Hes been determined to be the only player in libya but coming off a half those hopes now seem shattered forces loyal to the internationally recognized government are making significant gains so as huffed are about to lose the war this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program im Adrian Finnegan warlord Khalifa Haftar wants to control libya his battle to do just that could be reaching a turning point but not in his favor he launched his offensive to capture the capital tripoli more than a year ago its where the internationally recognized government is based forces loyal to that government of National Accord or d. N. A. Say theyre regaining ground theyve captured several towns around tripoli and are advancing towards tahu not an important base for supporting how fast forces fighting has intensified in recent weeks despite the spread of covert 19 thats as countries continue to supply libyas rival powers with weapons despite a United Nations arms embargo well the u. N. Has warned all parties that the worsening violence and humanitarian crisis could amount to war crimes and in a statement on monday it called for a cease fire this senseless protracted war must stop immediately it said u. N. S. I and ill refuse its call for a humanitarian truce to allow libyans to prepare for the holy month in peace and the authorities to provide urgently needed services treat the wounded and address the mounting threat of covert 19 will several attempts have been made to bring peace to libya in the past few months turkey and russia reached a tentative cease fire deal in libya in january that came out the turkish troops had been deployed to support the an internationally recognized government a while russian. Its Security Forces were allegedly fighting alongside hostile libyas Prime Minister fayyad signed up to that cease fire a few days they said moscow but how fatah abruptly left the talks a peace conference was then held in germanys capital berlin foreign powers backing libyas 2 warring sides agreed to respect the United Nations arms embargo un led talks in geneva between representatives from each side ended without a breakthrough in february and last month the un envoy for libya got sun salami resigned citing health reasons. So lets bring in our panel for todays discussion from rome were joined by cloudier get seanie a Senior Analyst on libya at the International Crisis group from robots new fall aboud executive director of the Nordic Center for conflict transformation and from istanbul so law elba couche whos a political analyst on libya and former advisor to the Libyan High Council of state welcome to you all claudia lets start with you is the tide turning in libyas war. That is no doubt that the forces of the tripoli government with the help of turkey and the military equipment that was put on the ground in the last few weeks have made sizable gains on the ground in the last week weve seen tripoli based forces advanced slightly west of the capital and slightly south of the capital and this of course is a recent change in the balance of power that were talking only about gains of the past few weeks so well have to see where they tripoli forces are able to sustain this and then if this is the case then will we be able to talk about a change in that time and what the reactions of the outside powers back. There in his forces will be in the sense that we could be looking at a vicious pattern of escalation and not just a change of balance. Whats behind the jennys success militarily and will tripolis forces be able to sustain this momentum. Well yes it is very important when you analyze Something Like this the notion of space and time is very important because it gives us an idea about the parties in this war one of the ideas is that the space that has been gained by did yen a force that backed by the by turkey and the way east swept again of the territories where there are front of them on most of the cities between tripoli and tunisia and also all the coastal in and also in the west and some of the cities in in the south in the time of very short and the pilot is one of them with lot of alum this serves us about actually what is really have to us forces are about the idea is is is that perhaps have that is not on the ground have them does not have an organized military as it was portrayed by the country that were supporting have thats whats theirs and actually have to rely on meant mercenaries or what we can call it investors or private investors of war that shift their allegiance and their positions and their side according to the financial gains and mature again that they gain from have to have to have that back in country when i can see here and what concerns us is that a red line on mysteries in the city is. Shifts and shift very quickly and is shift also because perhaps there was a decrease on the financial gains that those mercenaries one game is i would think that the forces of the dname National Accords will that there is a un backed. Government and also with the support of turkey is actually making momentum game again and sweep. If it really is and it would be very very hard to see the return on that escalation of this war from the top sides. Picking up on that to what extent has his turkeys into mention made these gains by the chin a possible at all those games going to lead to an end to the war in libya or to a further escalation i think the main contribution of care of this effort by that is. Isnt there in the here where the turks shell has neutralized have errors. And the. Drones and so on and underground the ground the g. L. A. Forces know this area very well and they have the numbers and they have the experience i mean they fought lot 4 wars so far on the same grounds that their experience again that should serve their experience theyre going to get their forces and their experience in the internal clashes within the several forces inside the west of libya so that was the main turkish contribution maybe some tactical advice was also helpful there but there i think it is important to say. That its a bit too early to judge whats going on until maybe. d the who or city face is determined probably in the next few days and then we can see maybe a clearer picture of whats going on we note also that after the forces are. In disarray the man hasnt shown up on