History but album on a case of the persian gulf about to blow their wealth and just how low will oil prices go. Union divided on sharing the Economic Cost of the pandemic why france and italy are lining up against germany and the netherlands. Now Subsaharan Africa could be plunged into its 1st recession in 25 years as the Global Health crisis brought about by the corona virus wreaks havoc many nations like nigeria angola south africa are dependent on commodities for a large chunk of trade and revenues all have been decimated as economies have ground to a halt well the World Bank Estimates growth could tumble to minus 5 point one percent from 2. 4 percent triggering Food Insecurity the pandemic could cost the region as much as 79000000000. 00 in lost output from falling Commodity Prices to a drop in tourism. The Nigerian Government to seeking 7000000000. 00 in emergency funding from the i. M. F. And world bank its last budget assume that oil prices would be around 59. 00 a barrel its currently trading at half that right now and kenya is in talks to tap the world bank and i. M. F. For 1200000000. 00 and the i. M. F. Says zimbabwe needs hundreds of billions of dollars to avert a humanitarian crisis more than 2 weeks after zimbabwe imposed a nationwide lockdown its easing some restrictions the countrys already facing its worst economic crisis in a decade and the measures are threatening the livelihoods of people aljazeera has more from harare. Some relief was the barbarians who rely on relatives living abroad to send them money for days some people havent had to pass to buy food and other essentials its forced the government to ease a 3 week coronavirus lucked out that means Money Transfer agencies cannot open but only 3 times a week theyre opening it was easy a lot of creation model for families was most of these guys are relying on not just what are the images which is a big big contribution of me mr comes to the desk of coming in to get into the country it is unusual the nationwide lockdown has affected many sectors of the economy brian unger makes and sells sculptures mainly for the foreign markets he cant do that now as you can see police quote. Coming we saw it on the. Visitors who are coming to view all of this is. In a country facing its worst economic crisis in a decade soaring inflation storage is a foreign currency food and electricity Global Travel restrictions have left places empty more than 2000000. 00 visitors came to zimbabwe last year most traveled from the parts of Africa Europe and the u. S. The money they brought in support of thousands of locals working in the Tourism Industry not many families are struggling. Some businesses are trying to get by fresh in a box deliver supplies to peoples houses customers order online so they can stay at home and try to keep safe a lot of more stuff afield to come into work obviously because of the distancing. The other object is that a lot of people are now using our services you know people are socially distancing and isolating their homes and so the Delivery Service business is really sort of become a lifeline for a lot of people who depend on us to bring their food. Very fishy to me shopping the other the government has removed at the lockdown restrictions families cannot sell produce at markets but social distancing and other precautions against a canonical iris a difficult to maintain like many african countries zimbabwe is battling with how to stop the spread of kopechne 1000. 00 without damaging and already crumbling economy had a much tighter aljazeera had. So thats the situation in zimbabwe kenyas economy had already been under strain but the coronavirus could further stretch the countrys finances and there are fears that health care could be overwhelmed were joining us now via skype from nairobi is dr kathy wangi shes chief executive officer at m. Health kenya kathy we know that many rich nations have been severely stretched by code 19 but do you think that kenya has the resources to handle this pandemic. I think it is we are faced by a im president at times right now and. We got up and only that has not discrimination and whether rich or poor but i think the Silver Lining in kenya situation is that many other countries thats what its embarrassing the last 30 days to get to watch and learn from the other countries and theres a lot of people. Going on and so i think when it comes to resources i also look actually saw from a different point of view and that you know for maturity we go into one of the biggest resources of the prevention but i think i would love the kenyan government has just that social and behavioral change we. Will see the government steps from behind or to train and courage the will to enforce social change you know weve been receiving aid groups and were seeing the. Time shift. He knew what king environments are not just minutes sectors and they think of these are major changes even from a cultural point of view. I think this bill great impact you know or on the downward sort of Security Resources especially you know in any area where we know that the sources are limited the government is putting in place elaborate measures to prepare for the worst you know employing additional start equipping he said setting up Isolation Centers lets just talk about the i. M. F. And the world bank for a 2nd because we know that kenya has asked the i. M. F. And the world bank for help is that money going to be sufficient for kenyas needs do you think. Adding great now anything helps you know like harry did i mean we are living in that time which is not Empirical Data or where the fire absolutely cards saw as 2 separate