A politically motivated trial polls indicate president putin is on course to win easily liberians are set to go to the polls in a president ial runoff former football star george way is taking the countrys Vice President joseph. Those are the headlines the news continues here on aljazeera inside story ill see in a half an hour. Defeated but is it destroyed two thousand and seventeen the year of victory was declared over ice still or where have all its fighters gone what will happen to its ideology what about the people that used to rule over this isnt science story. Alone welcome to the show im sam is a than whether you call it ice so i cis or simply dash the sonic state of iraq the levant was on the back foot in two thousand and seventeen in a conflict involving several countries lives homes and centuries old artifacts in iraq and syria were destroyed i still try to export violence and fear to Africa Europe and the us of the year ends with proclamations of victory over the group in both iraq and syria but as i saw really finished take it back to two thousand and fourteen thats when the group declared its socalled caliphate naming a buckle baghdadi as the leader of muslims everywhere eisel took control of about thirty percent of iraq during the next two years but it started losing ground at the end of two thousand and fifteen the first significant win for the iraqi army was romandie six months later the army retired from eisel an operation which lasted little more than a month the battle for mosul talked longer after nearly nine months of fighting the iraqi army with u. S. Support regained the city in june since then the focus has been on getting rid of iso from smaller towns and villages around morsel and on december the ninth iraqs Prime Minister officially declared the country eisel free. Isis caliphate was meant to stretch from eastern iraq to western syria taking over most of both countries but i still suffered heavy losses in syria two this year in october u. S. Bank Syrian Forces seized the rocket from the armed group the city was isolated defacto capital the victory in iraq came at a heavy price more than a thousand civilians were killed in the battle dozens of eisel fighters have believed to have fled the city and avoided capture lets bring our panel into the show joining us in the discussion today we have someone who mccloud from the Arab Lawyers Association in london via skype from st johns bre in vermont rob ford the former u. S. Ambassador to syria and. Chatham house also in the british capital welcome to you all if i could start with so where have all the fun i still find it is gone i mean that even if you add up the claims i dont think you can account for all the tens of thousands of its rank and file yeah i think its right. As an organization continues to exist sure its lost a lot of its territory at its peak it controlled up to half of syria and one third of iraq so its lost a lot of the citizens a lot of the fighters have have you know died in the battles a lot of the fighters have are in prison a tradition judicial sort of prisons as well as sort of state prisons and a lot of them have escaped there are pockets theyre looking to move house where through the region so i mean it really does depend but i think its an important point to make that this is not the end of the organization the organization will continue to exist it simply going underground and its part of the cyclical process of this organization is not linear it doesnt have a start and it but it has transitions between. Controlling territory and then losing territory all rights are interesting words there is not the end of this organization rob ford in vermont let me read to you here what the u. S. President on trump said on december the nineteenth he says quote as you know weve won in syria weve won in iraq similar sentiment echoed a day earlier by the russian president Vladimir Putin who said quote in just over two years Russias Armed forces in the syrian army have defeated the most battle hardened group of International Terrorists have some of these leaders been a little premature in declaring that this group is finished. Oh i think definitely its premature to declare total and final victory i think i was right not sad. There slavic state is moving into a new mode and theyre moving from control of territory mode controlled cities mode into an insurgency was something they were talking about doing even a year and a half ago and thats a strategy that they have a mare implementing and now step by step well what sort of insurgency do you envisage emerging rob i think we could compare it in some ways to what the Islamic State of iraq was doing say between two thousand and nine and and eleven the group was not nearly as strong back then in many ways very think they have more fighters left now but it involved everything from. Hit and run ambush attacks in western iraq in on bar problems in particular. Targeted assassinations of key security and political figures and a general effort to in a sense show that they still existed and to deny full control of towns and roads by iraqi forces backed them and that enabled them to sort of keep going and as events in syria then. Got worse for the Syrian Government there was a bigger open space for them to organize and recruit and they staged the major comeback of two thousand and thirteen fourteen ok so regrouping hit and run tactics where can they regroup now if as the Iraqi Government has said they are in control the iraqi forces are in control of the towns the cities and even the deserts at this point i think whats missing from this debate is really the first of all is to. And whats eisel who are they do is there such a thing this is number one number two i think whats missing from the debate is that everybodys dealing with the symptoms rather than finding the causes of girls and i question the only other someone about the causes in a second but i wanted to get into sort of the landscape at this point before we go into the causes that led to them to arise i mean do they have the ability to regroup right now anywhere if if you believe the statements