t. V. Or we havent heard from him or the last 23 weeks we dont know whats going on. In the east his. Superiority his reputation his stature is being a hinge there every day with these advances by the jenny Clear Committee and now set the parameters of the Peace Process is it in a position to do that. Well i think the 1st question to ask is if its willing to set the parameters of the Peace Process in my conversations with my friends and interlocutors in tripoli and they seem to suggest that its still premature to talk about conditions for a cease fire that the offensive is still ongoing as mr sonner said before meet the offensive against this stronghold hafter stronghold outside tripoli the city of terror who now is ongoing what will happen with that town is still up in the air and whether again gday forces will be able to sustain their positions is an open question so there is actually no talk for the time be about setting out conditions from the g. N. A. T. Side and i must say been from the eastern side there led forces there is a complete denial on their need to engage on a Peace Process but it must be said and we should remember that when turkey decided to him to be on the side of the jenin forces it said they said in ankara that their purpose was to rebalance the power on the ground in order to enable a Peace Process so now there is also a certain moral burden on the outside backers of the d. N. A. To ensure that you know once weve gone beyond this initial phase of a counteroffensive that the target may that are the Peace Process that has to still be in the car its not there yet i want to talk about about the back as both a g. And a and of have tossed forces in just a moment but 1st a new front i want to pick up on something that you alluded to or you you you you touched upon in your in your 1st answer what do the g. N. A. S. Gains tell us about half the us fighting force and its competence the fact that theyve been swept aside by the forces of the jna in so many parts of of more than libya. Yet like i said you know the time in which the general gained due to get gain back the territory is and that the size of the target is quite large this tells us about the construct of how i have to have task force was our has been in indirectly war if you want to say even directly deconstructed by this game from to d. N. A. Like it was mentioned have to disappear now for the last weeks. Weve been it was portrayed as it had been an organized military which is not the case but its. Hes reliance on mercenaries has been out hes very visible and you cant game war only based on mercenaries another point that i would like to to mention he is about the backup from turkey this is not new in tripoli and in libya in general this is almost a repeat of the history in relation to one time and how do order of things john that was representing the romans are the time has invaded tripoli and had there was so many atrocities among libyan civilians or deviancy opinions went to turkey to the Ottoman Empire at the time earth for empire of a silly man asking for protection and intervention so there is a history of or im going to remember this is in between he took it back in the libyans and specially in relation to tripoli so the idea of where half that question that it should be is there where is the structure of has a military right now and the answer to this question will tell us how the future should look like in the in the country a cloud a before before i go back to solitude you just want to comment on that i saw you smile and roll your eyes that were well i am just find it very easy to reach back centuries and in history as in order to make comparisons i mean the turkish intervention opened. According to turkish law and. Not according to other parameters international parameters is a fact and in itself of course turkish authorities like to tap into the art you know the ottoman rhetoric their ultimate history of turkey and portraying themselves and we hear this and authorities in ankara as the savior. Of libya pipe because of this Ottoman Heritage and therefore they had. Duty to to intervene to say what were originally. Libyan. Its a dangerous sort of hard to take that are historical analogies but i wanted to raise one it one issue when when when i hear of to talk about the mercenaries in the haftorah forces ranks thats theres no doubt that using Russian Private contract is sudanese has done florian and so on but lets not forget and lets also remember that the tripoli forces at the moment in the 1st past few months have been heavily reliant on another sort of mystery force which are the Syrian Forces provided through to that now range of the thousands and it is undeniable that they have contributed to this new wave or reverse of the of the tide in the conflict around tripoli so mercenaries are present in libya on both sides of the conflict. To what extent is is turkey and the u. A. E. The key to what happens next in this conflict. No i think what call here is. Saying here is what weve been hearing from the europeans now that the turks. Are supporting the libyans everybody is raising hell about it turkish mercenaries and so on and thousands of them and they were heavily used they were not evilly and i dont think there are any evidence that can be shown by call your anybody else that mercenaries were used in clearly clearing the coastal highway of libya including a series of sort of mass of. That children and so on there are no evidence whatsoever that mercenaries were used now nobody talked the europeans no but none of them talk about what did you weigh do it in libya what the saudis are doing livea what the actions are doing in libya now that were when the russians and the turks got in everybody raise hell about and that shows you the i mean the diversity of the europeans and this hypocrisy of the parker see of their position nobody thought i mean the the u. S. Since the berlin conference has sent tons of equipment to have they have they they have an airbase in the east of libya they used to bomb the west of libya nobody thought about. The europeans are our. Talk and they convened the berlin conference once they saw the current and the russians are in there is the only reason and no they are initiating this i really. Mission in the mediterranean to help have and help in monarchies and