Transcripts For BBCNEWS Newsnight 20240701

places staying dry with a bit of sunshine. very high for the time of year. and that's bbc news at ten. newsnight is just getting under way on bbc two. on bbc one, it's time tojoin our under way on bbc two. colleagues for the news where you are — goodnight. a wave of mental health illness has hit the workforce — now the single biggest reason among the under—44s for not seeking work. it's now become an economic problem, but is this here to stay? on the day that the economy showed again its inability to grow, a key problem remains the size of the workforce. i'm in bed most of the day, because i'm in bed most of the day, because i have nothing to do, nothing to achieve. so, yes, iwould say i have nothing to do, nothing to achieve. so, yes, i would say the employment side is much better, if i was in it. we have an exclusive investigation from ben and talk to the experts. also tonight... the un children's boss who hasjust returned from gaza on the day rains turn palestinian tent cities into fields of mud. after newsnight revealed that british—trained afghan special forces now face deportation to the taliban regime, mps demanded answers today in the commons. and president biden could be confirmed as facing an impeachment inquiry. in the next few minutes, we'll speak to a republican senator leading the charge, who says there are questions over his son's business affairs. good evening. in october, the economy shrank a bit, part of a generally stagnant growth picture which is difficult to square with the heady promise from the pm of a growing economy. one of the key issues holding the economy back has been the shrinking workforce, caused disproportionately by workforce sickness, and this is especially the case with younger workers suffering from mental health illness. this is now the most common cause, according to a bbc health foundation investigation of young workers limiting their work. is this a new post—pandemic epidemic of ill health? or is it a greater propensity of young people to acknowledge mental ill health? either way it's affecting workers, businesses, the economy, and all of our health, and ben has been investigating. what have you found? let's start with those gdp figures you mention. they show the uk economy stagnant as —— at best over the last 18 months. it looks like we've basically had zero growth over the past 18 months, despite the prime minister's ambition to "grow the economy". one of the things the government wants to do to tackle that economic stagnation is to get more people back into the workforce to fill vacancies. for context, we had a big surge in working—age economic inactivity since the pandemic, around half a million more people of working age not looking for a job, and most of them are on benefits. a large proportion are citing ill health, and one of the biggest drivers of that ill health is worsening mental health. and what's particularly concerning is the rise in work—limiting mental health issues among younger people, those in their 20s and 30s. there is a debate, as a reference, about how real this is. is itjust that there is less stigma than they used to be, people are more willing to admit to it and talk about it? but what experts agree on is that it should be addressed and not only for the sake of the economy, but for the sake of the individuals themselves, especially young people. but obviously a key question is if the government's plan will be effective in this regard. that is what we have been investigating. you going to have lunch? no. no? i have borderline personality disorder, also known as emotionally unstable personality disorder, and i also have bipolar. and then my mental health just deteriorated... the government sees getting people like rosanna back to work as a national economic imperative. i can be very high and upbeat or very low and down, to the point of suicidal ideation. i am still not in the right place at the moment to work, and to expect me to work would be quite impossible to do. mentally, i'm not ready. i can't guarantee what i'm going to be like one minute to the next. ill health has been driving the rise in working age inactivity in recent years. since the pandemic, almost half a million more people of working age are giving long—term sickness as the reason for their inactivity. and poor mental health is a major driver of that rise in ill health. around 660,000 more working—age people are citing mental illness as a main or secondary health condition than in 2019, and 1.5 million more people are citing depression, nerves or anxiety. worse mental health is certainly pushing up working age benefit claims. 20 years ago, psychiatric claims involving mental health made up around a quarter of benefit recipients. now, the share is closer to half. and one of the most striking trends involves younger people. as recently as 2013, mental health conditions, shown in red, among 16—34—year—olds, were ranked lower than musculoskeletal ones as a cause of work limitations. but over the past decade, the share citing mental health as limiting their work capability has jumped from 1% to li%. mental ill health is now actually the most common cause of work—limiting conditions among those aged 44 and younger. but is the alarming recorded rise in poor mental health among younger people real, or more of a reflection of their increasing willingness and ability to recognise it relative to older generations? so there's been a massive cultural shift in what is acceptable to say about your inner experience and your mental health, so one possibility is that they're nowjust more willing to admit and talk about having mental health problems, which wouldn't be surprising, because we've had all these campaigns and initiatives telling us to talk about our mental health problems. one difficulty when you adopt this language or this framework for understanding yourself in terms of saying, you know, i have anxiety or i have mental health problems, is that potentially, the concern is that this can make people feel more vulnerable and actually less able to believe that they have agency to change their difficulties, so it can change the way people understand themselves if they think i have anxiety. it can change the way people behave. so people might say, i can't put my hand up in class or i can't do this presentation at work, because i have anxiety. employment experts argue that two elements of the government's recent back to work plan regarding mental health are broadly