Once again the Korean Peninsula is on the edge north korea says it will send troops to the demilitarized border and resume military drills after it blew a hole Liaison Office meant to facilitate talks just how bad is it this time and can the tension be contained this is inside story. Hello im come all sons of maria it was just 2 years ago when the leaders of north korea and south korea agreed to work towards peace they signed a pact to stop cross border hostilities and for once there was hope for reconciliation but now that hope its hard to find young yangs threaten to redeploy troops near the demilitarized border it also destroyed a Liaison Office meant to facilitate dialogue because it says south korea allowed north korean defectors to drop government leaflets into its territory the government insult and eyes that and says it will no longer tolerate north koreas behavior at the moment its a lot of woods but could words turn into actions more with our panel in a moment after this report from robert bride in south korea. Making its message clear and unequivocal the destruction of the joint Liaison Office has been widely broadcast by north korean state run media accompanied by warnings that it will increase its military presence along the border separating the 2 koreas. Guard posts that had been removed to deescalate tensions will now be restored while military exercises on the northern side of the border will be resumed bringing this unusually strong response from the south. Such moves thought to the efforts and achievements made by the 2 koreas to maintain peace and the north will surely pay if these measures are put into action the north has blamed the south for allowing defectors to release propaganda balloons into its territory but north Korean Leader kim jong un is also frustrated at his failure to get more concessions in summits with the south korean president moon j. N. And with u. S. President donald trump the north seeming to conclude the current path of diplomacy has run its course just doesnt its just not that interested anymore and moon is very constrained by sanctions i mean thats why this thing is sort of been frozen for year and a half im just not sure that much can change in the next 6 months or 8 months a jew on the Southern Side of the border relatives of people abducted during the korean war hold a simple ceremony. And then events are being staged with the coming 70th anniversary of the start of the conflict least sango was a baby when his father was abducted to the north. For him and others still living with the wars consequences this latest attempt at reconciliation has achieved little condone kim jong un wouldnt recognize this issue even uses and the sas korean or to ministration couldnt put the issue on the table green the summit in any case this section of the border is where rail and road links were meant to be connected if the Current Initiative had been a success it was planned that you would become one of the main crossing points between north and south in what would be a new era of peaceful coexistence on the peninsula they are hopes that for the time being at least seeing dashed once more Robert Bright aljazeera to south korea. So lets bring in our panel for today starting in Arlington Virginia weve got scott snyder senior fellow for korea studies and director of the program on u. S. Korea policy at the council on Foreign Relations in seoul is john park political economist and next Generation Research at the National Research foundation of korea and finally in exeter in the u. K. Its a good Foster Carter Senior Research fellow on korea at Leeds University thank you all of you think coming on the show today i would say from the outset that this entire discussion will involve a fair amount of supposition just because we will never truly know whats happening in north korea that said lets give it a go it in Foster Carter ill start with you defectors in the south send up propaganda balloons with with leaflets apparently and the north responds by blowing up a Liaison Office it seems disproportionate so what do you think is really going on. I think quite a number of things that going on caught me off if im action to mend it 1st of all the connection that they made i mean its a feeble excuse the leaflets are on you since actually the south korean government was scrambling to do something about that moon j. N. President moon of south korea probably the most friendly president in seoul the North Koreans have ever had or now ever will have was during his august about it but in a free society its quite hard to do that i think they planned all this already it was a calf of the time step by step escalation day by day and i think that they want to send a signal that theyre very angry with south korea for not being kinder to them but what can the u. S. Do because the u. N. Sanctions forbid most rooms of cooperation that cross with the u. S. And very briefly just domestic stuff as well its all in the name of camille john thats a very interesting fact kim jong uns youngest sister shes giving all of this to soltis i think that sets her up as a potential successor should anything happen to that brother and finally its a distraction because the north korean economy is in a mass and what do you do you think you could create an enemy so theres probably a overstepped you wish they could say but yeah those things like i saw in many that and kenya was a whole different issue which i will look at later because shes you know quite fascinating john park ill bring you in maybe just