Tom francine, did you stay up and watch this . Francine i went to sleep and set an alarm to wake up. It is a bit messed up. That ist talk today, why. Tom for an international audience, to be kind, it was absolutely original. My goal today come cross the hours of surveillance, is to spin forward. Do you realize we are going to do this on october 15, in miami, with the great steve scully of cspan, in a town hall format. I cant get my head around that, but thats what we will do with Bloomberg Politics and david westin and s kevin cirilli, to recoup and prepare for the eyes of october. Francine the focus is on the polls. We had an initial post it will be interesting over the next 24 hours. We will have Leslie Vinjamuri on, polls. Leslie was tweeting last night around four clock a. M. I think she was in a pub with ferro. I dont know what she was doing. Francine lets get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika it was billed as the first president ial debate, but in cleveland things quickly slipped into chaos. Insults drowned out ideas. At one point President Trump and joe biden battled over the coronavirus. It was a he knew deadly disease. What did he do . Hes on tip acknowledging he knew it. He said he did not tell us or give people a warning because he did not want to panic the american people. You dont panic, he panicked. Pres. Trump weve done a great job. The only thing i havent done a good job, that is because of the fake news. They give you bad press. They give me bad press. They give you good press, they give me bad press. I dont care, i have gotten used to it. You could never have done the job we did. Mr. Biden i know how to do the job, i know how to get the job done. Pres. Trump you didnt do very well with swine. Ritika Chris Wallace kept trying, mostly in vain, to control the conversation. Plan2. 2 trillion to most is aimed at breaking talks with the republican administration. Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin are still trying to come up with a compromise deal. Senate democrats Want Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett to promise to recuse yourself from cases related to the 2020 election come after President Trump says the court might decide the outcome. Supreme Court Justices decide themselves whether to step away from a case. In the u. K. , Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to regain control of his coronavirus strategy. His conservative colleagues have warned him that he faces a damaging defeat on covid regulations today unless he gives parliament more authority to scrutinize the powers. Johnson had to apologize for wrongly explaining the government set up a new pandemic restrictions. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. We have claims tomorrow, jobs day on friday, really interesting, mentioning very challenging layoffs at disney, dow futures 236 2. 36. The vix, 26. 86. Bonds are dead, but the real yield we will explain this through the hours today it has come back down to a greater negative statistic. It was at negative one,. 995. That is a huge deal. I want to point out the twoyear is to point 1211. That has brown down on four digits to a new lower twoyear yield. Francine we do spend more time looking at fixed income, especially in europe. There are a couple of things going on, given that Christine Lagarde says she could look it bit more to what the fed is doing and let inflation overshoot to make sure she achieved that target. Global investors are keeping an eye on the vaccine, coronavirus. We are getting some updates in washington for stimulus. There does seem to be a bit of an uneasy feeling, or at least the fact that the debate highlighted the risk of a contested vote in november. Futures down, european stocks are down 0. 2 percent. Last night the first president ial debate slipped into chaos as President Trump and nominee joe biden hurled insults and repeatedly interrupted each other. They sparred over topics ranging from the virus and President Trumps taxes to china and the economy. Crisis and General Motors are back in the state of michigan. He blew it. They are gone. Pres. Trump michigan had the best year they have ever had. Mr. Biden that is not true. Companiesp any car went to michigan, went to ohio. Mr. Vice president , go ahead. Deals are therade same way. He talks about these great trade deals, the art of the deal. China has perfected the art of the steel. Have a higher deficit with china and we have had before. Trump china eight your lunch, joe. Francine joining us now is Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House america director. Do we care about who won or who did not win the debate . Does it move the polls, or was it very difficult because it was bickering . Leslie it was a really tough debate to watch. Turnedne a lot of people the television off pretty quickly because they were talking over each other, but they did cover a number of topics. They didnt see anything through. But remember, more than 90 of voters already have made up their minds. How widelyrprising viewed the debate