sensible. more funding for nhs talking therapies, and a scheme called individual placement and support, which works with local mental health services. but they worry that the emphasis on sanctions for those who don't take up job offers could be counter—productive, and they stress that individual employers must be involved in job design. digging into the data shows that education levels seem to be an important factor in this story. younger people born in the 1970s and �*80s with no qualifications are much more likely to report poor mental health than other age groups, around 20%. this compares with less than 10% of those born in the 1940s and �*50s. those with a degree at all ages are much less likely to report poor mental health. this suggests that differences in life opportunities and perhaps the higher income that can come from incapacity benefits relative to some low—paid jobs might be playing a role in work limiting playing a role in work—limiting mental health problems. the bad news is that if this is right, it's going to make tackling it even more complex. we know that having a meaningful daytime activity such as good work, and when i say good work, i mean work that is not only purposeful, that you feel you can master and that you are supported to undertake. we know that meaningful daytime activity is good for health generally. however, if you don't have a meaningful daytime activity, something purposeful to do, it's not so good for your health, and it's certainly not so good for your mental health. i would have days where ijust wouldn't go in, and i would just be stuck in bed all day. i've had very low, dark moments. idris malik, who is 32, is currently economically inactive and receiving benefits for his anxiety, depression and emotionally unstable personality disorder. but when he's in work in the retail sector, which he has been in recent years, his sickness benefits are reduced, and he receives more money overall, around £700 more a month. and he wants to return for other reasons too, beyond the financial ones. ithink, yes, it would be a better solution for me if i was in employment, because not being in it has detrimental effects, especially to my mental health, because it's caused me to be more depressed, and also, i'm in bed most of the day, because i've got, like, nothing to do, so nothing to achieve. 50, yes, the employment side, i would say, is much better, if i was in it. this is in line with surveys which suggest a large proportion of people in inactivity due to ill health like idris do want return to work at some point, provided they get the right support from employers. i have concerns about employers, because they're not always understanding once you're in the face of it. i don't want to be staying at home all the time. i would like to be working. it would mean that i don't have to be a stay—at—home mum all the time, and my kids have someone to look up to, a role model. can you see yourself in work in maybe five years' time? do you think that's a possibility, or do you think at the moment, it's just not realistic? not in five years. hopefully in about ten years, when i've gone through a lot more of my therapy, going through a lot more help and support and learning a lot more about my... how i tick and what triggers might be. i think it's important that ministers understand that it does take time, trying to force people and to force people into situations is not to help. well, joining me now is james kirkup, seniorfellow at the social market foundation think tank, covering topics from public policy and economics, and laura bunt, who is the chief executive of young minds, a mental health charity focused on children and young adults. laura, let's start with you. how serious is this issue? how many young people are we talking about? we are facing an emergency and young people's mental health of the moment. referrals to mental health services in the nhs are at a record high. we see more and more people referred to crisis support. government figures say one in five young people experience problems with mental health conditions, and thatis with mental health conditions, and that is up, a steep price since 2019. that is up, a steep price since 2019-_ yes- - that is up, a steep price since 2019-_ yes-- that is up, a steep price since 2019._ yes. 2019. one in five? yes. that is something _ 2019. one in five? yes. that is something that _ 2019. one in five? yes. that is something that would - 2019. one in five? yes. that is something that would require l 2019. one in five? yes. that is - something that would require some medical intervention? fix, something that would require some medical intervention?— medical intervention? a probable mental health _ medical intervention? a probable mental health condition - medical intervention? a probable mental health condition that - medical intervention? a probable i mental health condition that young people would need support with, and that's another challenge we are seeing, the young people are really struggling to get that help. waiting times to get support from the nhs are in some cases up to two years, and we know that when they are waiting and struggling to get the support they need to help their mental health, we are seeing mental health issues deteriorate, so young people being out of education or work, feeling isolated, being concerned how that issue will deepen and progress, and it's really about getting access to early help we know makes a real difference to young people. james, do you agree with the general picture, and if so, what is causing it, the pandemic, lockdown, the cost of living crisis, social media? yes, it is a problem, and a growing want _ yes, it is a problem, and a growing want there — yes, it is a problem, and a growing want. there is no single cause. the pandemic— want. there is no single cause. the pandemic is— want. there is no single cause. the pandemic is a— want. there is no single cause. the pandemic is a huge issue. as a country. — pandemic is a huge issue. as a country. we _ pandemic is a huge issue. as a country, we haven't properly come to terms _ country, we haven't properly come to terms with_ country, we haven't properly come to terms with the impact of the pandemic in the mitigation measures put in _ pandemic in the mitigation measures put in place _ pandemic in the mitigation measures put in place for it on young people. so to— put in place for it on young people. soto dig _ put in place for it on young people. soto dig down, you are saying the