A higher price to pay if you have a sweet tooth. Price is a soaring chocolate make, has a feeding the hungry call to employees close to half of indias workforce, but generates less than 20 percent of g d. P. Millions of small hold of farmers who have seen the yields and incomes full, demanding support from the government. Prime minister and run the movie needs the vote soon as he seeks to extend his decade in office, but keeping them happy. Well, thats been a challenge. Actual time of age reports engulfed into your gas. These farmers have been marching to new delhi, demanding guaranteed across the prices are request, the government refuses to give them, but it is the duty of the government that they should give us minimum support price. We are demanding minimum support price for 23. 00 crops. If they agree to it, entire nation will be prosperous. Our entire families will be employed. For weeks, farmers across india had been taken to the streets. They are unhappy with the conditions provided by the government, despite their peaceful protests theyve been met with resistance. Farming is the backbone to feed these economy employees more than half the nations workforce. People like death, are seeking a guarantee the minimum price, at least 50 percent above production costs to make enough for living 50. 00 the but all of a cut. The problem in farming is high input costs, sometimes not from calamities also lead to low yields. We dont get the appropriate price for our crops, which leads to major losses because we have to then take a lot of farming is no longer profitable to out of the dispute began in 2020, with a law in that the modernizing farming by removing middleman and fixed prices, which farmers say benefits to large corporations to a year long stand off like to Prime Minister and then into a movie for appealing the law. Despite promises to double their salaries, their financial conditions have worse and after the laws will be drawn in 2021, the demands were not met. So the on back those 2 months, they are demanding something as simple as a simply getting the features and the speed which is minimum support price at which the government buys the cops, which means they are off or just in the short info for themselves, a kind of a safety net unions are also the magic law and favors for Small Farmers and a minimum wage for agricultural workers. The government says its open to negotiations. Peace on sunday. No, because on the efforts will continue to speak to the farmers unions, constructive and post the matter. We are ready to hold dialogue with them that these protests are taking place as india is preparing for National Elections by the end of the month. Some say they could potentially affect Prime Minister bodies, re election access. Im gonna reach out to 0 for accounting, the cost. Well, joining us now from new data in india is jaya and chris. Now hes a senior fellow and us in the a policy studies at the center for strategic and international studies. Good to have you with us. All farmers right to demand high, a guaranteed crop prices. See from farmers perspective uh you know, their, their, their lights in demanding that like but lets understand, you know, too much. Busy of the one is that theyre talking about all the crops to come under the minimum support price. Theyre designed misspeak. And which is uh, theyre talking about a 50 percent profit, owns the cost of production, and which is also in line. But uh, you know, the, the notice that signed is the m. S for me not to him. So comedy that accommodations based on the old 1. 00 times of the cost of production should be the minimum support price board for dogs before the key drops. You know what i dont think uh, you know, uh, it may be wise to do that. Lets understand india on almost in india, almost 86 percent of them are small and marginal farmers, you know, and they do not tend to get been impacted by. It must be as much as the large bummer skills do. I think uh too much of protection under uh, but it must be extended to on crops, which is already there for we didnt buy the but we extended to all of the crops to my mind if we start a, you know, Market Forces. And also what were dis, disregard the demand and supply situation. We dont do much of protection and what it must be will lead to some crops like, you know, having a great sort of own production. And that would be a shortage off of, you know, other of green. So, you know, what am i, what im trying to say is diane willie, lead to price increases and inflation in food prices for consumers. Big mainly to, thats kind of a challenge. You know, because if you extend that must be the one crops, if we put a huge amount of bucket 3 button on the india on the federal government. And also it will lead to inexplicable distribution. And uh, you know, if the, uh, you know, an apple balance between demand and supply, it may lead to forwarding infliction as, but, you know, 5, personally do not change it as why is to, uh, you know, extend, it must be to on crops and, and ultimately look at the, you know, the deductible between 12. 