Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Technology 20240712

Claims and cases of covid19 continue to rise around the world. Two majorly a small games tonight because players tested positive. Good news, moderna is kicking off a late phase trial of its vaccine candidate that will involve tens of thousands of people. Joining us to break down the day that was, Abigail Doolittle has been following all of the back and forth in the markets today. Modernity shares, ending today slightly down, despite the good news about vaccine progress. What stood out to you, today . Might have at the after hours view, that it was a little bit off, but moderna was close to 1 billion on u. S. Funding. It had been topsyturvy, ending higher after two down days but at one point it was russian a bull as stocks were up just slightly but at the end of the day the nasdaq 100 going out a nice gain. The chips index, take a look at that, with hope that some of the intel competitors might be able to produce those next generation chips. The big story, not to revisit tech, gold. Gold hitting a high, giving a bit of a tailwind to these risks in the after hours where we have five networks, the f5 Networks Company reporting that it have been higher when the results initially came out, but now it is down 2. 7 and this really has to do with her haps the fact that investors wanted more, they top and bottom line estimates adjusted. The Fourth Quarter adjusted eps guidance is better, to, so we have to wait to see what comes out of the call. I should mention that really, software gains drove the results for their fiscal third quarter. Speaking of earnings, big ones coming up, the big tech antitrust hearing on wednesday, meaning that more of the biggest Tech Companies, apple, amazon, google, facebook, reporting results on thursday. What are you looking ahead . The pressure is on, thats 40 of the nasdaq 100 reporting in one day and of these companies dont put up a perfect quarter, going so far, so fast, they will fall. The index as you can see is up 71 . Thats incredible it of course includes tesla and other companies, but apple, amazon, facebook, alphabet, you could make the case that these are all priced to perfection relative to apple. Its all peak valuation with high multiples relative to its own history. We will have to see these companies putting up perfection relative to the quarter that was and the guy that will be. Stay tuned, fasten your seat else, emily. Seat, emily. Only emily. Nd emily [laughter] we want to bring in our congressional reporter, emily wilkins, who has been watching republicans on the senate or. What is the latest in the emily remember, democrats passed 3. 6 trillion bill in may and have been waiting for republicans so that they can begin to negotiate and now we will see the republican opening bid. A few things that we already ,now, 100 billion to schools some so that they can reopen, stimulus checks and the extension of virus testing, all things that you expect to see in the proposal out later today. Emily all right, they have officially released the first part of their pandemic relief plan. We are working on getting those details. Talk to us about what the big sticking points had been. We know that the main issue here is that unemployment in their plan is going to be dropping significantly. Emily right, on top of the unemployment being given from states, the republicans have a proposal to give 200 dollars supplemental. Even that is temporary and would wind up under the republican plan steady enough to give people 70 of their previous earnings and is something that is actually going to take time for the state and federal government to figure out how to make happen, but you are expecting to see that you back. Democrats want the 600 extra supplemental in unemployment insurance, something that we will wind up seeing negotiated on on both sides. Emily meantime, Chuck Schumer has already called the republican stimulus package totally inadequate, too little, too late. How do you expect this to be received and where does the debate go from there . We are currently watching senator Susan Collins on the senate more. Emily its not a surprise that he says it doesnt go far enough, it wont be a surprise when nancy pelosi says the same. They will continue to paint the republican bill as not doing enough to try to push them closer and closer to the democratic bill that has more spending, more funding in more areas. This is what we are expecting to see from negotiations. From the timeline that we heard from lawmakers, we are hoping to have a bill passed at some point in early august. Emily again, we are continuing to go to go through the first part of the pandemic relief plan. Its a dense text, so we are still waiting on the highlight, emily. What are we expecting from the president terms of his position on this . I think President Trump understands lot of the country is still hurting from the coronavirus. We have seen lots of states trying to reopen, something that trump champion, then turn around saying that its a booming number of cases and we cant reopen yet. The fact cannot see things restart the way that we were hoping, the need for stimulus has become all the more clear. All right, emily, thank you so much. We will continue to listen in, here. I want to talk about what this means for start ups and what it could mean for Silicon Valley. We are joined now by russell hancock. Thank you so much for joining us. Obviously we are still waiting for the details on the republican side of this relief plan. Democrats have already said that they