Transcripts For ALJAZ The Bottom Line 20240712

Voting and counting alan fischer is in washington d. C. Hes been monitoring developments from the Trump Campaign manager hes just been on a Conference Call with journalists he said that the democrats lying cheating and stealing is running rampant across the country theyre setting up a web site asking people to report any voting irregularities they see theyve also a. Big when in the courts in pennsylvania they came to over promise that under delivered and not essentially what the judge said when they were asked can we go and observe the ballots was yes but of course there were democrats and republicans in that room already observing the vote counting so all that the Trump Campaign is managed to do is its what those people. Because i was president says hell resign immediately to face a war crimes trial at the hague she was indicted in june by a special tribunal investigating the 1999 conflict with serbia that is accused of nearly 100 murders when he was a commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army group hes denied the allegations the fighting led to coffs of those independence in 2008 something serbia does not recognize. John miller fully has been sworn in for a 2nd time as tanzanias president lago foley was declared the winner of last weeks poll with 84 percent of the vote but opposition parties allege widespread vote for old and you nation wide lockdown has come into effect in england as it struggles to carve a 2nd wave of coronavirus by mr Vargas Johnson says it will be lifted automatically in the next 4 weeks scotland wales and Northern Ireland have their own restrictions in place and those are the headlines the news continues here on aljazeera after the bottom line joining me about half an hour. Hi im Steve Clements and i have a question the American People have finally spoken but what exactly have they said lets get to the bottom line. We have razor thin margins in several states and as we speak the tilt toward joe biden trump is challenging the results in his usual way on twitter hell probably take it to the courts its democracy on display in all its messy glory and drama but what happened to all the rosy preelection predictions from American Media and pollsters which was decimation for the republicans all the talk that the democrats would flip the senate expand their majority in the house take texas and that biden was 10 points ahead of trump all summer why were they so off the mark again thats exactly what we want to find out with our guest today frank luntz is one of the countrys top pollsters and political strategist lets on what unpack what just happened frank its great to be with you tonight and i know that youve been in the middle of all d lot of this many of us thought it was covert covert coded that was going to drive the behavior this action what have you seen in the 24 hours since this election has taken place and it wasnt as much about policy as it was about persona and that the media doesnt spend enough time to scuffing this that for the undecided voters for those who are not as politically active engaged in the end theyre trying to decide is this somebody i want to live with for the next 4 years is this someone who i want to be a role model for my kids is is someone who i will trust with my safety and my security and in the end those undecided voters and i and i set this up as a context decided that they would rather. Except for a time when trump behavior and keep his agenda remember it is just the undecided den go with joe biden who they like and respect and appreciate very much but he just wasnt clear about where he would go what he would do what policies he would promote and i believe that that its something to do with the polls being so wrong in those final few days but theres something more steve and that is that trump people just dont like pollsters they just dont like surveys they want to be heard they want to be listened to they want to be respected and appreciated valued but they dont trust the polling profession because they think its part of the swamp in washington that they resent so much and it is so much harder to get a trump voter to answer a question than to get a biden voter to answer a question and so all of these polls all of them Washington Post New York Times wall street journal c. N. N. Even fox underestimated the number of term voters that were out there and thats why they all got it so wrong and why they were so shocked that the republicans were able to keep the senate that theyve added seats in the house and that this election although it will end up with joe biden but that the election ended up so close frank isnt this a replay of 2016 werent these voters missed last time we didnt the same voters in that case not want to talk to pollsters or not want to tell them the truth i listen to a of focus group you did just this past weekend it was a Remarkable Group of folks in the sense that they seem candid and i like that you didnt bring anything and you were telling them what to say but some of the words they said about trump with regard to covert were irresponsible unprepared bombastic reckless bullying confused but yet youre saying that its still thats still the guy they felt they knew better than joe biden. Those people who felt that way voted for joe biden those people and that association with trump and i believe that if cope with the not happened and this is the 1st time im now saying it is ive been thinking about it if coakley to not happen donald trump would have been reelected and in fact even with code trump could have been reelected if you just took the time to prepare a plan or to communicate a plan or not to fight with dr found or just simply understand and empathize this election as it turned out was not joe bidens to win this election was down trumps to lose and he lost it or he will have lost it by the time the sayers. Is amazing to me that he so miscalculated he understands his own people perfectly but he miscalculated those people who could have voted for him assuming that they just wanted to hear and see what his own people heard and saw and not understanding that what you say to a supporter is very different than what you say to someone whos undecided do you think biden made a mistake not pushing an agenda further out there if you go to his website you can find lots of details on getting rid of dirty energy of you know looking at how you get a fairer economy how you get behind middle class working American Families but yet you didnt hear as much of that when we were battling over tony foushee and whether he would keep his job