was given that fact. The real goal of the debate was to see how enthusiastic voters might be at the end of it to ensure that they turn out votes, especially an issue for Vice President biden, where Younger Voters support him but they are not all that enthusiastic. One question is, how did they come out of this . I think probably very frustrated. Really stoked fear over the legitimacy of mailin ballotsnd mailin last week when he refused to say to say it on the back of that very long segment where he talked about problems of violence, the lack of law order in democratic run cities there is a real effort to stoked fear. Difficult to say what that does to public opinion. But most people know where they stand. The other thing i would add, Vice President biden, i think the moment when he became most passionate was partly in discussion about health care. He managed to move that conversation about the Supreme Court, which really plays to the president s favor, moved it to the discussion of health care and the pandemic very quickly, and he was passionate talking about his plans for lima change. This is a key area where the candidates for climate change. This is a key area where the candidate differ most sharply. Francine how will each side speak to their candidates to change their performance in the next debate . Leslie ive got to believe that President Trumps advisors will caution him to listen, to wait, to hold back. He should have something that is more helpful to him. Behink that the caution will to be careful in regard to white supremacists. This was a truly awful moment in the debate. Be cautious with how far you push the questions, allegations of fraud. It is give fulton know where the advice is on that, but i think it is a really serious question. Know, thek, you caution for both candidates will be dry as you can to listen, otherwise respect for Vice President biden if you dont talk over President Trump, it is not clear that you can get a word in edge wise. I suspect that some of it is very concrete advice to Vice President biden. Tom thank you for pulling an allnighter for us. It is great to have you here, it is just like college. I want to push forward to miami and a town hall meeting. I think there will be a lot of punditry on this, and what we will see from Vice President biden with the polling, etc. , or bite and maybe could take florida. Is the president coachable . Is the president advisable by his professional political team, or directly by his family . Leslie you know, this requires a level of expertise that im not sure any of us have. But i believe we have all been watching him very carefully for the past four years and longer and i believe that you can see those moments where in his mind he is hearing the advice of the people around him, where you can see him flustered and frustrated, where he is holding back. The problem is it is that impulse control, that thing that we all teach our children, we all work throughout our careers interrupt,t mean to leslie, but this is so important. Was that the same donald trump that we saw on stage with the first debate with secretary clinton four years ago, or is he so changed with the pressures of the office, in mr. Woodwards word, rage, at last night had nothing to do with the president s polish of four years ago . Leslie i think the issue here is that this is the president on the back foot to keep at least 7 down in the polls. He knows this is a tough election. He is losing on the issues he cares most about the economy. He is losing on the pandemic. He got hit by a crisis that for him, it didnt come out of left field. He would like us to believe that it did. So he is on the attack, he is on the defense, and he shouldnt be. He is the incumbent president. He should be failing forward on this and he knows he is not. So i think youre right, he is clearly that she has clearly got a he has clearly got a lot of rage and is struggling to contain it. It will be interesting to see what happens over the course of the next two debates. It is not that obvious. Francine leslie, thank you so much for all the insight, Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House u. S. Program director. Coming up next, we speak with Rick Lacaille. We will talk to him about how to play the u. S. Elections, and we will talk with him about brexit and negative rates. This is bloomberg. It is not about moving the goal post where it is suitable. It is about future proofing how we measure inflation. We also need to recognize that adjustments will have issues in terms of reliability and frequency of data. Francine that was ecb president Christine Lagarde, speaking earlier in frankfurt. Joining us to talk about the market is Rick Lacaille, global chief investment officer. Thank you for joining surveillance. Im not sure whether i should start by asking about the ecb and the possible change to inflation goes with Christine Lagarde wanting to overshoot it a bit to make sure she hits it, or whether that could really change the direction of the markets. Rick i think the last time we spoke, it