Hello this is bbc news with shaun ley. The headlines. As the final few days of campaigning get underway, the conservatives promise to introduce an australian style points based immigration system to control unskilled migration. Meanwhile, labour has set out its plans for social care if it wins the election by offering more funding and free personal care for older people in england. A factory fire in the indian capital, delhi, which broke out in the early hours of the morning has killed at least 43 people. Now time for dateline london. Hello, and welcome to dateline london. Im carrie gracie. This week. Something we didnt expect President Trump defending nato against attack from a european leader. Something we did expect a teenager shaking up a Global Climate change conference. And something where no side dares trust its expectations a british election. My guests this week are abdel bari atwan, an analyst on arab affairs, portuguese writer eunice goes, henry chu, International Editor of variety, marc roche of french news weekly le point. Welcome to you all. Is it too easy to knock nato . At a fractious summit to mark the alliances 70th birthday, the french president stood by his assessment that it was brain dead, the american president said such comments were disrespectful, the turkish president retorted that it was the french president who was brain dead and the canadian Prime Minister got caught on camera gossiping about the american president , who then said the canadian was two faced. But natos secretary Generaljens Stoltenberg shrugged all this off as surface stuff and insisted that the substance of the alliance was strong at 70. 0n the evidence of last weeks summit, is it . Marc, you start us off, you were there. Yes, and it was quite messy, but on the whole they managed, like they do at these meetings, a declaration saying nothing. I think macron is right. Nato is brain dead. It was rather a wake up call, because europe is rather russia, america is china, for france it is what is going on in africa, and terrorism and cyber terrorism, so they have to adapt to the trend, and they havent done it. With brexit, there will be a European Defence dimension. Brexit is coming, and europe will organise itself in defence because we cant rely on america. And then there will be franco british entente on defence, because those are the only armies on the continent really. It is an organisation which is not fit for purpose. I would not necessarily agree that nato is dead. I would agree that spending by various nato countries is going up. We have been hearing, since the fall of the soviet union, that nato is no longer necessary, or doesnt have an identity any longer. And certainly there has been some soul searching about what is the threat and where does it go through now. Saying it is dead is a step too far. I suppose it is a matter of expectations. The Alliance Obsolete . 0n the one hand he said it was obsolete, and now he is defending nato. I think it does need to figure out what its purpose is and where the threats lie. One thing it did not address is Climate Change, and that is a National Security threat around the world. I think nato still has some resilience left. Eight years ago when it was debating what to do in libya, people were talking about the fact that it was squabbling and does it have a future, and here we are eight years later. I think that soul searching will continue to go on. They are embarking on another process of trying to refine themselves, but whether we can call them dead, i think there is still life in them yet. What about macrons bid to say that europe needs to step up in . I think he is right, because in 70 years the threats of the north atlantic have changed. But the United States also seems to have come on now, very different strategic goals, the geo political challenges are very different, and it also does not seem to be extremely interested in the security of europe. So, i think what macron said, perhaps, it was not the most diplomatic language, but occasionally leaders need to use forceful language to shake up an institution and think about its future. Normally it is funding. Far more important, nato, if it wants to endure as an institution, needs to think about what its mission is going to be. What are its threats, what other security it faces . Looking at the security of europe, a lot of the threats it faces are internal. We are talking about leaders and governments that are undermining democracy. We have to think of our relationship with turkey, and allies. Lets take a look at what happened in syria in the last six months. The United States was at odds with turkey within syria. This is not supposed to happen amongst nato allies. I think up that they did promise, because they said they were going to have a forward looking reflection process. Barry . I believe nato is passing through a phase of dismantlement. Thats how i see it. Nato was actually tested twice and syria comment now we have two policies. Also, a deal which again exposed the weakness and division among nato, and now we have another purpose which is coming in the gulf. The iranian influence there, we have two axes, and both of them are actually part of nato. The european axis, the European Alliance is taking care of the so called naval routes in the gulf, and