Fed kicking off its meeting today. For more on what investors are watching, sarah hunt is here from alpine woods capital. What could the fed due tomorrow that would most upset the markets . Give i think they did not a lot of detail about how they were going to make sure when it was time for them to change their inflation standpoint, when was too much over. If they narrow the window and say we are looking for a tiny bit of on the inflation side. I think they are expecting inflation to run hotter if they get there for a longer time. And if they do something to narrow that window, that would make people more nervous. Newsbut in terms of the flow, have we already had it . Central banks have been dominant this year. It seems to me as if politics is beginning to take over as the key narrative, in london with brexit, and weve got all kinds of trouble in the mediterranean, we have got tension with china, and of course we have the u. S. Election coming up. So does this narrative now takeover from the Central Bank Narrative in terms of the Way Investors will look at their portfolios . Sarah i think it does, because that Central Banks have done everything they can. Asetary policy is not targeted as fiscal policy can be, so there have been discussions on getting stimulus back after the unemployment extra bonuses went away. That becomes a much bigger part of what is happening in the shortterm market, than the Central Banks. They can only be negative if they started to look like they were pulling back on support and i do not see that happening. On the side of fiscal policy, does the market expect we will get more . Would it be upsetting to asset prices if we do not get another package before the election, or does it only hit the real economy . Sarah i think the enthusiasm earlier was the talk that you thinkget something, so i that the market is expecting that somehow washington will get a deal done before the election. If you do not see that happening, i think we will see more volatility, because part of the reason the market has acted so well is because you have seen the positives that came out of the fiscal stimulus. And without off the table, and some of the Larger Companies talking about bigger layoffs now after not going down that road for the last few months, i think you start to get more an Economic Situation where they will need to see some sort of deal. Guy where does the virus fit in to all of this . Sarah the biggest problem is it is so difficult for us to say, what from our history books or anything that has gone on in the last couple decades, nobody has seen the Global Economy shut down to the extent it has. In a predictive situation at that we are trying to get into, it is hard to figure out what will happen with unemployment. Have we gone through enough people being laid off . Will we get to the point where we see bigger layoffs because the revenues are not there and people are holding on to hope that the revenues will recover . We do not know. The biggest problem is the discounting mechanism, the market is supposed to know what will happen and we cannot properly discount what is going on yet. Kailey there is uncertainty. Now i want to look at china. A breaking headlines, wto has ruled u. S. Tariffs on china violate trade rules. We will bring you more information on that as we get it, but that brings me to a broader question of not just the trade war, but the tech war with china that is front and center right now with investors. Does that narrative change should we get a change of administration . Sarah i think there would be a change. I would think that even though there has been talk from the joe biden side about being tough on china, i think it is unlikely to be as contentious as it has been. On the other hand, i think that there are companies around the country looking and is saying, this may be a bigger Security Threat than we are willing to deal with, so maybe this does not change to a huge extent if we go forward with a Different Administration. I am not sure how it will play out. I think there are still things that are difficult to parse on both sides, because both countries want things eventually, we will still be partners, there is still a lot that goes back and forth. It might be a little quieter if we change administrations. Guy what is the narrative going into the election . I remember the night that President Trump was elected. And there was a selloff, then the belief that the president actually it came through the speech he gave was going to to the country and equity markets took off. The market in some ways is very bad at handicapping, before hand, ultimately what administrations are likely to do. How do i position for the selection . What would your advice be in terms of where i want to be . How do the taxes affect the story . Is that good for u. S. Debt . I am wondering how this set up is in your mind. Sarah i think it is such a challenging question because when you look at what is going on now, one of the biggest problems is all taxes cities collect are not happening now, because there is a lot in the air. And as we discussed is, one could surmise that if you get a bite and presidency, the odds of taxes are going higher, especially with Larger Companies. How does that affect the stock market immediately and whether people worry, i think the Health Care Sector probably is one of the bigger sectors where a Different Administration might make a difference. It is tough to parse out, and i think the market does not do a good job. Biginitial down, then the up movement had a lot to do with regulatory changes. Will that unwind, or are we back to the u. S. Is the best market to be in and it does not matter what is going on on the political side . It is a tough thing to game out ahead of time and we obviously spent time talking about it, because it matters to all portfolios. I do not think it is so easy to predict. Guy yeah. It is nice to talk about the. Ough. Good to speculate on. Stick