Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20240712

500 futures up about one third of 1 . Ftse futures higher by 2 10 of 1 . Unbelievable to see a zillion euro in the mix a resilient euro in the mix. The story is the equity market yesterday. The more cyclical sectors, bottom of the pile in the u. S. And europe, Energy Stocks having a tough time of it in 2020. Annmarie they have. Both sides of the atlantic, energy getting pummeled. That brings us to bp results. The first of the oil majors to report earnings kicking off the week. Adjusted net at 86 million. The estimate was for a loss of 116. 8 million so that is something that will boost bp. Is expected to fall in the fourth quarter. So far, it is not looking too bad. Analysts were expecting a loss because right now, the refiners are having trouble turning a profit because demand is so low. When you turn that crude into things like gasoline, the demand is not there. The volatility buying all the oil and selling it at a higher price, that saves a lot of these majors in the last quarter and that has really started to dial back. Jonathan much more still to come a that this morning. Wti trading at about 38. 90. Brent crude, 40. 88. Lets get first word news. For president win trump and Congressional Republicans on the eve of the election. The Senate Confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to be the newest justice on the supreme court. That solidifies a 63 conservative majority. Barrett may be asked to weigh in on cases that could determine the outcome of a close election. The European Union has endorsed the nigerian former finance minister to lead the wto, but the u. S. Is backing her rival, south korea straight chief. The preference of other key members including china is not yet clear. The wto plans to announce on november 7. President macron is facing a widening rift with muslim countries over his crackdown on radical islam. Turkeys president is leaning calls to boycott french goods, but it is unclear how widespread that will become. Early responses are divided along familiar lines with turkeys allies on one side and saudi arabias on the other. The recent tension sparked by the murder of a french teacher. Womens groups ramping up protests in poland after the top court banned abortion. Demonstrators blocked key roads and bridges in warsaw and other cities bringing traffic to a halt. A new high in civil disobedience on the fiveyear real of the nationalist justice party. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Jonathan thank you. Top story, virus cases surging in europe. Governments running out of options to fight the pandemic. The continent facing a drastic step of another lockdown and pushed back across europe starting, people starting to revolt. Joining us is maria tadeo. We are hearing restrictions this time around and the pushback these governments are receiving. A i would say this is probably the elephant in the room, the biggest question is what kind of social pushback can we get . What kind of anger do we see this time around . People dont have patience for this. A lockdown has huge repercussions on your personal life. Huge repercussions on mental health, your personal finances. A lot of the pain is also selfinflicted by politicians. Just a few weeks ago, we heard this repeated time after time that there would be no lockdown. That europe was ready. That hospitals were in a better shape and this second round of coronavirus would not be as bad as it was in march. Clearly, the situation is looking a lot like march. People can see that. That threshold and tolerance for crisis management, for very hard restrictions on your life clearly have gone down because we have been told many times this was going to be ok, that we were ready for it and now politicians are you turning on that. Whip laste been week after week and this is probably the end result. Annmarie those pictures you are seeing are protests in northern italy due to the fresh lockdown measures, the strictest we have seen since they took measures earlier in the year. I know macron will be having a meeting on this today. Is now National Lockdowns just unavoidable . Maria that is a good point because the mood has really changed on this. Just a week ago, everybody kept repeating lets wait until we see the results for the measures. We need two weeks to see if it is not working, whether it is taming the infection rate. That debate is changing created the french government, they had been very vocal about this. This is dramatic for the economy. They are now saying they hope they dont have to go for a lockdown. In belgium, which has a really bad infection rate, that if the end by next week, if it does not go down, there would perhaps be a partial lockdown. I would not say it is unavoidable but the conversation is turning that way and has gone from something that would not happen to something that is now being considered. Jonathan appreciate your time this morning. Big story across europe. Maria in brussels. This is the story for me. It is not just the people, the citizens pushing back. Even within the government, we have pushback as well. Front page of the times in the u. K. This morning, a revolt within the conservative party about the measures they brought forward. I think that is the big change this time around. The difference between now and spring, we dont have that collective will to do this again. Annmarie that is right. More than 50 of Boris Johnsons own members of the conservative party saying it is not fair was happening in the north part of the country and not happening and what usually is the more wealthy part of the southern part of the country. As maria was just saying, theres no appetite for it anymore. It hurts peoples personal finance, their lives and mental health. Jonathan joining us now is the fx strategist at commerzbank. It has been fantastic to catch up with you. We face a very real prospect of a doubledip in the european economy. I can see a euro north of 1. 18. Why are we still up here . Esther because it is still very difficult to evaluate how the longterm effect of the pandemic will be paid it will metal for longterm interim it will matter for the longterm Interest Rates if the inflation outlook and real Economic Outlook. We simply dont have any information. We are not knowing where we are going because the pandemic is evolving fast and the data cannot catch up. Annmarie yesterday, the euro was resilient but one thing was yen and gold barely budged yesterday. We saw this flight to the havens. Why . Esther to be honest, i think what we are seeing right now is largely a lot of noise in the fx market. As i said, we simply have no real information where we are going. Yes, we are seeing surging infe ctions in europe and, yes, this will most likely have an impact on the economy. But on the other hand, the market is reacting positively if governments take measures to contain the pandemic. In the end, if this is successful, this will improve the Economic Outlook after the pandemic. Jonathan its very constructive view of you to say that but italy and most peoples minds did the right thing through summer. Adhering to Wearing Masks was much higher than say places like the u. K. Yet, here we are, italy restricting access to the economy once again. It is not really that simple, is it . Esther no, its not. Trying to go forward without knowing what is there. The Monetary Policy support from the ecb. We do have the fiscal support. I think going forward, it is very important that the eu recovery stays off the ground. That is something the market is not counting on. In particular, to question the effect on the economy. Annmarie what we are seeing in europe this morning, especially protests overnight over northern italy. Does lagarde have no choice but to hint at more coming through in the december meeting . Esther Everything Else will definitely be a huge disappointment but i think theres really no reason to fear that the ecb was vocal about stressing they stand ready to support the economy further. Clearly against the background of rising, everybody expects the ecb to signal its willingness to continue to support the european economy. Jonathan stick with us. Looking ahead to the ecb meeting this thursday. Esther from commerzbank. The price action this morning. Across the continent, equities doing a little bit better. The euro firm at 1. 