Transcripts For BBCNEWS Path to the Presidency 20240914

� repair shop� presenter, Jay Blades whos been charged with engaging in controlLing and coercive behaviour against his estranged wife. And the i newspapers lead analyses the surge in private Health Care saying record numbers of people are turning away from the national health service. Hello there. It was an unseasonably chilly start to Friday Morning with A Touch Of Frost for some, but lots of blue Sky And Sunshine throughout the day and we started to draw in that warmer feeLing air. Now that trend is just set to continue over the next few days. So warmer by day, milder by night, too. For the weekend some sunshine, but also some outbreaks of rain here and there, too. You can see all of the sunshine clearly with the lack of cloud on the Lite-picture'>SatelLite Picture here. We will see this frontjust gradually continue to push its way further eastwards through the rest of the night, bringing outbreaks of Rain Across Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. More cloud here, too, and some of The Cloud will seep down into northern england. Its windy out towards the north west, but look at much of england and wales dry with clear skies again. And while its not quite as cold as it was last night here, Temperatures Rurally could still drop, perhaps as low as 3 orLi c. And then on saturday, well were set to keep a lot of that sunshine across england and wales through the day. It will stay dry here, more cloud towards the north and probably some more in the way of high cloud through the afternoon turning the sunshine hazy. Meanwhile, across northern ireland, Western Scotland well see outbreaks of Rain Push eastwards. Taking their time to reach eastern Scotland Dry here for much of the day. Windy across the border, fresh south westerly wind. Highs of 16 to 19 c, so already feeLing warmer. And then on sunday, our front continues to sLip southwards and eastwards across from northern england, down through wales, the midlands and eventually into south east england, but there will be some sunshine ahead of our front. It will stay dry during the dayLight hours, 20 degrees so warm and sunshine developing behind the front, too, with some showers scattered across northern and Western Scotland. So heres our area of High Pressure thats going to keep us largely dry and settled into next week. Its gradually pushing further eastwards over the next few days, but on monday we could start off the day with those Lighter winds, with some areas of Mist And Fog that could take a Little time, perhaps to Lift and clear through the morning. But they will do so and therell be some sunshine emerging and temperatures will be higher. So were looking at 15 to 21 c, perhaps north to south. And those temperatures could rise even further low to Mid 20s potentially, especially in the south as we head through the middle of next week. Lots more sunshine to come. Now on bbc news. A new behind the scenes look at the us Election Campaign Path to the presidency with sumi somaskanda, Caitriona Perry and katty kay. Ive talked to three undecided voters. You found the three yeah they might be the three who decide the election. Ok, so somebody� s in a very noisy place. Thats me. Somebody� s in a quiet Library. Im in london. We are really spread out at the moment. Um, ithink. Sumi, how are you . Are you in, Like, a Nightclub Or Something . I wish i were. I wish but if i were in a nightclub at, i dont know, midday on a thursday. Id be. I would be impressed. Yeah, i would be impressed with myself as well. No, im in a lovely cafe in Downtown Doylestown in pennsylvania, in bucks county, pennsylvania. I dont know if youve been to doylestown. It is beautiful. YoU Should definitely come here. Caitriona, youre in a Library or a fake Library . Im in a fake Library. Yeah. No, its not. I mean, full disclosure, any Library yoU See on television these days is fake. Lets be honest. I dont think theres a Librarian on the planet that would let me speak this loudly if i were in a Library, but i am in the Library-corner'>Library Corner of the bbc washington bureau, so i have nipped into the Library-corner'>Library Corner to have this chat with you guys, because it is very busy in this bbc bureau. Weve had a lot of reinforcements come into town for the debate this week. Of course, its been another crazy busy week and a crazy busy month and a crazy busy year, but im deLighted that us three are going to find the time every week to just get together and have a chat about what weve noticed from the campaigns, whats impacting voters ahead, of course, of the three of us being together in studio on the big night, election Results Night in november, and a few days have passed since that big debate now, i think people have had a chance to come up for Air And Kind of think about what happened, moving away from the sort of dizzy enthusiasm that we saw in the Spin Room that night. YoU Know, it was a night of claims and counterclaims, studying of body language, stories about eating cats, Cat Lady endorsements. But ive been really wondering and trying to investigate how much this impacts voters and how