so to dig down, you are saying the lockdown? it stands to reason, but i don't know about the evidence. teenagers and young adults, there was a _ teenagers and young adults, there was a significant interruption to the development of the really important time of their life. i think— important time of their life. i think overall, we haven't processed that fully _ think overall, we haven't processed that fully. that is only part of it. we have — that fully. that is only part of it. we have economic anxiety, and we have _ we have economic anxiety, and we have a _ we have economic anxiety, and we have a lot — we have economic anxiety, and we have a lot of— we have economic anxiety, and we have a lot of social change. it is easy— have a lot of social change. it is easy to — have a lot of social change. it is easy to point the finger at mobile phones _ easy to point the finger at mobile phones and social media, but it does change _ phones and social media, but it does change human experience. there is intemai— change human experience. there is internal connectivity. you are always — internal connectivity. you are always exposed to causes of anxiety and stress, — always exposed to causes of anxiety and stress, so what it is to be human— and stress, so what it is to be human in_ and stress, so what it is to be human in this society has changed fundamentally, and that may be having _ fundamentally, and that may be having adverse mental health effects — having adverse mental health effects. ., . ., , effects. some of the charts there were quite _ effects. some of the charts there were quite shocking, _ effects. some of the charts there were quite shocking, weren't - effects. some of the charts there l were quite shocking, weren't they? it has become the biggest health issue. ~ . . ., ., �* ., issue. according to the obr, mental health conditions _ issue. according to the obr, mental health conditions are _ issue. according to the obr, mental health conditions are the _ issue. according to the obr, mental health conditions are the biggest - health conditions are the biggest driver— health conditions are the biggest driver of— health conditions are the biggest driver of rising economic inactivity in the _ driver of rising economic inactivity in the years— driver of rising economic inactivity in the years post—pandemic, and that is taking _ in the years post—pandemic, and that is taking workers out of the workforce. as an employer, you can't hire att— workforce. as an employer, you can't hire all the _ workforce. as an employer, you can't hire all the people you need, nor keep— hire all the people you need, nor keep the — hire all the people you need, nor keep the people you need in work. the economy as a whole is suffering along _ the economy as a whole is suffering along with _ the economy as a whole is suffering along with individuals because of this _ along with individuals because of this i _ along with individuals because of this. ., r' along with individuals because of this. ., ,~' ,., ., along with individuals because of this. . ., i. along with individuals because of this. ., ., this. i will ask both of you, part of this is young _ this. i will ask both of you, part of this is young people - this. i will ask both of you, part of this is young people having l this. i will ask both of you, part of this is young people having a different relationship with mental health than other groups, older groups, and they are more willing to express it, say it, call it?— express it, say it, call it? young --eole express it, say it, call it? young peeple are _ express it, say it, call it? young people are facing _ express it, say it, call it? young people are facing unique - express it, say it, call it? young - people are facing unique pressures, as james was talking about, coming out of the pandemic, into a cost of living crisis, with all of the kind of global anxiety and insecurity we are seeing in today's world. in the proximity of all of that through technology and social media, and how young people are impacted by that. certainly, the young people we work with have a real literacy and are aware of mental health. they are able to support each other, they are able to support each other, they are able to support each other, they are able to talk about their own mental health, and that is really positive. but getting a referral for mental health support is quite challenging. these are doctors making referrals when they are concerned about a young person meeting a threshold of needing support, so this isn't necessarilyjust needing support, so this isn't necessarily just young needing support, so this isn't necessarilyjust young people self diagnosing, but young people who are being referred to crisis help or to mental health support and often therefore having to wait to get that help. who determines this line between what would be an everyday stress at work and what would be an issue of mental health that would legitimated time off work and require medical intervention? it is obviously a pink line, not a red line. it is a conversation for society as a whole — it is a conversation for society as a whole to— it is a conversation for society as a whole to have, because there is a need _ a whole to have, because there is a need to— a whole to have, because there is a need to define that line, i think. it is really— need to define that line, i think. it is really easy for 40 somethings like us _ it is really easy for 40 somethings like us to— it is really easy for 40 somethings like us to sit around and harrumph about— like us to sit around and harrumph about snowflakes self diagnosing on the internet with anxiety, but i think— the internet with anxiety, but i think there is an issue to be carefully— think there is an issue to be carefully explored there, which is that it— carefully explored there, which is that if everyone has a mental health problem. _ that if everyone has a mental health problem, then nobody with a genuine, grave _ problem, then nobody with a genuine, grave problem can really get help. if we are _ grave problem can really get help. if we are going to describe normal human— if we are going to describe normal human experience, anxiety, stress, sadness _ human experience, anxiety, stress, sadness as— human experience, anxiety, stress, sadness as a — human experience, anxiety, stress, sadness as a health problem, we will devalue _ sadness as a health problem, we will devalue genuine mental health problems that need proper clinical help and _ problems that need proper clinical help and support. i don't have the answer _ help and support. i don't have the answer i— help and support. i don't have the answer. i think we need to have a conversation about this. do you _ conversation about this. do you suggest within the one in five, it might not be all the acute requiring of medical intervention type mental issues? or the one in five figure you said? young people are really, really struggling and young people who might be out of education, out of work, struggling to get out of bed, sleep patterns being affected, isolation, depression, low mood, impact on self—esteem, these are not issues to do with low—level anxiety, we are seeing more and more young people who are facing really, really difficult circumstances and the impact of inequality, insecurity, young people who face discrimination, disadvantage, they are more likely to struggle with mental health issues. the solutions, we talk about _ mental health issues. the solutions, we talk about early _ mental health issues. the solutions, we talk about early intervention, - we talk about early intervention, i'm sure it's about different generations in the workplace, the conversation might not be easy, not everyone is going to understand all of this. ., ., ., ,, ., of this. you are talking about welfare reform _ of this. you are talking about welfare reform and _ of this. you are talking about welfare reform and all- of this. you are talking about welfare reform and all the i of this. you are talking about i welfare reform and all the rest, this is_ welfare reform and all the rest, this is not— welfare reform and all the rest, this is not something the government can solve _ this is not something the government can solve hv— this is not something the government can solve by pulling policy levers, there _ can solve by pulling policy levers, there is _ can solve by pulling policy levers, there is a — can solve by pulling policy levers, there is a real role for employment and business. i'm also a consultant for a _ and business. i'm also a consultant for a firm _ and business. i'm also a consultant for a firm and we have lots of big corporate — for a firm and we have lots of big corporate clients and they are all really _ corporate clients and they are all really concerned about this issue because — really concerned about this issue because they want to do the right thing. _ because they want to do the right thing, look after their stuff, because they want to do the right thing, look aftertheir stuff, but also they— thing, look aftertheir stuff, but also they want to make sure that they've _ also they want to make sure that they've got the recruits they need and those — they've got the recruits they need and those recruits stay in work, so there _ and those recruits stay in work, so there is_ and those recruits stay in work, so there is a — and those recruits stay in work, so there is a real role for workplace mental— there is a real role for workplace mental health support, we are waiting — mental health support, we are waiting for an overdue government response _ waiting for an overdue government response to a consultation on tax breaks— response to a consultation on tax breaks and — response to a consultation on tax breaks and more support for workplace occupational mental health support, _ workplace occupational mental health support, so it's notjust the benefits— support, so it's notjust the benefits system, it's got to be a change — benefits system, it's got to be a change in — benefits system, it's got to be a change in attitude in the workplace and support that can be given for employers to support workers there. thanks— employers to support workers there. thanks very— employers to support workers there. thanks very much, laura and james, for coming in. hunter biden, the son of the us president, mired in criminal accusations about his conduct, has appeared outside the us congress to deny any connection between his father and his business dealings. he refused to give a private deposition to republican investigators preparing the ground for an impeachment. my father was not financially involved in my business, not as a practising lawyer, not as a board member of burisma, not in my partnership with a chinese private businessman, not in my investments at home nor abroad, and certainly not as an artist. ronjohnson is the republican senator for wisconsin and a staunch ally of former president donald trump. he joins us live from the senate. thank you so much, mrjohnson, for joining us. you are not voting, the vote is happening right now in the house of representatives, but you would hope i think to vote in an impeachment trial that may come as a result of this. what has changed since last time, since 2021, when you suggested that the impeachment of donald trump was unfair and was going to be divisive, why is this different? ~ , different? good evening, merry christmas. _ different? good evening, merry christmas, what _ different? good evening, merry christmas, what is _ different? good evening, merry christmas, what is different - different? good evening, merry christmas, what is different as | different? good evening, merry. christmas, what is different as you have the biden crime family who have been corrupt, who have been paid tens of millions of dollars from foreign entities that are adversary to the us, paid for no service other than the biden name and potentially compromising of potential us president who is now the president and he is compromised, so this is corruption. he has, his son has been indicted now, very narrow indictment, $1.4 million in taxes not paid, in the indictment it lists his expenditures, $4.9 million over four years, his expenditures, $4.9 million over fouryears, $1.6 his expenditures, $4.9 million over four years, $1.6 million of those expenditures in cash and i think the question i'm asking is that howjoe biden, the big guy, got his 10% cut in untraceable cash? biden, the big guy, got his 1096 cut in untraceable cash?— biden, the big guy, got his 10% cut in untraceable cash?— in untraceable cash? these are astonishing _ in untraceable cash? these are astonishing claims _ in untraceable cash? these are astonishing claims you - in untraceable cash? these are astonishing claims you are - in untraceable cash? these are - astonishing claims you are making, but you've already had the first proceedings, you had no evidence that president biden was in receipt of any of this money. this is his son's business.