or not do you think it was a mistake for the biden team not to be more forthright and forceful with the agenda they were pushing. Yes you know no because if he had done it he would have divided either his core left wing support or he would have lost the people in the center that he needed to win if he said that he would support packing on the Supreme Court just think about that people in the center would have turned away from him they would have thought that well this is what is going to do as president if he would have said that he was going to not get rid of the filibuster then he would have had a problem with progresses so he was wise politically not to articulate where he fully stood however there are ways to communicate there are ways to signal. A policy agenda without coming explicitly on one side or the other and he chose not to do that in the east instead his whole campaign was that he was a nice guy he would bring the country together and that appealed once again to the people in the center that were turned on by Donald Trumps abusiveness but biden could have won a mandate and i believe that he could have brought some Democratic Senators and congressmen with him if hed been just a little bit more policy oriented and a little bit less about hey trust me im ok in the end joe biden is going to regret that he doesnt have a Democratic Senate hes going to kick hoops and kick himself every single day frank one of the things that i think has come up over and over again is what is this Election Results say about the United States of america now as a country a lot of people have looked at this populous movement those that questioned trade deals and globalization in the United Nations sort of this pat buchanan crowd theyve always been part of the american political system its been fringe but now it seems to have become much more mainstream i was kind of calling it of the sort of the meeting coal burning anti global populous but is that now a defining element of the american personality in the world thats not going to easily be shifted back under the rug. Yes and i compliment you on that question and i know that this is your 1st live show and you have deserved this for a long time weve known each other superficially for about a decade but ive always been impressed that youve got the ability to get inside a question and really tease it out and you just are right there we have a problem globally and it is not an issue of just saying america 1st that attitudes towards towards downtown trump across the internationals fear is so bad that it actually is affecting our they treat american businesses how they treat American Workers who happen to be over there and i am actually eager for a time when we still fight for the things that we believe in and still seek to benefit our country as much as we can but dont seek to emulate others and actually go up go find a way to be multinational much sorry multilateral that this idea of going it alone only has has so much success that we have to do better and particularly china if were going to hold their feet to the fire if were going to hold china accountable for the things that they have done to our businesses and done to our workforce and done to our National Security and most importantly our supply chain we cant do it alone we need canada support we need the u. K. Support we need europe support its not enough for us and the japanese and the south koreans we need a global effort to say to china listen we want to do business with you we want to use your manufacturing we want you to buy our goods but youre not going to play the same games that you played up to now you tilt to the rules youve ignored them youve broken them and the world is now going to hold you accountable we need the world to participate in this do you think that joe biden in concert with the republicans are going to win the senate and whoever will add to the house. Well be able to deliver that message in a compelling way to american citizens because i think a lot of the citizens who supported trump over the years they began to say hey we fought in afghanistan we fought in iraq by the way we fought in vietnam we fought the cold war and china won and so as they saw all the sacrifices their families were making over generations they were hit by the 20082009 financial crisis they saw their jobs off shored to china and vietnam in the philippines in india and so i guess my question is do you think that message right actually agree with you but someones got to go back and figure out how do you explain to americans that batting gage meant even with allies is going to be in their their net benefit and thats where you have to go the supply chain and weve done research on this weve done Public Opinion polling and focus groups and its the supply chain that scares americans the most that we should not be manufacturing or dependent upon china for anything that deals with Health Security Economic Security or National Security and the supply chain hits all of those and that is something that the public would support and the idea that we would have allies just as we go to war with allies we dont do anything alone we need to do the same thing economically basically this is economic diplomacy and its a lot better than sanctions its a lot better then then having these disputes that can spiral out of control and i think that what is needed more than anything else right now is clarity what we want versus what we need what were prepared to do and what were prepared to ignore i think that the world is looking for america to calm down a little bit to i dont. I dont get myself in this trouble and i want to get anyone because i always think about this. We need a little bit of common sense and we need a sense of operation and compromise on Still Holding to to our principles our values and our priorities and i choose those words carefully because that is exactly what the Chinese Government would understand and that is where we could actually forge an agreement that would be good for both not just both countries good good for the Global Community frank part of the tectonics of this political race weve seen over this last year was not just cove it not just an economic hit which was also on the minds of Many Americans but also racial divides and inequality the way covert hit you know different communities of color much more disparate disproportionately then it sort of you know White Communities and so im interested in what the tectonics of that are as youre looking at it because when you look at some of president trumps numbers particularly in florida he actually made big you know