much attention people actually pay to it. I mean, we hearfrom abc. Thats the big question. Isnt it . I mean, we hear from abc news, Lion'>61 MilLion people tuned in to watch this, about Lion'>10 MilLion more than watched Trump And Biden injune. But what we got was kind of same old, same old Donald Trump, and we got Kamala Harris trying to shift the focus onto him. So all those polls we saw in advance that people wanted to hear from her, learn more about her and what she stood for, she was very successful, i think, in deflecting the attention onto him. I mean, she laid those traps that he walked into, talking about his crowd size, his vote size, the size of his wealth, and so on. But she didnt answer some of the key questions that people had. The first question she got on the night being potentially the most important, when she was asked, did she think the american people were better off now or were better off four years ago, which is the question that Donald Trump and all the repubLicans keep hammering heron. And she didnt actually give an answer for that. She didnt have an answer prepared for that. She didnt give too many specifics either. Now, maybe the strategy was to try and keep the focus on Donald Trump. And i was speaking to a high level democratic strategist about this, and he had a really interesting takeaway, which was that he felt at the end of that debate, they had succeeded in making Donald Trump look Like an old person who wasnt in command of their thoughts, who was rambLing and easily distracted. He certainly looked Like an old cross person. Which were, yoU Know, the old was the thing that people were saying Aboutjoe Biden and that they were kind of, they were happy that they had shifted that onto Donald Trump that night, and that they were very happy with how the whole thing went. But i dont know. I mean, we wont know for another week or so if its had any shift on the polls. But nothing has shifted Donald Trumps performance for about a year. Hes been coming in, yoU Know, between 48 and 50 , no matter what has happened to him, including that assassination attempt. So i dont know. Do you guys think, will this make any difference . Well, ill tell you that ive been speaking to some voters here in bucks county, pennsylvania, where i am, specifically about the debate, because i was curious, yoU Know, how did this actually go down with voters . So its just anecdotal, what i can tell you from here. But really interesting that every person that ive spoken to here about the debates, is that they all say that they were disappointed by the performance of both candidates onstage because they feel Like Licy-issues'>PoLicy Issues were not actually addressed. They feel Like. One man described it to me Like two kids playing in a Sandbox Orfighting in a sandbox, and that they werent actually focused on answering the questions that matter to people. And specifically, weve been talking a lot to Small Business owners, and theyre so frustrated about inflation, rising costs, and they feel Like neither candidate has actually presented a plan and explained how they would implement that plan to bring down some of these costs. So again, this is anecdotal here, but, yoU Know, interesting to note that. Several times, she mentioned specifically Small Businesses. She did. Yeah. That was Like, to the extent that she mentioned an economic plan and she didnt really talk about what that plan would be. But she made a point of talking about Small Business owners. And the 50,000 grant that she was going to give to Small Business owners. But its interesting, when you mention housing to me, because that was something that struck me at the debate she said, i have a housing poLicy. Full stop, move on. There was no detail on what is the housing poLicy, and that is something that everyone in this country is concerned about, whether its access to housing, whether its rent, whether its mortgages, whatever form it is, it really matters to people. They need a roof over their heads. And thats the kind of thing that voters vote on, isnt it, when they go into the polls . I think that, yoU Know, its. I mean, after the kind of, sort of giddy euphoria of the night, of democrats being so happy that Kamala Harris had not performed badly, which i think everyone can agree. She didnt perform badly. She probably exceeded expectations. Certainly, she exceeded the Performance Ofjoe Biden back in june. Um, im struck by how many messages ive got from kind of democratic strategists and how many conversations ive had, yoU Know, i spoke to david plouffe, who ran barack obamas 2008 campaign. I spoke tojim messina, who ran barack obamas successful 2012 campaign this week. And several democrats have come. Just in the last even 2a hours, im looking at a text that ive just got from somebody this afternoon saying, same swing states, same undecided voters, same lack of clarity. Theres been this kind of sLight chill has set in now. Maybe democrats are very nervous about being too exuberant and they see the polls, but it is striking, the degree to which people are asking the questions. Im assuming, to the extent that, yoU Know, youve been talking