true over the mid—late february period. i true over the mid-late february eriod. ., ., ., period. i do not disagree with what ou sa period. i do not disagree with what you say about _ period. i do not disagree with what you say about ali _ period. i do not disagree with what you say about ali march, _ period. i do not disagree with what you say about ali march, i - period. i do not disagree with what you say about ali march, i think. you say about ali march, i think that there were some earlier references in february —— mac early march, where less strong views were expressed on spi—m. be that as it may, i think that the picture was becoming clear in early february, would you agree with that. i think that that is _ would you agree with that. i think that that is a _ would you agree with that. i think that that is a difficult _ would you agree with that. i think that that is a difficult statement l that that is a difficult statement to make without looking at the evidence. let to make without looking at the evidence. ., ,~' to make without looking at the evidence. ., , ., ., , evidence. let me ask you a different auestion evidence. let me ask you a different question which _ evidence. let me ask you a different question which is _ evidence. let me ask you a different question which is not _ evidence. let me ask you a different question which is not about - evidence. let me ask you a different question which is not about the - question which is not about the development of the pandemic for the nhs, was the nhs likely to be able to cope with whatever was coming down the line? now, the evidence that we have heard from a number of scientists on sage and also is that it was becoming clear during february that the nhs was likely to be overwhelmed at the peak of the pandemic, for example, professor medley said: throughout february, it became increasingly clear that nhs capacity in the uk would be overwhelmed. you were at the sage meetings, perhaps not the spi—m meetings, perhaps not the spi—m meetings, that early, is that something that you picked up? apologies, are you asking about the reasonable scenario are the essential forecast? essential forecast. i'm _ essential forecast? essential forecast. i'm not _ essential forecast? essential forecast. i'm not sure - essential forecast? essential forecast. i'm not sure that i essential forecast? essential. forecast. i'm not sure that there was an essential— forecast. i'm not sure that there was an essential forecast - forecast. i'm not sure that there was an essential forecast at - forecast. i'm not sure that therej was an essential forecast at that point. was an essential forecast at that oint. ., , was an essential forecast at that oint. . , ,., , point. that is the point, it is the view that was _ point. that is the point, it is the view that was being _ point. that is the point, it is the view that was being formed - point. that is the point, it is the view that was being formed by l point. that is the point, it is the i view that was being formed by the members of the committee. you were there, i wonder whether you members of the committee. you were there, iwonder whether you picked that up in discussions at the time, or not? i that up in discussions at the time, or not? ., ., ., , ., ., or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid- — or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid. one _ or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid. one of— or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid. one of the _ or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid. one of the issues - or not? i have no memory of that, i am afraid. one of the issues with i am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m _ am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m and _ am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m and sage _ am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m and sage is - am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m and sage is that - am afraid. one of the issues with both spi-m and sage is that the l both spi—m and sage is that the consensus statements that emerged and were then passed on to downing street and other government departments perhaps did not capture the full depth of view being developed on those committees. to take this as an example, this is something we asked professor medley about. we looked at the spi—m and sage minutes, they did not reveal the type of view he was expressing about the nhs during february. do you think, either in that instance or others, that that the consensus statements and minutes did not fully reflect the discussions being held? i do not know if i was seeing the minutes at this point. i also do not remember the minutes at this point. do you have any memory at all of a developing view about whether the nhs would be able to cope with the approaching pandemic? i remember discussions about _ approaching pandemic? i remember discussions about the _ approaching pandemic? i remember discussions about the developing i discussions about the developing evidence around the virus, about whether... obviously, case fatality rate is not the... it is a hard number to estimate, i remember people talking about that, talking about the fact that it was asymptomatic transmission... adding asymptomatic transmission... adding a large number of these numbers, as