System riddled with bad debts india tends to revive the countrys 4th largest bank as depositors yank their cash. And saudi arabias Oil Price War with russia could send crude prices to 10. 00 a barrel with an oil producer like indonesia cope. 9 trillion dollars and counting thats what rich nations have spent so far on the coronavirus pandemic theyre trying to make sure theres a functioning economy if they get to grips with the outbreak but the damage done is likely to surpass the financial crisis maybe even the Great Depression what is known its the worst economic crisis in the last 70 years well at this time theres a rush to safety the 11 year bull run in u. S. Stock markets is over and theres one safe haven everyone is banking on and its not gold its the dollar for all the talk of the dollar would lose its reserve currency status its proved to be just that talk lets take a look at some examples now emerging markets have borne the brunt of the rush for dollars indonesias superior lost almost 14 percent of its value since the beginning of the year the russian ruble and mexican peso lost a 5th of their. The problem for emerging markets them i want to cut Interest Rates to stimulate corona hit economies but that would undermine their currencies further and Interest Payments on dollar denominated debt is just soared unbalancing finances and sterling fell more than 10 percent or to a low of 1. 14 a level last seen in 185. 00 the u. K. s divorce from the European Union has broken the resilience of the pound which was considered to be tethered to the fortunes of the continent well not anymore the best performing currency just happens to be the arjen time peso best performing of course in the sense its fall in the least compared to other latin american nations having capital controls has certainly helped though now the dollar has been the worlds leading currency for more than a century today more than 60 percent of all foreign Bank Reserves are in dollars lets find out what happened to all those challengers to the dollars crown with jamil akhmed hes the global head of currency strategy and Market Research at f. X. T. M. He joins us via skype from london good to have you with us jimi so this crisis is shown its just been a lot of talk about the dollar ending its still the worlds current reserve currency of choice right absolutely yes listen the dollars not only remains to if this was a game of the dollar is on the line from has been on the guy im friend for extremely long time it dominates all of the serving under and this is being something thats been in play for close to a century now since water times and we are still 2530 years away from anybody being able to say that they could challenge that dollar yes some currencies of made progress but the dollar store funded if you work globally for so many Different Reasons and we. Just look at the dollar performance over the past week we had the dollar strengthened by close to 5 percent on a weekly basis thats it strongest performance since 2000 and currency such as the british pound as a result but dont let domination plunge the love was nothing seen a 55. 00 is gold recently had its worst year since the late 1980 s. And even the Australian Dollar has lost over 20 percent yet today there is no contender to the dollar this is this is the end game but the dollars trump is so strong right now its superior like if youre a sports fan its like watching liverpool in the premier league this season theres no 2nd challenge he said that really says the end game hang on to me and does that mean the yuan has squandered its chance there was a time when some were predicting the on could be the worlds reserve currency this is still unlikely and we dont see this full up you know even this being a possibility for the next 20 or 30 yes 1st much progress as the chinese yuan and the chinese economy has major global contributions over the past 20 s it still has so much more to go for example if we look at the. Payments of the dollar as we look at a Foreign Exchange reserves International Debt International Loans punishing should turn over the dollar is still supreme and actually the only 2nd character that can come into play on this is the euro and even the euro is that france before all of its suffering and see whether the euro could collapse the chinese yuan in that table is no one can it be one day yes but when it happens just troops attend isnt that right now with the year at about 70 percent but its been a bit of a desire that this rising dollar dissolves the 4 emerging markets though right it is we have a recipe for disaster right now when it comes to emerging markets performance and. You have a global disease outbreak that is that is so how does our stuff. This is going to contribute to a global recession which means thats as lower growth everywhere as a result of this stock market stepping in freefall which essentially means there has been no appetite to watch emerging markets because they assume that risky assets that you dont invest in in Uncertain Times and with this youve got the dollar that strong finning across the board just a menu some of the casualties the russian ruble has declined by close to 30 percent this year the presidium reality as much as that to the indian rupee has hit a record low the South African rand has weakened by 20 percent days being simply no end in sight when it comes to prisoners against the dollars raining here all emerging market currencies have to climb yesterday and even those that have been declined as much such as the Malaysian Ringgit as one example it still has declined by beyond 5 percent even stelling though i mean it was once upon a time a very Stable Currency whats