— son's business. no, there is a mountain _ son's business. no, there is a mountain of— son's business. no, there is a mountain of evidence. - son's business. no, there is a mountain of evidence. joe - son's business. no, there is a i mountain of evidence. joe biden son's business. no, there is a - mountain of evidence. joe biden got a $40,000 cheque after his brother who received a $400,000 payment, the hunter biden businesses are making regular payments tojoe biden. we have all the e—mails where supposedlyjoe biden is the big guy getting a 10% cut within a deal with the chinese nationals, so no, there is a mountain of evidence. again, tens of millions of dollars transferred from these four entities, why? what did hunter biden, james biden, what did the biden, james biden, what did the biden family members do in exchange for tens of millions of dollars from foreign entities that are adversarial to america? there is a mountain of evidence that you and the mainstream media in america doesn't understand obvious corruption. doesn't understand obvious corruotion-_ doesn't understand obvious corrution. ~ , corruption. when the impeachment trial of your— corruption. when the impeachment trial of your ally _ corruption. when the impeachment trial of your ally donald _ corruption. when the impeachment trial of your ally donald trump - trial of your ally donald trump occurred, clearly we saw the scenes, we saw the scenes of what was described in your congress as an insurrection, whereas on this occasion, i mean, you are making a series of activate —— accusations. we haven't seen the evidence of the link to the white house. you keep saying the word suppose that, for example. you haven't shown us the evidence was yellow so why did people lie? president biden has lied repeatedly to the american public saying he never talked to hunter biden about his overseas business activities. ., , ., biden about his overseas business activities. . , . activities. that is a bald-faced lie. he activities. that is a bald-faced lie- he had — activities. that is a bald-faced lie. he had dinner, _ activities. that is a bald-faced lie. he had dinner, he - activities. that is a bald-faced lie. he had dinner, he called l activities. that is a bald-faced i lie. he had dinner, he called into meetings, so why would he lie on the fact that these are corrupt activities that he wanted to hide? you keep saying there is no evidence, there is a mountain of evidence, there is a mountain of evidence starting with what the senator and i uncovered looking at treasury reports that showed suspicious activity flows from tens of millions of dollars from countries adversarial to america, thatis countries adversarial to america, that is hard evidence and why because joe that is hard evidence and why becausejoe biden was vice president and a potential president of the united states, he is that now and now he is compromised. in united states, he is that now and now he is compromised.- united states, he is that now and now he is compromised. in 2021, a senator said _ now he is compromised. in 2021, a senator said it's _ now he is compromised. in 2021, a senator said it's not _ now he is compromised. in 2021, a senator said it's not healing, - now he is compromised. in 2021, a senator said it's not healing, it's i senator said it's not healing, it's not unifying, it's like opening a wound and rubbing salt in it. do you remember who that was? that was you talking about donald trump fossi oh yes, you are talking about the very politicised impeachment of the democrats was like this is politicised.— democrats was like this is oliticised. , , ., politicised. this is not proceeding, this is a vote _ politicised. this is not proceeding, this is a vote for _ politicised. this is not proceeding, this is a vote for an _ politicised. this is not proceeding, this is a vote for an impeachmentl this is a vote for an impeachment inquiry to get the truth, to uncover the truth. the house has been very responsible in its investigation building on the senator and my�*s record where we uncovered all the inflows in the accounts. now they are looking at bank statements, they are looking at bank statements, they are uncovering payments being made tojoe, they are uncovering payments being made to joe, they are covering are uncovering payments being made tojoe, they are covering more e—mails but again the biden administration, hunter biden, president biden, is covering up. the trump children complied with the subpoena, they testified to the house committee, why does hunter biden think he's above those subpoenas, it's because they are corrupt and don't want to answer to the public, they don't want the american public to know the truth. we saw his clip but let's widen this out of it. in all the things the us esteemed american senators have to worry about right now, there is impeaching the president but you just met resident zelensky in dc, big concern around the world that the senate and congress will refuse funding for ukraine in its war against vladimir putin's aggression. are you going to pull funding, seriously?— seriously? first of all we are seeinu seriously? first of all we are seeing a _ seriously? first of all we are seeing a clear— seriously? first of all we are seeing a clear and _ seriously? first of all we are seeing a clear and present i seriously? first of all we are - seeing a clear and present danger to america, the clear and present danger right now is biden and the democrats' open border policy which has allowed 6 million people to flood into this country illegally, 1.7 million have got away, we have no idea where they are, now you have hamas calling for days of rage, you think there might be some sleeper cells there, so republicans are saying if you want to provide funding for ukraine, make sure that is going to be contingent on is actually securing our border and taking care and addressing the clear and present danger of the biden open border policy, it's the only leveraged we have. i think if the tales were turned and your government was allowing in unrestricted flow of illegal immigrants into the uk, you might takea similarstance. immigrants into the uk, you might take a similar stance. fin immigrants into the uk, you might take a similar stance.