Hello welcome to the program i am. How should my butler, the wrong spot on to read actions looks set to be a major test for the government wide and to stop has been candidates on to expect to to in many seats and low voter turnout could indicate extensive discontent into 1022 of the country it was blocked by mass protest, and many of money is still cooling for reforms. So how is the government responding and what lies ahead for these . Let me quit public with go to our panel in just a moment. First, vincent on, on has this report iran is electing a new parliament, but some in the capital to iran or disillusion. They dont believe their vote will make a difference so much. I started to shake. Id never go now. Im not going to vote because my experience from the previous result was not good. I dont think ill choose anyone. I cant see anything new or any new statements. Theyre all just the same. Old slogans on the terry must have. The biggest problem is peoples lack of trust in the effectiveness of parliament, governments and says, there are plenty of choices. However, all candidates are vested in advance, and some politicians who paper reform say theyre borrowed from running other than that, oh yes. How are you this hello. Yeah, 2 of the final number of qualified candidates was about 15000 people from the 20000 to registered. And naturally the rest of all those who were disqualified or ineligible according to our countrys laws. The committee uranium one change in 2022 mass protests took place nationwide after young woman died in police custody. Mazda meaning had been arrested for allegedly violating the district dress code for women. This prompted demands for reform, the sum even calling for an end to these logic republic. The government clamped down on protest and since passed even tougher penalties for ignoring the dress code. A visa a betty is one of a handful of performance candidates who made it on the ballot. She says problems stem from women be excluded from influential positions for more. So to get the issue where youre fine on to, you know, women older, very active society hold very small share of power. They will have access to positions of secondary importance, such as counsellors, a deputy minister for womens affairs. It is the man who make the decisions even when the concerned women. With many reformist voices either disqualified or void, calling the vote, turn out is expected to be an important factor. If voters stay home, it could be assigned the establishment is losing popularity. Then monahan al jazeera for inside story. The best way you know, guys joining us from the hold on is how much not on the side of the diversity of to have on, on the run in political and us inventories. Roxanne fall on from my end, profess of international relations, and were the middle east bought it to of the university of cambridge in just a little we are joined by i dont the light on it right in of fast on ice. And chief executive will couple a think tank focused on the me, the east. Welcome to the program. What kind of the like to ask you about a general sentiment that this election could perhaps be one of the most delicate moments for the political establishment in iran since these logic revolution . 1979. How accurate is this characterization . Im not really sure because ever since i was a teenager during election times, they would say this is one of the most sensitive moments in the revolutionary period. So its difficult to say, obviously the elections are important of the Current Administration, if the president wants to be re elected, if he has to be seen as having strong support, if he fails to games, took support, he could lose the election next year, especially since the economy isnt doing very well. Of course, his political opponents of uh, like present, real jaime, and his people, they, people still dont have great memories of the economy during that period. So it is a certain moment where people see the Current Administration is not performing extraordinarily well and the Previous Administration not being very successful. But uh, well see, its difficult to say what will happen at this age ro, side and many people are close to the monitoring the election this time uh, waiting to see how many people would show up of the about its why is the turnout voter turnout is very important this time. Well, i think we can look back at, but it was like 4 years ago at the previous election, it was down 42 to 42 percent this time, but the latest polls are expecting about 41 percent, which certainly implies that the majority are not coming to be, to cast their votes. I think its a combination of both a very bad economy and a period of feeling. And so theyre not part of the political momentum that the leadership is taking a direction quite different than that that the paul populace is feeling. And so theres a certain degree of feeling that they are not, no matter how much they vote, they will not be engaged in improving their situation. And so i think theres a great deal of despondency involved. On the other hand, i think its also become very concerned that the leadership itself does not really care whether the population is voting or not. They dont see it as a implication on their own legitimacy. How should we . Ive done this is my question to how should we analyze a no vote to turn out if you have is this time in this election . Is it this content with the political establishment in general or just with a behavioral i say, or is it mainly because people dont trust that the government is going to improve that live in standards . Look, i believe we should, we should look at it as a the way that we would look at it anywhere else. You have the trends, you have as works on our side periods of a time in which there is more satisfaction or content among the broader population with the state of affairs of the country. There is a period in which people have, have increasing the, the feeling they kept, that they can shape politics and the country through elections. And i think it is fair to say that currently, um we are in a period or in a downward trend in that respect that there is not much enthusiasm about elections. This has to do with all sorts of different grievances. This also may have to do with the way that candidates, or the political establishment as a whole, hasnt managed to or failed to create that enthusiasm about political competition in a way that creates more of a mold or 3rd turn out. So in that respect we are currently and certainly in the low how much would you expect a voter turnout similar to what happened last to the past election in the sense that is what is going to be no way of incentives and major cities high in rural areas all the dana, dana diagnostics could shift any time, so it is always lower in the city like 10 wrong. Because the natural law in my opinion is deeply slot. For example, if i vote tomorrow, i will have to fill the 30 names for parliament and for another account. So i choose it as the leader 16. So i have to fill in 46. 