Transcripts For BBCNEWS Sportsday 20240704

This is bbc news. A new chapter in the economic History Of The Uk the promise we will hear shortly from Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Should Labourfor Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, should labour for the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Should Labourfor the next should labour for the next government. Should labourfor the next government. Rachel reeves addressing business and finance leaders in the city of london. We are expecting her speech to start very shortly and we will of course be keeping across the and bring it to you as soon as possible she appears. She is delivering the annual Mais Lecture Following in the footsteps of previous chancellors and Shadow Chancellors and bank governors. Rachel reeves will promise to reform the treasury as part of a possible labour governments Economic Policy. She will say, i remain an optimist about our ability to rise to the challenges we face. The conservatives suggested labour had no plan just more borrowing and more taxes. The speech comes after ms reeves said labour would not be able to turn things around straightaway if voted in. But we are expecting the Shadow Chancellor to confirm new details about labours approach to controls on borrowing, the setting of Interest Rates by the Bank Of England and how it would return the economy to long term growth. We are expecting her to appear any moment. We heard earlierfrom the head of the uk Business Lobby the confederation of british industrys rain newton smith. She was asked what shes hoping to hear. I think what businesses want to hear from any chancellor is a long term vision and strategy for how we deliver Economic Growth in the uk. We know that our challenges are growth over the last couple of years has been lacklustre and in terms of Living Standards, we just havent seen the growth and productivity that we need to see. And what is the answer to that . Its absolutely how business works with government to ensure we have a Business Investment going across all sectors and regions in our economy. Any plans that are set out do need to be set within a sustainable fiscal framework. So thats almost the bedrock that businesses need to see. And then one of the things that we know we need to see is more investment in our transition to a Green Economy. And to really unlock that, what we have been calling for, many of our members have talked about having a net zero investment plan. So we set out across different sectors whats the overall amount of investment we need to decarbonise our economy and what are the innovative ways in which we cant necessarily outspend some of the incentives that say the us economy is providing to incentivise the Green Economy . But we can set out, we can outsmart them by setting up regulations and ways in which we can unlock private sector investment. And thats one of the things that businesses want to see from whoevers in charge. And we also need to think about how we invest in our people and how we allow Lifelong Learning and think about a flexible way to deliver the skills we need, whether thats thinking about how we adopt ai across different sectors, or whether thats thinking about how we develop the skills we need to change our economy to a low carbon economy. We are seeing the introduction to Rachel Reeves who was about to speak there. We will of course, bring you that as soon as she appears. So just to update that Rachel Reeves is about to speak to the business and finance leaders as part of the annual mais lecture lecture. She is expect to sate labour will seek to bring about a new chapter in the history of the economy in the uk. Also promising to reform the treasury as part as possible to labour your government policy. Mais lecture is an annual event hosted since 1978. Numerous high Profile Chancellors of the exchequer, governments of the Bank Of England governors, have spoken during the mais lecture lecture. In 2021 was emilys who became the first woman to speak in the mais lecture. But in that time, george osborne, gordon brown and chancellor rishi sunak also have spoken. Now it is Rachel Reevess turned. She has been in the Shadow Chancellor of the exchequer since 2021. We will bring you now the introduction to Rachel Reeves and listen to what she has to say at mais lecture in london. Mais lecture in london. Which has its roots in mais lecture in london. Which has its roots in one mais lecture in london. Which has its roots in one of mais lecture in london. Which has its roots in one of the mais lecture in london. Which has its roots in one of the worlds its roots in one of the worlds oldest its roots in one of the worlds oldest medical schools and also home to the oldest medical schools and also home to the second oldest rugby team in the world to the second oldest rugby team in the world. Will become citizen georgias the world. Will become citizen georgias world of london creating a powerful georgias world of london creating a Powerful Multi Faculty institution which Powerful Multi Faculty institution which we Powerful Multi Faculty institution which we focused on Business Practice which we focused on Business Practice and professions in london and beyond. Here at mais lecture we are looking and beyond. Here at mais lecture we are looking forward to harnessing the insights from the Business Sector the insights from the Business Sector and other tech with some of the major sector and other tech with some of the major challenges the sector is facing the major challenges the sector is facing today. Mais lecture tonight is part facing today. Mais lecture tonight is part of facing today. Mais lecture tonight is part of a