to voters, i think theres a reaLisation that she gave a good performance. But will that. I mean, some people are saying these Set Pieces dont make any difference when it comes to the polls. Will that actually change any minds . And i think that seems to be the key question. It sounds Like youre both hearing the same thing that ive been hearing that, yes, it was a good performance, but was it enough to persuade people that she had the poLicies to bring down the price of goods . I had a few repubLicans say to me as well, very privately, they were prepared to admit that it wasnt a great night for Donald Trump, which, of course, is not what theyre all saying pubLicly. But they said to that exact point, it doesnt matter, because he was classic trump. YoU Know, he deLivered that Maga Megamix of classic hit Lines about how the democrats, the Biden Harris Campaign have destroyed the economy, how the borders are being flooded by immigrants, how other countries are emptying their prisons and theirjails and their asylum institutions, and all of this stuff that Donald Trump says at every rally, of which there is absolutely zero evidence of that happening, we have to say. But he deLivered all of those Lines. So if youre a Donald Trump supporter and youre watching that, or even if youre not, thats what youre expecting to hear from him. Yeah, definitely. And just in the Spin Room, yoU Know, we were at the debate in philadelphia and talked to a bunch of lawmakers and surrogates and members of the campaign teams. And of course, its a Spin Room, so you have both sides claiming that they won the debate, of course. But i thought it was so interesting. Including Donald Trump. Including Donald Trump, who was just actually two booths down at fox news. And so we could barely hear or do anything because of the massive scrum that gathered around him, which is usually the case. But, yoU Know, it was so interesting that you heard some of the surrogates for Donald Trump, Like Congressman Byron donalds from florida, who came down to sit with us and talk to us right after the debate, who said, Listen, we very clearly are ahead on these issues, on the economy, on crime, On Immigration. And yet when he was making those points, he was able to prosecute that case better than Donald Trump did during the debate itself. And Kamala Harriss surrogates and some of the lawmakers we spoke to, Like Veronica Escobar of texas, a congresswoman, she was saying, look, yoU Know, we know that voters might not know what Kamala Harriss plan is On Immigration yet, but we do beLieve that voters will trust us, because they see this performance and they see that shes in command. Again, yoU Know, well have to see whether it actually has any sort of impact. But interesting to see that the Harris Team on the ground and her supporters as well really were taking so much away from being confident, at least that night, the first night, right after the debate had concluded, by the fact that she had performed better than expected, to your point, caitriona. So i had a very interesting conversation. I mentioned david plouffe, who was the kind of guru of barack 0bamas 2008 campaign in the way that kind of Alan Greenspan was called the oracle of the economy when he was chairman of the federal reserve. David plouffe was kind of heralded as this person who can perform miracles when it comes to democratic poLitics. And certainly, 2008 was a very successful democratic campaign. And i asked him this question that weve been posing about whether it makes any difference and if so, specifically, which groups of the electorate he felt might have been targeted by this debate performance. And i thought it was interesting the way he kind of broke it down to me in three separate groups of people. And now, he is a Senior Adviser to Kamala Harris and hes working on her campaign, so this comes from that perspective. But the way theyre kind of Micro Targeting is kind of worth perhaps framing it. And one is that he felt that there are a lot of voters who want to learn more about her, who dont know much about her voters of all different ages, and he thinks thats somewhere between Li and 8 of the voting population, and he felt that they will have got confidence from her performance on the Debate Stage because she looked Like she belonged there, was how he phrased it. She, yoU Know, she looked this phrase she looked Like a commander in chief. She looked confident. She kind of owned the stage. She didnt look Like she was apologising for being there. She didnt look nervous. Maybe at the beginning, id say the first 5 to 10 minutes, she did look a bit nervous, but he felt that they would have been reassured. So thats one group. Another group, the second group that he spoke about, were people who arent sure whether theyre going to vote at all, and who he felt would have been energised by that debate performance. And i suppose that speaks to the fact that 60 milLion people tuned into it, which is, yoU Know, it is a sizeable chunk of the american electorate, and that they will have seen a high Energy Performance from her and that that might motivate them, if theyve been sitting on