18. The story through the week right now is all about the earnings on both sides of the electric. Santander rebounding afterwards worst ever quarter. The ceo of one of europes biggest startup companies, novartis, 20 minutes away. From london, this is bloomberg. We adjusted in april and over the course of the secondhalf year, we will see gradual improvement in the demand environment due to lockdowns easing. Unfortunately, the opposite is starting to happen. This has been an amazing time. A year none of us could have possibly expected. In technology, every company is going through a massive Digital Transformation and that transformation is accelerating. Saps troubles i think are unique to them. Jonathan the ceo of salesforce putting distance between his own company after the German Software company wiped out 1 10 of its value yesterday, playing a large role in the slump we had on the daq. Big earnings this tuesday morning. Dani burger with more. Dani hey. Hsbc, one of the banks to kick off the earnings today. They are coming in with a beat. The beat comes from lower Loan Loss Provisions at hsbc. Hsbc itself also pointing to the cost cuts and really higher profit. Manus cranny spoke to the cfo of hsbc who said they are preparing for a limited return to buybacks. Dividends, rather. Take a listen to what he had to say. We will make an evaluation at the back end of this year, early next year of the Economic Outlook. We will engage with the but the market will start conservatively. Earnings hithe the positive views, we saw shares rise 5 in hong kong trading. Return to devon and is also a they whose rebound from bank ever seen coming in at 1,750,000,000 worth of profit. The estimate had been for one billion. Santander dividend are keys for they have the general meeting at 8 a. M. London time where they will vote on the dividend plan. In order for them to pay out dividends, they have to get the ecb on board as well. They are showing brazil operations were better. They are having capital picture improving their pe ratio better. All of this is to say we have a strong Balance Sheet, we are ready to resume dividends. Novartis also out with results. Dani novartis has this diversion picture they have to deal with. They have new medicines that have out of a lot of demand. But the volatility in the medicines picture but the new medicine able to offset the weakened demand from the old covid19 pandemic. And previously this all the earnings grow in the low double so a positive picture that is creating it up about 2. 5 so far this morning. Jonathan looking forward to catch up with the ceo in about 15 minutes on this program. The conversation in europe after s p was how unique the situation was. We listened to marc benioff, unique to sap. The worry for many people, given whats happening in europe at the moment, more companies will need to follow in the next couple of weeks. Annmarie certainly. What saps said, a quarter was based on a rebound of an economy. That is not happening and investors have to wake up and recalibrate the fact we are back to square one nearly. They are not full on lockdown but we are getting there with these tough restrictions taking place in europe. Onare seeing the cases surge the other side of the atlantic as well. Jonathan for square one, policymakers look to the ecb. Why are we talking about fiscal policy . Esther is with us from commerzbank. You said earlier we have fiscal policy. Do we in europe . As far as i see, we had a package agreed to a couple of month ago that has not been ratified in the moneys are nowhere near being deployed. What happened to the european effort, at the european level that we were so excited about in june and july . Esther that is a crucial question. The market has priced in huge optimism related to the Euro Recovery Fund but so far no money is flowing. We have not seen a repricing in the dynamics yet. This optimism that there will be the fiscal support from the Euro Recovery Fund is still priced in. As negotiations are ongoing, there is still the hope it comes. If this breaks down, this would love a huge impact on the euro. Annmarie fiscal policy momentum means less inflation. Where do you see that going in terms of the eurodollar . Esther well, actually, less inflation is a positive for the euro. Monetary policy, theres not much they can do about it. Monetary policy are most likely fixed. If inflation is low, this means the euro is losing less of its purchasing power. If inflation is higher in the United States, it actually is in favor of higher eurodollar levels because the u. S. Dollar would simply lose its value faster than the euro. Jonathan stay with us. We will carry on this conversation. The money that still has not been deployed. We will take it to the u. S. In a moment. We will go a little bit from session highs. We are up about 1 10 of 1 . Futures bouncing back a little bit. Futures up 2 10 of 1 . Big losses yesterday, really muted this tuesday morning. S p 500 futures just the back to 3400, up one third of 1 . A bit into the bond market. Vix, yields south of 80 basis points on the u. S. 10 year this morning. Coming up, election day one week away. Stimulus day nowhere to be seen. We talk politics and stimulus next, right here on bloomberg. I never really did think we would get a deal before the election. Either way, the pressure bell gets tilting and people get back to some semblance of normal. It will be a number between the 2 trillion they are talking about now. Jonathan the never ending story on capitol hill after a 52 minute call yesterday. Nancy pelosi and Steven Mnuchin failing to resolve the differences on a stimulus package. Hopes for a preelection bill fading. This market fading in the past when he four hours. The price action from yesterday. We bounceback 12 on the ftse. Similar bounce on the s p 500, really needed one week out from the election. In the United States, every single sector in negative territory at the close yesterday. The fx market, eurodollar 1. 1823. Really resilient euro considering whats happening. The 10 year at the moment. 79 basis points for the u. S. 10 year yield. We capped the selloff from last week but i think it is fascinating to see how resilient this euro is the face of what is happening in europe right now. We lost momentum coming into autumn. Quite clearly, we lost momentum and now we are adding more restrictions. This is an economy facing real difficulty before winter even get started. Annmarie you and i have both made that point a number of times. Winter is not even here, and we are already seeing some tough restrictions. On top of that, the pmi numbers for september and october were decent on the manufacturing front but really bad on the services front. This really has a worry of europe going potentially back into a doubledip. Jonathan europes stalling momentum in the United States. Esther is still with us. The momentum in the United States really sets it apart from whats happening in europe right now. How durable do you think that momentum is . Esther that is the huge question. Very concerned about the lack of fiscal stimulus, so its crucial that following the elections, we are going to see a huge fiscal stimulus package. The market is disappointed there, i think we could see some repricing and dollar appreciation pressure otherwise. Annmarie i like in your notes, you said deadlines are simply ridiculous. We were talking about brexit but the said could be said here as well. Your base case is we do get a deal, but are the markets now overpricing that too much . The market was pricing that and when we thought we would the calls were pointing to a blue wave. Now some are saying it could be a blue tide. Even if biden wins the white house, does that mean he will have that much numbers in terms of the democrats in the senate and house. Esther yeah, that is a huge risk factor which is why wouldnt underestimate the market going up with the elections. Everybody is focusing on the president ial race but what matters far more in my opinion with respect and what to expect from fiscal policy is what happening in the house or in the senate. Jonathan do you have a convictions at this at all or is it wait and see what we wake up to on the morning of november 4 . Esther yeah, absolutely. Dont risk any direction because there are too many uncertainty factors. Not only the Election Results, but if the election surprise four years ago taught us anything, you