around, we have more to talk about. We need to talk about the tech sector. Sarah hunt is staying with us. Tech is on top today. We will dig into that story, next. This is bloomberg. Kailey from new york, on kailey leinz, along with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Tech is continuing into rebound, but there are signs investors are getting more timid. Scarlett has the details. Waslett the question is, what happened with tech stocks last week just a heads up. A hiccup. A couple days does not make a trend. The nasdaq 100 is now set for its best to day advance since april 30. Yet, at the same time, rotation trade is also gaining momentum. Long caps where the clear winners across equities yesterday because even as the nasdaq outperformed the s p 500, the russell 2000 outperform the nasdaq. Isso far in september, value beating growth, and that could end 11 months of growth dominance. The last time value beat growth was in september of 2019. The latest bank of America Survey backs of this idea up, showing the start of a rotation into cyclicals. Value stocks seen as a better position than growth, small preferable to large, and at the bottom is investor positioning and tech faltering. The worst is the eurozone losing favor. Techame survey showed u. S. Has become an even more crowded trade. It does not mean that the love affair with technology is about to end, it is more and more people cannot give it up, because if you want to stay even with the market, you cannot abandon tech. I go back to what eric stein was telling jonathan ferro, you have to think of big tech as its own asset class. Forget growth versus value, it is momentum versus reversion, and right now momentum is clearly with growth. Guy scarlet fu, thank you. Now we are talking more about tech with sarah hunt, Portfolio Manager at [indiscernible]. Portfolio manager at alpine woods capital. Talk about tech as a defensive plate and when you start to switch into the cyclicals. Sarah i think this goes back to our conversation, which is how is covid19 changing the world . To the extent that we do not have a sort of normal daytoday life right now, i think it is hard to say that the tech story will be over into cyclicals will win. I think it is more a question of moving out of one into another, instead of saying, i need to look at other sectors. Thosehe cyclical sector, stocks have moved dramatically already on the back of what people were looking at in the recovery, and if things slow down again, which in they might come even on the tech side, when you were thinking about getting new computer equipment and everything to work from home, do we now get into a pause with that spending because people are looking at the fact that revenues are not coming back and i need to watch my expenses. I am concerned that the Revenue Growth that everybody anticipated in a linear fashion may have bumps in the road. It is a very crowded trade, but still one of the few places where you can see consistent growth Going Forward. Kailey is it still expensive, even with a selloff last week . 37. 4 on the nasdaq composite, are these two lofty in terms of valuation to make a case of buy or add to your portfolio . Sarah a year ago, i wouldve said they looked expensive. I think with the Interest Rates around zero, the framework for what expensive used to be, in the business room, it looks very expensive to most of us now, but in the end we will be in a low Interest Rate environment for a long time, so people will pay for growth. You cannot get income out of the fixed income right now, so you are looking for Capital Appreciation on the equity side, so you are looking for those places where you will see that. What people are willing to pay for is consistent topline growth. And that is outside of the tech sector. Guy what can i read into the tech story from what is happening with the tiktok transaction . It is a very messy piece of m a. It could just be a licensing deal. But what it tells me is the relationship between china tech and u. S. Tech will become more fraught and likely to splinter. Do you want to own tech in that kind of environment . Are the political risks priced correctly . Sarah i would say a lot of the risks are not priced correctly in this space. I do not think i can uncover that challenge. Even if you had more decoupling technologyau. S. Side, it does not mean you will not grow tech. The biggest problem with tiktok is about the data and who owns the data and how much is being moved. Honestly, if people asked you for the data that you take off the phone, most people would say no. In the absence of privacy issues when it comes to chinese tech, this is part of the reason you are having a discussion about tiktok, and i do not understand it either because it does not sound like a sale. It sounds like a Data Protection situation and i am not sure how it will work out. I know there has been discussion about really good tory issues with tech, it makes see where, but on the other hand the growth is there and it is hard to see how you could even decouple these from one another, even if you start to hear more regulatory talk about they are too big, too big in the scheme of things. Kailey kailey you keep mentioning that is where the growth is and the conversation of the u. S. To the rest of the world is based on tech, because the tech exposure here is something you cannot get in europe, even if the virus recovery there is looking more stable than the u. S. What you think about the Value Proposition versus Everything Else in the world right now . Sarah the u. S. Tends to have higher valuations and then the european market. Sometimes, some of the japanese and other markets get valuations changed a little bit. Structure iny europe is different from the u. S. , and the Biggest Tech Companies in the u. S. , not only are they growing faster, but the bigger they get, the more index dominant they become. Which we also have seen a big move to passive investing and there