the fence, to feel this is something worth going to the polls for. And then the third group of people that they were trying to target, the people who were leaning towards Donald Trump but dont Like his character. And im sure youve both heard this out on the campaign trail. Ive heard it a lot. People who say, well, i dont really Like the things he represents, i dont Like the way he talks about women, i dont Like some of the kind of antics, i dont Like his twitterfeed, but i Like his poLicies. And he felt that some of those people may have been a Little demoraLised by what they saw onstage, by Donald Trumps performance, by the fact that he came across, as yoU Said earLier, as kind of old, which was a strategy of the Harris Campaign, was to use that word, old. It was Like a Drinking Game after a bit, yoU Know, every time she said old story, you could take another shot. And the other thing i think thats interesting that ive heard from the Harris Campaign is that they are super conscious that this is an election thats going to be won on the margins. So even if in each of those three different groups of people, which i think are probably broadly what have been known, rather dismissively, i think sometimes, as low information voters, or people who make up their mind late, you only need to peel away a few of them, right . You only need to peel away A Thousand or two, potentially in the swing states, yoU Know, 5,000 in georgia or 5,000 in arizona, and you can start having an impact on the outcome of the race. I just thought it was an interesting. From someone whos such a Master Strategist in terms of they went into this debate with very clear people they wanted to reach, and that was how they felt they were going to reach them. Yeah, i think its quite clever of them in a way, because those people youve described, those sort of low propensity voters, they do tend to vote. Much nicer than low information. Yeah. They do tend to vote for Donald Trump. And theyre really hard to capture in polls because theyre not engaged in sort of the daily day poLitical cut and thrust, as we. Many of them are kind of, yoU Know, women who have kids and are getting them to school and they have jobs. They have a Life. Super busy. They have a Life to do. They have shift working to do. They have all of that family stuff. But they do tend to vote for Donald Trump. So it shows just how concerned they are about those marginal voters that theyre trying to target those people at this remove. And i think the other point thats worth noting is were about to start mail in balloting, right . Alabama has already sent out its postal votes. They have to go out to all the states within the next 10 or 11 days. So there are people, thats going to be, yoU Know, an issue. They can cast their vote now, seal the envelope and get it off and they dont need to worry about, are they going to have to get the earLier bus on Election Day to get to their ballot centre, or will they have to swap shifts with somebody else and all of that . I mean, thats the other really interesting conversation i had this week is, i met deborah mattinson, who is a british pollster who was advising Keir Starmer in his very successful election this summer on how to win back voters, specifically in the north of england, who had drifted towards the Conservative Party and to get them back into the labour fold, and its the kind of, in britain its known as the red wall, in america we would call it the blue wall. And she has been doing a string of Focus Groups and advising, helping the Harris Campaign with this issue of how to recapture voters they feel, working, basically Working Class voters in the blue wall. And the key thing that she said to me, and i spoke to her before the debate and after the debate, and before the debate, she said, the main thing for all of these voters is, the single biggest thing is affordabiLity and the second biggest thing is immigration, and that she described in her Focus Group people who have been going around Grocery Stores. Actually, this was in georgia, not in one of the blue wall states. But shes been looking at the other battlegrounds and she says, yoU Know, theyll go round the Grocery Store and theyll put stuff into their Basket And Theyll tally it all up on their phone, and theyll get to the Checkout And Theyll have to remove some of it. YoU Know, i cant afford that Orange Juice this week, so that goes back. And she said its for those voters that are really hard to reach that democrats feel that they want to try and reach. But afterwards, after the debate, she was very clear that she still felt, to what youve both been saying and what youve been hearing, sumi, in bucks county, that the plan, even though Kamala Harris mentioned the middle class a lot and mentioned Small Businesses a lot and described the 25,000 shes thinking of as a Housing Kind of grant to help people buy theirfirst house, people just she felt that there was not a clear enough, crisp enough, strong enough plan to deal specifically with this issue of prices. And i asked her, well, of all the poLicies that Kamala Harris has mentioned so far, has there been any poLicy that