Transcripts For BBCNEWS HARDtalk 20240714

Headlines. Its just youre pretty much up to date on the headlines. Itsjust gone youre pretty much up to date on the headlines. Its just gone for 30 a. M. Now on bbc news, hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk, im stephen sackur. The British Governments Brexit Strategy can be summed up in new Prime Minister Boris Johnsons three word phrase do or decline. The uk is leaving on october the 31st, he says, deal or no deal. Right now, a deal between london and brussels appears unlikely, so what about the alternative . Well, my guest is iain duncan smith, former conservative party leader and ardent brexiteer. Can Prime Ministerjohnson deliver a no deal exit and what will it mean for britains politics and economy . Iain duncan smith, welcome to hardtalk. Thank you. If i may, let me begin by quoting to you the words of an European Union official in brussels uttered just a couple of days ago. A no deal exit now appears to be the uk governments central scenario. Would you agree with that . In the sense that the government has made it clear they think the existing Withdrawal Agreement is dead, unless there is major surgery to it, and the government has set out the starting point, which is the end of the backstop, then theyre not prepared to discuss it. Now, i suspect that theyre open to other discussions, but that is certainly not the discussion. So what hes saying is essentially yes, thats the position where in, we prepare for no deal and find out whats going to happen with the European Unionropean union. Its up to them really. You must be delighted . Well, ive always wanted a relationship with the European Union but they said the only way you can do this is to deliver on the referendum, which is to leave, so to that extent you have to decide your leaving come what may. So right now then, i suppose if were blunt about it, were in the process of some kind of weird blame game with Boris Johnson and key ministers saying theyll only talk to brussels, only negotiate, if brussels accepts the Withdrawal Agreement, and, of course, the backstop within it, are completely dead. And they know that brussels can never accept that, so essentially theyre trying to pile the blame on brussels for the complete failure of any negotiation. Well, actually the failure of the negotiation goes back a long way. It goes back to the way theresa may and her government approached this negotiation. I dont blame the European Union, by the way, im one of those who always says if i was them i would have behaved in almost pretty much the same way. They do a lot of trade deals, they know exactly how to operate in a trade deal. They treat you immediately as a third country. They did that, and theyre always very aggressive, thats what they do. My problem was the British Government seemed to think theyre talking to friends. Theyre not friends because were leaving the European Union, so they behaved in a way that they thought. The British Government spent this whole time trying to find ways to satisfy the concerns of the European Union, manor from heaven for them, and the result is the deal weve now, beneficial to the European Union dramatically, but not beneficial to the uk at all. But why wont Boris Johnson be straight with the british people . Why does he still say. At least he said a few weeks ago, the chances of a no deal exit are a million to one against. That is patently nonsense. Depends what you mean by deal and a no deal and this is too simplistic. What we have is a Withdrawal Agreement, an all encompassing process that has payments we are meant to make, £39 billion to them, but it has a implimentation period, where we would stay in for maybe two or three years, and accept the role of the court ofjustice, and the backstop would mean Northern Ireland would have to remain pretty much in the Customs Union and mostly in the single market. So thats the Withdrawal Agreement, which we are saying is dead. But in the meantime, they have prepared for not having the Withdrawal Agreement and so are we. So what does that entail . It means there are between 17 and 30 what they call mini deals. These are deals all about planes landing, aviation safety, transport. They are not deals. Well, they are, because theyre all the elements about functionality that are deals so when borisjohnson talked about million to one, the answer is theres lots of deals to be done, they arent the overarching deal but are elements of functionality. The idea were leaving the eu with absoultely no functionality is nonsense. You can dress it up anywhere you like, you can call it no deal, hard brexit, you can call it what you like, but the fact is, the conservative party, for generations has prided itself on being the party of business, of sound money, of fiscal responsibility. If theres a no deal brexit, which you appear now to accept is highly likely, that reputation is going to be shredded. Well, lets place what comes in front of Everything Else, which is that we asked the british people and told them at the same time their decision is binding, whether or not they wanted to stay in or leave the European Union, and my view at the end of it all is democracy trumps Everything Else so we have to get on with it. Whether one likes it or not, the reality is they voted to leave, so we have to leave. The question really is. But with respect, you didnt tell them that would involve abandoning notions like sound money, a strong pound, fiscal responsibility, being a party that actually listened to business, all of that has been jumped. You didnt actually tell them