Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20240712

Nasdaq, we keep talking about this, up 4 on the week. Names thatl these have just done gang busters here. Up 10 on the day and you have lot of other names beaten down like the carnival cruises and some of those names. Really bounce back today. Up 8. 5 . Aluminum is big. Deflationarye forces that continue to hit this market and you really wonder if way for Market Participants search out companies with the strong cash and strong balance sheet. You have to think inflation comes as soon as some of that online. Omes you wonder when that demand comes online and how you turn around some of the disinflationary forces. Us Global Market strategist over there. The nextlook at earning season, which takes off on tuesday here in the u. S. Investors will be as forgiving as they were the previous earning season, given a little bit more clarity about how the economy is doing and the Health Pandemic is doing. Its a big week next week. Second quarter earning kick off next week. 22 over s p 500 companies will report over the course of the week. Get lot of data on the econ cpi and retail sales and housing starts. Get more information next week. Is the economy on track. Earningsrom an perspective, i think investors will care less about the numbers. Are going to be may so see some of the worst earning growth since the crises. L i think the market knows that. It built that in the share prices. To see is did the corporate trends improve in may and june. The Economic Data improve, we saw mobility trends improve. Want to seestors that carry through to the may corporateeriod for earnings. Companies can prove trends over the last part of the 2nd supportive for where we are in terms of stock prices. Will reallystors gravitate towards companies are trends end ofhose the second quarter. However, management has been about providing guidance. Going forward, investors should oflly focus on trajectory the reopening. They should focus on the virus trends and what corporations are saying at least on the surface inut what they are seeing terms of supply chains, visibility and profits and obviously how their Balance Sheets looks. Those are going to be the key investors focus on. I think the numbers themselves move stock prices a whole lot over the next couple of weeks. Im interested today, we did risk on mood, the in stocks flow into the fact that u. S. Treasury sole off yields. It yield. Record low are we likely to see sideways movements in terms of yields as the Federal Reserve remains front and center . Yes, thats part of the risk happening in the stock market now. Yields are very low. Veryre anticipated to be low. The fed has told you many times ways we willrent add accommodation when necessary. They have lots of lending programs out there that are depressing yields. However, i would expect yields if the higher anticipation or activity in the economy starts to reaccelerate. From a tenyear perspective, theres a lot of influences from the fed in just where we are with inflation in is keeping that yield lower. Awever, i think theres confidence level that if we can see the second half of the year bit better and Economic Activity start to return, i would expect that little bit. Come up our view is that you should be more cautious on government now. However, one of the few assets portfolio whenur the stock market is falling. I think investors need to income more as a total return vehicle, less like make sure thatd the fixed income in their quality and high that can protect if the markets, sees another volatility. Anthony, finally here, just we gous with an idea as into the weekend, some of the biggest risks that you see in at this moment . I think the biggest risks are that Economic Activity doesnt reengage. That the economy recovery is going to be slow and choppy. I think the market is still pricing in a vshape recovery. We havent talked about the election yet. That will add increased volatility as we get through the summer months. Really believe at this point, its about the reopening and the economy movinghe forward. Markets hope what the pricing in by the second half of year, were going to return to normal. What were seeing over the last weeks, without a treatment, without a vaccine, dynamics of how consumers behave, that looks less likely and whats looks more and more likely is a and uneven recovery. I dont think youre seeing asset prices reflect that. We get closer to the end of this year, if it looks like a recovery, asset prices may have a more difficult time than what weve been seeing over of months. Uple great to have you with us on this stormy friday and risk on markets. He you. We have had some breaking news when it comes to political moves over in singapore. We understand that the clearly the Previous Party continue to hold on to power. Not without some reduction in their overall strength within the political system. Opposition is one in their parliament. Continues, certain changes within the political pore singapore seats. Ion wins ten that does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss is up next. We look at the spread of the virus and what that means for School Opening in the fall. Bloomberg. From bloomberg World Headquarters in new york im taylor riggs. Miss. Is whatd you you missed rally into the close. We manage to rack up more than percentage move in the s p 500 led higher by the financials. Technology is the lagger today. That as we see facebook pulling political ads as bloomberg exclusive learning the company a ban onering posing political ads in the days election. To the u. S. Schools new political football as President Trump puts a reopening. Schools we dissect the risk to the economy with expert analysis ramirez. Stina biostatistician at ucla. Facebook. Ting with come and take a look at that chart. You see this with facebook, 22 population now checks facebook. This shows the power this company has. Users. Llion daily active