give us a bit of perspective from south korea aden said that you know president moon is maybe the the the friendliest president theyve had theyre the most easy going as far as negotiations go and yet this sort of thing still happens. I think from the south korean side the blue house is undergoing discussions about realigning their main. People in terms of negotiation yesterday the minister of unification has resigned and right now there are discussions about who are who another alternative team to be in discussion with north korea and the United States that resignation can you tell me a little bit more about that because it seemed to be a sort of. How would you say falling on his sword sort of saying well this happened so i must go but presumably leaves the whole idea of reunification and leo zones in a worse position when someone resigns like that well but the point here is that the minister of unification is was not in that much of a powerful position to begin with in their negotiations and what it looks like is that given south koreas political Decision Making structure or the blue house and the president ial aides in the National Security council they had more leverage and now it seems that specific names were named by the north korean side and doesnt really look like they would be welcomed in the next negotiation if ever scotts not i will bring you into the conversation are from arlington are when the north sit well 1st of all it makes this huge statement by blowing up a building and then it talks about redeploying troops to the demilitarized border in practicality what does that mean i mean the fear is that there will be some sort of actual military flare up there or is this maybe just more posturing. Lets write a its a remarkable reversal from where we were 2 years ago and it really represents i think the North Koreans deciding that they want to move back to the status for ante or something similar with some possibly different features. And i think that most showily is the north korea and no dont shoot in reports that the joint chiefs of staff is actually going to move to conduct military exercises near the d. M. Z. And so this really possibly puts us into a situation where were reverting to a situation where the border is an active zone of tension conflict to confrontation and yet until it really means yes as i say you talked about 2 years ago i mentioned it as well that was out of the show that is of course that the pun when john declaration which i had a way look at today and one of the paragraphs i pulled out where they said the 2 sides will make joint efforts to defuse the acute military tensions and to remove the danger of war in the Korean Peninsula short story punching on declaration is it worth anything any more. No thats what north korea is doing theyre completely reversing all of the progress that has been made limited though it might have been over the course of past years and really putting us back to square one and enter korean relationship one of drug confrontation that incidentally also implicates the United States because u. S. F. K. The u. S. Forces korea are there committed to come to south koreas defense in the event of. Some kind of outbreak of conflict sort of come back to a little bit later on we talk more about the United States seeing as you brought them up i want to go back to i just found out if we dont have the pam and john declaration then what do we have we have 2 countries technically and i know its a sort of throwaway line but 2 countries stick technically still at war. What would be your fears about escalation. Well it dont you see it does carry risks i we have to wait and see 1st of all you know words and deeds and also it was the same thing with d north korea at the the blowing up of the laotian office was a very dramatic day eat on their own territory. Lets see what they actually do they freshened i think there are some reports this is happening that troops will go back into 2 areas one quite near the border the case on. And which is the same place where the explosion took place and not combat these are former joint ventures now lapsed with south korea and of course along the border itself i mean this is saturday texas back to where we were less than 2 years ago before september 28th but the d. M. Z. The last family name to even assure i say it was still the worlds most heavily fortified funkier in terms of the firepower just outside it on either side but it had made a real difference that it was a much having been a quite tense place for many decades it was a more peaceful one guard posts have been emptied and so on there were even agreements a joint excavation of military remains for of People Killed in the korean war which in the end the South Koreans were doing on their own because the north been shunning them for about a year before they got actually nost of this wreck but obviously the south is going to have to be on its guard and this is the game the North Koreans are playing they want themselves to be vigilant on the north shore and south of us want to be careful if the north does actually try something how do you respond in a way that doesnt escalate so its a real shame that were going back to this kind of tension that we thought we had gone beyond june would i be right in saying that the south would be unlikely to escalate i mean i know they already made some diplomatic overtures which were rejected already by the north. I cant see south korea escalating quite as much as the north things tell me otherwise. I think youre right in