20 of the pharmacy, you know, which would have brought in on once a box, but the bottom i but the, the bids, but would be to my mind that mckenna zoom was more market lake. And all i, although im glad you mentioned the 2000 and then 20 to 2021 era. But hold on, hold for a 2nd because we need to just remind ourselves in a little bit of background to whats going on in the big picture. Moody of coles wants to ton india into a develop nation that will, the economy is expected to grow 7. 3 percent this year. Its also on trying to become the Worlds Largest economy by 2030 overtaking japan in germany. A major driver of that growth is infrastructure. More than a 130000000000. 00 has been allocated to build assets like roads and poets. They see it. India is also trying to boost its manufacturing sex. So which accounts in any 17 percent of g d. P. It aims to replace china as a Global Production hub. Bought factories are struggling to fill vacancies despite modis pledge to create higher paying jobs. Or critics say in the quality is rising. And growth is viewed by sexes that dont help poor people in rural areas, the average per capita income in the south asian nation is nearly 2 and a half 1000. 00 a year. And thats less than a quarter of chinas so talking about the poor people being left out of this. Why is it taking so long john to address of the challenges of Farming Conditions because as we were talking of minutes ago, its been going on since 2020 of the protests at least. Right. See, you know, logistics, understand actually going to a bunch of routes, only 15 percent. Uh, you know, off ill send you an offer and you can be, you know, and if you look at where you dont have exact data, but you know, the range anywhere between uh, you know, 35 percent to 45 percent off the workforce. Depends. Uh, you know, the, the likelihood is, depends on agriculture. You know, its, its a, its, its a, its a very long side of the commission. And its, its happening in all the countries that above the workforce is going to be in front of the culture. So the challenge is how do you create more jobs . So india and, and deal to the same thing is happening. People are moving away from, id be go to because uh, you know, uh, you know, so, you know, the, just for people sort of judy be, cannot feed the, you know, a was a 40 percent off of the workforce. So theyre moving away. But the challenges will create more jobs going on. So, so far on the governments track record of you know, has, has not been as good as it has been on other friends. So i think the biggest challenge indiana is amazing today is to create more and more jobs, you know, i think. And if that happens, you know, the shifting of the day before, id be fine. Id be glad to get all of what well get absorbed into use that goes up and for that as you right. You said i think the government has to the skill in the edition with department to start having bought the on. I think it needs to needs to be given up, but i should leave a fly and somehow i have to get a feeling it, as i dont know what ive seen. But skilled us up very, very, very important for india has to be. But its the most effective within, you know, we have to educate and skill out people appropriately, which is very, very important because governments proud to be but some that i get a feeling a little up with what all the things it does. Taking a bit of a back seat or a dance. They may be moving away from agriculture, but its still a big employer. When you look at the numbers, you know, people in india and how many people are engaged in agricultural right. Is there also a child and to in improving efficiency of the Agricultural Sector and productivity . Yeah, so thats a, thats a big challenge. Generally, if you look at the body device and leads to these 2 crops, you know, and uh, you know, the productivity that, to the average productivity that you get in india is awfully hot of what you get in buckets in the us. And even pockets of china, you know, kind of looking. So i think, i think the productivity has to go about getting more and more uh, more than science and technology. More equipment needs to be used in farming. I think thats like the right thing on the one, but the problem is how does it happen if 86 percent of the 5 most are small in modern and, you know, and, and, and they have of a 100 miles got it opened up the existence. So do they have to do they have the support mechanism to, to adopt and embrace more technology, more equipment and well, and then let me know. Sometimes your mindset is the governments interim. 