The close even though it had been there intraday. Beenrange chart we have looking at for months, weeks, it is starting to turn bullish. The range between roughly 2600 and 2800, all back to the since the rally stalled, we have been stuck 3000. To between 2300 and note the higher lows. Theof them put in just over next few weeks or so. The rising moving average tells you that the trend is up. The longterm bulls are supporting the market. Making alike it is break to the upside. Should this work, we could see the s p 500 climbed toward maybe even 3200. Again, this chart is starting to turn bullish, maybe suggesting that the earnings season will remain positive. For me continue to be on the chipmakers. You have seen some relative outperformance recently. Closing up about 2. 2 percent. A lot of Underlying Companies driving this. An 11 monthng high. Other Companies Like intel, which have exposure to apple, keep pushing it higher after we hear about strong iphone 11 demand. If you take a look at the chart here, measuring the out performance of the stocks relative to the s p 500. To are getting very similar levels we saw in april. Otherwise, these go back about 18 years to the dotcom bubble to get this kind of outperformance relative to the s p 500. As long as trade talks continue to go relatively well, some of this outperformance is likely to continue. Renita bloom and brands sunk as low as 7 on the intraday. This is on lackluster casual the thirdta during quarter of the year. Right now, the average price target is 21 per share. Our analyst brian mullen cut his comparable sales estimates. If those come in below the consensus, he said bloominmay have to lower the forecast. They may have to lower results further toward the end of the month. Brands, bloomin apparently Outback Steakhouse and flemings. Joe have you not had a bloomin onion . Missing out. Caroline call to arms. Dont berate me for not having that onion yet. I am going to take it back to the data, i suppose. We heard from sarah just how much this does not seem to be worrying too many people if we get some sort of trade deal in place. Althoughnot bad, Global Growth, it depends to be defined as a global recession. It is rare save for Something Like the financial crisis where you see Global Growth in the aggregate go into negative territory. The question is whether we are bouncing around the bottom now or if this is on the way down. Two, we haveear or seen a reversal where the u. S. Has typically been a leader in the Economic Cycle compared to where we are in the rest of the world. This tends to spike in difficult times like 20072009. We have seen a drop in correlation suggesting that the rest of the world has been leading the u. S. In terms of manufacturing. Growth marks a potential Inflection Point and we can find a lift from there with a lag, that would potentially bode well for the United States economy. Joe why are we talking about why arent we talking about the version of the curve . Seems to be a big deal. Liz ann people only care about things when they are bad, right . We have seen a steep uninversion or a steepening of the 10 year curve. This is really on the back of the increase we have seen on the 10 year, 1. 75 . Now people are talking about 2 potentially on the 10 year. Inflectionprovide an point. The idea, if you get to 2 , people might want to buy bonds at that point in time. It truly is that people are not so concerned about the uninversion of the yield curve. You hear more about it on the way down then on the way up. Bond yieldsat what are beginning to tell you, may be the bond market is not as worried about Global Growth research Global Growth concerns. Yielding were only 1. 5 the other day. This is a huge opportunity. Scarlet what do you think about the uninversion of the yield curve, does it signal a completely different way of looking at the Global Economy right now . That you look at the one is most relevant to the stock market historically, it had not been the case that it has been extended for an extended period of time. It was anymore sustained inversion until last week. Many people uninversion view the many people view the uninversion as an all clear sign. If you look at the last recessions where we had the , in someve inverted cases, you still had a window in terms of the number of months. I would not automatically say that because it is on inverted that we are clear sailing. More often than not, that means you are getting close to if this had been a very shortlived inversion like 1998, then i think it is very likely that the uninversion suggests an all clear. Caroline what is everyone asking you . Liz ann it is interesting. Have, thesations i theme of questions i get these days is about the deaf about the debt and deficit. It doesnt seem either side of washington seems to care much investors,but our that is something they want to talk about. Scarlet democrats never did and republicans, it is interesting that they now seem to care about they now dont seem to care about