Referendums then i would normally be inclined to be because i tend to think referendums put very complex questions in very simple terms, which is something we saw with the brexit referendum very vividly, when everybody was actually voting on a different topic and for Different Reasons to an apparently simple question but when you see Spanish Government resorting to the most repressive tactics to prevent the cata la n repressive tactics to prevent the catalan referendum happening, you think, well, there is a reason to do this after all and i were catalans and inclined to vote no, i might begin to think about voting yes because of it. Germany suggests an indifferent attitude to referendums, does that never resonate in germany . It does but more on a local or regional level but because it is a federal system, we have Something Like a popular vote on issues like closing down the station, for example, there has been referendums in the past, like inch tip there was a big thing about a station being built but there is generally a trust in the parliament. Hitler youth referendums and plebiscites as a way to stir up nazis and exploits the results. Yes, this is a functioning democratic system and gradually the parliament is in charge of taking these complex decisions and as we have seen the brexit, for example, such a complex historic question putting down to 5050, to historic question putting down to 50 50, toa historic question putting down to 50 50, to a nation, that actually, if it is true that the day after the referendum, the most common word searched for was european union, it might be doubtful whether it is a goodidea might be doubtful whether it is a good idea to hold a referendum this idea that parliament can decide some decisions are so fundamental that they must be left to people to make them because otherwise we cannot be sure they will have the authority and trust in the politicians making the decision for them, that tension between a Representative Democracy and that kind of democracy of the people is quite a difficult one to resolve. Additionally, weve always thought of referendums as being demagogues and they have turned out to be, the brexit referendum is the best example you can have of why referendums are monstrous. I think. Because you lost . No i dont think so. People might have changed their mind the next day anyway. It comes like a guillotine. Something that happens at one time, that nobody can rescind, that is nothing to be done about it. In Representative Democracy, you choose the people who are going to do the best they can within a certain ambit of political ideology. And there is flexibility and you can vote them out again. Time will come out, if they get it wrong, you can get rid of them. I do think, though, that a referendum for Self Determination is a different thing. A referendum for the scots off the cards or for the catalans the scots off the cards or for the catalans for the kurdish people. I think that is the only way, maybe at some point for the northern irish, who knows . I think that the idea of trying to stop people expressing who they think they are asa expressing who they think they are as a nation, and that a simple question, i think thats quite a different sort of referendum to me once, say, the mad ones you have in california. There were 17 Ballot Initiatives in california last year and a complex questions that then nobody was able to wade through and understand, for example, one Ballot Initiative counteracted another one and so it became not an exercise in direct democracy but in confusion. I agree that referendums can make very complex questions into reductive yes no answers, which do not really fit. Im not sure. I mean, the referendum is the only peaceful way to choose just termination. To choose Self Determination. From what i know if the kurdish referendum, i mean, the kurds are, like the palestinian, historically stateless people, there is no question that there is a kurdish nation, linguistic, cultural thing, but it is divided among other countries and turkey has said, if you vote yes, we will block your oil pipeline because turkey is in a state of civil war with its own to mackin has been for years. There are internal politics and demagoguery going on there because i know thats its not popular with certain voters. The president of kurdistan . That result was clear, 93 in favour. Of course theyre going to vote for independence. How can the internet . They cannot. Referendums do not take place in a vacuum, when it comes to nationhood with south sudan, for example, that was something with un backing, a framework internationally for Something Like that to happen and in these cases, you do not have that. |j have these cases, you do not have that. have heard this argument before, if referendums polarise people into this or that cant and never the twain shall meet, is the argument if you have referendums, they have more than one question, they might dissipate some of this if you had multi question referendums . M doesnt make it much easier. You would still have a lot of complexity in it. Youre still going to have people very often, by the time you get to the day of voting, they are actually voting on different sorts of issues, for instance, we