should not necessarily bet on the initial reaction right after the Election Results are coming up. Donald trump benefited tremendously on that night, but basically give away all of the gains again. Great to catch up with you. Jonathan esther, affect strategist at commerzbank. The risk to month ago that we woke up november 4 without a result. Now all of a sudden, we started to price and incrementally that blue wave. The risk again is we wake up november 4 with a result that does not have a clean path towards fiscal stimulus and that is a risk in this market. Annmarie exactly. More and more people i am talking to dont think we will have a contested election at all. We are seven days away from u. S. Election day. 65 million americans have already cast their ballot. That is half of the total votes counted basically in 2016. Jonathan 20 days seven days rather until we wrap up the election. I think that is the best way of phrasing it. S, we speaknor abouvati to the ceo next on this program. From the city of london this morning, good morning, this is bloomberg. Jonathan 30 minutes from the opening bell and in london, the ftse firmer by. 2 . We bounced back on s p 500 futures after a rough start to the trading week. This morning, novartis, raising its earnings forecast for the for new medicines offsets disruption from covid19. We can catch up with the ceo vas narasimhan. Fantastic to catch up with you. Thank you for your time this morning. The lazy analysis around a Pharma Company right now is covid19, must be good for pharma but clearly, there is disruption for you as we face the prospect of another shutdown. Can you walk me through the concerns you have looking at europe specifically . Vas when you look at the dynamics in the marketplace, there is definitely impact from the disruption in Health Care Systems. We see that in our generics unit, and therapeutics like dermatology, and but weve been pleased with the recovery over the course of the summer, getting patients back in for the care they need. You see that in our numbers, our Growth Drivers, outpacing other therapeutic areas where we having challenges. Growing doubledigits, Growth Drivers accounting for 50 of our sales. Overall, we are in a reasonable position. The fourth quarter, we will have to see how Health Care Systems grapple with the next wave but they have learned how to manage cases better, getting patients in for care, so overall, obviously optimistically caution optimistic. The momentum, the stability is continued . Vas when you look at the visits of patients into the healthcare system, what we saw was a slow recovery from the dip in april, close to 60 or 70 reduction in Outpatient Health care visits. In september, that has almost normalized. In october, we saw a slight dip but still close to precovid levels. We are watching those metrics carefully and what is important is they vary based on the individual therapeutic areas. Some therapeutic areas are hardhit, others able to manage better. Overall, health ministers, Health Care Systems have realized what we cant afford is a second epidemic with respect to covid. The second epidemic of noncommunicable diseases, cancer, cardiovascular diseases taking a huge toll on large swaths of the population who suffer from these. The we need to do is strike right balance, tackle covid as cases arise, and continue to maintain as close as possible, normal health care operations. Annmarie im having deja vu as europe goes back into lockdowns. You were one of my last in person interviews into switzerland. Put on your different hat now. You worked on the h1n1 vaccine. When we had a mumps vaccine in was crazy960s, it how quickly we got there. Are we getting ahead of ourselves talking about a vaccine at the end of 2020, early 2021 . Vas it is important to stay humble only look at the development of medicines. It is difficult to find novel medicines and vaccines. We are looking for a vaccine , itnst a respiratory virus has proven extremely challenging. What we can reasonably hope for as we start to generate data, and i am hopeful by the end of next year, we will have solid data hopefully multiple vaccines, but have reasonable safety and efficacy and adequate to bes of the medicine able to treat large populations around the world. What im more confident about is what we will continue to see is incremental improvements in patient care, slowly and surely better medicines to manage patients in the icu, in the hospital, continue to get the severity rates down on covid, and the world will be able to then manage this pandemic and manage getting back to a more normal way of living. Trialse what about your on the antibodies . Expensive, as well as how do you get it up to production . One of the key things is how you use the medicine in the course of the illness. Arerly, whether they treating the syndrome that covid, you have to targeted and most of these are pervasive in the icu or hospital setting. One of the problems is we cant scale these up to tens of instantly. Doses we will meet new technologies, we are evaluating your technologies we hope could get us to very large volumes of y therapiesantibodie and can use oral drugs . Because the oral medicine, we can produce tens of billions of doses of medicine. What is important is we are going to need full range of technologies. We are going to need vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, oral therapeutics, more Rapid Diagnostics and incrementally, we will get to a better place in managing the entire situation for the good of Human Society around the world. Youthan this morning, sound a little more confident about the prospects in the future and that is good news for us all. In august of last year, you were worried about the possibility of a pandemic. When you look at what policymakers have done to make sure we can accelerate vaccine studies, trials, and ultimately production to roll this out, do you think we are doing enough and where can we do more . Vas i think a lot is being done, and i think clearly, there immense global collaboration across the pharmaceutical industry, with governments, nongovernment actors to ensure we scale up. I cochair with bill gates a collaboration where we signed a communique to ensure we enabled equal access to these technologies. What is critical right now is we maintain public trust in the process, that we are extremely data driven, the public can believe whatever vaccine and therapeutics are getting approved have robust data sets. There will be a push to rush at the moment and what is important for the long run is we have very solid and efficacious and safe vaccines and therapeutics because what we cant afford is a misstep, lose public trust and these are not broadly used. I was going to say come on public trust, we saw a russia and china already start to roll out on a vaccine. Was that wrong . Vas i do worry about rushing too quickly for a vaccine, because what is incredibly important is that you understand the nearterm and longterm or midterm safety, and that you also ensure the efficacy is something that stands the test of time. Month, butust for a can last multiple months and that data takes time to generate. I understand there is a huge allure of rushing out with a vaccine, but when we go too fast, we can disrupt the ability of Clinical Trials to occur for even better vaccines down the line, so weve got to strike this balance of making sure we dont undermine the larger scale effort in our rush to get something out. Leading you are a voice on these issues and we appreciate your time this morning. Vas narasimhan, the ceo of novartis. About 22 minutes from the open and in the city of london, a rough start yesterday. Tuesday morning, the bounceback, we advance. 2 on ftse. Up around nine points. A stick in the bond market, unchanged. South of 80 basis points on the 10 year. Lets get the first word news with laura wright. Laura Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing more pressure over his pandemic policies. More than 15 members of his own interpretive party are demanding a route out of lockdowns for part of northern england. It is deepening the divide with the south. Speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin have failed to close the cap over a new stimulus package in a nearly hourlong call. The two werent able to agree on language for a National Test and take trace program. Pelosi remains optimistic about a deal before election day. Armenias Prime Minister says its u. S. Brokered truce with jan has broken down, the third time negotiations have failed to stop the worst fighting in the region for decades. Each side is accusing the other of breaching the ceasefire. Mediators have tried for nearly three decades to secure a permanent peace. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Annmarie thanks so much, ill pick it up from here. Jonathan no, take it away. Please, get to the markets. Think it looks like investors are collecting themselves this morning, arent they, after yesterday. Brutal monday, started the week. This week, 100 84 s p 500 Companies Reporting and things are looking more stable. Jonathan there you go, we got her it. Some stability this morning. Santander, rebounding from its worst ever quarter with a profit beat. We speak to the cfo to run the program. This is bloomberg. He will make an evaluation at the back end of this year or early next year on the Economic Outlook. Our regulators engage with regulators in due course but markets should expect us to start conservatively the outlook for 2021 is still uncertain, so will want to retain some buffer for that uncertainty and look to build a conservative position from their. There. Cfo speaking hsbc to manus cranny this morning. Heres dani burger. Dani we are seeing santander with a stronger than expected net income, rebounding from the first loss in company history. Net income coming in at 1,750,000,000 euros, the estimate had been for just one billion euros. Helping the picture was stronger operations in brazil along with cost cuts and lower loanloss provisions. All of that gives a picture where we have a stronger capital strength measurement. Improving. Also that is the key for earnings because the bank has been outspoken in its desire to return to dividends. So outspoken, it has already announced its plans for further dividends. In 15 minutes where shareholders will vote on their dividend plans. They cant issue those unless the ecb lifts their de facto ban, but showing they have a strong Balance Sheet, the shareholder vote, all that could be raised to help the ecb push them along into lifting the de facto dividend ban. Jonathan we are joined by the cfo of santander, jose garcia cantera. Fantastic to catch up with you. Positionanco the Capital Position have to deploy that dividend. We had a Strong Quarter this quarter was stronger than the second. We are in a position to give guidance for the coming quarters the performance is going to be strong. Not only the capital we have at the end of the quarter, but the mediumterm outlook for the bank is better than what we had at the beginning of the pandemic. Annmarie every good morning to you. There is talk banks with low capital may still be restricted. We are going to get an update from the ecb on this de facto ban. Do you think you will be able to distribute if they potentially look at different banks depending on what their capital ratios are . Ban on think a general dividends is weighing on the sector and that is clear. The cost of equity for the Banking Sector in europe has been affected by that decision and i think a general ban on proven negative for the sector. To differentiate amongst banks because you can negative perception on some institutions, so what we believe is going to happen is they will allow for a small, but general Dividend Payment for the sector as a whole. Jonathan interesting you say the biggest thing weighing on the sector is what is happening with the dividend and most would say look at what is happening to the economy. We face potentially a second lockdown, rates could be lower in europe and elsewhere for a lot longer and im trying to work out, how do you start making real money anytime soon with the prospect of rates where they are the next five years . Jose weve given guidance for profits for the year around 5 billion recurrent profits. That is a return on tangible equity of 7 . In the worst crisis of almost a century, thanks to our diversification, the good performance of our units in the u. S. And south america, this tor, we are going to be able have a profit of 5 billion, recurring profit of 5 billion. I think this shows the strength andhe bank, diversification in this bad situation is able to serve its clients and make money, so we really dont see with this level of capital, it is difficult to justify european banks trade at four or five times. The top story is the resurgence of cases around europe. People taking to the streets against measures in italy. Are you worried there are going to be more risks to bad loans . Can those take another leg lower given the restrictions resurgence and restrictions we are seeing . Jose clearly, there is a high degree of uncertainty in how the pandemic will involve. Evolve. However, have more visibility on the impact to our customers. At the end of march, a risk indication for the year of 1. 4 to 1. 5 . We think it is going to be in the region of 1. 3 . It is difficult to predict what will happen. It is behaving better than expected. Havehirds of the moratoria expired and only 2 are impaired. We have seen better behavior of the economy in brazil, where gdp has a target imf and9 for the year to 6 localities looking at 3 to 4 . Countries. Ook in there are countries it might be more difficult, but when you look at a diversified group of banks and units we have, the outlook is definitely not as bad. Jonathan quickly, some news out in spain this morning that you are looking to cut 3000 jobs in the country. Any comments on that this morning . Jose the customer behaviors are changing. The you look at the u. K. In quarter, 80 of transactions, sales were conducted digitally and for the group as a whole, 44 of sales were digital. To accompany our customers in the way they want to establish a relationship with the bank and adjust the physical Distribution Network. That, however, as you can imagine, any adjustment to our personnel has to be negotiated with the unions, which we havent yet so that figure you are talking about is highly speculative at the moment. Clearly, we will sit down with the unions over the next several days and discuss adjustments. Jonathan the figure is speculative, but clearly the effort is not. It looks like you are going down that road. Jose as i said, we need to adjust the physical Distribution Network to respond to customer needs. Jonathan we really been there. Thank you. Jose garcia cantera, the cfo of banco santander. In your market, around nine minutes from the open. The equity market, up one third of 1 on ftse futures, the s p 500 up around one third of 1 . Eurodollar 1. 1822. The market open. Next, stocks to watch including bp come out with a surprise profit this morning. From london, alongside Annmarie Hordern, im Jonathan Ferro and this is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Jonathan seven minutes from the opening bell. Equity futures are bouncing up one third of 1 on the s p 500. Ftse futures up one third. With your movers, here is dani burger. Dani bp, delivering better than expected results for the quarter, coming in at about 86 million, a net profit. Consensus was 117 million loss. Last fewuse over the weeks, analysts have cut expectation. They are chipping away at that and that is important for the dividend picture. Called higher 3 after they are out with sales. Day had been pummeled yesterday after s. A. P. Reduced their forecast. Said 2020 forecast is in line, unchanged for us. Another move her to the upside, because we all cant have earnings stories, easyjet, selling nine of their aircraft, that will help secure liquidity and strengthen their Balance Sheet. Undercash proceeds are 400 million. It will continue to review its liquidity picture and look for further Funding Options if necessary. Jonathan thank you very much. So the airlines, it is difficult, particularly in europe given what we are facing october 27th,ly, not november, not december. Doesnt look good. Reporte no, a times was telling. The airlines are trying to get that Business Travel back. Hedge fund managers, bankers, will they be able to travel . That is a question to u. K. Is discussing and airlines, hoping it might happen. Jonathan four minutes away, equity futures bounce back a little. The cash open, right here on bloomberg tv. Jonathan 60 seconds from the cash open in london this tuesday morning. European