North korea, but that is where the mystery starts, doesnt it . Francine it is a mystery. You have conflicting reports. Doctors are saying he is back to work and some in the u. S. Say he is in Critical Condition. There is no clear succession plans and authorities around the world including the u. S. Are trying to figure out who is next in line or do you have some military coup detat taking over . All eyes are what is going on in the oil market, june wti oil to 11. 17 ang 49 barrel. Crude,e plunge in brent 19 a barrel on the global oil price. Right now, 20 1. 81 on brent de, an extraordinary shift 21. 81 on brent crude, and extraordinary shift. Viviana speculation about the health of north koreas leader kim jongun. Inicials getting word he was Critical Condition after cardiovascular surgery. The white house reportedly was told mr. Kim took a turn for the worst. Recent6 and missed holiday celebrations in pyongyang. Issue anump plans to executive order suspending immigration. He tweeted the move is needed to contain the coronavirus and will protect american jobs. Word on how no long the suspension will last and who it will affect. Oil is rebounding after a recordsetting day, crude sinking to 40 a barrel. There is fear the those who take delivery of oil in the future may not have a place to store it. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, we could do a one day data check one hour data check. The dow at 23,171. In the oil moves, i will let francine do that yields have broken down, the two year yield decisively under 2 and the 10 year yield comes in two basis points,. 58 . Francine there is no other way isput it, the oil rout continuing. Treasuries edging higher. The june contract plunging, the below zero. For wti there is concern about the health of the north korean leader, more uncertainty in this market already roiled. Numbers at the margin are getting better. Tom we are going to continue withoverage, martin rats us in the last hour and harry until injure the other day tillinger the other day. Kevin book joins us now with an interesting look on washington policy. Oil,gin on the price of what is the significance that brent crude global oil has joined the fall in oil this morning . Kevin the significance is that there are two stories and have balancesen, the global story and local inventory story. We have seen the local inventory play out but the global balances are mismatched, supply ahead of demand by about 28 Million Barrels a day. That is downward pressure on brent like the wti forward strip. You cannot sell it when there is no demand and it is starting to come home to market. At clearare expert view on the tea leaves of washington. If there was an opecplus with the leader of the cartel donald trump a couple of days ago, what does opecplus and mr. Trump do now . Kevin the metaphor we have used is this is the crisis that forms minds in crisis. From the perspective of opecplus, the next scheduled meeting is june 10 but i would suggest there are incentives to address deeper cuts or faster compliance. President is getting pressure in washington. The argument is that other oil is not necessary because there is too much oil here. That might be a fight for the margins. Late, but thatoo is the politics of the moment. Francine what does it mean for the oil industry as a whole . How Many Companies will have to go bust . Kevin in terms of how they adjust, the financial conditions of the industry was not particularly healthy because of weakness prior to covid. In covid, there may not be any capitalists. We are looking at a massive government intervention. If you watch the Texas Railroad Commission Last week hearing, 10 hours long, one after another oilman pledging their oilfield to the conservative gods before they would start asking for intervention, most smaller and mediumsized players. They are asking for the government to step in. These are not people who love government, but the people elected to office maybe should stand on the sideline but are not likely to do so. Francine can we see how many shale before it becomes a systemic problem in the u. S. . Kevin part of that has to do with the nature of government intervention. Around from one to another does not Keep Companies alive. Whether step will be interventions can monetize these companies. Billion fed levered controlled treasury controlled debt could be a way to do it the bankruptcies will be a function of when the cash call comes from the banks and how lenient the bank will be, whether there is dollars coming from washington in the right form. There will be a few of them. We have only seen one significant big bankruptcy. Not operating near their cash coverage and you will see small bankruptcies right away. Tom kevin book, thank you so much. We look forward to speaking to you again, so much of washington will be involved with oil. Kevin thanks for having me. Tom coming up, we have got adam posen to join us, the head of the peterson and the dude. Peterson institute. Stay with us, this is bloomberg. Good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance. Thrilled you are with us. Right now, we would like to welcome adam posen of the Peterson Institute and has been very visible over the last couple of days on the issues of the moment. What will you write about next . The fiscal exercise we are going through, the monetary experiments, or do you listen to jake