January 31. The fishing industry, which is something we have talked about before. Michel barnier was very outspoken yesterday about his disappointment. He sounded like a disapproving parent. Tom he sounded on the edge of being of american. Teachers at 14 right now. We have a wonderful guest futures that 14 right now. We have a wonderful guest. First, your first word news in new york city. The timing on this may raise some eyebrows. The cdc has told states that a Coronavirus Vaccine could be ready by november 1. That is just two days before the president ial election and it is an aggressive go about would depend on shots being tested and reviewed by then. President trumps political future hinges on the response to the virus, which has killed more than 185,000 americans. New polls show joe biden leading President Trump in three swing states that President Trump won 4 years ago. He has the edge in North Carolina, wisconsin, and arizona. She shows strength amongst women and suburban voters. Secretary of state mike pompeo has imposed new limits on chinese diplomats in the u. S. They have to do with visits to college campuses, meetings with local officials, and cultural events. The u. S. Is taking steps to match chinese limits on american diplomats. The Federal Reserve says the u. S. Economy showing progress, but some uncertainty persists. Bookentral banks beige report says childcare access has emerged as a major roadblock for workers. Worries about loan defaults have started to rise in the financial sector. Global news 24 hours a day, onair and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Within the mystery of claims and jobs, interesting to see what the market does. That claim support at 8 30, and then onto this friday that we will see tomorrow. 1. 1820 right now. Stronger dollar. Dxy up against 93. What i would note, turkish lira is really having a challenge of it against euro, against dollar. Turkish lira rounded up 7. 44 gets your attention. Anna yes. I saw some turkish inflation data dropping earlier. Lets have a look at what is going on in the european time zone. We have stocks across europe up by 0. 8 of earlier highs. The Banking Sector off earlier highs, although reflecting what you saw yesterday in the u. S. , a little bit of broadening in the rally stateside. It was a bout about a broader basket of sectors. Nasdaq futures do decidedly point lower now. Also, reflecting on the pound, we talked about some of the challenges with brexit, the pound down 0. 5 as the bank of england says it could do more. Tom every economist is different. Chris rupkey his at is at mufg union bank. He brilliantly folds yield dynamics into his economics. We are thrilled he could join us now to paint a picture of where the markets are in the and the economics is versus this extremely odd American Labor economy. What is the Unemployment Rate right now . What is the real Unemployment Rate . Chris thats a good question. I mean, they say behind the 10. 2 Unemployment Rate that is 16 Million People out of work. Roughly 27, 20 8 Million People receiving Unemployment Benefits 28 Million People receiving Unemployment Benefits . Can there be double counting for 12 weeks . It is a puzzle. There is a lot of people who dropped out of the labor force. Theres people working parttime for economic reasons because they cannot get fulltime work. If we had all those people in, the Unemployment Rate is probably not 10 , it is probably closer to 15 right now. Tom what will we know tomorrow a. M. 30, 2 00 we will go to a bunch of people that will analyze the data. Forget about guessing numbers. Conceptually, what are we going a. M. Ow tomorrow at 8 32 i dont know. M. . Chris i dont know. There is a discrepancy between the economy and a and actual joblessness. There is a lot of crosscurrents with the 600 weekly checks going away for august. Thats going to punch a hole in retail sales potentially. The labor market is kind of in its own orbit right now. We are just calling our way back. We lost 22 million jobs, payroll jobs, march and april. If we get 1. 5 million jobs tomorrow, for the month of august, we are still going to be down a good 11 million jobs for this cycle, which is frightening. Is more jobs lost, payroll jobs lost, than the last recession still. Anna good morning to you. I am just looking at a column, Bloomberg Opinion column by bill dudley, and he is making the point that the feds new approach will not help the economy not. He says recovery depends much more on congress and the white house. To your point about what is happening with those checks that were coming from the u. S. Government and maybe are less forthcoming now, would you go along with that view . That it is all about congress and what congress can do . Chris well, potentially. The fed kind of spent all their ammunition here. They are purchasing 80 billion worth of securities a month, promising people they are not going to raise rates on till back andlation comes the labor market gets back to closer to 3. 5 Unemployment Rate. They are trying to tell people they are not going to raise rates for a good seven years or something. I dont know how much that is going to stimulate business investment. It is very tricky here with all these crosscurrents. As these 600 weekly checks went away, subtracting like 60 billion per month of spending for august, we have the payroll tax cut coming on september 1. That is worth 80 billion if all countries followthrough. I dont even know if my own company is going to follow through with that. It is just a very confusing environment right now. Anna it is confusing. So perhaps we look at where americans are spending more not spending their money. What do you see in the propensity to consume and the propensity to save in the u. S. That gives you any clues about the way forward . Chris i was a little bit surprised at the characterization of the beige book. They said there was a strong auto sales. Auto sales for august are running about 15. 