to postpone, to buy them time. Financial markets like that because the longer you delay, you postpone incidents of default, your earnings coupons because you are using borrowing to pay the current interest. You can kick the can down the road but there are still reckoning for Business Models that do not work in a postcovid economy. They will need a restructuring. , how do you chaos be systematic . How do you affect systematic . Jeffrey systematic has a lot of different applications, but one of the Key Applications is not relying on concentrated positioning spirit a good example is not relying on the ability to forecast the outlook for the election. Again we are full by pollsters. Again the market is surprised. When you have a concentrated portfolio, you are more vulnerable to the inability to make those forecast. Rather than having concentrated positions, assisting medic systematic investing has a focus on diversified positions that are not reliant on one macro scheme. That helps the symptomatically investment process work through away the focus from betting on direction to extracting returns from dispersion, from differences. These kind of environments are actually helpful for boosting the amount of dispersion. It is very supportive of that type of investment approach. Tom jeffrey rosenberg, thank you very much. Interesting treatise on where the bond market is. Now 14 onance, futures. 27. 92. It was a 28 handle before. A stunning Unemployment Rate, 6. 9 . Distant from the bloom of 10 we felt only a number of months ago. The vix coming in off of the good news. Read on the screen but futures 14. Yields out three basis points on the 10 year yield. This is a joy. She has been with us almost daily, i think we make hire her. Wendy schiller with us out of providence and Brown University and we are thrilled she could join us. I will do this to you. I will give you an open question. What did you think of the president s speech last night . Most i thought it was the destructive speech from the mop to see for democracy he has made since he was elected president. Sometimes trump gets around deal, but in this case there was no truth to what he was saying. What im worried about is people on the ground counting the votes, they are people like you and me, they are in maricopa arizona, they get out of 1 00 in the morning, their people taking pictures of cars and the license plates, this is incredibly frightening. People could get hurt with the president in the white house reaping room. If you wants to sue, he can soup. George w. Bush sued and it worked for him. Affrontt it was such an to the soul of the democracy, and i cannot believe he could win arizona. Pennsylvania is not over, he is still in the lead. Georgia flipped, but only a thousand votes. There are lots of ways the election could go. We will see what happens in pennsylvania today. I do not think he did himself any favors and the Republican Party any favors. Lisa what is the historical precedent for this type of rhetoric in the oversight of poll workers who are just diligently trying diligently trying to count the boxes . Wendy this is fascinating. It takes a lot longer. There has been a lot of this rhetoric. Certainly in the late 19th century they were incredibly vitriolic, they owned newspapers , spreading all sorts of information with no checks. There have been periods of time in the past where this has been similar. We have had this kind of dispute. It started with the Civil Rights Movement and thinking about making sure africanamerican voters could vote, particularly in the south, and how you could watch for violations or rejections to turning people away from the polls, but it is relatively new to have this kind of activity in the polls, not more than 60 years old at best. We are still new at it by all accounts the republican governor of georgia and the republican secretary of state has had practice. It will take a little heavy lifting by people who maybe support the Republican Party, good for you, but when you attack the integrity of the voting process, which gave republicans victories in the senate and the house, then you are attacking the soul of democracy. You have to step up and say may , but it ise election going to really bother President Trump if he loses but all of the republicans he believed he has carried keep their seats. Theres also question, all the republicans that keep their seats, how they respond to the Republican Party post trump . If he is confirmed to have lost the election, what is the Republican Party look like in the next years . Wendy if im the Republican Party, i did great in this election, and i did great because i represented a more stable alternative to the Democratic Party was offering. You just keep going. You just won. The question is how do you separate from President Trump if he loses . They are looking at 2022. Which mcconnell wants to keep the senate for 2022. You had ted cruz and Lindsey Graham trying to run for president in 2024. You have two wings of the party. The wing that wants to beat trumpism and the others who just won and the others who do not want the headache of dealing with trump for the next years. You so have to dangle you keep coming back. In 1855 mr. Seward walked out of the whig party and killed it. He went over to the Republican Party and served with president lincoln. How close to the