then we have an American Coalition which is completely different. The iranian influence, and both of them from nato and no correlation between the two sides . I believe nato is dying. Germany and france would like to have their own Security System away from nato, and trump said you should increase your payment to nato. You should also increase your participation in that. Raise it to 2 of your national income. I believe it is a huge mess. We are going to have to leave that topic, or most parts of it, i hope those nato leaders are watching because that is a very long to do list in their forward thinking and reflection process. One of the things that henryjust mentioned was climate. Lets turn to that now. The point of no return is in sight and hurtling towards us. The warning from un secretary general Antonio Guterres as he attempted to concentrate government minds at the madrid Climate Change conference. Outside the chamber, teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg was equally grim, telling a protest march of young activists, we have achieved nothing. Will madrid now produce the concrete action they are demanding . Bari, why dont you start us off . Unfortunately, it is a very serious problem, and the attention from the very big players is very limited, so i am not very optimistic here. We are waiting for a huge disaster to take place, and then the International Community will start crying. That is what we saw before when the prices of oiljumped. We are waiting for a disaster to take place, so after that they will. Now, the young people are raising the flag. Those young people are very aware of what is happening, and i believe that if the sea levels rise by 1. 5 metres, most of the islands will disappear . I would say to take it even further than you, some of the leaders are not paying attention, some are positively destructive. Obstructive. We have a climate denier in the white house. In brazil, there is a president that also denies that Climate Change is happening, and applies deforestation to the amazon. China has a mixed, but somewhat positive attitude towards combating Climate Change. Once their economy starts to slow down, which we have seen in the last couple of years, coal fired plants are back on the agenda that without actual enforcement mechanisms, which this conference will not produce, there is not going to be the change we need to seek to avoid catastrophes that are in weight. In paris, when the last pledges were made, that was on the back of a deal made between the us and china. Exactly. And now we are seeing the fruit of that, unfortunately. Eunice, you are portuguese and so is the secretary general. He is using the Strong Language to get things moving. Does he have the leverage as an individual or a politician . I think he has the moral leverage, because as the secretary general of the un he represents the world. He can be very forceful and strong in the choice of words he uses. Is it going to be effective . This conference is a talking shop. Nothing is going to be agreed. I am trying to see the Silver Lining up all of this. I think that in the last year, the last 18 months, we have seen a change in the way the issue is perceived. The issue has been now agenda set. The eyes of the world are now on political leaders to commit themselves to actual policies that will result in a reduction of Carbon Dioxide emissions. I think the younger generations, wait for nothing less. This is going to take some time, and the question is, will it be enough . Mark, as Greta Thunberg herself has said, in madrid we have achieved nothing. She and other climate activists have achieved a raising in consciousness, but in terms of an actual remodelling of how economy works, we await. When it comes to the crunch, it is employment that leaders will be elected on. They will put employment and Economic Growth above anything, and that means that Climate Change is not in practice the top issue. This being said, the good news is that the young people are aware of it, and they are at the forefront of it, and also that the Green Movement is coming back. At the European Election they did very well, and they are coming, now, almost a government. So, there is positive aspects. Europe is not on target to meet its 2030 targets. The other issue linked with Climate Change, like migration, unemployment. In practice, Climate Change is not important. We need to bring in, and start electing green leaders and voices that do not see tackling Climate Change as an obstacle to Economic Growth, an obstacle to the creation ofjobs, and so on. Tackling Climate Change can also create lots of very good opportunities for sustainable development. It can create different types ofjobs as well. You hear the different types of conversations taking place between green economists, but this is happening at the margins. We are stuck in a very Old Fashioned mindset. Why dont we have a Global Leader that can articulate this narrative that can articulate this narrative that a green agenda is good for us . Pope francis coming out the way he did to make a statement about it. Individual governments to act is where the difficulty lies. Particularly the two biggest polluters, the us and china. Ive been trying to rack my brain and think of any other issue in my lifetime which is of longest