kierkegaard and say whether europe . Adam the world has so much to deal with. We have to think of europe, that will be decided in the next couple of days and jacob is tracking that. Andtary is about expressing explaining why inflation is not around the corner but what are the mediumterm risks. Fiscal has been talked to death on this agreement for where we are in the shortterm. We have to talk about the failings of the g20 and the debt crisis in emerging markets and developing countries, and whether they need to take a different step on public health. Tom within the structure we all have come of the beliefs and foundational theories we have, mr. Marshall to and supply and demand. We have been oversupply, that is a theory that is out there, but now it is about massive demand destruction. About thee a believe return of rapidity . Consensus, we to are a bit more favorable on that. It is going to be in certain set sectors, travel, tourism , in person services, and retail, but the overall demand we expect, as my colleague jason furman has pointed out, those who are getting unemployment checks or furloughed checks, those are a high share of income and they are not spending so the Balance Sheets are improving as we speak. The supplyside mismatch this is my view will not be as bad as some make it out to be in terms of shortterm inflation or shortages when we get to the other side. The recovery looks decent. It will not get us back to where we were on unemployment very soon, but it will be strong and decent. Francine what will it change . What is the longterm implication . Lets assume it does not become a financial crisis. Does the change the government contract in terms of social safety net and will that happen around the world . Adam you are absolutely right to raise that. The government contract as you aptly put it is the critical issue. What is the government contract with taxpaying business if you are bailing them out and protecting them . What is the contract with workers in uncertainty . How much is the outcome in the europersus canada and and how much of the welfare shape state should continue comps should continue . This idea of the government andontracting is critical as francine said, you dont advocate, you point out, but i advocate it is time the u. S. Get with the program and do better for its workers engaged in the labor force with the jobs they have. Francine what does this mean for deficits . What wething changes are expecting of government, can the u. S. Afford it . Adam the u. S. Can always afford it if it is willing to raise taxes. The tax collection of the u. S. Is less, and we are counting state and local taxes, then other similar countries and it is inefficient. There is the issue of International Taxation and leakages that way, so we can afford it if we pay for it. That is the main point. The deficits now are huge and are not sustainable to go up indefinitely. The size of the state and the changing role of the states sustainable if it is to pay for it. We waste so much money on health care in the u. S. We have seen a collapse in health care demand while the covid crisis has been going on tells us how much is overpriced and elective, and we could save a lot of money by changing that. Talk,ll of this is great except i see a congress totally in culture war gridlock and the culture war i dont mean to pick on mr. Reagan but the individualistic, go along tone was recodified in the 1980s and 1990s as well. In aoes that debate change bitterly divided america . Point,t is a really good and your characterization of congress and the political system is correct, but some fights are worth fighting and not everything in politics is forever. Think of the conversation you were just having before i came on talking about the texas commission, saying these individualists from texas. And othercommission organizations like it are using government power to look after oligopolistic interests. It is not about government individualism, it is about whose interest gets served. We got a welfare state in britain catching up after world war ii when returning soldiers came home and said, i see a different way, we could think of those terms for the u. S. Issues, whatother the congress thinks is increasingly out of step with what the majority of americans think. At some point in a democracy those should catch up. Tom we are thrilled adam posen is with us. With brent crude lower, we will continue with dr. Pozen. Posen. Bloomberg dr. This is surveillance, tom and francine this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. Adam posen is with us. What is your prescription to get allpe talking again without of this animosity between northern and southern countries . Past it is hard to get that animosity because we are ending up with a compromise and jacob kierkegaard has a favorable view on the substance of this compromise in terms of the amount of money being paid, the precedents being set for joint issuance of debt. The Spanish Government came out with a brilliant, brave, and well reasoned argument. There should be eurobonds and there should be some kind of longtermrt and commitment of euro area solidarity, and if there is instead a compromise, no one is happy. Northern wing in the economy says, they are still getting money from us and without conditions, what the hell is going on . At the best, we are doing this as charity. Says, we have