is a virtual up cycle, where more money is put into the market and it goes to the bigger cap stocks because they are dominating their industries. So, there are outside companies. You have semi conductors, you have stocks outside of the u. S. That make equipment for this space and more in this space, so the biggest brand name protect usually is u. S. Companies that are global in scale. Amazon, google, these are global companies. Kailey that is a fair point. We have to leave it there. Coming up, more on tech. We will look at apple, its first major Product Launch of the year. Or at least the event. This is bloomberg. Time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. Cuts, part ofcost what the package food giant is a transformation plan. They are focusing on costcutting at kraft. The company was formed in a 2015 merger orchestrated by warren budget and Warren Buffett and 3g. Giving investors a rare opportunity to disrupt amazon. The Cloud Computing companys ipo is set for tomorrow and is seen as a Market Leader in a key product area dominated by amazon. The top provider of public Cloud Storage and services. The ipo may generate a market value at 30 billion. Its first major Product Launch of the year, revealing a new apple watch and an update to the ipad air. The apple watch has become one of their bestselling devices. And it is the biggest contributor to their wearables and accessories division. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy thank you. Lets get more on that launch event. A will bring in ramon llamas, atearch director and Analyst International data core. The lack of the news on the iphone today really just highlights how apple has changed. It used to rely so much on iphones in terms of revenue generation, but as we have heard, the other categories are coming up quickly and in some ways and highlights just how less reliant apple is. Are investors realizing the shift underway, is that why we have seen the repricing of apple that we have seen from the last couple months . Ramon that is exactly the point, because if you take a look at the past two or three years of their quarterly earnings, the iphone as a category, for revenue, has been the big getter, like 50 of their total revenues. But that has not moved the needle meaningfully. Have wearables, it has been showing doubledigit growth year after year. And same thing with services, too. They are practically printing money. You put it altogether, this is a much more diversified company. Kailey we are not getting news on the iphone today, but we are expecting to at some point this fall, does the highly anticipated 5g phone change in that equation . Ramon when it does come out, it will bring 5g much more to the masses. Even if you are like the folks on main street usa, completely familiar with 5g not completely familiar with 5g, you will want to because this is a relationship you will want for the next couple years, and the direction that you want to go with. You will want to have it. Lets see what happens with the new device. And if you get an iphone with 5g, what experience will they roll out on their own devices. Guy the event today is titled time flies. Lets talk about time and at the release of the iphone. It is coming later. We can debate why it is coming later, but it is coming later. In terms of impact on topline, what will the delay do . And the fact that will be released closer to christmas, the holiday sales season, will that mean that ultimately some demand for the phone does not take place. People buy into christmas and the holidays. If you take a few weeks out, do we get a slower sales number ultimately . Ramon i do not think so. Yes, things will be delayed. But takei look at the bigger picture. When the iphone came out in september, it used to be in a week or two weeks at the most, it would have availability. So it is not that much of a change around on that front. Meanwhile, looking at the fourth quarter, we are expecting this announcement to take place in october and my expectation is demand will still be there. It will shift to the november or december quarters, and or atths, rather, and you look last year because people were waiting for this 5g, this is the time to make their move. Is this going to be an inhibitor to topline growth, no, i think it will shift to leader in the quarter. Kailey lets talk about the company more broadly. On the spectrum of Hardware Company versus services company, is it in the middle or is it leaning in the hardware direction . Ramon it is still very much in that hardware area. Again, if you look at apple, the iphone making up about 60 of revenue, then the other lines ite ipad and even wearables, is still very much a Hardware Company. If you look at the services it has grown, it was not long ago where services did not even make up 10 of total revenue, now we are closing in on about 15 17 . And it didnt used to grow. It is incredible because every time you turn around and there is another Apple Service that is coming out. Last year, it came out with the apple credit card. And millions jumped on board. We have seen it with apple music, cloud and Everything Else. One thing i am curious to see is if there will be another service announced, is it something that millions will jump on again it is likely. Kailey we will have to wait and see. Thank you so much, ramon llamas. A day where big tech is leading. This is bloomberg. Look here, its your very own allinone Entertainment Experience xfinity x1. Its the easiest way to watch live tv and all your favorite streaming apps. Plus, x1 also includes peacock premium at no extra cost. This baby is the total package. It streams exclusive originals, the full peacock movie library, complete collections of iconic tv shows, and more. Yup, the best really did get better. Magnificent. Xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No Strings Attached. Kailey from new york, im kailey leinz, along with guy in london. This is bloomberg markets. Week