happened the last week. I guess you could say the importance of fastening a seat belt on the wild descent down 90 fasten your seat by the glass shattered on the british throne and over the past week up into the beginning of last week we can say that the british pound was pretty reform and pretty resilient against various concerns out of one of the major currencies including the euro to Australian Dollar swiss franc japanese shanghai it was the most well its how to the virus concerns but as soon as that virus epidemic intensified into the u. K. And consume severed u. K. Lockdown which essentially is what were at right now came into play the produce pounds source of worst performance in decades now explain this for us the Federal Reserve is pumping dollars as fast as they can into the system its even going a commitment for whats being termed as quantitative easing infinity yet the thirst for dollars doesnt end why. Essentially because everybody wants a dollar cash is king right now and by cash that means were sticking dollars underneath our pillow cases thats essentially what does what the fairy is in the market right now essentially even despite more than much start despite to emergency for the reserve Interest Rate cuts the Federal Reserve announced an Stimulus Program a quantitative easing everybody still wants the greenback thats because the greenback is funded in so many different methods from loans to that so Oil Transactions go to name everything start dominated and at the same point its again its been a would reserve currency for a century since war times and that will not change anytime soon which gives president towards why everybody still wants the u. S. Dollar all right Interesting Times it is thanks so much. Oil prices could be headed to 10. 00 a barrel as the Global Economy heads towards recession and the Oil Price War between saudi arabia and russia is adding to the crisis problems of piling up for countries that are both importers and exporters of oil such as indonesia aljazeera as jessica washington has the story from jakarta around the world the corona Virus Outbreak isnt just a Health Emergency its also an economic one disruptions to supply chains were given at such a dramatic price war in the oil market with unexpected a falling out between saudi arabia and russia us back to the shop its one day crash in Oil Prices Since the gulf war. Indonesia is one of the countries thats both an export and importer and economists think it could be a challenging time for the country and its oil industry the export us will really going to feel the pinch i think the 1st is because cotton a fire is impacting the Global Economy the chinas economy will feel the slowdown the Global Economy will fail to slow down like almost everything in recent weeks the slump in oil prices comes back to the corona Virus Outbreak china the worlds biggest importer of oil was turning back tank is as its economy began to contract. Saudi arabia called for a massive cant in production but russia disagreed and in response to riyadh ramped up production indonesia is a net importer of Oil Production has been steadily on the decline and domestic consumption on the rise some fear volatility in the sector may not bode well for the future prospects of indonesias domestic industry with lower prices. Attractive enough festers but a Foreign Investment to come into the oil sector in need and what we need the most right now is investment coming in to really push level of production because our oil lifting the production of oil currently on a declining path. Executives at indonesias state owned Oil Company Pertamina away in the prospects of an indefinite price war that. We will add to our stock because the price is low but demand is also low it all depends on capacity as well as the downside there are pockets of opportunities for some economies but the general instability isnt welcome for most things on how to get. Income from exports will fall it may be good for imports but theres still less money for the government this is the impact of the virus as the virus continues its spread there may be more economic shocks on the way just to washington aljazeera jakarta. Leaving before the Coronavirus Crisis indias Financial Institutions were causing concern because of their large debts yes bank the 4th largest lender in india was taken over by the government this month thats the 3rd rescue this year aljazeera has elizabeth for random reports from the capital new delhi. Some good news at last. The government. Imposed during the government. Is due to end on wednesday. The government took control on march the 6th because the bank had too many bad debts and loans which werent being repaid the take to customers lining up to get their money out and the government imposing the with it for the bailout the government of the reserve bank of india brought together 8 banks led by the state bank of india the largest in the country the bank is again highlighting the banking crisis involving Financial Institutions with too many bad. Banks which dont face the same regulations as well known and the company. Yes banks customers included some of indias biggest businesses including group a body was once one of indias richest people rather than incremental big increase in credit was going to already promoters who were were wouldnt before before were not able to pay back their bank loans taken much earlier like in the u. P. A. The previous regime so so so that sort of turned out all the cronies ended up getting more loans to pay back their earlier loans the government has accused us banks found and his family of laundering around 600000000. 