was just after the announcement of policy, and i think the overshooting leg which had been quite the same, but i think the concept is similar, that we need to look at a variety of frequency of data and think about what is sustainable policy. If you take that coupled with the ecb allowing collateral sustainable bond issues, ecb and lagardere becoming clearer quite possibly for investors. Francine doesnt mean that we will have more qe . This was a dove speech from Christine Lagarde this money. Rick i think the expectations of qe policy, clearly that will depend on a number of factors. But i think you have a very supportive ecb, a very concerned ecb about how the chronic phase of the pandemic is emerging and what else can be done. But they have done a lot of credit already and i guess they will be doing more given the lack of concern about inflation. Tom we are distracted by the silliness of the political season. What i observe in breakevens across the western world and the 10yeari see in and twoyear german dynamics is that we have this inflation and deflation. Is that trend now entrenched, and do we have to adapt to it in our investment . Rick we have had that adaptation for a long time, and i think you pointed out earlier, we have got real yields at extraordinarily low levels, negative interest rates, negative real yields. That is enforcing investors to think about where they are going to get returns strong. It is not a willynilly for spread assets, squeezed into those that are available. There are some good ones available. If you look at Chinese Government bonds, Mexican Government bonds and currencies, those currencies are not overvalued. There is opportunities and even close to home in europe, european high yields i think having gone through a number of phases, it is emerging as the best asset class for many fixed income investors. A european risk on highyield, or at can you easily diversify the risk away . Rick you can diversify more than you used to be able to. If you went back five or 10 years ago, it was an immature market. There were more issues and sectors now. The sectors that look like value to some extent, industrials, some of the things that have not been working well in the equity market, but you can diverse by that you can diversify, you can diversify. Depending on who gets into the white house, what does it mean for european equities . Forow germany has braced extra terrorist from the Trump Administration for quite some time. Will they come in the second term . Rick yeah, europe could still be playing catchup. It has had a reasonably good controllable chronic phase with the pandemic. Incrediblyna is helpful for europe, and chinese data continues to get somewhat better. In terms of a trump or biden presidency, you may have a strong swing towards green sustainable policies, and that may be helpful for europe or at least parts of industrial europe to export into the u. S. But i think the Trump Presidency brings with it this potential for a little bit of selfhelp in europe, a recognition that it needs to navigate more effectively. Tom Rick Lacaille with us. We are thrilled that he is here. After the cacophony of last night, it is nice to talk about the twoyear or the 10year spread as more civil discourse. Hour, fired up. Nouriel roubini of new york not only on the American Economic politics, but a good time to speak to dr. Roubini about the tensions from turkey to israel. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Futures 30. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im her ticket cooped up im her take a good to. Boeing will move all of its 787 dreamliners to souths to south carolina. That is a blow to the boeing uniteds workforce. Will be employees affected by the move, no word. Acquiring a significant footprint in online gambling. The board of william hill has excepted a 3. 7 billion dollars takeover bill from caesars, representing a 25 premium to the British Company before bloomberg reported takeover interest friday. Apple is giving ceo new equity words that could provide him with as many as one million shares by 2025, which could be worth up to 140 million for cook. The first equity award he has received since becoming ceo in 2011. Tim cook became a billionaire earlier this year. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you so much. U. S. Equity futures are down along with european stocks. European stocks are down 0. 2 percent. It was pretty acrimonious, the debate, and i guess there is a bet in the market that it could lead to a contested vote. Higher. Ber, the gauge treasuries holding steady. Tomorrow, to claims thursday, then onto jobs day on friday. Right now a little less of a turn then what we saw yesterday. Yields come income of the digits, yield to four. 1211. That is 5, 6, 7 days in a row in. Nouriel roubini will join us in the next hour. Turkey, 7. 78, a little better than the carnage yesterday, but certainly things are very fragile there. Looking quickly, argentinian peso, 76. 