— take a similar stance. on the secific take a similar stance. on the specific issue _ take a similar stance. on the specific issue of _ take a similar stance. on the specific issue of support - take a similar stance. on the specific issue of support for i specific issue of support for volodymyr zelensky for ukraine and its fight against russia, it does seem as if your country is starting to draw away a little bit or at least the sun is, the republicans are drawing away from their support of ukraine against russia? meme of ukraine against russia? we've already provided _ of ukraine against russia? we've already provided over— of ukraine against russia? we've already provided over $100 - of ukraine against russia? -- already provided over $100 billion, europe has helped as well, but this is more of a european problem. we have to recognise reality. vladimir putin is not going to lose this war, losing is existential to putin, he has nuclear weapons, ukraine can't do what it needs to do to reduce support for war in russia, so the reality is this war will only end in a negotiated settlement, every day that goes by more ukrainians die, more russian conscripts die, i take nojoy at that, more russian conscripts die, i take no joy at that, more ukrainian more russian conscripts die, i take nojoy at that, more ukrainian is destroyed so i think why is zelensky —— it's unwise for zelensky to try to get putin to sit down and negotiate a settlement and end this war. ,, ., ., ., ., ., war. senator ron johnson, thanks for 'oinin~ us war. senator ron johnson, thanks for joining us from _ war. senator ron johnson, thanks for joining us from washington, - war. senator ron johnson, thanks for joining us from washington, dc - war. senator ron johnson, thanks for joining us from washington, dc on i joining us from washington, dc on bbc newsnight, thank you, ron johnson. you might remember earlier this week the newsnight special investigation into the fate of elite afghan troops, facing betrayal, according to one former uk general. about 200 of the british—trained forces fled taliban—run afghanistan in 2021, hailed by pm borisjohnson at the time as "incredibly important" and promised "safe passage". they now face being deported from pakistan back to afghanistan, but there have been some developments tonight. joe inwood, who broke this story, is at the wall. now, on monday's programme we brought you the story of the triples, afghan special forces funded and trained by the british, who supporters say they've been abandoned in pakistan and fear deportation. it caused quite the row, and a debate in parliament, where the minister responsible said this. regrettably we cannot relocate all former members of the afghan national security forces under the arap scheme. this means that some afghans whose bravery and heroism is in no doubt — indeed, i served alongside many of them myself — whatsoever, such as certain members of cf333 and atf444 task forces will not be eligible for relocation under arap. now, today, there was another debate with another minister speaking at the dispatch box and he had a rather different take. whilst technically the minister for the armed forces was right in that, you know, they were led and they had direct command chains into the afghan government, you know, there is going to be no attempt whatsoever from this government to close down avenues for those who served in 333 and 444, who i know that he personally trained and fought alongside. whilst i recognise the concern, he will know that i will not oversee a scheme that does not do its duty to those, particularly those in the 333 and 444 task forces who he and i served alongside in afghanistan. now, the key question is has the policy changed. we went to the ministry of defence and they sent us helpfully the exact same statement they sent on monday, but this isn't all about the nature of the policy, it's also about its implementation, how it's interpreted, and this evening tom tugendhat, the security minister, has come out in support ofjohnny mercer. we do have a row at the top of government and it could affect the fates of hundreds of afghan special forces who worked for many years with the british. joe inwood on newsnight special investigation. in gaza today, heavy rain made the misery of war a touch worse. in israel tomorrow, the us national security adviser will fly in, reportedly with a timetable for ending the conflict. but the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu appears in no mood to listen, telling soldiers at a military base they would continue to the end. james elderfrom unicef has recently returned from the region. thank you, you've joined thank you, you'vejoined us thank you, you've joined us from gaza before, telling us about the situation. you've obviously never returned from gaza. what is the situation today? we saw those terrible things. what is the situation as you see it today? the extraordinary _ situation as you see it today? tue: extraordinary thing situation as you see it today? tts: extraordinary thing with situation as you see it today? t“ts: extraordinary thing with gaza situation as you see it today? t'ts: extraordinary thing with gaza is situation as you see it today? t“ts: extraordinary thing with gaza is it literally gets worse every day, so todayis literally gets worse every day, so today is probably the worst day we've seen in the two plus months simply because today is the day we've feared the most which is heavy, heavy rains. hundreds of thousands of people who don't have a place to be, who don't have a toilet, who don't have clean water, have now got disease flooding through and we are seeing more than 100,000 children now have diarrhoea. these will kill kids and this is what we've warned about and warned about and consistently israel has spoken about zones with no intent whatsoever to create a safe zone of sanitation and clean water and now we're seeing pan out, with as they mention another couple of hundred bombardments today, so today is a sign of what's going to come, which is hell for kids is why is there any letup in the bombing of civilian areas? , ., ., , , , ., areas? the number of deaths seems to have one areas? the number of deaths seems to have gone down _ areas? the number of deaths seems to have gone down directly _ areas? the number of deaths seems to have gone down directly from - have gone down directly from bombings, but is there any evidence of that you can see on the ground? no, when you saw the numbers today, it was still several hundred bombardments officially given and again this is now in the south, where we've added a million people, more than a million people in those areas. there is also a sense from the gaza ministry of health they are having trouble collating numbers of deaths, so we don't know. the warning always was from doctors and from unicef that we will start to see a similar number of deaths from disease as from bombardments and that perfect storm of no sanitation, no clean water, thousands of, hundreds of thousands of people packed together, we are in that store now. packed together, we are in that store now— packed together, we are in that store now. , , ., store now. this is in the south of gaza so we _ store now. this is in the south of gaza so we saw _ store now. this is in the south of gaza so we saw the _ store now. this is in the south of gaza so we saw the israeli - store now. this is in the south of. gaza so we saw the israeli military told those we've got special zones where everyone can go to. in those areas you are saying people are living in tents by the tens of thousand?