some substantial gains in communities of color that were unexpected so what have we not seen what are our blindspots on race in inequality that need to be brought to the surface well im not sure if you have any blindspots because. The people who the Community Just described there heard every day on the Mainstream Media there had heard every day and cable you heard every day on netflix that they have a voice that people in the neighborhood are actually your trump people who may live in tennessee or kentucky or West Virginia im running through my head that states where were chunk at 65 or even 70 percent of the vote north south dakota these are places who dont have people fighting for them there is no organization that is effective in helping people in appalachian there is no one whos speaking up for them and those are the people who are ignored those are the people whose voices we need to hear we are absolutely it is absolutely essential that we address those areas of inequality and this is not meant to be a a tagline for a political ad its real the single biggest change in the american psyche over the last 11 months is to say that equivalence is no longer an equal and i believe that it can be qualities wrong social inequality racial inequality that america has to do a better job of ensuring that the lowest on our social economic levels are raised up not to the highest and were not bringing people down but we have to bring people up and that is absolutely essential and our expectations our demands of Corporate America are different today whereas we will no longer accept a c. E. O. Who makes 20000000. 00 while laying off a 1000 workers that is untenable in the new america these are things that we should be knowing about what we often dont hear them and we often dont see them and and im hopeful that we can understand them without bringing violence to our streets and without the ugliness that we saw in too many of our urban. Im going to communicate it in the in the disputes that weve been having over the last 6 months looking in 2016 i went out i did some crazy thing where i went on 23 and me and i found all of these 2nd and 3rd cousins that i was allegedly blood related to and i reached out to them by email and said hey im out talking about this stuff can i pull you about what you think and it turns out of 100. 00 of these miscellaneous folks i found about 90 of them supported donald trump it was really an astounding i think an astounding record of relatives i had that i didnt know but i did that again this year net number slip to about 70 people out of 100 still a majority but when i look at that and i ask why it goes back to this conversation i happen to have with Vice President biden in 2016 around the same time and he had said steve the democrats have become a party of snobs and we have to fix that and im wondering as you see whats happened in the country right now with joe biden i think probably likely pulling ahead in the Electoral College vote but do you think hes fixed the snobbery problem as he defined it of the democratic party. Theres a way to go and i think the greater problem is not snobbery the greater problem is the actual is the Council Culture and the idea that the democrats can reject someone who they simply dont agree with or that they reject tencent millions of people who voted for donald trump simply because they like donald trump i am intolerant. Of those people who write others off because they simply disagree with them that is not what we do in america and thats not good for the political process the Education System in our country and i am particularly nervous about the Education System the media hollywood those institutions that affect how we come to our opinions because right now we have such a dismissive cancel culture that will actually fire you if they disagree with you or you will cease to exist snobbery can be dealt with its simply arrogance its ugly but its not that wont hurt anybody the Council Culture will destroy peoples lives and that should not be happening in this country at this time what are the pathways for that i think its very powerful what you just said and i have seen leading news media host talk about friends they had that were trumped supporters and that they had to write them off they had to cut them out they had to say you know no more and i guess i mean you and i are on the same page we have to talk and we do talk to everyone around this but what examples i mean you know you know our political system what examples could necessarily be brought together to be greater i suppose model for people to see that because i dont see very many people making the case that they ought to talk to all sides and defending that vigorously and ferociously because it is a disappearing part of the terrain im going to give you 2 examples and you know both of them Mitch Landrieu former mayor of new orleans and Lieutenant Governor of. Louisiana. I took landrieu myself as at the time i was a republican pollster and im trying to be much more nonpartisan its always why i carry out that but i took landrieu to iowa for the 2012 caucuses and he and i went for 2 days even stay overnight and we met with Republican Voters and landrieu did a better job of connecting with them than any other of the republican candidates landrieu genuinely likes people and wants to hear their concerns and wants to engage and interact with them and hes so easy he walks up to people and within 30 seconds theyre hugging him and i thought wow what a wonderful guy what a great human being to love people so much that even complete strangers he will seek to help him to raise up specs them appreciates them and on the republican side the republican leader of the house Kevin Mccarthy ive not met anyone more friendly or kind and what viewers will not know about kevin even though they may know him is that almost every meal hes having with a democrat that in a city where they choose sides they choose social engagements based on their politics and their policies kevin actually goes out of his way to interact with those from the other side of the fence and they none of them do they appreciate it but i would argue that Kevin Mccarthy is probably the most popular republican among democrats these are 2 people to follow to a very sad very powerful and i think senator chris coons who has a regular faith group with folks across the aisle members both senators and house members on this does a lot of the same thing but it gets into this other you know slightly uncomfortable conversation about conspiracy theories out in america we spoke about conspiracy theories kind of driving the