been very responsible and this is not our fault, and why the hell are we staying here if you do not show solidarity now . The political gap and pressure remains even if the economic substance is improving. Francine there is a fixation with corona bonds. Do we need corona bonds or are there other ways of helping countries like italy without a payout a bailout that does not involve corona bonds . Adam that is what the european is trying, this whole panoply of measures, including with the investment bank, what the ecb is doing, including the article 122. Ultimately there is a number of us not just at peterson but at the central bank, you have an incomplete fiscal union and the Monetary Union remain politically and economically at risk, so the absence of corona bonds eventually becoming european bonds is not just a missed opportunity, it is an ongoing weakness. We can help italy in a number of ways. You are going to see these spreads we are seeing now on italian bonds despite ecb action , until you have some kind of european intervention. Generous for you to be with us today. I want to highlight what the markets are doing. What is distinctive now in the last 24 hours is yesterday it cushing, oklahoma oil down. Brent crude was relatively steady and that changed with tont plummeting from 26 down 20 and now it to one a1 dollars a barrel. We have now to 21 a barrel. The june contract i think is 18. Yields have come in with a vengeance, the u. S. 10 year over three basis points. All of a sudden, the 10 year yield is worth watching. We will continue a good conversation on the equity markets. Greg boutle will join us. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. You are watching bloomberg surveillance. The mystery about the health of kim jongun, u. S. Officials learned he was in Critical Condition last week after cardiovascular surgery. The Trump Administration is trying to find out more. Kim is 36 and last week he missed holiday celebrations. President trump will temporarily suspend immigration to the u. S. He wants to contain the spread of the coronavirus and says the move would protect jobs of american citizens. No law no word on how long it will last the u. S. Treasury department handed out 2. 9 billion to devastated u. S. Airlines and there is more to come, the governor reaching rest year rescue agreements with the four biggest carriers. More than 50 Smaller Airlines will also be helped. In italy, the government will present a plan to ease the rigid lockdown. The Prime Minister indicating that reopening will take time. He wants to lower the risk that coronavirus will start spreading again. U. S. , italy suffered the most deaths. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. Theited conversations with themes changing out of washington. Our jon ferro yesterday spoke with strick kudlow of the white house mr. Kudlow of the white house. Larry there mightve been some glitches here and there. Secretary mnuchin has done a good job over treasury working with sba. On the whole, judging how fast that 350 billion went out the door, went out the window, i think it is a good program. My view, we are stepping up into the mediumsized area, but that is principally through the Federal Reserve cost lending facilities Federal Reserves lending facilities, and there will be assistance to large, important country does companies that have hardship. It is a solid program. There are always tweaks here and there but the fact that it work so quick we is testament to its efficiency. Jonathan i thought there would be trouble getting money out the door. I was wrong about that, but if a 1 billion company can get access to the Paycheck Protection Program meant for smaller companies, we have a problem. We can make some tweets. Tweaks. Do the likes of shake shack, does not get access to funds of Small Businesses . Followed the not shake shack story. Apparently, there is some issues there. They may be able to seek financing through federal loan facilities. There will always be tweaks. We are trying to do this as expeditiously as we can. The whole point is and we have talked about it we just want to stabilize, put enough cash and liquidity into the economy to get us through the next couple of weeks. That is the whole purpose of this. Small businesses and those who work for Small Businesses, the unemployment numbers are very bad although there is some evidence they might be slightly less bad, but it is a bad hardship situation. If we can get through the next couple of weeks and the administrations Health Scientists have given the governors a good roadmap for reopening in several stages, then may may be a transition month for a much better economy moving out into the summer where hopefully the contraction will give way to economic growth. We are trying to set the stage for that and keep folks going with the direct treasury checks and the deferral of the payroll tax and Student Loans and income taxes and on and on. In a short period of time, i think the operating agency has done a good job. Jonathan lets move on to tariffs and trade. The latest announcement will be deferring payment of tariffs on some good. Can you give some clarity on what the purposes . Some action overnight, what have you done, why are you doing it . Socalled most favored nations where there are hardships, we will suspend tariffs for a few months, three months. We are not rolling back 