try to stop the turks thats what the whole thing is about and until we see any bones and not hypocritical position from the europeans i think. The libyans and the navy will continue and we will not listen to anything that the europeans are going to say because they have nothing to offer they have they are broken out of. This united and they are not. They have no position in the conflict now clear how how heavily involved in the conflict this is the u. A. E. Why has it not subject to the same criticism turkey and russia for being so. No i mean we weve all known that they usually is directly involved in the labor conflict its nothing new they started helping. Build up his forces in the senate and their way back in 24 to 2015 also only egyptians have played a key role in any help in this military force which originally numbered just a few 100 people and now has thousands 6 of people and. A parallel unrecognized government backing it in Eastern Libya its documented in a number of a u. N. Panel of experts report so its widely known and especially since the outbreak of hostilities last april at the beginning of this war in tripoli was widely known that the u. A. E. Was providing armed drones in support of half to our forces. Allies back to say that theres been a greater outcry about foreign presence of Foreign Forces in libya since russia has been a lot of visible this is late 2019 russian Security Forces have been on the ground with with after and also since turkey decided to him to be but i think weve all known of the role of the immorality. Forces its an indirect role its a role mainly of the provision of equipment not forces on the ground but there are also bankrolling. Forces of course the focus of the u. N. And i would say a number of European Countries in approaching the libya conflict was to take. Take on board the fact that increasingly more and more countries more and more forces are jumping into the libya chaos of the libya conflict for their own National Strategic interests and using libya and factions to pursue those interests ok european approach and u. N. Approach was to say. Lets talk foreign intervention the father comes here just a moment. Or 2 to come back on on what we just heard then i wonder what what this conflict in libya would look like without the u. A. E. If it was somehow stopped from violating arms embargoes and. Directives from the u. N. Is there anything more ridiculous then the europeans joining us in several declaration statement joint statements calling saying that there is no political theres no military solution and there are as can all everybody. Here dorothys fire when theyre signing these statements would do you a i mean i mean how ridiculous it there and yes gloria says that yeah its widely know well this widely known to the brits and the french and the germans and the italians what the way hes doing but the that doesnt stop them from signing this ridiculous statement joint statement calling for a political solution i mean the political solution was 10 days away would have done with the help of the marquiss and the french at that tripoli while mr good terrorist was in town so everybody talks about there is no military solution and there is a political solution so on but i think the situation is going the way syria is going everybody was saying that there is no military solution and ends up with a military solution so i think until everybody gets their act together and they start calling a spade a spade there will be no political solution there will be no political solution would have to have to has shown his soulful content for any political solution at every turn. No foul as the fact that have to as allies have been distracted by the coronavirus pandemic helps the jna militarily and weakened after us forces is there any international appetite right now given the pandemic to find an internationally mediated political solution to libyas conflict. Yeah the circumstances of the pandemic have shifted little bit the position of the. Allies of will support have to. Be current of the core and a virus that is going around it in their own countries and that the more a more you know do look over the spend then of the money on x. And warts that of course we will see even more shift in my opinion on the position on. Those who support have to when the pandemic hits heavily the forces of have to about 15 or 20 percent of them if they are affected by the corner virus we will definitely see. A a backpack cough of the forces and these mercenaries in relation to the established government of did ye ne that war that that was recognized by the un and here of late to come back so what solution for libya now i was asked the question what framework once are resolved that the crisis in libya there was one of was proposed under the un it was the deep agreement in morocco that if to wish the d. N. A. With established. 2015 december 17th of the 15th since then there was opposition to the framework of the un we want to go on a political solution and in the framework of the un or are we going somewhere with the framework of private interests of countries or even the private interests of the e. U. I think. You know for the interests of the v. P. Of people there is an International Situation there is a risk also for International Peace and security which is that you went up or are we going anywhere well have to up and down things up but i think the d. N. A. Whether with or without the pandemic they have more thought. Credibility to be able to work with and find the legal solution within the premises that the u. N. Not into territory of libya and because its only the casualties if you need so i think the momentum is going higher for the framework of this was proposed under that agreement that ok there im afraid we must end it many thanks indeed all for being with us claudia get seanie. A brood and sala elba kush and thank you for watching dont forget you can see the program again at any time just by going to the website at aljazeera dot com for further discussion on libya join us on our Facebook Page youll find that at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter our handle at a. J. Inside story from me adrian for the good of the whole team here and thanks for being with us well see you again lifer. 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