policymakers, short on options facing lockdown results. Attention to earnings after an ugly start to the week and in washington, americas election wrapping up a week from today. Lets get to it. Equity futures, bouncing back at a mild bounce back into the cash open. Futures, up 15 on euro stoxx 50 futures, up. 5 . Ftse, up one third of 1 . , up 77 this morning, up. 7 but the story of the week, virus, picking up across europe, case count, restrictions picking up and the outlook for europe, not looking great. Jose i had annmarie i had deja vu of march. Not as bad, but the worst in a month. Serious weakness across Global Equity markets yesterday. Jonathan ftse 100 opening flat. Foreign exchange this morning, sterling also dead flat. Into the bond market, where that did came into the market yesterday, it has stayed there. A slight move higher on yields in germany. France in the belly of the curve, the 10 year bund yield, down to 57 basis points. The cac 40 in7 , france up not. 1 . Last 24 hours,e virus cases surging in europe and governments are running out of options to fight the pandemic. That means the drastic step of a second lockdown is on the agenda. Is cautiously optimistic but warned against rushing a vaccine. Vas i understand theres a huge allure of rushing out with a vaccine that the other thing we have to remember is when we go too fast, we can disrupt the ability of Clinical Trials to occur for even better vaccines down the line, so weve got to strike this balance of making sure we dont undermine the larger scale effort in our rush to get something out. Jonathan joining us now is bloombergs maria tadeo from brussels. The new news is not the case flow, not the restrictions. It is about how people in these countries, italy and elsewhere are responding to the governments efforts. Thats right and it is the social anger we are seeing and in the coastal the social context matters because the rules only work if people are willing to respect them. The social context has changed. In march, people were told you need to stay home. Nobody could have predicted coronavirus was going to happen. That has changed. For weeks, we were told and you know this well because we heard this from governments, there would be no second locked down, we were ready, good at testing, hospitals were ready for this and we would not go back to march. The reality is on the ground, the situation is looking a lot march. When you overpromise, you under deliver and whiplash people on a weekly basis. Italy, you had it in naples friday, in france, spain, and it matters is the only way this functions is if people are willing to take the pain or to respect the rules. Annmarie a lot of covid fatigue going around in europe. In france, they are looking to double down and have harsher restrictions as early as this weekend . Maria this could be probably problematic for Emmanuel Macron because he said he was not a fan of lockdowns, but weaker speculation more restrictions are about to come this week, potentially the curfew extended to something that looks like 7 00 p. M. , 8 00 p. M. At that point, you ask if we are in a lockdown if you go from work to home and have no social life and over the weekends, you are not able to do anything. What impact is this going to have on the economy on a longerterm and that takes us to the question weve been asking ourselves. This is not about one or two week measures, these are more structural and could have Lasting Impact on the economy and do more damage to an economy that is already hurting. Jonathan great work as always. Maria tadeo in brussels on the difficulties the continent is having. Three minutes into the session, equities opening firmer on the dax. The ibex innce from spain off the back of a move in santander. Surging on betterthanexpected q3 earnings. We caught up with the ceo. After yesterdays decline. Almost every sector of the stoxx 600 trading a negative territory. Us, investment director at brad shipley. Lets talk about the earnings so far in europe. A tale of two companies. To kickn the one side things off monday, santander on the other, much better. What are you looking for in the numbers . We look for companies that can deliver longterm growth. It is not just about what this earnings cycle, it is what about they can do for the next two or three years. It is a lot of sector by sector specifics. In the Banking Sector, weve reduced loan provisions, banks with more Wealth Management and investment banking, and other sectors like oil, a continuing trend they are trying to restructure, move toward renewables, deleverage their debt so these trends are inngs that are beyond covid some ways and we try to look through it, even though it is important what is happening with the daytoday lockdowns and government responses. Santander, doing nicely, so is hsbc. You sold your position in european banks over the summer. Is it because of these dividends, the low rate environment . What would it take for you to get back in financials . Shanti financials, there is a lot of value. If you look at pricetobook and pricetoearnings, they do look attractive, but for value to work, younee need a catalyst and there are headwinds coming. We are likely to have low Interest Rates for the foreseeable future. Higher Interest Rates are something that could benefit banks. We dont know the full extent of all the loan losses and we also have tighter regulations on the Banking Sector. That is not going to change in the near future. Is hardere is value, it to see a catalyst to make the sector rerate. Jonathan santander, up 3. 5 in spain. With the cfo, who said weighing on the sector right now, the Biggest Issue was their inability to pay out. Does that resonate with you . Shanti dividends are important to a lot of our clients. There are a lot of investors who rely on them. If you are going to be very approach it from an economist angle, you would say dividends unimportant, but the signaling is what is important psychologically that Shows Companies are in a Strong Enough position they can commit to making those payments. Banks will look to return to dividends as soon as they can, and if we have things like european debt issuance to take some of the tail risk out of europe breaking up, if we can get her brexit, that will give thanks a better argument to say they can reduce capital ratios a bit and dont need to hoard so much capital. They can give some of that as dividends, but those are yet to happen. We think they will happen. We think there will be a brexit deal, there will be european bond issuance, but we need to see it happen before we can restart a lot of those payments. Jonathan thank you, appreciate your time this morning. Shanti kelemen, investment director. Some communication issues. Annmarie and i in different rooms. Annmarie we are socially distancing. Jonathan on a delay, as well. Ill go, let me get to the price action at the moment. Eight minutes into the session, equities up, hsbc rallying up 5 . By 4 , bp upe up 2. 8 . The equity market, bouncing back a little bit. One week out from a general election in the United States. Next, more on the european earnings alongside Annmarie Hordern. Im Annmarie Hordern im Jonathan Ferro. This is bloomberg. So well very liquid, have the conversations with the bank of england in the latter part of this year and address our policy around returning capital to shareholders at our year end results. We want to award our investors and have accrued for that and clearly we can pay out dividends, but we are following the guidelines and have retrained refrained. We are a bank that likes to give out dividends. We have to think about stakeholders in society and people have invested in us so we want to give back dividends but there are uncertainties. We are following the economic developments from the pandemic. Andhareholders come and go, the ones who have been staying around for nine years do dividends. , otherwise,anks banks will have very difficult task in convincing investors they should come back to invest in banks if they cannot get any dividends out of it. Jonathan thanking bosses lobbying for the return of the dividend. Hsbc, signaling a possible return to a conservative dividend. Here is the price action across europe. The ftse in london, we are down by 11 points, up. 2 . We roll over on a dax once again, down 32, off one third of 1 . The cac 40, down. 6 . The u. S. Futures, a mild bounceback, unchanged