that. No, because most of that is complete nonsense, with respect. The reality for us is that all of these things are transitory. Whats already happened since we left is the pound fell. Actually my view is it was overvalued anyway, so thats meant our exports are boosted, and finally enough whats really putting pressure on the European Union at the moment in a monetary sense is there economy is teetering on the edge of recession. Germanys in trouble a three day working week in some of their manufacturing sectors but theyve seen a de facto 12 tariff on their goods because the pound fell by i2 . That means if they have tariffs after that, they have tariffs on top of the fall. Already their competitiveness in the uk has fallen. So when we look at this carefully, what were saying is these things move around, floating currencies move, they adjust in accordance with each other, and the key element that needs to be decided, and ive talked to most businesses and the vast majority say theyre not worried about this any longer and those made the progress. I dont know what businesses you talk to. I talk to banks, i talk to industry, i talk to farmers. Youve talked about the currency issue and we see a weaker pound but its notjust about the weak currency, to quote mark carney, the governor of the bank of england, youre not a fan of his but he is the governor of the bank of england, he says, in the event of no deal, and a no transition brexit, sterling is going to fall and risk premiums on uk assets will rise and volatility is going to spike higher. If were talking about honesty, why dont you come clean with the British Public and say, yes, all of that is true and were prepared to accept very, very high price for this brexit of ours. I dont believe the price is high. What i say to those who forecast the worst cases is they may come about but then again they may not come about. Lets take most of their previous forecasts, almost every single previous forecast by the bank of england has been wrong. They forecast directly after we even voted for brexit that unemployment would rise by 500,000, but instead employment has gone up by nearly 1. 5 million. They said we would have an immediate stock market crash but the stock market hasnt crashed. All these various things have been thrown at us again and again and again. Many of their models are quite incorrect. I dont doubt there may be adjustments taking place straight after if we leave without any particular Withdrawal Agreement with the eu, but i believe very quickly indeed that will all rectify and stabilise itself. Frankly you question the competence it seems of the governor of the bank of england, but i cant imagine you question the competence of your own government and its officials. I do. You do . So when you have officials working on no deal brexit. Let me just finish this. Almost all the main forecasters have been fundamentally wrong through this process. These are all the same bodies that fail to spot the crash in 2008. Every one of them the treasury, the bank of england, the imf, all of them didnt get it. They all forecast exactly the same, with or without margins, about terrible problems after the vote and they were wrong. I have a very simple view about this, they dont know the future any more than you do or i do. The £2 billion currently being spent on no deal preparation is being handled by officials you have no faith in, i guess. Im talking about forecasting. Those very officials have talked about, for example, the real dangers within the education department. Weve seen the leaked e mails, warehousing and stockpiling capacity they say will be limited and this department has limited levers to address the risks, and we are heavily dependent on the actions of major suppliers and other departments to ensure continued provision of food for schools. This is the kind of planning thats now happening. Are you saying these officials are are fearmongering and incompetent . Be very careful when you plan for these things you understand whats going to happen, not what you think will absolutely happen in a worst case, and ill give you an example. The other day i went to a presentation by the contingency executive, all right, and they were to tell us all these things about where they had set their requirements and what they thought was going to go wrong. They told us they planned for enormous hold ups at calais which would backlog traffic in dover all the way up, so all of these great plans for stack backs would happen, because this would slow down fresh food coming across and cause major problems. I asked them a simple question, i said, in all your contingency planning, did you bother to talk to the calais Port Authority . Did you speak to the president of the pas de nord . Because they have come out before that and said number one, there will be no delays at calais. Why . Because they will let literally everything through that went through before. If they have to stop anything that goes back a0 kilometres to an inspection point, which they are now completing, that inspection point is based on what happens at rotterdam on a daily basis. The time limits and the delays at calais are now absolutely being refuted by the french authorities themselves. And if they arent being delayed. With respect, its not just about what happens at calais, its about what happens at dover as well. The dover authority. Ijust wonder. Canifinish . The dover authority has also said, which they took no account of, but they will not stop anything coming into the uk that would have passed through previously and any inspections will be done well away