Less. The 30 year yield is interesting, it had a six basis point move earlier, probably the largest we have seen in any part of the curve recently. I want to point to the European Bank stocks index. It isn 6. 3 index down 6. 3 on the news of how banks are money laundering. An agency coming out saying this all proceeded their 2017 deferred agreement. We see how it progresses through the month. One stock to point to is universal health services, just an example of how Health Care Insurance and hospitals in particular are selling off today. Lets bring in Bloomberg Intelligence chief equity ategist jason Martin Adams Gina martin adams. Gina, if that had been your contention, how do you add in the death of Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg and how that will play out in the coming weeks and months into this market . Gina i think we already have a market that is pretty nervous about what is going on in washington with respect to the upcoming election upcoming election. Ago, we wereonth really pricing volatility to become more minimal once the election comes through. Our view is that 2020 is going to remain somewhat volatile probably through to the end. 2021,we start to see come but once stocks reach their peak, you historically see gains slow. Come and of august, we were due for rotation come and of august, we were due for rotation. Washington. Out of obviously this Financial Sector probe is adding to some nervousness on the part of the investment community. The thing you want to focus on is how broad is the decline. We are seeing some breath deterioration breath deterioration today, but prior, the s p 500 was only down 1 when you exclude tech. There is plenty of room to correct from what were pretty bloated conditions in august and we expect a choppy market continue market to continue right through the election. Vonnie it seems like every time we get elevated volatility, that is automatically lower for stocks. Can we also have stocks going higher with elevated volatility . And what you tend to find is that the late cycle rallies, known as melt up rallies or blowoff tops, stocks rise as volatility accelerates. You see average daily returns on the equity market increasing and you see volatility where the standard deviation of those returns increasing in the final years of a blowoff top. We saw this in the late 1990s and also in the late 1920s. There is very little evidence that that is happening now, even though we have had a very volatile year and prices are rising. You look at the last few years and basically prices have been flat with nearly 0 returns on average on a daily basis. Volatility has been high, but i think that volatility is a function of nervousness and a function of the ongoing sort of rolling collections we rolling corrections we have experienced since two thousand 16 more so than any evidence of a blowoff top emerging. Marty kaplan explained earlier today. Had that to do with the six basis point you saw at the long end, or is that another reason entirely . Gina i think that in the Financial Sector and general, there is nervousness around what will happen with Monetary Policy. How is Monetary Policy going to normalize . The fed has done their best to confirm that they will keep rates extremely low for a long period of time, but the equity markets seem to be more nervous about that outlook than the bond market. There could be a natural adjustment where markets come together somewhere in between. The equity market was nervous, the bond market was somewhat complacent. Maybe we need to have a volatility reset across the curve to recognize the fact that we do have some inflation pressures building. There is some improvement coming in the economy. I do not know how long the fed can keep rates suppressed in an environment in which inflation is starting to accelerate. Vonnie gina, what should we look out for in the coming days . If we had a no other if we had another day of selloff, should we expect stocks to start repairing those gains tomorrow . Gina it depends on where we end up in terms of our momentum selloff. We were waiting to hit oversold levels before we get more optimistic. This is the first day we have seen extensive, cross industry weakness in the s p 500 to suggest momentum may get to a by point, but we have three hours left in the trading day. I would use good old technical signals as good as anything for finding a bottom. You have to get a sentiment washout, momentum triggering extremes. Once we had momentum at overoptimistic extremes, it almost ensures you need to get to overly pessimistic extremes before you can start to find your way toward a bottom on the index. Vonnie i want to ask you about the banks, because certainly in europe we followed the index selloff. It is big today. It is bleeding into the u. S. Today. We have known about these reports for a long time. We may not have been able to get a close look at each individual report, but how damaging is this article that is obviously going to grow legs . Will there be more and more articles about this to these banks longterm . It is early days. I think we need to wait and explore and move through the reports and really get some more information before we draw too many conclusions. What i can say about the Financial Sector is there was not a lot of evidence of bankssm in financials or themselves prior to