this. That is it for the closing bell. Romaine bostick will be stepping in next for whatd you miss . This is bloomberg. Caroline we are live from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york. Heres a snapshot of a risk on day. U. S. Stocks rallied to the close. Joe the question is, whatd you miss . Caroline gains on wall street after investors pushback push past Global Growth concerns. Why was it goldman who felt the pinch from big bets on uber . On the brink of a brexit breakthrough. Sterling falls as europe and the u. K. Fall move toward a draft deal ahead of the deadline. Romaine mgm, the casino company, looking to become a landless casino company. They are in talks with Blackstone Group to sell the bellagio resort. It will basically be a leaseback arrangement so they will continue to operate it. They also agreed to sell the circus property on the strip for about 800 when he 5 million. 825 million. Joe shares of jp morgan climbing to a high today. A crowded start to bank earnings. Wells fargo taking one more legal hit before its new ceo arrives. Senali. O bring in we have four banks. Model, it about the jpm their allocation to different divisions, that is clicking right now . Ofjp morgan at the benefit leaning on the consumer all year. Nonconsumer businesses, investment banker businesses faring much better then you have seen at other places. Investment banking in particular. They held up pretty strong when goldman, who should have been the leader, did not really surprise the market with any good news. Caroline in fact, bad news. We braced the fact that some of the public and private investments had not going great at goldman. Sonali we knew there would be a loss. Cooper was obviously publicly failing in the last quarter or so. I dosk at want to shine some light on it but going into next year, it will be a bigger deal. Romaine credit cards will be the bright spot. Why the initial reaction at citigroup. I am just curious as to why they seem to be the odd man out. Every bank is a different story. For citigroup, it is the cost cutting they were not able to keep in line. They are really holding steady, kind of strong but not too shocking. You are not able to cut costs to show you can do it at the same time. With jp morgan, saying we will try to keep costs in line but deliver on more than 18 return on tangible common equity while also spending whatever we want to stay competitive. Thanks. Some breaking news regarding hong kong and the u. S. Response. The u. S. House of representatives has passed a bill aimed at supporting the hong kong protests. The u. S. House is democratically controlled. They have passed a bill basically supporting the hong kong protests. This is the most formal support of those protests by the u. S. Government so far. We will continue talking about the earnings picture and the banks, specifically wells fargo. We want to bring in the cfo of wells fargo, john shrewsberry, and san francisco. Well get down to the earnings in a second. This is i guess the last quarter we will have before the new ceo comes in. I am wondering, if you look long term and the outlook for wells fargo and you put that against the backdrop of what happened in the most recent quarter, are you looking more toward i guess an acceleration in some of those numbers that kind of disappointed investors this quarter . The numbers as they turn out in any quarter reflect the accounting realities of the quarter. I think there are things that speak to the future and what charlie will be stepping into as the new ceo of wells fargo. Loan and deposit growth, both good signs, and loan growth came from a variety of places, i would say more on the consumer side. Talking more about what is happening in consumer spending. Ore broadly stepping into a company that has a brisk mortgage deduction business. We are a big originator for sale. Both the pipeline and the gain highs. Are at relative a different context, he knows he is stepping into that. We are set up to compete to do very well. Those of the advantages of the company he is stepping to the helm. 1. 6 billion dollars legal charge this quarter. Obviously, this has happened multiple times in the last few years. How far along are you on the cost side and cleaning that up you . Utting it behind john quite far. We report every quarter in our legal expensese we could incur. We will be filing that in a few weeks and it will have the latest assessments. My observation is that the charge that we took in the quarter which relates to items that have been percolating the last couple of years really does begin to move that through. Caroline talk a little bit about net interest income. You already lowered expectations. Environment isn it as we had seemingly into a period of easing rather than tightening when it comes to the federal reserve. The story starts with what advantages deposit heavy banks had on the way up. A variety of us had very low cost deposit bases. Assets priced up, the fed moved fund moved fed funds up, libor priced up. Deposit costs dont priced down as quickly. That as you roll forward over the next several quarters, that we will get the same kind of recovery in costsaving on the deposit side. We had given guidance this year, to 2018. 