Our focus of america on Christine Lagarde yesterday, really stepping up and really confirming the independence of the European Central bank. Francine i think you are right. The markets are focusing on more focusing more on what is happening in in europe with the ecb turning more than markets expected at this economic response with extra stimulus from germany and austria today. 750es optimism this policy from europe they are focusing more on this stimulus and social unrest we saw in the u. S. The other thing i would point to is the fact that u. S. china trade relations, theres a lot going on with china stepping up 33 of then against chinese company. Companies. Rick hsbc tom hsbc and charter extending into the weekend. Here is first word news in new york. Todays jobs report is expected to show the u. S. Unemployment rate surged almost 20 last month, after reaching the highest level since the Great Depression in april. The may report is likely to show the jobs slump has extended into whitecollar positions. Payrolls probably shrink by 7. 5 million positions. The jobs report comes out 8 30 new york time. In buffalo, two Police Officers have been suspended after a video of them pushing an elderly protester to the ground when viral. The video shows the 75yearold lying motionless with blood pooling around his head. Police originally said the protester tripped and fell. He has been hospitalized in serious condition. Opecplus is ready to extend production cuts to prop up the oil market. It took almost a week of wrangling but coalition leaders, saudi arabia, and russia, were able to reach a tentative deal with iraq. They were pushing the iraqis to stop shirking their share of cutbacks. Negotiators are far apart on crucial issues ahead of a key deadline at the end of the month which will add pressure for Boris Johnson and the eu president to intervene directly. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine and tom . Tom thank you so much. Lets look at equities bonds commodities. It is jobs at 8 30, yield, yield, yield, yield, yes. Twoyear it is about a that has come up a little bit but we have seen substantial movement in the 10 and thirdyear space for a dramaticly steeper yield curve. The difference in yield between the 10 year and twoyear has moved three standard deviations. Saw ane looked it up and level 25. That is hi normas move. Francine treasuries falling as investors are focusing on the government stimulus. Especially from europe. They seem to be shrugging off this u. S. Jobs report expected to show the highest unemployment since the 1930s. Europe is fluctuating after a rally. Airlines and hotels leading the gains with european equities. They look for oil as well. Weeklyet for the sixth gain after opecplus reached a tentative agreement to extend record production cuts. Tom very good. We need an update on this exceptionally historic week. There are any number of ways to go. We have a conversation with martin checker. Officerief content for Bloomberg News but far more, the leader of our washington operation for far too long. We are thrilled he can join us this morning. Marty, you and i know this is a Pleasant Walk there is a Pleasant Walk from our bloomberg offices, meandering over to st. Johns church, to the expensive lunch you and i would have at the hay adams hotel. There is a fence in the way. We have fences from 15th street to 17th street, fences from the southern a live to the edge of the president s church and adams hotel hay adams hotel. Is that anyway to run a Nations Capital . It is, as you point out, quite extraordinary, and it is a symbol of the turmoil this country is in right now. It is really quite amazing. Francine marti, how will this play out in the election . President trump tried to do it about law and order. Everything he has done so far to try to get his base fired up and tried to get people who may be afraid of some of the scenes they are seeing. Is it working . That is the calculation he he will need to extend his base if hes going to win reelection. We have a story out this morning that talks about his standing in the battleground states of michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, where joe biden has a lead. Not a big lead but a lead. Without those states, there is no path for donald trump to reelection. Issue is hethe real has to fire up his base but he has to suppress the vote of the democrats in order to win reelection. Tom thank you for your perspective. Our chief content officer. We have wonderful conversation, randall who will join us and i want to grill him on the new Unemployment Rate. We will move through the jobs report to Market Analysis with jeffrey rosenberg. Rick rieder joining jon ferro in the nine. Jonathan ferro in conversation with Lawrence Kudlow is always after the jobs report. Stay with us through the morning. This is bloomberg. Omberg. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance on this most historic day for the American Labor economy. There are a number of guests we could speak to. Representative from Dartmouth College in an hour, two, or three. We will talk about wages. Right now, randall croson or. Him about speak to Financial Dynamics and we will get to that in a moment, talking to him about the labor economy. Has the news slowing, it been extraordinary. You need a first word news update. Buffalo, new york, an elderly protester is in serious condition after being shoved to the ground by two Police Officers. The video shows a 75yearold lying on the ground with blood pooling around his head. Buffalo police are investigating. The two officers have been suspended without pay. Rod commas extend insisting be latest iphone will delayed. Theres a major product cycle american phone customer. Broadcom ceo says the corridor will happen one sooner. Elon musk is stepping up his rivalry with amazon bezos. Yvonne tweeted that breaking up monopolies monopolies should be broken up and monopolies are wrong. Adding tohest man is the host of investigatings of upstart platforms. They have put they have been point at 1. 