particularly around the truth andg and the the accuracy of those advertising, particularly around the election and the pressure to contain some of that misinformation, that is where the story really comes into here. We bring out the story more with our bloomberg technologies kirk a great storyke for us about facebook thinking about banning some of the ads and doing a. Lackout here insight. E us this will help facebook cut potential for viral misinformation. You may recall that in the fall of heatany took a lot because it said its policy it fact check any political ads from candidates or campaigns. In particular, there are people theied that some of president ial candidates might try to use this to their advantage. A you think about putting temporary blackout on thertising, that would at very least take facebook off the hook for being the one to spread misinformation for these candidates as in the form of an advertisement. This . Serious is it seems little late to the game. Were here almost midjuly. Is there a significant amount of ad space here that has been on facebook and what will be the effect if this were to go into effect today. Much money does facebook lose . Well, i dont think theres any business risk. Those last for couple of days right before the election. I think in the past 90 days or so, President Trump and joe combined 29 million on facebook ads. This is not a material financial the company. What i think it does, weve seen countries in the u. K. For example, theres a blackout around Media Coverage and advertising. Theres a real opportunity here for facebook to own waystep out of its and again not be one that is this to spread misinformation. Of course, advertising is and center as the july, were entering july the boycott for facebook at the moment in terms of advertisers pulling away. They want more to be done in of hate speech in terms of misinformation. We knew thatweek, the civil meeting right leader. Againstnt come out hate speech enough. Spoke last week that we to the vp for Global Affairs and communications, take a quick listen. We do not profit from hate. Haveve no incentive to hate on our platform. We dont like it, crucially our dont like it. We know this from the surveys users. Conduct with you they dont like to see hateful theirmatory comment on news feed. Advertisers they dont like it. A question whether one is for or against hate. Everybody is against hate. Do about it. You it. Hat they do about we heard earlier in the week, making a post they have content. Tter on hate not been great. Few days ago, an independent auditor came out awaited civil rights company. The it was scathing. While facebook did have policies actually it fail to enforce them and specifically called out some posts by of may wheremp end he was talking about mailin ballot. That was on top of this ad weve been talking about. I dont think that this is the kind of thing that facebook can one or two small tweaks to change. This is a really long problem theyve been dealing with for years. Weve seen it come to a head. Probably unfortunate time for the company with the election few months away. Well see if theres any sort lasting changes with this policy. Of bloomberg. Echnology coming up here on this program, well talk about that landmark thatme Court Decision affected a good chunk of the state of oklahoma. Talk with a law professor, bethany berger. Talk about that decision on tribal territory in oklahoma. This is bloomberg. Were more concerned about too low inflation than too high flight. The epidemic has boosted the savings. Nary investment will be prudent. Have a situation where savings exceeds investment. Our balance of risks points to that withdrawal of more pressing is danger than the high levels of debt. Thats our balance at the moment. Theres a question of how companies, how nations are the money that they are pumping into their which which they try to support everything back up and running. How good job our nation is doing companies that are viable in the longer term rather that willthe zombies die out if they are supported in the shortterm . Saying, the shortterm priority, the number Public Health. That requires fiscal support holds, andhouse those interventions should be as lifelines. As situation normalizes as we pass the face of the Great Lockdown as the economy open gradually, we have in a sense to towards policies that ofilitate the reallocation resources. It is necessary to pivot from support to jobs to support to blanket lending much more he saidnating approach yesterday, its important intervention by the government includes capital type instruments, equity evencipations perhaps partial nationalizations so that be issues of solvency can tracked appropriately and the natural restructuring of the takes place. Lly friday. Is philosophy we hear lot of ideas. This has been an era of big to reimaginele try what society. Good job question how go governments are doing, how optimistic you are based on what seen that they will implement the policies as youre talking about. That oroptimistic about you doubling down on these messages because you think through . Ot getting we are actually quite effectiveby how interventionist governments have been in the face of the Great Lockdown. Have put out economic output with fiscal perspectives. Online document that policies follow by more than 50 countries. We see unprecedented action. See 11 trillion of measures, those measures are measures with above the line budget. N the they have been crucial to support firms and support households. The situation is very difficult. Uncertainty and the First Priority is Public Health. Were just listening to the imf Fiscal Affairs director on bloomberg television. We want to turn to Supreme Court ruling from yesterday. Oklahoma isern still American Indian territory. Tribes its a decision raise questions about the states authority to prosecute americans and enforce regulations. Bethany bergeris wallace at the yut university