one week out from the election. A huge day in european earnings. Hsbc beats, santander rebounds from its worst quarter, and novartis raises its forecast. Back with us, shanti kelemen. Looking now through europe we had s. A. P. Downgrade guidance for the year ahead through 2020 and i wonder from your perspective how difficult it is to put together any outlook when you look at what is playing out on the continent . Shanti you can put together an outlook. Can you forecast the next three months . That is always difficult. We look for who are going to be the longterm structural winners. Companies that can generate returns on equity and 10 to 15 per year and a lot of that is clear. He see technology doing well, a companieslth care deliver earnings, renewable energy, semiconductors, and a lot of those companies are thinking two or three years down the line, fairly unchanged. Annmarie yesterday, it was a tech giant been such an unloved sector. Why do you like it and how do you think more investors could be attracted to it . Shares we do hold some in bp and shell in our portfolios, but longterm, we think oil will be in decline and those companies are going to have to restructure. I wouldnt say we are positive on oil in the long run. Shortterm, it is probably undervalued in terms of where the price is and demand collapsing. Longerterm, Battery Technology is probably going to replace a lot of what is happening and you are seeing Companies Like bp, which narrowly avoided a loss trying to restructure portfolios to get into that space. Those companies are doing investment, buyback. Shrinkll probably dramatically but hopefully can do so in a way that works for investors by returning capital and becoming more sustainable companies. You are still happy with them after they had to cut their dividend . Majors, the dividend is so sacrosanct. Without that, you dont really want to own them. Shanti a lot of Companies Cut their dividends. We looked at a lot of our stocks after the pandemic happened and went through the list and one of the things we wanted to look at is can they survive . Do they have a capital basis to get through it . Companies have issues but they are starting to address them. Cedednt think they would paying dividends forever. It was probably the right thing at the time because in march and april, we didnt know what the rest of the year would bring. In some ways, weve been able to adapt our economy and Society Better than expected, even though we have issues we are dealing with. Annmarie across europe, we are seeing fresh restrictions and potentially france even going to go harder on those restrictions into the weekend. You own lvmh. Thats really a play on a k shaped recovery. K shapedill see that recovery taking place, especially a with the resurgence of cases in europe . Shanti one of the things, if you look at the data that has come out, things like retail sales have held up pretty well. If you look at things like homebuying, people losing houses. While unemployment is up, there is a large percentage of the population that continues to be employed and earn income. The luxury sector is a play on those people continuing to have cash and continuing to spend. It is not one of our top picks by any means, but it is a stock we hold and they are a leader in that sector. Our main focus in terms of sectors we really like our health care and technology, and that we have represented across all our portfolios. Jonathan we appreciate your time this morning. Shanti kelemen, investment director at brown shipley. Equities, not bouncing back this morning in europe. Negative. 1 . Here is laura wright. Laura jack ma is poised to become the worlds 11th richest weren after group shares priced, stake in the fintech wealth hed over brings his wealth over 70 billion. Sands is considering the sale of casinos in its namesake city of las vegas. The gambling mogul is looking to focus on the asian market. The Worlds Largest Casino Company is looking to offer properties including the venetian resort, the logical, and others. Together, they may fetch 6 billion or more. A Clinical Trial of an antibody therapy from eli lilly wont be resuming. Concluded the drug likely wouldnt help hospitalized patients with advanced cases. It was initially halted due to safety concerns but the review did not find the treatment caused any harm. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Jonathan thank you very much. Coming up, a busy day. Santander surging on results. We count through the numbers next. 18 minutes into the session. The stoxx 600, marginally negative. Santander is where the price action is, up around 4. 33 in spain. From london, im Jonathan Ferro. This is bloomberg. An evaluation at the backend end of this year, early next year on the Economic Outlook. Engage with regulators in due course, but the market should expect us to start conservatively. Hsbcs cfo discussing a conservative or return to dividends. The news this morning for banks, pretty positive from hsbc and santander. Lets recap the latest earnings with dani burger. Isnt it remarkable the reaction from these european banks in the market versus what we saw from the u. S. Big lenders a couple weeks ago . Rallying more, than 5 . Lower than expected loan losses, better estimates when it comes to their profits for the saying thed citi loanloss picture helped them and the market handling the dividend story well. Hsbc, saying they want to get back to the dividends, as the a more saying, albeit conservative data and cash dividend. Conservative dividend. There is a lingering question over hsbc getting back to the dividend. Their capital picture and Balance Sheets, still improving. There,e agm percent and the stock up 4 . Hsbc saying we want to get back to dividends, but santander, giving out their plan for how they are going to distribute the payouts and at t he agm, shareholders voting on the plan. In earnings, they had a stronger Balance Sheet, better results in the americas, lower loanloss provisions and you were talking to the cfo earlier who reiterated his idea that the ecb will allow them to get back to Dividend Payments. Lets take a listen. Dividendsneral ban on has proven to be negative for the sector. I think it is also at the same difficult to differentiate amongst banks because you can , negativeesired perception on some institutions so what we believe is they will allow for a small but general Dividend Payment for the sector as a whole. Santander, moving higher by more than 4 . Bbba, also higher, likely piggybacking off of santanders earnings. Up 2. 5 ininally, bp london trading. What is the story . Dani big banks, big oil, all moving positive. After a moving higher betterthanexpected profit for the quarter. All of their core results, a wellrounded picture. One of the keys here is there to investments. There do best mens divestments. A profit of 86 million. The consensus was 117 million loss. They are chipping away at their net debt. That is giving some confidence to the market that they will also have a stronger dividend picture. Jonathan thank you. The stock positive this morning. On the year, bp, down 56. 5 . Big energy has found it difficult through 2020. Annmarie they certainly have and while this is a bit better than what was expected, the refining margins are going to be difficult for the majors as is the trading environment. They made so much money off of those plays, buying oil cheap, selling it at a higher price. That has calmed down. It will be hard for them to turn a profit. Jonathan lets get to the broader markets. 26 minutes into the session in europe, approaching the opening bell in the United States. , down. 4 , the ftse 100 off. 2 . Around. 1 . Res, a mild bounce. In europe, we dont get any bounce whatsoever. Next, a confirmation yesterday and an election in a week. We will run you through what you need to know out of washington, d. C. One week away from that election, with equity markets starting to look a little more nervous. From london, alongside Annmarie Hordern, im Jonathan Ferro. This is bloomberg. Jonathan 30 minutes into the opening bell, price action tuesday morning. Alongside Annmarie Hordern, i am Jonathan Ferro. 4 on the decks. The stoxx 600, materials, industrials, bottom of the pile. Eurodollar, a break of 1. 18. 1. 1796. Efly, that just coming into the mix, annemarie. Annmarie it certainly is. We are now back at one at 1. 