willeeting this keep us guessing on their agenda. Lets look at how the feds Corporate Bond buying has affected the market, mina nguyen is with us. What are you and your client expecting to hear tomorrow clients expecting to hear tomorrow . Mina thank you for having me. The graveyard is filled with traders who try to speculate the fed, so i will not try to do that too much, but on the heels of the announcement last week, i think we will watch to see if Jerome Powell reinforces that. I think this will always be a communication exercise and whether or not they share information about curtailing longterm damage. You have been involved in Corporate Bond buying. The Corporate Bond issuance has been significant, but when you look at the markets, what are investors looking at in terms of potential pickups hiccups . What are the risks . Mina i think we look at march and some of the first signs of market stress was how things widen. We were surprised to see the , 05term rated bonds years is where the price action was, and that was surprising and why the fed had to react. So we are watching the spreads, any time are extremely wide and for sustained periods of that would be of concern. They think the fed will ease up on buying, even though they have only hit a fraction of their capacity . Is there an expectation to keep buying at a fast rate . Mina i think they have shown persistence and agility, so it is unclear whether they will stop or continue buying. The markets seem stable, so they have definitely slowed it down. Billion,to 750 depending on how you cockily the leverage they can apply to it, but they have only spent about 12 billion, so they are keeping their powder dry going into the fall with all the uncertainty and volatility. That gives them room to continue to buy. Hasof now, the buying rate slowed significantly. Guy a recent survey shows that a third of the firms surveys risk becoming insolvent. Do you think that credit spreads are reflecting the right level of risk right now . Mina that is hard to say. In terms of, it depends where on the curve you are looking. Ig is reflective. I think that are on the cusp of hyg, that people are looking at is more risky. As of now, things seem somewhat like they are tightening up, but certainly in the highyield market people are baking in more risk and concerns. Guy do you think the spreads have the potential to tighten further . You talked about ongoing fed support, do you think we could see even tighter spreads, if that support continues . The market has been pushed a long way, but it seems like people are pushing further in order to generate return on the yield they are getting. Mina if you take a look at lqd, the spreads are basically at precovid levels, so if you think the proxy is precovid levels, it is promising that we are already in that area. But people are looking, we have almost negative Interest Rates and people are looking for ways to find better investment and yields, so i expect more trading and activity. And so, whether that, you know, materializes into certain types of corporate debt yield is unclear to me, but looking at things precovid levels, it is happening. Kailey there is a story about the main Street Lending program today and how there has been no because a few banks want to provide the loans. Can we talk about the success the fed has had with Corporate America and when it comes to main street . Mina i guess that we are watching more the Credit Facility that we are involved with, but i am familiar with the main street money program. Extremelyat that is important, because its the underbelly of the economy. You think about the most jobs, the economic stress, would show up in that sector, so i think that the fed needs to focus on that. The good news is their agility, when they launch these programs, they wanted them to be effective, so i would expect to see more activity in that area. I have no special information from being involved, but from my seat, i would say that people are focused. And when you grow these programs, the integrity of the program and making sure they are effective, and they reach the greatest number of people is extremely important. The role of the fed is to ensure that many measures of Economic Indicators go up. But destabilization will hurt those levers. And storing market confidence is a big challenge and i do not think they want to see a pandemic turn into a financial crisis. So i think we will see more activity there. Speaking of a financial crisis, we have seen dealer inventories get smaller, therefore it has made room for folks like jane street to enter the market. How is the market changing and is it a problem that the banks step back so much . Mina i would say that the banks are not really stepping back. If you thing about the entire fixed income market, is about 40 trillion, 10 trillion in corporate debt, so there is a lot of room. Longevity matters and the banks role is significant and important. I think you are seeing the evolution of the fixed income market, but was a manual market is becoming driven by a couple key trends, electronic vacation, indexation and greater adoption of uts. These are impacting how and where people source liquidity, and as a result you see players like us being part of the evolution now. Kailey this year, we have seen people like jane street really be able to benefit from the enhanced volatility. How much has jane street been able to capitalize on these markets . What has it meant for the bottom line . Mina i do not feel like we will capitalize. I feel like these are the times when we are expected to step up. And we do that by committing our own capital and carrying risk for days or weeks, whatever it takes to help execute trading goals. So you are pricing in risk and carrying risk. That impacts our trading and our volumes. So, volume has certainly been elevated. And i think that is a good thing for the markets. It means we are active and we are there and people can get the