facing today. Mais lecture tonight is part of a key calendar date. Rachei is part of a key calendar date. Rachel reeves that shot of chancellor of the exchequer who we are expecting to use hear from. Shadow chancellor since 2021. She is also mp4 leads wes and importantly, she also works as an economist at the Bank Of England. It was last year that she was seeking inspiration from the joe year that she was seeking inspiration from Thejoe Biden Plan to tackle inflation and create jobs in the us. She dubbed her strategy, secure economics which she said which would mean a bigger role for the government and running the Free Market Economy with greater cooperation with like minded international allies. In 2021, she pledged to rebuild the Uk Industrial Foundations if labour wins power. However, as we have heard, the government chief secretary, laura, said that labour are offering no plan, just more borrowing and more taxes. Also in response, from the confederation of british industry, louise, speaking early ascent, with a potential cocktail of squeeze on public finances and a bit and for still had we accreting the right Operating Environment forforms still had we accreting the right Operating Environment for forms to generate ideas injobs that opportunity for the uk to strive will be the defining challenge for whoever forms the government. There were also some questions about whether Rachel Reeves will talk about the Green Economy which of course we have heard a lot about recently in terms of the labour plans to withdraw funding. The cbi, louise is continued saying, the Child Chancellors right that the route to strongest growth is unlocking Business Investment and unlocking Business Investment and unlocking sustainable vision to the uk economy in the long term and a plan to realise it delivered the collaboration between business and government. We will of course have analysis from our Economics Editor short lease to discuss what Rachel Reeves has to say and we can join now to Hearjust Reeves has to say and we can join now to hear just what she has to say. Applause thank you very much. It is a privilege to be here at Mais Business School this evening to look back over past mais lectures which is what i like to do with my evenings, it is notjust to survey the thoughts of key figures in British Economic policymaking over four and a half decades, it is to trace the shifting concerts in conventional economic thought. To grasp how crises have forced its reevaluation, to appreciate how the challenges confronting policymakers have changed over time and how in important respects, they have stayed the same. When the governor of the Bank Of England Gordon Richardson delivered the very first mais lecture in february 1978, describing an historicaljuncture when the conventional methods of Economic Policy are being tested, he spoke in the context of a britain legs with high inflation, rising unemployment, dysfunctional industrial relations and recurrent balance of payment crises. A britain wrecked by a perpetual crisis and decline. What i want to argue today is as in the 19705, we are in a moment of flux. In which old certainties about Economic Management have been found wanting. The economic mainstream has adapted, but a new political consensus is yet to cohere. Once again, we have found ourselves in a moment of political turbulence and a recurrent crisis with the burden falling on the shoulders of Working People. With at its roots, a failure to deliver the supply side reform needed to equip to britain to compete in the fast changing world. I suggest that the arts today is an economic approach which recognises how our world has changed. Building growth on strong and secure foundations. With active government, guided by three pillars. First, guaranteeing stability, second, stimulating investment through partnership with business. Third, reform. To unlock the contribution of Working People and the Untapped Potential throughout our economy. The challenges we face now are perhaps even more acute than those which were described half a century ago. The central challenge is our growth performance. Last month, the office for National Statistics confirmed that the uk entered recession at the end of last year. This is just the latest chapter in a longer story of economic decline. Since 2010, the Gdp Performance of the the uk has hovered in the bottom third of 38 ocd economies. To put it in perspective, if the uk economy had grown at the oecd average this last decade, our economy would be £140 billion larger today. That is £5,000 for every family in this country. And it will contribute an additional £50 billion in terms of tax revenues. What we are facing todayis tax revenues. What we are facing today is a decline of material different sort to that which has occupied policymakers in the past. In the 19605 and the 19705, governments grappled with a question of productivity and investment and how the uk would pay its way in the world. In the context of economic convergence. In which british decline was relative. A result not of the british failure, but the success of other Western European economies. Today, as the historian suggested, we are at a moment of deep convergence trailing in falling behind our competitors. This is had serious consequences for Living Standards with the real household Disposable Income Set to be lower at the end of this parliament than they were at the beginning. Today, the average british family is 10 worse off than their french counterparts. And a full 20 worse off than our german counterparts. At root, productivity remains the key medium term determent of wages. It is the collapse in our Productivity Growth which explains wage stagnation. What is demanded