301s or or other trade deals, but the customs duties, the excise tax you pay, the customs duties will be lifted if there are hardship cases. In particular, there was concern relatedtailers and supply chains getting into the United States. It is significant action. We want to help folks. It is not an enormous action does not change the president s trade policies, but we are suspending and deferring as we have with things like income taxes and payroll taxes and elsewhere in our recovery plan. Ferro in our jonathan conversation with larry kudlow. Coming up, we look at derivative strategy. We will be in conversation with greg poodle of bmp greg boutle of bnp paribas. That is coming up shortly. This is bloomberg. Viviana bloomberg surveillance, kyle i am Viviana Hurtado bloomberg surveillance, i am Viviana Hurtado. Jennifer morgan is abruptly leaving at the end of the month. She was appointed to the Top Executive role along with Christian Klein but the coronavirus causing problems with the leadership struck chair structure. Quarter in the first sales plunging. This year, the European Market will shrink by one quarter. In march, psa closing its european factories and has not said when they will reopen. Primear buyers with sub credit loans are being put on hold. They have seen a sharp dropoff in payments. To get through the coronavirus pandemic, borrowers are shifting their priorities. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Feel, real risk off correlated. Substantial curve flattening with 40 basis points down to 37 basis points, a big move in curve flattening. The headline item is brent crude joins west texas intermediate in a sharply lower price, brent crude down 16 with about a 21 handle. Synthesizes all of this for bnp paribas with a focus on equity markets and the derivative aspects of them. Facts in the market . Is volume so small and in disarray that you cannot foresee a bet in the market or can you see Market Action . No doubtre is liquidity across Capital Markets is somewhat challenged. That is a function of the macro conditions we are in and the operational conditions with diminished teams or work from home type capacity. Liquidity across Capital Markets has taken a hit in the past two months. Tom what do you see among equities in oil . We have talked about highyield bonds and the bankruptcies to come. Give us a step work sector statement for what you see in Equity Investment in oil. Greg one of the things that was interesting yesterday was we saw u. S. Oil names only down a little more than the broader euro equity market. One thing we observed about euro equities as they are not normally correlated to the wti contract that was annihilated yesterday. They are better correlated to their mediumterm maturities. Those maturities came under pressure but nothing like the front month contract, so they are looking at the mediumterm prospects for oil and those were not quite as bleak yesterday as they were. Francine going back to your point on liquidity, we had a couple of issues. Are we over the worst . Is the plumbing working ok in the Financial Markets . Actionhe domestic policy from the fed and administration has done something to help the risk sentiment in markets and that in terms in turn helps liquidity. Whenever we see an aggressive spike in the vix, liquidity tends to get worse. The fact that volatility in the market is lower than it was and has peaked in march is something that will help liquidity. There is no surprise that what happened yesterday in crude happenedto put prior to the expiring of the front month contract. Will be betterty as volatility columns calms. For equities, there is a challenge in time ahead. We think the Liquidity Position could improve as volatility remains somewhat more contained. Overall, do we have solvency issues or do use the a lot of equities have solved . Solvency issues . When do they come to the forefront . Greg in a situation where you have absolute lock down of economies, you will have stocks that come into issues whether that is liquidity or Balance Sheets. I dont think for the Broader Market we are there yet, and one thing that will drive liquidity issues is the length of the lockdown we remain in. On howare focused quickly the economy reopens. On do you have a strategy the fancy stocks, the six or seven stocks that are going up, whether faang or nonfaang, do you have a strategy for these high flyers . Greg our strategy in general is that we have a preference for quality and those stocks that have already outperformed. We did a lot of analysis of what happens when you hit the turning point in a crisis like this and you get some mean reversion. Stocks tend to perform worse on the way out so if the stock market bottoms and we have a rally, we expect those stocks to outperform. We will see new lows in the market intentionally in the summer months so while the Broader Market is under pressure , people will be looking for safe haven and idiosyncratic stories that give broader protection from the risk off environment. With bnp boutle paribas today, the markets taking it on the chin good 40 points, 30 points on s p futures. An exceptionally timely conversation after the president s conversations last night on our immigrant, our immigrant doctors and nurses, michelle patch of Johns Hopkins university. This is bloomberg. Welcome back. This is bloomberg surveillance. We continue