liquidity that they need. Guy fantastic that you took the time to join us. We really appreciate it. Please come back very soon. Street. Yen of jane and what is coming up . Covid on campuses. One school is seeing enrollment drop by 20 in the last year because of the virus. We will discuss these issues with the biggest manager of Student Housing in the united states, bill bayless will be joining us. This is bloomberg. Coming up today, we will hear from the viacom ceo. At that will be at 00 p. M. In new york. This is bloomberg. Now first word news. President trump will preside over the signing of historic diplomatic deals between israel and arab states. The leaders of the uae and bahrain will sign the agreement. It will allow israel to reduce dependence on money from china. Bloomberg spoke to the u. S. Ambassador to israel. It is better capital, safer capital. It is more reliable and it will not come with as many Strings Attached or as many risks. Its a great opportunity for israel to maintain the sources of capital it needs without putting its security at risk. Areka bahrain and the uae only the third and fourth arab nations to recognize israel. Bill gates used to think of the as the premier health authority, not anymore. He discussed politicizing covid19 treatments in an interview with erik schatzker. Any suggestion that a politician helped create the vaccine, or it is faster because of a politician, is a dangerous thing. We saw with the completely bundled plasma statements that when you start pressuring people to say optimistic things, they go off the rails. So the fda lost credibility there. Ritika we will have more of that interview on bloomberg tv. An early indication of the impact of covid19 on higher education. Enrollment at George Washington is down 17 from last year. The school is located in washington, d. C. And is one of the nations most expensive. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. m ritika gupta this is bloomberg. Kailey thank you. For more on the pandemics impact on businesses depend on universities, we have with us now bill bayless, the largest manager of housing apartments in the u. S. It is a crazy time for you, im sure. I was talking about my college experience. I shared a bathroom with 24 girls on my floor. How do you facilitate social distancing and Safety Measures in that kind of environment . Bill this is where what we and createdmpanies have products that are better adapted to managing a pandemic. When you look at our portfolio, 90 of our products are apartment style products that and above,mores Residential Multifamily apartments with two to four per household with their own private bathroom, where they can quarantine. So modern Student Housing has helped bring students back to these College Towns. On campus, the universities still have about 38 or 39 of their oncampus products that are the older, traditional Residence Halls that you described. We think coming coming we think coming out of covid19, one of the initiatives is helping universities take those assets out of service and further modernize. Thingsll, one of the that has transformed the sector has been parental guarantees that are attached to the lease agreements that students assign. Is sign. Is that turning out to be in important factor right now . I am curious as to the delinquencies, what they look like, how many of the guarantees are being used . Pension funds have put a lot of money to work in this sector and this could be pivotal in terms of guaranteeing cash flow. Bill we have seen positive responses throughout the pandemic in terms of the ability for students and parents to continue to pay rent. In the spring and summer terms, we connected over 90 of our rent. We did have a Resident Hardship Program for both students and parents, where if they were negatively impacted by covid, we actually assisted them and gave directly close to 23 million in finance relief to students, parents in working with their university partners. It was good to be a compassionate Business Owner and do the right thing, but also many people were also able to continue to honor their rental obligations. Kailey i am thinking of the instances across the country where we have seen students had to leave or go home because of outbreaks. What are you doing in situations like that, where there are vacancies . Do they have to pay the duration of their lease . Bill they actually are not going home. You look at the state of north carolina, we actually had an uptick in our private offcampus properties. When the university announced they were going online. If the students do not want to leave the College Towns or academic environment. In some cases, they do not want to be in the oncampus product with the community baths, but rather than going home, they are moving into the modern apartment style houses that are better suited for that. Dr. Fauci did get on tv and say, the worst thing that universities can do is send students home. Theer, that demographic, 1822yearold has shown to be low risk to covid complications and of them being together in College Towns have enabled them to be in a safe environment, whether the university is online or in person. As the universities have toggled between the curriculum methodology, we have not seen it change the students desire and a sentiment to stay in the College Towns and continue online. Guy are there any longterm effects of what is happening here . Bill the one thing that we have with and are pleased with the numbers, is we have not seen a they decrease in enrollment a big decrease in enrollment, but rather the large Public Institutions at that we serve, for the most part, are reporting steady enrollment, in some cases even going up. The only trend we have seen, where we saw strong demand, we are currently 90. 