is the fundamental Course Correction. The stakes have really been higher. A leap for the Living Standards for Working People, not only for the competitiveness of britain in a fast changing world, but both are at stake. It also for the health for the health of our democracy. As robinson understood when she wrote 60 years ago, economics is notjust about quantitative models and abstract theory. It is about values. Rooted in political philosophical and moral questions about human nature and the good society. Robinsons thinking powers powerful echoes today. In the car warning that Economic Policymaking has become detached from values broader of competition and efficiency even while competitive and efficient needs to let efficiency deteriorate. As the australian treasurer calls for a values based capitalism, the political economist who came to britain from austria as fascism grows in the 19305 wrote of a tendency of Market Economies to become dis from their societies, to undermine the conditions for growth and provoke powerful counter movements of both left and right. These insights remain press enter. Because when mainstream politics cannot offer the options for our document, when swedes of our country feel written out of our national story, when hope for the future is allowed to wither and decline of a self fulfilling prophecy, then we know the result. We see it all across the world. The rise of populists who offer good answers, but recriminations. My Argument Todayis but recriminations. My argument today is this. A new model of Economic Management is needed. Because a model based on the pursuit of narrow based, narrowly shared growth, with ever diminishing returns, cannot produce adequate returns, cannot produce adequate returns in the growth and Living Standards. And or, can it command democratic consents. I want to make this argument in three parts. First, to place, the contours of an alternative approach, one that builds growth on strong and secure foundations. The only viable strategy for growth in the world of today will stop third, to set out the pillars there is no single cause for our present plight. Jonathan haskell has demonstrated how our Productivity Slowdown in the 20105 was driven by a slowdown in total factor productivity. When we compare ourselves to our faster growing competitors, it is clear that we have been underperforming across all the factors of growth. The investment with the britain alone among the g 7 investment with the britain alone among the 6 7 in having Investment Levels below 20 of gdp. Low levels of basic skills, gaps in technical and Vocational Education and comparatively poor management capability. Vast disparities with all of englands biggest cities outside of london having Productivity Levels below the national average. Particularly, since the pandemic, is significant weakness in Labour Supply with 700,000 more people economically inactive due to ill health. We have an accumulation of problems. First, there are long standing weaknesses which generations of politicians have struggled to address. It is not enough simply to point out these feelings. We must confront their underlying institutional, cultural and political causes. Second, there are the products of political and policy choices made over the last 40 years. And of the instability that has accompanied them. Like the Stop Goat Cycle of capital investment, the new british disease in which short term instability inhibits investment and drives up Infrastructure Costs resulting in fewer and smaller new capital projects. And a rush to an ill conceived brexit deal that has brought further disruption with a Resolution Foundation estimating that new Trade Barriers are equivalent to a 13 and 21 increase in tariffs in our manufacturing and Service Sectors respectively. The obr finding that long run gdp is expected to be 4 lower as a result of the governments brexit deal. Third, those structural vulnerabilities and that political instability have been exposed and exacerbated by our move from the great moderation into the age of insecurity. Marked, first by stalling growth, stagnant Living Standards and political turbulence. Increasingly, by global shocks. Escalating geopolitical tensions and the challenges of Climate Change and the challenges of Climate Change and the net zero transition. Let me put these in some perspective. In 1984, nigel lawsons mais lecture offered one of the clearest expositions of economic thought which underlay which he called the british experiment. His central contention was that the proper roles of a macro and micro Economic Policy were at the postwar accepted wisdom. That the postwar accepted wisdom. That the primary role of macro Economic Policy, was not, as it had once been, the maintenance of full employment, but the control of inflation. Responsibility for growth and employment then, in the formulation of lawson, was the responsibility of micro Economic Policy. The reality is, lawson failed to follow the logic of his own analysis stoking an inflationary boom at the end of the decade. Lets boom at the end of the decade. Lets Ust Leave Boom at the end of the decade. Lets just leave that boom at the end of the decade. Lets just leave that for boom at the end of the decade. Lets just leave that for a boom at the end of the decade. Lets just leave that for a moment. Rachel reeves speaking to business and finance leaders in london. Shadow chancellor speaking there. Lets get some analysis of what we have heard from her so far. Faisal islam is our Economics Editor. And he suppresses and what you have heard so far . Hat and he suppresses and what you have heard so far . Heard so far . Not really. This is the longest heard so far . Not