middle east but q and on and the beginning that we have our 1st member of congress that sort of a member of a human on Conspiracy Group how do we begin dealing with that dimension of american politics. I love that and thats one of the reasons why i love the job i love these focus groups im actually a very shy person not as you can tell from the sense of you but it is people frighten me and i cant go up to them unless im working and if im seeking to understand people to meet life is a jigsaw puzzle and my job is to put it together every single day and i start when i wake up in the morning and my goal is to finish the puzzle that night and i think that if we learn out joyful it is to listen and experience life through somebody elses eyes to walk in their shoes it will make us better people it will help us resolve all those challenges that face others because in the end we are good people by how much good we provide to others not by what we do for ourselves you paid tribute today frank to on your blog on your twitter account to John Mclaughlin who is a pollster for the president and i was impressed with because you were introspective and you said you know this guy got it more right than almost anybody else of you know if not being perfect im just wondering where the Polling Industry is at this point some people like as you said mclachlan got it right maybe before Kellyanne Conway got it right 4 years ago what is the Polling Industry need to do to be introspective to take in whats happened and really retool. Before its thrown out if it will be in these discussions in future races well just maybe it should be thrown out just maybe we do a lot less polling and focus on the a lot more policy maybe focus on substance rather than the horse race i think that would be good for democracy particularly right now. And for the pollsters theyve got to get out of their ivory castles or whatever that phrase is ivory towers and theyve got to go and this is why i live for those focus groups and has been very hard for me because its dangerous for me to do this at a stroke in january in may be able to tell from the difference in my voice i need to learn from people i need to ask them questions i need to challenge them and so this last weekend i went up to redding pennsylvania and interviewed 35 trump voters and then i went to philadelphia and into the i interviewed 30 biden heris voters and i found so much knowledge from that and i realized that you can only get so much wisdom from numbers on a page thats thats produced through some sort of Computer Program that yes they do represent the opinions of people but i need the full picture i need to i needed to be 3 dimensional and a poll only tell she so much these focus groups that i do the one on one interviews i i i love it i need it and i encourage people to join me and in fact steve you were on that focus group because im trying to bring Reporters People who are responsible for explaining how people feel to others i want you to see the truth i want you to see what i see and hear what i hear and so my mission is not just to engage in this and impart wisdom my mission is to bring so many people into this process so many more people that theyll understand how americans really think and ill merican really feel and when you get it wrong its your responsibility to fix it im jewish and we dont have a process of of and now i need to know what to call it confessions. And i look at my entire life as a confession if i get something wrong i dont want to confess to a religious leader i want to confess to the people who i may have wrong and thats why i said and i down the church on John Mclaughlin that his polling was still better he made mistakes and the other states and he said donald trump would win were going to find out that its actually losing but he was so much closer to the results and i think that we will be a better country and a better people and a better democracy and a better eyesight if we would learn to acknowledge our mistakes well frank luntz pollster extraordinary you and i have like have a deal with each other never to be put to polite and nice but not a bad discussion at all want to thank you very much for your time this evening thank you well have you back i hope much more so frank luntz thank you thank you steve so whats the bottom line after the last election Many Americans were shocked and confused how could a businessman and hollywood celebrity with no Public Service and with little regard for decorum be chosen to lead the United States of america this time knowing exactly what kind of wrecking ball that donald trump is millions more voted for him at this moment biden is on the verge of securing 270. 00 Electoral College votes which trump is disputing however it turns out trump ism is not going away its not a fluke and its not a temporary blip and trump styling presence in american politics isnt going to disappear even if hes not in the white house and thats the bottom line. Frank assessments if american Public Opinion feels betrayed by social media platforms after november what would be there with the buses if you believe that there are 0 zip through our democracy one obvious solution is to break the law informed opinions look at checkers dont go anyway the protesters arent going anywhere either its ability to get evolution people also call indepth analysis of the days global headlines who is it thats really out there on the street inside story on aljazeera. Held for over 3 years in an egyptian prison cell denied the right to a fair trial no charges have been brought against al jazeera correspondent mahmoud youre saying his crime journalism. To demand my new truly its in boy solidarity with all detained journalists sign the petition. News saying. My name is Matthew Castle i grew up jewish in america and i support the palestinian struggle against occupation when politics can pass and my mom saw me at a protest in chicago carrying a palestinian flag she told me i was no longer her son is it possible to be jubilation critical of zionism. I do palestinian solidarity work think its the most jewish thing i can do what about the treatment towards the palestinians in the occupation of gaza algis e n a correspondent. Played Important Role in protecting human. Face. But i am here to report to the count is finished we believe we will be the winners and 2 days after the us president ial election there is still no winner but democratic nominee joe biden says hes very close to victory as donald trump launches legal challenges. It could all come down to these 2 races vote counting is still underway in georgia and pennsylvania