you pointed out at the start, put into the simple equations, you would infer that the nhs would be overwhelmed. but, ido infer that the nhs would be overwhelmed. but, i do not think i ever saw an essential forecast at this time. it ever saw an essential forecast at this time. , ., ,., . this time. it is that soft inference rather than _ this time. it is that soft inference rather than a _ this time. it is that soft inference rather than a hard _ this time. it is that soft inference rather than a hard edged - this time. it is that soft inference j rather than a hard edged forecast this time. it is that soft inference l rather than a hard edged forecast i want to ask you about. let me take you to a few of your documents relating to this period. we can start by going to paragraph 52 of your statement yes, we have it there. you will see at the bottom of there. you will see at the bottom of the page a reference to eighth sage meeting on the 22nd of february. dc that? , you meeting on the 22nd of february. dc that? yes. you refer to planning assumptions _ that? yes. you refer to planning assumptions in _ that? yes. you refer to planning assumptions in the _ that? 1313 you refer to planning assumptions in the reasonable that? yes you refer to planning assumptions in the reasonable worst case scenario, 80% of the uk population becoming infected, with overall i% fatality rates. your notes you have provided. perhaps we can look at theirs. 215664, please. perhaps we can introduce these, dr ben warner, i will take you to a passage of these notes, but, you had a habit of keeping a notebook with you when you were at meetings, you obviously kept them and in preparing your statement have gone back to them and have done the best that you can, because we do not always see dates on the pages, to identify which notes refer to which meetings, is that right?— is that right? yes. what and so, if we can go — is that right? yes. what and so, if we can go to _ is that right? yes. what and so, if we can go to page _ is that right? yes. what and so, if we can go to page 17, _ is that right? yes. what and so, if we can go to page 17, please,... l is that right? yes. what and so, if. we can go to page 17, please,... you sa in we can go to page 17, please,... you say in your— we can go to page 17, please,... you say in your statement that having done that exercise you think that these are the notes relating to this meeting on the 27th that we were discussing. meeting on the 27th that we were discussinu. . meeting on the 27th that we were discussing. yes. at the top of the .a . e, discussing. yes. at the top of the nae, we discussing. yes. at the top of the page. we see _ discussing. yes. at the top of the page. we see case _ discussing. jez3 at the top of the page, we see case fatality: discussing. 13:3 at the top of the page, we see case fatality: 2%. infection rate: deeming the infection fatality rate? it says 1%. i do not know.— infection fatality rate? it says 1%. i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 1%. — i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 1%. as _ i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 196, as you _ i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 196, as you put _ i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 196, as you put in _ i do not know. the overall fatality rate is 196, as you put in your - rate is 1%, as you put in your witness statement. at any rate, looking a couple of lines are down, can you see the reference to 80% infection and 40% symptoms? yes. infection and 4096 symptoms? yes. does that suggest _ infection and 4096 symptoms? yes. does that suggest a _ infection and 40% symptoms? 13:3 does that suggest a discussion about asymptomatic infection at that point? asymptomatic infection at that oint? ., ., a' asymptomatic infection at that oint? ., ., 4' ., ., asymptomatic infection at that oint? v, ., ~ asymptomatic infection at that oint? v, v, «r v, point? looking at that, i think that this is a discussion _ point? looking at that, i think that this is a discussion of _ point? looking at that, i think that this is a discussion of the - this is a discussion of the reasonable worst case scenario. yes. hel us, reasonable worst case scenario. yes. help us. is — reasonable worst case scenario. yes. help us. is the _ reasonable worst case scenario. yes. help us, is the distinction _ reasonable worst case scenario. yes. help us, is the distinction between a certain proportion with infection and a lower proportion with symptoms... does that suggest that there was a discussion about asymptomatic transmission? what there was a discussion about asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that _ asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that was _ asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that was that _ asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that was that it _ asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that was that it is - asymptomatic transmission? what i meant by that was that it is likely i meant by that was that it is likely that the document being talked about at that time will refer to this, so, rather than go to my notes, i would suggest that that document will give you actually what it was, but i agree with that, it is saying that probably half of the people infected show symptoms, and