2024 budget. Providing that support, is it doing enough to some extent yes, the us, im been getting the programs that are also some form of loans which have been agreed upon. But again, you know, this is a kind of 2nd segment a far most well, the probably still not happy though that protesting how do you think the stand off is going to. And i think the purpose is also partly pretty good because they know little somebody election. So bottom and collections that are on the corner. So the final thoughts or feels that the government would be more than one variable, speed to to, to, to prolong any crisis. And, and so there is a splitter to get anybody by the time im not saying farmers dont have a problem that you had challenges. But, but the timing of the test as it has got something to do with the whats coming connections and i find them and keep believe last payment that the funds hopper and they will, the building go big. It will be able to live up dialogue between the government and the farmers. They want us to be more dine all and all the please all be brought from the table for the rice discussion in notes. But at the bottom notes weve been in and obviously been going through all the whole. All right, ill tell you what i saw and thanks so much john. So your analysis on that the off, the is of deflation. Japan is now seeing inflation with the fastest price growth emboldened 1st 2 years. But wages are failing to keep up with the rising cost of living and the japanese. Well, theyre not spending as much as they were. Last slowed economic activity, the end value to the dollar has gone south. Japans economy is now slipped into a recession, is dropped to rank below germany to become the worlds full largest economy. Well get into that with all gas shortly, but 1st, lets talk about what is the recession . Well, its when the economy shrinks. For 2 consecutive quotes is measured by a decrease in gross domestic products. Well, thats known as a technical recession because only one part of the economy suffers whereas a full recession. Well, that effects multiple sectors for a sustained period. And it affects people who faced job losses and reduced income leading to difficulties and paying bills, securing loans and maintaining savings. Businesses. On the other hand, while they struggle with decrease styles and potential bankruptcy, lets have a closer look at what happened in japan. The. The shaw phone is and consume is say, that feeling the pinch of cost, we feel that i feel that the way customers shop is changing. They would bring shopping lists, but now to protect their way of living, they are coming to see what the bog themselves, and then deciding what to buy. The acute, oh, thats good. Ive had to pay cuts. So i stopped buying clothes and reaching out in order to save money. Well, joining us from tokyo is jessica called director of the Investment Advisory firm melniks group, japan. Hes a former chief economist at jp morgan and Merrill Lynch good to have you with esa. So we go this unusual situation, i guess where were seeing corporate profit searching. The stock market is rising unemployment rate. So low and yet depends economy unexpectedly fell into recession. Why its very straightforward. Youll remember that in this country, one in 4 is now living off of pension. Its a very, a society average age is 50 years old. One and 4 people is actually over 70 now. And as a result of that, you know, youre living off your pension, which means that the same price is going up, energy price is going up, all of this is into your purchasing power. So the gap between corporate japan doing extremely well and the stock market searching and the average people and that in depth is wide me. Well we see then wages increase if the price is going up. Yes, and youre doing that, youre seeing that way just for the people in the twentys and thirtys are actually growing by 456 percent. So you know, for the young generation everything is fine. But as i said, you know, youve got this sort of barbell where, you know, 25 percent of the people are over 70 and they dont feel, you know, the surgeon incomes. And quite frankly, you know, theyre not going to feed it because they live all pensions, not of wages. So what is the solution that for flap very tricky situation with people on pensions . I dont think its a very tricky situation. Its just par for the course. And you know, in the sense of bad, you know, as a society ages, you know, the increase in asset prices. The increase in competitiveness of corporations does not necessarily translate into g d p or national income. So, you know, its a great country to be in. Its a wonderful country to invest in with plenty of opportunities and the quantity of live is still absolutely 2nd to none, particularly for the younger generation. A lot of eyes that are on the bank of japan right now. Do you think its going to move ahead with the countries 1st rate increases since 2007 . So i think the answer is yes, i do expect a normalization of Interest Rates. Remember, we had basically 0 emergency Interest Rates for almost one generation for almost uh, you know, 25 years. And normalizing Interest Rates by giving a little bit of a price of money for the term Interest Rates going to 2025 basis points. Thats in the cards, but it does not mean that there is a type of monetary policy. Its a normalization of liquidity conditions, not the central bank stepping on the brake, hold on. What impact then might have on the yen because thats an important question, isnt it . For exports is to youre absolutely right. You