18. Getting a little bit of pressure, isnt it, jonathan . Jonathan just around the equity open. We rolled over a little bit. A little bit more on that still to come. First word news with laura wright. Laura oris johnson is facing pressure over his pandemic policies. Within 50 members of his own conservative party are demanding a clear route out of lockdown. The mps are warning his pandemic strategy is disproportionately damaging the economy in the north, deepening the divide with the south. President Emmanuel Macron is with hiswidening rift crackdown on radical islam. Is calling foran a boycott on goods. The recent tensions were sparked by the murder of a french teacher. Womens groups are ramping up protests in poland after the country seven top court tragically banned abortion. Demonstrators blocked key roads and bridges in warsaw and there cities and other cities, bringing traffic to a halt. It marks global news 24 hours a day, on air and at Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Thank. N a week to go in till the election. President trump and former Vice President biden hitting the campaign trail once again to make their final pitches to voters. Pres. Trump covid, covid, covid. Thats all they talk about, the fake news. What progress we have made on it, too. We understand it. We know we have to protect our seniors, especially when they have heart, diabetes, problems, and we have the best testing in the world. That is why we show more cases, because we have better testing than anybody else. We are doing great. Excuse me, here i am, right . Mr. Biden the bottom line is donald trump is the worst possible resident president , the worst possible person to try to lead us through this pandemic. He doesnt have any idea what to do, or he just doesnt care. Jonathan joining us is our u. S. Politics editor kathleen hunter. A week ago, 16 million americans have already voted. It is a week until the vote wraps up. Where do things stack up . Kathleen i think what we are seeing is, particularly on trumps part, and attempts of arm storm the country, particularly in the battleground states. That strategy is based around the idea that he has embraced throughout this race, that he is going to win if he can get his core, loyal base of supporters riled up into the polls. He has run a base campaign, and we are seeing that by him going out and doing inperson rallies, falling back on his 2016 strategy. I think that obviously a lot of it remains to be seen whether that strategy is successful. But i think he is doubling down on that right now. Yesterday Amy Coney Barrett got sworn in, cementing in a 63 conservative majority on the supreme court. To this mean we will seek potentially more of those evangelical christians that have supported the Trump Campaign and coming up to boost his numbers . Kathleen i think the barrett conversation confirmation yesterday was a boost for both parties. Maybe not as much as republicans, but certainly quite a bit. While this is a benefit for trump, i think there is a benefit to biden as well, in particular perhaps for biden among liberal voters. The difference between biden and whop, trump is someone resonates deeply with the far right of the republican party. Biden has had some trouble in his left flank. In this case, the barrett confirmation, there is an argument that it helps that base. Jonathan lets talk about the next weekend where these guys are going. We talked a little bit about this briefly yesterday. Texas, biden to georgia. The stakes were made in 2016 with the clinton campaign. Is it possible that this campaign is making similar his stake yeah cap similar mistake . As youn clinton, alluded to, was widely criticized for ignoring michigan , for example. I think that certainly anytime you try to look at the map of candidates, you open yourself up to monday morning quarterback and, that you didnt spend enough time in states that you needed to and states that maybe you just took for granted. There are some significant differences this year. I think we are seeing biden with a significant fundraising advantage. Very seeing battleground polls that are not tightening in the same way that they were in 2016. We are all going to be looking at this in a weeks time or eight or nine days time, with a different perspective on it. There it does signal that at least the Biden Campaign things that they are with able to withstand the map. Annmarie the other major story in d. C. Is the stimulus merrygoround. What is the latest, or should we not even care anymore . Kathleen i think we can finally put a fork in this until after the election. Dissent has left town, the house had already left town. Everyone is focused on campaigning. The big take away from these three months of acrimonious negotiations that didnt end up yielding before the election is that both sides have a clearer sense of where the other side stands in terms of the negotiating posture so they can pick this up after the election, and the significant thing that will be different after the election is that we will know which side has the leverage. Which is something we dont know right now. There has been an incentive for both sides to wait until after the election to see if there negotiating position has improved and go from there. Jonathan great to catch up. Kathleen hunter joining us on the election race with a week to go. Price action, 37 minutes into the session, the ftse has been treading water, the stoxx 600 is lower, up by. 5 . 40. Re up by. 9 on the cac s p 500 futures just about inching higher, around. 1 . I want to bring you the bond market and give you a feel of treasuries. Treasury market really big yesterday, 10year yields coming in, this morning still in and around 80 basis points. Is u. S. 10 year, your yield 0. 801 . We hear from the ceo of novartis next. From london, this is bloomberg. Jonathan 41 minutes until the session. Were positive going into the cash open. We have come out of cash open and just rolled over on the cac. 9 , the dax off by. 4 . The s p 500 inching higher, up. 1 . I went to check on 10 year treasuries. Talked about that briefly a moment ago. Your 10 year yield, 0. 8 . We have not unwound it tuesday morning. Similar story for the german bund. 10year, negative 58 basis points. 1. 8 1. 1811. With your Bloomberg Business flash, heres laura wright. Laura santander has rebounded with a profit that beat estimates. That helps its case and convincing regulators that its Balance Sheet is Strong Enough to resume dividends. The big boost for santander came from its operation is in brazil. Hsbc has beat profit has not targets for this quarter. It is conserving it is considering a conservative payout. 35,000 planned job cuts. Bp has narrowly avoided a thirdquarter loss, but the surprise profit may not change the glue be outlook for the gloomy outlook for big oil. Pandemic restrictions took their toll, and the Trading Division was not able to cushion the blows this time after reporting poor results in the last quarter. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Morning, cautious optimism on the state of europe from the ceo of novartis. Optimism continuing to strike a difficult balance between we will have to see her Health Care Systems gravel grapple with the next wave of a pandemic. Health care systems have learned how to manage the cases better, keep getting cases in for the care that they need. Overall we are cautiously optimistic. Jonathan walk me through that cautious optimism. How much of an ability do you have at this moment, that the momentum of the stability has continued . Visitsen you look at the of patients into the health care system, what we saw over the course of the summer was a slow recovery from the significant debt that happened in april, close to 60 or 70 reductions in allocation and health care visits. In september, that almost normalized. Slighty october we saw a dip again, but pretty close to precovid levels. They vary based on the individual therapeutic area. Some therapeutic areas are very hardhit, others are able to manage better. I think overall elf ministers, Health Care Systems have realized what we cannot afford is a second epidemic with respect to covid. The stepping the second epidemic of noncommunicable diseases cancer, cardiovascular disease is because auge toll large section of the population suffers from these conditions. We need to tackle covid as the cases arise and continue to