fish and see that might be hard one to tell what we can probably starts to decouple efficiency so thats the little we get from the i am not that wild bunch order that you know or even the private sector you know can be utilized properly i have seen all sectors greats now working together the private sector is becoming more important for him in providing to me shuns expertise in different capacities where we have got him and maybe even all these efforts are going to help improving efficiencies in the long run i represent the private sector and enable kenya you know has been contributing in a smaller rate missing our technology to assist in conduct tracing maybe messaging contacts tracking those who are being managed from whole and this is done in collaboration with many other sequel does who want to see that country get about to the war so i think in this case it doesnt matter where the funding is coming from a lot of the take all does who all have a good interest in making sure that we are 3 or 4 think of it 1000 men back to all we know that we know that some nations cathy have been able to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the countrys Health Services is this something do you think kenya will be able to do absolutely i think i can say with all your doubt given the overwhelming concerted efforts that we are seeing from across the divide you know we are all trained not to do that and and we we are all doing what we can to to support each other to educate. I was talking to a friend the other be telling them that you know before it was not it was normal to to to greet and if you never should get it and in our culture you look like us not wish now everybody. Is watching to what. Making sure that we are were keeping distance were Wearing Masks but we last saw i have seen the government make great efforts communicating that seen a lot of increased testing at the time context tracing and. You know. The media is also playing a really big ruling informing the masses and getting to the really really really more remote areas so that everybody whether youre in the rural or urban area you or your. And i think the ball we educate them all we we get to people and the more the country that the government needs continuously the efforts that they are making i want to believe that we. Have dr kathy munger we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost already take you. Now despite an historic cut in production the world is still oversupplied with oil and prices could head below 20. 00 a barrel and that would decimate the finances of many opec members and put 80 percent of u. S. Shale producers out of business even if Oil Prices Fall to 10. 00 a barrel the all rich monarchies of the persian gulf are still able to eke out gains as other nations make losses or prior to this crisis the International Monetary fund warned that arab monarchy is risk wandering their 2 trillion dollars in wealth within the next 15 years. Well joining us via skype from doha is akbar khan hes senior director of Asset Management at our eye on investment act passed so a huge historic cut in Oil Production but prices arent likely to hit 50. 00 a barrel this year what does this mean then for budgets and for spending when its clearly negative the breakeven oil breakeven the budget breakeven prices for the gulf countries range from the low mid fiftys up to probably 8090 even more than a 100. 00 for some of the states so if oil currently at 30. 00 and potentially likely to go far lower what this means is that either they run extraordinarily large deficits or they cut spending most likely to be a combination of both where they do cut spending and they take loans or issue sovereign bonds to to finance the budget deficit and and paul what does this mean then for saudi arabia in particular i mean the crown Prince Mohammed bin solomon he has some very ambitious plans to diversify the economy doesnt he. He does he does and hes not alone in the region all the regions are trying all the countries in the region are trying to diversify their economy means more than salon as probably the is in focus at the moment because hes the most recent to really push hard all the countries in the region have a 2030 plan or 2035 plan saudi is no different and for saudi and for the other countries this makes the diversification process far harder but also far more urgent but unfortunately in the Current Situation and we saw this in 20141516 oil prices were also at very low levels it reverses significantly the speed of diversification at that time the 80 was introduced in a couple of the countries in the region including in saudi arabia unfortunately right now the opposite is happening and the opposite is required so you cannot be increasing taxes right now when actually the consumers both individual and corporate need help and stimulus from governments so it makes makes that makes the process of trying to navigate through this far more complicated so lets talk about the impact then of the coronavirus pandemic what are the nations been doing to keep the economies afloat i mean qatar for example is paying some private sector wages what other nations doing so theres been a lot of announcements. And a lot of different types of help that has been announced and that ranges from announcements to to default of the Banking Systems to 2 as well as obviously Interest Rates have been cut but that was outside of the hands of the region because u. S. Interest rates were cut that said none of the Interest Rates in the region are at 0 percent like they are in the us so they havent been reflected quite quite as much but also theres a huge amount of