00 names for the whole city. And im, i can small cities where i have a relationship with the m p. I know who my m. P is. He comes to my street or to my local school or to a local mosque or wherever. And i can meet him in his office and can run with there is no connection between the, the individual and the candidate or the elected parliamentary. And we have the same problem in major cities as well. But in tap on it is the most difficult, and its also very time consuming. If you really sit down and write all the names, you could be there for quite a long time. And then the people in front of you have to do it. So you may be standing in 2 for hours just to cast a vote. Thats why parliamentary elections any ronda turn out, is usually significantly lower than president ial elections because it presents for the president. You just go in, give you a, give the name and then do you leave . So its traditionally the iran, based upon them entry elections are between 42 and a 60 percent. It ranges the lowest as your previous guess, pointed out those 4 years ago. I dont believe that everyone in the political or, or the political establishment of large doesnt want to see a high turn out. But i think a major issue any ron, according to polls me by far, is the economy. Thats number one. Number 2, number 3, number 4 in different ways its express and uh, the because of the sanctions, but also because of a policy and that has mismanagement. The economy hasnt been doing well for maybe a decade now. And mr. A see when he 1st came in, there was optimism that he would be able to bring about change so far. Although i these last year at the economic, the economy grew significantly, but people dont feel any change. They continue to feel, but the situation is not good. So its sort of like what was one said in the United States. Its the economy, stupid as they would. Ready but again, and thats also true, by the way, for us elections, the president ial election em us to turn out is much higher, but the Congressional Elections are usually in the thirties and forties asana. Is it fair to say that this is going to be purely mainly just about economy and the growing discontent among people because of the increasing inflation, the sanctions that have been biting into the economy for quite some time . Is it just purely an economic issue here . Well, its certainly the economy thats the most of the media thats on peoples minds and the currency has just been dropping against the dollar. For example, quite substantially over the last 7 weeks. And the result of a, a downward trend is that more and more people are falling under the poverty line. And so these are immediate concerns. Its very difficult to find and more of goods in the, in the markets that are, are, you know, affordable people are really struggling. Theyre holding 2 jobs. So i think were seeing the translation of what in the past. Certainly could have been an argument that it was both a political and economic set of issues translating into becoming primarily economic because of the immediacy of this isnt done in a, in the we, when people are frustrated with the performance of government, likely because he indicates, as a is an inflation which is standing up 50 percent, the High Consumer prices and the how the flattening cover. And so you would assume that people would to take that and to was that lead us. But while we seeing basically is that ultimately the conservative was didnt have a biggest say in the next parliament. And the conservatives are likely to continue just to further consider dates that political gains. Does he make sense . You could obviously say that the elections are one way to interact with the state. And you can, of course, if youre discontent with the state of affairs and you have the feeling that engaging in collections and finding someone who represents or stands for the things that matter to you. And then you have the opportunity to change it to take this opening or this an offer by the state structure, so to speak, to participate. And in fact, make sure that people are a little bit out that you no longer want to see in there. And this has happened quite often in the past 4 decades of this, i mean for public. But as i said earlier, current lease, this doesnt seem to be necessarily need the case. There is a lack of representation for some of the topics and grievances that people have. They certainly have primarily to do with the Economic Issues that were already mentioned. But theyre obviously also cultural, social and political grievances where we see of a lack of representation or a lack of candidates that would be an incredible fashion and body, the grievances that people have or address them properly. So therefore, we are currently seeing that this engagement or withdrawal so to speak from, from those who are not satisfied with the current state of affairs, how much is the vetting process by the Guardian Council . The a major problem here because ultimately when you look at the list of the candidates who look at the environment itself, youve got a clear sense of the choices choices narrow in here. In iran. It is always a debate and it is a problem. But i think it is important to keep in mind that the United States, the data, especially in 2009 in western countries trying to interfere in the writing elections into and especially in 2009 and the pressure and media which is funded by the west and base in the west has always tried to influence the elections in one way or another, either by telling people to vote in a certain way or not to vote in a certain way or not to vote at all or attacking particular people. So, when the United States in 2016, at least