1 one, underscoring the troubles in argentina and moving forward as well. Michael mckee with mr. Barkan of richmond. Everyone stopped by mckinsey for a two year stint. Not thomas barkin. Mr. Tom barkin Holding Court in thery different fit, richmond fed. Thomas barkin with michael mckee. This is extremely well timed. We are looking at all the different speakers out there. Tom barkin always organized in consulting the american economy. Futures at 34. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. My take on what is going to is anythingber 3 can happen. Win, can win, biden can there can be confusion and chaos for days, but maybe weeks or longer about who is going to be the next president. When people distrust everything, especially the media, trumps voice is the most recognizable in the world. Then people can hear it for themselves. Woodward with a generous interview. The newsmaking was he did not want to release the tapes of his conversations with the president and his wife and someone at cnn pushed him to do that. That has changed the range from just another book to an immediacy of direct quotes from the president. We saw that last night in this debate. Aboute been talking investment, finance, maybe economics. Big fanaile, i am not a of linking politics into investment decisions, but clearly we have a trumpbiden wall of worry. Thoseoes that mean for trying to allocate capital . It is mainly in the equity implied volatility. Well behaved, so you could say credit markets, looking at Central Banks and the level of support that come, we are a little overweight. In ank we are factoring substantial level of disruption around the election, but it is not going to last forever. The most interesting thing is how sectors perform. Whether it is u. S. Sectors or europe, you see an enormous range of outcomes. You sought in the last election and you will see it with this one. Whether it is health care, utilities, industrials, there are going to be interesting plays. Here m typing out obamacare. I always call it the Affordable Care act. Bit of the little same discussion last night about the view forward for health care. Does state street global have equal weight or a befuddlement of health care equities . I think we have a technical difficulty. Tom i caused that. Francine i think we do. , andll do a markets check then try to get rick back on the line. Tom some of the things thank you some of the things we see in the markets today and in the jobs, i am going to go to the bond market where mr. Lacaile was noted. The control room. No one slept last night and they and 10s. Th the twos 1. 42. Stock at a the real yield comes at a. 9931. That is a greater negative yield over the last 24 hours. Francine we got the data check on time. Tom either that or my third scotch. [laughter] francine recalibrating some positions on the final day. Something we need to look out for is shares following premarket trading did say 28 on the will be let go. Is one of the deepest workforce reductions in the covid19 era. Look out for disney, and may be some repercussions in the lesser industry. Tom im glad you brought it up. These are big numbers. Are numbered by covid numbed by covid, but keep in mind these are numbers beginning to add up into the millions and unemployed. Ritika gupta. Ritika last nights president ial debate made one thing clear, the two candidates cant stand each other. President trump encz joe biden hurled insults throughout the hour and a half long event. He is a liar. I just want to make sure pres. Trump [indiscernible] can you let him finish . He doesnt know how. Youd be surprised. The wrong guy at the wrong time. You agreed with Bernie Sanders. [indiscernible] you just lost the left. You just lost the left. You agreed with Bernie Sanders on a plan absolutely agreed to [indiscernible] Ritika Ritika moderator Chris Wallace try to stay in control but had little success. Wideranging imu Immigration Enforcement arrests would take place in cities and jurisdictions that have adopted socalled sanctuary policies. As apple flying the president s Law Order Campaign message. United airlines among several carriers taking months to stay afloat. Loans are capped at 7. 5 billion each. Companies accepting the loans are required to put icap on executive pay and must offer the government equity. Disney is making one of the biggest job cuts of the coronavirus era. The Worlds Largest Entertainment Company is cutting 28,000 workers. In its theme parks and cruise lines. Two thirds of those are parttime workers. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. , this iska gupta bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. Lets go back to rick nouirel roubini rick lacaile. I do not what you do with swiss franc right now. Could you repeat the question . Francine swiss franc. Given the conversation we were having on inflation, what do you do with some of these haven currencies . Rick i think the havens have changed. At the moment, it is the yen. We are quite long on the end. The u. S. Dollar has been a haven. We have to look at it as a long run haven, but we have a bearish position on the u. S. Dollar for the time being. That allows us more space in terms of risk budgets going long. It is not easy to find safe haven. That is what you have got gold a lot of portfolios as well. You mentioned sterling, are we going to see negative rates in the u. K. . Rick it is a close run thing, but i think not. I think there is institutional reluctance and a big concern over issues just as in the u. S. I would assign a low probability to that in the u. K. Tom rick lacaile, thank you so much. We are sorry for the technical difficulties here and we will try to straighten that out for the rest of the morning. The markets, 31. Dow futures 267. Michael wilson, morgan stanley, we get an update on the back and forth with mike wilson. The equity view of morgan stanley. Sleepless in cleveland. This is bloomberg. If we would have listened to you, the country would have been left wide open. Millions would have died. Peopleeen 750 and a 1000 a day are dying. He said it is what it is. It is what it is because you are who you are. Many of your democrat governors said President Trump did a phenomenal job. We got the gowns, we made the ventilators, you would not have made ventilators and now we are weeks away from a vaccine. You should get out of your and bring together the democrats and republicans and find what needs to be done now to save lives. You could never have done the job we did. We would have delivered right away. Our military delivers soldiers. Man who allhe same said by easter this would be gone. By the warm weather it would be gone, like a miracle. Maybe if you inject bleach in your arm, that would take care of it. Tom even more painful to relive it this morning. Good morning everyone. From new york and london, Francine Lacqua and tom keene. The highlight of the debate for me was the understanding by the president that those losers the Philadelphia Eagles have to play the 49ers. Kevin cirilli joins us, our chief washington correspondent. Bad things happen in philadelphia. Look at kevin. Politicians dont say bad things happen in any given constituency, do they . Kevin good morning to you too tom. [laughter] it was a brutal debate. If youone moment drown out all the noise and cut to the chase and focus on what is lying ahead, the final five minutes of that debate really set the stage for the next, dare i say, two months. President trump and joe biden both vowed to fight if it means ending up in the Supreme Court. It means in compensating encompassing the Supreme Court nomination in amy barrett. That was my biggest take away. You had President Trump dig in, bite and dig in in their own respective ways. The waylly could go all to december and that is a lot of volatility lumped into a Supreme Court battle. What will we learn or accumulate in knowledge before Steve Scalise does a town meeting in miami october 15 . How much more knowledgeable about this race will we be that evening . Kevin i dont want to the throat it was so loud and confusing. Standpoint, the Biden Campaign with their strategy last night went after the working class of vote. It showed a confidence in the biden cafe to try to make Biden Campaign to win over the stronghold. As a result, when joe biden gets on an amtrak in the coming days and tours parts of ohio and one student and western trying toia, he is make inroads not with the farleft and the base, but interim country. I said to conor lamb, who is in the inner orbit of joe biden, i said you flipped the trump district in 2018. What did you do that Hillary Clinton didnt do . He said he talked about pensions and the economy. At this point, with all of the show and tell and the theatrics, the bad theater of the president ial debate, it is going to come down to those messages. Do we see it in the polls . Is it too soon to see it in the polls . Largely mademinds up . Are peoples minds made up . Kevin i spoke with mark meadows, the president s chief of staff, about the strategy for the president and where they feel they are going. They are going to double down on the base. Last nights debate was so incredibly toxic, you have to wonder whether or not people who are undecided, or people who sometimes dont vote, if they are going to be motivated. That thing was so brutal. You start to question whether or not there will be a massive turnout. Frank once said that, by the way, one of the best pollsters in the business nailed it in terms of the debilitating effect that this toxicity could have on some of those voters who are going to say i am turning this off. What will the candidates change in the next debate . Tone . Policy . The role of the moderator could be crucial. Kevin of cspan who has the next debate in about two weeks, next week is the Vice President ial debate and then we had to florida where they have the second president ial debate. If you studyolicy, the transcript last night, we were able to glean some new detail about the dynamic that the Biden Administration would like to have on Something Like Energy Policy where he said, as it relates to coal industry, there are normal there are no newer coal plants. He is