today, so we are starting to see some poor priceperformance in the securities, but there was no evidence of irrational optimism in the Financial Sector to start, so you would expect, as longtermis is not damaging, longterm true evidence of no various behavior in the financials, you would expect evidence of nefarious behavior in the financials, you would expected to be suppressed to start with, but it is too early to tell. I am no informed no more informed than you are as to the contents or the literally or the validity of the claims. Vonnie thank you. Gina martin adams there. Bloombergs chief equity strategist. Lets get to the first word news. Mark in madrid, police are stopping people coming in an out of some areas that have been partially locked down to try to stand stem europes coronavirus spread. Some 860,000 residents are affected. The measure has been met with protests from people who think that authorities are stigmatizing the poor. Spain is struggling to contain a second wave of covid19. Health Officials Say the u. K. Is on course for 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by midoctober if urgent measures are not taken to prevent the spread of the disease. Isme minister Boris Johnson expected to set out for the restrictions tuesday, although the Health Secretary matt hancock says the government once to avoid a Second National lockdown the government wants to avoid a section a Second National lockdown. Boris johnson is fully recovered from the virus, which put him in intensive care in april. Jerome powell and Steven Mnuchin and will be girl by lawmakers tuesday on the need for more stimulus to short mnuchin will be grilled by lawmakers tuesday on the need for more stimulus. The focus will likely be fiscal policy. Time is running short for congress to agree on another round of spending measures before it shuts down ahead of the november election. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is Bloomberg Markets. I am vonnie quinn. Consumer discretionary stocks down more than 2 today as the likes of mcdonalds and duncan plan hundreds of store closures. Consumer demand is lower. Recentlyeme, though, opened a brandnew Flagship Store in times square and has plans to add an additional 450 stores over the next two years. Joins meersfield, ceo, from charlotte, north carolina. You are open officially a week in times square. Flagship inassive times square when there are no tourists right now . Mike we have been working on this new york shop for over three years, and clearly, as the d, we delayedve our opening but still opened up shops in new york so we could learn to operate around the burros as well as manhattan. Urroughs as well as manhattan. We felt we could operate in we were able to do that last week. Tomorrow will be our first full week. It is encouraging. Going surely revenue is to be anemic they are right now. Again, did you get a great deal on rent, and generally come around the country, what are you doing about rent . Like anything, our landlords or our partners. We talk to them all the time. It is interesting, when you think about it. The opening in north america was one of the highest single day openings. Even though times square is about 10 to 20 of its normal traffic, it shows that if you open an interesting, experiential shop, people will be curious, can you do it safely . It will be a really interesting experience and we did cool things in the shop. Situations around the country and the world are unique in their own right, but we always try to work with landlords as partners. Huge amounthave a of experience in this industry. You took krispy kreme into the fold. You also obviously worked in several other types of consumer facing Companies Like lululemon, yum brands, all the restaurant type brands as well. Where do you see demand growing, mike . Mike krispy kreme is unique because it is a brand story, not just a retail stop. Delivery onut a daily basis. Shops weretail have our retail shops. York, it isor new one of our first shops that will be open 24 hours a day. So we see the opportunity in krispy kreme a little different because we see the approach we can do in an omnichannel world. That is where the opportunities will lie. Can you do the delivery, the experiential, get another channels . Brandstetter able to do that brands that are able to do that have a good shot at growing. Vonnie you can do delivery and so on, but most of their fast casual and fast food outlets are sort of raining themselves in reining themselves in right now. Idea of whatme an employment will look like this year or next year . To do anyave not had furlough or layoffs. We are a global company, right . So we have about 1100 shops outside the u. S. , another 1000 doors were we deliver doughnuts. To give you a snapshot of the u. S. , it is doubledigit revenue growth, just to give you an idea. So the ability to be multichannel and krispy kreme has always had a bit of a multichannel approach in its history. But when you combine that with a digital approach, with delivery, ecommerce, and s of business we have opened up new lines of business we have opened up. Even during the pandemic. We actually open a manufacturing facility in iowa so we could launch a product, which launched at walmart, which is an extended shelf life product. We can do that not just in the u. S. , but scale that around the