one of the many in the political establishment claimed that russia, what was interesting in your selections you had for years of time says so. So its in the political establishment and in the United States, in the case of you run the United States as a much larger power than a run in the, in the west. When it interferes any runs, it creates greater caution. So the system begins to become more cautious. It is more cautious about certain candidates who have connections abroad or with certain Political Parties abroad. So the United States and europeans, if, if theyre sincere about democracy and theyre not, i mean, genocide and gods. And i think as expos, everything, but if they were since hear about democracy, the 1st thing that they would do would be to stop interfering. And iranian internal affairs. And then i think you would automatically see things opened up as we saw in 2009 roecat debates. It was a really fantastic environment until after the elections and then we have riots and were still were still experiencing the consequences of that in. Okay, im always ross on the that can send by the political establishment just to find disqualifying the independence, the liberals, the centrist members of the reform coalition, to the point where people are saying that this to just tilting the ground for the conservative to take over once again, well i think 2 things are going on at the my way to the 1st place. This is a, a double election. This is an election for the assembly of experts as well, which comes around every 8 years. And that is the assembly that will be quite probably responsible for choosing or uh, being part of the choosing of the next uh Supreme Leader because the supreme later comedy is uh, hes elderly and hes ill. And so the chances of him making it past the next 8 years are diminishing. So its a, an opportunity for the conservatives to put into place. I think people that the current leadership feels are responsible and that they can count on and that are part of their in groups that will be able to then um, according to their, a remit choose somebody or a group of people that will run the country in the future, and thats a major change in, in the countries um next uh, future steps. And i think that the 2nd point that i wanted to make what a country is looking at a major structural change. And weve seen this in many Different Countries is not just a new ron, the entire system goes into a point of being less flexible, being um, focused on trying to set the tell them for the next stage. And so it is focus much, much less on bringing in different people bringing in experiments of approach. And i think were seeing that stratification very much any ron at the moment. While at the same time, the conservatives are trying to consult date and take out the unpredictability for their next step, and none of what future lives that have for the a position when they see themselves. Basically ejected from this practice. And the conservatives the consider dating back with on the on paula in iran. And let me 1st ask what position you mean . Are you referring to, lets say opposition factions with any of on that are trying to is yeah. Transaction. Yeah. The se, in particular, a m. Yeah, look at, i think its, its quite clear that the, the, lets say the reformist and moderate moderate factions, part of their demise if we want to put it this way, have to do with the disqualifications with the unfair political environment in many respects. But part of it is also due to their performance, and i would go as far as to say that even if less of their candidates have been disqualified, i am not even sure that they would have been able or that they would be able to mobilize the constituents, in a similar way that we didnt see that in the past president ial election or before that the parliamentary election. So i think what, what really needs to happen in the, lets say, reform is the mater. Its kim. There are still a remnants of that that are competing in tomorrows elections. But of course its a very, very weak and political, a group that needs to, to put its act together to generate a new generation. In fact. And of course, the political establishment has to open up, has to allow more space for them to, to have these new generation of politicians. And let me also very briefly come to the point that was referred to earlier by both mohammed and iraq, santa, which is. And in fact, we are dealing with a very securitized political context. You to a transition phase in terms of potential future succession. But also because of the, the high tension that exists between the wrong and external actors. And that leads to this closed political space for a car increasing how much say, assistance ive done. I talked about the rising tension in the region particular between the americans and, and the everybody is, is putting policy an issue that could the, the shape of the outcome of the election. Weve seen Senior Iranian officials, including kindly harmony, basically saying that the warning cause is a reason why they have you have to show up in math and those in this election. Yes, what i should point out, but he is quite healthy, but to be the collections for the the council of experts as they call it, they choose as the leader of course are very important. But yes, Foreign Policy too is key at the moment because the region is experiencing with pay a major crisis. And we will probably see an expansion of the war, whether its in the high square, the genocide will become worse or this way the wishing me in order to escape defeat. They will expand the war into lab and on and carry out their atrocities there. And of course, the run is the only government internationally recognized government that is supporting the resistance and gaza, the resistance and the non and the government and sign on and so on. So for a run, it is a very sensitive moment to that, and it is very important for iran to be seen as a strong. And for example, the, during the anniversary of the revolution, there was a large turn out, and that was the, the leaders, the leaders and the private in to misspeak or parliament. And everyone was calling people to come to the streets because they felt that a huge presence on the streets of camera on would be sending a message to the west. The problem that we have in this region is that we dont live in a