arent going to be happy with it, but what is your reaction to what we have seen so far . Specifically the idea that unemployment dropped by two thirds . Its a main street issue, america is hurting, they are out of work and they need this support from federal and state government. Democrats, republicans, they will figure it out. There will be the back and forth that you expect. But it will come down. It is a separate question about the tech sector and how that will be affected. The fact is that tech is weathering the crisis better than most. So, the pain that is being addressed is not necessarily tech centric, its main street which is so important for the country and not as much for Silicon Valley. Emily that said, a lot of these startups are fledgling businesses that need funding to get further down the path. We spoke to steve case last week , who argued that the next round of stimulus should be going to startups creating new jobs, but its hard to prove that companies will create the jobs when it is so far into the future. How much of the stimulus funding have startups and Silicon Valley actually received . I cant quote numbers, but its smaller than you with think. The truth is that in Silicon Valley, the startup culture has always lived in its own ecosystem. Cord tetheredical. O eventual Venture Capital this continues to be a closed ecosystem, even during the pandemic. We are seeing layoffs in the startup environment, but not the kind of numbers we have seen in other sectors. So, for the most part youre startups continue to be fairly robust. Your startups continue to be fairly robust. Emily meanwhile, we continue to watch marco rubio making arguments on the senate more as the gop debates their version of the stimulus package. We are continuing to go through the first part of this very dense land and we are plan and we are working to pull out the highlights. Russell, how many jobs have been lost in Silicon Valley . How many startups have been forced to close their doors . We only have preliminary numbers and we cant be precise, but the fact is that the Startup Community has not been hurt in the same way as other sectors, especially service, food, retail, they have been hurt in a way that is devastating. They are drawing on deep pockets from Venture Capital. Whoave about 100 and 37 have just achieved their first round of funding and of those, about 50 have to have some layoffs. Only seven of those companies have gone belly up, laid off 100 of their work was. As i say, this sector, it continues to be more robust than the others would have been, who were hammered by the pandemic. Russell, when this relief package, when you see the details of it, what exactly are you looking for . What could have a meaningful was especially important is the Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. That has been key. The difficulty for Small Business is that it has not been reliable. The red tape for figuring out loan forgiveness has been too difficult to negotiate and there hasnt in the assurance that it will continue, so you cannot undertake any of the longterm planning that you would need to. Those are the sorts of things that Small Businesses are especially look her in the next round of stimulus. All right, that was russell hancock, joining us from Silicon Valley as the gop continue to debate their version of the stimulus package. Russell, thank you so much for joining us and we will continue to follow those negotiations. Coming up, google is extending their work from home policies until the summer of 2021. We will talk about what this means for big attack and if other companies will follow suit. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Itly google has announced will allow employees to work from home and till july of 2021 and here to discuss the move is garrett, who covers google and alphabet for us. Garrett, this is obviously usually sick and the timelines get pushed out. What is the reasoning, here . A couple of things are happening here. In the memo they said they were doing this to allow workers to make plans for the year. I think that what is happening behind the scenes is that a lot of googlers in the u. S. Were saying the school year was about to begin, they were trying to make lands and related want to essentially get pulled back to their offices in the bay area. Googles timeframe was january of 2021 for going back to the office. Regardless of whether it becomes safe to return to the office, google is essentially saying look, so that we can all make lands for the year, there will be no requirement until next summer and other Tech Companies, facebook, etc. , have said they want to come back to the office but people who want to work from home indefinitely can do so as well. Google hasnt gone that far and that is partly probably why they extended their timeframe out so far. Emily right. Do you have any insight to why google hasnt gone that far . Like thats a great question. These other companies would also argue that they have strong corporate cultures, but google talks and thinks a lot more about that and i think at the end of the day they see themselves as an organization, i think they just havent been able to stomach the idea of making that call. I dont think that they necessarily need to. They are obviously under a ton of pressure to do that indefinitely. Curious tom also hear what the other Tech Companies say, that they will also extend their Office Openings for those who dont want to work indefinitely, following the timeline that will has talked about. Emily meantime, its a big week for google