world, same approach. We have a pretty good growth story. Now, we have to deliver and nothing is guaranteed, but i think we have a pretty good story, and it is an amazing brand. General and of your Merchandise Stores also include train stations, which have not been as populated. I am sure that has made a bit of a difference. What is jab saying. How long will they be involved with krispy kreme . Mike they hold things for the longterm. So we doners with jab, not intend for them to go. Vonnie mike, thank you so much for joining, and it definitely check those outcome of the new times square locations. Mike tattersfield it, it krispy kreme chairman. Doing best, down just about 1 to, but health care stocks, hospital stocks, anything that might be affected by future Supreme Court or congressional decisions lower today. The dow is down 2. 8 . Thel ahead, the latest on coronavirus. We speak with shelley hearne, director of the Johns Hopkins center for Public Health advocacy. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is Bloomberg Markets. I am vonnie quinn. The mostcurrently has coronavirus cases and related deaths of any country. Our next guest says this is due to chronic disease burdens and inequities greater than any other populace, wealthy nation, and responses that have proven to be inadequate. Joining us, dr. Shelley hearne, director of the Johns Hopkins center for Public Health advocacy. What will be the prognosis for the health care system, if you like, beyond the politics of it, but as the situation is now, how are bad are things and what fixes can be made . Shelley i am proud of our health care system. The workers have been extraordinary. By his wetroubled forgot to do the disease prevention and have failed to fortify those very defenses that attract diseases, prevent the , that do outbreaks Laboratory Tests on a rapid basis. We are in bad shape, we didnt build a Public Health system to be on parity with our health care system. Vonnie there is no will for that, though, is there . Challenge ishe most people do not even know a Public Health is. It takes a horrific crisis like this for it to be on the radar screen and on the map, and that is where we are now seeing why it is so important to have those at the ready. Those are the same labs doing the everyday tests that keep us healthy and well in our workforce and well and our workforce in robust shape. We are never going to be ready, but we will also be struggling to stay healthy overall as a population. Vonnie what are the policy prescriptions and who in congress is interested in doing anything about this . Never mind even holding or striking down the aca, which might come before the Supreme Court. Just at the moment, policy prescriptions and who among our representatives care . Dr. Hearne this is the beautiful thing here. This is a perfect opportunity for republicans, democrats, independents to rally together. It is not an issue that has been a part of someone, just a forgotten one. Has been a partisan one, just a forgotten one. It is almost like, for business, you have to have good roads, transportation systems, a workforce that is educated. You also have to have a Public Health system that is keeping people healthy and well and able to work. And that is where we have to go back to some of the basics. This is not about hospitals. It is not about more medical care. It is about wellness care. It is about those disease tracking systems, epidemiologists, contact tracers. You cannot hire them overnight to deal with an emergency. You have to have these troops in place, because that is what is keeping us well in the first place. Vonnie you have to have the infrastructure and personnel, the administrative side of things as well, but just on the aca and insurance for americans, dr. Hearne, do you imagine that situation will change with the next iteration of the Supreme Court . Dr. Hearne i hope. We have such bigger issues on our radar screen. We have got a pandemic. We have a financial crisis. We have such basic issues. We need people, when they are sick, to be going to a doctor and not going to work. If we are going to protect us and be able to move in bounds, we have to not touch our Current Health care system. What we really need to be doing is putting our time and attention as a nation, that political well you were talking about, and just fixing the Public Health part. In just fixing the Public Health part. It is nachos covid. Least healthy the populations of the entire healthy world. We have the best health care the richest nation, but we have probably one of the most neglected Public Health systems, and that is what keeps us from the preventable chronic diseases, that helps us address obesity, some of the pulmonary heart disease. That is why we are having such high numbers of covid, because of our higher underlying conditions. We cant fight on the sidelines. Really focus on where our need is most, which is fixing Public Health. Vonnie it is a good reminder to zoom out and focus on the forest. That is dr. Shelley hearne of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Michael bloomberg, founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, supports that school. Give you my world how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with bloomberg word news. President trump says he has announced up plan to pick a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg by friday or saturday of this week. He told fox news he wants to see a Senate Confirmation vote before novembers election. He says he will likely pick a woman. Justice ginsburg died friday at the age of 87. The United States is about to reach a grim milestone. The number of covid19 related deaths is approaching 200,000. Former fda commissioner scott cop league gottlieb says he expects the u. S. To experience one more cycle of the virus. 