normal region. We live in a region where the United States and thats how i live, manipulates, they turn countries against one another, they and they, they destroy, and the supports genocide. So for a wrong to be seen strong internally is very important. However, i should stress that parliamentary elections any wrong if theres a turn out, lets say, a roughly 50 percent. That would be considered a good under the circumstances. But in general, parliamentary elections, as i said earlier, have a turn out that are less than the president ial elections. And as i said in particular, i mean your cities in particularly run their turn out is always going to be low because of the part of the country. He had the, the system of election that they for imposed where you have to vote for tens of people, literally a roxan of those who are all going to take part in the election. And those who would stay decide to stay away. To what extent, with the warning does have the potential for a while and to be drawn into a major confrontation with United States of america. Be a fact to that could decide whether to go and vote or stay at home. I dont think its a huge factor ice as i, i think discuss the economy is much more immediate. I think the element of being engaged in a government that might make a difference if theyve voted. I dont think people feel that they have any control and that their vote will deliver any real benefits. I think the element of casa and the region is actually more important to the leadership. And its because of an interesting paradox thats taking place briefly that iran is in many ways because its of its support for palestinians and palestine speaking very much to the error of the street. So were seeing it throughout the region that runs messages, resonating with the, with the populations that whos on leadership are actually approaching the situation rather differently. And yet, interestingly, its the bronze population that is not supporting its own government that much. So we, we see a dichotomy here, and i think thats where that issue was playing out rather than really affecting peoples choices to go to the pulse. And then i will send a one point briefing, what happens . Yes, good to please go ahead. Go ahead. So i, i agree that the main issue is the economy. Thats absolutely correct. But polls any rotten also show that the iranians overwhelmingly support the people or palestine and gaza and the support the wrong supporting them. There is a division. Any ronnie about that . But the Strong Majority do support the ross policy in that regard. But it doesnt give the government an excuse to for the performance and obviously not briefly if you dont mind the assembly of ex best, but hes going to be also a elect to the 88. The see, some of the body is going to be a crucial moment. Is it going to be the next assembly to this slide . The next success of the supreme data . I mean, look at its, and its kind of, its not going to be, is that one critical moment, but its definitely going to be important in the sense that it is another in another step in a certain direction. Its very, very difficult to say what the formal process process processes will be like once should that be to define the decision about the future of the supreme, the just position. And it is clear just to, to say that of course, it is a very sensitive time, and it is important to make sure that the people are chosen into this assembly. This is the governments view or the establishment view. Then people are represented in this, in this body that will be able to shape the country in the direction that is in line with the political establishment, thoughts. So there is, there is more real questions. No real risk allowed, no real and arbitrary and it shouldnt be left there. This is obviously far too sensitive. How many bonded locks on a 5 month on my end, and id non profit. I really appreciate you inside looking forward to talking to you in the future. Thank you. It was like you to watch it. You can see the program again, any time by visiting our website and jesse raw, dot com for further discussion. Go to our facebook page. Thats facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. You can also join the conversation on x, all 100 is at a j inside study from the house you model. And the whole team here in doha bye for now. The stuff ation is being used as a what the only way to stop. So im going to cost ation is to allow you then people are surrounding it. Sparks go with the flow are just hard to break it and show us the level of difficulty because of the shortage of humanitarian aid. We have no blanket, no food, and no room to. I prefer the desk to this humiliation. Moore is not killed us yet. It seems that we will die of hunger and cant find food. People say that theyre stuck between death, star bases and displacement. The the President Biden says once a 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis. What does anybody believe its doable . What this is real for . Im gonna say it back to us Foreign Policy and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world . A quizzical look at us politics, the bottom line instead of these cries, its good, its been debt silence. If it wasnt for grandmother and had a seal of a, how was a neighbor after midnight trying to get to a hospital includes is really me to 3 check point student. No, i wasnt. There is a lot of men waited on whats my fear for the baby was stronger, but not every story has it positive and through last day it shows us her daughters birth certificate next to the death certificate on the same day in 2003 soldiers asked her to sit quietly. She started shouting, i gave birth, followed by silence. And then another shot. I think she died just a few hours ago. These really ministry installed this case at the entrance to the village. Mother is about to give for the music to go to the hospital. Like no, no which gate is open and which one is closed . The israel is facing global condemnation of the killing more than a 100 palestinians while they were connecting the hello on this cause, hey, this is out of the red light from dont also coming and is really as try. Heres a School Housing displaced out of stands and southern and also killing 3 people. At least 45 people are killed in a fight as a 6 Story Building involved with that she has counseling dot com