had the referendum on the alternative vote system. You would think it was a no brainer, you said your electorate, would you like a little more choice in your Voting System . And the people who were against it, mostly the conservatives who would possibly be the losers out of a constitutional change, managed to persuade people that they didnt wa nt persuade people that they didnt want more choice. That they wouldnt rather put a one, two, three, order on the ballot paper. Because they we re on the ballot paper. Because they were told, it was going to, politics was going to cost a lot more money, billions of pounds would be wasted on elections. It was all absolute nonsense. Also, people wanted to get their own back on the liberal democrats, who they thought, it was a fix of errors. It became about a whole lot of different things. Afterwards, used to back in court, this is extraordinary, people are offered more choice and they say, no thank you. And you know something has gone badly wrong one choice but to little simpler was the outcome in germany, where Angela Merkel was re elected as chancellor. She is now linked to have been in office for 12 yea rs linked to have been in office for 12 years and will be for another four. It has left with few options for forming a government. The social democrats, who came second, say they wont continue in coalition with mrs merkels cdu. She couldnt stomach working with the next Largest Party alliance for germany, the far right which won 12 per cent of the vote. As for the free democrats and the green party, who together could secure her a parliamentary majority, theres little on which they agree. The chancellor has already dumped her finance minister, apparently to please them. French president Emmanuel Macrons ambition to re shape the eurozone depends on german support, and such a coalition might not give it. Stephanie, same leader but how much changes as a result of this election result . It should have been a celebration for Angela Merkel. How much will this change . Of course it was not the result she hoped for, she said that strategically we have achieved our goal because i am back in office but, as you say, it is going to be a very bumpy time now because there is only one option and this is the so called Jamaica Coalition between the cpo, so called Jamaica Coalition between the cfo, the liberals and the greens. But it is going to take quite some time to form this coalition. The tarmac. 60 of germans want this coalition. So there is quite a lot of pressure on there is quite a lot of pressure on the government. The cdu. There is quite a lot of pressure on the government. The cdu. They feel there has been too much compromising. Youll especially the greens, who are pro eu and in the sense of what the bavarians dont like. More money to southern states, so its going to be very difficult but other thing that will put pressure on them is the afd, the right wing party. So, ithink pressure on them is the afd, the right wing party. So, i think there isa right wing party. So, i think there is a sense in germany that the need to form a coalition, a solid one, soon, because the majority have in mind 80 of the people did not vote for afd, they see us as a threat. Maria, in terms of how it is perceived in the rest of europe, as mentioned, Emmanuel Macron this very ambitious plan to reshape, certainly the eurozone part of the eu. Britain will have left the eu anyway, that might make things a bit simpler in 18 months or so, is that made less likely by what is happening in germany . I dont know. Who knows what is going to happen in the eu . The right of the md is of a piece into what string to happen all over europe, we have been seeing far right parties gaining support and we have been seeing this revolt against the consensus, that has become this kind of big lump in the centre left and centre right, which is neoliberal economics, globalised economy, etc. My worry is that europe is going to perhaps restructure itself internally but close its borders more firmly outside. The first thing macron talked about in his speech was defence, security, borders. And of course, i merkel was damaged in part by her approach to immigration domestically. To me, that policy was the bright spot in a shockingly bad response by europe to the refugee crisis. But she paid a price for it. These are difficult things to work out but i do not want to see a fortress europe bordered with military defence against the rest of the world but nevertheless more comfortable inside. Is that more likely, stephanie . Will Angela Merkel adopt that approach in order to write the two horses of her coalition . Yes, and of course that is what she has been doing. In 2015, there were 12,000 people daily coming into the bavaria. Now this has stopped, why has it stop . Because in the balkans, the borderers have been going up and also because external borders are more secure and also because it is a deal with turkey and miracle has been travelling to north african country to find a way to stop it. And i think there should be no delusion about it. It couldve been worse with the afd, if not, other countries might have helped Angela Merkel by stopping the flow of migrants. Do you see, polly toynbee, asa