consequence and plays out over such a long period, but is held hostage to the short term politics, and the unavoidable outcome of our political systems. I would like to say the greatest example is the Renewable Energy in the us. To get re elected, they promise short term gains, and this is a long term issue. One of the things pope francis has said, his is a moral agenda rather than an economic, but he has said that we cannot put the burden of the problems of this generation on the next generation, but who is listening . The Positive Side here, who were taking care of this problem for the next generation is the younger generation. If you look at the demonstration in madrid, these are the young people. This is a positive sign. This generation of leadership wouldnt do anything. I believe wont do anything. We are talking about Climate Change. Let me give you an example. In the middle east, 0k we have wars, now we have flooding. 0ur indian peninsula, dubai, used to have 20 and 30 years without any reins, and now we have flooding in dubai. The other thing is, we are waiting for a White Christmas here. It could be in dubai a White Christmas, because last year it was snowing there. So snow on the Arabian Peninsula is a very serious problem. We have to look at it and try to find solutions for the next generation, because it is too. It is unfairfor our it is unfair for our generation to put the problem on them. While we might be optimistic about the next generation, and that their priorities Climate Change, they are not the ones in power. By the time they rise to power, this generations leaders if they remain unchecked. It is going to be beyond their control by incredible advances in technology. We wait to see if the conference in madrid has any positive change. This coming friday, a friday the 13th for those who are superstitious, british voters will wake to discover which of two unpopular leaders they have put in charge of a bitterly divided country. Will it be borisjohnson with his vow to get brexit done, orjeremy corbyn under the banner for the many, not the few . The conservatives are consistently ahead in the polls, but the electoral map is hard to read and many hearts and minds are not yet won. Eunice, you studied politics and kept a very close eye on the ground in this election. Well, no one is in a place to make a prediction. What we can say is that the conservatives have kept a very big advantage, consistently throughout the campaign. Labour has narrowed, in a very small way, that gap. If the opinion polls continue until thursday, on friday the 13th, it is very likely that we will wake up with a conservative government. There have been interesting polls that look at what is happening in constituencies. So, it is a much more granular analysis of electoral behaviour. What we can say for sure is that voters are utterly fed up, not only with leaders, but with politics. This is the third election in four years. That is a lot of elections, and a lot of problems. Brexit has dominated in the United Kingdom and there are a lot of problems. Holding an election in winter is also not the best time of year. At this point in the year people are gloomy, and the weather is gloomy. There is not a lot of optimism out there. When voters are angry, well, they can behave somewhat unexpectedly. Mark, your assessment . Who has made tactical gains and tactical mistakes . I follow only on brexit. 0n brexit, the only thing i have visited with boris johnson, if he wins, which the polls seem to show, they will be out they will be a very clear cut out on the 31st of january and then a mess. Because we dont know how they will take the agreement until the end of the year knowing that canada took seven years. You have the parliament all over europe agreed. They might be, in case johnson wins with the majority, they might be a framework of a deal. This said, labour has not started in brussels because they dont want to reopen the investigation. Negotiation. Corbyn, i think, does not want a second referendum. In brexit, it is zero points all. I dont think there have been any crushing blows dealt by either side. 0r incredible mistakes by either side. 0r incredible mistakes by either side. They are both playing it safe. I thinkjeremy corbyn, who likes to point at polls a couple of years ago when it seemed he was going to be completely buried and then came in better than expected, he no longer has the novelty factor he did. People who have already decided he is not trustworthy are going to remain in that camp. We have learnt now not to trust the polls, and that has been true in the last few years. On every occasion, it is hard for me to remember a poll that has accurately predicted something in my country, so i think things are still up for grabs. We might wake up on friday the 13th with a very different configuration, from what we are talking about right now which seems to be the likelihood. Do you think that labours position has made it difficult to attack the point that mark is making about the long term negotiations still to follow in any deal . To be honest the ambiguity of the labour party makes any people are suspecting that there arent any clear cut policy here. Watching the two debates, i believe that we should not underestimate jeremy corbyn. I believe that his agenda