the sense that south korea would not be violently you know responding to these line of events but whats really of concern here is that president ial. Political Life Expectancy cycle should i say jane has just won a general election by a landslide and his party has won but. Given the political cycle of south korea towards the president ial election and 2022 theres not enough time or Political Capital left after the failure of 3 years of to play old diplomacy with north korea and there is not much support from the south Korean Senate zones to go on with this endeavor right speaking of failed diplomacy with the north korean scott lets talk about the United States here i noticed a state department putting out a statement appealing to north korea quote to refrain from further counter bridge up to actions thats pretty weak isnt it given they blew up a bill its got. Well and the u. S. The Trump Administration so far has been relatively quiet on the us but of course the action has been directed at south korea i think that the u. S. Still would like to and is leaving the door open to talks but its pretty clear that the North Koreans are shutting that door and i think that really for the near term the focus is actually going to be more on management or containment of potential tension escalation near the d. M. Z. And that will also involve the u. S. To some degree in support of the administrations efforts in that regard and north korea seems really i mean the language is always fascinating but its a really angry with the United States at the moment because that the foreign minister put out a statement. Saying 2 years since the singapore summit the 1st trump came summit and you know it was saying that the u. S. Was hell bent on exacerbating the situation and turning the Korean Peninsula into the worlds most dangerous hot spot holes i mean this is real vitriol that theres a lot of disappointment i think in pyongyang and that the gambit. By some a tree over the course of past past 2 years has failed to deliver sanctions relaxation and it has not opened the door to. More firm detente between the u. S. And north korea i think the north korean objective was states not not denuclearization but the u. S. Keeps on insisting that denuclearization be a condition for detente. So i guess what we have an on the says just a general thought to all 3 of you we have a situation where there is no talking from anyone be it into korean dialogue be it u. S. North korean theres tension all over the place and then aid and ill come back to you for this you bring in a new character a new player almost in the form of kim jong the younger sister of kim jong un and again her rhetoric has been huge as well talking about it was sickening listening to president moon speech and things that tell me more about her and the role shes playing right now. Well in so far as i can tell from well in a long way away and it is it that we should always be clear what a difficult regime this is to read and what is knowledge and what is speculation what is very clear is that profile has risen markedly this year it was only in march that she made a Public Statement in her own name the 1st time that with this being said a rude about president being gay and not half as rude as she has become more recent then she gave another one in march being rather nice about donald trump and instantly revealing that hed sent a message offering to help with corona virus which of course will trip claims not to have what i do find very striking that is that her name specifically is all over the escalation that weve had over the past week or so and so the situation where she as i stare at her of the Party Department is in effect giving notice to the military that she and to make a point of course its also to look at where these things are actually not just for external consumption its all over the north korean papers themselves and not on the chin when they tell the party paper that is telling the north Korean People that this is a very important person it never says of course who says sister she is but i guess people know and i do think and here we get into speculation that this is to do with the fact that if anything were to happen to kim jong un who is young but possibly not terribly healthy given his lifestyle then and his children are far too young so she is i do think others might disagree a bit there that she is being placed in position just in case she is needed as a potential success dont you agree with that that she is being lined up by that because that would be interesting wouldnt it as a potential successor given its been such a male dominated society and the and that. Whats the word im looking for that the patriarchy of north korea the grandfather and the father in the son its all male. Well i think the blah blahing narrative has always spend very central to the north korean regime and given the kind of. Role that she has played placed herself and i think that there is a political struggle that is going on in north korea piece of the. The grown up arrow situation and the stalemate going on in the u. S. South korea china the diplomatic. Context so if with her on the horizon if she is kind she is the place and this kind of a pedestal then i think this is a stage for her to debut politically and to have some legitimacy compared to her earlier appearances and events so this may be something very very crucial korea does the leadership in the self favor no comment on her or talk about her on this one and how she might be viewed because shes got you know