Still at home, eating out less, working less then before covid19. The economic fallout is putting pressure on lawmakers to get a new stimulus deal done, but so far no agreement has come from d. C. Europe still feeling the pain. Now it is a new hotspot for coronavirus cases, surpassing the u. S. Six months into the pandemic the recovery feels so far off. On an objective level standpoint, we are a long wait from the employment way from the employment levels we were at precrisis. The pace of job growth in particular, more evidence that is slowing down. This is every week of unemployment claims since the crisis began. If you look at the last five aeks, we stopped improving on sequential basis. These are high numbers. Over 800,000 per week, well higher than the precrisis level. We want to see them come down. Evidence that people are suddenly going back to work. Not showing up by this measure. This feeds into the general idea of consumer sentiment. That Bloomberg Consumer comfort index coming out this morning. We saw improvement. About 13 points above the endemic low pandemic low. Here is the issue on this chart. There are a lot of metrics in this data today that showed a breakdown by income levels, by gender. This one by race. Level, see the comfort the general sentiment level of consumers. Much higher not only for whites, but for males and people above 50,000 a year in income. The inequality comes ever more marked, ever more painful to see. It is something we are seeing in europe. Amazing statistics in terms of who has been hurt the most in age. Youth unemployment is high in europe, particularly italy, greece. Dailyn europe, now more covid19 infections than the u. S. The europe plus some other countries is larger in population than the u. S. , but still we are seeing 252 deaths on wednesday by christinell lagarde today saying we cant get a grip on the recovery in terms of the economy until we get a grip on the virus. To talk more about the connection between the virus and ae economy, lets bring in founder and ceo. Thanks for joining us. It has been tricky over the last several months to suss out a relationship between the fluctuations in the virus and the economy. We had this big sudden stop in the economy in the first wave. But it is more ambiguous when you look in europe and the u. S. Right now, is there some clear link between the rate of change or speed of the recovery of the economy . Initially when we had the first wave, we had a huge spike in cases, in deaths. That was followed by lockdown and a dramatic economic impact. As we second wave, or even look into the third wave in some countries, that relationship is getting more complex. The relationship between the cases and policy response has changed. Dramaticearned maybe a fullblown lockdown is not needed. Spikes. Ugh we have case we went through europe today. You can almost not see the impact of case spikes in europe. That is a huge difference compared to the first wave. Decision,s of policy trump saying in his latest press conference we will not see an u. S. Economic shutdown like we did previously where is in the u. K. We are seeing increases of social distancing. There are mandatory face masks. There are hotspots of decisionmaking in europe and the u. S. How hard is it when you dont have a focused response ensuring we dont get to the other side of this virus . Jens one of the things we have learned is there are a couple things you can do that has a hug e impact on the transmission of the virus. If you avoid super spreading events, that is important. If you wear a mask, that doesnt hurt the activity in the economy much. Those initiatives are being put in place. That is why the alternative data is not showing a big turn in the euro zone. The question is, what is happening with fatalities . There is a different attitude toward the virus now where relaxed is not may be the word, but they are not changing behaviors as dramatically as they were in march or april. Increase, will that change . We are focused on forecasting the they tell ladies in europe the attala tease in europe the fatalities in europe. Data do you think the politicians themselves and folks in charge are more focused on the fatality data or new infection rates . Jens you definitely want to look at the data in a holistic way. If you only look at the cases and think that is the true picture over time, you will miss the demographics of the outbreak is different. Many jurisdictions have reported the median age is going down dramatically. That is part of the reason why the fatality rate is down. Thhink the policymakers know e lockdowns implemented in the first wave were not sustainable. The damage from that lockdown was so severe that any second round lockdown will have to be different in nature. Joe lets talk about the u. S. Context. If you look at the unemployment rate, it has fallen quite a bit faster than anyone could forecast a few months ago. On the other hand, you could look at claims numbers. Is,all, or looks like it having flatlined the last five weeks. In various points that this crisis, people are like the recovery is stalling, but it is not clear. Even if we are not retrenching like we did earlier in the in