migrants. Do you see, polly toynbee, as a result of this, and given that ina as a result of this, and given that in a sense you might be getting less fractious if britain leaves because it has always been a sort of relu cta nt it has always been a sort of reluctant eu member, do you see the task could be easier or harder for Angela Merkel . Well, she remains the key figure. She and macron together, one shouldnt forget that its a great relief that both of them are there as the stabilising factor in europe. All of these fringe nationalistic extreme right parties have been essentially defeated. They didnt win in france, in holland, in germany. Not this time, though. At one point in britain, ukip115 of the vote, just because we have a different electoral system, they didnt get a single mp. But theyre still very much on the margins and i dont think we should be overly obsessed, the great majority of europeans remain a decent anti racist, anti extremist and i dont see an imminent move to change the essential values of europe, which sadly, britain is leaving. But we should be a part of that. Which sadly, britain is leaving. But we should be a part of that which sadly, britain is leaving. But we should be a part of that. A quick point, i agree with you but i think, looking only at germany, also will be called liberal centre, has moved more to the right, also in the german election, that is why i do not think the policy of open borders from germany can continue. I cant talk for other countries but this is a no go because the long price that might be paid for this is too big. But do you think that if it changes, it will actually mean that britain need never have left europe because they themselves, i mean, if it was anti immigration that caused our referendum result, do you think the rules will change so much within europe that actually we will say, why on earth did we ever leave . think it is going to be far too short to change until march, 2019, when this country is out anyway. And open borders is about people coming outside of europe and there is not as much objection with inter eu migration the way there was here in this country. Im not sure that that would solve. A lot of that was very confused, fear that those outside europe would eventually come through the borders and come to us. It was a much more anti muslim, to put it crudely, feeling, than it was really anti polish or east europeans. I think, i agree really anti polish or east europeans. Ithink, i agree with stephanie that the danger is not so much that is far right parties will ta ke much that is far right parties will take power but that their rhetoric and thinking seeps into what used to be the centre right parties and move the whole spectrum to the right and i think that is happening. In europe, we also have to very right wing governments, hungary, poland, czech republic, so, the issue is really how to manage this, so that it does not infect the whole system. But i also dont think it is only about immigration. I really dont think the far right right is only about immigration and racism. Think the far right right is only about immigration and racismm terms of Angela Merkels position, she had been regarded as the most powerful force in europe she had been regarded as the most powerfulforce in europe in politics, if she is weakened, what are the locations of that, notjust within europe, but internationally, given that germany is taking more of an internationalist role in recent yea rs. An internationalist role in recent years. She was once described to me at the queen of europe and akram is now tarnished. In terms of keeping the grand coalition together or keeping domestically everything on site, it was easier until the refugee crisis sparked a fragmentation, this unfortunate seeping into the far right, and that means shes going to have to take ca re of means shes going to have to take care of her backyard and implement with macron a wider european vision, which is pretty much on the rocks at the moment. Even macron at home will not necessarily want to put some of vision through. So, i think she is quite weak and i mean something for europe, more than just quite weak and i mean something for europe, more thanjust germany. Quite weak and i mean something for europe, more than just germany. That ido europe, more than just germany. That i do think this sense of a loss of identity and loss of culture is not just about immigration and foreigners coming in, it is also about the decline of the old communities, industrialisation, it is about what has happened all over europe for economic and political reasons and notjust because of foreigners coming in. Germany had been thought to be a country that had kind of got the balance right. That it had had a sense of confidence about its social system, that people felt there was a german identity and leaving aside the nationals in question, they were comfortable. In general, that is true but as we see with the result of afd, this is very much a western german phenomenon. They do not see this in the east. Cultural and economic reasons, but in germany this historic reasons as well, they follow the communism, socialism, the people left behind in north of england are the equivalent of east germans. People