continuing a shift to renewable energy. That might not play well in battleground states where fracking is important. Was the treat of the night david burks of the New York Times with his laptop open and Three Fingers of scotch trying to get through the evening. David brooks speaks to the suburban voter in this country. What did the suburban marginal voters take away from last nights theater . Bad Reality Television reunion. I am not true you can. If you move it forward, i think it was a toxic debate. It was incredibly difficult to glean any policy substantial discussion. A the end of the day, this is someical moment and what suburbs are deciding is that this could be a prolonged battle. Tom one more question, you have ,een killing it in cleveland who is coaching the president . Who is advising him . Is it immediate family . Kevin Rudy Giuliani traveled with the president. Jim jordan, Freedom Caucus members who traveled with the president. I said, how is his mood . What is the vibe . She said rudy had everybody laughing. He was in good spirits. Rudy giuliani has the president s ear. Tom get some sleep and move on. He will be with us through the day across all bloomberg. He has a Radio Program tonight which i am sure will be something. Kevin cirilli in cleveland. Futures 31. Dow futures 273. Vicks 2788. The senator from tennessee on Bloomberg Technology in the 5 00 hour. David westin at 12 00 this is bloomberg. Ritika i am ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. It could be the biggest utility deal in history. Made anenergy unsuccessful bid to take over duke energy. Next year is the largest utility owner by market value. The company is still interested in a deal. Shares of Micron Technology are low. Maker hast u. S. Chip halted shipments to huawei, its biggest customer. They also cut Capital Spending plans and forecast possible oversupply. Chinas ecommerce giant, sees its Cloud Services unit turning profitable for the first time. Alibaba says the business is growing roughly 60 a year, a sign that asias Largest Corporation expects a return to prepandemic levels. That is the latest. Francine thanks so much. Is imf managing director more optimistic. She also says recovery is partial and uneven. The Carlyle Group chairman and cofounder David Rubenstein spoke to her about the Global Economy and the ways working remotely has impacted the organization. As we talk at the imf headquarters, it is relatively quiet because of the pandemic. People are working remotely. Are you generally working remotely . Decision13, we took a to work remotely. This decisionned because conditions are still such that for the safety of ought to continue to expect work. It has been amazingly successful. We are doing much more because of the crisis. We are doing it working remotely. It does have downsides. Never go back to the way we were. We will never have so many people sitting here in these offices. We now know that they can be very productive working from home. We will be striving to have 5050 on any day being telecommuting. What are economists telling you about the state of the economy . Are we likely to have a global recession for another year or so . On twoave some optimism grounds. The first is exceptionally Decisive Action by Central Banks and finance authorities. They put the floor under the worlds economy. Part for theour countries that have more resources of their own. We areond reason somewhat more optimistic today than we were a couple of months world that we see the learning how to function with the pandemic still with us. But make no mistake, the partial and uneven. In 2020ot going to see 21 in 2021, a return to precovered conditions. We see divergence. Parts of the economy doing well, and parts falling behind. This is my biggest concern. Ofmay come on the others this crisis with more inequality , higher debt, higher deficits, and the Climate Crisis still hanging on us. If we are trying, as a world, we ought to come together. And massive coordinated stimulus can make it so that we have a better economy on the others the then we had in 2019. Tom managing director of the International Monetary fund from bulgaria. Tonight, 9 00 p. M. , look for that conversation. That will be on the 7 00 thursday in hong kong and london. David rubenstein. Futures 26. Dow futures 230. Next, nouirel roubini on economic politics. This is bloomberg. Morning, there is only one question. Can you stand another two debates . Rancor,he rage and biden and trump debated debatable points. Mr. Biden often turned to the camera and spoke to the nation. Mr. Spoke to the moderator. Survived the debate, did you . No debating bonds, they are dead in the water. I am wrong, the real yield returns to 1 . Shall, and shell, london near 9000. Jobs day is friday. Good morning everyone, this is bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua hanging on every word last night. As a general statement, was london riveted by the debate . Francine london is riveted because we have never seen anything like it. Participant,market you can get out of the debate