march or april, are we running into some sort of ceiling or risk of stalled growth just because levels of the virus are relatively high . Jens it is like you had a recovery in may that had two engines. The one engine was you had reopening. Activity was allowed to take place in more places. But the second engine was the fiscal stimulus. In relation to the reopening, in the u. S. I think we can have a reasonable degree of confidence that a month or two out, the reopening would continue to progress. Aroundger question is the second engine around fiscal stimulus. That looks a lot more uncertain. Can this recovery be sustained . That is a problem. Alix that is the question being debated in europe as well. We have seen germany extent fiscal support for the unemployed out to 2021. You see the u. K. Chancellor having to push back, extending their ongoing furloughing of the Employee Base past october. What do you see for the u. K. At the moment . They seem to be making their own holes for themselves. Jens it is a question of whether we move into a domain where people dont care about deficits at all. We have already seen a Seismic Shift this year where people are willing to embrace deficits of levels viewed as unthinkable before. The u. K. Is a place where they had very large fiscal deficits, but nevertheless they are not willing to go to any level. There are talks about tax hikes. That is feeding into the perceptions about where the economy is heading. It is feeding into Interest Rates as well. There is pricing of negative Interest Rates in the u. K. That is a function of the fiscal side. Joe longterm on the fiscal question, you mentioned there has been this view, deficits are more tolerated than in the past. Do you think this is a more permanent feature of the postcrisis landscape or in the end we will go back to Macro Management like we used to see . Jens fundamentally, we are in a world where Interest Rates are pretty much zero in all major economies, china being the exception. The fact that Monetary Policy is out of juice means we need policy to get fiscal stimulus down the pipeline. Is the politics going to allow it . That is almost a tactical consideration on top of the fact that fiscal is needed to generate stimulus. That is the only game in town at this point. Great to get your insights. The founder and ceo of exante data. We will continue this conversation with the economic recovery and potential stimulus. In the u. S. , the odds of another round of fiscal support dropping this thursday as senators take off for the weekend amid a partisan split about what to do next. We talk about the latest coming out of d. C. This is bloomberg. Today we are focusing on the persistent problem of the pandemic. Our eyes are focused on washington dc, where democrats and republicans are split over whether there should be a next round of fiscal stimulus, and how much it should be. In march when they passed the cares act, they said debt and deficits dont matter, just focus on keeping the economy stable. Joe we have by traditional metrics taken debt as a percentage of gdp into uncharted territory. But we still have persistent unemployment. Interest rates are super low. Nothing ever seems to be a problem. The degreestion is to which we really need more and whether we can get more to get back to a full recovery. Caroline you were talking to a Nobel Laureate when it came to the economy, saying you need this fiscal policy equation. If not, you need tax hikes from a state level to support the jobs and so much erosion in terms of public services. It is a concern from a state and federal level. Joe for more on the pure ourtics we are joined by bloomberg correspondent. The democrats passed the heroes act in may. The republicans just past this passed this slimmed down one. Seehe view in d. C. We could progress on a compromise, or is the view it is game over in terms of getting anything done . That was definitely the view back in july, end of july, when there was a stalemate between the white House Republicans and democrats. The president had to come out with his unilateral executive actions to get things going. Now it seems like they are going back and forth. Biden says he will win the election and pass to trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus. Of 2 trillion dollars worth fiscal stimulus. Congress thinking maybe we dont need to pass something so urgently despite the fact that fed chair powell said more stimulus would be needed. I cant say. It is like a coin toss. Each side has ended up in their corners and no one is budget. Consistenthas been in his messaging. President trump has certainly been consistent in his. He signed executive orders that were supposed to be a bridge until congress could get something done. How effective have those orders been . Is there anything else the president can do without the cooperation of congress . The president mentioned there overme 300 billion left sitting in the treasury general account from the cares act that is unspent and uncommitted. Looks like right now he cant do anything with that specific money without legislative help to reprogram those funds. The executive action, the ui extension is about to run out