Gas attack in qana. Somalias former president also put as money that will be tried on corruption charges on friday a judge ruled in favor of a request by the countrys prosecutor to charge him with bribery and tax avoidance totaling several million dollars. On counting the cost of italys wealthy Northern Region safe seats of more autonomy who are the forces reshaping european politics how might chinas new leadership line up the economy plus why trade is the Hong Kong Stock Exchange just saying bye bye to the back country because at this time on aljazeera. Emotions are high in barcelona. The intense Political Drama as catalonia pushes for independence but can the region afford to go it alone what are the economic costs of the split from spain and why is the European Union so cold to the idea this is inside story. Hello and welcome im patty kahane events are moving quickly in both madrid and barcelona the political situation has been confusing but this much is certain catalonia is drive for independence has already had an impact on the regions economy tourism has dropped off sharply more businesses are moving their head offices out of the area very and political instability and financial uncertainty and of catalonia does eventually become independent the costs could be huge we begin with aljazeera andersons whos in barcelona. Here in the Regional Parliament in barcelona with much emphasis on the political crisis and the risks of social unrest many businesses right across the region are getting worried that there may be neglect on the economy with Political Developments the figures dont read well sixteen hundred companies have moved their registrations out of catalonia since october and it doesnt stop there the banks are following suit the Economic Growth outlook for the whole of the country has been reviewed downwards for spain for twenty eighteen because of social unrest in this region and also there are reports that the tourist industry. Since the referendum took place there is one estimate from one Tourism Agency that the figures are fifteen percent down just to give you an idea a twenty percent decline in the Tourism Industry would really hurt more than a billion euros would be lost if that took place and so everyone is now really concerned about whether or not the e. U. Position could actually damage things even more if they lose the euro here that will be a colossal blow that is we understand some form of think tank in place all economists looking at the whole regional picture in terms of what happens in secession but many businesses say hard times are going to be ahead not just across the political divide and the security divide but particularly with the economy. So lets bring in our guests in brussels we have peter clarke the head of the Brussels Office of open youre up in barcelona we have sonia and a lecturer at the university of barcelona and in dublin via skype Michael Keating professor of the university of aberdeen and the author of the book the independence of scotland welcome to you all sonia i want to start with you since youre there in the heart of it we just heard those statistics anderson and they sound terrifying have you seen the impact on the ground is the economy suffering. It is thats what it looks like were just saying many m. P. s already living holliman in a run away fast it was for the. Parties that have left the Parliament Room which are the opposition is thought there are many official cars coming in very fast and it seems they are going to pick up all the m. P. s who have voted in favor to get away from here as many are fearing Spanish Police could and. Parliament. Peter let me ask you this we know that it would cost catalonia if they took this step and tried to succeed for a secede from spain what would the impact be on spain and broader europe of course on the short term discussion of the struction zora very closely you could make a case that a an independent gets alone you could very well survive if its bigger than many Member States of course more competition in taxation in europe in regulation in the long term is a good thing but of course a very important condition for independence and secession to be an economic success is that it happened speace fully and thats not clear at all to moment unfortunately it looks like both sides are books and so are books in themselves into more extremist positions and thats very worrying frankly michael i wanted to ask you this because there was one study by the dutch bank i n g that the financial impacts of this movement if it is successful would far eclipse even the dire forecast were hearing on brecks it do you youve studied these independents movements are they that costly. It depends exactly what policies are going to be followed and i actually dont agree that competition and regulation would be a good thing theres a tendency for independent. Stations well. Force generals the problem with the guidelines that you mentioned independent not. Published i dont trust with a situation where there was no more or less what kind of economic independence. And of course its entirely keeping the european and spanish markets in the short term of course. There is a cost because the destruction of farms are already. Sonia i want to get back to you because you are there on the ground the developments are moving very quickly obviously is there a palpable fear there about whats happening and what could happen. I think the fear is here and its actually quite rational. Maybe not fearful. Sorry for these retarded again but fear for the unknown for want will happen when you begin. With all of the states allowance which is hospice in this case here everything is uncertain and no one knows what is going to happen its very different from the scottish case where cameron said ok i would like you to stay bought i was here your claim and i will follow. Referendum we havent had that case here has brought into a very traumatic situation where now. Whatever it happens it will be very negative at least in the short term or thats how it looks like im going to. Go ahead sorry. But elements finish your thought just i would say more the scared are worried for the uncertain thats my china my impression that list. And i want to ask all of you to weigh in on this because if you look at this it is six you look at what catalonia would have to go through to actually become its own country i mean its dad is at normas it needs to get loans from spain it doesnt have to like its own air Traffic Control system border controls it wouldnt have any sort of trading treaties so do you take it all of you please weigh in on this first were going to go to peter peter do the people understand whats. The potential cost here of course to to create your own state it takes in these a long time you need to go through many procedures but you know have seen this in europe in the last twenty thirty years take for example