coming out of some of the governments well i dont think the intention of feisal was to occupy land although they did simply because maliki gave them mosul and the rest of it the fighting infighting within western iraq allowed them to do so in syria and they teamed up with other groups whether its the free army or whether other groups and then before they took over it is not in the plan to have land at the end of the day they end up with some land which they controlled for a variety of reasons but that is not the policy of them they dont work on that basis and i think the whole thing is based on our job training malikis gazey i saw gave i saw mosul. Well if you want to check with the iraqis this is what the iraqis are saying both on the government level and on the peoples level and certainly the muso level but in your report you are talking about taking over. And fallujah and mosul and the rest of it in fact nobody took nothing they just simply destroyed the cities and they made the inhabitants of few Million People as a few g. s and if this is taking over this is exactly like shooting a plane which has been hijacked to get rid of the hijackers so it wasnt taking over its created now more people who are aggrieved from any iraq and in syria it doesnt matter whether the grievance came from the government or from the americans when you have airplanes killing civilians against the Geneva Convention whether its the american planes or the iranians or the iraqis or the syrians at the end of the day what was happening in the cities all of them in syria and in iraq its destroying the cities killing the civilians under the pretext that theyre getting rid of the eisel which nobody knows anything about it other than you have a picture on television where people with beard and carrying a black flag so they dont carry the black flag theyre not i saw we dont know what it is in the west we call them terrorists in these areas were calling them eisel because theyre there so when you have a terrorist act in the u. S. For instance if hes a if hes a muslim and i sell if hes a white man it isnt ok i think perhaps the listens we dont have someone from the Iraqi Government we should we should point out the im sure he would contest the allegation that he gave most whole two to weisel of course you know cause they argue could be made that the Iraqi Armed Forces didnt do a very good job of fighting isis the when they rolled in however let me pick up on some of the points i think obama is going as it is and is a sentiment one. Often hears from some of the sunni populations of both syria and iraq which feel shall we say slightly marginalized by the existing regimes there has anything changed to get into the causes run out as anything changed to make sunni populations at this point feel more integrated and welcomed and like they belong in the existing power structures of Central Governments. Well i think its different for each of the different contexts fundamentally what gives rise to groups like isis is the withdrawal or the absence of the state so the Central Government can no longer really legitimately represent or is unable to really respond to the needs of some of the citizens so its this crisis of representation where you know allows the vacuum to emerge where isis can come up in syria and iraq and libya and other parts of the middle east that are going through these transitions so those are what you know you could refer to as the root causes since two thousand and three in iraq i think the argument if i may who should i think we are given that people like. Is that its sometimes deliberate this is not just as a result of the sort of slow. Collapse of Central Authority is the result of specific policies if you listen some of the iraqi sunni leaders for example talk about the anti terrible the targeting of sunni populations for albert to unrest imprisonment and so on and so forth that make people feel like the power structure doesnt really represent them well thats part of it sure part of it is this kind of so many issue where after two thousand and three many sunnis felt like the government and was dominated by iran and a shia government that was persecuting the sunnis but you need to go i think into another layer more than that because thats a very superficial layer because youve also had sunni leaders and kurdish leaders and shia leaders whove all been very successful all become very powerful and wealthy after two thousand and three fundamentally what it really is is a group of citizens who dont feel like anyone represents them you know in the governor and the governor and of. There were sunni leaders who failed their people there are sunni tribal leaders who have also failed their leaders so i think superficially it is true that you could say that this is a sunni shia probably i think its important for us to kind of delve deeper into understanding fundamentally what it is that syrians iraqis libyans others fundamentally what they want and when you see that youll see actually it is rare. Presentation it is the government to provide for them that means that theyre that they want so i think yeah far you could say first of all i wouldnt get the conspiracies as to give it away because i think thats a bit. Of an exaggeration surely malikis policies led to it because he was disenfranchising many sunnis sure but at the same time i think that there are problems across the board that we need to look into and those are the roots lets bring in the perspective we could have rob ford is a former u. S. Ambassador to syria but im sure youre familiar with the situation in the region as a whole how much awareness concern is that amongst u. S. Policymakers do you think right now in at least how the u. S. Allies itself with the Iraqi Government in the fight against isis when it comes to the issue of well is this ally really doing enough to stop this from continuing to be a vicious circle that sucks in american troops and hardware again and again in terms of reintegrating some of these i think the american policy makers especially those working on iraq have a pretty good understanding of the dynamics that renate