from the port and theyll prioritise things like fresh food. So with all that going on, you have to ask yourself a question about government. Are we in the business of frightening people or are we in the business of actually trying to get this right . So many different officials and experts predicting a much, much more painful no deal brexit than you appear ready to countenance, but lets park that for a moment and talk about the looming constitutional crisis the United Kingdom faces. There are many senior figures inside your party, including very recent former ministers, including Philip Hammond, the chancellor of the exchequer, david gauke, who was justice secretary, and former Prime Ministerjohn major, who was sitting in that chair a short time ago, all adamant that they can and they will block a no deal brexit. How are you going to make sure theyre wrong . Well, its up to them what they want to do. I dont see what the mechanisms ar,e but parliament is parliament and theyll have to make their decisions about what they want to do. Right now the default position is that it is law we will leave on the 31st of october whatever. By the way, thats under european law, so unless we ask for an extension, we have to leave under european law, which we are governed by, by the way, until 11pm on the 31st of october. So parliament can do what it likes, but the key issue is even if parliament were to try to change the date, european law, unless we ask for an extension and are granted one, we leave at the end of the article 50 process. Assuming. You seem to know borisjohnson will be the Prime Minister througout that period, it is possible the Prime Minister will be replaced and there may be a vote of confidence in Early September and he may lose it. He may lose it, and in which case under the fixed term parliaments act, as lord sumption said at the other day quite rightly, by the way under the fixed term parliaments act, you have 14 days in which somebody else, a party, has to command a majority in the house, otherwise its accepted under that act that the existing government continues until another government is formed. Hang on, lets go through this piece by piece. I was going to walk you through what the act says. Yeah, but theres a phase youve missed out, if i may would Boris Johnson resign if he lost a vote of confidence . Lord sumption was clear about this, there is no requirement for the government to resign, because thats what youd be having if the Prime Minister resigned. But there is precedent. No, no, no, no. Weve never had this before under the fixed term parliaments act. 0k, under the fixed term parliaments act, but listen to these words it seems the tory party is in danger of ripping itself apart. Here are the words of sir malcolm rifkind, if the Prime Minister refused to accept the normal consequence of losing a confidence vote. If he sought to prevent both parliament and the electorate having a final say on no deal, he would create the gravest constitutional crisis since the actions of charles i led to the civil war. Lot of nonsense what dear old malcolm is busy doing is talking about what used to happen in the old days. Before the fixed term parliaments act, you had a vote of confidence and if you lost you had to resign and there was a general election. That was the precedent what has happened since the formulation of this fixed term parliaments act is its very clear, its a very different process. What its meant to do is allow for a process for another government to be formed. So if you have a vote of confidence and lose the vote of confidence, the government stays until another government can be formed. If another government cannot be formed, then 14 days later the Prime Minister has to call an election within reasonable time. That is the process. It is not as it was. Malcolm rifkind, im afraid, is looking at what used to happen and not what happens now. That is the constitutional position. I have to tell you, lord sumption, no small beer on the idea of the constitution, said categorically the other day. Two or three days ago, that this is the process, this is what will happen and the government does not have to resign until either the election or that other government is formed. Coming back to this notion of the conservative party tearing itself apart, whatever happens over the next few days and weeks, it seems to me like the party cannot continue to include people such as yourself on one side, and those like dominic grieve, ken clarke, Philip Hammond on the other, who feel that no deal brexit would be a complete betrayal of the interests of the british people. What is going to happen to your party . Well, whats going to happen to all parties . The labour party is quite divided over this issue. But lets focus on your party. Im simply making a point. Your always focus on the conservative party. The reality is, politics in the public are divided on this issue. We just have to recognise that. But what we have to do is recognise the overarching priority is to deliver on the democratic vote of the british people. 17. 