slovakia which was so poorer than than the Czech Republic indeed in the first few years of slovakian independence politicians there have followed leftwing polities policies but eventually the populations have voted in free market liberals and a half. Agreed that there should be a flat tax and this was one of the recipes which helped slovakia to grow enormously they have basically then during that period bypassed all their neighbors so i think smaller countries are forced to eventually adopt economic policies that promotes competitiveness there is no alternative for them whereas bigger countries can sort of afford to have big redistributive bureaucratic governments in place no again the big condition is that happens that everything happens peacefully so indeed if spain does not agree with cut through an independent risk when theres a major challenges ahead ok michael quickly to you if you could just your thoughts on the. Well you would be essential for catalonia if youre a maid within the european Single Market thats what makes independence while both are small kind of trees if it were agreed by spain the catalonia could become independent then it could stay in europe riposte spain will not agree to the strain is totally opposed to that and for wed end up in their kind of limbo of catalonia could end up declaring itself independent spain but not enjoying complete access to the European Market so its so new to you is that the biggest fear right there because could you wake up tomorrow and not be a citizen of spain or the you. I thank the fans are all to their. With just to be aware i mean maybe not those of us where can and who have followed but the much of the society seem to have just been aware of potential economic effects the past two weeks when weve begun to see all these Companies Move in find to all this punish it is and also copy caputos that many banks are claiming that their clients are requesting their capitals to be moved to. A condo or other basis so people are just beginning to understand all the potential effects of. Succession and you know look at you when youre all across europe but catalonia theyre not alone in this so this isnt just about this region this country the catalans and of course not alone in their desire to rewrite the map of europe and that perhaps perhaps explains why the European Union refuses to get involved a referendum on Scottish Independence narrowly failed in twenty fourteen and there are long standing independence claims in belgium while lonia region and on the island of corsica which is part of france but the list of places in europe with separatist movements is actually much longer and the e. U. Has consistently kept its distance peter let me go to you first the European Union did not get involved they say there theyre not in the position to negotiate if the European Union cannot be more of an effective force in these sorts of disputes and weve just seen these disputes are all over europe what is the future of the e. U. Why have the e. U. I think its a very wide use for do you not to get involved here this is very sensitive this is political and the European Union is not a political entity whatever mr you may wish. You is fundamentally a very thick a body that is very good in making sure that countries reduce barriers to treat its very good in that it should focus on that every time it gets involved in politics things go wrong you know that said i dont think it would be about id for the leaders of european governments to express their opinion and indeed the belgian Prime Minister has been very outspoken that there should be dialogue whatever happens with catalonia and spain should should have a dialogue this should not be a lot. In any way so new you made a face there looks like you want to respond to that but i technically agree with peter but what i tell my students is one thing is to be realistic which means the European Union is the union of states and therefore they are going to trying to seek the benefit of all the states so it is quite logical that from a rational perspective but they are not going to support this assertion as almost every european country has a region and as you just mentioned that could potentially follow our plan not said it is also to that europe is becoming much bigger project that only the economic climate and thats what they want citizens to believe so many of us are believing video its more and weve said that also with the refugee crisis where many of us felt the safe from the European Unions behavior so many others feel very european are claiming maybe not want to take positions but to at least enforce dialogue somehow or to really ask the Spanish Government to be more open and flexible because even if you just want to go through the legal and very very very strict structure you do have a problem here that its not going to be solved just by imposing or imposing a police force and because of this. Pendens that peter was just mentioning a conflict. As a conflict for the whole europe so i do think that somehow maybe the commission by the pond him and or someone in europe should do something about it and at least. A place where both parties could feel comfortable to speak and to trying to find common points for a solution because otherwise this is just going to go and get protected and stay there for a long time michael let me head over to you are we are do you think the european leaders are looking at this we just showed the map it is everywhere this is will not be the last one our leaders learning a lesson if they look at the different approaches between lets say the Prime Minister of the u. K. Versus how the Prime Minister of spain has responded to this. It is not everywhere there are two significant separatist movements in europe at risk auckland and at the lower that there arent any other ones there are thomas movements in italy and in belgium looking for more Self Government within the state but theres nowhere else in europe where independent support is almost forty percent so lets not exaggerate this clearly there was a difference in scotland because its long been recognised that United Kingdom is a union of nation with the British Government has been prepared to consider secession in the case of Northern Ireland and in the case of scotland partly a matter of the constitution which is much more relaxed in the u. K. Than this case of spain but its also an understanding of the nature of the state and thats where the European Union it really hasnt provided a space for these movements are looking for more autonomy but dont want independence and that is where catalonia is the sarah three b. They werent given that special status and so a large section not a majority but a lot of second account lines move towards independence so millions gone to scotland is going to the opportunity to remain connected with the european project they want to separate from the United