2 billion. It is controlled by an indian billionaire. They raised 10 billion in recent weeks and has an equity at 65 million. That is your bloomberg is . Tom and francine . Tom thank you so much. Greatly appreciated this morning. We will come back and reset with importing conversation on what you will see out of the American Labor economy reports today. We do this with risk on, futures up, yields move out to extraordinary new levels for the 10 year and 30 year. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance from london and new york as we moved to this historic moment for the United States, a grim jobs report at 8 30. If you need to be acquainted with the Great Depression, redavid kennedy, all 989 pages, of his magisterial freedom from fear. Or, you talk about talk to someone that understand the mathematics and dynamics of what we are going through. Randalloson are, kroszner. Randy, i am focused not on the Unemployment Rate with all of the criticisms of it but the all in Unemployment Rate, 22 percent, and nobody dares forecast where it will be at 8 30. Single statistic signal we have returned to 1933 . I hope we have not returned to 1933, because thats meant recovery will take a long time. But we will have an Unemployment Rate that we will have not seen world war ii in the u. S. The key u. S. The key will be how quickly we can bring the Unemployment Rate down. Hopefully more rapidly than during the Great Depression, but that does not mean a vshaped recovery. Tom there are any number of theories. Thank you for the vshaped analysis, but there are any number of theories of what the it is okte level of kind of like an employment rate is. On the standard rate, what is the goal . Get under 50 or say 8 15 or say 8 . Marty the goal randall the goal is to get to the ranges we have been over the last two years. At that is where we would hope to go, but i think it will take a long time to get there. Hopefully, we will come back down to at least low double digits by later in the year, but i think we will still be in double digits for a significant period of time. Francine what does that depend on . When we have an idea of what consumers will do . When do we have an idea of what the end of lockdown means . It seems everything is fuzzy. These unemployment figures are really staggering when you think of the amount of families that will have single income parents or not actually losing her job. Can they reacquire a job quickly . Randall i think it will be challenging. I think a lot of the policies that have been put forward so far were presuming a vshaped recovery, but we could turn the lights off in february and march or turn them back on in may june, but a lot of those businesses wont be viable going forward, restaurants, many hospitality many in the hospitality industry, people will travel less. Change of behavior because of concerns of infection and concerns about uncertain job prospects will lead people to consume a lot less. Recovery will not be a quick bounceback. It will take a long time. People will have to transit across different sectors. The people who are in the hospitality industry, there just wont be those jobs there to them. They will have to move to other fields, and that will take time. Francine are we losing quality jobs, and what kind of jobs will we create when the recovery takes hold . Randall obviously, the areas that seemed to be doing well are tech related. This is just incredible speeding have the concerns that been happening before that we labor to reskill the force to make sure people have the skills to work in Technology Rather than traditional areas. , if we were talking about things moving fast before, things have moved at lightning speed. The lightning bolt has struct, and we have had this enormous transmission where consumer demand is going to be. And it takes a while for people to retool. Kroszner, if we understand the labor economy is completely unacceptable, there is no question about that. And, there is a group of elites getting by and a group of people wait on the food chain, servicing those advantaged leads. There is everybody else in the middle. When we see the next fiscal everybodyto those else in the middle . Think that is i going to be one of the key things going forward, because right now, like in the u. S. , we had the checks go out to foreholds, a lot of support small and mediumsize business who tried to preserve jobs over a certain period of time, but unfortunately, i think many of those germs jobs will not be able to be preserved beyond the programs, and i think that is programs have to pivot and realize we have to support not the jobs but the person. Unfortunately, the job will not be there. I think that is the next stage in the support packages that will have to come. I think there will have to be a lot of restructurings and bankruptcies, so providing support for rapid bankruptcies, prepackaged bankruptcies, Asset Management companies, to make sure we can move capital quickly into the new areas to create those jobs for people is important as well. I mentioned a guy named blanchflower, in a college in northern new england. Onnchflower has done work wage dynamics. You know the mathematics of that as well. Its a great surprise for the rest of this year and frankly into 2021, will the great surprise we a flattening of wage growth . I dont see a lot of wage growth coming. I think there is so much uncertainty that is there that i dont see employees making very large demands, i dont see largeers willing to make increases because there will be so many challenges in the job markets they will be able to find alternatives. Growth,see strong wage or strong price growth either. I think we will have low inflation in the u. S. And globally. I think that is one of the reasons why central banks, like the ecb yesterday, increasing its asset purchases and the fed taking the actions it has, that it wants to try to fight off into a deflation situation. Enough, will it be randy, or does moore need to be done to make sure