who could not benefit from the capitalist system. This is where you have to pick up these people and bring them in but this is the big challenge and this is also why there is a sense of urgency in germany to fight the a nswer to urgency in germany to fight the answer to this now to find the answer, because it has an effect on germany and europe because of Angela Merkel cabu quickly, she will not be able to do much about europe and there is a lot of, as you said, macron is desperate, the clock is ticking for him. And she could be spending months forming a government . Theoretically, but there isa government . Theoretically, but there is a sense that this needs to be done by christmas. Where have we heard that before . And then breaks it is low on the agenda, of course. We think is the most important thing in the german elections germans generally like to hug the Centre Ground in politics. Which makes the rise of the afd all the more dramatic. Tony blair persuaded Britains Labour Party that it was only possible to win power by occupying the Centre Ground. Back then, Jeremy Corbyn was a sceptic, a fringe figure on the left, convinced a majority could still be won by persuading voters to shift his way. 20 years on, and tony blair is the embarrassing relic of labour past and corbyn the party leader. In this years general election, mr corbyn did much better than many had predicted, and on wednesday he told his partys annual conference that the next election could see his dream delivered. Polly, Jeremy Corbyn says the Centre Ground shifts, and its shifted his way. Hasit . Lam not i am not sure of the concept of the ce ntre i am not sure of the concept of the centre being very useful because in the end you have a binary system, a tory party in total disarray led by somebody that none of their own party like very much, and so, its a question of which is least worst and i think that is what the last election was about. But there is no doubt that he has won 40 of the vote with a manifesto that was extremely popular. The moment it was published, the Public Opinion polls changed, he had been 11 points behind and suddenly he was really up there as a contender. People are very much in favour of bringing back our appalling rail system, the disaster of the privatisation of utilities is now being exposed as what a mistake that are made on that, everything there really has beena that, everything there really has been a change of attitude. Whether people would call themselves very left wing, i dont know. But it was pragmatic, retail politics, Promising Students they would get free tuition and promising all the people they would get bigger pensions than they have ever had. It was an Old Fashioned private rae election, in a way you like and right and left a relative terms. There will always be a shift in the centre. This tory government, under cameron, was one of the most radical in terms of the cuts that it was implementing, we had not seen austerity cuts like that any generation, so that pull the country a direction, but we do not talk about that much talked aboutJeremy Corbyn pulling at the other way, towards what might actually have been the centre at the time, so, i actually think that things have shifted and the rhetoric has shifted in this country. Stephany, when you look at this as an outsider, trying to explain this to readers in germany, do you see something similar in terms of a kind of Centre Ground moving . You were talking about it moving to the right in germany, is it moving to the left in britain . Is that your perception . you look at the polls, obviously it is moving to the left. But i also was at the Party Conference in brighton and especially at these fringe meetings, people were talking about the revolution, about a clear break, that you cannot reform this country, you have to have a clear break country, you have to have a clear brea k towards country, you have to have a clear break towards socialism. And i can understand why people find the ideas of labourfar more understand why people find the ideas of labour far more better, understand why people find the ideas of labourfar more better, they are fair, there are so much social injustice, especially for the young generation, it is the public to the future, they cannot afford their own property, they do not how they can live when theyre old, that is scary for the Younger Generation and that is something we are not experiencing in germany yet, so i struggle to grasp this shift to the left in this country but i can understand it. You have always had people on the fringes of the labour party about revolution. But it is kind of the ma nifesto, revolution. But it is kind of the manifesto, thats a big difference no, the. Actually, corbins labour party, in terms of labour history is quite conservative in labour tradition, it was tony blair who was the radical, who shifted the party way off its original base and what corbin is talking about is taxing people in order to have a good welfare state, which is what the labour party was all about. Tony blair suggested not win if you did that because britain had changed. is worth remembering, people forget, tony blairs manifesto in 1997, which he won, was incredibly radical. He had a £5 