9 compared this morning on the call we talked about what next year looks like. I think, based on the performance of our stock today, was a little bit better than some folks might have imagined now that the fed has begun to move at the front end. People words affecting that. Were expecting that. At this so far, it looks manageable. It is a cost, it is a headwind, no doubt, but it seems to be priced in. Romaine when you look at the mortgage side, we did see some pretty good numbers with regards to mortgages. We have seen some data out from the Mortgage Bankers association and of showing some imbalance between the growth the industry will see in mortgage origination, what they will see in refinancing. How is wells fargo balancing that . We had about 58 billion dollars of mortgage production during the quarter. Less than half was purchased related. Some of the refinancings work refinancing of mortgages held on other banks books compared to ours. Are our owncings customers. Like a lot of loan asset classes, the advantage to the customer is a yield assets perspective. Of our mortgage production, we are selling either into ginnie mae securities or fannie and freddie securities. Those have been expanding over the last quarter because these higher volumes are really completely consuming capacity in the industry and pricing reflects that. It is a better time to be in that business. Some on the balance sheet, some sold through, and lower rates are absolutely stimulating both refi activity and affordability activity on the purchase side. Caroline those lower rates will keep the mortgage area growth. It was great to have you with us. We thank you. Lets bring you some more earnings numbers. Raising theirs is full year 2019 adjusted earnings per share. They now see fullyear adjusted earningspershare, 11 tony 11. 25 to to 12. 25. They are seeing Fourth Quarter capacity around a 3 increase in operating revenue came in just shy of estimates. Up to. 75 . Coming up, closing in on a deal, are we . Possibleremains that a brexit breakthrough could come by the end of the day. This is bloomberg. Onaine some breaking news all of the opioid lawsuits in the u. S. Dow jones reporting that distributors are in talks to settle the opioid suits for 18 billion. Dow jones also reporting that Johnson Johnson is also apparently part of this, to contribute an undisclosed amount. It seems to center primarily around the drug distributors. Caroline lets talk about what is happening across the pond. The great dish pound out performed the Great British pound outperformed all of its g10 peers. Regulators seem to be closing in on a deal. Breakthrough by the end of the day. Midnight, shmidnight. Amazingly enough, it seems this game of chicken is working. I think the key thing that Boris Johnson has been prepared to do is say, yes, there will be a Customs Border through the eye receipt, which has been the through the irish sea, which has been the dirty secret no one has wanted to say. That is the only way, allowing that to happen. Judging by some of the talk we are getting, or some of the quotes for the record we have heard from the dup, the democratic unionist party, which has the biggest block of mps in Northern Ireland itself, it seems to be a question of how much money. To makeructural grants this possible may be enough somehow or another to get them to bite. Entire point, the the entire reason that party existed was preserving the union, but they can be bought off by money . It has been known to happen before. Romaine can you explain frequent flyer miles . Joe principles . They certainly have a lot of principles. They were against, way back in 1975, the first referendum, one of the first british parties eu. Came out against the but, Northern Ireland is one of the poorest parts of the u. K. There is a lot to be done to make that region of the country better by assuaging the rest of there is a way if you were a democratic unionist itician, to romaine up about 6 , 7 overall. John over the last week, if you look at deutschess index on a tradeweighted basis, this is about the best five days in a decade. This is fantastic. Joe our thanks to john authers of bloomberg opinion. I still cant believe some people change their values due to money. Coming up, we talk about the imf cutting Global Growth forecast. Mark President Trumps personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani has told lawmakers that he will not comply with a subpoena issued in the impeachment inquiry. A letter sent by giulianis attorney calls the subpoena overbroad and unduly burdensome. Democrats had a wednesday giuliani to provide documents. Text messages and witness testimony have revealed his role in a back channel effort to get ukraine to investigate a gas company linked to the family of joe biden. Vice president pence is headed to turkey. President trump says pence will head there tomorrow to try to reach a ceasefire deal. Pence will lead a delegation to whichra that to ankara will include the secretary of state and National Security advisor. They will be meeting with turkish leader erdogan. President trumps comments came during a meeting celebrating the st. Louis blues. Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon repeated her call for another referendum on independence next year and says she will demand the u. K. Give her the power to hold one. Addressing her Party Conference in aberdeen, she says her party completedgh will have preparations in months. Sturgeon called Boris Johnsons brexit plan a disaster. She also criticized President Trump and said he and johnson have similar styles. Like borisn leaders johnson and donald trump have in common, this, that nothing should be able to stand in the way of their own selfinterest. Not facts or evidence, not the rule of law, not democracy, in some cases not even basic human rights. Friends, we oppose the politics of johnson and trump. Sturgeon added to that johnson and trump use what she calls crude populism to trample on the rights of minorities. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Romaine the trade tensions between the worlds two largest economies pushing the imf to make the cut to the Global Growth forecast, now what would be a gay low of 3 . The imf chief economy ba decade low of 3 . The imf chief economist weighed in. It is important this is a durable solution because the negative impact of these come these are coming through if we dont think there is a durable solution, these effects will continue to have very weak manufacturing and weak trade, and we need to stop that. Romaine lets welcome bloomberg correspondent,ia visiting us in new york from hong kong. I think we all sort of knew that the imf would cut their forecast. Everyone said for months that it was way too optimistic. Is that still too optimistic . I think there is a sense that they might hes still behind the curve. A synchronized global downturn, downgraded the big blocks in europe, china, the u. S. It is hard to get away from the trade story. They are worried it is really these trade tensions or uncertainty. So hard toond order, quantify. Joe i dont mean to ask a cynical question but i mean it genuinely. How should we view the usefulness of the imf forecast . I dont think it is a surprise to anyone that concerns have en, trade is a source of what is the best way to incorporate it into our understanding of the economy and markets . The entire leadership of the World Economy will be in washington this week. One of the lines that the chief. Conomist used today to dore driving the need something about it. Romaine how much influence does the imf have on all these leaders . If you dont, they probably have less influence. There is no doubt that National Reports depend on what locals tell them. If you cant access the public markets, you have to go to the imf. Caroline what do we think about the public pressure from christine lagarde, fiscal stimulus. Call foroing to be the the next few days . I think they are saying, there will need to be a coordinated response. When the g20 came together and rolled out that coordinated response, we are not there yet but, at the very least, the government has to think about it. Central banks are not exhausted but they are fairly stretched. Bloombergsank, enda curran. The trade war is one of the key things that james buller honed in on with Francine Lacqua and tom keene. Obviously, we cant do anything directly about trade but we do have our mandates to maintain high employment and low inflation. We are trying to do the best we can to take on board what is going on with the trade war and other risks with the global and u. S. Economy and conduct a Monetary Policy that will help us meet our objectives as best we can. Frankly, we certainly have a great labor market but the inflation side has been somewhat weak. We have been below target. Inflation expectations remain below target. I would like to recenter inflation and Inflation Expectations back at our 2 target. What is your read on Global Growth and trade negotiations . We are seeing is daytoday titfortat, a normal part of any situation, that is what the game theory tells you is going to happen. We cant as policymakers be reacting daytoday because that would create more uncertainty around trade and Monetary Policy. I think what we can do is take on board the idea that the 50, 75 year consensus about the u. S. Pushing toward more or more trade liberalization has broken down and we have more trade uncertainty and businesses will have to take that uncertainty on board. They will have to devise Business Strategies that cope with the high degree of uncertainty that exists within this arena. I know you dont want to talk too much about the next meeting but according to the minutes from the last meeting, the