really. This is the longest exposition heard so far . Not really. This is the longest exposition of heard so far . Not really. This is the longest exposition of the i the longest exposition of the economic agenda of the labour party. Possibly economic agenda of the labour party. Possibly ih economic agenda of the labour party. Possibly in government after the next general election, if polls are to he next general election, if polls are to be believed. But it is not a detailed to be believed. But it is not a detailed of policy, it is not an alternative budget statement. We have new alternative budget statement. We have new announcements on some of the institutional structure in which economic the institutional structure in which Economic Policy, increasing the importance of Climate Change objectives, of growth. At the Bank Of England, the treasury and the forecaster, the office for budget responsibility. That is about, the plumbing responsibility. That is about, the plumbing of how Economic Policy is done plumbing of how Economic Policy is done of plumbing of how Economic Policy is done. Of the general message, that you get done. Of the general message, that you get from that speech, is that rachel you get from that speech, is that Rachel Reeves thinks if labour is to win the next election, they are going win the next election, they are going to win the next election, they are going to inherit a dire set of economic going to inherit a dire set of economic circumstances and you get the sense economic circumstances and you get the sense of playing down the expectations as to what can be done. She says expectations as to what can be done. She says there needs to be a fundamental Course Correction in the economy fundamental Course Correction in the economy. She complains about a stopgo economy. She complains about a Stop Go Cycle in terms of investment in big Stop Go Cycle in terms of investment in big projects in the uk. At the same in big projects in the uk. At the same time, she says she has to be restricted same time, she says she has to be restricted irr same time, she says she has to be restricted in terms of what she cant restricted in terms of what she cant do restricted in terms of what she cant do in restricted in terms of what she cant do in terms of spending on those cant do in terms of spending on those areas. The same actual rules in terms those areas. The same actual rules in terms of those areas. The same actual rules in terms of giving the National Debt found in terms of giving the National Debt found that in terms of giving the National Debt found that the current government have to found that the current government have to adhere to. See how have what appears have to adhere to. See how have what appears to have to adhere to. See how have what appears to be a bit of a paradox. The explanation from her is that, in the place the explanation from her is that, in the place of the explanation from her is that, in the place of a big bazooka of government investment, you get a big bank in government investment, you get a big bank in the government investment, you get a big bank in the planning system. The rules bank in the planning system. The rules and bank in the planning system. The rules and regulations around building rules and regulations around building houses, big energy projects, pylons across the country, and if projects, pylons across the country, and if she projects, pylons across the country, and if she enables an environment where and if she enables an environment where that and if she enables an environment where that thrives, were all of these where that thrives, were all of these projects can be built. Hundreds of billions of pounds of private hundreds of billions of pounds of private investment could be brought in and private investment could be brought in and that private investment could be brought in and that could take the place of public in and that could take the place of public investment. Some have criticised public investment. Some have criticised this asjoe public investment. Some have criticised this as joe biden economics, without the cash and this is her economics, without the cash and this is her attempt to answer that, but it is not is her attempt to answer that, but it is not an is her attempt to answer that, but it is not an alternative budget. As it is not an alternative budget. We have it is not an alternative budget. Is we have said, she speaking to business and finance leaders in this mais lecture, but do you think the speech could potentially change the view of voters . I speech could potentially change the view of voters . View of voters . I think that first audience is view of voters . I think that first audience is quite view of voters . I think that first audience is quite important. View of voters . I think that first i audience is quite important. When you have audience is quite important. When you have the strategy of trying to et you have the strategy of trying to get the you have the strategy of trying to get the private sector to do the investment, you dontjust have to do a charm investment, you dontjust have to do a charm offensive, you have to et do a charm offensive, you have to get them do a charm offensive, you have to get them to do a charm offensive, you have to get them to believe. To believe that there get them to believe. To believe that there will get them to believe. To believe that there will be a general election, but will there will be a general election, but will not skip a beat in terms of the economy, carry on investing in watei, the economy, carry on investing in water, Energy Infrastructure and do not worry water, Energy Infrastructure and do not worry about a general