billion windfall tax just radical. He had a £5 billion windfall taxjust ripping money off in the utilities because they had been so badly privatised. But he had a whole series of very radical policies and now people regard him as, iraq war tony blair, people forget. Does that suggest it isjust about how you dress this thing up because he was doing radical stuff but saying we are very responsible and serious and getting away with it, Jeremy Corbyn husein were doing radical stuff and we will see if he does, if he becomes by minister, and he is just picked does, if he becomes by minister, and he isjust picked up the public mood isa he isjust picked up the public mood is a bit more sympathetic to that. think so, i think this was an Old Fashioned bribery manifesto. He said he would not raise anybodys taxes except the top 5 , well, thats impossible with the sorts of things that he wants to do. I think it was quite traditional, in terms of, here is something for everybody and nobody has to pay for it. In britain and around europe, describing things as left or right can be misleading because macron is somewhere in the centre but for france this is radical, it is about change and many people feel that direction to wrong, whether you call it right or left, or beyond that, people want to reverse course or feel that the present cost that they are on is not the right one. Thank you all very much. Fascinating stuff, some big issues raised there, importing countries and we will talk more about those on this programme at the same time next week. Thats it for dateline for this week were here at the same time next week. Goodbye. Hello there. We are in for a pretty mixed forecast through the course of the weekend. Some sunshine to start us off, heres the view this morning, taken in County Antrim by one of our weather watchers, with some beautiful blue skies there. Thicker cloud further south across the country, though. So, this is the scene in burnley, lancashire, at the moment, where weve got some big showers, a beautiful rainbow there. Showers are fading away, though, from parts of north west england. That unsettled weather that weve got on the cards is all down to the fact that weve got low pressure approaching from the atlantic, particularly during sunday and monday, bringing pretty windy weather. Lets look at saturday outbreaks of rain across parts of wales, the south west of england, pushing their way gradually eastwards. Further north, though, for northern england, Northern Ireland, and scotland, its a story of sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Not too many showers across scotland, but there could be the odd heavy one in central and northern parts. For Northern Ireland, though, youre in for quite a good day. Dry weather here, 1a or 15 degrees and a similar picture across much of southern scotland, into northern england, with showers easing away towards the east. Further south, across england, cloudier skies, perhaps brightness for the likes of east anglia, down towards kent too, but still some showers for the south coast and more persistent rain working in across wales and the south west of england later in the day. That area of rain, quite breezy conditions too, moves eastwards through the course of tonight. For a time, we will see clear skies for scotland and Northern Ireland and temperatures dipping. But through the early hours of sunday, thats when more cloud arrives from the west, bringing outbreaks of rain and a strengthening breeze too. So, for most of us, a mild start to the day on sunday but you will certainly notice the strength of the breeze. Particularly as this area of rain, this frontal system, pushes its way gradually further eastwards. Quite a bit of dry and perhaps even bright weather in eastern parts but the heaviest of the rain will be over the hills of wales, north west england and scotland too, with the weather front moving eastwards. It will be followed by sunshine and scattered showers later in the day for the northwest, with temperatures generally in the mid teens. The windy spell of weather continues into monday, as low pressure just sits to the north of the uk, with some really tight isobars around that area of low pressure, particularly windy on monday across parts of scotland, we could see gusts of 70 mph, pretty windy too further south with that mix of sunny spells and heavy, blustery showers, it is feeling pretty autumnal. Bye for now. This is bbc news. The headlines at 12pm. Ahead of the conservative Party Conference tomorrow, borisjohnson again intervenes in the brexit debate. Laying out his four redlines that theresa may mustnt cross teachers and nurses in england and wales could have the 1 cap on their pay rises lifted next year. The treasury admits it needs to be more flexible where there are skill shortages. The archbishop of canterbury has criticised the way the bbc handled sexual abuse byjimmy savile. The most serious animal cruelty offences could soon be punished with up to five years in jail instead of six months. And at 12. 30 click looks at all things battery, from how to keep your smartphone charged to the mountain storing energy in lakes. Good afternoon and welcome to bbc news
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