4 million people, the largest number ever to vote in a british election, voted to leave the European Union. So that is our number one priority. Let me stop you there. Interesting number one priority. Isnt that another way of saying, we are no longer a conservative party. We are the brexit party . No, we have always been the conservative party but we also are the party that gave the british people. You are the brexit party, and part of your strategy, and Dominic Cummings who of course is the most important adviser to borisjohnson, his strategy is to ensure that by becoming the brexit party, you neutralise the threat of nigel farage and his brexit party. Thats what this is about. No, were the conservative party, but we happen to believe in delivering on what we promised the british people, which is their decision, was binding on a British Government. The problem weve got at the moment is, the British Public that as a majority, but the majority in parliament is in fact mostly for remain. So this is where the parliament now is creating a constitutional crisis at being completely at odds with the British Public on a major constitutional issue. So the answer to that is, we draw our authority not from parliament. We draw it from the british people who loan to parliament for a period of that governance, then we hand it back for an election and ask them again for that authority. We gave them the authority when we gave them the referendum. Parliament now must act on that. So in theory, parliament should be the brexit parliament. It shouldnt be just the conservative party arguing for this, because there are many labour mps who now recognise that if we dont deliver on brexit. As youre well aware, we live in a representative democracy, not a direct democracy. No, no, no, no, we do. Well thats the truth, isnt it . But stephen, it is very important. When parliament votes overwhelmingly to hand the decision to the british people, it votes again to endorse it, overwhelmingly, it votes overwhelmingly to trigger article 50, which is explicit that within two years you must leave the European Union, then we must deliver on that. Thats constitutionally the case. Youre reminding me with your passion that we had a former tory Prime Minister, john major, in that chairjust the other day, banging on the table, making points entirely and absolutely contradictory to the once you are making. But he doesnt believe in. He doesnt feel himself bound by this referendum. Let me, in that spirit of wondering what on earth is happening inside your party, and indeed what is going to happen to the divisions in the country, let us consider together what happens on i november. What happens to britain the day after brexit . I think we have to assume for the time being it is going to be a no deal brexit. The problem is that, oni november, the uk still will be in a protracted brexit crisis, because it will need to go back to the eu, argue for a comprehensive trade deal, trade agreement, and it wont get it unless it makes the concessions the eu demands, which will include some form of backstop in ireland, and which will include the payment of the £39 billion divorce bill. In which case we wont do a free trade deal with them, and guess whos damaged by that . The eu is. The uk. Yes, but the eu is disproportionately damaged. You know, i know a lot of politicians in Different Countries and i know very well, there was a very interesting man the other day, herr 0tto henkel, whos just retired as an mep, he is a german mep, and he made a really interesting speech in the european parliament. And he said to them, you know, the uk leaving the European Union is notjust some small country, he said. For us, its the equivalent of 19 or 20 of the smallest countries in europe theres only 27, remember, left after us, 19 or 20 of those, two thirds, leaving the European Union at once, he said the damage to the European Union economically, unless we resolve this now, will be dramatic and also psychologically, he said the blame lies with the commission, for failing to recognise that they need to do this. My point here is that if we were to leave without an arrangement, because the European Union decided they did not want to make an arrangement on any terms other than those theyve got at the moment, then they also must take the consequences of what happens next. What happens next is the loss of their markets. You need to face the consequences too. My argument there is another way of doing this. Hang on, i want tojust fix on the consequences, for you, your conservative party, and for Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Hes already made a whole host of promises about how much money hes going to spend post brexit on tax cuts, mainly for the wealthy, but also he wants new police, 20,000 of them, he wants new infrastructure, new railways. He is splashing the cash in his head. But the truth is, as the former chancellor Philip Hammond has pointed out, and office for budget responsibility, there will be no cash to spend in the context of a no deal brexit. So youre tying the hands with this no deal brexit, of your own conservative government. No, i dont believe that to be the case, for two reasons. First of all, i think it is wholly in the interest of the European Union, after we leave, immediately after we leave, which is to immediately strike a basic trade deal. My goodness, you are a man of faith, arent you . No, no, ive been to see mr barnier, and ive negotiated with him twice, separate to the government. I think i have some idea of where they are, and the truth is, right now they wont move. If they do move it would astonish me, before we leave. But whatll happen directly afterwards is, they have to make some kind of arrangement with the United Kingdom, because all the other countries whose jobs are at risk and Everything Else, will be demanding that they reach some kind of trade arrangement with us and they do it rather quickly. So the wto will allow for this in the arrangements post a breakup between two big parties like this. They allow for a period of stasis were you your arrangements out. You have a remarkable