election. That is not worry about a general election. That is the not worry about a general election. That is the sort of certainty she is trying that is the sort of certainty she is trying to that is the sort of certainty she is trying to offer. I see she is about to go trying to offer. I see she is about to go on trying to offer. I see she is about to go on to talk about what she calls to go on to talk about what she calls the to go on to talk about what she calls the chaos of british politics over the calls the chaos of british politics over the past four or five years. Multiple over the past four or five years. Multiple chancellors, multiple Prime Ministers multiple chancellors, multiple Prime Ministers and i think that is almost like the ministers and i think that is almost like the calling card that she wants to communicate with that audience. They are to communicate with that audience. They are deeply important to her agenda they are deeply important to her agenda in they are deeply important to her agenda in the absence of a Big Pot Of Public agenda in the absence of a Big Pot Of Public money. But for voters, they of public money. But for voters, they may of public money. But for voters, they may be looking for more typical policies~ they may be looking for more typical policies. The labour party when boston policies. The labour party when Boston Office in 1997, had a pledge card Boston Office in1997, had a pledge card of Boston Office in 1997, had a pledge card of that. When i asked about an Interview Card of that. When i asked about an interview before, when asked about the councils, local authorities in the councils, local authorities in the uk, the councils, local authorities in the uk, suffering in terms of their spending the uk, suffering in terms of their spending on potholes and social services, spending on potholes and social services, she came back, as it will there services, she came back, as it will there he services, she came back, as it will there be extra money if people vote for you. There be extra money if people vote for you. Will there be extra money if people vote for you, will the tax going to open up for you, will the tax going to open up even for you, will the tax going to open up even a for you, will the tax going to open up even a little bit for these hard pressed up even a little bit for these hard pressed public services. She said, actually pressed public services. She said, actually my pressed public services. She said, actually my focus is on growth. It is all actually my focus is on growth. It is all on actually my focus is on growth. It is all on growth. Indeed, the country is all on growth. Indeed, the country faces and possible trade offs if we cannot get the uk to grow trade offs if we cannot get the uk to grow again. We are officially in recession to grow again. We are officially in recession. A mild recession, it should recession. A mild recession, it should he recession. A mild recession, it should be set, but it is the sluggish, no growth for a few years now and sluggish, no growth for a few years now and she has said everything she does will now and she has said everything she does will he now and she has said everything she does will be getting about the economy back to growth. One issue here is economy back to growth. One issue here is that economy back to growth. One issue here is that everyone says it is about here is that everyone says it is about growth whether it is the current about growth whether it is the current government or the right of the conservative buddy or the lib dems, the conservative buddy or the lib dems, they all want growth. She says she has dems, they all want growth. She says she has something more to offer in terms she has something more to offer in terms of she has something more to offer in terms of climate investment. That is her cell terms of climate investment. That is her cell in terms of climate investment. That is her cell. In this important lecture, a lecture her cell. In this important lecture, a lecture that is you would like to say since a lecture that is you would like to say since the trend lines for economic say since the trend lines for Economic Policy for a series of previous Economic Policy for a series of previous chancellors and she will hope previous chancellors and she will hope that previous chancellors and she will hope that audience listens and not ust hope that audience listens and not just listens, ask in terms of their investment just listens, ask in terms of their investment in tensions within the United Investment in tensions within the united kingdom. United kingdom. Briefly, we are showin united kingdom. Briefly, we are showing this united kingdom. Briefly, we are showing this lecture, united kingdom. Briefly, we are showing this lecture, but united kingdom. Briefly, we are showing this lecture, but some l united kingdom. Briefly, we are. Showing this lecture, but some of our viewers may be thinking, why is it so important . It is our viewers may be thinking, why is it so important . It so important . It is important because all it so important . It is important because all of it so important . It is important because all of the it so important . It is important because all of the decisions it so important . It is important i because all of the decisions made it so important . It is important because all of the decisions made on whether because all of the decisions made on whether taxes go up or down, whether public whether taxes go up or down, whether public spending was prioritised or the Health Service or schools or your the Health Service or schools or your local the Health Service or schools or your local councils, all of those decisions