and other big Tech Companies with the antitrust hearings on wednesday and all of them earnings the following day. Do you have any insight on the arguments that the ceo of alphabet plans to make . We know that the companies are just to try to obfuscate the tough questions that they are asked. There will be a lot of i will get back to you to the congressman and ceos. Things without much substance. I think that the politicians really, really want to focus on and im aust russians little concerned that might not happen because just last week we were seeing the republican members of the committee wanting to talk about bias and put that into the antitrust question. Once you Start Talking about information and whether youtube and facebook are preferring liberal voices over conservative ones, the conversation really breaks down the ceos step back without answering anything. We are hoping that it will be a little bit more focused. Right, you will be all over it, as will be. Thank you so much for that update. Toing up, moderna moving phase three of Clinical Trials for the covid19 vaccine. This is a Huge Development and we will hear from the ceo, coming up. This is bloomberg. Big day for covid19 vaccine. News just minutes ago, pfizer said that they will start their phase two study on their vaccine candidate and their aim is to have one 3 billion doses by the end of next year. Iser is up after hours. Meantime, this on the same day with derridas moving to phase three of their human trials. The butternut ceo spoke to Bloomberg Television earlier today. You could have that timeframe that the baseible plan is not the best plan and when this happens, i think that based on the data they could decide to give us emergency approval and we may make the vaccine available in the u. S. For people at the highest risk. The elderly. Maybe care workers. What we have been doing, raised in order tollion invest in raw materials, new team members, training them. As we speak we are making as much vaccine as we can. ,e are making 500 million doses maybe 2 billion doses. Talking about attracting the necessary demographics in the ,est, how easy will it be particularly seniors . Are you struggling in that area . Are people coming forward and wanting to take the test . Its too early to know about phase three, i can tell you that as of last week we have gotten farther with people across the u. S. Acrossen farther, people the u. S. Asking to come into the study. We have diverse groups of elderly, africanamerican, latinos, and so on. That is very important for us. We want to make sure that the those in thes population at the highest risk. This might be a silly question, but bear with me, is it antiviral . T cell . How is it going to work . The vaccine is able to activate b cells and t cells. Its a bit complicated, they have neutralizing antibodies. What we have shown in the human study advances from two weeks ago with high levels of neutralizing antibodies that are four times more than those who have been naturally infected. Sign and likeod everybody else, every other company, we have to run the phase three to know the efficacy. We have seen others with t cell response. This is going to be the big differentiator . Is that going to be one of the areas where people receive it and they need to differentiate . Yeah, people are very actively looking at those differentiations now. We dont have any more data. Everyone in the community is trying to map out what is known today from the phase one study, from those that publish the data, there are only a few companies showing that they need more work just to show that the real test everyone is going to have to go through is to run across the u. S. Those 30,000 participants in the study, people sending placebo controls, focusing on getting that vaccine and that placebo, emerging the number into the efficacy of vaccine. The phase three is going to be the real test for everybody. That was the ceo of moderna there. Coming up, maura bloomberg technology. We will more of bloomberg technology. This is bloomberg. 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Technology companies have gone on a buying spree, waving off intense scrutiny from antitrust critics. The number of acquisitions by the five largest companies, amazon, apple, microsoft, google and facebook came at the fastest pace since 2015 to preview the coming up. St as well as Companies Reporting the latest results. Always good to have you on the show. This antitrust hearing was supposed to have happened today, its postponed until wednesday. You have apple, google, amazon reporting earnings the following day. Lets start with a hearing. How are you expecting it to play out . Firstly, its great to be with you. With thesertant hearings is that these Companies Really need to provide a level of transparency around their businesses. They obviously are key Building Blocks of the digital economy. Whats important is that others are able to build on top of them. When i am looking for is for these ceos to elaborate more on the business models. In the case of google or [inaudible] which they talked about, just in terms of their marketplace. More transparency and more explanation of how they use data. From an investment standpoint, whats key is that these Companies Continue to animate innovate and build and allow their users and the people who build on top of their platforms to derive value. How concerned should investors be about regulatory risks . Andel i think its a risk, i think its a concern thats been with us for a while, and will be with us for the foreseeable future. As