fiscal measures so from cutting of government. Fees to cutting utilities to help with salaries to deferral of loan payments to a number of strategies to help as a means except for the worry though is that while there have been a lot of announcements the hasnt necessarily been implementation so its the timing of the implementation which varies from country to country saudi arabia actually is probably one of the countries which has implemented a little bit faster. The u. S. Has done a few few things as well but in many of the other countries you are seeing more announcements then the actual implementation of the measures apart let me get a final thought from you could there be enough stress in the system for other g. C. C. Countries with pegs to the u. S. Dollar to perhaps loosen those big bags in the region long help akes to the dollar. Are a economic as well as political decision like the euro is an economic and a political decision so unless there is very very severe economic pressure while there may be certain economic rationalists at times to. Loosen the peg so to devalue the currency i dont think any of any of the countries would do this unless they were forced to and forced to from a financial perspective the only country in the region where where the Financial Markets are indicating some concern for the strength of the peg is in oman where the 12 month forwards on the money reale are implying a 55. 00 or 6 percent weaker currency but even a man would be very hesitant to to deep a big unless they were forced to kuwait is the exception which many years ago moved to and moved its big not to a fixed big but to a basket of currencies so when the dollar is still the largest part of that basket so just gives it a little bit more flexibility so perhaps that might be a way forward for countries like a man but in general wouldnt expect the pace to to go anywhere anytime soon and our rights are because we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost thank you now the European Union has agreed a 500000000000 euro package for countries odd by the pandemic but they stop short of putting boring as demanded by france and italy many observers believe this massive rescue package is not enough to kickstart economies after the crisis germany the key power broker has been opposed to the sharing of debt or socalled corona bombs aljazeera has done it came as more. Very slowly some people in each new countries are returning to work in madrid workers on Building Sites or resuming operations in italy to a very gradual return to work is underway in both these countries the mortality rate has been high but so has the economic damage and both countries are crying out for help from the e. U. Its aleutian is loans fast cash for Member States and exposed companies at preferential rates a 3 fold plan involving the European Investment bank the european stability mechanism and short working they had up to around the trillion euros a step change in the economic order nice and we deal with our union this emergency plan well sealed our economic and social fabric as we dive into a recession but this is not enough for the italians whose Prime Minister believes the e. U. Solution is way off the mark. But that the main battle that italy must carry on the european table concerns of fund that must be financed with the real economic sharing of the effort such as with euro bonds yes the euro bonds the famous euro bonds the fund that must have a power proportionate to the numbers and resources that are required by a war economy the fund must also be available immediately i am telling all my counterparts. But many central Northern European countries remain unconvinced by that specifically germany divison i see here a little bit as you know i dont believe in mutual responsibility in the current state of our Political Union and thats why we are rejecting that but there are many other ways to show solidarity and i think we can find Good Solutions you know some economists say what europe needs now is a sort of Marshall Plan for the 21st century with preexisting debt burdens guaranteed by the wealthier e. U. States as it stands right now the recession in the south will be a lot harder a lot more severe they are already up to their neck in debt the potential growth was already low so i think we need transfers from the north or the south of this is this the the bait we need to be having the dilemma of the germans face is clear they believe in evil solidarity and they want to help however they know that there are important economic voices here we really dont want euro bonds to happen but they also know that if the southern european economies do tank it wont take too long for the impact to be felt here to dominic a aljazeera belin. Well joining us via skype from brussels is francesco puppet they are hes a senior resident fellow at the Brueghel Institute he was the director general for Market Operations at the European Central bank francesco great to have you on the program look there seems to be money for e. U. States to fight the pandemic to keep economies afloat but not socalled corona bonds just talk us through that briefly when i think that indeed as you say there is money for countries to deal with the with the coleader 90. 