— living in tents by the tens of thousand? , ., ., , thousand? hundreds of thousands. hundreds of _ thousand? hundreds of thousands. hundreds of thousands, _ thousand? hundreds of thousands. hundreds of thousands, intense, i hundreds of thousands, intense, amongst the rubble and the rains have come through?— have come through? exactly, it's been probably — have come through? exactly, it's been probably the _ have come through? exactly, it's been probably the most two - have come through? exactly, it's - been probably the most two dangerous narratives which we were sold, one is we will not see the level of merciless bombardment in the south as we saw in the north, that's absolutely been proven to be incorrect and we've seen every bit the severity of people have borne the severity of people have borne the bombardments in the south and the bombardments in the south and the other was that we have safe zones. safe stones legally and morally mean water, sanitation and protection, notjust free morally mean water, sanitation and protection, not just free from bombardments. there is none of that and there's been no inclination to try to is the aid getting through now? it has not stopped, but it is increasingly difficult to get aid around because of the congestion. hundreds of thousands of people literally live on the streets. you have obviously _ literally live on the streets. you have obviously regularly called for a ceasefire. there are some diplomatic moves right now. what do you think about those general moves? i think the last 24 hours was positive in that that general assembly vote, we saw another 30 when countries around the world shift their position, so that says to me that the people around the world are hearing the suffering, hearing what is a war on children, realising that no —— as long as this goes on, we are moving further from peace. that is a positive sign, that the security council will make this decision. people often say, if there is no ceasefire, what else? if there is no ceasefire, what else? if there is no ceasefire, there is no self i safe spaces, because we cannot get the aid there. ceasefire creates life, both free from bombardment and free from disease. unicef repeating its call for ceasefire. thank you forjoining us. a deal, or nearly a deal, a consensus on using less fossil fuels, if not quite phasing them out, done at the cop28 talks in dubai. a historic achievement for some, more hot air on climate change for others, with the saudis saying it would change nothing of their plans to pump the crude oil under their deserts and put it into tankers to burn. here's kate. days of late—night negotiations, fears of talks in jeopardy, have been replaced by celebrations. the latest international climate deal has been hailed as the beginning of the end for the fossilfuel era. for the very first time at a cop, fossil fuels have been on the table as a major part of our negotiations. the line that's got everyone so excited is the suggestion countries "transition away from fossil fuels". this is historic — the first time there's been such an agreement. not easy to achieve in a system which works on consensus — almost 200 countries all have to agree on the text, or no—one does. it was only two years ago in glasgow that any fossil fuel was explicitly mentioned as part of the problem in a cop agreement. so the optimistic way of looking at this is it's an example of international diplomacy working, slowly ratcheting up action through global agreement, each conference taking the world closer to its climate goals. not everyone, though, has that rosy outlook. the association of small island states argues this new agreement contains a litany of loopholes. it is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us. to understand, we have to zoom out slightly from the headline achievement. it's there we can see countries are being "called on to contribute to" this target, and language is not used casually here. the paris agreement was nearly derailed over two options for one word — "should" or "shall". critics would point out that "called on" is a pretty weak or woolly term. recommend, encourage, urge, request are all regularly used alternatives. it's certainly not the agreement to phase out fossil fuels that some negotiators arrived hoping to achieve. elsewhere the role of transitional fuels are also recognised, a jargon term which can include natural gas. gas may have lower emissions compared to coal, but it is still a fossil fuel, responsible for a significant portion of some nations�* carbon emissions. and major emitters, including the us, are currently expanding their gas production. the agreement reached in dubai states urgent climate action is needed in this critical decade. will setting the direction of travel now be enough? to help us join the dots between what's been agreed and what it means for our lives, i'm joined now by michaeljacobs from the overseas development institute, and formerly energy and climate adviser to gordon brown, who's just returned from dubai, and lorraine whitmarsh, a professor of environmental psychology at university of bath. michael, help us decode this. when you actually read the text, deal, great, everyone is agreed, there is this big, historic, saving the world —type narrative. but when you look at it, what are people or countries compelled to do that they otherwise might not do now?