Coronavirus its in his economic heart is under strain the financial and fashion capital milan resembles a ghost town or weddings funerals football matches and other large public gatherings that counselled everyones been banned from leaving 16 provinces in the north many flocked to train stations and airports before the lockdown came into force its at least until early next month right now because thats a change in an enemy action than what is happening in my city is worrying me and its also a saddening because milan is a lively city and see it like this today is almost a defeat for me i never would have thought this would happen you flew from are the able to leave because there were no instructions i asked the Italian Foreign office and other than taking all temperature they cant really do much. If it is government is asking the European Union to implement urgent measures as the virus spreads quickly across the continent the u. K. Is imposing 2 weeks of mandatory self isolation for anyone returning from northern italy france with the 2nd highest number of cases in europe has banned gatherings of more than 1000 people. Lets bring in our panel to discuss all this further here in the studio with me we have andrus coppice hes a lecturer in the department of psychology at the university of london who researches Human Behavior and uncertainty in the land via skype we have mother lisa problem both shes a journalist and editor of the italian daily newspaper correa la della cetera and in geneva and hes spyro a professor of Population Health science and policy of mt sinai welcome to you walt thank you for joining us for this discussion but of the say if i can start by speaking to you were going to talk about the facts here were going to talk about the science but 1st want to get a little bit of the mood can you tell us what it feels like right now in milan you know its its really we aired a heavy line is anxious and wore a that because having one asked one to stand at this is we president in the end none of us has ever had experience of Something Like d. S. Most of the population has not felt through the war or still so this is really new and people are adjusting companies are just being. Marked war on hold but still its its a difficult also not web that would be people and yes so we are waiting and the numbers are always more alarming ok well well talk about some of the restrictions that are being put in place a little bit later but army in geneva id like to talk to you about the case of its really why in your view is a Public Health expert have things got so bad in italy. Well to begin with. Italy has a. Lot of population and theyre more vulnerable and i think that the very easily started off testing as soon as they thought about it and they could it just wasnt apparent. The scale of it and there are several lessons that weve learned from china that only does becoming clearer now 1st of all. Even though china looks as if it contained or suppressed the epidemic by locking down in one hand investing depend a current thing that the whole country in china was placed on lockdown there were no one with allowed to travel anywhere if you wanted to cover the beijing you had disappointing for that good man to quarantine the 14 days now in italy you know looking down in a northern italy as as we were seeing is is unlikely to be as effective it could help in some way suppress some of the spread to switzerland 100 to geneva where i am just north of italy but at the same time and this is a virus which exposes all the flaws in the Healthcare System and you know some of the 1st people to get infected with Health Care Workers and it has an overpopulation then for example south korea which has a race in a number of cases infected but you know italy has 7 times the number of this so the virus itself exposes the flaws in Healthcare System the flaws in Infection Prevention control and the vulnerabilities of the population that it is infecting so here we have a really vulnerable Elderly Population or population with a lot of crime abilities and the virus is bringing that to the fore ok marilee so if i can ask you about how this appears to have started in italy i know your newspaper has done a lot of work on this and i believe its all been traced to one town of 16000 people in number d. And also it seems the local hospital might actually have spread the disease. Yeah but the problem here is that and its happening i think everywhere in europe and elsewhere in the u. S. That we dont have a case derail patient 0 so we know the 1st person that got infected but we still dont know today who from who it took the virus so that a huge problem and thats the problem that every country is facing right now so it happening called on your knees most down at any one time detected flora quite a while until the guy was. 38 and got 3 seek and then they tested him and then they discovered that he got on a mattress but in the meanwhile you know the old that was infected that and the book elation around him also he had a very. Strong social life so he had gone down america on the map so many people in the restaurants and from there are you know it was almost unstoppable and i assume in those early stages that the fight was so much is on known add some dress to the scare factor in all this i mean in some ways its almost the opposite so in the beginning of theres a lot of unknowns i think our human mind is very well equipped to of kind of keeping any type of threat at bay so most people when they hear about the virus the 1st time when they hear about the spread of it maybe in Different Countries and government is urging you to do small sacrifices in your daily knife most people will not be very villain to do that because they feel that day will be far and i think a what you know from my research but also from research from others is that people are very good a kind of neglecting on vaunted information as long as they can so i think what you can see in most countries very much much as with the human mind every in the beginning a very reluctant to give up anything to secor find something to invest in. A bit more effort in order to kind of. Increase the greater good so i think in the beginning the unknown extreme in hanss our tendency to kind of reject anything that leads us to invest more effort or to kind of threaten us a little bit morally so i dont want to get too political here but there is of course a political element to this and there is the sort of historic backdrop the historic tussle in italy between the regions and the capital row house that played out yet thats been a problem. Moneygall point of view and also the political handling of the situation because the every region has you know can susies whole new epidemiologic. Things that as the states and and the same with the politics so the last 5 between the roman government and the regions that was about to lock down a lot of the governance of the beneteau one of the biggest region affected by by the virus said that the match there are too strong so i really think that of course italy is especially difficult because