00 and this is of course are welcome and unlike the situation in emerging economies where the problem is much more receivers however its also true dat that there are some countries say germany that are in much more comfortable situation then other countries may keep terri and that because its an get situation and are its like a growth of a very very large. Had to deal with the same crisis in more precarious more precarious to india and so yes overall this equation is ok but is not that this same all across the euro area and francesco we know that france is in favor of countries sharing the burden by putting resources so tell us what needs to be done to change that to bring the germans and the dutch on board to agree to this. Well i think that the basic problem is one of the elect of the trust between north and sun but theyre not in countries a few year then if indeed mutualization dates place south and countries will run in prudent to physical palaces as are they have done and in the past so the 1st of thing is that that southern countries should reassure the northern countries that they have understood what the problems are that they havent heard in running imprudent policies in in the past that is of interest the 2nd one is that countries in the north must fully understand 2 things 1st that there are some solidarity issues and that come up from a being in the euro zone and in the e. U. In general and 2nd even more important that they cannot be individual salvation ive just heard recently a Prominent German economist are saying that the german ill do industry could not restart and lessen the north of italy or to restart so because our such importance replied chains that in the north of italy and germany out of industry that the former director cannot start if the former it does not start so this is just an an example of the fact that there is a need for joint action for all countries to be able to deal effectively really and exhaustively with the barrus francesco so what do you make of the response from the e. C. B. And the e. U. States to the crisis so far. I think the z. B. As in previous cases has come out of quickly and. To a sufficient i do a sufficient degree its not only that the having preserved a lie but there to we then made it more flexible they have change of the regulation allowing banks to lend more they have been providing day they will be providing funding or do i do banks and very convenient joints even including a subsidy so they have done quite a lot what is missing i think is a more action more fiscal action level i think of what that the euro group that has a recently agreed is welcome but is not my sufficient and indeed they even said it is not sufficient because i dont talk of the recovery fine we dont know what these recovery find there will be how it will be engineered a rugged real what it will do but in a way its rico denies the debt that the lending that they have established. Even if there is an agreement is not quite enough and that more needs to be done i dont think and then we are ready european ready the euro zone is ready for permanent euro bonds and the conditions are not adequate for that there is insufficient control of the fiscal situation of countries to come to this on a permanent bases however i do believe there are not transition not unlimited bases there could be common issuance to find out the expenses that are needed or to deal with cobbett both sanitary and economic expenses francesco just briefly is there a feeling then that accumulated debts may hurt the recovery or will bondholders just have to get used to the new normal the new reality. Well i think that markets are likely to understand that what is happening is that they needed an answer to a fully examined in a shock so they would have some kind of understanding for how your debt level but they need to be reassured and the same particular applies to countries that already have hided levels there in the future be pushed or of nor word. Debt burden is essential and the way to do this is and the the the best way to do this is through growth sustainable and i would add green Sustainable Growth would be the best way to reassure markets that indeed the debt will not be still. Damaging Going Forward all right Francesca Party and we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost thank you pleasure and that is our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with us via twitter use the hash tag a j c t c when you do all you can drop us an email counting the cost of aljazeera dot net is our address but theres more for you on line of aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That will take you straight to our page which as individual reports links the entire episode for you to catch up on well thats it for this edition of counting the cost im daryn jordan from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on aljazeera is next. For 30 years the red cross has provided a lifeline for afghanistans physically disabled one i want to meet through remarkable people risking their lives to help the disabled in bor to afghanistan on aljazeera. Throughout history human kind has come together to prevail in our darkest moments this is a moment for pretty much the ups. Laying low saving humankind by really really not getting near every generation has its moment where individual sacrifice makes way for the good of those who come after this war is ours. Hello im down in jordan doha with the top stories here on aljazeera as coronavirus cases in the u. S. Increase President Trump says hes now planning to suspend all immigration in a tweet he said it was necessary to stop the outbreak and protect american jobs he previously suspended travel from europe china and other nations for the 1st time in history u. S. Oil prices have crashed below 0 into negative territory a drastic reduction in Global Demand because of the pandemic and lock down measures means the world now has more crude oil that it can store on the galaxy reports
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