these companies go into newer parts of the economy, and other toustries are always going be impacted by what these companies and their ecosystems regulators rightly are going to scrutinize more and more of that. If we step back and think about the broader spectrum, youve got the health care industry, utilities, a wide variety of industries that are subject to regulations. If companies are able to deliver values to their customers and ther constituents, really broader society, there is room for them to create shareholder value as part of that. Emily facebook moved its earnings to thursday because of this hearing. Youve got all four of these Companies Reporting on thursday. Big week for everyone, including us. What will you be watching, especially as you have, for facebookgoogle and what reporting earnings during a massive contraction in the ads industry, and facebook specifically dealing with a large scale boycott among its advertisers . We obviously have the issue of the recession and the pandemic that is impacting all of these companies, and that is continuing to be a nearterm risk. I think what the market is looking at is the bottoming of growth estimates, and really looking at 12 years and seeing a real excel a region, which has helped the reacceleration, which has helped the drive share price. Specifically for google and facebook, there will be scrutiny around how their ad business is performing. Of google, you have the core search business, which is seeing pressure, with the youtube asset is healthy and we will see improved growth over the next 12 years. Then there is the google cloud platform. That is a business targeting enterprise customers. We think thats an underappreciated part of the story. If we look at google, there is very interesting parts to it. More broadly, amazon obviously, they are doing well as a result of the growth of ecommerce. And apple, which is being impacted either demands, is continuing to broaden its drivers. Beyond the iphone you have services and wearables. A lot going on. Emily lets talk about amazon. We know that amazon demands for ecommerce has been off the it comes to antitrust issues. Jeff bezos is the only when we have not seen testify on capitol hill. We have seen the three other ceos appear before congress. How do you think that potentially changes the story for amazon . Daniel i think the amazon narrative is going to continue to be one where they are trying to bring a lot of value to their customers with prime, there is the marketplace that enables sellers, and really a much Broader Group of men and women, Small Businesses around the world to participate in their ecosystem. Even though that will be jeff first time in front of congress, i dont begin it changes the narrative. We have the amazon web service, which has become instrumental. Amazon web services has become a key part of their infrastructure. There is a lot that remains attractive over the next 23 years with amazon. But they are going to have to respond to what the government is looking for. Areeneral, whether they able to bring more transparency, that will benefit the constituents on the platform, and the company, as well as the shareholders if they can execute on that. Emily we do know apples ceo, tim cook, was the last to agree to testify. He reportedly did not believe that apple should be considered in the same category as these other companies. They did not pose the same anticompetitiveness issues. Roger frequently has made the same suggestion that apple, though it might have some competitive behavior, is not in the same league when it comes to antitrust issues as google, facebook and amazon. What do you think about that . Daniel i think there are important differences that are worth noting with apple. Their business model, relative to google and facebook isnt predicated on ad growth. Key implications in terms of how data is being used. So, that is a piece of it. Another look is when you look at apples influence, there is a small percentage of the units in the smartphone markets. Anhink the app store is important part of the story. The majority of their apps are free. There are some differences. Whats a little different with apple is that if customers want or be and other parts, they do not need to rely on apple. They can go to samsung. There are other smartphone vendors. Across otherdors products. Within music there is spotify. Sure, apple has advantages and they do a good job integrating things, but theres is the competition. I would add, in these other businesses as well, amazon, facebook, google, competition remains fierce. We all remember history with American Online and other platforms that were viewed as unbeatable at the time. Of course things changed. I go back to this point around innovation because if these companies are not able to do that effectively over the next few years, they are going to for trouble creating value their users, and ultimately their shareholders as well. Emily i want to get your clicks quick thoughts on microsoft, which is not one of the four current desk for companies will have been called to testify, that moved into the group of big Tech Companies. We did see microsoft cloud sales slow down. Faced antitrust issues in the 80s, in the 1980s. Why do you think they have avoided this latest conversation . Daniel their operation system was really front and center in terms of how people were able to access information. That was really the key platform. Of course things have brought out tremendously. Microsoftk at what has done, they have moved into other areas, they have had a