is really based on a lot of local issues, education and public services. The second thing which i believe is extremely important here, we have to remember Hillary Clinton when she used to be ahead, 80 ahead of donald trump, and the last few days, what happened . We were shocked to wake up and find trump as president. The opinion polls are putting the conservatives ahead. The opinion polls are putting the conservatives ahead. I wouldnt be surprised if we wake up on the 13th of this month, friday the 13th, with a huge shock. I dont know, but we shouldnt underestimate what is happening. I predict liberal democrat and Labour Coalition coming. I remember that time when they used to be part of a sort of coalition. You say a conservative majority, you say labour. I would say a conservative majority, a small one. The labour programmes overspending has not calculated the prospect of new taxes that might put people off a party that advocate that. You talk about the economy, and i think a lot of people do vote on those issues, but i have read the various amounts of coverage in the media about the election going more granular in terms of looking at constituencies, it is remarkable how much brexit is indeed on voters minds. Whether it is being fed up that it hasnt happened because you are relief voter and you just want to get on with it, and that making problems for labour and its usual problems in the north, or on the conservative side. And it is generally generational thing too, because the younger people look at brexit, but they are also worried about austerity, and the fact they are unable to get on the housing ladder. The fact they are leaving University Thousands of pounds in debt. We are going to find here, also, this big generational divide, with the older voters facing very different types of problems, and younger voters. We havent talked much about the liberal democrats yet. Have they made mistakes during the course of their campaign, and i dont know whether anyone has a view on those. You need a second referendum to create. Was that a strategic error . I believe people are sick of brexit. They can see the negative effect of it on the economy. They can see the negative effect of it on the economy. As henry said, they will vote according to brexit. I believe, now, they need to solve this problem forever. Boris johnson doesnt plan will decide it forever. We need another referendum, because if we dont have another referendum to solve this problem forever, i think this country will be. Dismantled. I think people will look at this, try to make up their mind, and personally i think they should stay in the eu. We have only got one moment left, but eunice has talked about voters being tired. What about trust in this election . We have had considerable promises on all sides in terms of spending. Whose promises do people believe in terms of trusting them . Im not sure the voters have much trust in anyone, because all the promises have been broken up until now. I think voters will go with the party that they think have the best chances to get something done, but i dont think they think that any agenda will be fully implemented. We have got to leave it. Thanks for being with us. Thats it for dateline london for this week. Were back next week at the same time. Goodbye. Hello, stormy times ahead through the rest of today and on into tomorrow morning. But for tuesday as well, another deep area of low pressure set to roll across the uk, bringing widespread gales and heavy rain. Here is todays low, lots of isobars, thats what is driving the strong winds, that big squeeze around this area of low pressure. Theyre also going to feed some more persistent rain into western scotland and Northern Ireland through the afternoon but showers getting driven a good way eastwards through the central belt. England and wales, the showers drifting eastwards as well, some sharper ones for the south east through the afternoon. And the wind, gusting up to 60 mph around the irish sea coast around the afternoon, but peaking potentially at 80 mph as this band of squally showers dives through overnight. By monday, we start to see High Pressure building from the west. That will calm things slightly but still gales, this time for the north sea coast. Some showers in the east early on but things should become brighter later in the day, a chillier feel for monday. This is bbc news. Im shaun ley. The headlines at midday. As the final few days of campaigning get under way, the conservatives promise to introduce an australian style points based immigration system to control unskilled migration. First violinists, nuclear physicists, prima ballerinas, whatever, they are going to come in. What we want to do is bear down on migration, particularly of unskilled workers who have no job to come to. Meanwhile labour sets out its plans for social care if it wins the election, by offering free personal care for older people in england and an additional £10 billion of funds. Part of the reason why our nhs is under such intense pressure is, yes, ten years of cutbacks across health services, but weve had these savage cuts to social care budgets. A man has been arrested in connection with allegations of racist abuse directed at players during the man city,
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