or already has run out. It was just for the month of august with hope there would be a deal by the end of the month. Payroll deferral, not as Many Companies are willing to take that up. Federal employees are forced to take that option. They will see a boost in their paychecks this month, but in january they have to start paying that back. We were speaking with joseph stiglitz, nobel winning economist. He was interestingly quite supportive of supporting Certain Industries, such as airlines. It has been a political hot potato, some people feeling we should not be bailing out industries while not bailing out those on the ground. How much are we seeing any support for Certain Industries being talked about . Several senators on both sides of the aisle have come out in support of giving more aid to the airlines. The president himself says he is looking for ways to do that through executive action, which does not seem possible at this time. There is will on both sides. The other fact is while some of the payroll assistance will expire at the end of this month, they still have a 29 billion pot of loan funds available. Most of the Major Airlines said it is some thing they will be taking. A our thanks, breaking down possible next stimulus. California facing devastating wildfires, increasing job losses. We discuss the compounding pressure for the largest state in the economy. This is bloomberg. Caroline today we are focused on the issues that persist in this economic recovery. One new problem is the raging fires across the u. S. The west coast is where it is being focused. Evacuations straining resources that has left the region in a smoky haze. California is also the leading state in initial jobless claims that came out today. Joe so much trouble in california. Jobless claims nationally seem to have stalled out, stopped improving. California seems to be one of the worst states arguably going in the wrong direction. An 8 increase from last week. It seems plausible that the fire s are certainly not helping. It is just one thing after another. Compounding pressure on the state. You wonder about the longerterm effects not only on the job market, but economic activity. You talk about the Power Companies having to shut down power temporarily or longerterm. Joe joining us now with more is andrew brown, bloombergs new economy editorial director. It really feels like california in so many ways is at the crossroads of many different huge trends. Issues with climate, issues with the transition to renewables, issues whether the people that live there can afford housing even before all this. Issues whether work from home is allowing people to move out of the state, to colorado or idaho. When you look at the photos in the bay area, what does that tell you about the challenges business and economics are facing . These are mega issues. Facingsay, california is simultaneous catastrophes. Covid19 and some of the worst wildfires in the states history. They share a common story. This story is telling us that our relationship with the national environment, mankinds relationship with the national in the Natural Environment is completely out of control. Use. Onnection is less land in california, you have this housing crisis pushing people further into nature until they are now hard up against the wilderness building homes. Those homes need power. Power lines get mixed up in trees. They ignite fire. Andhe case of covid19 other pathogens, it is linked to the wholesale destruction of the national the Natural Environment, particularly the rainforest giving way to agricultural land, to mines, to factories, to residential areas. Bringing people closer to wild animals. It is those wild animals that are hosts to hundreds of thousands, close to actually 2 million pathogens, some of which are quite capable of jumping from wild animals to human beings. That is what happened with hiv, with zika, with a whole range of viral infections we have seen recently, and of course covid19. Caroline what a fascinating way to draw the line. In theerested silverlining to this dark yellow cloud we see hanging over california. There was one hope that we were not traveling so much anymore to an extent was saving the planet. When we start to see china refire its engines, does that show it is going to be very shortlived . Andrew well, yes, in the case of china. Up the boilers. Not just in china. China is exporting its powergenerating equipment right across the belgian road. The belt and road. There is this loose connection between Climate Change and both covid and the california wildfires. In omissions heat up missions heat up the planet. Plants, make them susceptible to diseases. Pollutione same way makes cities susceptible to covid19. Caroline that is it for whatd you miss . Bloomberg technology is next. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Emily welcome to bloomberg technology. Im emily chang in san francisco. New selloff in big tex shares. Volatility continuing to be the only certainty. Oracle earnings out after the bell. Telcom revenue soaring on continued demand. Oracle reporting strong sales that Beat Estimates on increa
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.