3 for this academic year, versus in a normal year it would be 97 , so 7 diminishment. What we saw in that was a sophomores and upperclassmen, almost all of them came back. Only about 5 did not physically relocate. But they still enrolled. With the first year students, who are graduating from high school among covid, leaving home for the first time to start their college career, there we saw more apprehension. And the first year products, which only make up about 10 of our design beds, they are at 80 occupancy. So the student said, until i get into the classroom i may delay coming to the university physically, but over all they want to be back in their College Towns, regardless of online or in person. And we have seen mom and dad wanted those students to be back in those College Towns. Kailey if occupancy is lower, will that pressure your cash flow and by extension your dividends . Bill we are in a good in a good or we were situation going into the pandemic. We had about 850 Million Dollars in liquidity on the balance sheets, so we were in a good cash position. So the 7 diminishment is not something that puts pressure on our cash flows. Obviously, dividend policy is something we look at with our board of directors on an ongoing basis, but we feel confident in terms of where we are moving into this academic year, only being down what we would not consider material impacts, when you look at office and hospitality and in terms of usage there. We think Student Housing has always been known for its resiliency of cash flows in a macroenvironment. And we think we have shown throughout the pandemic, while effects, cashthe flows continue to stay in place. Guy how much potential for new builds is there Going Forward . Slowed down as a result of covid . Is there pent up demand that will come back into the market . I am curious what the supplyside looks like. Bill transactions have slowed down, but i do not think Investor Sentiment and demand have in terms of looking longterm. When you look at the industry from a supply perspective, the universities own 22 beds as percent of enrollment in most markets nationally. The average age of the housing is 52 years old. And much of that is the community baths. So, modernization of that needs to continue. When you look at private Student Housing, like we, great start and other companies do, all the products we have built from 1995 through today represent about another 23 of supply as part of enrollment. We still think as an industry, and the commercialization of modernization of Student Housing, we are still early in the game. May be middle of the fourth inning. And we still have decades of modernization left. We think the longterm prospect for supply and demand is in our favor. Also, because of the difficulty in developing in College Towns, going through the entitlement processes, we have seen developments slow down over the last couple years, not because of the lack of people wanting in the space, but the natural barriers to entry in the space. The fundamentals we have demonstrated over 15 years, where we have never had a single year where we have not had growth in rental revenue. We think that will return postcovid and we will continue to be one of the more attractive investments when macroeconomics may be in a decline or in a recession. Guy we will leave it there. Bill, we appreciate your time. Thank you for joining us. , ceo of american campus communities. Down aftermorgan is their cfo says that their net enters outcome outlook is down. In terms of investment, banking revenues, up Single Digits in the third quarter, trading revenue up 20 from last year. We will continue to monitor those headlines. This is bloomberg. Guy its time for futures in focus. Vince is with us. He is the voice of the bloomberg audio. The fed tomorrow. Think of england later in the week as well. I see the dollar gaining traction over the last hour. What is positioning like going into the fed meeting . Vince the positioning for the dollar is well short, particularly against the euro. Hedge funds probably at record long euro positions going into the fed meeting. And what you are seeing today is probably trimming those positions, but the market is still short. The bets are against the dollar. The bet is the fed will continue with its dovish calls, especially in light of the lack of fiscal stimulus. I think that will be the interesting take, whether the fed or the chair makes specific statements to the stimulus. And some sources i have talked to think that he will. And if he does, without the stimulus the markets will take that as a dovish lean and probably boost of the dollar up a little bit more. Kailey since we are looking at that, the narrative is lower for longer, so when will we get a fed hike . Vince the markets are looking at three years from now. I think there is a little bit of optimism there, but at the end andhe day, no inflation, still seeing meager growth in 2021, there is really no push from the fed to raise rates. The goals are inflation, price stability and employment. So, with price stability it leaves them free to let the rate stay low for as long as they like. There is nothing to move them into that space, unless you talk about raising rates in case we need deliver them again later. Which i think is crazy. Kailey thank you so much, vincent. Coming up, more on the markets on a day when equities are higher here and across the atlantic. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london i am gary johnson guy johnson. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. As chinastocks gaining posts surprising positive Economic Data pointing to an accelerated recovery from covid. Internal markets bill passes his first test in parliament. Investors think its a negotiating tactic. How they are pricing in the risk of a no deal brexit. Investor confidence picking up in germany, but what does the future hold for berlins increasingly acrimonious relationship with washington . We will speak to a former u. S. Ambassador to germany. Very strong data out of china a little bit earlier on. That had an effect on the currency as we continue to see the chinese currencyus