republicans to an 1855 . Wendy i think they are not doing that. Hemcconnells tweets is not walking away from trump, but he is not looking towards trump. If you are them, isnt it better to have biden in the white house when youre running in 2022 and want to solidify republican gains . You do not want the same party as the president. In every politically strategic way it is better for the republicans in congress who just won reelection to have joe biden in rather than trump. They will block everything he wants to do. There will not be legislative changes. It is almost an ideal situation for Mitch Mcconnell. There are millions of people who voted for trump who will be devastated and may or may not accept the election results. What we do if we get into a situation where there is situation with unrest . Youre asking this perfect question. Will we see mitt romney rise up . We will see. If he loses, that has to frustrate them. Tom we got a headline. The next headline is they will find 1000 votes in providence, rhode island. The u. S. Postal service says they found 1000 ballots in philadelphia. That is all i got. Isnt that true most elections . Ballots get lost. Wendy that is true. There a lot of ballots that get rejected. The thousand ballots get rejected every election. Pennsylvania yuri, i am watching erie, pennsylvania. Tom we have to interrupt. Bring in that important news. Hearing joe just biden has taken the lead in pennsylvania as the count continues. This according to cnn and msnbc. We knew there was an 18,000 votes cap. It does appear based on cnn and msnbc that they have superseded that gap and former Vice President joe biden has taken the lead. There is a question, professor schiller, how marrow is too narrow for some of these leads to hold water, especially when we talk about the social aspect, some of the rhetoric of President Trump. Is there a delta that is big enough to absolutely cast aside any doubt about the verdict of this election . Wendy it is a fantastic question. Pennsylvania, western pennsylvania is coming in. If some of those counties flip or they provide a lot more balance for joe biden, that helps mitigate the impact of philadelphia. Look for the distribution in philadelphia to see how joe biden accrues more votes. If it is distributed, that made that mitigates little bit. If bidens lead holds in georgia and he wins four states still controlled by republican governors, that will go a long way to getting this settled in the american mind. That is the next big step to dissuading people this was stolen by philadelphia. It might not mean something in the end. I think that takes a lot of air out of the tires of the trump argument. Tom greatly appreciated. Wendy schiller, love having her on. Complete ownership of our american history. I am doing the quick math. Im doing this on the surveillance pad. Votes is my immediate math as mr. Joe biden takes the lead in pennsylvania. I do not see a change in georgia in the last 10 minutes. Lisa i do not see that, but to give you a sense of how close this is, joe biden currently has 3,000,002 hundred 95,003 hundred 19 votes in pennsylvania, where donald trump has 3,289,725 votes according to the Associated Press. Razor thin margin. Well be seeing recounts, we will be seeing legal challenges. That gap and how big that spread is matters given the legal challenges and the recounts likely to be called for. Tom bloomberg and Associated Press have that as well. Data comes out from various local and state election people. The distribution is not onebutton like the stock market is. Every time they distribute it seems to go in a different pattern. Markets,see with the nice recovery, not just the politics but the job economy. Lisa it seems like with the markets, looking into more certainty. If you get more certainty, that tends to be better for markets. The uncertainty to me is the pandemic. We have Record Numbers and people are shrugging it off and sang a vaccine is coming. We talked to experts who say it will not be until the end of next year. This dissonance is hard to stomach. Tom our conversation with the ceo of astrazeneca within the last few days was illuminating on that. The challenges on the distribution of the vaccine. On the data, 30, negative eight right now. The vix almost flat. A massive yield shift, five basis points higher yield, a lower 10year note price. The 30 year bond is up seven basis points, 1. 59 . Sterlingdollar, 1. 3146. Yen 103. 30. We need to do this because it is idiosyncratic. Turkish lira onto new weakness. We will continue with alexion 2020. Election 2020. Th mr. Biden ahead in georgia and just moments ago ahead in pennsylvania. Stay with us on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. We erase this mornings losses. Equity futures down about. 1 . We begin with the big issue. The counting continues. Joe biden taking a nominal read phenomenal lead in pennsylvania. Joe biden continuing to urge calm and patience. Feelden we continue to very good about where things stand. We have no doubt that when the count is finished, senator harris and i will be to the winners. I ask everyone to stay calm. All people will stay calm. The process is working. The count is being completed. Jonathan President Trump disagreeing, continuing to attack the elections credibility. Tosident trump our goal is defend the integrity of the election