fomc is discussing when it could end the Interest Rate cut. Does that mean we should be looking for a change in language that after this meeting the bar is higher for extra cuts . Would leave that to the chair. That is what he gets paid the big bucks to do. We will see where the Committee Comes down on that. We obviously do use language changes and have in the past. Bloombergrg radio and television, a conversation with jim bullard. Ugly chart. Dakota hudson does not have a dot on here. He will be starting for st. Louis tonight . Are we going to move on from the dot . James i am not really a fan of this dot plot but we are stuck with it, i guess. We are trying to give the best forecast we can. I dont think the dot plot probably reflects the true degree of uncertainty that exists. Is that we dorio this insurance now but that the economy grows pretty well and labor markets continue to be maybe 2021. 20 and we are may be able to take those rate cuts back in the future. If i am putting out my base scenario, i hope that is what happens. On the other hand, i want to lower now because i think we want to take out insurance against these risks and the idea that the trade war might morph into something more serious for the u. S. Economy. Caroline st. Louis fed president james bullard. Them interesting news coming from twitter. They seem to be setting some rules around enforcement scenarios when it comes to World Leaders. They want to make clear that the accounts of World Leaders are not above policies entirely. For example, the promotion of terrorism, clear and direct threats of violence against an individual, when it comes to posting private information such as home addresses or phone numbers, information related to child sexual exploitation, all of that means that World Leaders would be struck off the platform. This is bloomberg. Joe bitcoin ended the day down over 2 , although i guess it doesnt really end, continuing a trend of a week two months for the cryptocurrency. But it is not necessarily hampering investor demand. Grayscale investments, the largest crypto asset manager with more than 2 billion in assets under management, posting a and or third quarter, a company saying it posted a record, tripling the asset raise from the second quarter. Joining us with more, michael, the managing director at grayscale. Most ofseeing finally your clients are institutional, people are piling into bitcoin and other related vehicles. Translated into what many people would sort of automatically assume that, as the institutional money accelerates, that prices would be more robust . Michael i think we are seeing a solidification around digital currency. Our Institutional Investors, which now make up about 84 of the assets we raise over the last quarter, we are looking they are looking for uncorrelated alpha. If they are a, endowment, pension plan, the typical models they have invested in, they need to justify those with other kinds of returns that can help them achieve the target goals. Investors are looking to bitcoin and other Digital Stores of value as we shift away from the physical world into what is a more physical world. Caroline who you class as into as Institutional Investors . Michael anything from hedge funds, global macro funds have a registered investment advisors, pensions and endowments, it really runs the entire gamut. I would say the only type of institution we dont yet have as an investor would probably be a sovereign. Romaine on that chart, retirement accounts on a trailing 12 month basis, about 10 . What types of folks are you seeing . Question just because i think of bitcoin as more of a shortterm investment. Michael how interesting. Romaine i am not the smartest guy in the world. Michael our investors have a medium to longterm time horizon. At grayscale, we have this family of 10 unique investment products, all access products. If you want to gain exposure to ethereum,ry on, and other asset, the legal and operational framework fits along with what those investors do. If you are an individual investor and you dont want to figure out buying directly, these options are available now. Joe i think i follow the crypto space pretty closely and i have never heard of this currency called zen. I dont think it has performed particularly well. The point aside, when you make this case about scarcity, telling people to drop gold, does it undermine that case that there is a scarcity, that there is an unlimited number of new products and currencies that you anycreate any old fund for time . Michael we are pretty disciplined. There is a dell limit there is a delicate balance. There is our team doing a deep dive, looking at different assets, saying, is there an opportunity . I think that dovetails with the drop gold campaign. The idea, it is a wakeup call for the investment community. Is gold still a store of value for the world we live in . When you look at the attributes around bitcoin, a lot of these other scarce assets, this is a narrative that is starting to