of connecticut who specializes in American Indian law. I want to start with the practical nature of what the ruled onourt yesterday. There are essentially for those folks who arent familiar with way oklahoma is broken up. Theres a eastern portion thats and thetribal land ruling that we got from the Supreme Court yesterday said what . What it said that was the creek reservation still exist. Of easternall oklahoma. It does include tulsa which is significant. But the remaining portion of oklahoma is the choctaw, seminole, chickasaw, within those boundaries. The decision didnt reach them. Were broken up under similar statutes to the creek reservation. The chances are once decided, be decided to the Indian Country but only creek now. Vation for its fascinating how this came about what started as a case, escalated into a huge decision regarding rights and tribal sovereignty. Can you remind us of the history precedent it sets. Yeah. This case asrt judge gorsuch here with the trail here. Those tribes were treaty, reservations and whats now oklahoma in exchange for walking the trails here which a died. R of tribal citizens those reservations, those treaty promises were basically broken breaking up that land and the turn offf at the century. Since then oklahoma treated that and as if its not reservation anymore. With anothertually , dwayne defendant murphy who challenged his federal sentence. The Supreme Court considered his last year. Justice gorsuch recused himself. Apparently split evenly and decide the case. Another man who was convicted in state court. Challenged his conviction on ground. Its interesting just seeing federal government warned lot about disastrous consequences would come from a ruling of this. What do you see as the immediate consequences, if any . Not much. What a lot of people dont understand is that this decision primarily only affects tribal citizens. Which are probably about 10 of the population. The state everything involving nonindians, stays exactly the same. They continue to implement its regulations, its Law Enforcement so on. Courting that the supreme took into account, what that the tribal nations and state of oklahoma and tulsa and every and county within that area withdy have agreements each other. To deal with the fact that theyve got overlapping jurisdictions. One thing raised in the brief that creek policeman caught double murderer who was under under thesdiction agreement by tracking his snow. Eps through the they are already working together and already are people within that area. It is just going to make it a their power to do so. Bethany berger, great to get your expertise. Of connecticut there on the ramifications of the Supreme Court ruling. This is bloomberg. I think youre starting to see the responses surge in cases. With the larger Public Health interventions like stayathomeesses, orders. Those were all meant to get our case numbers down to a testingle level where and Contact Tracing will be able to keep the numbers low. Seen a number of states levels to low enough loosen those restrictions. Youre seeing that surge of cases social distancing is help. Will beingent efforts needed to get the cases down. The metric that you used to reopen an economy . Flatten the curve. Does it need to be almost flat to be able reopen . Depends uponally state Contact Tracing mechanisms. The cdc recommends about a 5 Positivity Rate as being a good place to aim for. If you have a good Contact Tracing mechanism in place, you can deal with numbers in that range if it gets much higher than that, you youre notsystem and able to trace those cases, people and still individual quarantines and areathome orders, which going to keep us from doing these largescale citywide, countywide, stayathome orders. How close are we to a vaccine that would work for a large number of the population . All the initial signs with the testing of vaccines that are currently in phase two testing, are good. Responses toimmune these vaccines that are giving us the signals that we think are with protection. To take aistic, going long time to get the vaccine distributed widely in the country. Signs are good, the entire be ane rollout is going to process. It will take a long time to get in place before it can make a really significant effort. Things are looking good. But its not a shortterm solution. Advice toterm is your people to try to live with the virus and getting used to social distancing, wash the hands for the foreseeable future. Can take one or two years to deal with . Its difficult to predict a time line. On the right points. This virus is here. This virus is not going to go away. We can get it to a manageable place where things like wearing masks. Physical distancing and taking scenariosnt those where transmission can occur. Large gatherings places where people come into over the course of a day. Will are the things that down. His epidemic its doable. Weve seen this work in over states and other countries that have controlled this outbreak. It needs to be implemented effectively. If you look at the case counts and how theyve risen in u. S. , when well see more hospitalization and deaths . Is it two toger, three weeks or longer . Excellent point. Numbers rise first and because this virus takes to 14 daysetween 10 before really serious cases come through, youll see a lag in terms of hospitalizations. Often times, hospitalized cases take another week to two weeks before you start to see death. Ects mortality or when you see case numbers dropping, you have to be careful that the surge in hospitalizations and deaths may to three weekso after that. Any interventions that go in thosee expect to see effects two, three, four weeks line. He these effects wont be seen immediately in terms of case numbers and hospitalizations and deaths. Pekosz there from. Ohns hopkins now, President Trump this week theinuing his push for reopening of schools in the fall. Even threatening to caught funds to schools. This