of the story you mentioned but i also think that you it will be difficult everywhere in the western war to end so i guess that italy is really a test case of for everyone else watching because its so much easier for a central dollar man to use an employee tyrion government to to put in plays that tapestry and you know it commend them for an open society its much more difficult you say a test case and a case study for many countries around the world and some of that test is how much you should contain people of whats your message to them its worth telling you that one of the leaders of italy is governing coalition try to pass on messages. Nicola. Betty called for calm in a video he recorded while he was on isolation at home after a week ago posting this photo on instagram say lets not lose our habits we cant shut down milan or its really our economy is stronger than fear lets go for an aperitif a coffee or a pizza so thats one of the key political leaders who now has the corona virus how does that add an address to the staff factor in all of this well i think its for governments for how foreign is ations its a very fine balance to kind of trying to get people are hurt and induce a sense of urgency that they should stay at home for instance that they maybe should avoid going to Public Places that they should wash their hands regularly and so forth so they need to induce a little sense but then he did dont want to have it kind of slip into a panic so i think in so i think thats a very fine line dees organizations have to set so i know on hand what you know is that if. Officials stress how uncertain it is that for instance if you go out you might be fine others might be fine if you stress that uncertainty people become very optimistic and they kind of feel like wow things will be fine i dont have to do anything and on the other hand if you want to kind of end up the panic button a little bit then emphasising on the harm of the disease then this will increase more panics you can see in italy more deaths reported you might have heard of somebody who you know who died who rose and in danger of dying now divel being of other people becomes is at the forefront of peoples minds and now people become very pessimistic and introduce more panic mode which has ironically some benefits because it gets people to be more preventive to me to be more precautious in their actions but obvious. For individual feeling a sense of panic going to the empress of midsomer around them is not great for their wellbeing but of course it also has a desire stress effect on the stock markets which are plummeting on the oil price which is crashing. Back to you just quickly tell us what the restrictions are that you are now face so case that the lockdown harry out which is not really a quarantine area like han but still there are restrictions so you cannot go in and out huge area and 16 provinces. But the thing is that its very happy to the Single Person because you need to step certification to go out and enough and of course they are doing checks to and there are some checkpoints somewhere but not everywhere so i mean if you get caught then you respect even to go to jail but still they cannot consult everyone ok but what can you can you for example go to a restaurant can you go to work can you go shopping at the moment ok you know. Our restaurants are open only until 6 am and then their roles so you can all go to a restaurant in the evening and last so the subs are closed. The others are close what we hear there is our roles that all Sports Events are being just made it closed doors so without bobby without an audience and. We you cannot go to jeem you can go to work but you know only so some companies are working from that everyone is looking for other companies that are you know doing some see if it is so that there are less people around in your offices and they those are the restrictions now in italy do you think they are sensible restrictions and what should other countries make of them. Coming back to the Lessons Learned from china it was the same there where as in no one was allowed out anyone who was out had to wear a mask people were strongly discouraged from leaving the home and in some bases werent allowed to. Now as melissa pointed out in government in open societies can enforce those measures i think its deeply important for the government to actually tell the truth and there to be no spin no political profiteering because public trust depends on Public Health depend a public trust so in order for those you know those conditions way to be effective. Then you have to be at a trust that they are going to work and in reality they will work to a limited degree. But you know the problem you know again coming back to the patient 0 we dont know the patient here in any country we dont know in china we still dont know the origin of the virus we dont know the animal. And we do know that the Health Care Workers in hospitals are quite often cite cell transmission and thats exactly what happened a number of the and there were several and you know in the 1st week there were several 5 i think patients and 5 Health Care Workers infected and so this is an ongoing problem until we get a handle on that type of transmission and the transmission that we can see the invisible transmission that is. Passed on in as one of the 1st persons did when youre not aware that school kids. Are not going to die from this disease but they certainly can get sick they wont have a favor its much harder to detect and thats why of course you know its just taken the drastic step out of the schools so any however so i mean let me ask you about the lesson for other countries from this because in italy is used see the public gatherings have been severely restricted and yet in other countries very close by youre in switzerland you know the situation in from swear gatherings of over a 1000 people are banned germany where andreas comes from originally theyre still having football matches potentially with tens of thousands of people attending here in the u. K. Opening in a matter of hours one of the biggest horseracing festivals in the world the Cheltenham Festival is going ahead im told over the days of that theres about a quarter of 1000000. 