shes mentioned that has resonated with the people youve seen in your Focus Group . And she said the only one thats really got traction is the promise to do something about Price Gouging in supermarkets. So, to try and stop supermarkets inflating, unfairly, their prices. But thats the one poLicy that Kamala Harris has mentioned that got actually quite a lot of pushback, even from democratic economists. I mean, its not something that people particularly Like it. They say it could actually hurt competition, thats not the way the american economy is meant to work, it doesnt sound very free market. So its interesting that in the Focus Groups, because she just said people are so focused on the price of goods in particular, and that she, harris, is going to have to come up with something clean and crisp. And one thing that i thought was interesting is that if you think about harris, shes never been known for economic poLicy. Her background is as a prosecutor, and shes kind of law and justice, and now more recently, abortion and peoples rights. But if you think of Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders is so associated with medicare for all, eLizabeth warren associated with corporate profits and corporate power. I mean, even Donald Trump to some extent associated with immigration and kind of the working. And thats just not what Kamala Harris has been passionate about during her career. But mattinson� S Point was that this was something she really has to work on. And i think thats why were seeing Donald Trump and the repubLicans really trying to skewer Kamala Harris on economic matters time and again, because, as yoU Say, thats not something shes known for, and shes trying to distance herself from the biden administration. But as Donald Trump and all of his Spin Doctors keep saying, its the biden harris administration, its notjust the biden administration. But for me, travelLing around this country over the last few months, ive been to six of the seven Battleground States so far, its the number one issue for people. Even when they say economy, they actually mean cost of Living. They mean how. AffordabiLity. We all know from Living here, its impossible to go to the Grocery Store and spend less than 50. Like, even if you just go in for milk, bread and a couple of apples, youve almost no change out of 50 and youre walking away going, what do i have to show for this . A friend of mine was back home in ireland recently and sent me a message showing me the boot or the trunkload of groceries that she had bought in an irish supermarket for the same cost of a basket of stuff here. And so its a real thing. And, yes, wages are rising, but theyre not rising in track with the price of things in shops. And thats what people are really feeLing in their pockets. YoU Know, what ive been looking at this week, no surprise pennsylvania, since im here in bucks county. And there were two things about it that i was really thinking about, yoU Know, coming out to bucks county, its one of these Collar Counties, so outside of philadelphia, were about an hours drive outside of philadelphia. And youve really seen the growth of these Collar Counties as people have moved further out from the suburbs into the areas further and further outside of the big city, and that means that, of course, the demographics and the poLitics also change a Little bit as well. We talked to a staunch Trump Supporter yesterday who said, i dont Like that all these Liberals keep moving out here and changing the poLitics out here. And i think thats a sentiment that weve seen among some of the more repubLican leaning voters weve been speaking to. But the other aspect actually tees up to something that caitriona mentioned a Little bit earLier, which is housing. YoU Know, its the groceries, the gas prices, but every single Person Weve spoken to has complained about the price of rent or the inabiLity to buy a home. And if you think about, yoU Know, The American Dream is often so based on that concept of buying your own home, isnt it . And because of that, yoU Know, the people weve been talking to say they feel Like they cant fulfil their potential, they cant fulfil their own dreams because they cant build a house, or they cant buy a house, or they remain renting and they see their rents go up by 600, 700. And, yoU Know, it made me think about the fact that in 2017, i was travelLing around germany at the time and talking to people about election issues before that countrys election, and we assumed that the biggest issue on peoples minds was going to be immigration. It was just after the massive Immigration Crisis in 2015, where you had about a milLion people entering germany. It was affordable housing in small towns, in big cities, that was the point we kept hearing. And its so fascinating to see that this is still a big issue here in small towns, where i am, in doylestown, but also, of course, in big cities Like philadelphia. And i wanted to look, i was just looking at the Washington Post and have some numbers here next to me. Since 2019, Home Prices have risen 54 . If you add that to the high Interest Rates and then the low inventory, you