comes states across the country seen surge in coronavirus cases. The data is clear, kids should be in school. Christina ramirez ucla, professor of biostatistics. She join us now. Talk us through the data. Why is it so clear . Especially ing, other countries that have opened their schools. Children are not the source of transmission for spread. We found that the data from the kongoutbreak, china, hong and singapore, School Closures didnt contribute to the control the epidemic. A study from the institute past inr that look at schools france for areas of high transmission, they did not find fromnce of transmission the children in the school setting. Children dont seem to be the big source of transmission. Childrens adult to instead of children to adult. Emerging that schools are not really the spread. F showse good data that detrimental effects of keeping kids out of school. Really worry about. This interruption is really chances of anhe entire generation of young people, especially those who fewest resources and are more likely to be children essential workers and families of color. Well talk more about that side of the equation. Got little bit of a taste at the end of the school year. Mostast school year where kids either had to do it online zoom or whatever google platform they might be using at school. Some kids, some of the schools just shut down and let the and kids fend there themselves. What type of data do you have out there that will show the of doing Something Like that . We see from brookings institute, the nwea and others that theyre expecting the kids have lost up to a year of schooling in mathematics. These gaps in achievement are accumulative. Cumulative. We see that especially children lower socioeconomic status whos parents who cant afford tutor. Have high didnt speed internet. Ae gap is going to become chasm. As these accumulate, its going to be very hard for these children to catch up. Likely to get frustrated and drop out become levelsed and have high of anxiety. Pediatricians are seeing this in offices. Professor, you talked about generation losing up to a year in education. The best course of action . Do some kids need to be repeating grades . Do everyone need to redo the year. I worry about this too. Teachers when the students realizek, they need to that everybody is going to be at different levels. Have a really hard time but they need to be understanding that the students, especially ones who may not have had access to these online platforms, they will be behind. Tohave to figure out way keep them with the class so they discouraged. Especially mathematics we know kids can lose three months schooling and even up to half a year. They will lose English Schools but not as message. We see a really big divide in the gap in the summer slide. Now this covid slide. Im interested in weve countries thats been talking about sending back to schools. That was a real focus and government. The where is managing to open schools and build up confidence so . O have far about 20 schools decided to reopen and they have not seen an increase in cases, gives us hope that this can be done safely. We need to think of things where, especially for parents who might be essential workers. Their choices also of day care and schools do not have ton the fall, they make an impossible decision, do watch your kid or do you go to work to provide food for your family . A terrible situation for any parent to be in. I really worry about these things. Yeah, lot of hard decisions be made pretty quickly here. Were getting towards midjuly. Great to have you. Christina ramirez, shes a professor of biostatistics school the ucla fielding of Public Health. Lets get over to Mark Crumpton with the bloomberg news. Two World Health Organization experts are heading to china to howto figure out where and the coronavirus pandemic began. Scientist believe the virus may bats or wasting in transmitted to another mammal before being passed on to humans. A cluster of infections late last year focused initial fresh food market in the chinese city of wuhan. Cases suggestof the animal to human jump may elsewhere. Ed President Trump fade two deal is not under consideration. He said the relationship has deteriorated too much. To reporters on his way to florida. The possibility of a second round of trade agreements with china, he said, about that. K adding the relationship with china has been severely damaged. The president today slammed democratic president ial nominee releaseds newly economic plan saying that the former Vice President from me but he can never pull it off. Remarksident made the for miami where hell hold his in a inperson fundraiser month. That itsn radical left. He said the right thing. I done. Ying what the difference is he cant do it. He knows hes not doing that. Hes raising taxes way too much. Hes raising everybodys taxes. Tremendous amount of regulations back on. Mr. Biden launched his plan on thursday to revive the economy from the coronavirus recession with a promise to build back better than what the crises. Re biden added that u. S. Companies only bear responsibilities to shareholders is a farce. Because corporations have a duty to workers and their country. Secretary of state mike pompeo criticizing an independent uniteu. N. Human rights export at american drone strike that inled a top iranian general january. The incident that killed Qasem Soleimani was a watershed event drones that amounted to violation of international law. Calledry of state pompeo the report said it gives more distrust u. N. Human rights mechanisms. Global news 24 hours a day on quick tape by bloomberg powered by 2400 analyst and over 120 countries. Is Mark Crumpton, this bloomberg. Time now for smart charge. Joining me today is risk advisor, happy friday to you john. Great to have you and john, i as just taking a look at chart. A warninge showed as chart back in january and february. This week having its best week way back to 2014. Not