961 thousand people have died around the world from the krona virus. Mike pompeo is slapping new sanctions on venezuela. He made the announcements today newe unveiled sanctions on nations or entities that do business with iran. Referred to venezuelan president maduro as the former president of venezuela, a reference to u. S. Recognition of Opposition Leader juan guaido. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda says welcome to bluebird markets. Amanda live from toronto, welcome to Bloomberg Markets. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn. Global stocks in the red, its closing the longest losing strength streak since february. Discount. Ic we discuss art and auction houses with the ceo of christies. Likes of Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg. We discussed the legal legacy of the late justice and the highstakes fight over whether to fill the Court Vacancy before the election, amanda. Certainly seeing a negative tone across stock markets to kick off this week and some of that is uncertainty on the political front, not least, arguably, that Supreme Court nominee broiling markets broiling markets, but you could also put on the list china. Chinau. S. Trade back in focus. And of course, that probe today cut a lot of people by surprise. Bank stocks are certainly surprising swooning. Nasdaq paring some losses. It is off the low of the session. It had been the best performing of the subgroups, although negative. May be still some believers. It is interesting to also note that both gold and oil are on the downside today. Off the lows of the session, but gold has been down sharply and oil has been down as well. A lot for markets to over, including, of course, the general volatility of the lead up to the november election. Sarah, i want to start their. How are you framing what you are seeing . There is this sense of a willingness to get out of these markets, and yet it has also seemed that investors come right back in. Pointed to catalysts that could be driving the selling that we have also seen in september. That fiscal package. We have not gotten it. It looks even more tenuous after the passing of ruth bader ginsburg. The banks. The Kbw Bank Index down 4. 5 today. If we look at the back truck we are dealing with, we have to remember that, heading into september, the s p had a 60 run since the march low. The nasdaq, near 80 run since the march low. Yes, you can point to the tech valuations, but if you look at the classic valuation measure, it just so happens that on september 2, that was a day that we actually took out levels not seen since 27. 8 looking over at reported earnings. The highest since the dotcom bubble in 2000. It is coincidence, but the factor the fact of the matter is that valuations were getting lower and we are seeing this correction. Vonnie is this going to be selfsustaining . We were talking to gina martin adams, who says this is not the end of this. With ppp money running out at the end of the month and nothing else to replace it with, it certainly does not seem like the will there will be good news for the business community. Sarah we were seeing cyclical areas of the market start to outperform tech, underperforming. Happen, it ishat difficult for markets to trade higher. However, today is different. We are actually seeing technophile as much. Get a senseying to of how investors feel about the markets, tech in particular, what you are looking at is outflows in general for the big etf that tracks the nasdaq 100. We saw about 3. 5 billion lead the fund, the largest single day outflow since 2000. It came on the back of what were already heavy outflows. While we did see markets bounce off their bottoms today, it does not look like there are many investors willing to jump in at these levels. What that shows you is that there are plenty trying to get out before what could be more momentum to the downside. Speaking of levels, we definitely saw the s p 500 prices hitting that key resistance point around 3550 and then pulling back off it. Are there numbers you are watching, key levels we could keep an eye out for here . The s p andw both nasdaq close off their moving averages. Both of those levels had lines in the sand, lines of support. Now we are well through those. For the s p, technical analysts seem to be looking at 3200, not only a round number, but a little bit over that official 10 correction. It is also where we saw markets roll in june. From there, people are pointing to that 200 day moving average, which is closer to 3100. If you are looking for lines of support, those are some measures chart watchers are watching. Sarah ponczek, thank you for joining us. With robertlusively kaplan and he warned the feds guidance may be encouraging excessive risktaking. Gives you a signal come if you are a market participant, that you need to take more risk. Building ups about excess