00 by receiving kickbacks for extending loans that couldnt be repaid kapoors lawyer says hes being made a scapegoat 5th largest private analysts say the toxic loans crisis goes beyond a few bad apples its the 3rd time in a year that indias reserve bank has intervened to rescue a lender the where are bad loans and. Have plagued our economy our Financial System the last 5 years what are beyond government had been hoping for a slow train wreck you know they want to soft land the problems that they were they were looking over but in this business there is no slow train wreck a train wreck of the train wreck it will cause damage. Many are asking why the government didnt notice us banks massive growth with the economy was suffering a significant slowdown yes bank rescue comes at a bad time for indias economy which is growing at its lowest pace in over 6 years the government is now investigating why the take all the had to happen the financial analysts say unless the entire. 3rd biggest economy could deteriorate further elizabeth problem al jazeera new delhi. Well joining us via skype from singapore is darren economist at Capital Economics good to have you with us what went so wrong that yes bank well. What i think happened is mostly a Corporate Governance issue so in particular was a lot of overly risky lending practices that was going on a few years ago and it just led up to a build up of nonperforming loans and a deterioration in u. S. Banks financial position now this is of course the 3rd bank rescue this year has the problem been solved or should we expect more banks to run into trouble well indias Banking Sector is it has its share of problems and i dont think an issue like this would be so easily eliminated and of course several measures that the government would probably put in place over the next few years or so to try and attend to clean up whatevers going on so i phones are going to be like what will it take to clear this one up so in terms of Corporate Governance that theyre simple things like trying to adopt best practice accounting and International Auditing standards of or enforcing more stringent punishments for cases of financial fraud or irregularities. One interesting think thing about the yes bang issue is that this was a private sector bank and. Its kind of stock counterpoint against the idea that privatization of the Banking Sector would help with all these issues but i still think that if theyre small a great amount of private sector involvement there will be some therell be some improvements made into clearing up these Corporate Governance issues mainly because the banks on average perform better and they are less cases of fraud and financially ready irregularities within private sector banks than with public banks why this was a bad time for the economy even before the coronavirus whats going on with growth you think so much of the slowdown has happened over the last year or so can be traced back to the problems in the shadow Banking Sector and what that did was it created a squeeze of credit because a lot of risk aversion and reluctance to lend to these banks started to take place after fs default it into an easy and it basically cause investment of the slump and then from there on you see this. Gradual continuous slow down since. One assumes current virus is only going to make that growth worse right well were quite pessimistic about the outlook for this year right now because. The immediate issue now i guess is that the mission might lock down has been announced a few days ago thats going to cause growth to slump because sectors like manufacturing transport retail and were all going to ground to a hot and what this is going to do is basically just going to see g. D. P. Growth drop and were forecasting it to fall to a 4 decade low all right thanks so much darren for a coming and talking to us about that and now the travel and Tourism Industry accounted for more than 10 percent of the Global Economy in 2018 creating 319000000. 00 jobs worldwide the industry was the 1st to face the brunt of the pandemic as travelers cancel their bookings the Airline Industry is expected to lose more than 250000000000. 00 in revenue this year as airlines are forced to ground their craft so how is the Industry Holding up well our next guest is the chief executive of travel management startup travel perk admire joins us from barcelona via skype good to have you with us lets start with the more visible part of the industry that airlines of course they stand to lose what tens of billions of dollars theyre telling their employees to take leave sometimes unpaid leave what sort of consequences of a facing. And youre right that there are times are in a very. Difficult spocks absent like many other areas it industry were looking out for the consideration of the most routes now for a nice many many im actually just to keep the Slots Available so its looking pretty good i think for the never. Yeah im talking about several weeks of cash left this is a black swan that pretty much body would have predicted an industry so Many Companies as many suppliers have to change their Business Model good like relationship with or to be bailed out because theres just not a way right now bailout is maybe a hope for some industries what does that mean for a business like yours that youre a startup you rely on revenue from commissions on bookings right. So so choppered you know we have his approach platform for us going in the world and. Like. Business travel relate that trouble rate that companies we are affected we see the crease in bookings. In so certain countries its 100 percent based like if that if for example right now and then we see some nord and a trace of 80 to 90 percent in other affected countries i think long