that the other half are asymptomatic, yes. weill. half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously. — half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously. one _ half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously, one of— half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously, one of the _ half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously, one of the things - half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously, one of the things i - half are asymptomatic, yes. well, obviously, one of the things i was| obviously, one of the things i was interested in is how, early on in the chronology of this, asymptomatic transmission was being taken seriously. helpers, is this something you think was discussed as something you think was discussed as something likely to be happening? or something likely to be happening? or something that only might be happening? i something that only might be happening?— something that only might be ha henin? ., ,, ., ~' ., happening? i cannot speak that clearl , happening? i cannot speak that clearly. but. — happening? i cannot speak that clearly. but. i— happening? i cannot speak that clearly, but, i believe - happening? i cannot speak that clearly, but, i believe that - happening? i cannot speak that clearly, but, i believe that the l clearly, but, i believe that the asymptomatic transmission was always part of the conversations of co—grid, however, obviously, human memory as it is, at this point, obviously finds that as well —— conversations of covid—19, however, obviously, human memory, as it is, at this point, obviously finds that as well. fist at this point, obviously finds that as well. �* ,., ., , as well. at the bottom, we see in s: uare as well. at the bottom, we see in square brackets: _ as well. at the bottom, we see in square brackets: nhs _ as well. at the bottom, we see in square brackets: nhs expletive| as well. at the bottom, we see in i square brackets: nhs expletive in any scenario. do you see that? can we go over the page? there is another reference which may be driving at the same thing, or it may not be. do you see, for lines down, it says: long peek over at health capacity. it says: long peek over at health ca aci . . it says: long peek over at health capacity. yes. helpers, it would seem that— capacity. yes. helpers, it would seem that both _ capacity. yes. helpers, it would seem that both of— capacity. 153 helpers, it would seem that both of those capacity. 1;e:3 helpers, it would seem that both of those references, perhaps, are two concerns about the nhs being overwhelmed. i perhaps, are two concerns about the nhs being overwhelmed.— nhs being overwhelmed. i believe that it sa s nhs being overwhelmed. i believe that it says is _ nhs being overwhelmed. i believe that it says is in _ nhs being overwhelmed. i believe that it says is in the _ nhs being overwhelmed. i believe that it says is in the reasonable . that it says is in the reasonable worst case scenario that sage is discussing, they say that in these reasonable worst case scenarios, the nhs is overwhelmed.— reasonable worst case scenarios, the nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can no nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can to back to nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can go back to the — nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can go back to the previous _ nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can go back to the previous page: - nhs is overwhelmed. perhaps we can go back to the previous page: your i go back to the previous page: your note talks about the nhs being expletive in any scenario. is there any significance in the word any? i would suggest the documents sage is discussing is the way to investigate this, i would suggest it is likely that, as we have seen multiple times, the graph is drawn with an unmitigated pete, a mitigated peak, possibly multiple ones, peak, depending on the interventions at the time. all of those are likely over the top for the reasonable worst case scenario. so. over the top for the reasonable worst case scenario.— over the top for the reasonable worst case scenario. so, it is the vafious worst case scenario. so, it is the various modelled _ worst case scenario. so, it is the various modelled or— worst case scenario. so, it is the various modelled or proposed i worst case scenario. so, it is the . various modelled or proposed peaks that are the any you speak of? i’m that are the any you speak of? i'm cruessin , that are the any you speak of? in guessing, giving what is in my witness statement and notes, that does look to be the obvious conclusion.— does look to be the obvious conclusion. , . «r , conclusion. letters look back, 'ust to complete — conclusion. letters look back, 'ust to complete this, i conclusion. letters look back, 'ust to complete this, at i conclusion. letters look back, just to complete this, at paragraph - conclusion. letters look back, just to complete this, at paragraph 56| conclusion. letters look back, just i to complete this, at paragraph 56 of your witness statement. you explain what you think you mean about these notes there. page 17 of your witness statement, paragraph 56. thank you. you fairly say you have no independent memory of the conversation at the meeting. for lines down, you say that the bracketed mate —— statement meant that in any of the worst scenarios under discussion, the nhs would be under discussion, the nhs would be under extreme stress, is that what you mean?