— might not do now? nobody is compelled — might not do now? nobody is compelled to _ might not do now? nobody is compelled to do _ might not do now? nobody is compelled to do anything - might not do now? nobody is| compelled to do anything with might not do now? nobody is - compelled to do anything with this text, and it was never a kind of text, and it was never a kind of text to do that. this was the global stop tech. it was an attempt by countries to look at what they had done over the last five years and what they need to do over the next 10-15, but this what they need to do over the next 10—15, but this is guidance only. the real commitment will be in 2025, when each country has to bring their new targets and plans to the united nations, and we hope that they will add up to the global goal. that is always the problem, that individual countries bring their plans, but they don't necessarily add up to the goal they collectively agreed. so this is just guidance. goal they collectively agreed. so this isjust guidance. what is significant about it is that it is the first time that language and fossil fuels has been used. the first time that language and fossilfuels has been used. that the first time that language and fossil fuels has been used. that may sound like a surprise, but it has been the elephant in the room. the only way to cut emissions by getting rid of fossil fuels. only way to cut emissions by getting rid of fossilfuels. we need to only way to cut emissions by getting rid of fossil fuels. we need to get a net zero, which basically means no emissions. the only way to do that is by phasing out fossil fuels altogether, and this is the first time we have got anywhere near that idea, which is why people are saying it is the beginning of the m4 fossil fuels. you were there in dubai, in the desert, around you all the consequences of them selling billions of therms�* worth of gas and oil, and you're looking to the people just oil, and you're looking to the peoplejust in the oil, and you're looking to the people just in the vicinity and take seriously the idea that they think they shouldn't be selling any of their products in 30 years' time? tt their products in 30 years' time? tit doesn't say they should be selling them now. tit doesn't say they should be selling them now. 5: :: , ., ,�* doesn't say they should be selling them now— i i doesn't say they should be selling i them now.— i don't them now. in 30 years' time. i don't think these — them now. in 30 years' time. i don't think these people _ them now. in 30 years' time. i don't think these people will _ them now. in 30 years' time. i don't think these people will be _ them now. in 30 years' time. i don't think these people will be around i think these people will be around then, so this isn't really about these people around the table, the government ministers. this is about the trajectory for their countries. and i don't think the petro states, saudi arabia in particular, does think that it won't be doing that. i think that it won't be doing that. i think that it won't be doing that. i think that it says this agreement will make no difference. 0k. the will make no difference. ok. the cuestion will make no difference. ok. the question is _ will make no difference. 0k. the question is whether the debate so changes that in ten, 15, 30 years' time, that actually they will be having to cut their emissions, cut their production.— their production. let's bring lorraine in. _ their production. let's bring lorraine in. lorraine, - their production. let's bring lorraine in. lorraine, we . their production. let's bring l lorraine in. lorraine, we have their production. let's bring - lorraine in. lorraine, we have these massive deals, country level diplomacy, it is done. is there may be a tendency for people to maybe think it is all being done at some high level of diplomacy in people's lives don't change? what do you make of that? , ~ , lives don't change? what do you make of that? , ,, , . ., of that? yes, i think these climate talks can feel _ of that? yes, i think these climate talks can feel very _ of that? yes, i think these climate talks can feel very remote - of that? yes, i think these climate talks can feel very remote and - talks can feel very remote and potentially irrelevant to people's day to _ potentially irrelevant to people's day to day lives, and particularly, ithink. in— day to day lives, and particularly, i think, in developed countries, there _ i think, in developed countries, there is— i think, in developed countries, there is a — i think, in developed countries, there is a sort of tendency for climate — there is a sort of tendency for climate change to seem like something that is quite distant, that is_ something that is quite distant, that is not— something that is quite distant, that is not affecting our state todav~ — that is not affecting our state today. what we know, though, is that at the _ today. what we know, though, is that at the subnational level, there is a lot of— at the subnational level, there is a lot of action — at the subnational level, there is a lot of action being taken to tackle climate change. cities, regions and communities are taking action at a much _ communities are taking action at a much faster— communities are taking action at a much faster pace, more ambitious action, _ much faster pace, more ambitious action, because i think a lot of people — action, because i think a lot of people are _ action, because i think a lot of people are frustrated at the slow pace of _ people are frustrated at the slow pace of change, at the international level _ pace of change, at the international level. do _ pace of change, at the international level. , ., pace of change, at the international level. ,, , , pace of change, at the international level. , , ., , level. do you sense that countries are willing — level. do you sense that countries are willing to _ level. do you sense that countries are willing to have _ level. do you sense that countries are willing to have tough - are willing to have tough conversations with their publics around election times, for example, about some of the changes in lifestyle that surely are inherent in the sorts of changes that have been agreed at high level? i think that varies a lot. we _ i think that varies a lot. we saw— i think that varies a lot. we saw in australia, for example, that was— we saw in australia, for example, that was an — we saw in australia, for example, that was an election that was partly on climate — that was an election that was partly on climate change. it remains to be seen _ on climate change. it remains to be seen whether that is part of the discussion— seen whether that is part of the discussion next year when we are

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