lot of success with their cloud business. So, relative to google and facebook, they do have some in their search engine, but its not to the same scale. When you speak to customers of microsoft today or in recent years, relative to the decades past, they are viewed a little bit differently. They are really viewed as enablers of what these companies are doing to transition their businesses to really capitalize on the opportunities that are presented in the digital world. There are some differences. I think microsoft has executed well there are some differences i think microsoft has executed well. And from the paradigm there are many, many big players globally. Its not just about the united states, its about the global markets, asia, europe, etc. Out it changess those Competitive Dynamics with respect to microsoft. Flax, always good to have you on the show. Thank you for looking ahead for us. Coming up, we will dig into what this will look like, how it will play out on wednesday. All ceos will be appearing virtually. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Former top trader at Goldman Sachs is rediscovering what it takes to succeed as a long short investor as he leaves the capital through the covid19 crisis. Exclusively on bloomberg front row. Are they better or worse . I think any company that is going to have advertising exposure will be hurt if the economy does not do well. The question is, how much . What we like about those two is that as an investor who cares this rather than just soundbites, its something we can gravitate towards. Environment, most of all know yourself and make sure you are doing things were you can hold your condition without getting scared at the worst moment. Amazon, is it a Great Company . Absolutely. Would you like to be jeff bezos, sure. The problem is, i dont have a clue at what multiple to put it. At 300 Great Company times earnings . I dont know. Im not sure anyone knows. With google and facebook, you have to go and be a new paradigm guy. Traditional multiple multiples on traditional metrics were just fine. Somethingit, you get for free. In the case of facebook, whatsapp is arguably becoming one of the most important franchises in the world. Less so in the u. S. , but in europe and especially asia, everyone uses whatsapp. They dont make a penny from it and its costing them money because its a revenue center. , instagram and whatsapp. Youre paying 40 times earnings. Instagram is still a great business but is still growing. Whatsapp is an untapped franchise. For us, its a decent multiple and youre getting things for free. Google is an incredible franchise. They have also spent a fortune on things that simply have not shown up in value but someday will. Whether its automated driving thingsthe hundreds of they are funding. I have high confidence that they are going to have their fingers in all the important parts dont the road. To us there was a combination of great franchises and a great price for the investment. Thatately, agreeing something is a Great Company but having the christ decreasing does not get you very far. For us, these are the only two, the big stocks that we really sit at. Amazon you start getting a territory where its a feeling. I dont know how to go in value. Emily what are the regulatory risks facing facebook, google, apple and amazon . Goting us to discuss is loa, professor of marketing at the school of business who has written books on the topics of tech. Good to have you back on the show. It is no secret that when lawmakers have questions, big have not in the past necessarily had all the information about how these businesses work. Up some potential questions for the lawmakers to ask the ceos, complete with diagrams. Why take this approach . I think the majority of the scenes around anticompetitive behavior, a lack of oversight with these organizations have potentially been weaponize. I think that seems are not that mysterious. Typically what people dont understand is the scale of these companies. Referencedy, as you generously about this and wanted to be helpful and just put blog, just some thoughts and some of the accompanying charts and then for graphics just to get a sense or help people get a sense of the proportion in the scale. Emily you say that you expect Mark Zuckerberg to get the most ire. How are you with the hearings, which will be all virtual, to play out . The war is over before it started. The tech has already won. The hearing should have been delayed until they could do it in person. One of the real benefits of a hearing like this is that theres an opportunity for an unscripted moment. They have revealed something about the individual or the company itself. Thats less likely with this type of hearing. Them negotiating that they will testify together. This safety in numbers and it will be difficult to go deep on anyone issue. The antitrust issues facing facebook and amazon are much different than the issues facing , for example, apple. The big tech, as they often do with their army of lobbyists, the battle has been one before they show up. Base testimony is much different. The fact that you have zuckerberg you get the majority of the iron. Jeff bezos you get the majority of their praise and the idolatry. Cook and senator shire will just stay out of the way. Emily how would you put these companies in the order from most to least egregious on anticompetitiveness issues . Scott i think the answer is yes. [laughter] depends. I would say probably the most by traditional antitrust, its probably google, just because they kind of only auction house