term we would have to change that industry this is going to be a moment or really reinvention of some of the thinking business trouble in trouble over oil and how you feel self by inventing yourself and youll business yeah thats a great question i think we started doing this exchange already last year and i would just etc thing and put things that were going to focus on more and more is 6 ability and the sustainability of our industry fix it is obvious right i mean if you think about how the world would look after growing up i predict a pretty. Period of time where you have corridors where you know youll be able to go from germany to france but not from germany to spank thats an example because of the situation of us and new cases of the virus and i think this is going to be with us for a pretty long time and of an expert going in and theyre going to have 2 viruses but im just reading what the experts say so far that you have to objectivity and we have property of something called tricks a fair bit of trouble is to get a full refund off the trip for any reason weve got it last year and we said i think it best i think that we actually are going to hire more people now in the spirit and invest more into flexibility and into this inability interesting do you think most businesses like ules are in a position do they have enough funds that you know this sort of flexible readjustment takes time it takes money out to. Correct yes so you know real fortunate a truck right we have raised capital from investors and were very fish in his nest so of course adjusting our costs single present operational expenses rich us think several things in how we are things. But of course if you dont have the cash or if youre deficient of the business its going to be very gentle and i think many businesses are dropping out like me should we need situation so its interesting that your vision of the future of this industry is this idea of perhaps colored all is who we wont be in perhaps complete shutdowns forever but there will still be color dolls opened and closed between places but it is your vision of this this vision of the future threatened by the fact that people are migrating to things like lets have more Virtual Meetings rather than traveling to meet lets do business more virtually and communicate more virtually and less face to face with with social distancing kicking in. Its going to question and i think that we are going to make it of the Largest Scale experiment in remote work and i think i think many people really learned that for some type of meeting the sometimes the direction is working better more efficient and you are were seeing less time and polluting thats right and some other meetings definitely have to be fixed base and of Human Interaction i think that if you just step back and just think about whats right for you know what i think is right for you or a positive world i think its good if we are more conscious about effect and there and the cost and not just in terms of monetary cost of traveling i dont think trouble is going to go away its a Huge Industry talk about 1. 00 trillion dollars spent nobody on Business Travel and he does been growing 6 or 7 percent you were near before this crisis and i think it will go back to growing up there but if we if we if we can be a bit more conscious of our decision i dont think its about drop a privilege its your product with reaper for example just. Evolution of this Current Crisis we are not that we really think it. And this product allows you to automatically directly invest in projects youre in a Group Project that reduce Carbon Emissions so youre trouble and then we offset for you what that might be for example one of the projects we supporting is fission. Stoesz fucking in rwanda africa just one of the partners so i think many many travelers are looking for these tricks ability in 11 and they need to trouble work but also they went on to august better in fact a lawyer negative impact on the product and i think we have as a company and we as a as an industry we have to adjust without them we have to serve the needs of customers so a lot that needs to be addressed and is going to take one is in there thanks so much abbi for coming in and giving us your eyes on that great talking to you. And thats our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with us via twitter use the hash tag a. J. C. T c when you do or drop us an email counting the cost down to 0 dont mention is our address is more for you on line and out 0 dont call me slash city seen it that will take you straight to our page which has individual reports links and entire episodes for you to catch up on. Thats it for this edition of counting the cost im sam is a ban from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news an aljazeera is next. When diplomacy fields and fear sweep then our borders are wide open wide open to drugs terrorists weve proven the barriers are built to impose division and its not effective instead of being an obstacle or do a good job wastes it became another obstacle to peace in a 4 part series aljazeera revisits the reasons for divisions in different parts of the world and the impact they have on both sides walls of shame on aljazeera. Aljazeera. And for you. This is aljazeera. Hardly one im come all santa maria this is the news hour from aljazeera another rise in deaths in the worst hit parts of europe italy and spain continue to feel the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic life are slowly returning to normal in what was once the epicenter of the outbreak in china. There are infections across the United States soaring pasta high
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