00 people attending if you had an elderly relative what would you say to them should day in france in the u. K. In germany should they attend sporting events of their over 70 whats your thoughts. Well thats a very specific way of protecting people and yes i think it is important i mean all of these things are taking place as you say in the u. K. And in germany and to some degree thats really helpful for population the main were human and we really you know we are a social people so its very very hard this far this is not a war you know a disaster where its a spirit of the bits and we can you know get together to to combat it because that is one of the ways the virus wins in the u. S. Of course is much madness is i college in a the basketball season and its you know this is a a very difficult time for lots of countries. And i think we do have to protect you know the groups that we know are particularly vulnerable and remembering that theres been a lot of times when this virus has been compared to spanish flu which had a amounted to a of 2 percent now in italy with more tax rate of 5 percent which is pretty high. And what that what people forget about spanish flu is that a lot of people died not from the virus but from the bacterial pneumonia that followed so i think we have to start getting really smart about how to protect those who are vulnerable those who have either come abilities like cancer or in question and say ok lets lets anticipate they might need antibiotics for bacteria disease lets make sure they have thats it up for nutrition lets make sure they have excellent care lets think about how we might want to you know quarantine or provide extra protection now to residential villages one of the reassuring things about this virus is that kids disease be protected by virtue of being a kid which is great thats not what we saw in 2001 and find 20009 and pregnant women were in a very much disadvantage or also because we saw. You know that their unborn babies for very much at risk thats not certain that we saw particularly inside as a troll sorry at least we had some posed pieces here where closing the schools makes good sense in many ways so that schools kids dont get it i think magically and then and then shared it particularly to grandparents and i mentioned can i stop for a moment because i noticed that you referred to the situation in the u. S. As being like march madness let me refer you to a comment that came from a chap called thomas for he was the Homeland Security advisor of the United States and he was that job for the beginning of the trumpet ministration and yet he has said this on twitter there is a clear lesson for economic advisors worried that School Closures and social distancing will lead to loss theres no advantage to being a late mover now its really will lose unrecoverable productivity and be too late to prevent peak disease spread and dress thats a former advisor of President Trump a President Trump coming out attacking the Democrat Party and saying everyone. Including the media is overreacting one assumes it doesnt help the situation if everyone is not on the same page well i think theyre i mean there are several potential consequences for that i think if the situation turns dire and the us then i think the Us Government would have to have a somewhat of a future and i think just because your 400 highlighted how important trust this if youre on a mind that trusts how then youre react to that i think and so they ever be i think. A negative consequence of not of conflict now say oldish is not a problem and it turns out it is much more of a problem i think in uncertain situations to any leader and to think this is what. Was said before and its important if its uncertain to say that it is uncertain because once things turn around then you lost the people you lost the trust so for instance if you say this is not a problem as it is as if it would be certain and then it turns out that its actually a problem then you kind of lost people so i think one of the recriminations weve psychologists always have to kind of highlight this is not a certain situation it is uncertain the set of consequences and that people make their minds up annie is there a nightmare scenario for all of europe and weve got to think about the whole world here that in europe italy is not the worst its just the 1st. Yes and we we really dont know what you know this. You know uncertainty is a defining characteristic of any pathogen and pathogens and so are a political but epidemics are not the main pathogens that distinguish between right and left the predicted is in democracies but epidemics to the politicization can be very important and often is in thing a point as we know it doesnt help but you know this is the 1st time weve seen in a women beginning of a nascent pandemic and this is our 1st experience of that we have no global we have no european immunity we have no protection we have no treatment and so you know what we did i think with what we doing again to try and learn some lessons from china is that china was able to use of shipping almost 50000. 00 extra Health Care Workers now we cant do that here in the u. S. Cant do it there and were going to see this sort of evolution of the virus as it becomes endemic with the around transmission ok marilyn seeing that as she was sure this merrily supplier now around the world having seen things close up in italy what do you think the lessons are. The lessons are that you have to be careful from the beginning and start taking measure from the beginning because the program may need that he also mentioned the need for a thing or if its the governor last year and also the leader on the party who got sick and the week before he was in milano having us brits and. The thing was anybody that we had the 1st week of panic and then the 2nd week because everyone was so scared about the economic consequences of what was going on they said milano to the nano goes on you know and so. And to bonaire snakes said that everything was i was going to be fine and it wasnt ok so not really so im going to stop you there and go back to annie because this has been a really quite depressing conversation anyone whos watching this around the world is going to be worried whats your final thought as the Public Health professional here on the panel. We do have something to look forward to china has as almost finished a trial of the drug when does a via which seems to be a effective in treating people said thats good news thats going to be a mile marker as i said kids the fact that kids and a protected by virtue of being a kid thats useful i think one of europes and the greatest strong point here is that were still a very social you know conglomeration and we need to member that were protecting people not borders and thats a fast wrong that you know focus point then simply raising the drawbridge and setting travel bans and travel restrictions we know what works we know that we need to be out to test people we need to you know gather trace people and we need to better look after people and we have to be at the tick Health Care Workers because once we lose then then were in serious danger and we need then i had to take evelyn with clips i think that we are actually learning were going to have a lot more data in the next few raikes ok well thank you thanks to our 3 experts marleys of mumbo in milan professor and the sparrow in geneva and dress capice with me in london there are lots of our knowns out there but hopefully what we know about small crucially what we dont yet know are a bit clearer after this Program Coverage of the corona virus continues around the clock analogise era and on aljazeera dot com where you can watch this program any time you want you can make your comments or suggestions of what we should discuss next time around for me and all the team in doha in london keep washing your hands also using. 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