we keep the deflation away . Gov. Kroszner certainly the ecb has decided to do more proactively. I think that is important because Inflation Expectations are slipping down in the eurozone. There has been discussion of the possibility of negative euros negative Interest Rates in the u. K. In the year of in the u. S. , the fed wants to avoid doing that. It is trying to do that through i thinking programs and those lending programs are likely to expand considerably. They havent got nothing ground yet so i think there is room for expansion there. I think they will purchase a lot of assets. Francine thank you so much. A former federal governor and professor. L the markets are focusing on u. S. Jobs a little bit. The focus of the market is a lot more in terms of stimulus for the monetary side but also the fiscal side. The other thing tom and i are watching his brexit heads. As the latest round of talks between the eu and u. K. Have ended in a stalemate. There is also an oil story. If you look at the price of oil, it is set for its sixth weekly gain after opecplus reached this tentative agreement to extend record production cuts. Zoom cfo atter, the 11 30 a. M. In new york, 4 30 p. M. In london. She will be able to enlighten us on the future of working from home. Restocked our zoom Conference Calls like we are at the moment . This is bloomberg. . This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get the bloomberg first word news. In new york, an elderly protester is in serious condition after being shoved it the ground by Police Officers. The video shows him lying on the ground with blood pooling around his head. Buffalo police are investigating the two officers investigating. The two officers have been suspended without pay. The federal plan to contain protests in washington, d. C. Employs about 7600 people according to a document seen by Bloomberg News. It includes law enforcement, national guard, and activeduty personnel. The activeduty troops have been kept outside of the city. Forces include 1700. The Trump Administration expects up to spend one troy in dollars with the latest proposal. Mitch mcconnell says there are no plans to take up a stimulus bill until after the two week long fourth of july holiday. Passing italy for the third highest death toll from the coronavirus. The country reported more than 1400 deaths yesterday. More than 34,000 brazilians have died from the disease, accounting for 40 of the world daily virus deaths. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake on twitter, quicktake on bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Francine and tom . Tom thank you so much. It greatly appreciated. What we know over certain is in the market of equities bonds, currencies, and commodities, Foreign Exchange send signals, the deepest market and it is called, thinking back to your chemical set as a kid, the litmus paper. Next guest writes shockingly acute short notes, dense and layton with guesstimates on the timeline we are on and how we will move. Movement upd the here, the breakout the stronger euro. And he joins us now. Jordan, lets start with a little ancient history. What did you learn from Christine Lagarde yesterday that gives you strong euro in the future . Jordan for what anyone for anyone holding a short euro position, you had eu recovery ds and then german fiscal stimulus this week. Yesterday, the ecb. What really changed was the correlation to the markets. In the past, when you had qe, it is a cell euro story, meaning lower yields, outflows from the euro area into the u. S. , and that would be dollar strength, euro weakness. Into yesterday, we said to our clients, it is a different ballgame. Qe will lead to higher growth expectations after a long period of time, months now, of European Equity outflows from foreign investors. We said, if we get an unexpected qe program, which we did yesterday, then we would see inflows into equities and banks will outperform as well. We have seen all of that play out, tom. We in jobs day in america, dont do lagrange functions, but i will ask you to do to triangulate three major payers. Stronger euro, dollar ambiguity, and greater yen ambiguity. Triangulate them six months out. Jordan i think we will have a recovery phase in six months out. I think that is easier to talk about. There is a risk of a second wave in until wave then. Where are we at the recovery . The yen has the bank of japan on their accelerator. Strength,e have yen they will talk on the currency and looking to do something to weaken the currency. When it comes to the euro, it is a different ballgame. The expectations of growth in europe are improving and we have had months and years of underweights in european equities. I think that might start flipping for the first time. When it comes to the dollar, i have become i have been a dollar bull. What has changed is that the fed have been so much in terms of expansion and the double deficits have expanded in the u. S. As well. We have had all of the good news for the dollar over the last couple months and it has strengthened not strengthened as much. Now, we are getting the bad news for the dollar and i think that will have legs. The dollar should selloff. We are looking at 113 to 115 and the couple weeks. Francine what do you do with pound so far, we have not had much on these eu u. K. Talks on brexit. Jordan in the next 30 minutes, we hear from Michel Barnier as we if we had progress in talks. I doubt they will. If theres progress, sterling will rally because folks have been holding off on buying sterling because of the risk on brexit. Thisctual deadline for deal is probably around october into december. Summit could be on what the new deal will be. We are currently in this transition where it is in the eu, but when it moves into the next phase, it will be about moving toward new regulations, new relationship over periods. That is what i hope to see next year, but until we know that there has been a deal agreed, the hard brexit risk will be in the background. If Michel