your local councils, all of those decisions act within a structure. That decisions act within a structure. That structure, she says, we have to renew that structure, she says, we have to renew that that structure, she says, we have to renew that structure, i believe in those renew that structure, i believe in those institutions, iwant renew that structure, i believe in those institutions, i want to change somef those institutions, i want to change some. But those institutions, i want to change some, but as her aides essay, i will not bring some, but as her aides essay, i will not bring them down. That is the accusation not bring them down. That is the Accusation Porting towards liz truss in the Accusation Porting towards liz truss in the infamous i should say, many budget in the infamous i should say, many budget and in the infamous i should say, many budget and the crisis that that caused budget and the crisis that that caused i budget and the crisis that that caused. I think she is saying stability caused. I think she is saying stability and contest but what is happening under this government politically and economically. And yes, politically and economically. And yes. We politically and economically. And yes, we are getting the detail and that is yes, we are getting the detail and that is possibly because theyre slave that is possibly because theyre slave few that is possibly because theyre slave few months left before we get an election and may be another budget an election and may be another budget event before then we are not getting budget event before then we are not getting detail. We budget event before then we are not getting detail. Not getting detail. We will have to leave it there not getting detail. We will have to leave it there for not getting detail. We will have to leave it there for now. Not getting detail. We will have to leave it there for now. We not getting detail. We will have to leave it there for now. We will. Not getting detail. We will have to i leave it there for now. We will hang now to mariam or time for the weather now. Hello there. Although South East England and east anglia kept a lot of cloud during tuesday, the rest of the uk actually the weather brightened up quite nicely, with some good spells of sunshine coming through for example, here in county durham. And it was mild, especially around lincolnshire. Temperatures widely here reached around 16 celsius. But the next Weather System is already showing on the satellite picture, with Cloud Thickening from the south west. And overnight tonight, were looking at rain moving in. Now the rain will be at its heaviest across Northern Ireland, northern england, wales, and probably the north midlands. Temperatures keeping up at around 9 11 celsius across england and wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland, around sixes and sevens. Wednesday, then, we start off with rain in Northern Ireland but the wettest weather looks likely to affect wales, northern england, and the midlands through the course of the day. Its not clear that well see rain as far north as Northern Scotland, so it might actually be a dry and bright day here, and a lot of cloud for east anglia, South East England could thicken up to give an odd patch of rain through the afternoon. But it will stay mild 15 16 celsiusin the warmest spots. North midlands northwards, the weather will be cooler temperatures around 10 11 at best. Now, that cooler slice of weather across the north isnt going to last long, because weve got this slab of milder air moving in behind this warm front for thursday. And that is going to be bringing some more rain, particularly to scotland. And its notjust wet weather, its also going to be windy with gusts across Northern Scotland reaching 50, perhaps 60mph. The rain trickles southwards into Northern Ireland through the afternoon but on thursday, across england and wales, cloud will probably thin and break to give some sunny spells. It will probably stay dry for wales, midlands, east anglia, and southern england. Highest temperatures up to 16 celsius, so pretty mild. But its all change again for friday a cold front pushes southwards, introducing much cooler and fresher air, with those north Westerly Winds following. So, weather wise, our cold fronts bring some cloud and rain to england and wales during friday. The rain could be slow to clear away from South East England. Behind that the sun comes out, but therell be loads of showers for scotland, Northern Ireland, and the north west of both england and wales. The showers for these areas heavy with some hail and thunder, and temperatures for the most part around about average, 9 12 celsius. It stays unsettled, then, through the weekend. Loads more showers to come, and, as well as that, therell be a chilly north westerly wind. Bye for now. Its 7pm in london. Live from london, this is this world today with maryam moshiri. Kensington palace confirms that footage taken over windsor over the weekend is in fact the princess of wales. A stark warning about the worsening humanitarian crisis in gaza from americas top diplomat, antony blinken, who calls on israel to prioritise providing for those in need. Also tonight the first person jailed for cyberflashing, after it becomes a new offence in england and wales. Also coming up on The World Today. The names bond, james bond but who will play me . We look at the runners and riders in the race to become the next 007. Welcome to The World Today an hour of International News from the bbc. In recent days, theres been growing concern and speculation over how catherine, the princess of wales, is following her abdominal surgery. 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