resonate with the investors. Caroline how much of a help or hindrance are u. S. Regulators and lawmakers when we hear rumors, reports, that they are. He ones lobbying issuing a cant be grant, setting up counterparties. How difficult is it . I would not characterize it as difficult. I would say that it is only adding increased valuation. If you look at libra and how much focus there is in d. C. Around this, if you look at what lawmakers are doing to do a deep dive and understand the difference between libra and other protocols like bitcoin, the legacy institutions, fidelity or even a tech giant like facebook getting into the space, that is causing the conversations now. That is immensely helpful to the asset class as a whole. Romaine i saw the irs for the next tax season will specifically have a question about your cryptocurrency assets and reporting of that, and state regulators trying to change the definition of money so they can get a better handle on who is out there and who is either reporting or not reporting. Cryptot bitcoin but in as a whole. Michael we have had now irs technce for the last 4, 5 seasons. How they are supposed to be reporting on crypto assets. While there is new guidance out, it should not cause people to shy away from the asset class. Romaine our thanks to michael sonnenshein, managing director at grayscale. Caroline david marcus will be joining Bloomberg Technology, an exclusive interview with facebooks head of libra. A also have reporting on turkish state ru bank charged by federalrosecurs in w rk. We h beenearinghat aine was incredibly likelfor sanctions on iran but now we get the proof in the pudding, charged in six counts of indictments with money laundering. It is charged in a scheme to evade irani and sanctions. This is bloomberg. Hong kong chief executive carrie lam is set to unveil the new policy tomorrow. Continued action by u. S. Lawmakers. We just had this breaking headline about 45 minutes ago that the u. S. House has passed a bill aimed at supporting protesters. Hery this is the hong kong human rights and democracy act. We have known for some time this was coming. This is quite symbolic. This doesnt necessarily remove special trading status. It does show support from congress for these protesters. Beijing has come out and said this would grossly interfere in chinas internal affairs. Still, congress has been very supportive. We have seen republican senators visiting hong kong, meeting with prodemocracy protesters. Romaine i thought it was interesting because this is the first time we have heard from the government in a more formal capacity in regards to which side they are on or which side they think they want to be on. We know a lot of companies and Company Executives have already gotten in trouble. There was a word now that Activision Blizzard, which was supposed to have an event today in new york, they have also halted that because of backlash from some of their gamers to the support that one of their gamers reportedly voiced for hong kong. Shery it is a very complicated situation for businesses. Businesses tell this want to do . If you cave to beijings pressure, you get the backlash like Activision Blizzard has had. They were supposed to have this event at Rockefeller Center with nintendo, with their new game. They have canceled the event. Others, you have other businesses that are caving to pressure. We have seen the cv the ceo of Cathay Pacific resign. We have seen many brands apologize for naming hong kong or taiwan as a separate country. Official formal support coming from the u. S. Side. We have seen President Trump say though that president xi jinping should meet with the protesters. Joe President Trumps position is interesting. He has praised xi jinping, congratulated them on the 70th anniversary of the party, while at the same time attacking the nba for kowtowing to beijing. The focus right now is how this could play out. What happens if you bring hong kong to the table in trade negotiations and say, there is so much pressure over here, and keep playing this up. Own problemss its with the president now facing that impeachment inquiry in the house. It could go either way. Caroline as you said, it is complicated. Shery, absolutely amazing. Think you for bringing that all to us. She will continue to make clarity of it all on daybreak ,stralia, and daybreak asi starting at 6 00 eastern time. Joe i will be watching tonights democratic debate. 12 president ial hopefuls on one stage in ohio, starting at 8 00 p. M. Eastern. Romaine more Economic Data out of the u. S. Retail sales, housing, the federal reserve. Caroline that is all from whatd you miss . Romaine Bloomberg Technology coming up next in the u. S. Joe this is bloomberg. Taylor i am taylor riggs in san francisco. This is Bloomberg Technology. We works cash crunch. Investment bankers exploring options for the coworking company. Some whisper we work in earnings calls and not in a good way. Plus, what were apples Vice President and the former ceo