maintain as close as possible, normal operations of Health Care Systems. Are one of my last in person interviews, and my last time traveling to switzerland. I want you to put on a different hat now. You worked on the h1n1 vaccine. When we had a mumps vaccine in the late 1960s, it was crazy how quickly we got there. Four years. Are we getting ahead of ourselves, talking about a vaccine at the end of 2021 . Find novelhard to medicines and vaccines. In this case we are searching for a vaccine against a respiratory virus, which in the experience of vaccine developers, i myself have a history of vaccine development. It has proven a challenging. What we can reasonably hope for is to start to generate data, and im hopeful by the end of next year we will have solid data on a hopefully on hopefully multiple vaccines, with reasonable efficacy and have adequate volumes of the medicine to be able to treat large populations around the world. What i am more confident about is what we will continue to see, incremental improvements in patient care, slowly and surely better medicines to manage patients in the icu, manage patients in the hospital, continue to get the severity rates down on covid, and the world will be able to than manage this pandemic and manage getting back to a more normal way of living. Narasimhan, the ceo of novartis. A bay week. We hear from the ceos of eli lilly, pfizer, and merck. Sam, fantastic to catch up with you. Your view on the earnings so far, and what youre looking for in the numbers in the days ahead. Sam very nice to talk to you. So obviously novartis delivered kind of what we were hoping they might do after looking through the Second Quarter results. On the top line, there was a slight mess. There was pressure in several areas, but what they really did do well at is managing costs and reducing costs. So the beat on eps and the rays on operating profit forecast is pretty much to do with lower costs, which seems to be, if you can possibly ever say we are learning from the pandemic as we have pharmaceutical companies, the costs to them in selling their products come is reduced. Everyone has learned how to use telemedicine and accelerated cost savings. So that is where we are happy to see this. With other companies who might follow suit, Different Companies have different attitudes when it comes to using telemedicine, but it was very interesting listening to him, with the unraveling of the wave two or wave three, or wherever we are. What vas picking up on narasimhan said, he said the world needs to stay humble when it comes to a vaccine. He wants the data for the end of next year, and then we are also going to have to figure out how we massproduce this. Where are we right now in the race for a vaccine . Sam i listened very carefully a his choice of words, and vaccine available at volume with good data, several vaccines with safety data yes, hes right. That is pretty much into the second half of next year. But i think before the end of the year, we will have some news, whether positive or not, that we will see on the particularly pfizer vaccine, potentially modernas vaccine, and also astrazenecas trial in the u. K. , as to how well they have done in these settings. Yes, hes right. These diseases are tough to treat or prevent with regards to vaccinations. Jonathan this conversation was briefly about scaling up some of the treatment, scaling up some of the vaccines. How quickly can we scale up a vaccine, get the Production Capacity out there, get it distributive widely . If we see something good come in november, december time, how quickly can that happen . Sam a lot of that depends on how many vaccines we end up having. It is basically if it is pfizer and moderna at work, the pledge for doses in 2021 is something around 2 billion. Lets say that the world turns into this enormously cooperatively friendly place in every rarity starts working together and giving up as much manufacturing facility as possible. Maybe we can get that to 3 billion or 4 billion. I am completely speculating. Obviously not enough to cover the entire world, but it depends on how many vaccines succeed and for whom and where. You dont need to vaccinate everybody to get a good result. Jonathan sam, great to catch up with you. Sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. With equities lower in europe, once again the equity market breaking down by about. 6 in paris on the decks. In frankfurt, we unwind some morning losses, down to her about. 1 there. 500 looking flat, the s p picking up a little bit. We events 2. 2 . They are asking what assets will move most on election morning. That conversation coming up next. This is bloomberg. Jonathan 52 minutes in the session, equities back a little bit. We are buying some of the negativity in the early part of the session, almost dead flat. The cac 40 off by. 6 . Time, we get Consumer Confidence at 2 00 p. M. Deep into earnings season, looking for numbers out from eli lilly and pfizer later on. , our macroow, laura strategist. Walk us through the day. Laura i think what markets are looking for when we wake up next wednesday is whether we will actually see a clear winner. Whether we know who will actually be the next resident of the United States. I think markets have shifted, positioning away from contested election risks. Can more of that blue wave inflation trade takeover. If that is the case on wednesday, it is likely to be the case that we are going to andthat bearish narrative race continue to play out so the curve steepening, extending. The potential for 10 year treasuries to reach the 1 threshold. Of course, depending on whether the fed steps into buy duration. In the equity market, the fact that we will see this rotation take hold away from the secular growers like those tech stocks, to the cyclically exposed smallcap stocks. If there is clarity in terms of the election outcome, i would expect to see kind of the sentiment bid in europe. We are seeing these rising virus buts counts away, ultimately it should be if we do see less protectionist trade policies. Crucially, i think it depends on the outcome and whether there a contested election or not. Markets are not really positioned for that right now. Annmarie jonathan and i were talking yesterday about how currencies, the mexican peso would do well in a biden win, but the ruble will not do so much for but the pace it will not do so much. Laura clearly the fact that we see high beta currencies like the euro, like the canadian dollar, catch bids on this election clarity. It is likely to be the case that we could see the eurodollar pair breakthrough that psychological one. 20 level. I think that is kind of a consensus trade at this stage. I think when we look to bond markets, i expected investors are likely positioned for that underperformance in treasuries. Notably when we look against the core european bonds those are likely to come under pressure as well. Just on the fact that some of these unwind of haven bids, ultimately i would expect that given the fact that a reflation trade under a biden win is likely to provide more stimulus down the line, that that could play up more in treasuries than elsewhere. So certainly if there is a trump presidency, i would expect it to be the case that the dollar could catch a bid on this renewed uncertainty, and ultimately for the status quotes trades status quo trades that we continue to purchase. There,n laura cooper bloombergs mliv macro strategist. Annmarie, i anticipate that whatever the price action will be, that on november 4 we will find a narrative that fits neatly and to strap elite it out. In 2016 we were sitting alongside guy johnson, and it was all about the acceptance speech for president donald trump, president elect at that point. He talked about infrastructure spending, the policy emphasis. That drove markets for the next several months. That is what is going to be key on the morning of the election if we have the results. What is the tone, where is the emphasis . Annmarie we are seven days away from getting that speech or eight days, given that it will be the fourth. Jonathan, 65 Million People have voted, and the story today has to be biden heading for georgia, isnt it . Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Coming up on bloomberg best, the stories that shaped his misses around the world. Thank you for having me today. This really builds a conglomerate