a huge amount of trading 11 . Ry but more than this as russell 2000 closed down. How do you tie that chart into micro thoughts on the s p 500 and all the markets . Thanks for having me. I want to look at the chart. Bifurcation in the marketplace. The market has been going sideways. Stocks. By hand full of rest of the market has been going down. Toomost out of my chair when i saw how that index has become. Its incredible. That were seeing a correction in time but not price. It. s a piece of lets take a look at one of your charts, s p 500 chart. Littlethat youre doing prove analysis here to whether or not it should be where its at. Right, what i have here is a of the vix in the middle and bottom is credit spreads. Awant to show, theres correlation between vol and credit spread. Is in up trend. High. Still still above 25. What thats telling me, its be more cautious than otherwise would be given that we are in uptrend. See the vix break down moving5, below 200 days average secret spreads break down. Happen, this correction through time should end and break out 3240 will be sustainable. Theakes lot of since to see vix down. Some are little bit nervous. Golden cross that you were go back tout, you 2015 and 2016, there was a very brief golden cross before the came back and made a new low. What was more of a correction and not a bear market. Hopefully that doesnt happen in this case. It would be probably pretty brutal. Into bring the dollar play. This is an interesting chart that you have here too. To breakct the dollar down. Theres a little bit of rebound rally to the drop off the march highs. Correct. S im in the camp dollar peaked in around covid. Since june, we see that countertrend rally. So goes the dollar, so goes noncyclicals. They move together. They ebb and flow. Convinced yet that this countertrend rally is over. Finished, 1200 on the will give me that. Dollar weaksens can startough, we looking away from the stayathome trade, etcetera. Its tied into the vix. Want to see a lower vix. We want to see a weaker dollar this internal correction that weve seen so far since june. Its interesting, john, how way yoular chart the just presented looks quite a bit the vix. Theres high yield spread as well. Interesting to see how all of that goes. Thees some signs that dollar maybe will have continued here. Rtrend rally kolovs thank you for joining us today. Over now to the. Usiness headline tale two disneys. Shutdown. Our in masks will be required about. Over in california, disney parks still closed indefinitely. The company having problems with needed to gettime government approval. International Energy Agency has boosted outlook for global oil demand. In the report, collapse in fuel consumption during the 2nd quarter wasnt as bad. It projects that the demand strongly. Nce back it does warn that the recovery could be derailed by a coronavirus. Air travel, slowly picking up domesticthanks to flights. Thats according to the travel provider. Vietnam, indonesia, south korea, only countries that showed air travel instic july. China and the u. S. , they do nominate in the number of flights out there operating. Business update. If youre taking on any flight now, youre not going to theant to do it in northeast. Landfallstorm fay made northeast of atlantic city. Its flooding in new jersey. Its not too horrendous out there now. We understand. We got a nice little map showing Tropical Storm is going to go. Im interested, this is sixth named storm of the season. Number. Ecord it is a record number. There was lot of concern about earlier because of the wind at one point, look like new york would face the storm since sandy. We know what happened there. Look like the storm lost little moving littlend bit out of the path of some of folks who will be affected. Not so many barbecues this weekend. At least its not fourth of july. What part of new jersey is that . Know. Ont the governor was on at this time yesterday. Im going to bring more and more weather discussions. Flooded inoing to be and rained in and you cant go and watch thise former treasury secretary Larry Summers and Goldman Sachs chairman will be looking at reaction change to covid19 reality. Late breaking news here on the trade front between the u. S. And the european union. New list of 25 tariffs against france. To the taxated countriesat the two have been having. 1. 3 billion friend goods. Thats not a seismic amount. Theyrejust france, discussing for germany, spain and u. K. Adding what trump has been doing in terms love of tariffs and. Gainst europe it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this. Still some concern here over trading relationships. We want to bring to this program we havent heard from in a while. Down in austin, texas. One thing that was hot this treasury market. Im trying to stay safe. Absolutely, i do think one of the stories of this week was demand coming roaring back for the treasury market. Today was an interesting reversal of the trends all week. Sort of cyclical stocks sell off and today they back. S yield on the tenyear now. 64 higher. Ted the week the bid is relentless. Lot of people wondering when people are going to get concerned about the virus and down. Ow pretty clear evidence of it this week. Overall the theme of this week was lot of those back to normal trade, not doing very well. More economic damage by covid. Jet. To us about remember that was like the crazy robin hood traders are buying because cheap. R the stocks are the story is that one is in decline. Cases going up. That affect air travel. Week, weearlier in the know there are problems with capacity, we know theres problems with two layoffs coming in. This week. Wn have to end it there. Have a good evening. This is bloomberg technology. Lot going on for you at least market. He u. S. Stock gaining. Bens that the world could closer to effective treatment blunting19 and concerns even as number of cases. For more i want to get right to it and bring in