can really see the pressure that that adds on housing. And of course, you have the poLicies that are being introduced, so Kamala Harris saying Shell Build 3 milLion new homes and then give Down Payment assistance, up to 25,000 to first time home buyers. Donald trump talking about reLieving some of those regulatory pressures on building housing. But all of that is not actually going to help the fact that you need new inventory quickly. And all of that takes time. So i really wonder if any of these measures will make a difference. I dont know, what do you think, katty . I mean, its interesting because, yoU Know, youve you heard the same thing in the uk, right . Pressures on housing and what a problem, and what a big deal that was in the uk General Election this summer. Its interesting that you heard, yoU Know, there are similar things in other places in europe. And you can see how then that ties into immigration, and we are seeing some of that play out kind of onLine and with some of the Trump Campaign, particularly from some of his surrogates and people standing up saying, well, there wouldnt be such high Housing Costs if it werent for immigrants moving into our area. Thats an argument that ive been hearing from people around the Trump Campaign. Now, that doesnt always necessarily correlate, its not always that simple, but you can see how its easy from the Point Of View of the Trump Campaign to kind of weave i dont know if we use that word any more anyway, weave an argument together that is, yoU Know, that You Tie in the economy, as trump has done kind of masterfully in the past, touching kind of hot Button Kind of cultural and social issues and peoples fears by saying either theyre taking Yourjobs Away or potentially, yoU Know, theyre driving up the price of housing as well. And one thing im watching for, as we come out of this Debate Week and throwing it forwards, is how much the Harris Campaign now feels they want to get her out, not just at ralLies, but, yoU Know, talking as much as possible to the media, talking in town halls, yoU Know, doing the reps, i mean, Like, yoU Know, practising bicep curls, but i mean, getting her out as much as possible to hone this specific economic message. And whether they feel that that would. I know that Theyve Kind of resisted that up until the moment of the debate, but i think they will feel not just pressure from the press, from All Of Us and from the Trump Campaign, as clearly there is pressure from the Trump Campaign around this, and kind of goading her into doing that, but also whether they think that theyre going to need to do that if, yoU Know, the debate alone hasnt totally sold the case. That she hasnt made, yoU Know, the sale with some of those key demographic groups yet. Do you think that some people, also in a state Like pennsylvania, might just not vote . Because until now, i havent found anyone who said they wont Vote Theyjust Havent decided yet how they would vote. I think that was a real risk earLier in the year, wasnt it . I think so much has happened that people do feel a bit more energised. Thats what ive. The sense ive had anyway. I often wonder, when people come up with a microphone, and ive had this many times going around kind of Battleground States, and everybody always tells me theyre going to vote, and ijust wonder, occasionally im a Little bit sceptical and i think there is a difference between telLing a journaList who is asking you, are you going to vote . And your kind of sense of Civic Duty kicks in and yoU Say, yes, of course im going to vote, ijust havent decided who to vote for, and actually kind of doing the paperwork and getting to the ballot box. Because clearly, we know american elections dont have massive turnout. So there are a lot of the electorate who choose not to go out and vote. So well see what the actual turnout is going to be in november. Always a good number to watch. And a long road from here to there even if its only a matter of weeks, plenty can happen, as we know, and we will be back here each week, talking about what weve seen and heard through the week. But well leave it there for today. And chat soon, sumi and katty. See yoU Soon. Live from washington, this is bbc news. Uk Prime Minister visits the White House with support for ukraine topping his agenda. After russian strikes killed 11 civiLians in key areas of northern ukraine. Plus thousands of employees are on strike and another setback for the Aerospace Giant with major financial losses. Talks between U K Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U S President Joe Biden have finished, with the war in ukraine at the top of the agenda. Speaking outside the White House to reporters, Sir Keir gave no indication on whether the U S and U K would allow ukraine to use long range missiles to hit targets inside russias borders, the question at the heart of fridays meeting. Western countries in particular the U S have so far been relucant to remove restrictions on the use of these weapons, amid fears of retaLiation from moscow. 0ur poLitical editor Chris Mason recaps the visit. The urgency of the situation and ukraine. I want to thank you