— under extreme stress, is that what oumean? , ., _ , ., , you mean? obviously, in my notes, it sa san . you mean? obviously, in my notes, it says any- today. _ you mean? obviously, in my notes, it says any- today. i — you mean? obviously, in my notes, it says any. today, i have _ you mean? obviously, in my notes, it says any. today, i have given - you mean? obviously, in my notes, it says any. today, i have given my - says any. today, i have given my best guess as to what any means. yes, that is what i mean. you best guess as to what any means. yes, that is what i mean.- best guess as to what any means. yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange. — yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange. it — yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange. it may _ yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange, it may have _ yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange, it may have been - yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange, it may have been on - yes, that is what i mean. you had an exchange, it may have been on the l exchange, it may have been on the same day, it was on the same day. could we have a look? it has been brought up, thank you. if we look at the bottom first, this is an exchange of e—mails with patrick vallance after the meeting that we have discussed. you say: in the sage meeting today, i was a little concerned that the nhs did not seem to know what they needed for their models. they did not seem to have started modelling. did you have the same feeling? if we go out and look at the response, patrick vallance immediately responds: yes, i have been pushing them on this for the last ten days or so, i think stephen powys, a senior member of the nhs in england has grasped it. they say that they have been doing a lot of modelling, but they have not defined the input variables well enough, he thinks it is on track. studio: this is the second part of today's... the fifth week of studio: this is the second part of today's. .. the fifth week of what studio: this is the second part of today's... the fifth week of what is termed module two, the hearings examining the initial response to the covid crisis. this fee covid inquiry. the gentleman you saw there was doctor—mac, the former special adviser at number ten. you may have heard some strong language in that, that forms part of his evidence. there is more to come, he first came to the people's attention recently. again, that is because of a note with some language in that. earlier in the day, there was stuart glassborow, the former private secretary principal to the prime minister, described as the link person between the treasury and number ten, person between the treasury and numberten, one person between the treasury and number ten, one of the highest ranking civil servants. and, first thing this morning, at 1030, when they were reopened, clare lombardelli, she also gave her statement. the inquiry continues, you can continue to watch it online on the bbc news website. the covert inquiry from key government advisers and individuals —— covid inquiry. came through the door needing to use their resource, only on some people. live from london, this is bbc news. donald trump is about to testify in a civil fraud trial in donald trump is about to testify in a civilfraud trial in new donald trump is about to testify in a civil fraud trial in new york. donald trump is about to testify in a civilfraud trial in new york. the first time a former president takes to the witness stand. but first time a former president takes to the witness stand.— to the witness stand. but in the meantime. _ to the witness stand. but in the meantime, the _ to the witness stand. but in the meantime, the people - to the witness stand. but in the meantime, the people of- to the witness stand. but in the - meantime, the people of this great country understand it. they see it, and they don't like it.— country understand it. they see it, and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated _ and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated next _ and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated next to _ and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated next to his _ and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated next to his lawyers i and they don't like it. donald trump is now seated next to his lawyers in| is now seated next to his lawyers in the courtroom and is expected to take the stand any moment. israel's military says it is effectively split gaza into, saying it had 450 targets in the last 24 hours. the health ministry says more than 10,000 people have now been killed there since the war began. all the major un agencies call again for a humanitarian ceasefire saying enough is enough. hello and welcome to verified live. donald trump has arrived in court in manhattan where he will testify in a civil fraud trial that threatened his real estate empire. the former president is accused of inflating the value of its properties over $2 billion in order to score favourable terms on loans insurance. his two elder sons eric and
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