risktaking, which can create fragilitys and other excesses in the system, which are hard to see in real time but easier to see in hindsight that could create issues. Vonnie that was part of our exclusive interview with dallas fed president robert kaplan. You can catch more of the interview next hour right here on bloomberg. Coming up, adapting art auctions. Christies ceoth how auctions are finding new ways to reach buyers amid the pandemic. This is bloomberg. Tom this is Bloomberg Markets amanda this is Bloomberg Markets. I am amanda lange and turano, vonnie quinn in new york. We talked about the stayathome stocks. Could the big auction houses be benefiting from a stayathome trend with a certain type of investor . Guillaume cerutti is ceo of christies. Thank you for being with us, sir. I want to start there with, we had this sense that there is a bigger appetite than ever for what we might call an alternative asset, hard assets that are beyond the typical stocks or bonds. Are you seeing higher demands than you would have expected because of the pandemic . Guillaume we have seen higher demand without doubt. On the demand side, the appetite from existing collectors and new collectors has been very strong over the last month, especially from a have moved most live auction to online auction. We have seen an influx of new clients coming in on this online platforms. Vonnie just looking now, and apparently right now it is a je wels online auction, then it is multiples, and you have one in september. What is the general pandemic discount these days . Is it hard to say . Guillaume there is no discount. This period has been very good for those trying to sell. Demand has been extremely strong from all over the world, and there is no discount in buying or selling online. We tend to reach the same prices, even sometimes beyond, because we are able to reach out to a broader audience. So no discounts and going in buying things going online, buying things online. Mention the you supply side the constrained piece of the business, what are you doing for sellers to part with their material . Guillaume we have to convince our clients that it is the moment to sell. It is about confidence in the market. We are able to demonstrate that the rates are very strong. That is why we are experiencing a strong season this fall. Market this to the fall. The second thing we are doing is that we are offering more and more possibilities. Live auctionut only. I explained it is live auction and private sales. Private sales have been the theect compromise for sellers while reaching out to many collectors in the world. Vonnie i was just going to go there because i imagine if the stock market stalled and we saw Something Like we did in march again, for example, there will be a lot of jitters out there and a lot of wealthy peoples wealth is tied up in the stock market and tied to the stock market. Are more people bypassing the auction process and making may be lowball bids directly to sellers . Guillaume yes, but they tend to go through through intermediaries like us. Whatever you choose, online or private sale, if you want to approach as many potential buyers as you can. In this respect, we are well placed. We are a global business. We are seeing a tremendous amount of newco lectures of new collectors, especially from and iover the last year, think private sales have more than doubled over the last month. I think we are able to commit to our clients that, whatever they choose, live auction, online, or private sale, might expect to see the same revenue you had precovid 19 . Guillaume that is a difficult question. The past month has been challenging. We expect come in terms of revenue we expect to, in terms of revenue, to fall about 30 compared to last year. Back to normal should be beginning or mid next year. That is what we planned, but we have course are preparing for all scenarios. Of course are preparing for all scenarios. The positive signal we have is that the sales this fall will be stronger than this spring and the summer. We are seeing a positive trend. We extend this trend by the fact that clients are more confident than they were a few months ago. The market is strong, especially the market for masterpieces is extremely resilient. We are expecting progressing to a return to normal over the next year. Vonnie where is demand most greatly increased . Where are those who can and do want to buy trying to buy . Does it masterpieces, modern, asian . Is it masterpieces, modern, asian . Alix guillaume a masterpiece is a this part of the market is very resilient and has been doing very well, both privately or at auction. In the same way, the low end of the market, in terms of value, has found, through the online sales, the perfect channel. Thatbeen strong has been a strong and resilient part of our business. Closing is in between. We are trying to commit our. Lients to do an auction is a business auction is a business where you try to reach the highest price. Amanda great to have your insight on this market. That is guillaume cerutti, ceo of christies. Oning up, we will reflect the life and legacy of Supreme Court justice ruth ginsburg. This is bloomberg. Amanda this is Bloomberg Markets. I am amanda lang and toronto with vonnie quinn in new york. A 7. 