Kingdom the problem at the moment is the United Kingdom is pulling them out of europe so those and there are problems on both sides in both cases here so peter let me ask you some point does the potential cost start to change the direction of these negotiations or not argue necessarily between the the people on the street im talking about the leadership of from both madrid and barcelona what does it take for them to say enough with this going back and forth and looking tough lets figure out how to how this ends how does what does it take to get there. Well it looks like the next step is spain will indeed today declare that the autonomy of catalonia is to a certain degree despite suspend that there have to be new elections within six months and understand it. The Spanish Government is looking into how many people they can actually arrest and they only arrest the Prime Minister of cuts alone and the ministers there also burke rats only the leadership of the police or other police so the very Dangerous Development is going on because of course some of the more heated elements in Catalonia Independence Movement may well not accept this so i think this is this is very worrying i would say the obvious compromise would be that both sides of course go to the table that also the catalans. Stressed that nothing is off the table that they are willing to discuss all their options down in the pendants and then the obvious compromise is that every region in spain receive the same tax powers that the basques already half which go actually much further than what theyve got to learn stuff and theres no reason why other spanish regions should also not get these tax power so i would think this is the most clean and reasonable compromise but im not sure how many people in spain would and in cuts alone youre by the way would agree with sonia do you think thats even really possible. Agreeing with this time i think the biggest problem of the because difficulty were saying as in any conflict is that both leaders chopped between not only the opposite party but inside the party this past week which. Was receiving a huge pressure from the most radical sectors. And the Spanish Society which were claiming to enforce suspension in a very harsh way and to be very strong against. And about taking over the control and at the same time weve seen mr puts them on the council and president also being chopped into those here who are. Some people inside his party saying please be cautious way to do it a bit tried to find a negotiated way so i think this is just not exceptional from catalonia as in any conflict that we see the difficult moment for many is whether to. Be opposition or to actually even face opposition in his own sector and very complex for them to manage and to do it in a peaceful way now what peter was saying is absolutely right. We are now going to go ahead with taking over control its the most probable thing again my biggest worry is holism. Going to react because were not ready to be taken over im afraid. Michael i want to ask you this because weve seen for example in the United States the rise of the far right. Donald trump were seen movements to secede as you mentioned with the its been debated in scotland obviously. Catalonia does this continue no. In europe if you think youre going to have problem yes you know Political Parties are great political alignments the great. Thing about this confrontation between the spanish and governments is these are both very weak governments very weak leaders. Gone through really terrible corruption scandals and the politicians are discredited and theyre using both sides as a means of shoring up their support finding a negotiated solution well the most difficult i would ask all three of you if i could longer term or how does this impact the European Union regardless of how it turns out whether they can actually sit down and negotiate or we see police and the rest move in so what is the long term impact on the European Union so you know let me start with you on that. I just think that your opinion and the impacts could just be if this gets somehow. Finished even if its in a bad situation but somehow finished but if its being present and we keep having all this International Media attention it could become something. Down which somehow the European Union in terms of intent and. Even a comically im going to go ahead with our. Like to hear what he has to say about a good point peter to you. So i think indeed this shows that people in europe really want more flexibility theres all of europe more demand for. Basically having more control over ones own fate i would say thats why we see all this populist movement in europe ordered from the left or the right this is what they sort of having common they feel theyre losing control over their own fate and indeed also the cuttle on the Scottish Independence movements they of course have always existed but in the last ten years they have become much more popular and again if we wonder how to deal with that i think we have to look at switzerland cicerone as a country where theres a lot of decentralization were the decentralized entities the continents can decide its over taxation policy to much larger extent than was the case elsewhere so and this really helps to keep switzerland together nobody in switzerland wants to wants to sort of secede from the country because the country allows a lot of flexibility people are generally happy with how swiss run this so if the e. U. Is wondering how can we become more stable they have to look at switzerland and if spain is wondering how can we become more stable they have to again also look at what the swiss have done michael last question the show is do you do you have any hope that these leaders would give up some of that all important power throughout europe i mean leaders dont tend to happily give up what they control. Well europe is all about cooling sovereignty its not about so coordinating the nation state its about tackling problems and commonness the same time youre getting a process of decentralization then so states are being transformed and thats what very well but if they european leaders simply back to the most intransigent elements in the Spanish Government that doesnt do europe a lot of credit it gives the impression that you know its taking a very very good position as it has almost there if you know im a cancer patient and that could we can support for the european project in the long run it was insensitive so these kinds of demands for more local control over Peoples Affairs this has been in fairy informant i want to thank my guest Peter Clottey sonya and bowles and Michael Keating very Interesting Times and we shall see what happens they he also looks for joining us and thank you for watching you can see this program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. 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