know, um, and ive learned the hard way that what matters is not so much japanese Interest Rates, but it is us Interest Rates. In other words, you know, if indeed the federal reserve, what to stop to increase Interest Rates one or 2 more times, that obviously would give a further boost to the dollar being comp trust. You find that the moves by the bank of japan, if at all, are going to be very deep from info and not dramatic. So i do think that the dollar is points to increase further. All right, and lets talk about the bottom line here. Shrinking population comes upon then ever recover its number 3 spot a no, absolutely not about the japans corporations will continue to gain competitiveness. Youve got a new generation of seo, swat, aggressive making new acquisitions. Just look at nip on steel, buying us steel. I mean, thats a very aggressive move. So the gap between g d, p, japan, and corporate competitive japan, inc. Bed gap is going to widen and dont worry, you know, the quality of life stays very high because Public Infrastructure remains excellent here in japan. So a more competitive corporate sector and still a very high quality of life here in tokyo. Or why should the japanese government do to spell my mall growth and perhaps try and look at that gap. So you know, this is where it gets very interesting. In the end there is one primary answer which is to allow more immigration, and the thirtys here in japan are doing this. The visa regulations for workers. But Digital Nomads for university students, it cetera. All of these visa regulations are being used. So you know, if you really want to return to a 23 percent growth economy, youre going to have to reduce it up further on immigration bills. All right, jessica call the thank so much good to talk to the position economy also fell into a technical recession at the end of last year. But the bank of things inside the u. K. Showing signs of recovery, many economists of oh to the bank of england to low a borrowing cost to help revive the economy. John. So the jeremy hand says that could happen soon of the underlying picture. Here is an economy that is more resilient than most people predicted inflation is coming down. Real wages have been going out now for 6 months. And if we stick to our guns, independent full cost is say that 5 year lease somewhere, we could stop the Interest Rates fully. And that will be a very important relief for families with mortgages. Now lets have from some brothers paypal about how they feel about the contraction of the economy. I say things are suddenly picking up. Its still quite hard and i think 2nd off of the kind of the 6 we paid for the bank to the company to jump election just as opposed to bubble and fill out allows us to move on get a sense of direction since we investment for business and so on, but ultimately employ, im pretty upset mistake, but i appreciate their people. So i think the jobs, its hard, but it will get back to me. I think its a symptom of what we did for of the last. How many years now. So its in use of the government that seems intent on getting to have your stronger economies. Ill talk a holics may have to full count more to satisfy the cravings. The main ingredient, of course, is co co, which mostly comes from west africa. The price of the beans hit a rec, hold high of 95900. 00 a ton more than a week ago. Manufacturer is a wire at the increase could damage that business. Thats because the price of co co, a search by 99 percent since last year major produces, including the maker of cadbury and tobler robin reported a slump in sales. Chocolate la. Those are starting to feel the impact. Some prices of almost doubled, making the one sweets escape come at to base a cost of all joining us for maam. So them in the netherlands is anthony fountain. Hes the managing director of the Voice Network and coal. So off the co cobra on the to a good to have you with us. So lets start with the obvious one that ends and why all coco price is rising. Coca prices are rising because supply is low and supply is low because of a combination of bad weather and thats, thats the result also of Climate Change and the nino weather pattern that were seeing at the moment. But also because of an outbreak of several crop diseases in west africa because of the threat of gold mining to go production in west africa. And because farmers are basically, theyve been underpaid for so long that theres not really a future for them in cocoa. And so theyre, theyre not really doing their best to grow a lot of dont go at the moment because its not worth it. Is there something that west africa can do to take care of some of the structural issues at least obviously. Um and i think that the Government Policies make a huge difference in what it is and what isnt able to be done there. So invest an infrastructure, invest in better education and, and invest in diversified production. And i go forestry versus just cutting down on the forests to grow. Go go, right. So those are things that the governments can do, but most of those will have a best and medium to long