2 million annual rate. They were closer to 17 million at an annual rate back in january and february before the pandemic. Not that much pent up demand. Sales should be swinging back to 22 million annual rate for buy the cars that they were not able to buy during the lockdown. That does not make a whole lot of sense either, this demand side of the economy. Tom chris rupkey, i want to go over to yield dynamics. What is distinctive about the full faith and credit markets that speaks to us . What is the bond market telling us about where we are right now . Chris i guess they are telling us there is a flood of the quiddity out there that is liquidity out there that is dampening yields and keeping 10 year treasury yields down. There is a lot of talk that the fed is refleeting from decades reflatineeting from decades agog. I think they might raise the amount of qe purchases of treasuries from 80 billion higher. I think they very much want to, curve do explicit yield control, they definitely want to keep 10 year treasury yields down below 1 here. Thats one of the big drivers of their free money policy. Tom can you constructively reflate into a pegged yield . Will the bond markets show that . Youre probably right. The vigilantes probably are not going to ride again. There not going to sell off yields to absurdly high levels. The 10 itselft, may not be the best temperature gauge 10 year yield itself may not be the best temperature gauge for how hot or cold the economy is running here. It will probably stick very close to 0. 7 , as far as i can see. They wanted their want it there. Anna do you look to a time when we can take signals from the bond markets once again . Is this just a vision of the future . Chris well, i mean, i guess if the fed were to go i hate to even mention it suppose they were not happy with the recovery and they decided that negative rates in the u. S. Would be good here, i guess the bond market is still a good temperature gauge. It is a smaller scale, if you will. If it started trading like 30 or 40 basis points, 0. 3 percent or 0. 4 , that could tell you that the economy is weak in the bond market once the fed to do something more, like buy more than 80 billion a month. Anna thanks very much, chris. Ufg union bankm chief financial economist, great to have your perspective on the program. Coming up later on this morning, bill ackman, Pershing Square capital ceo. A lot of headlines around his interest in airbnb. What will he have to say about that . That is at 1 00 p. M. In new york, 6 00 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning from new york, london. Actuallyeteriorate, 14, dow futures 47, even nasdaq showing some read this morning. We will look to that in the claims report. Right now, he has the most difficult job at bloomberg. Llsry day, there is 422 po that come out across this great nation. We measure the unmeasurable and the measurable with a margin of error. Our chief margin of error correspondent is ryan. He joins us right now because he is the poll guy at bloomberg. I know you have never seen it like this. What is the biggest mistake we make now when we get into a poll frenzy this early in the final campaign . What Everyone Needs to do while looking at the polls is take a deep breath and look at the averages. What we see a lot of right now is that there are daily different polls coming out and that can get played up. It is like the health coverage, right. You will see something that says all of oil is good for your heart, says a study. Some people will immediately react and start putting all of oil on Everything Olive Oil on everything. Stick to what your doctor tells you, look at the big picture and dont pay too much attention to any single individual poll. Tom where is the margin of error best . Where is the most believability . So this is another kind of misnomer that people have, that there is a difference between the state and National Level polls. It is good for us to have a lot of statelevel polls. That gives us a sense of what different parts of the country are going through. People move in large groups. What you are really measuring with state polls is how the particular makeup of those groups is feeling on that day. For example, if the president is doing better among hispanic voters, then states that have of hispanic voters may see a shift in that direction. A Good National poll will give you a sense of where things are trending. , theys particular race really just arent trending. Opinion has not changed on him. The conventions didnt change the dynamic. Not a lot has changed the dynamic. Thats the other thing to look at. Unless there is a really big swing, things are pretty much basically where they have in. Been. Anna good morning to you. I am transfixed by some lovely graphics attached to a piece that you did which asks, how badly can the election go . Which you mean, just the process, how messy could it be, how distracted could we be and for how long by this process . We have to go back to 1876 and 2000 to find very messy incidents around the u. S. Election. How bad could it get . How bad a situation could we see unfold . Have been talking with a lot of constitutional experts and political experts and people like that trying to game out the different scenarios. And i just say like, there are some deeply weird outcomes that are entirely within the realm of possibility in this particular election. The