to track the virus. Bloomberg has developed a unique partner and partnership on the covid19. Hopkins, and every day we bring you an expert. We are thrilled to be joined by michelle patch, school of nursing assistant professor. We are focusing on the emotions of this all. How much more difficult all this be if we do not see will this be if we do not see a significant slowdown in cases, difficult for the nurses, the front liners, and everyone at home . Michelle that is a great question. Nurses,entioned, our physicians, all of our Health Care Workers are working aroundtheclock right now to try and fight against this virus. What we have seen after other disasters like for instance theicanes or tornadoes, or tragedies we all experienced there are fairly predictable phases we go through collectively. It starts with the impact of the disaster when it first hits, we experience fear and confusion. Difficulty believing it is even happening, and we make extraordinary efforts to protect ourselves and our families. Then we move into what we see as this hero it phase where we have a great heroic phase where we have a great deal of activity and we are all ramping up to help. It moves quickly into what is called by many as this honeymoon phase, we are bonding back assistance,disaster we are optimistic we are going to get through this, get back to normal quick. Unfortunately, that does not last long and we tend to move realizeillusionment, the limitations of our disaster assist, and we have been working assistance, and we have been working so hard physically and mentally, and negative stressors start to come out. Startsat demand for help stripping out our resources, we feel lost, abandoned, angry, and that can take months to years before moving into a reconstruction or recovery phase. Francine what is the number one advice to bolster each other and for people on the front lines in this difficult time . Michelle right now, we are somewhere between a honeymoon and disillusionment, kind of moving back and forth. Many are maintaining an optimistic stance and communities working together, providing whatever they can to fight this virus. We are also seeing increasing conflict and those who want to open back up to businesses. We have those that are tired and angry and worried. They worry they do not have what they have to safely continue, and they are physically and mentally exhausted. This is very much a marathon. Requiresg each other actively caring for ourselves and each other, continuing to advocate for increasing supplies and testing. Now. Ok to not be ok right continue to reach out to others from a safe distance. Take advantage of our Electronic Devices to connect and watch out for our friends and families. Advisors andtual therapists. Ands ok to breathe and cry go forward. Tom the president overnight put out an executive order limiting or abandoning immigration in the United States. He talks about the stress of the virus, the invisible threat. And 23 of nurses are immigrants. How do those nurses become nurses in the United States . Do they show up and they are hired or is there licensing . How does that process work at Johns Hopkins university . Time at for some memorial, we have relied heavily on a wonderful workforce that comes from everywhere across the globe. As we have individuals come to practicedy who have nursing in other countries and want to continue to do that in the United States, each state has a different board of nursing that provides licensure for those individuals. They will have to take a licensure exam to show they have that background, and there are also opportunities at colleges and universities in the event that they may be lacking something that was needed for that licensure, that they can take that. There are many programs that encourage folks to come from other countries and help support them in that transition. To haverrisome limitations at this point when we so desperately need folks on the front line, to turn away those who have those skills and resources. Tom michelle patch with Johns Hopkins University School of nursing, greatly appreciate your attendance today. ,here is much more to speak of our washington audience looking at the pending legislation on the hill and the president , a presumed executive order today. Francine and i looking at the collapse critically, not just in american oil but brent crude down to a 21 level. That is critical, well below the recent 23 low. We continue to study the worldwide effects of this great endemic. From london pandemic. From london and new york, this is bloomberg. Awesome internet. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] alix oils historic crash. Front month prices trade negative. What it means for companies, traders and investors. We speak to an allstar lineup. In the mystery of kim jongun. The north korean Leaders Health in question, as one leader says his health took a turn for the worse after cardiovascular surgery. On low prices weigh shortterm inflation expectations. Banks putting pressure on everyone. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this tuesday, april 21. Im alix steel. I feel like there are so many prices for oil i need to show you. For the time being, i want to focus on brent. The story yesterday was that it was just wti. The question is, if it is spreading into brent down the
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