term effect on whats going on. What about the prices of all the commodities of a contributing to the challenge . Chocolate produces a facing the cocoa price peak is quite unique to coco at the moment because its really a co co specific problem. But were, were dealing with a problem across all crops and across many decades now. And its not just in tropical commodities where farmers are simply not being paid the price, they need to have a good livelihood. This is also why were seeing a lot of farmer protests in europe at the moment as well. Um, our local food system is not a pain doing a fair price to farmers is aimed at driving the price down as low as you possibly can get. Because we, as consumers, want the cheapest possible products and so a market sold is a sufficient to deal with that at the end of the day. Do you see any hope . I dont think that Market Forces are sufficient to help the farmer Market Forces work very well further down the supply chain, but weve known for decades. The market actually doesnt work well in paying the farmers properly. And in fact, the, the architect of the common agriculture will policy a dr. Politician. Many years ago after he invented the european colon Agricultural Policy said, actually supply and demand works very badly for farmers. And thats why we think farming needs to be paid remunerative. Lee and not based on supply and demand. Well, what about chocolate makes . Is that how they dealing with this challenge . Simply passing the everyone, they like to say everyone is quite concerned about these high prices. And when i say everyone, i mean everyone in the co co sector, the buyers, etc. Not so much for the prices, although that is a challenge. But theyre concerned because the prices are high because theres low supply. And if theres low supply at some point, that means if theres not going to be enough cocoa to make all of the chocolate that were used to consume it. So i think going down, always seeing the model for chocolate decrease not yet. But thats also because the big price hike hasnt actually reached the stores yet because cocoa gets sold a year, a year and a half in advance. And so the prices that were seeing now on translate into the chapter price is quite yet that will take quite a while before it officially gets there. Or i do think were going to see the price is rise any time soon, given all the facts, as youve mentioned. Ill go go down, would be say. So i would be surprised if the chocolate prices went down. I think they will go up because companies are quite good at kind of translating their increased costs to consumers. So that will definitely happen at 1st. People thought this high price was going to be a short term, temporary thing because of a, whether anomaly at the moment. More and more analysts are thinking this will take quite some time still at least a year, if not longer. So i dont think chocolate prices are going to be coming down anytime soon. Were gonna see shrink flash and with a shrink the size of the product instead. Well, thats what weve seen every time so far, when coke of prices are high, they either indeed shrink the size of the bar. I think total around did that quite spectacularly in a problem attic way a few years ago when it happened the last time. But you see Companies Making their packages smaller, but sometimes also putting in a whole bunch of extra ingredients in that art cocoa that are cheaper. So right expect see more kinds of chocolate with lots of other ingredients in it. All right, thanks so much for joining us. On this sweet topic. Thank you very much. And thats all show for this week, but remember you can get in touch with us, my sweet to use the hash tag. Dang ccc. And you do owe us an e mail to the cost that out there a dont let is our address as well for you online at al serra dont. Com slash these. You see like these sites on page which has individual reports, links and the power of those people catch up on the sense of this edition of counting the cost. Im signed these i that from the whole team here. Thanks for joining us use. And ill just say era is next this is the 1st one i saw that we see in real time, its the victims themselves. Theres a disconnect between what we are witnessing on social media versus what were seeing on mainstream. It is always an attempt to frame a true side of them, but there is no 2 sides to this. The western media does have a western bias who understand what they are looking to raise. The listening post covers how the news is covered. The challenges here with the. Ready of the israel bombard central dogs it for another night. It strikes have killed almost 30000 promising instance or take the 11 oclock this is out. Is there a lie from the hall also coming out . If nothing is done with a white split family and cause it is almost inevitable as wanting to the great disaster and jobs of the un says a culture of the population is one step away from from it. You as president jeff i wins his policy is primary in michigan, but some folks has for to
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