Barnier says no progress and the risk of a hard brexit israel, sterling should come off. Sterling, i am short thinking we will have hard brexit risk come back up again. I actually tried to talk about brexit these day less about brexit and more about the uks real yield story. We have qe from the bank of england that is pretty aggressive. At the same time, we have high expectation Inflation Expectations in the u. K. If you minus the expectation inflations, they have the lowest real yield in the g 30. That means sterling is unattractive in terms of your return after inflation. That is why i am trading sterling for short side. Francine will the bank of england to into negative rates . Jordan i dont think they will. They are talking about it. If you talk about something enough, make the markets price in slightly, they do the job for you. You dont actually have to do it. What is more likely is that they will continue to issue follow quantitative easing. At the june meeting, we expect 100 billion in terms of the qe purchases and that will allow the message to land. What the treasury is doing to be netted out. Stuff i think the bank of england will do. Tom thank you so much. A terrific update on the dynamics we see off of Interest Rates and off dynamic and stronger euro as well. Growthished for city tournament to go and you will hear extended conversation with Edward Morris on hydrocarbons and commodities which will be in the for clock hour this afternoon. Please stay with us. It is jobs day in america. This is bloomberg. There is a brewing frustration among africanamericans that they are not living the full extent of the american dream. The most pressing problem we face right now is high levels of unemployment, caused by the pandemic. That adds inequality. We are in the middle of the coronavirus, and African Americans are dying at great numbers then what they represent in the states and nation. The people suffering most, in terms of disease and loss of jobs, our people in the bottom end of the income spectrum. A medium wide of American Family is 170,000. The net worth of an immediate intermediate you cannot legislate away racism and it still exists. Disparity still exists. Tom good morning, everyone. Some of the voices this week on this amazing moment for the United States of america. Francine lacqua and i want to take a moment as we stagger toward the 830 jobs report 8 30 jobs report, and Jonathan Ferro on lauren cut Lawrence Kudlow. Just a frame on how we see the United Kingdom in the United States economy. I think i have talked much today about how i will look at the all in Unemployment Rate of america. What is the United Kingdom like . Is it as grim in the United Kingdom as here . Francine it is, but if you think about where the economies were, there are vastly different cycles so it is a bit more end cycle in the u. K. The programs that the government gave to people furloughed are also different. Given the economies are paralleled with maybe two to three years difference, some of the schemes could see unemployment figures that could differ a lot. The numbers are staggering. A much smaller economy. The numbers are not as high as the u. S. , tom. Really interesting as well. The scope and scale, the size of the u. S. Versus the u. K. Is a key variable there. Joining us with perspective, i read every word of her morning note. She joins us from bloomberg economics, working with carl riccadonna. Alayna, i thought your note was brilliant about the mystery beyond this jobs report. Im focusing not on the you three statistic. There is six unemployment ratios. Im not looking at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Im looking at the you six rate at 22 im looking at the rate at 22 . Could we see that about 25 today . Absolutely. 22. 8, so around 23 . I think we can see that going up to another five percentage points. If you just project what you expect for you three, roughly a 5 increase in the forecast. That is going to be at the level we saw during the Great Depression. I think the unemployment numbers will be much worse than the payroll number itself. Francine thank you so much. There seems to be a bit of interference. We will leave it there for now. There. Shulyatyeva a conversation on market. Coming up, blackrock chief investment officer, a conversation you dont want to miss, and not a clock a. M. In new york and 2 00 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. 9 00 in new york and 2 00 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get your Bloomberg Business flash. Slack is not confident it will benefit as much from the work from home era as investors expect. They have withdrawn their annual billing forecast. Combination chat room and platform to automate tasks. The Justice Department is formally demanding information from the four biggest u. S. Meatpackers in an antitrust investigation. Thannd others control more 80 of the countries processing market. Their dominance sparked concern about their Pricing Power over livestock suppliers. The companies are not commenting. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Tom and francine . Francine thank you so much. Every day we focus on covid19 and we try to track it with the experts in this. Joining us now is a representative from thank you for joining us. When you look at vaccine trials we have seen, how are the antibodies and anybody testing developing . Can they be used to make sure we have a safer vaccine . A things are progressing at nice pace when it comes to some of the vaccine trials. Studies are moving forward into their second phase, which is often times the phase where we get signs of whether vaccines have the potential to be efficacious or work in the population while. In addition, there have been a few studies that have started using just antibodies as a therapy. Vaccines induce antibodies. Some companies jumped to the fact of giving people those antibodies directly in terms of a treatment. Though studies are moving forward also. They have shown good promise initially, so from