confidence about the post Brexit British economy. What about the post brexit state of the union . Your own conservative party leader in scotland, ruth davidson, says a no deal brexit would be a disaster. The latest opinion polls since borisjohnson came to power shows that the majority of scots now want independence. You, the conservative unionist party, are about to destroy the union. The thing that has been destroying beginning in getting close to it is the membership of the European Union. As you have sent time after time after time. Small nations and unions like this have used the European Union as a way of separating from the union. In our case, scotland has been attracted by the idea of the opinion was not to scare off and votes for independence . Of course i care. Do you care if the union is dismantled . Of course i care. They exist for only one thing, they dont run scotland, they exist for only one thing which is to separate from the United Kingdom. But the United Kingdom is their major marketplace and there are more scots around london then they are in scotland so we are bound together of 300 years, of course i care about that but i do also believe that you dont solve a problem like that by running scared from the very people that wish to break up the union. Were almost out of time, but a final thought. You exhibited a remarkable amount of confidence about britain and your party speech throughout this interview. Do you ever may they did not, think yourself, my gosh, what if im wrong . What if brexit is actually a hugely damaging event for the night again . Then i wouldnt be sitting here and saying what i said if i doubted for one moment that the uk is capable not only of leaving the European Union well, but at the end of the day, i believe uk is the most flexible economy on the planet. All the various economies, or method very clear, they come top of the league. Universities, four of the top universities out of the top ten. No other European University gets to the top ten. We are ready. What we want to make sure is that the interim period after is managed. I have no doubt the United Kingdom is a remarkable place, that will bounce straight back pretty quickly. Iain duncan smith, we have to end there. Thank you for being on hardtalk. Good morning. Yet again it was scotland and Northern Ireland that bore the brunt of the showers for wednesday. The area of low pressure that was responsible, thats now drifting off into the north sea, allowing this brief ridge of High Pressure to build before this deepening area of low pressure starts to push into the south west during the early hours of friday morning. And its going to stay with us friday, into the weekend as well. Heavy rain and gales are going to be a feature of the forecast. But, for the next few hours, weve still got a few showers through scotland and Northern Ireland in particular, and a little bit of patchy mist and fog forming in western areas. Elsewhere, well see long, lengthy clear spells, and temperatures falling down to a comfortable 11 13 degrees to greet us first thing on thursday morning. There will be some Early Morning sunshine, and generally thursday not a bad day for many. Some lengthy, dry prolonged spells around. We still cant rule out a few isolated showers into scotland, Northern Ireland, and maybe one or two into north wales and cropping up in the midlands. But, with some sunshine, well get some warmth. Highs of 2a degrees, thats 75 fahrenheit. But that low pressure is going to start to push into the south west during the early hours of friday morning, its going to bring some heavy rain and strong to Gale Force Gusts of wind, particularly on exposed south west coasts. So that rain at 1 00am will start to push its way up through cornwall, across wales, up into the midlands. So for the Early Morning rush hour, itll be leaving north wales, the north midlands, and itll be sitting across northern england. Dont forget the yellows and greens denoting the heavier pulses of rain. Some areas could see 20 30 mm before the morning is through. And, with the additional prolonged showers that weve seen, that could bring some localised flooding. So the frontal system clears to the north of scotland. Behind it, a trail of showers, and some blustery winds gusting in excess of 50 60 mph on exposed coasts in the south west. Eastern england will stay largely fine and dry. Still breezy, but 2a or 25 degrees is 77 fahrenheit. It will actually be quite a humid feel to things. Now, friday into saturday, well see that area of low pressure sitting across the extreme north. And the southern flank of that low is where were likely to see the strongest in the winds. So saturday, still plenty of frequent showers across scotland, Northern Ireland, north west england, and rainfall totals really starting to tot up, and therell be some gales further south, but still those highs of 22 degrees. The frontal system really not moving very far, very fast. That low pressure dawdles its way steadily eastwards. Weve still got plenty of showers with us on sunday, the best of the drier weather into the south. Take care. This is the briefing. Im sally bundock. Our top stories how to combat Climate Change Scientists Say its time to cut meat and dairy from our diets. President trump praises the emergency workers and survivors of saturdays Mass Shootings in el paso, but critics accuse him of stoking racial hatred. Growing fears of far right violence in germany. We meet some of the people and politicians whove been targeted. In fifth gear Ride Hailing Company lyft announce a 72 jump in revenues, but losses grow as well