was just talking about you know people like brett mcgurk who worked on iraq and now syria as well brad has been working on iraq more or less continuously since two thousand and three. But in a sense the American Administration is torn in two directions theres the direction which would address some of the concerns of both and are not talked about regarding the disempowerment lack of Political Representation and a need to address Community Needs that i mean theres a group in washington that understands that very well but we have a president who really does not want to get into nation building and trump and in fact spoke exactly to that point with the end railing. The National Security strategy at the beginning of this past week and so where the administration will come out. Is not entirely clear yet i think people like madis the secretary of defense James Madison they get it they understand but theyre going to be going against a white house that in general does not want to get too involved in these conflicts last thing id say but there is no getting involved. Role i mean is it is the only choice between getting involved or not getting involved could the u. S. The critics might say apply pressure in other ways i mean well i think guy is trying but is receiving much ahead with elections at a time in which you know perhaps up to three Million People may not be able to top dissipate most of them some of these that leave a big chunk of your palm population feeling slightly marginalized from it well first of all the americans dont control when elections are going to be held in iraq that have a lot of in friends and people. We do not have nearly that kind of influence im to be realistic this is not hollywood in the real world the americans cannot compel the iraqi to hold elections in one day or another thats the real world. But what youre seeing is the americans are in a sense trying to do a little with have to in too much so theyve left two thousand soldiers military forces in syria for example in Eastern Syria and they say they need them there over the long term theyre not talking about short term talking about long term they need them there to prevent a return of the Islamic State enforced likewise right in iraq. Somewhere in the neighborhood of four to five thousand american troops on the ground and theyre going to leave them there ok you know who are going to let the Iraqi Government to do training and frankly im sure they will have an intelligence function. Well again ok make sure rob if i may that i said thats right ok i can see someone in the hall shaking his head in disagreement i want to give him a chance to come back him so i have something to say first of all i think the american policy is based on that experience post two thousand and three which shows that they have absolutely no idea about iraq preet two thousand and three this is number one and thats where the fault theyve created a situation which is went bad and that trying to just solve it based on that fact this number one number two the idea that the u. S. Has no influence on iraq is a little bit too tall for me to swallow because the americans of course they dont have the soldiers they dont have the army cetera but theyre backing the government that is putting pressure on them they are supplying money that are supplying arms they are doing all the things to support the government in the same time they could influence the government in taking some action ok let me give rob ford i can see wants to come back in let me give robert chance go ahead rob come back in and then well move on with all due respect. I think he needs to understand two things number one iraq in two thousand seventeen two thousand and eighteen is not the same country as iraq in say two thousand or two thousand and one or two thousand you know are there similarities out there deep pool or social construct of course but the country has evolved you know what of ways number one look at the role of the shia compared politically compared to what it was three two thousand and three i mean there is the country is not the same second i really have to say people who i didnt say americans that no incidents but the americans do not control iraq politically anywhere near the way. About Saddam Hussein ill give you that thats a coalition and was. A most of all you. Need to remember that there is a more important player in iraq then the United States and that player is iran oh i see know it right here on hands or trying let me lay let me raise a point which the boss mentioned earlier how about just being careful with civilian casualties i mean thats a point which a number of Coalition Forces have been criticized during the most whole campaign of recklessly endangering civilian life due to military operations surely things like that you know Coalition Forces and americans and others do have some control over. Theres a distinction between. Giving political orders and military operations are not same thing with respect to civilian casualties i would not defend the way the americans have been bombing in places like iraq or problems and you know what province the New York Times did what i thought was a very accurate and a very detailed assessment of how the americans do their targeting and the mistakes they regularly made and how slow they are to do both accurate investigations and then to acknowledge when they make mistakes and i think that is a problem the u. S. Military is going to need to address more seriously not just in the middle east but in other places where it operates like theyre all right well i still has built up operations outside iraq in syria the groups taking advantage of the political chaos in libya for example to set up camp that is going to attack in libya as u. N. Backed government and the u. S. Has been bombing eisel training grounds in the country i still is also active in egypt the group bombed the sufi mosque in the sinai province in november killing more than three hundred muslim worshippers in the Government Forces have been under attack as well i saw has killed dozens of soldiers this year. Well i guess one of the things you