5 billion publish of publisher doom. Tought fu with us on a day in the markets. Any other day, microsoft acquisition of zinnia media would be big news. Dune, microsoft purchasing elders goals Elder Scrolls and fallout. Microsoft gets about 13 of its revenue from gaming, but has been investing heavily in it. It shelled out 2 billion to buy the maker of minecraft. It has bought seven studios in two years. A pretty rough day overall. Microsoft intech in tech faring better than the rest of the market. My producer calls it a selloff without discretion. Global banks lower on reports of illegal moneylaundering for almost a 20 year period. Airlines down following travel stocks lower in europe. A rough three weeks for the stock market overall, with the nasdaq 100 moving 10 of its value losing 10 of its value in september. You have seen the top tech names shedding a ton of market value, 1. 1 trillion dollars combined from their peak, with apple leading the way down. Part of this is because of a lack of positive catalysts before the earnings season, but tesla is defined the drop. Event,ws battery day investors want to see how the company shapes up in the final days of the third. Elon musk is urging the troops to rally, saying they have a shot at a record third quarter. He urged them to sell as many cars as possible. Classic elon musk, vonnie. Former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg lying in repose at the Supreme Court wednesday, thursday, and then at the Capital Building friday. Friday. Ol building we are joined by the president of the Justice Ginsburg was truly a giant in American History and atrial blues are. And a trail blazer. There is no question that this loss is a huge hole for this country. It also points out how fragile all of our rights are. And that is true for gender equality, but true for justice generally in this country. Amanda i want to dig a little further on that, because there is a lot of fear at at the moment about the politicization of the courts. We know u. S. Justices are known to have a political kind of ideology. That is a fact that is not true in all countries. Do they stay that political, or is there some evidence that once they are on the court they can rely on their better instincts to actually follow the law and constitution . Fragile time for the core and its history. For those of us who have been practicing for a a while, we see this as an extraordinarily Important Institution that is actually nonpartisan. That is why i am actually so deeply worried that we are talking about, during an election, having an effort to s seat. Tice ginsburg that is the talk you had it the white house, the talk from senator mcconnell. That has a risk of tainting the Supreme Court, politicizing the Supreme Court. What we have seen, however, is that the nominees from President Trump have been pretty true to their word. He made it clear that any Supreme Court justice would work to overturn roe v. Wade, would work to undermine health care. That is what we have seen from the judges and justices he has appointed and i think he will work to try to fulfill that promise. Right now, the most important thing is being guided by what was actually Justice Ginsburgs last, most fervent wish, which is that there be no nominee. Center done the Due Diligence on the female candidates President Trump has put forward . He has hinted strongly that it will be a female nomination. What did these women mean to the National Womens law center . They are all experienced and will make up part of just one executive. He isima what matters and important for Justice Ginsburgs legacy is really not only be legitimacy of the court but those foundational protections for gender equality. The idea that the people on his list are against reproductive freedom, have records that have gone against equality at work and in schools. That person would be a replacement for Justice Ginsburg, that would be difficult for women in this country to take. What is on the line right now really are our core rights, whether that be health care or addressing the attacks from antiabortion extremists. There is a lot at stake for women right now. The most important thing, i think, is that we actually do the thing we need to do to protect the legitimacy fatima scott graves, the National Womens law center, thank you. Ruth bader ginsburg, liberal culture icon, 87 years old. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. The centers for Disease Control and prevention have removed guidance from the website saying the coronavirus could spread through the air in small particles at distances of more than six feet. On friday, the cdc said in addition to spreading between people in close contact, the virus could spread through particles that can linger in the air and travel more than six feet in settings such as restaurants, fitness classes, and choir practices. The agency said it posted the draft version in error and is uploading recommendations about airborne transmission. Itsunited nations marks 75th anniversary today with the appeal from the secretarygeneral to preserve the longest period in modern history without a military confrontation between the worlds most powerful nations. But the secretarygeneral stressed there are concerns that can and must be addressed. Gender inequality remains the greatest single challenge to human rights around the world. Looms. Calamity
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