and they are also bidding and selling. Breakup, ifease of instagram and whatsapp can be acquired in the last 10 years, using it would be easy to divest. In terms of economic power and danger to the economy, when you have one company thats adding the value of all specialty retail, adding the value of the Largest Company in the world, walmart, in a sixweek period. You could argue that its amazon. In terms of regulation, when two thirds of our apple economy is controlled by the app store and they are suppressing products, whether it spotify, obviously cannot get a leg up and is inferior to apple music but apple music is going faster because they own the rails of the app store. I think each of them raise their hand when you ask who is abusing their monopoly power. Think apple is probably the least right for antitrust. Elegant antitrust, like a good virus, keeps the host alive. I would argue apple is probably the distant fourth. I think the other three have a very strong argument to break them up. Emily i want to dissect some of what you said. You mentioned whatsapp and instagram. Is thinning it out something you believe should happen . Scott i think facebook has very little motivation to comply, to put in place the regulatory safeguards. I think if instagram and facebook were separate companies, and whatsapp was a separate company, what you have now is a platform or 3. 5 billion people are on it every month. A population greater than the Southern Hemisphere plus india. One individual who cannot be removed for office will likely be with us another five decades who will decide the algorithms, which are not transparent in terms of what content and in which direction they are nudged. Typically throughout power, one truisms ofitions businesses that power corrupts. When you have an individual with this much power who has not shown great regard for the commonwealth, that much aggravation of power is very unhealthy. What you have with these companies is, if you broke them up in three different companies, in three to five years, these companies would he working more than they are now. Valueis still a lot of from facebook. I think they would have incentives to compete with each other and put in place the requisite safeguards so that teams dont get depressed or that elections are not weaponize. I think facebook is pretty right to be broken up. Every stakeholder wins in a breakup. The economy wins, innovation wins, the only loser is the ceo of the company who finds they are ceo of one of those seven realms, not the ceo of western. Ross westoros i think its very ripe to be broken up. Emily moving on game of thrones, you felt jeff bezos would get most of the praise. He is the richest person in the world but he has never appeared before congress. We have seen all three of the other ceos testify on capitol hill. How are you expecting bezos to handle this . Scott he is very good, smart, charming and likable. I would expect him to laugh a lot. He has a very likable laugh. I would expect him to talk about how amazon is hiring more people than probably any company in a three month time in history. 4 or 5 of retail. How could we be any threat to anybody . I think jeff bezos has more soft power than any entity in the history, with the exception of china. When you own the Washington Post and you are testifying in front of a group of people who cleaned to power and the Washington Post has a lot of influence over whether they get reelect did and you have the ultimate man cave and they all want invites to these parties. When you have 100 fulltime been morefrom amazon sitting u. S. Senators living in d. C. , it jeff bezos has tremendous soft power. I would argue that you are going to see this amount of fire for zuckerberg and bezos respectively, but i would expect that my prediction is that jeff bezos will put on a master class and go on the offensive and basically it will be a master class for regulation and antitrust and there will be no shortage of individuals were willing to give him constant idolatryth this gross of innovators. Emily lastly we have google. Dominates thele digital ad industry along with facebook. Sometimes its a little less sexy to talk about, but what are the main challenges that you believel present google presents . About theyou talk most important process in the history of mankind, its when our intentions become our actions. Arbiter is how our intentions translates to actions is one firm that decides which content you see when you articulate your intentions. If you type in how to overthrow my government, you get a Voter Registration term or injections on how to build a dirty bomb. One Organization Controls 93 of those decisions. I cannot think of another company, or where one broken upres, we have companies and its unhealthy to have this level globally when companies become less bar. Google benefits from the fact that its not an easy business to understand. They, i would expect that will largely just stay away from the train wreck and the praise that is going to be the zuck and bezos show. Emily ill be watching to see how many of your predictions hold true. Scott galloway of stern school of business. You can check out his post at scott galloway. Com. Thank you for tuning into this addition of bloomberg technology. Im emily chang. Bloomberg daybreak australia is next. This is bloomberg. Very good morning, welcome to bloomberg daybreak australia. We are counting down to asias major market open. Good evening in new york, im shery ahn. Record withs to a u. S. Stocks higher from signs that the fed will bring a dovish message