the side of your immune response, there has been continued, Good Progress towards seeing whether or not we have good, future treatments for this. Francine are we losing Public Health restrictions in a good way . Are we able to Contact Trace people that may fall ill again to make sure it is contained . Thats a great question. Results i would say. When you look across, through the United States, there are some states that are doing a good job in terms of keeping cases level while they are loosening restrictions. There are a few states where you start to see upticks in terms of the number of cases there. Everything comes down to being good about identifying cases and being able to track those cases so the people who are coming in contact with those individuals can be identified and isolated. That is the phase we are moving into as we try to expand our economy, loosen Public Health restrictions, but keep the virus down. The stage will be proactive, monitor, and work towards optimizing those contact identification, testing, and Contact Tracing strategies for these rollouts to be able to be sustained. Francine will Contact Tracing work . Is there a better way since reopening the economy and seeing the number of deaths to try to track where it is . We will have to really change the way we are approaching our day in, day out life. The social distancing, mask wiring, various other things in terms of crowds in places. These will be the things we will have to deal with for the next, at least, six months to a year or more. To make sure we are keeping this virus down and not seeing the surge of cases that so many parts of the country saw this spring when the virus first made its way across the United States. Francine andrew, what do we know about antibodies . Our antibody something that protect you against getting infected or, for the moment, do these tests only prove you have had covid19 . Yeah, so another great question. We are learning more about the anybody reactions and there are good results coming from that. The important thing to note is the tests are a bit more limited in what they tell you. The tests can tell you if you have been infected, but they cannot tell you if they have these protective antibody levels, at least the tests at least not the tests around now. We have to be careful about the Antibody Testing, which is increasing across the country as it becomes more available. It tells you if you have been exposed but does not tell you if you are protected from reinfection. Francine doesnt make sense to get tested one time but wait for more sophisticated Antibody Testing . Will these come out to be able to tell you if you are protected from the virus and for how long . Andrew i think there is a hope that, once we have identified what arm of the antibody responses are providing the protection to people, then the tests can be finetuned so we are answering both questions, have you been exposed and are you protected at the same time. It will take time for us to come up with those tests, simply because we have to wait and make sure the people who have been infected have these immune responses for longer periods of time. Some things can be moved forward quickly. Other things such as understanding if you are still protected from infections six months after you have been infected takes time, which is kind of the obvious thing there, but it does take time for us to understand the full length of protection induced by infection. Francine how much do we understand about certain communities in certain countries affected more than others . Is it just the spreading of the virus and social distancing in place, or is there more of a deeper and concerning response linked to genetics . Andrew andrew those are the studies in place andrew those of the studies in place. Right now, we have population studies going on. We know there are parts of the population that are more susceptible to disease. Separating out social economic factors from genetic factors is something that is a high priority level. We have a lot of we have had a lot of unrest this week in terms of racial tensions. One of the things weve noticed in the u. S. Is minority populations seem to be much more strongly hit by the virus than other populations. We know the elderly, and there is much data suggesting men are more susceptible to severe disease than the rest of the population. There are a lot of factors coming out from the data these days that merits more investigation. The u. S. Today is asking for additional demographic information on covid19 infected patients that can target and understand the subpopulations affected by severe disease. There is still a lot to learn, but the data is coming in and we are collecting it in ways we will be able to identify highrisk populations and get the reasons why they are highrisk. Francine quickly, is the second wave likely over the wintertime . Is it seasonal . Andrew yeah, so it is looking more and more like there is seasonality to this virus. Right now, we will continue to see cases. There are so many people that have no immunity to this virus. It is relatively easy for the virus to find people to infect right now. Once we move back inside and humidity and temperature drops, we expect there will be a surge of cases similar to what we saw perhaps in the 2009 h1n1 pandemic, where the virus simmered over the summer and caused a strong surge of cases in the fall. We hope to be more prepared for that and be able to deal with it better. Francine andrew, thank you so much for your time. Be sure to check out the rsu go on bloomberg for the latest information. Tune in for exclusive conversations with john hopkins experts. More bloomberg surveillance is next. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Jonathan alongside dean, im Jonathan Ferro alongside tom ferro,im jonathan together with lisa abramowicz. An equity market on the nasdaq 100 just short of alltime highs. Quite a contrast. Tom absolutely historic moment. We were speaking with the former governor the fed moments ago