can look at will we see this group or not try and perhaps move out of iraq in syria and set up camp somewhere else in other words will we try and see an attempt to establish the socalled caliphate somewhere else in the world well i think there are two things to kind of say here and its really the two different types of people who join isis. There are the locals people who have local interest people who have local grievances who really are interested in how locally they can prosper so isolate its roots says to the other three the core has been the iraqi leadership the iraqis who have problems with their iraqi country the iraq as a country so they may not these opportunists may not be as interested in lets say whats happening in libya whats happening in europe or somewhere else however you do have particularly since two thousand and eleven and the opening of this sort of syria charter this more of this internationalist globalist mind that. Most my many of the foreign fighters would fit into this camp these are some of the more ideological fighters and so they will try and kind of move around they might move from iraq to north africa from syria to north africa but in each one of these contexts i think its important to note that its a local grievance so you have your local populations and local opportunist who are looking to take advantage of the collapse of these states sort of govern or support was run by some ideologues i suppose who may be able to kind of create the flag create the banner and you know use the umbrella of what the symbols are all right let me read an opposing opinion here if i said friend sman from the rubin center for research this was on december twenty second and hes saying that that which gave rise to eyes is in the lists globalization the breakdown of the syrian and iraqi states access to abandon military equipment a ready pool of angry recruits for an extremist with expertise in social media and so on no longer exists in the same form three years after ice is reached its peak so what do you agree with that analysis. No i no i dont think so this is this is he said the middle east and their front lines basically since. It is a different place because there at the present moment all these issues which he raised which i doubt correct but they were not the cause they were the instruments but the problem we have is always we are concentrating on the activists and not the causes if you bomb a country and people for quarter of a century you out unlikely to get people to be unhappy and if you are unhappy you do whatever you can some people will resort to terrorism inside or outside and some people will just pray and bad god that they would be saved all right the last rest not week weve got about a minute about less that want to take that point back to rob the Human Rights Watch on december the fifth issued a report which is document thing people being held in inhumane conditions thousands of people. Arrested on suspicion of being i saw men design flimsy evidence torture i think goes on to warn this will impede the future of iraq is this not a something that lease the americans however much influence you think they do or dont have could they not say we dont want our arms and support going to a government unless it changes that sort of behavior this may be a area where the americans may have a little more influence if they try to use it but they also have to be willing to stop a rom. Or a Media Publications in addition to Human Rights Watch there should be a goal out of germany did a devastating story about the abuses committed by Iraqi Security forces in areas where there was fighting against isis buzz feed has also done some excellent reporting on this. I was in iraq last week and i raised these very issues and i was assured that there was. Investigations and that Iraqi Security force. Members have actually been in jail right that i have. Myself only to stories about barack and i im afraid that they need to make this right im sorry we are out of time my apologies gamble lets end it there and thank our guests are robert ford and renard months or thank you to fortune can see the show again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion head over to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story can also join the conversation on twitter the handle there is at a. J. Inside story from me sam is a dad and the whole team here for now its a good buy. New yorkers are very receptive to al jazeera because it is such an International City they are very interested in that global perspective that al jazeera provides. You are making very pointed remarks when theyre on line the main u. S. Response to drug use and the drug trade over the last fifty years has been to criminalize or if you join us on sad no evil person just wakes up of it in the morning and says i want to cover the world and all things they say is a dialogue and that could be was leading to some of the confusion online about people saying they dont actually know whats going on join the colobus conversation at this time on aljazeera across the paddy fields appears the stream of people they dont know with heavy bags and carrying small children they say theyre escaping from the smoke in the distance the follow the path to the border and come across a group of. Bare feet caked in mud they tell us they arrived in bangladesh the day before need to return to find the rest of their families who couldnt make the journey that is the last Bangladeshi Border security post and beyond that where you see the smoke billowing as me and mark now the journey between the two countries is just a boat ride across the river that takes twenty minutes which is why weve seen dawson several henjak who made it to the safety of bangladesh trying to go back to say family members that left behind for norma hamilton his extended family this path leads to safety going to get it should we struggled so much at all we want to stay here live here and die here in bangladesh. Im not matheson in doha the top stories on aljazeera around a Million People have been a vacuum
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.