just look at some of the pictures weve seen of her shes got so much sort of charisma and presence about her. I think when she visited south korea for the olympics and when she visited the south Korean Leadership i think. When the picture was quite ro see your spare i think people of south korean citizens looked at her very fun fully. But in the turn of the recent events i think that has really shocked some of the. Some of the people that are especially looking very close to the d. N. C. And many people. Not just in the policy around but you know citizens that are interested in north Korean South Korean relations into a korean relations theyre very upset to see the tax money flow into flames given the kind of gesture that she has given us shown when she was here ok so weve talked about whats happened lets talk about what could happen i guess im talking about deescalation here scott no one wants to talk to anyone at the moment it seems so there would need to be some sort of broker who could that be. Well let me talk a little bit about risk for talk of a deescalation because the situation that weve painted is one where north korea could be driven primarily by a domestic motive for latest suv succession in which case its an internal priority there is no possibility of appeasement and if we look at what happened in the context of kim jong uns preparation to be the designated successor we saw 2 incidents in 2010 where the North Koreans drew south korean blood as the basis on which to establish kim jong uns bona fetus as a legitimate successor and so the concern here is really that the North Koreans might go so far as to draw blood putting everyone into a focus on managing and containing and trying to remove the risk of military escalation really as the 1st step toward getting back to stability ok and so they do want to move it on their to that idea of the escalation that we know what the you know talks of some description diplomacy of some description well i think that thats going to depend on primarily on the north because right now its very clear that theyre not in a talking mood theyre in a destructive mode. And i think that that has to change 1st before its going to be possible to have a profitable diplomatic interchange under these circumstances hey i didnt coat them paint some influence exerted from china perhaps i just think of china as being obviously the in a very important to north korea as far as being a biggest trading pot that just someone or some other entity to come in and just put a little bit of pressure and say hey lets talk about this. That depends i think there is a very long history scott will know better than i given where hes placed close to d. C. 8 successive us governments of tried many different policies to which north korea but they will having common including up to trump at the beginning wanting china to do something thats kept china will it what this tends to ignore all is that even a good times and god knows these are not good times i complain the 2nd china and the us do not have identical interests and korea or anywhere else china at once north korea to exist north korea sit down nations to china sometimes particularly if it does things like Nuclear Testing not too far from the chinese border and by the way i dont rule out that that might be a publication that might go for bots it is a path to status or relatively stable but the states that china which has problems on the ports as were seeing at the moment north korea china will protect the kim jong un regime. Now in better times and that was perhaps a chance that the chinese would influence mills that have to a limited degree implemented some quite drastic un sanctions weve seen how chinese trade original premise about any trade north korea has did actually get out of to trying to 16 but these are very bad times as im sure all of us are a web a tree in china or in the us there is not the slightest incentive that cheech and came out in a fairy direct competition for great interest to the welsh to superpose why would she didnt thing left to think to help the United States he will only restrain north korea if he thinks there is an actual risk of war on the peninsula otherwise i guess say that cheatin ping is smiling at all of this question i can only gen populate the final word with you as we start to run down the clock. The feeling im getting here is that it really all depends on the north what sort of mood theyre in its there its the its the unpredictable factor in all of this and the u. S. Or japan or china could do anything or do nothing it will all depend on the north well i think from the north korean side i should i think what they had in mind. Prior to the negotiations ears. The expectations on on all the sites all the sites there and again there are a total mismatch and the reelection cycle in the United States is going to make diplomacy a lot more difficult and the bolton book the kind of controversy that it will bring to the previous events that occurred behind closed doors it will cause a lot of disruption in the coming days right there will put a big watch and wait on this one and hopefully talk to you all about it again in the future scott snyder in Arlington June park in seoul and in falls to casa in extra thank you for joining us and you are if you are around the world thank you for being a part of this show as well you can continue that online at aljazeera dot com home page is in the shows section there facebook dot com forwards us a. J. 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