u. S. System, its kind of a Ruth Goldberg contraption. There is always the possibility of some weird outcomes. But the fact that we have two candidates who are very unlikely like if it doesnt look things are going their way because supporters dont want them to and there will be questions on both sides, some legitimate, some not, over how we get those results, i think youre much more likely to end up in one of the where places. Tom one of the things weird places. Tom one of the things percolating is that we have already made up our mind. How large are the undecideds right now . Is really no Undecided Group right now in america. The question for november is, who shows up . Which people decide to vote and able to vote if there are problems with how the process works . Dontt think polls show that there is very many people who are undecided. They also show an extremely high number of people who have chosen a candidate and say that there is literally nothing that would change their mind. They have decided that they are either for trump or against trump, essentially, or biden. Mostly, they are saying they are against trump. Tom dont be a stranger. Ryan beckwith with us today on the polling, trying to bring some common sense to the frenzy that is clearly out there. You dont need a poll on retail. It is challenging, to say the least. I love using this word with this guy. Exclusively, the gentleman who invented the word exclusive for Retail Department stores, the founder of the modern saks fifth avenue. I would say thats accurate. Stephen sadove joins us at 7 00, an update on the challenges in this pandemic for retail. Features that 14. This is bloomberg etf iq europe this is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Counterking steps to Trump Administration restrictions on semi conductors. Beijing plans to build up the domestic chip industry. Over the next five years. Government is putting the same priority input into its atomic abilities. The sec is investigating robinhood, questioning wether soldnline brokerage highfrequency to highfrequency traders. Has to do with disclosures before 2014. Abloomberg buyout has made takeover offer for a railroad operator. Blackstone group and Global Infrastructure partners made the officer previous offer was turned down. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Waiting on claims this morning. Dow futures at 23. Plenty of data to watch for as we go through the session. European equity markets up 1 but catching up with the u. S. Nasdaq futures pointed to downside,. 9 . Coming up, how is the Manufacturing Sector adjusting to the new normal and how do you invest . This is bloomberg. I am anna edwards, live in london with tom keene in new york. We have been looking at data out of europe. The pmi data out from europe and perhaps we have a worrying picture. About the strategy for European Assets. Go to speak to you. Midwaythis recovery through the third quarter. How much do you invest around that . Do you see that as something that detracts from the appeal of European Assets . Alan it is an open question. If you look at european equities underperforming u. S. Equities, particularly u. S. Tech stocks, that is already a feature of recent financial markets. How weoing to be crucial see countries like italy and france respond in terms of upcoming data. To lookdata started softer again. Is also starting to soft and. Soften. We need to see what is happening with those two big economies. We cannot rest on our laurels. A locomotivect as for the e. U. The globalng at data, you make the point that manufacturing is adjusting to the new abnormal. , so about services dominant, yet so difficult to get Services Back up to par . Are services clearly unusually cyclical. Normally you see the amplitude of the Business Cycle dominated by inventories and Manufacturing Sectors. That is not the case with this pandemic shock. Services are a larger sector in than whate important is going on in manufacturing. The pmi data looks ok. It inflates the view of what is going on. Sectors areservice dependent on social interactions. Dependentvice sectors on social interactions are getting hammered and there is no end in sight until we get a vaccine. Monetary easing is leaking into , into housing and auto sales in the u. S. , into manufacturing in general. The Services Sector is not dependent on social distancing. Tom i want to congratulate you on your call that the earth would keep turning through all this. I thought that was a brilliant call. If we do not get stimulus, if we do not, we could run into challenges in q4 this year and the First Quarter of 2021. How will markets adapt and in octoberanticipate and november a difficult slow down to come if we get it . Feels like a long way off. We have to negotiate the u. S. Elections as well in the interim with all the uncertainties and new policy initiatives that will bring. Where monetaryap easing is wearing off, which is probably going to happen soon, and we do face a genuine fiscal cliff and if that gap between policy and stimulus wearing off and a vaccine taking hold and giving some to financial markets, that is a particularly fragile period. There are points of real vulnerability there. Tom what part of the alan ruskin world do we have to focus get thatif not we outcome . Alan the challenge now as a relates to initiatives in terms of average inflation targeting is that you have pockets occurring. One presumes that, if you are going to have downturn, those markets are going to be most vulnerable, particularly as it relates to tech stocks in the u. S. To other markets in a global view of things, equities have come back pretty strong in the u. S. Retracee markets another 20 . Absolutely, if we do get a downturn and we do not have the optimism we have had most recently that relates to medical solutions. That last point is crucial. The market has continuously taken an optimistic view in terms of medical solutions to this pandemic. Will bewaivers, that even more important for markets going forward. Would you suggest markets are already pricing in a vaccine coming at some point this year or early next . Is there still some upside from success in a vaccine . Some. I think there is there absolutely is some upside if we do get some success. What you have is a situation thatunts to a fairly a vaccine is not all encompassing and all successful. Markets have some of that priced in. Particularly globally and particularly in sectors which have been most hurt by the pandemic. There is plenty of upside. It will lead to a rotation into Service Sectors most hit by the pandemic. I think there is upside for the overall market. Thanks for your time, alan ruskin of deutsche bank. Thanks for joining us and stay with us. Lets get a first word news update. The cdc says states should prepare for a Coronavirus Vaccine to be ready before the president ial election. Shots beingepend on tested and reviewed by then. President trump has said he thinks a vaccine will be ready by election day. That claim has raised questions about political interference in vaccine reviews. President trump is denouncing a voting by mail. He told a crowd in North Carolina that if they vote by mail they should also go to the polls to try and vote a second time. He said that is a way to determine whether there mail ballots were actually counted. That could lead to voters violating the law of the try to cast a second ballot. President trump has ordered a review of federal funding for it is aimed specifically at washington, d. C. And portland, oregon. Any move to restrict federal funds is probably would probably result in a court case. Pitcher tom seaver has died. He turned to the new york mets to World Series Champions in 1969. He is one of two pictures to record pitcher to record more than 3000 300 wins. He was 75. Loeb alpha 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Anna thank you. Markets, on bloomberg the liberty oil fields ceo at 10 30 a. M. In new york. Tom bloomberg surveillance, anna edwards in london, tom keene in new york. Claims coming up here. We will go beneath the headline data. We have with us alan ruskin, bush chief international bankegist deutsche chief international strategist. Cold greek letter envy greek letter envy. There can be alpha, beta, gamma, and all the rest. Greed, Larry Mcdonald has a fabulous quote where he talks about greed breaks things. We are in the midst of some complexities in this market within summer liquidity. How does that play out . Question. T the equity market is trying to reprice for some unusual events going on. , the data economy surprises have been positive. The from the reserve and is change in regime in terms Federal Reserve and the change in regime, targeting is significant. At. 6 ,. 7 yields percent on a consistent basis is a big deal in terms of what ratios we should price for. We are trying to establish equilibrium. It does feel like speculation is getting narrower. It feels like it is him to into top tech into the few names. I do not think that is good for the market overall. Tom we learned about a phrase called portfolio insurers. Lets call that a derivative strategy. There are once in a lifetime event wrapped around events wrapped around derivative strategies. Mcdonald mentions a set or single derivative strategies that could get us into trouble, whether it is notional or leverage. Are we walking into a leverage that we cannot see . Alan maybe we can see the leverage. Circulaten charts about the extent to which a single named call buying is occurring. In techconcentrated type names. That tells you something about the fact that people do want that, derivatives related leverage. Whether it is systemic and terms of risk is another story. The fed probably feels we can manage a downturn in select tech names if that is what is going to happen. As long as the overall equity market does not really tank and resemble what we saw in march. The overall systemic view seems if the s p comes off 10 or Something Like that, those orders of magnitude, that is manageable within the context of what is happening. Anna maybe we prepare for that. Anything in the vix we should worry about . We have been caught off guard by positions in the past. There has been a lot written recently about the vix in relation to volatility and upside moves in u. S. Stock markets. Does that diverge and give you concern . Same it speaks to the in termsjust mentioned of the call buying occurring. You have this unusual juncture volatility relative to reallife volatility. That relates to uncertainties going into the election, the election itself, and postelection. To the vixou get out in february and march, correct upper 20srong, but looks high in relation to real life. It tells you there is a lot of underlying demand for hedging some downside fear. There is something to be fearful for at these kind of levels, but people feel they have to be engaged. You cannot just sit on the sidelines. That is not a great feature when you are chasing markets and there isn i think fragility there for sure. The discrepancy is indicative of an underlying fear. Air general idea that the is fine appear for certain stocks. Up here for certain stocks. Anna we have certainly come a long way on those tech stocks and there is a lot to negotiate. Thank you for joining us on bloomberg surveillance coming up next, another thing to negotiate is the underlying news flow surrounding the virus and vaccine. Joinss hopkins professor us next. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get your business flash. Trump administration set the scope of its bands on chinese social media app tiktok. 20, theeptember Commerce Department will clarify the transactions it will prohibit between u. S. Companies and the chinese firm. President trump has told tiktoks owner to spin off its u. S. Operations by the middle of the month. Ecigarette maker juul is thinking about exiting more markets. The once highflying company has laid off about 40 of its workforce and halted its global expansion. No word on how many jobs will be cut this time. Toys toppology holiday toys will be for exhausted parents. Children are spending more time at home because of the pandemic. It is Offering Energy burning outdoor toys and screen free indoor toys. Anna thank you. Thee continue to track virus, bloomberg has developed a unique partnership with a leading authority on covid19. Johns hopkins has been at the forefront of the international response. Every day, we bring you insight from experts in public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness. Today, we are joined by jason farley, Johns Hopkins nursing professor. Professor farley, really good to speak to you. I have been reading about how early results from various trials could be available as early as the middle of september. I wonder what we should do with that information. What can we expect from early readouts . Jason good morning. Data is always, for any Clinical Trial, taken with some grain of salt. We need to be hopeful about these findings, but they are preliminary. What we are basically going to be seeing is patients who have been enrolled in earlier trials, their responses. Know much about their ability, about potentials for exposure or reinfection. We will know how well they do or do not produce antibodies, similar to what we have seen in studies in phase two. What bearing that in mind, is the optimal speed at which authorities around the world, including the fda, should move to approve vaccine . Vaccines . Trying to work out how soon it is likely we will get approval of a vaccine. Jason great question. In the united states, the fda has a couple different options. With any Clinical Trial where have is randomization, we data safety and monitoring here and these are people external to the trial whose job it is to view the data and say, is there signals of a response . If there is not, they can stop the study and end it early. If there is, they can allow it to continue to go. If there is a Strong Enough signal that says there is great response here and it is helping to prevent disease, they can fasttrack a vaccine or any intervention study. With that data facing monitoring board will be doing is monitoring data independently of the investigative team. Fast there decision on how the trial continues to move forward. Importantly, public trust is really essential for this vaccine, not only for its uptake thinkso for, when we about the way the public thinks about the speed of things, we are hearing anecdotes that the public is mistrustful of us going too fast, and rightly so. Responses from vaccines take time to know and understand. We need to monitor carefully and slowly and to ensure that we have the right and safest possible vaccine options. Anna is it possible to fasttrack after these interim readouts . Do you have to wait longer . Jason there is the right way and then there is the fast way. What we should do is wait until we have the trial completed and the monitoring board has made its final analysis. Ultimately, i think governments are really looking for speed governments are really looking for speed here. The most important thing is we get the safest and most efficacious vaccines to market, and the timeline for that depends on science and not the speed in which that can occur. Are seeing,a we what other whatever safety profiles, that should drive decisionmaking and not a rush that could put patients lives and the public in danger. Anna jason, thank you for joining us. Jason farley of Johns Hopkins. Be sure to check out the bloomberg for the latest information and tune in every day for our exclusive conversations with Johns Hopkins experts for in inside look at covid19. Lets get to the data as we bring in our surveillance to a close. We have European Equity markets up by 1 . Fiscal stimulus coming through, details of that being announced in france. That is one drive. We see the cac 40 up. It is a broadbased rally, many sectors rallying today, catching up with united states, where we see u. S. Futures to the downside. Nasdaq futures down by. 9 . We did see the rally in the states yesterday that was about more than just tech. We will see that later in the day. Coming up next, more bloomberg surveillance simulcast on radio and on bloomberg tv. This is bloomberg. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. I think theres honestly much more rationality happening in the equity market when we look beneath the surface. Theres all this comfort globally around at levels. At some point it will be too much. The fed needs help. The fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. Fiscal stimulus would be nice to have. I dont think it is a need to have. Fear of instability doesnt seem to be in the cards. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. From the city of london, good afternoon. For new york, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. I feel like we should just deal with the elephant. Tom oh stop. Cut to the chase. How was tuscany . Jonathan tuscany was beautiful
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